A prospective study of the rate of progression in compensated, histologically advanced chronic hepatitis C

Economic evaluation of mass screening as a strategy for hepatitis C virus elimination in South Korea

BACKGROUND

This study examines Hepatitis C virus (HCV) screening scenarios to meet World Health Organization (WHO) elimination targets (incidence ≤5 per 100,000, mortality ≤2 per 100,000) and assesses their timeframes and cost-effectiveness.

METHODS

A closed cohort model of Koreans aged 30-79 in 2020 projected HCV incidence and mortality over 20 years. Economic evaluations used a dynamic transmission model, considering prevalent and annual incident cases. This approach addresses the limitations of previous models that neglected annual new HCV infections. Nine scenarios with varying screening intervals were created considering health checkup uptake, treatment rates, and HCV incidence reduction. Economic evaluations from the healthcare system's perspective employed cost-utility and cost-benefit analyses.

RESULTS

Without national HCV screening, incidence slightly decreases, whereas mortality triples over 20 years. Introducing HCV screening offers five scenarios to meet WHO targets in 20 years. The quickest, involving biennial screening, high uptake, and a 30% incidence reduction, meets the incidence target at 6 years and mortality target at 14 years. For the most cost-efficient scenario, screening every 4 years with moderate uptake and a 20% incidence reduction meets the incidence target at 17 years and mortality target at 18 years. The Incremental Cost-Effectiveness Ratio (ICER) is $8,867 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY), with a Benefit-Cost Ratio (BCR) of 1.60.

CONCLUSION

The absence of HCV screening impedes elimination goals and increases mortality. Biennial screening, with high participation and treatment rates, rapidly achieves targets but is less economically efficient. Screening every 4 years with moderate uptake and treatment rates is economically feasible and meets elimination goals within 20 years. Rapid screening implementation is crucial for effective HCV elimination.

Clinical and economic value of bulevirtide in the treatment of chronic hepatitis D

BACKGROUND/AIMS

Bulevirtide (Hepcludex®) is the first drug approved for the treatment of chronic hepatitis D (CHD), unlike the current off-label treatment (PEG-IFN-α), limited in clinical practice and associated with post-treatment relapses. In a hypothetical cohort of CHD patients in Spain, the study aim was to compare the efficiency of bulevirtide with PEG-IFN-α in terms of clinical events avoided and associated cost savings.

METHODS

A validated economic model reflecting the natural history of the disease was used to project lifetime liver complications and costs for two hypothetical cohorts treated with bulevirtide or PEG-IFN-α. The model considered progression to complications such as decompensated cirrhosis (DCC), hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), liver transplantation (LT), and death. The efficacy rates used at 24 and 48 weeks were defined as the combined response rate for bulevirtide and undetectable HDV RNA to PEG-IFN-α. The numbers of clinic events and associated costs were evaluated from the perspective of the National Healthcare System.

RESULTS

In a hypothetical cohort of 3882 patients, bulevirtide reduced the numbers of complications events in comparison to PEG-IFN-α (152 DCC, 113 HCC, 11 LT, and 321 deaths over a lifetime). This was associated with a reduction of event-related costs of €11,837,044 (DCC €1,138,059; HCC €1,503,583; LT €7,834,291; and death €1,361,111).

CONCLUSION

In patients with CHD, bulevirtide could prevent a significant number of clinical events compared to PEG-IFN-α and contribute to cost savings through these reduction in liver complications. Further testing for hepatitis D virus is needed so that more patients can benefit from bulevirtide.

Achieving Hepatitis C Micro-Elimination in Chinese Injecting Drug Users: A Dynamic Network Modeling Study

INTRODUCTION

The World Health Organization (WHO) has established objectives for eradicating the hepatitis C virus (HCV). People who inject drugs (PWID), a major driver of HCV transmission, are an essential part of China's hepatitis C elimination program. This study aimed to estimate the requisite screening and antiviral treatment levels to achieve these goals among people who inject drugs in China and identify the most cost-effective strategy.

METHODS

This study utilized models based on dynamic social networks to simulate HCV transmission and disease progression among people who inject drugs in China, incorporating a cost-effectiveness analysis from a healthcare perspective.

RESULTS

To achieve the WHO targets, a minimum screening and treatment rate of 10% is required to meet the mortality goal, while a 25% rate is necessary for the incidence goal. The most cost-effective strategy includes a 25% screening rate and a 95% treatment rate. Compared to no intervention, this approach significantly reduces costs by - $85,873.38 (95% CI  - $94,311.16 to  - $77,435.59) and adds 24.66 (95% CI 23.68 to - 25.64) quality-adjusted life years. The intervention is dominant, with a cost-effectiveness ratio of - $3482.29 (95% CI  - $3982.73 to  - $3020.11) per quality-adjusted life year.

CONCLUSION

Achieving the WHO's hepatitis C virus elimination targets among people who inject drugs in China is feasible and cost-saving.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of emergency department-based hepatitis C screening and linkage-to-care program

BACKGROUND

In the United States (US), hepatitis C virus (HCV) screening is not covered by payers in settings outside of primary care. A non-traditional, emergency department (ED)-based HCV screening program can be cost-effective and identify infection in vulnerable populations with a high HCV risk. This study examined the long-term cost-effectiveness of routine HCV screening and linkage-to-care for high-risk patients in the ED from the payer's perspective.

METHODS

The University of Illinois Hospital and Health Sciences System (UIH) implemented Project HEAL (HIV & HCV Screening, Education, Awareness, Linkage-to-Care). Under this initiative, patients who presented to the ED received opt-out HCV screening if they were at high risk for HCV infection (birth cohort between 1945 and 1964, persons who inject drugs, and HIV infection) with subsequent linkage-to-care if infected. Using the summary data from Project HEAL, a hybrid decision-analytic Markov model was developed based on the HCV screening procedure in the ED and the natural history of HCV. A 30-year time horizon and 1-year cycle length were used. All patients who received the ED-based HCV screening were referred for treatment with direct-acting antiviral (DAA) regardless of their fibrosis stage.

RESULTS

When unscreened/untreated patients received DAA treatment at F1, F2, F3, and compensated cirrhosis stages, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) ranged from $6,084 to $77,063 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained. When unscreened/untreated patients received DAA treatment at the decompensated cirrhosis stage, no HCV screening was dominated.

CONCLUSION

ED-based HCV screening and linkage-to-care was cost-effective at the willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of $100,000/QALY in all scenarios. A reduction in infected persons in the community may provide additional benefits not evaluated in this study.

Direct-Acting Antiviral Therapy for Patients with Chronic Hepatitis C Infection and Decompensated Cirrhosis

Patients with chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection and decompensated cirrhosis are an important population for antiviral therapy yet under-represented in clinical trials. HCV direct-acting antiviral (DAA) therapies, unlike interferon-containing regimens, can be safely utilized in decompensated patients. Per guidelines from the American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases (AASLD), therapy of choice in HCV and decompensated cirrhosis is sofosbuvir, an HCV polymerase inhibitor, combined with a replication complex inhibitor (NS5A inhibitor) with or without ribavirin. Combination therapy with a HCV protease inhibitor and an NS5A inhibitor is effective in this population but is specifically not recommended in AASLD guidelines due to safety concerns. Important risk factors for further decompensation during DAA therapy are serum albumin < 3.5 g/dL, MELD (Model for End-Stage Liver Disease) score > 14, or HCV genotype 3 infection. Although sustained virologic response (SVR) is achieved less often in patients with decompensated vs compensated cirrhosis, in clinical studies response rates are > 80%. Both Child-Turcotte-Pugh Class at baseline and viral genotype can affect these response rates. Achieving SVR lowers risk of mortality, but to a lesser extent than in individuals with compensated cirrhosis. Likewise, treating patients for HCV infection along with successful treatment for hepatocellular carcinoma improves risks of both liver-related and overall mortality. In fewer than one third of cases, treating transplant-eligible, HCV-infected patients pre-transplant enables their delisting from transplant wait lists.

Is it time for China to prioritize pan-genotypic regimens for treating patients with hepatitis C?

INTRODUCTION

The treatment of hepatitis C has entered the pan-genotypic era, but the effectiveness is not good for the genotype 3b patients who have a large proportion in China. The guidelines for hepatitis C recommend the use of gene-specific regimens when the regional 3b prevalence rate greater than 5%. This study is to explore rationality of this proportion and the cost-effectiveness to implement pan-genotypic regimens in China.

METHODS

A decision Markov model was developed from the health system perspective to evaluate the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness between pan-genotypic and gene-specific treatment regimens for hepatitis C patients. Additionally, we set a regional genotype 3b patient proportion of 0-100% to explore at which proportion it is necessary to perform genotype identification and typing therapy on patients. Model parameters were derived from published literature and public databases. Effectiveness was measured by cured patient numbers, newly diagnosed cases of decompensated cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma, need for liver transplantation, and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). Cost-effectiveness outcomes included costs and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER). The 1-3 times 2022 Chinese per capita gross domestic product was used as the willingness-to-pay threshold. One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed to assess the uncertainty of the model parameters.

RESULTS

Compared with gene-specific regimens, pan-genotypic regimens resulted in an additional 0.13 QALYs and an incremental cost of $165, the ICER was $1,268/QALY. From the view of efficacy, the pan-genotypic regimens cured 5,868 more people per 100,000 patients than gene-specific regimens, avoiding 86.5% of DC cases, 64.6% of HCC cases, and 78.2% of liver transplant needs. Identifying 3b patients before treatment was definitely cost-effectiveness when their prevalence was 12% or higher. The results remained robust in sensitivity analyses.

CONCLUSIONS

In China, the prioritized recommendation of pan-genotypic therapeutics proves to be both cost-effective and efficacious. But, in regions where the prevalence of genotype 3b exceeds 12%, it is necessary to identify them to provision of more suitable therapies.

Liver disease progression in patients with alpha-1 antitrypsin deficiency and protease inhibitor ZZ genotype with or without lung disease

BACKGROUND

Alpha-1 antitrypsin deficiency (AATD) is caused by mutations in SERPINA1, which encodes alpha-1 antitrypsin, a protease inhibitor (Pi). Individuals with AATD and the homozygous Pi*ZZ genotype have variable risk of progressive liver disease but the influence of comorbid lung disease is poorly understood.

AIMS

To characterise patients with AATD Pi*ZZ and liver disease (AATD-LD-Pi*ZZ) with or without lung disease and describe liver disease-related clinical events longitudinally.

METHODS

This was an observational cohort study of patients in the Mayo Clinic Healthcare System (January 2000-September 2021). Patients were identified using diagnosis codes and natural language processing. Fibrosis stage (F0-F4) was assessed using a hierarchical approach at baseline (90 days before or after the index date) and follow-up. Clinical events associated with liver disease progression were assessed.

RESULTS

AATD-LD-Pi*ZZ patients with lung disease had a longer median time from AATD diagnosis to liver disease diagnosis versus those without lung disease (2.2 vs. 0.2 years, respectively). Compared to those without lung disease, patients with lung disease had a longer time to liver disease-related clinical events (8.5 years and not reached, respectively). AATD-LD-Pi*ZZ patients without lung disease were more likely to undergo liver transplantation compared with those with lung disease.

CONCLUSION

In patients with AATD and lung disease, there is a delay in the diagnosis of comorbid liver disease. Our findings suggest that liver disease may progress more rapidly in patients without comorbid lung disease.

Evaluation of treatment access and scope of a multistate hepatitis C virus Extension for Community Healthcare Outcomes telehealth service in the US Indian Health System, 2017-2021

PURPOSE

American Indians/Alaska Native (AI/AN) persons are disproportionately affected by hepatitis C virus (HCV). The Northwest Portland Area Indian Health Board Indian Country Extension for Community Healthcare Outcomes (ECHO) telehealth clinic supports primary care providers (PCPs) in treating HCV. We evaluated the extent to which Indian Country ECHO increases access to HCV treatment and holistically serves AI/AN patients.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective descriptive analysis of Indian Country ECHO treatment recommendations from 2017 to 2021. Recommendations were classified into the following categories: HCV treatment with direct-acting antiviral medication, prevention, substance use disorder treatment, lab or imaging orders, pharmacological considerations, behavior changes, other, and referral. Subanalysis of treatment recommendations was completed for patients with cirrhosis.

FINDINGS

Of the 776 patients from 77 Indian Health System facilities who presented at Indian Country ECHO, 718 (93%) received treatment recommendations. Most patients (93%) received recommendations for HCV treatment by their PCP; only 3% received a recommendation for referral to a hepatologist or liver transplant center for additional care. Most patients received at least 1 recommendation beyond the scope of HCV treatment provision. Cirrhosis criteria were met by 8% of patients, of which 80% received recommendations for HCV treatment by their PCP and 25% received recommendations for referral to a specialist for additional care.

CONCLUSIONS

Most patients presented at the Indian Country ECHO received recommendations for HCV treatment by their PCP, along with recommendations beyond the scope of HCV. Indian Country ECHO telehealth clinic provides comprehensive recommendations to effectively integrate evidence-based HCV treatment with holistic care at the primary care level.

Economic Impact of Universal Hepatitis C Virus Testing for Middle-Aged Adults Who Inject Drugs

INTRODUCTION

The objective of this study was to estimate the economic impact of providing universal hepatitis C virus testing in commercially insured middle-aged persons who inject drugs in the U.S.

METHODS

This study developed a dynamic 10-year economic model to project the clinical and economic outcomes associated with hepatitis C virus testing among middle-aged adult persons who inject drugs, from a payer's perspective. Costs related to hepatitis C virus testing, direct-acting antiviral, and liver-related outcomes between the (1) current hepatitis C virus testing rate (i.e., 8%) and (2) universal hepatitis C virus testing rate (i.e., 100%) were compared. Among patients testing positive, 21% of those without cirrhosis and 48% of those with cirrhosis were assumed to initiate direct-acting antivirals. Sensitivity analyses were performed to identify variables (e.g., direct-acting antiviral drug costs, hepatitis C virus testing costs, direct-acting antiviral treatment rate) influencing this study's conclusion.

RESULTS

The model predicts that during the 10-year period, universal hepatitis C virus testing will cost an additional $242 per person who injects drugs to the payers' healthcare budgets compared with the current scenario. Sensitivity analyses showed values ranging from $1,656 additional costs to $1,085 cost savings across all varied parameters and scenarios. A total of 80% of the current direct-acting antiviral costs indicated that cost savings will be $383 per person who injects drugs.

CONCLUSIONS

Universal hepatitis C virus testing among persons who inject drugs would not achieve cost savings within 10 years, with the cost of direct-acting antivirals contributing the most to the spending. To promote universal hepatitis C virus testing among persons who inject drugs, decreasing direct-acting antiviral costs and sustainable funding streams for hepatitis C virus testing should be considered.

Cost-effectiveness of direct-acting antivirals for chronic hepatitis C virus in the United States from a payer perspective

BACKGROUND: Direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) have been a breakthrough therapeutic innovation in the treatment of chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) with significantly improved efficacy, safety, and tolerability. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of treating patients with HCV with DAAs compared with pre-DAAs or no treatment over a lifetime horizon from the perspective of the US Veterans Affairs (VA) health care system. METHODS: A hybrid decision-tree and Markov model simulated the health outcomes of a cohort of 142,147 patients with HCV with an average age of 63 years. Demographic data, treatment rates and distribution, treatment efficacy by subpopulation, and health state costs were sourced from VA data. Treatment costs and utility values were sourced from publicly available databases and prior publications for older regimens. RESULTS: Over a lifetime horizon, the use of DAAs results in a significant reduction in advanced liver disease events compared with pre-DAA and no treatment. Total cost savings of $7 and $9 billion over a lifetime horizon (50 years) were predicted for patients who received DAA treatments compared with patients treated with pre-DAA treatments and those who were untreated, respectively. Cost savings were achieved quickly after treatment, with DAAs being inexpensive when compared with both the pre-DAA and untreated scenarios within 5 years. The DAA intervention dominated (ie, more effective and less costly) for both the pre-DAA and untreated strategies on both a per-patient and cohort basis. CONCLUSIONS: The use of DAA-based treatments in patients with HCV in the VA system significantly reduced long-term HCV-related morbidity and mortality, while providing cost savings within only 5 years of treatment. DISCLOSURES: This work was supported by Gilead Inc. Health Economic Outcomes Research group, grant number GS-US-18-HCV003. Drs Yehoshua and Kaushik are employees of Gilead in the Health Economic Outcome Research group. These individuals reviewed the manuscript but did not contribute to input or output of the Markov model. Maple Health Group (Dr El-Moustaid, Ms Raad, and Dr Smith) are consultants hired by Gilead for Markov modeling expertise. The model used in this study was previously published and peer reviewed. Data inputted into the model related to patient demographic, treatment outcomes, clinical outcomes, and costs were completely independent in derivation by Drs Kaplan, Serper, and Durkin and were not influenced by the funding sponsor. Dr Kaplan reports grants from Gilead Inc. during the conduct of the study and grants from Gilead Inc., other from Glycotest Inc., other from AstraZeneca, other from Exact Sciences, and other from Bayer outside the submitted work.

Eliminate Hepatitis C as a Public Health Threat: A Narrative Review of Strategies, Gaps, and Opportunities for China

INTRODUCTION

As a country that is heavily burdened by hepatitis C, China's successful responses to this public health threat have significant implications for the achievement of the global elimination goal.

METHODS

This article reviews China's strategies for prevention, screening, diagnosis, access to direct-acting antiviral agents (DAA) therapy, and patient management of hepatitis C. It also analyses the major challenges and summarizes the valuable successful international experiences that have implications for China to achieve the elimination goal.

RESULTS

To promote the achievement of elimination, China has taken a series of proactive measures to promote the prevention and treatment of hepatitis C. Compared with other middle-income countries, there is still much room for China to achieve universal screening, diagnosis and treatment based on a streamlined disease management procedure. A stronger role of primary care in an integrated healthcare delivery system and integration of hepatitis C with other infectious disease programs should also be the focus of China's efforts.

CONCLUSIONS

As a developing country with a large population, a "micro-elimination" strategy with focused screening and proactive diagnosis and treatment for the vulnerable population may be a more practical approach to eliminating hepatitis C in China. Continued efforts are needed to fully overcome the intellectual property barriers of sofosbuvir for forming the more competitive pan-genotype DAA combinations based on the locally developed DAAs. Meanwhile, the safety net for patients in economic hardship needs to be further strengthened. More importantly, it is necessary to promote patients' willingness and compliance with standard treatment through increased awareness of hepatitis C. The development of an integrated healthcare delivery system, a disease management procedure which is suitable for primary care, and full compliance of the primary care providers are also important to achieve effective cascade care management.

Uptake and factors associated with direct-acting antiviral therapy for hepatitis C and treatment outcomes among Canadian immigrants: A retrospective cohort analysis

BACKGROUND

We sought to compare rates and factors associated with direct acting antiviral (DAA) treatment uptake and sustained virological response (SVR) between Canadian-born and foreign-born patients.

METHODS

The study was conducted utilizing a retrospective cohort of hepatitis C virus (HCV)-infected patients assessed at The Ottawa Hospital Viral Hepatitis Clinic between January 2015 and October 2021. Risk factors, income, and clinical characteristics of HCV infection associated with DAA therapy uptake and SVR were compared by immigration status using logistic regression.

RESULTS

Of 1,459 HCV-infected patients, 264 (18.1%) were born outside of the country. A median 17 years passed from immigration to first assessment at the clinic. The proportion of patients initiating DAA therapy was similar between groups (65.2% versus 69.5%, p = 0.17). Characteristics associated with DAA therapy uptake included age at first assessment (OR 1.02; 95% CI 1.01 to 1.03) and being cirrhotic (OR 3.19; 95% CI 1.99 to 2.13). Crude SVR rate was higher in immigrants than in Canadian-born patients (91.5% versus 83.7%, p = 0.01). After controlling for other variables, only advancing age was associated with the likelihood of achieving crude SVR (OR 1.04, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.05).

CONCLUSIONS

We found that DAA therapy uptake and HCV cure rates were high in both groups suggesting equity of opportunity in those referred to our program. The older age at presentation suggests missed opportunities to diagnose and engage immigrants in HCV care. These findings emphasize the importance of early large-scale screening and engagement in care for HCV infection of immigrant populations to prevent future complications.

Economic evaluation of pan-genotypic generic direct-acting antiviral regimens for treatment of chronic hepatitis C in Iran: a cost-effectiveness study

INTRODUCTION

Low-cost generic direct-acting antiviral (DAA) regimens for treatment of hepatitis C virus (HCV) are available in several low-income/middle-income countries, important for treatment scale-up. This study evaluated the cost-effectiveness of genotype-dependent and pan-genotypic DAA regimens in Iran as an example of a resource-limited setting.

METHODS

A Markov model was developed to simulate HCV natural history. A decision tree was developed for HCV treatment, assuming four scenarios, including scenario 1: genotyping, sofosbuvir/ledipasvir (SOF/LDV) for genotype 1, and sofosbuvir/daclatasvir (SOF/DCV) for genotype 3; scenario 2: genotyping, SOF/LDV for genotype 1, and sofosbuvir/velpatasvir (SOF/VEL) for genotype 3; scenario 3: no genotyping and SOF/DCV for all; and scenario 4: no genotyping and SOF/VEL for all. A 1-year cycle length was used to calculate the cumulative cost and effectiveness over a lifetime time horizon. We calculated quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) using a health system perspective. Costs were converted to US dollars using purchasing power parity exchange rate ($PPP). All costs and outcomes were discounted at an annual rate of 3%.

RESULTS

Among people with no cirrhosis, scenario 3 had the minimum cost, compared with which scenario 4 was cost-effective with an ICER of 4583 $PPP per QALY (willingness-to-pay threshold: 9,311 $PPP per QALY). Among both people with compensated or decompensated cirrhosis, scenario 4 was cost saving. In sensitivity analysis, scenario 4 would be also cost-saving among people with no cirrhosis provided a 39% reduction in the cost of 12 weeks SOF/VEL.

CONCLUSION

Initiating all patients on pan-genotypic generic DAA regimens with no pretreatment genotyping was cost-effective compared with scenarios requiring pretreatment HCV genotype tests. Among generic pan-genotypic DAA regimens, SOF/VEL was cost-effective, for people with no cirrhosis and cost-saving for those with cirrhosis.

Cost-utility analysis of four WHO-recommended sofosbuvir-based regimens for the treatment of chronic hepatitis C in sub-Saharan Africa

Background

Although direct-acting antivirals (DAA) have become standard care for patients with chronic hepatitis C worldwide, there is no evidence for their value for money in sub-Saharan Africa. We assessed the cost-effectiveness of four sofosbuvir-based regimens recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO) in Cameroon, Côte d’Ivoire and Senegal.

Methods

Using modelling, we simulated chronic hepatitis C progression with and without treatment in hypothetical cohorts of patients infected with the country’s predominant genotypes (1, 2 and 4) and without other viral coinfections, history of liver complication or hepatocellular carcinoma. Using the status-quo ‘no DAA treatment’ as a comparator, we assessed four regimens: sofosbuvir-ribavirin, sofosbuvir-ledipasvir (both recommended in WHO 2016 guidelines and assessed in the TAC pilot trial conducted in Cameroon, Côte d’Ivoire and Senegal), sofosbuvir-daclatasvir and sofosbuvir-ledipasvir (two pangenotypic regimens recommended in WHO 2018 guidelines). DAA effectiveness, costs and utilities were mainly estimated using data from the TAC pilot trial. Secondary data from the literature was used to estimate disease progression probabilities with and without treatment. We considered two DAA pricing scenarios: S1) originator prices; S2) generic prices. Uncertainty was addressed using probabilistic and deterministic sensitivity analyses and cost-effectiveness acceptability curves.

Results

With slightly higher effectiveness and significantly lower costs, sofosbuvir/velpatasvir was the preferred DAA regimen in S1 with incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) ranging from US$526 to US$632/QALY. At the cost-effectiveness threshold (CET) of 0.5 times the 2017 country’s per-capita gross domestic product (GDP), sofosbuvir/velpatasvir was only cost-effective in Senegal (probability > 95%). In S2 at generic prices, sofosbuvir/daclatasvir was the preferred regimen due to significantly lower costs. ICERs ranged from US$139 to US$216/QALY according to country i.e. a 95% probability of being cost-effective. Furthermore, this regimen was cost-effective (probability> 95%) for all CET higher than US$281/QALY, US$223/QALY and US$195/QALY in Cameroon, Côte d’Ivoire and Senegal, respectively, corresponding to 0.14 (Côte d’Ivoire and Senegal) and 0.2 (Cameroon) times the country’s per-capita GDP.

Conclusions

Generic sofosbuvir/daclatasvir is very cost-effective for treating chronic hepatitis C in sub-Saharan Africa. Large-scale use of generics and an increase in national and international funding for hepatitis C treatment must be priorities for the HCV elimination agenda.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12913-021-07289-0.

A mathematical model by route of transmission and fibrosis progression to estimate undiagnosed individuals with HCV in different Italian regions

BACKGROUND

Although an increase in hepatitis C virus (HCV) prevalence from Northern to Southern Italy has been reported, the burden of asymptomatic individuals in different Italian regions is currently unknown.

METHODS

A probabilistic approach, including a Markov chain for liver disease progression, was applied to estimate current HCV viraemic burden. The model defined prevalence by geographic area using an estimated annual historical HCV incidence by age, treatment rate, and migration rate from the Italian National database. Viraemic infection by age group was estimated for each region by main HCV transmission routes of individuals for stage F0-F3 (i.e. patients without liver cirrhosis and thus potentially asymptomatic) and F4 (patients with liver cirrhosis, thus potentially symptomatic).

RESULTS

By January 2020, it was estimated that there were 409,184 Italian individuals with HCV (prevalence of 0.68%; 95% CI: 0.54-0.82%), of which 300,171 (0.50%; 95% CI: 0.4-0.6%) were stage F0-F3. Considering all individuals with HCV in stage F0-F3, the geographical distributions (expressed as the proportion of HCV infected individuals by macroarea within the overall estimated number of F0-F3 individuals and prevalence values, expressed as the percentage of individuals with HCV versus the overall number of individuals for each macroarea) were as follows: North 42.1% (0.45%; 95% CI: 0.36-0.55%), Central 24.1% (0.61%; 95% CI: 0.48-0.74%), South 23.2% (0.50%; 95% CI: 0.4-0.61%), and the Isles 10.6% (0.49%; 95% CI: 0.39-0.59%). The population of people who inject drugs accounted for 50.4% of all individuals infected (F0-F3). Undiagnosed individuals (F0-F3) were ~ 15 years younger (⁓ 50 years) compared with patients with stage F4 (⁓ 65 years), with similar age distributions across macroareas. In contrast to what has been reported on HCV epidemiology in Italy, an increasing trend in the proportion of potentially undiagnosed individuals with HCV (absolute number within the F0-F3) from South (23.2%) to North (42.1%) emerged, independent of similar regional prevalence values.

CONCLUSION

This targeted approach, which addresses the specific profile of undiagnosed individuals, is helpful in planning effective elimination strategies by region in Italy and could be a useful methodology for other countries in implementing their elimination plans.

A cost-effectiveness study of universal screening for hepatitis C virus infection in South Korea: A societal perspective

BACKGROUND/AIMS

This study aimed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of hepatitis C virus (HCV) screening compared to no screening in the Korean population from societal and healthcare system perspectives.

METHODS

A published decision-tree plus Markov model was used to compare the expected costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALY) between one-time universal HCV screening and no screening in the population aged 40-65 years using the National Health Examination (NHE) program. Input parameters were obtained from analyses of the National Health Insurance claims data, Korean HCV cohort data, or from the literature review. The population aged 40-65 years was simulated in a model spanning a lifetime from both the healthcare system and societal perspectives, which included the cost of productivity loss due to HCV-related deaths. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) between universal screening and no screening was estimated.

RESULTS

The HCV screening strategy had an ICER of $2,666/QALY and $431/QALY from the healthcare system and societal perspectives, respectively. Both ICERs were far less than the willingness-to-pay threshold of $25,000/QALY, showing that universal screening was highly cost-effective compared to no screening. In various sensitivity analyses, the most influential parameters on cost-effectiveness were the antibodies to HCV (anti-HCV) prevalence, screening costs, and treatment acceptance; however, all ICERs were consistently less than the threshold. If the anti-HCV prevalence was over 0.18%, screening could be cost-effective.

CONCLUSION

One-time universal HCV screening in the Korean population aged 40-65 years using NHE program would be highly cost-effective from both healthcare system and societal perspectives.

Economic Consequences of Anti-HCV Treatment of Patients Diagnosed Through Screening in Italy: A Prospective Modelling Analysis

AIM

To evaluate the cost-consequences of the investment for anti-hepatitis C virus (HCV) treatment by the Italian National Health System (NHS) for patients who will be newly diagnosed through active HCV screening, implemented in Italy from 2020.

METHODS

A previously published Markov model was used to estimate the disease complications avoided and the associated savings over 20 years to treat a standardised population of 10,000 HCV-infected patients diagnosed as a result of screening. Disease progression probabilities and fibrosis stage distribution were based on previously reported data in the literature. Real-life treatment effectiveness and medical expenses for disease management were estimated starting from a representative cohort of HCV-treated patients in Italy (Italian Platform for the Study of Viral Hepatitis Therapies). The breakeven point in time (BPT) was defined as the years required for the initial investment in treatment to be recovered in terms of cumulative costs saved.

RESULTS

Over a 20-year time horizon, the treatment of 10,000 standardized patients diagnosed through active HCV screening results in 7769 avoided events of progression, which are associated with €838.73 million net savings accrued by the Italian NHS. The initial investment in treatment is recouped in 4.3 years in the form of savings from disease complications avoided.

CONCLUSION

Investment in treatment of newly diagnosed patients will bring a significant reduction in disease complications, which is associated with great economic benefits. This type of action can reduce the infection rate as well as the clinical and economic disease burden of HCV in Italy.

Red cell distribution width as a predictor of outcome in hospitalized cirrhotic patients

BACKGROUND

A systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) is linked to red cell distribution width (RCDW), which produces pro-inflammatory signals that act directly on hematopoietic stem cells in the bone marrow. This stimulation may cause alterations in the membrane of red blood cells (RBCs), as assessed by RCDW, which have been linked to increased morbidity and death in a number of systemic disorders.

AIM

This study aims to evaluate RCDW as a predictor of outcome in hospitalized cirrhotic patients.

METHODS

This prospective cross-sectional study was conducted on 1000 patients. The outcome was assessed by days of hospitalization; mortality in hospitalized patients or during short-term follow-up (3 months) and rehospitalization during follow-up of 6 months.

RESULTS

Male represented 69.6%. Mean age was 57.67 ± 13.07 years old. Baseline co-morbidities were recorded as the presence of diabetes mellitus (200 patients) and hypertension (400 patients). Hepatitis C virus was the commonest etiology of the diseased liver (90%). Child-Pugh classes A, B and C of studied patients represented (21.2%, 38.8% and 40%). The survived patients during follow-up represented 63.3%. Area under the curve for RCDW was 0.923 (95% CI, 0.904-0.943), 0.910 for C-reactive protein (95% CI, 0.890-0.930), 0.904 for Hb (95% CI, 0.883-0.925) and 0.903 for platelets (95% CI, 0.882-0.924). RCDW cutoff point at 21.35 for predicting survival had sensitivity 93%, specificity 91%, accuracy 92%, positive predictive value 85 and negative predictive value 96. Regression analysis revealed a significant positive association between both RCDW and white blood cells with mortality.

CONCLUSION

RCDW could provide useful information for predicting the length of hospitalization and survival in hospitalized cirrhotic patients.

Cost-Effectiveness of Testing for NS5A Resistance to Optimize Treatment of Elbasvir/Grazoprevir for Chronic Hepatitis C in China

Objectives: Baseline presence of nonstructural protein 5A (NS5A) resistance-associated variants can attenuate the efficacy of new direct-acting antivirals. A potential method to attain the higher efficacy would be to screen for NS5A polymorphisms prior to the initiation of therapy and to adjust the treatment length based on the test results. However, baseline testing adds additional costs and it is unclear whether this would represent a high value strategy for chronic hepatitis C in China.

Methods: A hybrid model compared 1) standard 12-weeks treatment (no testing), 2) shortened 8-weeks treatment (no testing), and 3) baseline testing with 12-/8-weeks treatment for those with/without NS5A polymorphisms from a lifetime Chinese health care payer perspective. All model inputs were retrieved from clinical trials and publically available literature. And sensitivity analyses were also conducted to assess the impact of uncertainty.

Results: Baseline testing was associated with overall increase in total health care cost of USD 13.50 and in QALYs of 0.002 compared with standard 12-weeks treatment (no testing), yielded in an ICER of USD 6750/QALY gained. Scenario analyses suggested that shortened 8-weeks treatment (no testing) was found to be lower costs and great QALYs compared with other two strategies when the sustained virologic response (SVR) rate increased to 95%. Sensitivity analyses indicated that the results were robust.

Conclusions: Our results suggest prior assessment of NS5A sensitivity followed by optimizing treatment duration was an economic strategy. In addition, shortened 8-weeks treatment (no testing) was shown to be dominant with the SVR rate increased to 95%.

Real-world effectiveness and safety of direct-acting antivirals in patients with cirrhosis and history of hepatic decompensation: Epi-Ter2 Study

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The aim of this study was to assess the real-life effectiveness and safety of direct acting antivirals (DAAs) in patients with cirrhosis and history of hepatic decompensation compared to those with compensated cirrhosis.

METHOD

Data of patients treated with DAAs and included in the EpiTer-2 database (N = 10 152) were collected retrospectively. The primary endpoint was sustained viral response (SVR) at 12 weeks posttreatment. Patients were also evaluated in terms of liver-related adverse events and treatment modification/discontinuation.

RESULTS

The overall SVR rate was 91.4% in the intent to treat (ITT) analysis and 95.2% in the per-protocol (PP) analysis (P < .001). Patients with decompensated cirrhosis had lower SVR rates compared to those with compensated cirrhosis in ITT analysis (86.4% vs 92.0%, P < .001), while not in PP analysis (92.9% vs 95.5%, P > .05). Adverse events (AE) occurred 45.6% and 29.3% of patients with decompensated and compensated cirrhosis (P < .001). Patients with decompensated cirrhosis were at higher risk of death (5.4% vs 0.9%; P < .0001) or liver decompensation (21.5% vs 1.3%; P < .0001). Treatment with protease inhibitors was not associated with hepatic decompensation (P = .3). Only 82.6% of patients with decompensated cirrhosis completed DAA treatment (vs 92.8% in compensated cirrhotics; P < .0001).

CONCLUSION

Despite higher frequency of AE and treatment modifications, once completed, DAAs yield comparable results for patients with decompensated and compensated cirrhosis. High rate of serious adverse events in patients with advanced liver disease treated with PI may not be related to the detrimental effect of the medications, but rather to the disease itself.

Cost and cost-effectiveness of a real-world HCV treatment program among HIV-infected individuals in Myanmar

Introduction

Over half of those hepatitis C virus (HCV)/HIV coinfected live in low-income and middle-income countries, and many remain undiagnosed or untreated. In 2016, Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) established a direct-acting antiviral (DAA) treatment programme for people HCV/HIV coinfected in Myanmar. The purpose of our study was to evaluate the real-world cost and cost-effectiveness of this programme, and potential cost-effectiveness if implemented by the Ministry of Health (MoH).

Methods

Costs (patient-level microcosting) and treatment outcomes were collected from the MSF prospective cohort study in Dawei, Myanmar. A Markov model was used to assess cost-effectiveness of the programme compared with no HCV treatment from a health provider perspective. Estimated lifetime and healthcare costs (in 2017 US$) and health outcomes (in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs)) were simulated to calculate the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER), compared with a willingness-to-pay threshold of per capita Gross Domestic Product in Myanmar ($1250). We evaluated cost-effectiveness with updated quality-assured generic DAA prices and potential cost-effectiveness of a proposed simplified treatment protocol with updated DAA prices if implemented by the MoH.

Results

From November 2016 to October 2017, 122 with HIV/HCV-coinfected patients were treated with DAAs (46% with cirrhosis), 96% (n=117) achieved sustained virological response. Mean treatment costs were $1229 (without cirrhosis) and $1971 (with cirrhosis), with DAA drugs being the largest contributor to cost. Compared with no treatment, the program was cost-effective (ICER $634/DALY averted); more so with updated prices for quality-assured generic DAAs (ICER $488/DALY averted). A simplified treatment protocol delivered by the MoH could be cost-effective if associated with similar outcomes (ICER $316/DALY averted).

Conclusions

Using MSF programme data, the DAA treatment programme for HCV among HIV-coinfected individuals is cost-effective in Myanmar, and even more so with updated DAA prices. A simplified treatment protocol could enhance cost-effectiveness if further rollout demonstrates it is not associated with worse treatment outcomes.

Cost-effectiveness of new antiviral treatments for non-genotype 1 hepatitis C virus infection in China: a societal perspective

Objective

This study aimed to estimate the cost-effectiveness of direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) among patients with non-genotype 1 for the eradication of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection in China.

Methods

A decision-analytic Markov model was developed to estimate the lifetime costs, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) for DAAs and pegylated interferon plus ribavirin (PEG-RBV) from a societal perspective. The model inputs were derived from the literature, a patient survey, HCV expert opinions and a specialised drug price database available in China. Sensitivity analysis was conducted to evaluate the model robustness and calculate reasonable prices of DAAs.

Results

For patients infected with HCV genotype 2, the pan-genotypic regimen sofosbuvir/velpatasvir (SOF/VEL) was the most cost-effective strategy compared with PEG-RBV, with an ICER of US$5653/QALY. For genotype 3, the combination of sofosbuvir plus daclatasvir (SOF-DCV) was the most cost-effective approach, with an ICER of US$3314/QALY. All DAA regimens for genotype 6 were cost-saving, and sofosbuvir plus ribavirin (SOF-RBV) was the optimal regimen. One-way sensitivity analysis demonstrated that the ICERs were most sensitive to the utility values, discount rate and drug costs. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis indicated that using a threshold equal to one time the gross domestic product (GDP) per capita in China (US$9769/QALY, 2018), the probability of SOF/VEL, SOF-DCV and SOF-RBV being cost-effective was 58%, 83% and 71% for genotype 2, 3 and 6, respectively. Threshold analysis showed that the price of DAAs should be reduced by some degree to achieve better affordability.

Conclusions

DAAs were cost-effective compared with traditional treatments. A reasonable reduction in the price of DAAs will increase drug affordability and is of great significance as a global strategy to eradicate viral hepatitis.

The impact of direct acting antivirals on hepatitis C virus disease burden and associated costs in four european countries

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

We assessed the clinical and economic impact of direct-acting antiviral (DAA) therapy for hepatitis C virus (HCV) in England, Italy, Romania and Spain.

METHODS

An HCV progression Markov model was developed considering DAA eligibility and population data during the years 2015-2019. The period of time to recover the investment in DAAs was calculated as the cost saved by avoiding estimated clinical events for 1000 standardized treated patients. A delayed treatment scenario because of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) was also developed.

RESULTS

The estimated number of avoided hepatocellular carcinoma, decompensated cirrhosis and liver transplantations over a 20-year time horizon was: 1,057 in England; 1,221 in Italy; 1,211 in Romania; and 1,103 in Spain for patients treated during 2015-2016 and 640 in England; 626 in Italy; 739 in Romania; and 643 in Spain for patients treated during 2017-2019. The cost-savings ranged from € 45 to € 275 million. The investment needed to expand access to DAAs in 2015-2019 is estimated to be recovered in 6.5 years in England; 5.4 years in Italy; 6.7 years in Romania; and 4.5 years in Spain. A delay in treatment because of COVID-19 will increase liver mortality in all countries.

CONCLUSION

Direct-acting antivirals have significant clinical benefits and can bring substantial cost-savings over the next 20 years, reaching a Break-even point in a short period of time. When pursuing an exit strategy from strict lockdown measures for COVID-19, providing DAAs should remain high on the list of priorities in order to maintain HCV elimination efforts.

Estimated prevalence of undiagnosed HCV infected individuals in Italy: A mathematical model by route of transmission and fibrosis progression

BACKGROUND

The universal treatment of diagnosed patients with chronic HCV infection has been widely conducted in Italy since 2017. However, the pool of individuals diagnosed but yet to be treated in Italy has been estimated to end around 2025, leaving a significant proportion of infected individuals undiagnosed/without care. Estimates of this population are currently unknown.

METHODS

A probabilistic modelling approach was applied to estimate annual historical HCV incident cases by their age-group (0-100 years) distribution from available literature and Italian National database (1952 to October 2019). Viraemic infection rates were modelled on the main infection routes in Italy: people who inject drugs (PWID), tattoos, sexual transmission, glass syringe use, blood transfusion and vertical transmission. Annual liver fibrosis stage transition probabilities were modelled using a Markov model. The number of HCV viraemic asymptomatic (fibrosis stage F0-F3:potentially undiagnosed/unlinked to care) and symptomatic (fibrosis stage F4: potentially linked to care) individuals was estimated.

RESULTS

By October 2019, total viraemic HCV individuals in Italy (excluding treated patients since 1992) were estimated to be 410,775 (0.68 % of current population of Italy; 95 % CI: 0.64-0.71%, based on the current Italian population), of which 281,809 (0.47 %; 95 % CI:0.35-0.60%) were fibrosis stage F0-F3. Among different high risk groups in stage F0-F3, the following distribution was estimated: PWID; 52.0 % (95 % CI:37.9-66.6 %), tattoo; 28.8 % (95 % CI:23-32.3 %), sexual transmission; 12.0 % (95 % CI:9.6-13.7 %), glass syringe and transfusion; 6.4 % (95 % CI:2.4-17.8 %), and vertical transmission; 0.7 % (95 % CI:0.4-1.2 %).

CONCLUSION

Under the assumption that most untreated HCV-infected individuals with stage F0-F3 are undiagnosed, more than 280,000 individuals are undiagnosed and/or unlinked to care in Italy. Marked heterogeneity across the major routes of HCV transmission was estimated. This modelling approach may be a useful tool to characterise the HCV epidemic profile also in other countries, based on country specific epidemiology and HCV main transmission routes.

Bariatric surgery proves long-term benefit in patients with cirrhosis

Background

Obesity is commonly observed in patients with cirrhosis, especially with the increasing prevalence of non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH). Bariatric surgery has been avoided in these patients given concerns about increased perioperative risk; therefore, data are lacking regarding long-term outcomes. In this study, we aimed to evaluate the long-term outcomes of patients with cirrhosis who underwent bariatric surgery.

Methods

We reviewed the charts of adult patients with compensated cirrhosis who underwent bariatric surgery after they were prospectively enrolled between February 23, 2009 and November 9, 2011, and followed in a pilot study for evaluation of bariatric surgery outcomes. Only patients with more than 4 years of follow-up were included in the analysis. Data regarding their liver disease, metabolic status, and survival were collected. A descriptive analysis was performed.

Results

The cohort consisted of 10 patients, of whom 7 were females. The median post-surgical follow-up was 8.7 years (± 1.4 years). All patients had biopsy-proven NASH; two patients had concurrent, untreated hepatitis C infection. During the observation period, there was a mean weight loss of 24 kg (19.2% of total body weight pre surgery, P < 0.001) and only one patient regained weight to the baseline pre-surgical measurement. One patient who was not eligible for transplant developed hepatic encephalopathy 3 years after surgery and later died. The remainder of the patients did not have any hepatic decompensation, cardiovascular event, or mortality. Except for one patient with Gilbert syndrome, bilirubin was normal in all patients at last follow-up.

Conclusions

Bariatric surgery in patients with compensated cirrhosis can lead to sustained weight loss and stable hepatic function on long-term follow-up.

Long-term clinical benefits of Sofosbuvir-based direct antiviral regimens for patients with chronic hepatitis C in Central and West Africa

BACKGROUND

In Sub-Saharan Africa, chronic hepatitis C (CHC) is a major public health issue. We estimated the long-term clinical benefits of treating CHC with sofosbuvir-based regimens in Cameroon, Côte d'Ivoire and Senegal using Markov model combining data from the literature with estimates of direct-acting antiviral (DAAs) effectiveness in West and Central Africa.

METHODS

Disease progression was simulated with and without treatment in fictive cohorts of patients "diagnosed" with CHC in Cameroon (n = 3224), Côte d'Ivoire (n = 9748) and Senegal (n = 6358). Lifetime treatment benefits were assessed using (a) life-years saved (LYS); (b) life-years (LY) avoided in compensated cirrhosis (CC), decompensated cirrhosis (DC) and hepatocellular carcinoma; and (c) comparison of the proportions of patients at each disease stage with and without treatment. Probabilistic and determinist sensitivity analyses were performed to address uncertainty.

RESULTS

Sofosbuvir-based treatment would save [mean, 95% confidence intervals] 3.3 (2.5; 5.7) LY per patient in Cameroon, 2.7 (2.1; 4.8) in Côte d'Ivoire and 3.6 (2.8; 6.3) in Senegal. With treatment, approximately 6% (1%) of the patients still alive in each of the study countries would be in the CC (DC) health state 11 (15) years after CHC diagnosis, vs 15% (5%) without treatment. Scenario analysis showed earlier diagnosis and treatment initiation would dramatically improve LYS and morbidity.

CONCLUSION

Sofosbuvir-based treatment could significantly reduce CHC-related mortality and help control CHC-related liver disease progression in West and Central Africa. However, the goal of disease elimination necessitates a substantial decrease in DAAs prices, greater political commitment and increases in both national and external health expenditures.

Cost-utility of sofosbuvir/velpatasvir versus other direct-acting antivirals for chronic hepatitis C genotype 1b infection in China

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to estimate the cost-utility of sofosbuvir/velpatasvir (SOF/VEL) compared with other direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) in Chinese patients with hepatitis C virus (HCV).

DESIGN

A Markov model was developed to estimate the disease progression of patients with HCV over a lifetime horizon from the healthcare system perspective. Efficacy, clinical inputs and utilities were derived from the published literature. Drug costs were from the market price survey, and health costs for Markov health states were sourced from a Chinese study. Costs and utilities were discounted at an annual rate of 5%. One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted to test the impact of input parameters on the results.

INTERVENTIONS

SOF/VEL was compared with sofosbuvir+ribavirin (SR), sofosbuvir+dasabuvir (SD), daclatasvir+asunaprevir (DCV/ASV), ombitasvir/paritaprevir/ritonavir+dasabuvir (3D) and elbasvir/grazoprevir (EBR/GZR).

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOMES

Costs, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and incremental cost-utility ratios (ICURs).

RESULTS

SOF/VEL was economically dominant over SR and SD. However, 3D was economically dominant compared with SOF/VEL. Compared with DCV/ASV, SOF/VEL was cost-effective with the ICUR of US$1522 per QALY. Compared with EBR/GZR, it was not cost-effective with the ICUR of US$369 627 per QALY. One-way sensitivity analysis demonstrated that reducing the cost of SOF/VEL to the lower value of CI resulted in dominance over EBR/GZR and 3D. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis demonstrated that 3D was cost-effective in 100% of iterations in patients with genotype (GT) 1b and SOF/VEL was not cost-effective.

CONCLUSIONS

Compared with other oral DAA agents, SOF/VEL treatment was not the most cost-effectiveness option for patients with chronic HCV GT1b in China. Lower the price of SOF/VEL will make it cost-effective while simplifying treatment and achieving the goal of HCV elimination.

Outcomes after hepatic encephalopathy in population-based cohorts of patients with cirrhosis

BACKGROUND

Hepatic encephalopathy is a devastating complication of cirrhosis.

AIM

To describe the outcomes after developing hepatic encephalopathy among contemporary, aging patients.

METHODS

We examined data for a 20% random sample of United States Medicare enrolees with cirrhosis and Part D prescription coverage from 2008 to 2014. Among 49 164 persons with hepatic encephalopathy, we evaluated the associations with transplant-free survival using Cox proportional hazard models with time-varying covariates (hazard ratios, HR) and incidence rate ratios (IRR) for healthcare utilisation measured in hospital-days and 30-day readmissions per person-year. We validated our findings in an external cohort of 2184 privately insured patients with complete laboratory values.

RESULTS

Hepatic encephalopathy was associated with median survivals of 0.95 and 2.5 years for those ≥65 or <65 years old and 1.1 versus 3.9 years for those with and without ascites. Non-alcoholic fatty-liver disease posed the highest adjusted risk of death among aetiologies, HR 1.07 95% CI (1.02, 1.12). Both gastroenterology consultation and rifaximin utilisation were associated with lower mortality, respective adjusted-HR 0.73 95% CI (0.67, 0.80) and 0.40 95% CI (0.39, 0.42). Thirty-day readmissions were fewer for patients seen by gastroenterologists (0.71 95% CI [0.57-0.88]) and taking rifaximin (0.18 95% CI [0.08-0.40]). Lactulose alone was associated with fewer hospital-days, IRR 0.31 95% CI (0.30-0.32), than rifaximin alone, 0.49 95% CI (0.45-0.53), but the optimal therapy combination was lactulose/rifaximin, IRR 0.28 95% CI (0.27-0.30). These findings were validated in the privately insured cohort adjusting for model for endstage liver disease-sodium score and serum albumin.

CONCLUSIONS

Hepatic encephalopathy remains morbid and associated with poor outcomes among contemporary patients. Gastroenterology consultation and combination lactulose-rifaximin are both associated with improved outcomes. These data inform the development of care coordination efforts for subjects with cirrhosis.

Platelet to lymphocyte ratio as a predictive biomarker of liver fibrosis (on elastography) in patients with hepatitis C virus (HCV)-related liver disease

BACKGROUND

Liver fibrosis is a frequent complication of chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection. Its evaluation is very important for the prognosis of these patients. The aim of this study was to evaluate the possibility of exploiting the platelet to lymphocyte ratio and the neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio as non-invasive predictive markers of liver fibrosis.

METHODS

We recruited 120 patients with chronic HCV infection. They were subjected to various clinical investigations to assess the severity of fibrosis. Transient elastography and some serological tests were performed, and the platelet to lymphocyte ratio and the neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio were estimated.

RESULTS

Sixty-four patients had F4 fibrosis (defined by elastography) and their platelet to lymphocyte ratio (69.92 ± 26.47) was lower than in patients with non-F4 fibrosis (95.19 ± 48.15) (p = 0.001). The neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio was also estimated, but the difference between the 2 groups of patients was not significant statistically (p = 0.07).

CONCLUSION

The platelet to lymphocyte ratio can be used as a predictive biomarker of liver fibrosis, unlike the neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio which is not predictive of this HCV-related chronic hepatitis complication. More studies are needed to validate this hypothesis.

Cost-effectiveness of increased screening and treatment of chronic hepatitis C in Korea

Background: Given a hepatitis C virus (HCV) elimination goal by 2030, World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines recommend scaling up HCV screening and treatment with highly-effective direct-acting antivirals (DAAs). This study investigated the cost-effectiveness of various screening and treatment strategies for chronic HCV patients in South Korea in patients aged over 40 as compared to currently screening only high-risk patients.Methods: A published Markov disease progression model was used with a screening/treatment decision-tree to model different screening and treatment strategies for Korean HCV patients (aged over 40) from a national payer perspective over a lifetime time horizon. The screening strategies included "screen-all" (upfront only: "once"; or upfront and age 65: "twice") or a "high-risk only" screening strategy followed by treatment. Treatment strategies included either ledipasvir/sofosbuvir (LDV/SOF), SOF + ribavirin (SOF + RBV; in GT2 only), or glecaprevir/pibrentasvir (GLE/PIB). Model inputs were sourced from published literature and costing databases and validated by Korean hepatologists.Results: Regardless of treatment strategy, a "screen all twice" scenario led to the lowest rates of advanced liver disease events compared to "screen all once" and "high-risk only" screening scenarios. In this screening scenario, treatment with LDV/SOF for GT1/2 dominates (i.e. is more effective and less4costly) LDV/SOF in GT1 and SOF + RBV in GT2, while GLE/PIB is not cost-effective relative to LDV/SOF (₩105,124,920/QALY) at a willingness-to-pay threshold of 1xGDP per capita.Conclusion: Screening all South Korean patients twice followed by LDV/SOF treatment is cost-effective as compared current high-risk screening. Adopting this strategy can help achieve WHO HCV elimination goals.

[The long-term prospective study of patients with liver cirrhosis after elimination of the hepatitis C virus]

AIM

To study liver function and portal hypertension, incidence and risk factors of liver-related complications, including hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), in patients with HCV-related liver cirrhosis achieved sustained virologic response (SVR) after direct-acting antiviral therapy.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Patients with HCV-related liver cirrhosis were followed up after achievement SVR with assessment of liver function parameters, portal hypertension, Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) and Сhild Pugh (CP) scores, complications development, including HCC, every 36 months. The median follow-up duration was 24 [18; 30] months after end of treatment.

RESULTS

At last observation, a number of cirrhotic patients with CP class A increased from 72% to 85%, with CP class B reduced from 23.5% to 12.5%, with CP class C from 4.5% to 2.5%. In 89% patients were identified a regress of liver fibrosis (from 23.5 [16.9; 28] to 15.0 [10.2; 21.3] kPa,p0.005), each third patient reduction of fibrosis stage to F2/F3. In 19 (9.5%) patients were occurred liver-related complications, including HCC (in 9 patients). Baseline high total bilirubin level (34 mol/l) (Hazard ratio (HR) 11.5, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.357.8,р0.005) and ascites (HR=17.6, 95% CI 2.1144.8,p=0.008) were independent risk factors associated with HCC development.

CONCLUSION

The risk of HCC development remains in patients with HCV-related liver cirrhosis, despite on eradication of hepatitis C virus. Therefore, these patients should continue to undergo more intensive examination (ultrasound examination and determination of alfa-fetoprotein level each 36 months), including contrast-enhanced methods of imaging, the frequency of which should be determined.

Value in Hepatitis C Virus Treatment: A Patient-Centered Cost-Effectiveness Analysis

BACKGROUND

Innovations in hepatitis C virus (HCV) therapy included in traditional comparative evaluations focus on sustained virologic response (SVR) without addressing challenges patients report beyond virologic cure. This study aims to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of HCV drug therapy with a patient-centered approach.

METHODS

An individual-based Markov model was constructed using guidance from a stakeholder advisory board (SAB), a patient Delphi panel, and published literature to evaluate direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) compared to no treatment. The United States (US) health sector and societal perspectives were considered for 10- and 20-year time horizons. Inputs for treatment costs and effectiveness reflect a generic regimen. Indirect costs used for the societal model included estimates from self-reported productivity in a matched-control sample. Beyond the traditional quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) health outcome, this study included two novel measures developed from the Delphi panel and SAB: infected life-years and workdays missed. All costs were measured in 2018 US dollars.

RESULTS

Health sector costs and QALYs were higher in the treatment group in both 10- and 20-year models. Total infected life-years and workdays missed were reduced in the treatment group for both models. When costs of absenteeism, presenteeism, and patient/caregiver time were included, the DAA intervention was cost-saving at both 10 and 20 years. Health sector results were sensitive to drug costs and utility estimates for post-SVR health states. Societal results were sensitive to presenteeism estimates and drug costs.

CONCLUSION

Treatment was cost-effective from a health sector perspective and cost-saving when including non-health costs such as patient/caregiver time and productivity.

Liver fibrosis of hepatitis C virus infection in routine hemodialysis patients in Indonesia

BACKGROUND The risk of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is increasing in patients under routine hemodialysis, but only some patients progress to liver fibrosis. This study was aimed to identify the prevalence of significant liver fibrosis in routine hemodialysis patients with hepatitis C infection as well as factors associated with liver fibrosis. METHODS This cross-sectional study was conducted in three tertiary general hospitals (Cipto Mangunkusumo Hospital, Persahabatan Hospital, and Fatmawati Hospital) in Jakarta, Indonesia, among hemodialysis patients infected with HCV. Total sampling was used from May to September 2017 in hemodialysis unit of all hospitals. Sex, age, time at first diagnosis of HCV, duration of HCV infection, duration of hemodialysis, AST level, hepatitis B virus coinfection and diabetes mellitus were analyzed in association with significant liver fibrosis. Liver fibrosis was assessed using transient elastography and considered significant if the value was ≥7.1 kPa. Chi-square, Mann–Whitney U, and Fisher’s exact tests were used. Risk model was analyzed with logistic regression. RESULTS Of the 133 hemodialysis patients infected with HCV, 71.4% of the subjects had significant liver fibrosis. In the risk model, male gender (odds ratio [OR] = 3.92; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.74–8.84; p < 0.001) and diabetes mellitus (DM) (OR = 2.85; 95% CI = 1.03–7.88; p = 0.043) were associated with significant liver fibrosis. CONCLUSIONS The prevalence of significant liver fibrosis in routine hemodialysis patients with hepatitis C infection was high. Male and DM were associated with significant liver fibrosis.

Incidence of and Risk Factors for Hepatic Encephalopathy in a Population-Based Cohort of Americans With Cirrhosis

Hepatic encephalopathy (HE) is a devastating complication of cirrhosis. Data are limited regarding the incidence of and risk factors for HE among contemporary patients in the context of the shifting epidemiology of cirrhosis. We examined a 20% random sample of U.S. Medicare enrollees with cirrhosis and Part D prescription coverage from 2008 to 2014. We modelled incident HE using demographic, clinical, and pharmacologic data. Risk factors for HE were evaluated, including demographics/socioeconomics, cirrhosis etiology, severity of liver disease, and pharmacotherapy, along with gastroenterology consultation, as time-varying covariates. Among 166,192 Medicare enrollees with cirrhosis followed for 5.25 (interquartile range [IQR], 2.00-7.00) years, the overall incidence of HE was 11.6 per 100 patient-years. The cohort's median age was 65 years (IQR, 57-72), 31% had alcohol-related cirrhosis, and 49% had likely nonalcoholic fatty liver disease cirrhosis. The two strongest associations with HE were alcohol-related cirrhosis (adjusted hazard ratio [AHR], 1.44; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.40, 1.47, relative to nonalcoholic nonviral cirrhosis) and the presence of portal hypertension (AHR, 3.42; 95% CI, 3.34, 3.50). Adjusting for confounders, benzodiazepines (AHR, 1.24; 95% CI, 1.21, 1.27), gamma aminobutyric acid (GABA)ergics (AHR, 1.17; 95% CI, 1.14, 1.21), opioids (AHR, 1.24; 95% CI, 1.21, 1.27), and proton pump inhibitors (PPIs) (AHR, 1.41; 95% CI, 1.38, 1.45) were all associated with incident HE. Only benzodiazepines, however, were associated with the risk of hospitalization with HE (incidence-rate ratio, 1.23; 95% CI, 1.20, 1.26). Conclusion: Novel data regarding the risk of HE for contemporary patients with cirrhosis are provided. The incidence of HE in an older population of Americans with cirrhosis is high, particularly among those with alcohol-related cirrhosis and portal hypertension. Several medication classes, namely PPIs, opiates, GABAergics, and benzodiazepines, represent potentially modifiable risk factors for HE.

Consensus on management of hepatitis C virus infection in resource-limited Ukraine and Commonwealth of Independent States regions

Globally, 69.6 million individuals were infected with hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection in 2016. Of the six major HCV genotypes (GT), the most predominant one is GT1, worldwide. The prevalence of HCV in Central Asia, which includes most of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), has been estimated to be 5.8% of the total global burden. The predominant genotype in the CIS and Ukraine regions has been reported to be GT1, followed by GT3. Inadequate HCV epidemiological data, multiple socio-economic barriers, and the lack of region-specific guidelines have impeded the optimal management of HCV infection in this region. In this regard, a panel of regional experts in the field of hepatology convened to discuss and provide recommendations on the diagnosis, treatment, and pre-, on-, and posttreatment assessment of chronic HCV infection and to ensure the optimal use of cost-effective antiviral regimens in the region. A comprehensive evaluation of the literature along with expert recommendations for the management of GT1-GT6 HCV infection with the antiviral agents available in the region has been provided in this review. This consensus document will help guide clinical decision-making during the management of HCV infection, further optimizing treatment outcomes in these regions.

Cost-effectiveness of pan-genotypic direct-acting antiviral regimens for treatment of chronic Hepatitis C in the United States

OBJECTIVES

Given the goal of hepatitis C virus elimination by 2030, World Health Organization guidelines recommend treatment of chronic hepatitis C (CHC) with pan-genotypic direct-acting antivirals, such as sofosbuvir/velpatasvir (SOF/VEL), SOF/VEL/voxilaprevir (VOX) or glecaprevir/pibrentasvir (GLE/PIB). The study evaluated the cost-effectiveness of pan-genotypic regimens in initial (SOF/VEL or GLE/PIB) and re-treatment (SOF/VEL/VOX or GLE/PIB+SOF+ribavirin (RBV)) of CHC.

METHODS

A Markov state-transition model projected lifetime CHC health and economic outcomes from the US payer perspective. Model inputs were sourced from clinical trials or published literature and validated by hepatologists. Model outcomes included numbers of advanced liver disease events, life-years and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained, and total lifetime costs. One-way sensitivity analyses were performed on model results.

RESULTS

SOF/VEL followed by SOF/VEL/VOX resulted in comparable cure rates to the GLE/PIB treatment pathway (99.94% vs. 99.93%, respectively). SOF-based regimens provided similar QALYs at a lower lifetime cost versus a GLE/PIB treatment pathway ($30,749 vs. $36,255), resulting in cost savings of $5,506 per patient. Results were robust in sensitivity analyses.

CONCLUSION

SOF/VEL followed by SOF/VEL/VOX leads to comparable cure rates in the overall CHC population relative to the GLE/PIB treatment pathway. Based on wholesale acquisition prices, the SOF/VEL treatment pathway led to lower lifetime costs.

Cost-effectiveness of novel regimens for Chinese patients with chronic hepatitis C

OBJECTIVE

Direct-acting antiviral agents (DAAs) have been approved for treating hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection in China. However, they are substantially more expensive. The current analysis will investigate the cost-effectiveness of novel regimens compared with pegylated interferon and ribavirin (PR) therapies for informing Chinese decision-makers.

METHODS

A Markov model was developed to measure economic and health outcomes of novel regimens for genotype 1b, 2, 3, and 6 HCV infections compared with PR treatment. Clinical, cost, and utility inputs were gathered from published sources. Discounted quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), costs, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) are shown. The uncertainty was facilitated by one-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses.

RESULTS

For genotype 1b HCV infection, the combination of paritaprevir, ritonavir, ombitasvir and dasabuvir was cost-saving compared with four competing alternatives. The ICERs of sofosbuvir plus ribavirin for genotypes 2 and 3 were lower than the threshold ($18,234/QALY). Among available strategies for patients with genotype 6, sofosbuvir in combination with ribavirin was the cost-saving alternative compared with PR. The results were robust to sensitivity analyses.

CONCLUSIONS

For both genotype 1b and 6 HCV infections in the context of Chinese patients, there were combinations of DAAs that were cost-saving compared with the usual PR treatment, and cost-effective for genotypes 2 and 3.

Grazoprevir/elbasvir in peginterferon alfa plus ribavirin experienced patients with chronic genotype 1 HCV/HIV co-infection: a non-randomized, open-label clinical trial

Background and aims: We aimed to evaluate the efficacy and tolerability of grazoprevir/elbasvir in patients with chronic genotype 1 hepatitis C virus (HCV) and HIV co-infection who experienced peginterferon alfa plus ribavirin (PegIFN/RBV) (clinicaltrials.gov NCT03098121). Methods: This non-randomized, open-label trial study was conducted in Taoyuan General Hospital. HIV-infected patients were screened for HCV antibody since June 1, 2012, and HCV and HIV co-infected patients were tested for HCV RNA. The subjects who experienced PegIFN/RBV were enrolled in the study, and of whom with chronic genotype 1a or 1b received grazoprevir 100 mg and elbasvir 50 mg in a fixed-dose combination tablet once daily with or without ribavirin for 12 to 16 weeks. Results: Of 2,419 HIV-infected patients, 40 patients with chronic genotype 1 HCV and HIV co-infection who failed PegIFN/RBV treatment were enrolled. Sixteen patients had genotype 1a and 24 patients had genotype 1b, with or without cirrhosis. The median age was 42 (41-47) years, and 5 patients (12.5%) were diagnosed with liver cirrhosis (child Pugh score A). The median CD4 count was 504 cells/μL (321-689). All patients (100%) had HIV viral load <200 copies/mL, and HCV viral load was 6.3 log10 IU/mL (3.98-7.12). At the end of treatment, all patients (100%, 40/40) had undetectable HCV viral load, and 95.0% (38/40) of patients achieved sustained virologic response at 12 weeks. Conclusion: Grazoprevir/elbasvir was effective in genotype 1 patients co-infected with HIV with or without cirrhosis. This finding is consistent with that of previous trials of this regimen in monoinfected population.

Cost-Utility Analysis of Imaging for Surveillance and Diagnosis of Hepatocellular Carcinoma

OBJECTIVE. The purpose of this study is to compare imaging-based surveillance and diagnostic strategies in patients at risk for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) while taking into account technically inadequate examinations and patient compliance. MATERIALS AND METHODS. A Markov model simulated seven strategies for HCC surveillance and diagnosis in patients with cirrhosis: strategy A, ultrasound (US) for surveillance and CT for diagnosis; strategy B, US for surveillance and complete MRI for diagnosis; strategy C, US for surveillance and CT for inadequate or positive surveillance; strategy D, US for surveillance and complete MRI for inadequate or positive surveillance; strategy E, surveillance and diagnosis with CT followed by complete MRI for inadequate surveillance; strategy F, surveillance and diagnosis with complete MRI followed by CT for inadequate surveillance; and strategy G, surveillance with abbreviated MRI followed by CT for inadequate surveillance or complete MRI for positive surveillance. Two compliance scenarios were evaluated: optimal and conservative. For each scenario, the most cost-effective strategy was based on a willingness-to-pay threshold of $50,000 (Canadian) per quality-adjusted life year (QALY). Sensitivity analyses were performed. RESULTS. Base-case analysis revealed that strategy E was the most cost-effective when compliance was optimal ($13,631/QALY), and strategy G was the most cost-effective when compliance was conservative ($39,681/QALY). Sensitivity analyses supported the base-case analysis in the optimal compliance scenario, but several parameters altered the most cost-effective strategy in the conservative compliance scenario. CONCLUSION. In an optimal compliance scenario, CT for HCC surveillance and diagnosis and complete MRI for inadequate CT was most cost-effective. In a conservative compliance scenario, abbreviated MRI may be an alternative to US-based surveillance.

Economic Consequences of Investing in Anti-HCV Antiviral Treatment from the Italian NHS Perspective: A Real-World-Based Analysis of PITER Data

OBJECTIVE

We estimated the cost consequence of Italian National Health System (NHS) investment in direct-acting antiviral (DAA) therapy according to hepatitis C virus (HCV) treatment access policies in Italy.

METHODS

A multistate, 20-year time horizon Markov model of HCV liver disease progression was developed. Fibrosis stage, age and genotype distributions were derived from the Italian Platform for the Study of Viral Hepatitis Therapies (PITER) cohort. The treatment efficacy, disease progression probabilities and direct costs in each health state were obtained from the literature. The break-even point in time (BPT) was defined as the period of time required for the cumulative costs saved to recover the Italian NHS investment in DAA treatment. Three different PITER enrolment periods, which covered the full DAA access evolution in Italy, were considered.

RESULTS

The disease stages of 2657 patients who consecutively underwent DAA therapy from January 2015 to December 2017 at 30 PITER clinical centres were standardized for 1000 patients. The investment in DAAs was considered to equal €25 million, €15 million, and €9 million in 2015, 2016, and 2017, respectively. For patients treated in 2015, the BPT was not achieved, because of the disease severity of the treated patients and high DAA prices. For 2016 and 2017, the estimated BPTs were 6.6 and 6.2 years, respectively. The total cost savings after 20 years were €50.13 and €55.50 million for 1000 patients treated in 2016 and 2017, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

This study may be a useful tool for public decision makers to understand how HCV clinical and epidemiological profiles influence the economic burden of HCV.

Cost-effectiveness and health-related outcomes of screening for hepatitis C in Korean population

BACKGROUND/AIM

In the era of direct-acting antivirals (DAA), active screening for hidden hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is important for HCV elimination. This study estimated the cost-effectiveness and health-related outcomes of HCV screening and DAA treatment of a targeted population in Korea, where anti-HCV prevalence was 0.6% in 2015.

METHODS

A Markov model simulating the natural history of HCV infection was used to examine the cost-effectiveness of two strategies: no screening vs screening and DAA treatment. Screening was performed by integration of the anti-HCV test into the National Health Examination Program. From a healthcare system's perspective, the cost-utility and the impact on HCV-related health events of one-time anti-HCV screening and DAA treatment in Korean population aged 40-65 years was analysed with a lifetime horizon.

RESULTS

The HCV screening and DAA treatment strategy increased quality-adjusted life years (QALY) by 0.0015 at a cost of $11.27 resulting in an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of $7435 per QALY gained compared with no screening. The probability of the screening strategy to be cost-effective was 98.8% at a willingness-to-pay of $27 205. Deterministic sensitivity analyses revealed the ICERs were from $4602 to $12 588 and sensitive to screening costs, discount rates and treatment acceptability. Moreover, it can prevent 32 HCV-related deaths, 19 hepatocellular carcinomas and 15 decompensated cirrhosis per 100 000 screened persons.

CONCLUSIONS

A one-time HCV screening and DAA treatment of a Korean population aged 40-65 years would be highly cost-effective, and significantly reduce the HCV-related morbidity and mortality compared with no screening.

Development and external validation of a prognostic nomogram for acute decompensation of chronic hepatitis B cirrhosis

BACKGROUND

Acute decompensation (AD) has been shown to be associated with a high mortality rate for cirrhosis patients. This study aimed to develop a prognostic nomogram to evaluating the individual prognosis for AD of cirrhosis in chronic hepatitis B (CHB).

METHODS

The nomogram was developed using data from a retrospective study on 509 patients hospitalized for AD of CHB cirrhosis from October 2008 to February 2014 at the Beijing Ditan Hospital, Capital Medical University. The predictive accuracy, discriminative ability, and clinical net benefit were evaluated by concordance index (C-index), calibration curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA). The results were validated on 620 patients consecutively enrolled from January 2005 to December 2010 at the Renji Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University,.

RESULTS

On multivariate analysis of the derivation cohort, independent factors included in the nomogram were age, previous decompensation, bacterial infection, hepatic encephalopathy, and total bilirubin. The calibration curve for the probability of survival showed good agreement between the nomogram and actual observation. The nomogram had a C-index of 0.897, which was statistically higher than the C-index values of CTP (0.793), MELD (0.821), SOFA (0.868), or the Chronic Liver Failure Consortium AD (CLIF-C AD) (0.716) scores (p <  0.001 for all). Using DCA, the nomogram also demonstrated superior net benefits over other score models. The results were confirmed in the validation cohort.

CONCLUSIONS

The proposed nomogram enables more-accurate individualized prediction of survival than MELD, CTP, SOFA, or CLIF-C AD scores for AD of CHB cirrhosis patients.

Economic evaluation of Zepatier for the management of HCV in the Italian scenario

BACKGROUND

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is a major health issue worldwide. New generation of direct-active antiviral medications is an epoch-making turning point in the management of HCV infections.

OBJECTIVE

Conducing a cost-effectiveness analysis comparing the combination of elbasvir/grazoprevir and sofosbuvir + pegylated interferon/ribavirin for the management of all HCV patients (even those in the initial stages of fibrosis).

METHODS

A Markov model was built on the natural history of the disease to assess the efficacy of the alternatives. The outcomes are expressed in terms of quality adjusted life-years (QALYs) and result in terms of incremental cost-effectiveness ratio).

RESULTS

Elbasvir/grazoprevir implies an expenditure of €21,104,253.74 with a gain of 19,287.90 QALYs and sofosbuvir + pegylated interferon/ribavirin implies an expenditure of €31,904,410.11 with a gain of 18,855.96 QALYs. Elbasvir/grazoprevir is thus a dominant strategy.

CONCLUSION

Consideration should be given to the opportunity cost of not treating patients with a lower degree of fibrosis (F0-F2).

Comparison of FIB-4 and transient elastography in evaluating liver fibrosis of chronic hepatitis C subjects in community

Background and aim

The role of non-invasive methods to evaluate fibrosis severity of chronic hepatitis C (CHC) subjects in community needs to be explored. This study investigated FIB-4 and transient elastography (TE) in staging liver fibrosis of CHC subjects in community.

Methods

A total of 905 subjects who were positive for anti-HCV antibody from five districts of Tainan City of Taiwan were invited to participate in surveillance activities for CHC. FIB-4 and TE were measured for each participant.

Results

A total of 502 subjects with detectable HCV RNA and valid TE were enrolled. The distribution of FIB-4 and TE values differed markedly. Both methods exhibited a strongest correlation in subjects with at age 50~60 years (r = 0.655, p <0.001). FIB-4 score increased proportionally with age (p <0.001), but TE did not (p = 0.142). The intraclass correlation efficient of both methods was 0.255 (p <0.001). Subjects with TE defined advanced fibrosis exhibited younger age, higher BMI, higher platelet count, lower FIB-4 score, higher incidence of fatty liver and splenomegaly, and higher controlled attenuation parameter value than those defined by FIB-4. By multivariate logistic regression analysis, higher ALT levels, higher incidence of fatty liver, and presence of splenomegaly were the independent factors associated with advanced fibrosis defined by TE rather than defined by FIB-4.

Conclusions

FIB-4 and TE defined different distribution of fibrosis stages in same HCV population. FIB-4 was deeply influenced by age whereas TE was not. TE had the advantages over than FIB-4 in strong association with splenomegaly and in detecting the role of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease in advanced fibrosis.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of Daclatasvir/Sofosbuvir for the treatment of the HCV patients failed after the first line with second generation of DAAs in Italy

BACKGROUND

Daclatasvir (DCV) combinated with Sofosbuvir (SOF) has shown good efficacy and safety profile for HCV patients. The aim was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of DCV/SOF regimen versus HCV alternative treatments for patients who failed to achieve the SVR12 after a first DAA treatment from Italian perspective (PITER cohort).

METHODS

A Markov model of HCV chronically infected patients was used to develop two scenarios: 1) DCV+ SOF versus Ledipasvir (LDV)+ SOF in Genotype (Gt)1 and Gt4; 2) DCV+ SOF versus no retreatment option in Gt1, Gt3, and Gt4. The percentage of patients who failed the first line with SOF/Simeprevir/Ribavirin (RBV) or SOF/RBV and were retreated or not according to evidences from PITER cohort, were used to populate the model. HCV resources consumption and SVR rates were quantified using PITER data. Transition probabilities and utility rates were derived from the literature. The outcomes were expressed in terms of Quality adjusted life years (QALYs). Probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA) was performed considering a cost-effectiveness threshold of € 30,000/QALY.

RESULTS

In the base-case analysis, DCV+ SOF represents a cost-effectiveness therapy with ICERs lower than the threshold. The PSA showed robust results, ICERs remain below the threshold in 94% and 99% simulations in Scenario 1 and 2, respectively.

Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Early Treatment of Chronic HCV with Sofosbuvir/Velpatasvir in Italy

BACKGROUND

Chronic Hepatitis C virus (cHCV) is a major health issue worldwide. New effective direct-acting anti-viral (DAA) drugs such as the combination sofosbuvir/velpatasvir, represent an important turning point, given the high sustained virologic response (SVR) rates associated with their use.

OBJECTIVES

To estimate the cost and effects of two different treatment strategies based on sofosbuvir/velpatasvir. Strategy 1: treating all patients, including those in the early stages of fibrosis; Strategy 2: reserving treatments for patients at more advanced stages of disease (≥ F3). The analysis compares the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of Strategy 1 versus Strategy 2 in a cohort of HCV-infected patients and a cohort of hepatitis C virus (HCV)-human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) patients.

METHODS

A Markov model simulating the natural history of the disease was built considering a 60-year time horizon and two cohorts of 1000 patients aged ≥ 35 years. Disease morbidity was classified according to the METAVIR classification. The robustness of the model was tested using deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses (PSA).

RESULTS

In both cohorts, Strategy 1 results in higher resource consumption and a greater number of quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) compared with Strategy 2. The ICERs for the cohort of HCV patients and the cohort of co-infected HCV/HIV patients ranged between €15,555-74,804/QALY and €10,708-55,138/QALY, respectively, depending on the assumed cost of the treatment. In the PSA, the ICER distribution remained below the threshold of €30,000/QALY in 96 and 97% of the scenarios in the cohorts of HCV and HCV/HIV patients, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Extending the treatment of HCV to patients at an early stage of HCV infection is estimated to be cost effective from the perspective of the Italian Healthcare System.

A risk score to predict the development of hepatic encephalopathy in a population-based cohort of patients with cirrhosis

Over 40% of patients with cirrhosis will develop hepatic encephalopathy (HE). HE is associated with decreased survival, falls, motor vehicle accidents, and frequent hospitalization. Accordingly, we aimed to develop a tool to risk-stratify patients for HE development. We studied a population-based cohort of all patients with cirrhosis without baseline HE (n = 1,979) from the Veterans Administration from Michigan, Indiana, and Ohio (January 1, 2005-December 31, 2010) using demographic, clinical, laboratory, and pharmacy data. The primary outcome was the development of HE. Risk scores were constructed with both baseline and longitudinal data (annually updated parameters) and validated using bootstrapping. The cohort had a mean age of 58.0 ± 8.3 years, 36% had hepatitis C, and 17% had ascites. Opiates, benzodiazepines, statins, and nonselective beta-blockers were taken at baseline by 24%, 13%, 17%, and 12%, respectively. Overall, 863 (43.7%) developed HE within 5 years. In multivariable models, risk factors (hazard ratio, 95% confidence interval) for HE included higher bilirubin (1.07, 1.05-1.09) and nonselective beta-blocker use (1.34, 1.09-1.64), while higher albumin (0.54, 0.48-0.59) and statin use (0.80, 0.65-0.98) were protective. Other clinical factors, including opiate and benzodiazepine use, were not predictive. The areas under the receiver operating characteristics curve for HE using the four significant variables in baseline and longitudinal models were 0.68 (0.66-0.70) and 0.73 (0.71-0.75), respectively. Model effects were validated and converted into a risk score. A score ≤0 in our longitudinal model assigns a 6% 1-year probability of HE, while a score >20 assigns a 38% 1-year risk.

CONCLUSION

Patients with cirrhosis can be stratified by a simple risk score for HE that accounts for changing clinical data; our data also highlight a role for statins in reducing cirrhosis complications including HE. (Hepatology 2017).

Differential Effect of HCV Eradication and Fibrosis Grade on Hepatocellular Carcinoma and All-cause Mortality

Whether a sustained virological response (SVR) improves long-term outcomes in chronic hepatitis C patients with earlier-stage fibrosis has not been established. We investigated the differential effect of SVR on the risk of outcomes according to hepatic fibrosis grade. Fibrosis grade was categorised using FIB-4: <1.45, low-probability of significant fibrosis; 1.45-3.25, intermediate-probability; and ≥3.25, high-probability. Primary and secondary endpoints were hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) occurrence and death, respectively. Among 1,373 included chronic hepatitis C patients, 744 patients were treated with interferon-based or -free regimens and 622 (83.6%) achieved SVR. SVR was independently associated with lower risk of HCC (vs. untreated: adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 0.165; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.077-0.350; P < 0.001) and overall death (vs. untreated; aHR, 0.146; 95% CI, 0.050-0.424; P < 0.001) during the median observation of 3.5 (interquartile range, 1.9-6.6) years. The SVR group had significantly lower risk of HCC than the untreated group among patients with intermediate-probability (n = 492: aHR, 0.171; 95% CI, 0.051-0.578; P = 0.004) and high-probability (n = 446: aHR, 0.243; 95% CI, 0.107-0.551; P < 0.001) of significant fibrosis. HRs were maintained after balancing with inverse probability weighting. SVR was associated with reduced risk of HCC development and all-cause mortality in patients with chronic hepatitis C.