Comparison of different prediction models for the indication of implanted cardioverter defibrillator in patients with arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy

The added value of abnormal regional myocardial function for risk prediction in arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy

AIMS

A risk calculator for individualized prediction of first-time sustained ventricular arrhythmia (VA) in arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy (ARVC) patients has recently been developed and validated (www.ARVCrisk.com). This study aimed to investigate whether regional functional abnormalities, measured by echocardiographic deformation imaging, can provide additional prognostic value.

METHODS AND RESULTS

From two referral centres, 150 consecutive patients with a definite ARVC diagnosis, no prior sustained VA, and an echocardiogram suitable for deformation analysis were included (aged 41 ± 17 years, 50% female). During a median follow-up of 6.3 (interquartile range 3.1-9.8) years, 37 (25%) experienced a first-time sustained VA. All tested left and right ventricular (LV and RV) deformation parameters were univariate predictors for first-time VA. While LV function did not add predictive value in multivariate analysis, two RV deformation parameters did; RV free wall longitudinal strain and regional RV deformation patterns remained independent predictors after adjusting for the calculator-predicted risk [hazard ratio 1.07 (95% CI 1.02-1.11); P = 0.004 and 4.45 (95% CI 1.07-18.57); P = 0.040, respectively] and improved its discriminative value (from C-statistic 0.78 to 0.82 in both; Akaike information criterion change > 2). Importantly, all patients who experienced VA within 5 years from the echocardiographic assessment had abnormal regional RV deformation patterns at baseline.

CONCLUSIONS

This study showed that regional functional abnormalities measured by echocardiographic deformation imaging can further refine personalized arrhythmic risk prediction when added to the ARVC risk calculator. The excellent negative predictive value of normal RV deformation could support clinicians considering the timing of implantable cardioverter defibrillator implantation in patients with intermediate arrhythmic risk.

Arrhythmic risk stratification in arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy

Arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy (ARVC) is a heritable cardiomyopathy characterized by a predominantly arrhythmic presentation. It represents the leading cause of sudden cardiac death (SCD) among athletes and poses a significant morbidity threat in the general population. As a causative treatment for ARVC is still not available, the placement of an implantable cardioverter defibrillator represents the current cornerstone for SCD prevention in this setting. Thanks to international ARVC-dedicated efforts, significant steps have been achieved in recent years towards an individualized, patient-centred risk stratification approach. A novel risk calculator algorithm estimating the 5-year risk of arrhythmias of patients with ARVC has been introduced in clinical practice and subsequently validated. The purpose of this article is to summarize the body of evidence that has allowed the development of this tool and to discuss the best way to implement its use in the care of an individual patient.

Programmed Ventricular Stimulation as an Additional Primary Prevention Risk Stratification Tool in Arrhythmogenic Right Ventricular Cardiomyopathy: A Multinational Study

BACKGROUND

A novel risk calculator based on clinical characteristics and noninvasive tests that predicts the onset of clinical sustained ventricular arrhythmias (VA) in patients with arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy (ARVC) has been proposed and validated by recent studies. It remains unknown whether programmed ventricular stimulation (PVS) provides additional prognostic value.

METHODS

All patients with a definite ARVC diagnosis, no history of sustained VAs at diagnosis, and PVS performed at baseline were extracted from 6 international ARVC registries. The calculator-predicted risk for sustained VA (sustained or implantable cardioverter defibrillator treated ventricular tachycardia [VT] or fibrillation, [aborted] sudden cardiac arrest) was assessed in all patients. Independent and combined performance of the risk calculator and PVS on sustained VA were assessed during a 5-year follow-up period.

RESULTS

Two hundred eighty-eight patients (41.0±14.5 years, 55.9% male, right ventricular ejection fraction 42.5±11.1%) were enrolled. At PVS, 137 (47.6%) patients had inducible ventricular tachycardia. During a median of 5.31 [2.89-10.17] years of follow-up, 83 (60.6%) patients with a positive PVS and 37 (24.5%) with a negative PVS experienced sustained VA (P<0.001). Inducible ventricular tachycardia predicted clinical sustained VA during the 5-year follow-up and remained an independent predictor after accounting for the calculator-predicted risk (HR, 2.52 [1.58-4.02]; P<0.001). Compared with ARVC risk calculator predictions in isolation (C-statistic 0.72), addition of PVS inducibility showed improved prediction of VA events (C-statistic 0.75; log-likelihood ratio for nested models, P<0.001). PVS inducibility had a 76% [67-84] sensitivity and 68% [61-74] specificity, corresponding to log-likelihood ratios of 2.3 and 0.36 for inducible (likelihood ratio+) and noninducible (likelihood ratio-) patients, respectively. In patients with a ARVC risk calculator-predicted risk of clinical VA events <25% during 5 years (ie, low/intermediate subgroup), PVS had a 92.6% negative predictive value.

CONCLUSIONS

PVS significantly improved risk stratification above and beyond the calculator-predicted risk of VA in a primary prevention cohort of patients with ARVC, mainly for patients considered to be at low and intermediate risk by the clinical risk calculator.

Longitudinal Prediction of Ventricular Arrhythmic Risk in Patients With Arrhythmogenic Right Ventricular Cardiomyopathy

BACKGROUND

The arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy (ARVC) risk calculator stratifies risk for incident sustained ventricular arrhythmias (VA) at the time of ARVC diagnosis. However, included risk factors change over time, and how well the ARVC risk calculator performs at follow-up is unknown.

METHODS

This was a retrospective analysis of patients with definite ARVC and without prior sustained VA. Risk factors for VA including age, nonsustained ventricular tachycardia, premature ventricular complex burden, T-wave inversions on electrocardiogram, cardiac syncope, right ventricular function, therapeutic medication use, and exercise intensity were assessed at the time of 2010 Task Force Criteria based ARVC diagnosis and upon repeat evaluations. Changes in these risk factors were analyzed over 5-year follow-up. The 5-year risk of VA was predicted longitudinally using (1) the baseline ARVC risk calculator prediction, (2) the ARVC risk prediction calculated using updated risk factors, and (3) time-varying Cox regression. Discrimination and calibration were assessed in comparison to observed VA event rates.

RESULTS

Four hundred eight patients with ARVC experiencing 132 primary VA events were included. Matched comparison of risk factors at baseline versus at 5 years of follow-up revealed decreased burdens of premature ventricular complexes (-1200/day) and nonsustained ventricular tachycardia (-14%). Presence of significant right ventricular dysfunction and number of T-wave inversions on electrocardiogram were unchanged. Observed risk for VA decreased by 13% by 5 years follow-up. The baseline ARVC risk calculator's ability to predict 5-year VA risk worsened during follow-up (C statistics, 0.83 at diagnosis versus 0.68 at 5 years). Both the updated ARVC risk calculator (C statistics of 0.77) and time-varying Cox regression model (C statistics, 0.77) had strong discrimination. The updated ARVC risk calculator overestimated 5-year VA risk by an average of +6%.

CONCLUSIONS

Risk factors for VA in ARVC are dynamic, and overall risk for incident sustained VA decreases during follow-up. Up-to-date risk factor assessment improves VA risk stratification.

Importance of genotype for risk stratification in arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy using the 2019 ARVC risk calculator

AIMS

To study the impact of genotype on the performance of the 2019 risk model for arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy (ARVC).

METHODS AND RESULTS

The study cohort comprised 554 patients with a definite diagnosis of ARVC and no history of sustained ventricular arrhythmia (VA). During a median follow-up of 6.0 (3.1,12.5) years, 100 patients (18%) experienced the primary VA outcome (sustained ventricular tachycardia, appropriate implantable cardioverter defibrillator intervention, aborted sudden cardiac arrest, or sudden cardiac death) corresponding to an annual event rate of 2.6% [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.9-3.3]. Risk estimates for VA using the 2019 ARVC risk model showed reasonable discriminative ability but with overestimation of risk. The ARVC risk model was compared in four gene groups: PKP2 (n = 118, 21%); desmoplakin (DSP) (n = 79, 14%); other desmosomal (n = 59, 11%); and gene elusive (n = 160, 29%). Discrimination and calibration were highest for PKP2 and lowest for the gene-elusive group. Univariable analyses revealed the variable performance of individual clinical risk markers in the different gene groups, e.g. right ventricular dimensions and systolic function are significant risk markers in PKP2 but not in DSP patients and the opposite is true for left ventricular systolic function.

CONCLUSION

The 2019 ARVC risk model performs reasonably well in gene-positive ARVC (particularly for PKP2) but is more limited in gene-elusive patients. Genotype should be included in future risk models for ARVC.

Arrhythmic risk prediction in arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy: external validation of the arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy risk calculator

AIMS

Arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy (ARVC) causes ventricular arrhythmias (VAs) and sudden cardiac death (SCD). In 2019, a risk prediction model that estimates the 5-year risk of incident VAs in ARVC was developed (ARVCrisk.com). This study aimed to externally validate this prediction model in a large international multicentre cohort and to compare its performance with the risk factor approach recommended for implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) use by published guidelines and expert consensus.

METHODS AND RESULTS

In a retrospective cohort of 429 individuals from 29 centres in North America and Europe, 103 (24%) experienced sustained VA during a median follow-up of 5.02 (2.05-7.90) years following diagnosis of ARVC. External validation yielded good discrimination [C-index of 0.70 (95% confidence interval-CI 0.65-0.75)] and calibration slope of 1.01 (95% CI 0.99-1.03). Compared with the three published consensus-based decision algorithms for ICD use in ARVC (Heart Rhythm Society consensus on arrhythmogenic cardiomyopathy, International Task Force consensus statement on the treatment of ARVC, and American Heart Association guidelines for VA and SCD), the risk calculator performed better with a superior net clinical benefit below risk threshold of 35%.

CONCLUSION

Using a large independent cohort of patients, this study shows that the ARVC risk model provides good prognostic information and outperforms other published decision algorithms for ICD use. These findings support the use of the model to facilitate shared decision making regarding ICD implantation in the primary prevention of SCD in ARVC.

Comparing clinical performance of current implantable cardioverter-defibrillator implantation recommendations in arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy

AIMS

Arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy (ARVC) patients have an increased risk of ventricular arrhythmias (VA). Four implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) recommendation algorithms are available The International Task Force Consensus ('ITFC'), an ITFC modification by Orgeron et al. ('mITFC'), the AHA/HRS/ACC guideline for VA management ('AHA'), and the HRS expert consensus statement ('HRS'). This study aims to validate and compare the performance of these algorithms in ARVC.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We classified 617 definite ARVC patients (38.5 ± 15.1 years, 52.4% male, 39.2% prior sustained VA) according to four algorithms. Clinical performance was evaluated by sensitivity, specificity, ROC-analysis, and decision curve analysis for any sustained VA and for fast VA (>250 b.p.m.). During 6.4 [2.8-11.5] years follow-up, 282 (45.7%) patients experienced any sustained VA, and 63 (10.2%) fast VA. For any sustained VA, ITFC and mITFC provide higher sensitivity than AHA and HRS (94.0-97.8% vs. 76.7-83.5%), but lower specificity (15.9-32.0% vs. 42.7%-60.1%). Similarly, for fast VA, ITFC and mITFC provide higher sensitivity than AHA and HRS (95.2-97.1% vs. 76.7-78.4%) but lower specificity (42.7-43.1 vs. 76.7-78.4%). Decision curve analysis showed ITFC and mITFC to be superior for a 5-year sustained VA risk ICD indication threshold between 5-25% or 2-9% for fast VA.

CONCLUSION

The ITFC and mITFC provide the highest protection rates, whereas AHA and HRS decrease unnecessary ICD placements. ITFC or mITFC should be used if we consider the 5-year threshold for ICD indication to lie within 5-25% for sustained VA or 2-9% for fast VA. These data will inform decision-making for ICD placement in ARVC.

Pathogenesis, Diagnosis and Risk Stratification in Arrhythmogenic Cardiomyopathy

Arrhythmogenic cardiomyopathy (ACM) is a genetically determined myocardial disease associated with sudden cardiac death (SCD). It is most frequently caused by mutations in genes encoding desmosomal proteins. However, there is growing evidence that ACM is not exclusively a desmosome disease but rather appears to be a disease of the connexoma. Fibroadipose replacement of the right ventricle (RV) had long been the hallmark of ACM, although biventricular involvement or predominant involvement of the left ventricle (LD-ACM) is increasingly found, raising the challenge of differential diagnosis with arrhythmogenic dilated cardiomyopathy (a-DCM). A-DCM, ACM, and LD-ACM are increasingly acknowledged as a single nosological entity, the hallmark of which is electrical instability. Our aim was to analyze the complex molecular mechanisms underlying arrhythmogenic cardiomyopathies, outlining the role of inflammation and autoimmunity in disease pathophysiology. Secondly, we present the clinical tools used in the clinical diagnosis of ACM. Focusing on the challenge of defining the risk of sudden death in this clinical setting, we present available risk stratification strategies. Lastly, we summarize the role of genetics and imaging in risk stratification, guiding through the appropriate patient selection for ICD implantation.

Arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy: a focused update on diagnosis and risk stratification

Arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy (ARVC) is an inherited cardiomyopathy characterised by fibrofatty replacement of predominantly the right ventricle and high risk of ventricular arrhythmias and sudden cardiac death (SCD). Early diagnosis and accurate risk assessment are challenging yet essential for SCD prevention. This manuscript summarises the current state of the art on ARVC diagnosis and risk stratification. Improving the 2010 diagnostic criteria is an ongoing discussion. Several studies suggest that early diagnosis may be facilitated by including deformation imaging ('strain') for objective assessment of wall motion abnormalities, which was shown to have high sensitivity for preclinical disease. Adding fibrofatty replacement detected by late gadolinium enhancement or T1 mapping in cardiac MRI as criterion for diagnosis is increasingly suggested but requires more supporting evidence from consecutive patient cohorts. In addition to the traditional right-dominant ARVC, standard criteria for arrhythmogenic cardiomyopathy (ACM) and arrhythmogenic left ventricular cardiomyopathy (ALVC) are on the horizon. After diagnosis confirmation, the primary management goal is SCD prevention, for which an implantable cardioverter-defibrillator is the only proven therapy. Prior studies determined that younger age, male sex, previous (non-) sustained ventricular tachycardia, syncope, extent of T-wave inversion, frequent premature ectopic beats and lower biventricular ejection fraction are risk factors for subsequent events. Previous implantable cardioverter-defibrillator indication guidelines were however limited to three expert-opinion flow charts stratifying patients in risk groups. Now, two multivariable risk prediction models (arvcrisk.com) combine the abovementioned risk factors to estimate individual risks. Of note, both the flow charts and prediction models require clinical validation studies to determine which should be recommended.

Risk Stratification in Arrhythmogenic Right Ventricular Cardiomyopathy

Arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy (ARVC), also called arrhythmogenic right ventricular dysplasia or arrhythmogenic cardiomyopathy, is a genetic disease characterised by progressive myocyte loss with replacement by fibrofatty tissue. This structural change leads to the prominent features of ARVC of ventricular arrhythmia and increased risk for sudden cardiac death (SCD). Emphasis should be placed on determining and stratifying the patient’s risk of ventricular arrhythmia and SCD. ICDs should be used to treat the former and prevent the latter, but ICDs are not benign interventions. ICDs come with their own complications in this overall young population of patients. This article reviews the literature regarding the factors that contribute to the assessment of risk stratification in ARVC patients.

External Validation of a Risk Prediction Model for Ventricular Arrhythmias in Arrhythmogenic Right Ventricular Cardiomyopathy

The new 5-year ventricular arrhythmia (VA) occurrence risk model is a major breakthrough for arrhythmia risk stratification in the challenging population of patients with arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy (ARVC). In the original study, the model resulted in a 20.6% reduction in implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) placement compared with the 2015 consensus, for the same protection level. However, only internal validation was performed, limiting generalisation. We externally validated the model in a European tertiary care cohort of 128 patients with ARVC with restrictive indications for primary prevention ICD placement. Overall, 74% were men, none had VA history, and a single patient had an ICD at baseline. Median age at diagnosis was 38 years (interquartile range [IQR] 28-50). During a median follow-up of 7.8 years (IQR 6.1-9.7), 15 patients (12%) experienced VA. The model provided good discrimination, with a C-index for 5-year VA risk prediction of 0.84 (95% confidence interval 0.74-0.93). However, the model led to an overestimation of the 5-year VA risk when applying thresholds < 50%. With a < 10% predicted risk, no patient showed VA. With a 7.5% predicted risk, the ICD:VA ratio was 6.3 vs 3.4 in the original study. The model still outperformed the 2015 International Task Force Consensus. Overall, in a relatively large European ARVC cohort with restrictive indications for ICD placement, the ARVC model for VA prediction successfully identified ARVC patients with VA during follow-up. Yet, our study underscores the need for careful threshold selection, considering the model's associated risk overestimation in low- to intermediate-risk patients.

Arrhythmogenic Right Ventricular Cardiomyopathy in Pediatric Patients: An Important but Underrecognized Clinical Entity

Arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy (ARVC) is an inherited cardiomyopathy characterized by fibrofatty infiltration of predominantly the right ventricular (RV) myocardium. Affected patients typically present as young adults with hemodynamically stable ventricular tachycardia, although pediatric cases are increasingly recognized. These young subjects often have a more severe phenotype with a high risk of sudden cardiac death (SCD) and progression toward heart failure. Diagnosis of ARVC is made by combining multiple sources of information as prescribed by the consensus-based Task Force Criteria. The description of Naxos disease, a fully penetrant autosomal recessive disorder that is associated with ARVC and a cutaneous phenotype of palmoplantar keratoderma and wooly hair facilitated the identification of the genetic cause of ARVC. At present, approximately 60% of patients are found to carry a pathogenic variant in one of five genes associated with the cardiac desmosome. The incomplete penetrance and variable expressivity of these variants however implies an important role for environmental factors, of which participation in endurance exercise is a strong risk factor. Since there currently is no definite cure for ARVC, disease management is directed toward symptom reduction, delay of disease progression, and prevention of SCD. This clinically focused review describes the spectrum of ARVC among children and adolescents, the genetic architecture underlying this disease, the cardio-cutaneous syndromes that led to its identification, and current diagnostic and therapeutic strategies in pediatric ARVC subjects.

Comparison of different prediction models for the indication of implanted cardioverter defibrillator in patients with arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy

Aims

Arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy (ARVC) is associated with a high risk of sudden cardiac death. Three different prediction models for the indication of implanted cardioverter defibrillator (ICD) are now available: the 5 year ARVC risk score, the International Task Force Consensus (ITFC) criteria, and the Heart Rhythm Society (HRS) criteria. We compared these three prediction models in a validation cohort of patients with definite ARVC.

Methods and results

In a cohort of 140 patients with definite ARVC, the 5 year ARVC risk score and the ITFC and HRS criteria were compared for the prediction of a major combined endpoint of sudden cardiac death, appropriate ICD intervention, resuscitated cardiac arrest, and sustained ventricular tachycardia. During the follow‐up, 65 major events occurred. The 5 year ARVC risk score with a threshold >10%, derived from the maximally selected rank statistic, predicted 62 (95%) events [odds ratio (OR) 9.1, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.6–32, P = 0.0006], the ITFC criteria 53 (81%, OR 4.8, 95% CI 2.2–10.3, P = 0.0001), and the HRS criteria 29 (45%, OR 4.2, 95% CI 1.9–9.3, P = 0.0003). At the analysis of decision curve for ICD implantation, a 5 year ARVC risk score >10% showed a greater net benefit than the ITFC and HRS criteria over a wide range of threshold probability of events. Finally, at multivariate analysis, the 5 year ARVC risk score >10% was the only independent predictor of major events.

Conclusions

The 5 year score with a threshold of >10% was more effective for predicting events than the ITFC and HRS criteria.