Risk Stratification Based on Chronic Liver Failure Consortium Acute Decompensation Score in Patients With Child-Pugh B Cirrhosis and Acute Variceal Bleeding

Development and validation of a prognostic model for 90-day survival in patients with alcohol-associated cirrhosis and acute decompensation

BACKGROUND/PURPOSE

Patients with alcohol-associated cirrhosis and acute decompensation are considered critically ill and have a higher risk of short-term mortality. This study aimed to establish a nomogram to evaluate their 90-day survival and identify factors that affect disease progression.

METHODS

We included patients from September 2008 to December 2016 (n = 387 in the derivation group) and from January 2017 to August 2020 (n = 157 in the validation group). LASSO regression and Cox multivariate risk regression were used to analyze the influencing factors of the 90-day mortality risk, and a nomogram was constructed. The performance of a model was analyzed based on the C-index, area under the receiver operating curve, calibration curve, and decision curve analysis.

RESULTS

Total bilirubin >10 upper limit of normal, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, lymphocyte and monocyte ratios ≤2.33, white blood cells, and hemoglobin were identified as independent risk factors affecting the 90-day mortality risk of patients and the nomogram was developed. A nomogram demonstrated excellent model predictive accuracy in both the derivation and validation cohorts (C-index: 0.976 and 0.945), which was better than other commonly used liver scoring models (p < 0.05). The nomogram also performed good calibration ability and more clinical net benefit. According to the nomogram score, patients were divided into high- and low-risk groups. Mortality was significantly higher in the high-risk group than in the low-risk group (p < 0.0001).

CONCLUSION

The nomogram could accurately predict the 90-day mortality risk in patients with alcohol-associated cirrhosis and acute decompensation, helping to identify high-risk patients and personalize treatment at their first admission.

Prognosis algorithms for acute decompensation of cirrhosis and ACLF

Accurate prediction of survival in patients with cirrhosis is crucial, as patients who are unlikely to survive in the short-term need to be oriented to liver transplantation and to novel therapeutic approaches. Patients with acute decompensation of cirrhosis without or with organ dysfunction/failure, the so-called acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF), have a particularly high short-term mortality. Recognizing the specificity of this clinical situation, dedicated classifications and scores have been developed over the last 15 years, including variables (e.g. organ failures and systemic inflammation) not part of the formerly available cirrhosis severity scores, namely Child-Pugh score or MELD. For patients with acute decompensation of cirrhosis, it led to the development of a dedicated score, the Clif-C-AD score, independently validated. For more severe patients, three different scoring systems have been proposed, by European, Asian and North American societies namely Clif-C-ACLF, AARC score and NASCELD-ACLF respectively. These scores have been validated, and are widely used across the world. The differences and similarities between these scores, as well as their validation and limitations are discussed here. Even if these scores and classifications have been a step forward in favouring homogeneity between studies, and in helping making decisions for individual patients, their predictive value for mortality can still be improved as their area under the ROC curve does not exceed .8. Novel scores including biomarkers reflecting the pathophysiology of acute decompensation of cirrhosis might help reach that goal.

Efficacy of TIPS plus extrahepatic collateral embolisation in real-world data: a validation study

OBJECTIVES

The efficacy of transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) plus extrahepatic collateral embolisation (TIPS+E) in reducing rebleeding and hepatic encephalopathy (HE) post-TIPS was recently reported in a meta-analysis, but further validation is essential. This study aims to confirm the effectiveness of TIPS+E using real-world data.

METHODS

The multicentre retrospective cohort included 2077 patients with cirrhosis who underwent TIPS±E (TIPS: 631, TIPS+E: 1446) between January 2010 and December 2022. Regression and propensity score matching (PSM) were used to adjust for baseline characteristic differences. After PSM, clinical outcomes, including rebleeding, HE, survival and further decompensation (FDC), were analysed. Baseline data from all patients contributed to the construction of prognostic models.

RESULTS

After PSM, 1136 matched patients (TIPS+E: TIPS=568:568) were included. TIPS+E demonstrated a significant reduction in rebleeding (HR 0.77; 95% CI 0.59 to 0.99; p=0.04), HE (HR 0.82; 95% CI 0.68 to 0.99; p=0.04) and FDC (HR 0.85; 95% CI 0.73 to 0.99; p=0.04), comparing to TIPS. Significantly, TIPS+E also reduced rebleeding, HE and FDC in subgroup of using 8 mm diameter stents and embolising of gastric varices+spontaneous portosystemic shunts (GV+SPSS). However, there were no differences in overall or subgroup survival analysis. Additionally, the random forest models showed higher accuracy and AUROC comparing to other models. Controlling post-TIPS portal pressure gradient (pPPG) within 7 mm Hg

CONCLUSION

Our real-world data validation confirms the high efficacy of TIPS+E in reducing rebleeding and HE, particularly when using 8 mm diameter stents, embolising GV+SPSS and maintaining an optimal pPPG.

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Key Words

• GASTROINTESTINAL BLEEDING
• HEPATIC ENCEPHALOPATHY
• INTERVENTIONAL RADIOLOGY
• LIVER CIRRHOSIS
• PORTAL HYPERTENSION

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MESH Headings

• Humans
• Portasystemic Shunt, Transjugular Intrahepatic
• Retrospective Studies
• Gastrointestinal Hemorrhage/surgery
• Esophageal and Gastric Varices/surgery
• Liver Cirrhosis/complications
• Liver Cirrhosis/surgery
• Hepatic Encephalopathy

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Grants

• National Natural Science Foundation of China
• Department of Health of Shandong Province

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Affiliation(s)

Lianhui Zhao Gastroenterology, Shandong Provincial Hospital, Shandong University, Jinan, Shandong Province, People's Republic of China Gastroenterology, Shandong Provincial Hospital Affiliated to Shandong First Medical University, Jinan, Shandong Province, People's Republic of China
Jun Tie Department of Liver Diseases and Digestive Interventional Radiology, National Clinical Research Centre for Digestive Diseases and Xijing Hospital of Digestive Diseases, Fourth Military Medical University, Xian, Shaanxi, People's Republic of China
Guangchuan Wang Gastroenterology, Shandong Provincial Hospital, Shandong University, Jinan, Shandong Province, People's Republic of China Gastroenterology, Shandong Provincial Hospital Affiliated to Shandong First Medical University, Jinan, Shandong Province, People's Republic of China Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan, Shandong Province, People's Republic of China
Zhengjie Li School of Automation, Qingdao University, Qingdao, Shandong Province, People's Republic of China
Jiao Xu Department of Liver Diseases and Digestive Interventional Radiology, National Clinical Research Centre for Digestive Diseases and Xijing Hospital of Digestive Diseases, Fourth Military Medical University, Xian, Shaanxi, People's Republic of China
Yuzheng Zhuge Gastroenterology, Nanjing Drum Tower Hospital, Affiliated Hospital of Medical School, Nanjing University, Nanjing, Jiangsun Province, People's Republic of China
Feng Zhang Gastroenterology, Nanjing Drum Tower Hospital, Affiliated Hospital of Medical School, Nanjing University, Nanjing, Jiangsun Province, People's Republic of China
Hao Wu Gastroenterology, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, Sichuan Province, People's Republic of China
Bo Wei Gastroenterology, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, Sichuan Province, People's Republic of China
Hui Xue Gastroenterology, First Affiliated Hospital of Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, Shaanxi Province, China
Peijie Li Gastroenterology, First Affiliated Hospital of Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, Shaanxi Province, China
Wei Wu Gastroenterology, First Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University, Wenzhou, Zhejiang Province, People's Republic of China
Chao Chen Gastroenterology, First Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University, Wenzhou, Zhejiang Province, People's Republic of China
Qiong Wu Gastroenterology, Shandong Provincial Hospital Affiliated to Shandong First Medical University, Jinan, Shandong Province, People's Republic of China
Yifu Xia Gastroenterology, Shandong Provincial Hospital, Shandong University, Jinan, Shandong Province, People's Republic of China
Xiubin Sun Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan, Shandong Province, People's Republic of China
Chunqing Zhang Gastroenterology, Shandong Provincial Hospital, Shandong University, Jinan, Shandong Province, People's Republic of China Gastroenterology, Shandong Provincial Hospital Affiliated to Shandong First Medical University, Jinan, Shandong Province, People's Republic of China

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TIPS: indications, Contraindications, and Evaluation

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

This review summarizes the current and emerging indications, contraindications, and evaluation for TIPS. In the last three decades of use, there have been substantial changes and progress in this field, including the use of controlled-expansion, covered stents, which has broadened the clinical uses of TIPS.

RECENT FINDINGS

Recent findings have rapidly expanded the indications for TIPS, including emerging uses in hepatorenal syndrome, hepatopulmonary syndrome and before abdominal surgery. The widespread use of controlled-expansion, covered stents has decreased rates of post-TIPS hepatic encephalopathy, opening TIPS to a larger patient population. Overall, with newer stent technology and more research in this area, the clinical utility and potential of TIPS has rapidly expanded. Going forward, a renewed focus on randomized-control trials and long-term outcomes will be a crucial element to selecting appropriate TIPS recipients and recommending emerging indications for this procedure.

Acute-on-chronic liver failure is independently associated with higher mortality for cirrhotic patients with acute esophageal variceal hemorrhage: Retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Acute esophageal variceal hemorrhage (AEVH) is a common complication of cirrhosis and might precipitate multi-organ failure, causing acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF).

AIM

To analyze if the presence and grading of ACLF as defined by European Society for the Study of the Liver-Chronic Liver Failure (EASL-CLIF) is able to predict mortality in cirrhotic patients presenting AEVH.

METHODS

Retrospective cohort study executed in Hospital Geral de Caxias do Sul. Data from medical records from 2010 to 2016 were obtained by searching the hospital electronic database for patients who received terlipressin. Medical records were reviewed in order to determine the diagnosis of cirrhosis and AEVH, including 97 patients. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis was used for univariate analysis and a stepwise approach to the Cox regression for multivariate analysis.

RESULTS

All- cause mortality for AEVH patients was 36%, 40.2% and 49.4% for 30-, 90- and 365-day, respectively. The prevalence of ACLF was 41.3%. Of these, 35% grade 1, 50% grade 2 and 15% grade 3. In multivariate analysis, the non-use of non-selective beta-blockers, presence and higher grading of ACLF and higher Model for End-Stage Liver Disease scores were independently associated with higher mortality for 30-day with the addition of higher Child-Pugh scores for 90-day period.

CONCLUSION

Presence and grading of ACLF according to the EASL-CLIF criteria was independently associated with higher 30- and 90-day mortality in cirrhotic patients admitted due to AEVH.

To TIPS or Not to TIPS in High Risk of Variceal Rebleeding and Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure

Variceal bleeding is a consequence of severe portal hypertension in patients with liver cirrhosis. Although the rate of bleeding has decreased over time, variceal bleeding in the presence of acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) carries a high risk of treatment failure and short-term mortality. Treatment and/or removal of precipitating events (mainly bacterial infection and alcoholic hepatitis) and decrease of portal pressure may improve outcome of patients with acute decompensation or ACLF. Transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunts (TIPSs), especially in the preemptive situation, have been found to efficiently control bleeding, prevent rebleeding, and reduce short-term mortality. Therefore, TIPS placement should be considered as an option in the management of ACLF patients with variceal bleeding.

Validation of the CLIF-C OF Score and CLIF-C ACLF Score to Predict Transplant-Free Survival in Patients with Liver Cirrhosis and Concomitant Need for Intensive Care Unit Treatment

Both the Chronic Liver Failure Consortium (CLIF-C) organ failure score (OFs) and the CLIF-C acute-on-chronic-liver failure (ACLF) score (ACLFs) were developed for risk stratification and to predict mortality in patients with liver cirrhosis and ACLF. However, studies validating the predictive ability of both scores in patients with liver cirrhosis and concomitant need for intensive care unit (ICU) treatment are scarce. The aim of the present study is to validate the predictive ability of the CLIF-C OFs and CLIF-C ACLFs regarding the rationale of ongoing ICU treatment and to investigate their predictive ability regarding 28-days (short-), 90-days (medium-), and 365-days (long-term) mortality in patients with liver cirrhosis treated in an ICU. Patients with liver cirrhosis and acute decompensation (AD) or ACLF and concomitant need for ICU treatment were retrospectively analyzed. Predictive factors for mortality, defined as transplant-free survival, were identified using multivariable regression analyses and the predictive ability of CLIF-C OFs, CLIF-C ACLFs, MELD score, and AD score (ADs) was assessed by determining the AUROC. Of 136 included patients, 19 patients presented with AD and 117 patients with ACLF at ICU admission. In multivariable regression analyses, CLIF-C OFs as well as CLIF-C ACLFs were independently associated with higher short-, medium-, and long-term mortality after adjusting for confounding variables. The predictive ability of the CLIF-C OFs in the total cohort in short-term was 0.687 (95% CI 0.599-0.774). In the subgroup of patients with ACLF, the respective AUROCs were 0.652 (95% CI 0.554-0.750) and 0.717 (95% CI 0.626-0.809) for the CLIF-C OFs and for the CLIF-C ACLFs, respectively. ADs performed well in the subgroup of patients without ACLF at ICU admission with an AUROC of 0.792 (95% CI 0.560-1.000). In the long-term, the AUROCs were 0.689 (95% Cl 0.581-0.796) and 0.675 (95% Cl 0.550-0.800) for CLIF-C OFs and CLIF-C ACLFs, respectively. The predictive ability of CLIF-C OFs and CLIF-C ACLFs was relatively low to predict short- and long-term mortality in patients with ACLF with concomitant need for ICU treatment. However, the CLIF-C ACLFs may have special merit in judging futility of further ICU treatment.

Changes in dynamic and static brain fluctuation distinguish minimal hepatic encephalopathy and cirrhosis patients and predict the severity of liver damage

Purpose

Minimal hepatic encephalopathy (MHE) is characterized by mild neuropsychological and neurophysiological alterations that are not detectable by routine clinical examination. Abnormal brain activity (in terms of the amplitude of low-frequency fluctuation (ALFF) has been observed in MHE patients. However, little is known concerning temporal dynamics of intrinsic brain activity. The present study aimed to investigate the abnormal dynamics of brain activity (dynamic ALFF; dALFF) and static measures [static ALFF; (sALFF)] in MHE patients and to strive for a reliable imaging neuromarkers for distinguishing MHE patients from cirrhosis patients. In addition, the present study also investigated whether intrinsic brain activity predicted the severity of liver damage.

Methods

Thirty-four cirrhosis patients with MHE, 28 cirrhosis patients without MHE, and 33 age-, sex-, and education-matched healthy controls (HCs) underwent resting-state magnetic resonance imaging (rs-fMRI). dALFF was estimated by combining the ALFF method with the sliding-window method, in which temporal variability was quantized over the whole-scan timepoints and then compared among the three groups. Additionally, dALFF, sALFF and both two features were utilized as classification features in a support vector machine (SVM) to distinguish MHE patients from cirrhosis patients. The severity of liver damage was reflected by the Child–Pugh score. dALFF, sALFF and both two features were used to predict Child–Pugh scores in MHE patients using a general linear model.

Results

Compared with HCs, MHE patients showed significantly increased dALFF in the left inferior occipital gyrus, right middle occipital gyrus, and right insula; increased dALFF was also observed in the right posterior lobe of the cerebellum (CPL) and right thalamus. Compared with HCs, noMHE patients exhibited decreased dALFF in the right precuneus. In contrast, compared with noMHE patients, MHE patients showed increased dALFF in the right precuneus, right superior frontal gyrus, and right superior occipital gyrus. Furthermore, the increased dALFF values in the left precuneus were positively associated with poor digit-symbol test (DST) scores (r = 0.356, p = 0.038); however, dALFF in the right inferior temporal gyrus (ITG) was negatively associated with the number connection test–A (NCT-A) scores (r = -0.784, p = 0.000). A significant positive correlation was found between dALFF in the left inferior occipital gyrus (IOG) and high blood ammonia levels (r = 0.424, p = 0.012). Notably, dALFF values yielded a higher classification accuracy than sALFF values in distinguishing MHE patients from cirrhosis patients. Importantly, the dALFF values predicted the Child–Pugh score (r = 0.140, p = 0.030), whereas sALFF values did not in the current dataset. Combining two features had high accuracy in classification in distinguishing MHE patients from cirrhotic patients and yielded prediction in the severity of liver damage.

Conclusion

These findings suggest that combining dALFF and sALFF features is a useful neuromarkers for distinguishing MHE patients from cirrhosis patients and highlights the important role of dALFF feature in predicting the severity of liver damage in MHE.

Development and validation of a practical prognostic nomogram for evaluating inpatient mortality of cirrhotic patients with acute variceal hemorrhage

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES

Cirrhotic patients with acute variceal hemorrhage (AVH) have high short-term mortality. Established prognostic scores are seldom applicable clinically, partially because they need external validation or contain subjective variables. We aimed to develop and validate a practical prognostic nomogram based on objective predictors to predict prognosis for cirrhotic patients with AVH.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

We enrolled 308 AVH patients with cirrhosis from our center as the derivation cohort to develop a new nomogram using logistic regression and validated it in cohorts of patients from Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC) III (n = 247) and IV (n = 302).

RESULTS

International normalized ratio (INR), albumin (ALB) and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) were identified as predictors for inpatient mortality and a nomogram was constructed based on them. The nomogram discriminated well in both derivation and MIMIC-III/-IV validation cohorts with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROCs) of 0.846 and 0.859/0.833, respectively and showed a better agreement between expected and observed outcomes (Hosmer-Lemeshow tests, all comparisons, P > 0.05) than other scores in all cohorts. Our nomogram had the lowest Brier scores (0.082/0.114/0.119 in training/MIMIC-III/MIMIC-IV) and highest R² (0.367/0.393/0.346 in training/MIMIC-III/MIMIC-IV) compared to the recalibrated model for end-stage liver disease (MELD), MELD-hepatic encephalopathy (MELD-HE) and cirrhosis acute gastrointestinal bleeding (CAGIB) scores in all cohorts.

CONCLUSIONS

We developed a practical prognostic nomogram using easily verified indicators available in initial patient evaluation, which may serve as a reliable tool to accurately predict inpatient mortality for cirrhotic patients with AVH.

External validation of Chronic Liver Failure-Consortium Acute Decompensation score in the risk stratification of cirrhotic patients hospitalized with acute variceal bleeding

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Acute variceal bleeding (AVB) is a serious life-threatening complication of cirrhosis. This study aimed to validate the predictive value of Chronic Liver Failure-Consortium Acute Decompensation score (CLIF-C ADs) in the risk stratification of cirrhotic patients hospitalized with AVB.

METHODS

A total of 235 cirrhotic patients with AVB and without acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) were retrospectively enrolled. The discrimination, calibration, overall performance and clinical utility of CLIF-C AD were evaluated and compared with traditional prognostic scores.

RESULTS

The area under the receiver operating characteristics curve of CLIF-C AD was significantly or numerically higher than that of Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) (0.871 vs. 0.737, P  = 0.03), Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) (0.871 vs. 0.757, P  = 0.1) and MELD-Sodium (MELD-Na) (0.871 vs. 0.822, P  = 0.45). The calibration of CLIF-C AD was excellent and superior to that of CTP, MELD and MELD-Na. The brier score/ R2 value for CLIF-C AD, CTP, MELD and MELD-Na were 0.045/0.278, 0.051/0.090, 0.050/0.123 and 0.046/0.207, respectively, suggesting a superior overall performance of CLIF-C AD to traditional scores. In decision curve analysis, the standardized net benefit of CLIF-C AD was higher to that of traditional scores. Patients with CLIF-C ADs ≤48, 49-59 and ≥60 were, respectively, stratified into low, moderate and high-risk groups (6-week mortality: 2.7% vs. 12.5% vs. 37.5%, P  < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

The prediction performance and clinical utility of CLIF-C AD for 6-week mortality in cirrhotic patients with AVB and without ACLF are excellent and superior to traditional prognostic scores. The new risk stratification with CLIF-C ADs may be useful in guiding rational management of AVB.

Improvement of sarcopenia is beneficial for prognosis in cirrhotic patients after TIPS placement

BACKGROUND

The relationship between the improvement of sarcopenia and post-TIPS prognosis has not been fully investigated.

AIMS

To assess what level of sarcopenia improvement is required for potential benefits to post-TIPS prognosis.

METHODS

In this retrospective study, 109 cirrhotic patients with sarcopenia who underwent TIPS between February 2016 and January 2021 were included. The change in skeletal muscle index (SMI) at 6 months post-TIPS was assessed and the correlations of SMI improvement with clinical outcomes were analyzed.

RESULTS

During follow up, 59 (65.6%) patients reversed from sarcopenic to non-sarcopenic, and the cumulative mortality (8.5 % vs. 26.0%, log rank P = 0.013) and incidence of overt hepatic encephalopathy (OHE) (18.6% vs. 44.0%, log rank P = 0.004) in patients who reversed were significantly lower than who did not. SMI improvement rate was identified as an independent risk factor for mortality and OHE. In addition, the cumulative survival rate of patients with sarcopenia reversal or SMI improvement rate > 10.4% was significantly higher than that of patients with an SMI improvement rate ≤ 10.4% (92.5% vs. 58.6%, log rank P < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

Reversal of sarcopenia or significant SMI improvement by TIPS could reduce the risk of death and OHE.

Development of a prognostic nomogram and risk stratification system for upper thoracic esophageal squamous cell carcinoma

Background

The study aimed to develop a nomogram model to predict overall survival (OS) and construct a risk stratification system of upper thoracic esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC).

Methods

Newly diagnosed 568 patients with upper ESCC at Fujian Medical University Cancer Hospital were taken as a training cohort, and additional 155 patients with upper ESCC from Sichuan Cancer Hospital Institute were used as a validation cohort. A nomogram was established using Cox proportional hazard regression to identify prognostic factors for OS. The predictive power of nomogram model was evaluated by using 4 indices: concordance statistics (C-index), time-dependent ROC (ROCt) curve, net reclassification index (NRI) and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI).

Results

In this study, multivariate analysis revealed that gender, clinical T stage, clinical N stage and primary gross tumor volume were independent prognostic factors for OS in the training cohort. The nomogram based on these factors presented favorable prognostic efficacy in the both training and validation cohorts, with concordance statistics (C-index) of 0.622, 0.713, and area under the curve (AUC) value of 0.709, 0.739, respectively, which appeared superior to those of the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) staging system. Additionally, net reclassification index (NRI) and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) of the nomogram presented better discrimination ability to predict survival than those of AJCC staging. Furthermore, decision curve analysis (DCA) of the nomogram exhibited greater clinical performance than that of AJCC staging. Finally, the nomogram fairly distinguished the OS rates among low, moderate, and high risk groups, whereas the OS curves of clinical stage could not be well separated among clinical AJCC stage.

Conclusion

We built an effective nomogram model for predicting OS of upper ESCC, which may improve clinicians' abilities to predict individualized survival and facilitate to further stratify the management of patients at risk.

Transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt for portal hypertension: 30 years experience from China

Liver diseases are a major cause of illness and death worldwide. In China, liver diseases, primarily viral hepatitis, affect approximately 300 million people, thus having a major impact on the global burden of liver diseases. Portal hypertension is the most severe complication of chronic liver diseases, including ascites, hepatic encephalopathy and bleeding from gastroesophageal varices. Transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) represents a very effective treatment of these complications. Since its introduction 30 years ago in China, the use of TIPS has evolved and has played an increasingly important role in the management of the complications of portal hypertension. This review will focus on the history, current application and management of complications of TIPS in China.

A novel prognostic model for patients with colon adenocarcinoma

BACKGROUND

Colon adenocarcinoma (COAD) is a highly heterogeneous disease, which makes its prognostic prediction challenging. The purpose of this study was to investigate the clinical epidemiological characteristics, prognostic factors, and survival outcomes of patients with COAD in order to establish and validate a predictive clinical model (nomogram) for these patients.

METHODS

Using the SEER (Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results) database, we identified patients diagnosed with COAD between 1983 and 2015. Disease-specific survival (DSS) and overall survival (OS) were assessed using the log-rank test and Kaplan-Meier approach. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed using Cox regression, which identified the independent prognostic factors for OS and DSS. The nomograms constructed to predict OS were based on these independent prognostic factors. The predictive ability of the nomograms was assessed using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and calibration plots, while accuracy was assessed using decision curve analysis (DCA). Clinical utility was evaluated with a clinical impact curve (CIC).

RESULTS

A total of 104,933 patients were identified to have COAD, including 31,479 women and 73,454 men. The follow-up study duration ranged from 22 to 88 months, with an average of 46 months. Multivariate Cox regression analysis revealed that age, gender, race, site_recode_ICD, grade, CS_tumor_size, CS_extension, and metastasis were independent prognostic factors. Nomograms were constructed to predict the probability of 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS and DSS. The concordance index (C-index) and calibration plots showed that the established nomograms had robust predictive ability. The clinical decision chart (from the DCA) and the clinical impact chart (from the CIC) showed good predictive accuracy and clinical utility.

CONCLUSION

In this study, a nomogram model for predicting the individualized survival probability of patients with COAD was constructed and validated. The nomograms of patients with COAD were accurate for predicting the 1-, 3-, and 5-year DSS. This study has great significance for clinical treatments. It also provides guidance for further prospective follow-up studies.

Pre-emptive TIPSS in Acute Variceal Bleeding: Current Status, Controversies, and Future Directions

Acute variceal bleeding (AVB) is associated with significant short-term morbidity and mortality. Pre-emptive transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (p-TIPSS) is recommended to prevent rebleeding in AVB patients with a high risk of rebleeding. Despite the benefit of preventing rebleeding and de-novo ascites, the uptake of p-TIPSS remains low because logistic challenges in the real-world setting. In this review, we summarize the current evidence and controversies on p-TIPSS including patient selection for p-TIPSS, particularly in the setting of NASH cirrhosis and acute-on-chronic liver failure, the role of sarcopenia, renal impairment in the setting of p-TIPSS. Finally, we summarize both pharmacological and nonpharmacological strategies to optimize outcomes in patients undergoing p-TIPSS.

Predicting the survival benefit of liver transplantation in HBV-related acute-on-chronic liver failure: an observational cohort study

Background

Liver transplantation (LT) is an effective therapy for acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) but is limited by organ shortages. We aimed to identify an appropriate score for predicting the survival benefit of LT in HBV-related ACLF patients.

Methods

Hospitalized patients with acute deterioration of HBV-related chronic liver disease (n = 4577) from the Chinese Group on the Study of Severe Hepatitis B (COSSH) open cohort were enrolled to evaluate the performance of five commonly used scores for predicting the prognosis and transplant survival benefit. The survival benefit rate was calculated to reflect the extended rate of the expected lifetime with vs. without LT.

Findings

In total, 368 HBV-ACLF patients received LT. They showed significantly higher 1-year survival than those on the waitlist in both the entire HBV-ACLF cohort (77.2%/52.3%, p < 0.001) and the propensity score matching cohort (77.2%/27.6%, p < 0.001). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) showed that the COSSH-ACLF II score performed best (AUROC 0.849) at identifying the 1-year risk of death on the waitlist and best (AUROC 0.864) at predicting 1-year outcome post-LT (COSSH-ACLFs/CLIF-C ACLFs/MELDs/MELD-Nas: AUROC 0.835/0.825/0.796/0.781; all p < 0.05). The C-indexes confirmed the high predictive value of COSSH-ACLF IIs. Survival benefit rate analyses showed that patients with COSSH-ACLF IIs 7-10 had a higher 1-year survival benefit rate from LT (39.2%-64.3%) than those with score <7 or >10. These results were prospectively validated.

Interpretation

COSSH-ACLF IIs identified the risk of death on the waitlist and accurately predicted post-LT mortality and survival benefit for HBV-ACLF. Patients with COSSH-ACLF IIs 7-10 derived a higher net survival benefit from LT.

Funding

This study was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 81830073, No. 81771196) and the National Special Support Program for High-Level Personnel Recruitment (Ten-thousand Talents Program).

A comprehensive review of prognostic scoring systems to predict survival after transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt placement

Patient prognosis after transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) placement is relatively poor and highly heterogeneous; therefore, a prognostic scoring system is essential for survival prediction and risk stratification. Conventional scores include the Child–Turcotte–Pugh (CTP) and model for end‐stage liver disease (MELD) scores. The CTP score was created empirically and displayed a high correlation with post‐TIPS survival. However, the inclusion of subjective parameters and the use of discrete cut‐offs limit its utility. The advantages of the MELD score include its statistical validation and objective and readily available predictors that contribute to its broad application in clinical practice to predict post‐TIPS outcomes. In addition, multiple modifications of the MELD score, by incorporating additional predictors (e.g., MELD‐Sodium and MELD‐Sarcopenia scores), adjusting coefficients (recalibrated MELD score), or combined (MELD 3.0), have been proposed to improve the prognostic ability of the standard MELD score. Despite several updates to conventional scores, a prognostic score has been proposed (based on contemporary data) specifically for outcome prediction after TIPS placement. However, this novel score (the Freiburg index of post‐TIPS survival, FIPS) exhibited inconsistent discrimination in external validation studies, and its superiority over conventional scores remains undetermined. Additionally, several tools display potential for application in specific TIPS indications (e.g., bilirubin‐platelet grade for refractory ascites), and biomarkers of systemic inflammation, nutritional status, liver disease progression, and cardiac decompensation may provide additional value, but require further validation. Future studies should consider the effect of TIPS placement when exploring predictors, as TIPS is a pathophysiological approach that substantially alters systemic hemodynamics and ameliorates bacterial translocation and malnutrition.

HDL-C levels added to the MELD score improves 30-day mortality prediction in Asian patients with cirrhosis

Objectives

Lower high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) levels have been observed in chronic liver disease patients. The aim of this study was to develop a model that incorporates HDL-C levels and the Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) score to predict 30-day mortality in Asian cirrhosis patients.

Methods

Cirrhosis patients were recruited from two hospitals in this retrospective observational study. Propensity score matching was used. The model’s performance was evaluated, including its ability to predict 30-day mortality, accuracy, and clinical utility. Net reclassification improvement (NRI) and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) were calculated.

Results

The HDL-C + MELD model showed good ability to predict 30-day mortality (area under the curve, 0.784; sensitivity, 0.797; specificity, 0.632), which was better than that of the MELD score alone. It also showed good calibration and a net benefit for all patients, which was better than that of the MELD score, except at the threshold probability. NRI and IDI results confirmed that adding HDL-C levels to the MELD score improved the model’s performance in predicting 30-day mortality.

Conclusion

We added HDL-C levels to the MELD score to predict 30-day mortality in Asian patients with cirrhosis. The HDLC + MELD model shows good ability to predict 30-day mortality and clinical utility.

Prediction of biochemical nonresolution in patients with chronic drug-induced liver injury: A large multicenter study

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

To clarify high-risk factors and develop a nomogram model to predict biochemical resolution or biochemical nonresolution (BNR) in patients with chronic DILI.

APPROACH AND RESULTS

Retrospectively, 3655 of 5326 patients with chronic DILI were enrolled from nine participating hospitals, of whom 2866 underwent liver biopsy. All of these patients were followed up for over 1 year and their clinical characteristics were retrieved from electronic medical records. The endpoint was BNR, defined as alanine aminotransferase or aspartate aminotransferase >1.5× upper limit of normal or alkaline phosphatase >1.1× ULN, at 12 months from chronic DILI diagnosis. The noninvasive high-risk factors for BNR identified by multivariable logistic regression were used to establish a nomogram, which was validated in an independent external cohort. Finally, 19.3% (707 of 3655) patients presented with BNR. Histologically, with the increase in liver inflammation grades and fibrosis stages, the proportion of BNR significantly increased. The risk of BNR was increased by 21.3-fold in patients with significant inflammation compared to none or mild inflammation (p < 0.001). Biochemically, aspartate aminotransferase and total bilirubin, platelets, prothrombin time, sex, and age were associated with BNR and incorporated to construct a nomogram model (BNR-6) with a concordance index of 0.824 (95% CI, 0.798-0.849), which was highly consistent with liver histology. These results were successfully validated both in the internal cohort and external cohort.

CONCLUSIONS

Significant liver inflammation is a robust predictor associated with biochemical nonresolution. The established BNR-6 model provides an easy-to-use approach to assess the outcome of chronic DILI.

Prediction of Long-Term Survival Outcome by Lymph Node Ratio in Patients of Parotid Gland Cancer: A Retrospective study

Background

Lymph node ratio (LNR) has been reported to reliably predict cancer-specific survival (CSS) in parotid gland cancer (PGC). Our study was designed to validate the significance of LNR in patients with PGC.

Methods

Patients diagnosed with stage I–IV PGC were enrolled from Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results database (SEER, N = 3529), which is the training group, and Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center database (SYSUCC, N = 99), the validation group. We used X-tile software to choose the optimal cutoff value of LNR; then, univariable and multivariable analyses were performed, assessing the association between LNR and CSS.

Results

The optimal cutoff value of LNR was 0.32 by X-tile based on 3529 patients from SEER. Cox proportional hazard regression analysis revealed better CSS for patients with LNR ≤ 0.32 (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 1.612, 95% confidence interval [95% CI] 1.286–2.019; p < 0.001) compared with patients with LNR > 0.32 in SEER. In the SYSUCC cohort, patients with LNR ≤ 0.32 also had better CSS over patients with LNR > 0.32 (p < 0.001). In N2 and N3 stage groups, patients with LNR ≤ 0.32 had superior CSS outcomes over those with the LNR > 0.32 group, but this benefit was absent in the N1 stage group.

Conclusions

In conclusion, the lymph node ratio turned out to be an independent prognostic factor for cancer-specific survival of PGC in this study. This valuable information could help clinicians to evaluate the prognosis of PGC and suggest that adequate lymph node dissection is necessary.

Development, verification, and comparison of a risk stratification model integrating residual cancer burden to predict individual prognosis in early-stage breast cancer treated with neoadjuvant therapy

Background

A favorable model for predicting disease-free survival (DFS) and stratifying prognostic risk in breast cancer (BC) treated with neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) is lacking. The aim of the current study was to formulate an excellent model specially for predicting prognosis in these patients.

Patients and methods

Between January 2012 and December 2015, 749 early-stage BC patients who received NAC in Xijing hospital were included. Patients were randomly assigned to a training cohort (n = 563) and an independent cohort (n = 186). A prognostic model was created and subsequently validated. Predictive performance and discrimination were further measured and compared with other models.

Results

Clinical American Joint Committee on Cancer stage, grade, estrogen receptor expression, human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2) status and treatment, Ki-67 expression, lymphovascular invasion, and residual cancer burden were identified as independent prognostic variables for BC treated with NAC. The C-index of the model consistently outperformed other available models as well as single independent factors with 0.78, 0.80, 0.75, 0.82, and 0.77 in the training cohort, independent cohort, luminal BC, HER2-positive BC, and triple-negative BC, respectively. With the optimal cut-off values (280 and 360) selected by X-tile, patients were categorized as low-risk (total points ≤280), moderate-risk (280 < total points ≤ 360), and high-risk (total points >360) groups presenting significantly different 5-year DFS of 89.9%, 56.9%, and 27.7%, respectively.

Conclusions

In patients with BC, the first model including residual cancer burden index was demonstrated to predict the survival of individuals with favorable performance and discrimination. Furthermore, the risk stratification generated by it could determine the risk level of recurrence in whole early-stage BC cohort and subtype-specific cohorts, help tailor personalized intensive treatment, and select comparable study cohort in clinical trials.

•

Establishing the first risk stratification nomogram for BC treated with NAC and validate its performance in BC cohorts.

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Incorporating residual cancer burden index into predictive nomogram for the first time.

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Predictive model can be utilized to predict DFS for all early-stage BC treated with NAC.

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Performing a continuous rather than categorized model to predict individual survival.

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The risk stratification can be used to select comparable population in trial design.

Modified arteriosclerosis score predicts the outcomes of diabetic kidney disease

BACKGROUND

The significance of renal arteriosclerosis in the prediction of the renal outcomes of diabetic kidney disease (DKD) remains undetermined.

METHODS

We enrolled 174 patients with DKD from three centres from January 2010 to July 2017. The severity and extent of arteriosclerosis were analysed on sections based on dual immunohistochemical staining of CD31 and α-smooth muscle actin. An X-tile plot was used to determine the optimal cut-off value. The primary endpoint was renal survival (RS), defined as the duration from renal biopsy to end-stage renal disease or death.

RESULTS

The baseline estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) of 135 qualified patients was 45 (29 ~ 70) ml/min per 1.73 m², and the average 24-h urine protein was 4.52 (2.45 ~ 7.66) g/24 h. The number of glomeruli in the biopsy specimens was 21.07 ± 9.7. The proportion of severe arteriosclerosis in the kidney positively correlated with the Renal Pathology Society glomerular classification (r = 0.28, P < 0.012), interstitial fibrosis and tubular atrophy (IFTA) (r = 0.39, P < 0.001), urine protein (r = 0.213, P = 0.013), systolic BP (r = 0.305, P = 0.000), and age (r = 0.220, P = 0.010) and significantly negatively correlated with baseline eGFR (r = - 0.285, P = 0.001). In the multivariable model, the primary outcomes were significantly correlated with glomerular class (HR: 1.72, CI: 1.15 ~ 2.57), IFTA (HR: 1.96, CI: 1.26 ~ 3.06) and the modified arteriosclerosis score (HR: 2.21, CI: 1.18 ~ 4.13). After risk adjustment, RS was independently associated with the baseline eGFR (HR: 0.97, CI: 0.96 ~ 0.98), urine proteinuria (HR: 1.10, CI: 1.04 ~ 1.17) and the modified arteriosclerosis score (HR: 2.01, CI: 1.10 ~ 3.67), and the nomogram exhibited good calibration and acceptable discrimination (C-index = 0.82, CI: 0.75 ~ 0.87).

CONCLUSIONS

The severity and proportion of arteriosclerosis may be helpful prognostic indicators for DKD.

Prediction of overall survival in patients with Stage I esophageal cancer: A novel web-based calculator

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

In this study, we aimed to develop a convenient web-based calculator to predict the overall survival (OS) of patients with Stage I esophageal cancer (EC).

METHODS

Data of 1664 patients, between 2004 and 2015, were extracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression was employed to sift variables; subsequently, Cox proportional hazards regression model was built. We applied the enhanced bootstrap validation to appraise the discrimination and calibration of the model. Clinical benefit was measured using decision curve analysis (DCA). Thereafter, a web-based calculator based on the model, which could be used to predict the 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS rates, was developed.

RESULTS

Race, age, histologic type, grade, N stage, and therapeutic methods were selected. C-indices of the prediction model in the training and validation groups were 0.726 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.679-0.773) and 0.724 (95% CI, 0.679-0.769), respectively. Calibration curves showed good agreement between the groups. The DCA demonstrated that the prediction model is clinically useful.

CONCLUSIONS

The prediction model we developed showed a good performance in calculating the OS rates in patients with Stage I EC. The web-based calculator is available at https://championship.shinyapps.io/dynnomapp/.

Prognostic Significance of Regional/Systemic Metabolic Parameters on 18F-FDG PET in Pulmonary Lymphoepithelioma-Like Carcinoma

Background

Pulmonary lymphoepithelioma-like carcinoma (LELC) is a rare subtype of lung cancer with less than 700 cases being reported in the literature, and no specialized treatment guidelines have been established. The prognostic significance of metabolic parameters on ¹⁸F-FDG PET in pulmonary LELC still remains unknown.

Methods

From July 2011 to September 2020, 76 pulmonary LELC patients undergoing pre-treatment ¹⁸F-FDG PET imaging were enrolled, and PET parameters including maximum standard uptake value (SUVmax), metabolic tumor volume (MTV), and total lesion glycolysis (TLG) were calculated. In addition, whole-body tumor burdens were categorized into primary tumor lesion (PRL), thoracic lymph-node lesion (TRLN), and distant metastasis (DM) for respective metabolic parameters acquisition. ROC curves were generated to evaluate the predictive performance of the PET parameters, and correlations between tumor burdens of the different regional lesions were analyzed using linear correlation analysis. The prognostic significance for progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) was assessed using univariate and multivariate survival analyses.

Results

Tumor stage, pre-/post-treatment serum EBV-DNA copies, SUVmax (cutoff 17.5), MTV, and TLG were significantly associated with PFS and OS in univariate analysis. MTV and TLG (AUC = 0.862 and 0.857, respectively) showed significantly higher predictive value than SUVmax (AUC = 0.754) and remained independent prognostic indicators for PFS in multivariate analysis (P = 0.026 and 0.019, respectively). Besides, non-colinearity was detected between metabolic burdens of the different regional lesions. MTV_-PRL, MTV_-DM, TLG_-PRL, and TLG_-DM were identified to be independent prognostic factors for PFS and OS, whereas MTV_-TRLN and TLG_-TRLN were not.

Conclusion

The study demonstrated that MTV and TLG had independent prognostic significance for pulmonary LELC, which supported the incorporation of ¹⁸F-FDG PET imaging into clinical treatment protocols for pulmonary LELC and implied multi-disciplinary cooperation for primary and distant metastatic lesions to further improve prognosis.

Prognostic Value of the CLIF-C AD Score in Patients With Implantation of Transjugular Intrahepatic Portosystemic Shunt

Prognostic assessment of patients with liver cirrhosis allocated for implantation of a transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) is a challenging task in clinical practice. The aim of our study was to assess the prognostic value of the CLIF-C AD (Acute Decompensation) score in patients with TIPS implantation. Transplant-free survival (TFS) and 3-month mortality were reviewed in 880 patients who received de novo TIPS implantation for the treatment of cirrhotic portal hypertension. The prognostic value of the CLIF-C AD score was compared with the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score, Child-Pugh score, and albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) score using Harrell's C concordance index. The median TFS after TIPS implantation was 40.0 (34.6-45.4) months. The CLIF-C AD score (c = 0.635 [0.609-0.661]) was superior in the prediction of TFS in comparison to MELD score (c = 0.597 [0.570-0.623], P = 0.006), Child-Pugh score (c = 0.579 [0.552-0.606], P < 0.001), and ALBI score (c = 0.573 [0.545-0.600], P < 0.001). However, the CLIF-C AD score did not perform significantly better than the MELD-Na score (c = 0.626 [0.599-0.653], P = 0.442). There were no profound differences in the scores' ranking with respect to indication for TIPS implantation, stent type, or underlying liver disease. Subgroup analyses revealed that a CLIF-C AD score >45 was a predictor of 3-month mortality in the supposed low-risk group of patients with a MELD score ≤12 (14.7% vs. 5.1%, P < 0.001). Conclusion: The CLIF-C AD score is suitable for prognostic assessment of patients with cirrhotic portal hypertension receiving TIPS implantation. In the prediction of TFS, the CLIF-C AD score is superior to MELD score, Child-Pugh score, and ALBI score but not the MELD-Na score.

A Parsimonious Prognostic Model and Heat Map for Predicting Survival Following Adjuvant Radiotherapy in Parotid Gland Carcinoma With Lymph Node Metastasis

OBJECTIVES

To construct a simplified prognostic risk model to predict overall survival after adjuvant radiotherapy for parotid gland carcinoma patients with stage T1-4aN1-3M0.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We evaluated 879 patients who were pathological diagnosed as stage T1-4aN1-3M0 parotid gland cancer. Those eligible patients treated with parotidectomy and neck lymph node dissection between 2004 and 2015 in the Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results database. All cases received adjuvant radiotherapy. Independent prognostic factors included in the original model were identified by Cox regression analysis. The primary endpoint was overall survival. The model's prediction power was evaluated by the concordance index. The entire cohort was categorized into new low- and high-risk groups using X-tile software according to the results of prognostic model. Kaplan-Meier method was used to depict the survival curves. And the statistical significance was determined by log-rank test. Besides, a heat map was visually described the association between the survival time and 2 most significant prognostic factors.

RESULTS

In the univariable and multivariate analyses, 4 independent factors for overall survival were age, tumor size, pTNM stage, and the number of positive lymph nodes, which were all selected in the parsimonious prognostic model. The concordance indices of the prognostic model and pTNM stage were 0.652 and 0.565, respectively. Patients in the low-risk group had better overall survival over patients in the high-risk group [unadjusted hazard ratio =  2.578, 95% confidence interval 2.095-3.172, P  < 0.001]. The results of the heat map revealed that patients with smaller tumor size and fewer positive lymph nodes had much longer survival time.

CONCLUSIONS

This parsimonious prognostic model could estimate the long-term survival after adjuvant radiotherapy for parotid gland carcinoma with stage T1-4aN1-3N0M0. The tools may be valuable to guide multidisciplinary team in making treatment decisions.