Outcome prediction for patients with cirrhosis of the liver in a medical ICU: a comparison of the APACHE scores and liver-specific scoringsystems

Correlation of cardiac troponin T and APACHE III score with all-cause in-hospital mortality in critically ill patients with acute pulmonary embolism

Pulmonary embolism (PE) is a fatal condition particularly in critically ill patients. We determined the association among the cardiac troponin T (cTnT) level, acute physiologic and chronic health evaluation (APACHE III) scoring system, and in-hospital mortality in critically ill patients with acute PE. A total of 501 patients with PE were initially enrolled. According to the multivariable logistic regression model for in-hospital mortality, the odds ratio of the cTnT level and APACHE III score was 1.96 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.18–3.24, P = 0.008) and 1.03 (95% CI = 1.02–1.05, P < 0.001), respectively. The area under the curve (AUC) of cTnT and APACHE III score for in-hospital mortality was 0.630 (95% CI = 0.586–0.672, P = 0.03) and 0.740 (95% CI = 0.699–0.778, P = 0.02), respectively. The discriminatory cTnT and APACHE III threshold values for in-hospital mortality were 0.08 ng/L and 38 score, respectively; the sensitivities and specificities of cTnT were 46.48 and 83.10%, respectively, whereas those of the APACHE III score were 74.88 and 54.19%, respectively. The cTnT and APACHE III scores were combined in the logistic analysis model, and a regression equation was derived to calculate the in-hospital mortality. The AUC was found to increase to 0.788 (95% CI = 0.734–0.840, P = 0.025). The sensitivity and specificity increased to 84.5 and 71.4%, respectively. The cTnT and APACHE III scores exhibited a significant association with in-hospital mortality of critically ill patients with PE. In conclusion, these parameters in combination can significantly improve the in-hospital mortality prediction.

Predictors of Outcome of Cirrhotic Patients Requiring Invasive Mechanical Ventilation: Experience From a Non-Transplant Tertiary Care Hospital in Pakistan

Background

Patients with known liver cirrhosis, irrespective of the etiology, have poor outcomes when put on invasive mechanical ventilation in an intensive care unit (ICU) setting. The clinical situation becomes even more complicated when such patients are managed in a non-transplant center. Various factors are associated with poor outcomes, and hence, various scoring systems are available to help determine the prognosis in patients with liver cirrhosis. These scoring systems are broadly classified into two categories, namely, ICU-specific scoring systems and liver disease-specific scoring systems. There is a dearth of data from Pakistan regarding which score better determines the prognosis of patients with liver cirrhosis admitted to the ICU. In this study, we aimed to determine the outcome of cirrhotic patients requiring invasive mechanical ventilation in a non-transplant tertiary care hospital in Pakistan using ICU-specific and liver disease-specific scoring systems.

Methodology

A retrospective study design was applied to a record of 88 cirrhotic patients admitted to the medical ICU of a tertiary care teaching hospital in Karachi, Pakistan, from January 2016 to November 2016. Patients with acute hepatitis were excluded. Data on patients’ characteristics, the reason for intubation, hepatic encephalopathy, the need for vasopressor support, and the duration of ICU and hospital stay were collected. Moreover, the first-day Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II, Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA), Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP), and Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) scores were calculated, with mortality being the primary outcome measure.

Results

The most common etiology was hepatitis C (52.3%, 46/88). The most common reason for intubation was airway protection (57.9%, 51/88). Overall mortality was 71.6% (63/88). On univariate analysis, CTP score >10, MELD score >18, hepatic encephalopathy, bilirubin, prothrombin time, presence of tense ascites, and APACHE II were significantly associated with mortality. On multivariate analysis, CTP score >10 (odd ratio = 21; 95% confidence interval (CI): 4-104; p < 0.001) was an independent predictor of mortality. Area under curve was 0.89 (95% CI = 0.82-0.96) for CTP, 0.86 (95% CI = 0.77-0.95) for MELD, 0.81 (95% CI = 0.69-0.92) for APACHE II, and 0.81 (95% CI = 0.71-0.91) for SOFA in predicting mortality.

Conclusions

CTP and MELD scores are better predictors of short-term mortality in patients with liver cirrhosis requiring invasive mechanical ventilation compared to APACHE II and SOFA scores. CTP score >10 was an independent predictor of mortality.

Prevalence of acute liver dysfunction and impact on outcome in critically ill patients with hematological malignancies: a single-center retrospective cohort study

Patients with hematological malignancies (HM) often require ICU admission, and acute respiratory or renal failure are then independent risk factors for mortality. Data are scarce on acute liver dysfunction (ALD), despite HM patients cumulating risk factors. The objective of this retrospective cohort study was to assess the prevalence of ALD in critically ill HM patients and its impact on outcome. Data of all patients with HM admitted to the medical ICU between 2008 and 2018 were extracted from electronic medical records. ALD was defined by ALT > 165 U/L, AST > 230 U/L, or total bilirubin > 4 mg/dL. Univariate and multivariate logistic regressions were used to analyze hospital mortality. Charts of survivors with ALD were reviewed to assess impact of ALD on subsequent anti-cancer treatment. We included 971 patients (60% male), age 64 (54-72) years, of whom 196 (20%) developed ALD. ALD patients were younger, more frequently had liver cirrhosis or acute leukemia, and had increased severity of illness and vital organ support needs. ALD was associated with hospital mortality in univariate (OR 4.14, 95% CI 2.95-5.80, p < 0.001) and multivariate analysis (OR 1.86, 95% CI 1.07-3.24, p = 0.03). Hospital mortality was 46% in ALD patients; among 106 survivors, a third of patients requiring therapy received it as previously planned, and half of the patients were alive at 1 year. In summary, in a large population of critically ill patients with hematological malignancies, 20% developed ALD, which was an independent risk factor for hospital mortality and occasionally altered further anti-cancer treatment.

Echinocandins for management of invasive candidiasis in patients with liver disease and liver transplantation

Candida species remains one of the most important causes of opportunistic infections worldwide. Invasive candidiasis (IC) is associated with considerable morbidity and mortality in liver disease (LD) patients if not treated promptly. Echinocandins are often recommended as a first-line empirical treatment for managing IC and can especially play a critical role in managing IC in LD patients. However, advanced LD patients are often immunocompromised and critically ill. Hence altered pharmacokinetics, drug interactions as well as tolerance issues of antifungal treatments are a concern in these patients. This comprehensive review examines the epidemiology, risk factors and diagnosis of IC in patients with LD and evaluates differences between three available echinocandins for treating this group of patients.

Evaluation of a Short Course of Antimicrobial Therapy for Complicated Intra-Abdominal Infections in Critically Ill Surgical Patients

BACKGROUND

The optimal duration of antimicrobial therapy for treatment of complicated intra-abdominal infections (cIAI) in critically ill surgical patients is unknown. Recent evidence suggests that a short (four-day) course of therapy may be effective, however data in severely critically ill patients are limited.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

A single-center, retrospective, cohort study was conducted at a tertiary academic medical center. Adult patients admitted to the surgical intensive care unit (SICU) with cIAI between December 2011 and July 2015 were enrolled. Patients undergoing transplantation and those with less than 24 h in the SICU were excluded. Patients were divided into two groups, short (≤ 7 d) and long (> 7 d) antimicrobial therapy. The primary outcome was treatment failure, which was defined as a composite of recurrent cIAI, secondary extra-abdominal infection, and/or in-hospital mortality from any cause. Categorical and continuous data were analyzed with χ² and Mann-Whitney U tests, respectively. Binary logistic regression was performed to determine factors associated with treatment failure and mortality.

RESULTS

Of 1,679 patients screened, 240 were included, 103 in the short and 137 in the long group. Patients in the short and long groups received a median of 5 and 14 d of therapy, respectively (p < 0.001). Treatment failure occurred less frequently with a short duration of therapy (39% versus 63%, p < 0.001) and it occurred two days sooner after source control in patients receiving the shorter courses of antimicrobial therapy (short, median 6 d, interquartile range [IQR] 3-9; long, 8 d, IQR 6-14; p < 0.001). Logistic regression demonstrated that a long duration of therapy was associated with treatment failure (odds ratio [OR] 2.186, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.251-3.820, p = 0.006), but not with mortality (OR 0.738, 95% CI 0.329-1.655, p = 0.461).

CONCLUSIONS

In critically ill surgical patients with cIAI, a short duration of antimicrobial therapy after source control resulted in similar outcomes to previously published studies, providing support for the safety of this approach in critically ill patients.

Predicting Mortality of Patients With Sepsis: A Comparison of APACHE II and APACHE III Scoring Systems

Background

Acute Physiology, Age and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II and III scores were developed in 1985 and 1991, respectively, and are used mainly for critically ill patients of all disease categories admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU). They differ in how chronic health status is assessed, in the number of physiologic variables included (12 vs. 17), and in the total score. These two scoring systems have not been compared in predicting hospital mortality in patients with sepsis.

Methods

We retrospectively identified all septic patients admitted to our 54-bed medical-surgical ICU between June 2009 and February 2014 using the APACHE outcomes database. We calculated correlation coefficients for APACHE II and APACHE III scores in predicting hospital mortality. Receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curves were also used to assess the mortality predictions.

Results

We identified a total of 2,054 septic patients. Average APACHE II score was 19 ± 7, and average APACHE III score was 68 ± 28. ICU mortality was 11.8% and hospital mortality was 18.3%. Both APACHE II (r = 0.41) and APACHE III scores (r = 0.44) had good correlations with hospital mortality. There was no statistically significant difference between the two correlations (P = 0.1). ROC area under the curve (AUC) was 0.80 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.78 - 0.82) for APACHE II, and 0.83 (95% CI: 0.81 - 0.85) for APACHE III, suggesting that both scores have very good discriminative powers for predicting hospital mortality.

Conclusions

This study shows that both APACHE II and APACHE III scores in septic patients were very strong predictors of hospital mortality. APACHE II was as good as APACHE III in predicting hospital mortality in septic patients.

Predicting mortality of patients with cirrhosis admitted to medical intensive care unit: An experience of a single tertiary center

BACKGROUND AND STUDY AIMS

Prognosis for patients with cirrhosis admitted to a medical intensive care unit (MICU) is poor and no previous studies have been published from Qatar or other countries in the region to investigate this issue. The objective of this study was to assess the predictors for in-hospital mortality and admission of cirrhotic patients to MICU in a single tertiary hospital in Qatar.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

All adult cirrhotic MICU patients hospitalized from 2007 through 2012 to Hamad General Hospital-Qatar were included. We compared them to cirrhotic patients admitted to medical wards during same period of time. All data were recorded and analyzed with respect to demographic parameters, clinical features and laboratory as well as radiology characteristics on day one of admission to MICU. Cirrhosis diagnosis was established either with a liver biopsy or the combination of physical, laboratory and radiologic findings. Predictors of mortality were defined by logistic regression analysis.

RESULTS

The cohort comprised 109 cirrhotic MICU patients (86.2% males), and their mean age±SD was 51.6±11.5. MICU-cirrhotic patients had longer hospital stays than medical wards-cirrhotic patients (p=0.01). Admission with severe hepatic encephalopathy, upper gastrointestinal bleeding and SOFA (Sepsis Related Organ Failure Assessment) score were the independent predicting factors for MICU admission. Mortality was higher for the MICU-cirrhotic group than medical wards group (27 (24.8%) deaths vs. 12 (5.3%) deaths, respectively, p=0.001). In multivariate logistic regression analyses, older age>60years (p=0.04), APACH-II score (p=0.001) and MELD score (p=0.02) were independent predicting factors for overall mortality.

CONCLUSION

Severe hepatic encephalopathy, upper gastrointestinal bleeding and SOFA score predict MICU admission of cirrhotic patients. Among MICU cirrhotic patients, older age, APACH-II score and MELD score predict mortality.

A medical cost estimation with fuzzy neural network of acute hepatitis patients in emergency room

Taiwan is an area where chronic hepatitis is endemic. Liver cancer is so common that it has been ranked first among cancer mortality rates since the early 1980s in Taiwan. Besides, liver cirrhosis and chronic liver diseases are the sixth or seventh in the causes of death. Therefore, as shown by the active research on hepatitis, it is not only a health threat, but also a huge medical cost for the government. The estimated total number of hepatitis B carriers in the general population aged more than 20 years old is 3,067,307. Thus, a case record review was conducted from all patients with diagnosis of acute hepatitis admitted to the Emergency Department (ED) of a well-known teaching-oriented hospital in Taipei. The cost of medical resource utilization is defined as the total medical fee. In this study, a fuzzy neural network is employed to develop the cost forecasting model. A total of 110 patients met the inclusion criteria. The computational results indicate that the FNN model can provide more accurate forecasts than the support vector regression (SVR) or artificial neural network (ANN). In addition, unlike SVR and ANN, FNN can also provide fuzzy IF-THEN rules for interpretation.

Immunotherapy in the treatment and prevention of infection in acute-on-chronic liver failure

Chronic liver disease, depicted by gradual destruction and fibrosis of the liver, is a condition with high and probably increasing prevalence worldwide. Its deterioration, acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF), is characterized by an in-hospital mortality of up to 65%. Infectious complications are the main precipitants eliciting ACLF and concurrently the main cause of death from ACLF. Patients have a marked susceptibility to bacterial infections, which is thought to arise a consequence of an inadequate immune response to microbial challenge, termed immuneparesis. The pathophysiologic mechanisms remain poorly understood. Treatments aimed at restoring the patients' immune function may prevent onset of ACLF and death from secondary infections. A number of drugs approved for patients with liver disease bear immunomodulatory potential such as albumin, glucocorticoids, N-acetylcysteine. Specific targets have been defined that may lead to development of new immunotherapeutic agents. Here, we summarize the pathophysiology of immuneparesis in ACLF and drug candidates to restore immune function and improve survival in the future.

Serum wnt5a is a predictor for the prognosis of acute on chronic hepatitis B liver failure

OBJECTIVES

To find a biomarker to predict the prognosis of acute on chronic hepatitis B liver failure (ACHBLF).

METHODS

Expression gene profiles in wnt pathway were determined in serum from 63 patients with ACHBLF, 60 patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) and 30 healthy controls (HCs).

RESULTS

Serum wnt5a concentration of 1.553 ng/ml showed a poor prognosis with a sensitivity of 69.23% and a specificity of 83.33% in ACHBLF patients.

CONCLUSIONS

Serum wnt5a gene expression might be a potential biomarker for predicting the prognosis of ACHBLF.

Comparison of scoring systems and outcome of patients admitted to a liver intensive care unit of a tertiary referral centre with severe variceal bleeding

BACKGROUND

Acute variceal haemorrhage (AVH) is associated with significant mortality.

AIMS

To determine outcome and factors associated with hospital mortality (HM) in patients with AVH admitted to intensive care unit (ICU) and to compare outcomes of patients requiring transfer to a tertiary ICU (transfer group, TG) to a local in-patient group (LG).

METHODS

A retrospective study of all adult patients (N = 177) admitted to ICU with AVH from 2000-2008 was performed.

RESULTS

Median age was 48 years (16-80). Male represented 58%. Median MELD score was 16 (6-39), SOFA score was 8 (6-11). HM was higher in patients who had severe liver disease or critical illness measured by MELD, SOFA, APACHE II scores and number of failed organs (NFO), P < 0.05. Patients with day-1 lactate ≥ 2 mmol/L had increased HM (P < 0.001). MELD score performed as well as APACHE II, SOFA and NFO (P < 0.001) in predicting HM (AUROC = 0.84, 0.81, 0.79 and 0.82, respectively P > 0.05 for pair wise comparisons). Re-bleeding was associated with increased HM (56.9% vs. 31.6%, P = 0.002). The TG (n = 124) had less severe liver disease and critical illness and consequently had lower HM than local patients (32% vs. 57%, P = 0.002). TG patients with ≥2 endoscopies prior to transfer had increased 6-week mortality (P = 0.03). Time from bleeding to transfer ≥3 days was associated with re-bleeding (OR = 2.290, P = 0.043).

CONCLUSIONS

MELD score was comparable to ICU prognostic models in predicting mortality. Blood lactate was also predictive of hospital mortality. Delays in referrals and repeated endoscopy were associated with increased re-bleeding and mortality in this group.

The Royal Free Hospital score: a calibrated prognostic model for patients with cirrhosis admitted to intensive care unit. Comparison with current models and CLIF-SOFA score

OBJECTIVES

Prognosis for patients with cirrhosis admitted to intensive care unit (ICU) is poor. ICU prognostic models are more accurate than liver-specific models. We identified predictors of mortality, developed a novel prognostic score (Royal Free Hospital (RFH) score), and tested it against established prognostic models and the yet unvalidated Chronic Liver Failure-Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (CLIF-SOFA) model.

METHODS

Predictors of mortality were defined by logistic regression in a cohort of 635 consecutive patients with cirrhosis admitted to ICU (1989-2012). The RFH score was derived using a 75% training and 25% validation set. Predictive accuracy and calibration were evaluated using area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) and goodness-of-fit χ(2) for the RFH score, as well as for SOFA, Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD), Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE II), and Child-Pugh. CLIF-SOFA was applied to a recent subset (2005-2012) of patients.

RESULTS

In-hospital mortality was 52.3%. Mortality improved over time but with a corresponding reduction in acuity of illness on admission. Predictors of mortality in training set, which constituted the RFH score, were the following: bilirubin, international normalized ratio, lactate, alveolar arterial partial pressure oxygen gradient, urea, while variceal bleeding as indication for admission conferred lesser risk. Classification accuracy was 73.4% in training and 76.7% in validation sample and did not change significantly across different eras of admission. The AUROC for the derived model was 0.83 and the goodness-of-fit χ(2) was 3.74 (P=0.88). AUROC for SOFA was 0.81, MELD was 0.79, APACHE II was 0.78, and Child-Pugh was 0.67. In 2005-2012 cohort, AUROC was: SOFA: 0.74, CLIF-SOFA: 0.75, and RFH: 0.78. Goodness-of-fit χ(2) was: SOFA: 6.21 (P=0.63), CLIF-SOFA: 9.18 (P=0.33), and RFH: 2.91 (P=0.94).

CONCLUSIONS

RFH score demonstrated good discriminative ability and calibration. Internal validation supports its generalizability. CLIF-SOFA did not perform better than RFH and the original SOFA. External validation of our model should be undertaken to confirm its clinical utility.

Prognostic scores for cirrhotic patients admitted to an intensive care unit: which consequences for liver transplantation?

Mortality is increased in cirrhotic patients admitted in ICU whatever the admission reason. Prognosis scores assessed in critically ill cirrhotic patients in ICU can be classified in three main categories: liver-specific (CTP and MELD) scores, general (SAPS II and APACHE) scores, and organ failure (OSF and SOFA) scores. The components of the liver-specific scores can be influenced by the acute disease indicating the admission to ICU but those of the non liver-specific scores can be influenced by the underlying liver cirrhosis. Many studies reported that organ failure scores are the best predictors of outcome in cirrhotic patients in ICU. We may wonder if cirrhotic patients with acute organ failures should receive prioritization for organ allocation to save their life or should be denied for a potential futile LT. According to recent studies, the SOFA score is associated with a higher risk of death for patients waiting for LT but could not be associated with a worse outcome after LT. It becomes of paramount importance to correctly identify the cirrhotic patients who will maximally benefit from LT after admission to ICU. The EASL-CLIF Consortium defines the CLIF-SOFA score, redefining the SOFA score with cut-off levels based on mortality prediction. The CLIF-SOFA could represent the ideal score in ICU since it is based on organ failures with cut-off values specifically identified in cirrhotic patients. The validation of the CLIF-SOFA score in critically ill cirrhotic patients admitted to ICU and its usefulness to identify patients who could benefit from LT should be the next steps.

APACHE II score is superior to SOFA, CTP and MELD in predicting the short-term mortality in patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF)

OBJECTIVE

The aim of the study was to assess the performance of various prognostic scores including the acute physiology and chronic health evaluation (APACHE II), sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA), Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) and model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) scores in predicting short-term mortality in patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF).

METHODS

Altogether 100 consecutive patients with ACLF were evaluated prospectively. The diagnosis of ACLF was based on the Asian-Pacific Association for the Study of the Liver criteria except for the inclusion of non-hepatic insults as acute events. Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values, and diagnostic accuracy for predicting short-term mortality was calculated for APACHE II, SOFA, CTP and MELD in all patients and Maddrey's discriminant function (DF) and Glasgow alcoholic hepatitis scores (GAHS) for patients with alcoholic hepatitis only.

RESULTS

Most patients had alcohol-related cirrhosis and alcoholic hepatitis as acute insults for ACLF. A total of 53 patients either died or left hospital in very sick status and were confirmed to have died the same day after leaving hospital. Overall, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of APACHE II was higher than those of MELD, SOFA and CTP scores for predicting short-term mortality. Even for patients with alcoholic hepatitis, APACHE II performed better than DF and GAHS.

CONCLUSIONS

Short-term mortality is high in patients with ACLF. APACHE II scoring system is superior to other prognostic scores in predicting its short-term mortality.

Dynamic data during hypotensive episode improves mortality predictions among patients with sepsis and hypotension

OBJECTIVES

To determine if a prediction rule for hospital mortality using dynamic variables in response to treatment of hypotension in patients with sepsis performs better than current models.

DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study.

SETTING

All ICUs at a tertiary care hospital.

PATIENTS

Adult patients admitted to ICUs between 2001 and 2007 of whom 2,113 met inclusion criteria and had sufficient data.

INTERVENTIONS

None.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

We developed a prediction algorithm for hospital mortality in patients with sepsis and hypotension requiring medical intervention using data from the Multiparameter Intelligent Monitoring in Intensive Care II. We extracted 189 candidate variables, including treatments, physiologic variables and laboratory values collected before, during, and after a hypotensive episode. Thirty predictors were identified using a genetic algorithm on a training set (n=1500) and validated with a logistic regression model on an independent validation set (n=613). The final prediction algorithm used included dynamic information and had good discrimination (area under the receiver operating curve=82.0%) and calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow C statistic=10.43, p=0.06). This model was compared with Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation IV using reclassification indices and was found to be superior with an Net Reclassification Improvement of 0.19 (p<0.001) and an Integrated Discrimination Improvement of 0.09 (p<0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Hospital mortality predictions based on dynamic variables surrounding a hypotensive event is a new approach to predicting prognosis. A model using these variables has good discrimination and calibration and offers additional predictive prognostic information beyond established ones.

Review article: towards a considered and ethical approach to organ support in critically-ill patients with cirrhosis

BACKGROUND

Increasing numbers of patients are being admitted to hospital with decompensated chronic liver disease in the UK. A significant proportion will develop complicating extra-hepatic organ dysfunction, but the selection of those who should be admitted to intensive care is complex and challenging. Alcohol-related liver disease also presents complex ethical dilemmas.

AIM

To review recent survival analyses and explore differences in secondary and tertiary care; to highlight strengths and weaknesses of prognostic models, therapeutic advances and shifts in prognostic expectation. We also aim to explore the ethical challenges presented by addiction and self-injury in an area of limited resource.

METHODS

We searched PubMed for articles discussing 'cirrhosis', 'prognosis', 'critical illness', 'organ failure', 'renal failure', 'alcohol', 'ethics' and 'addiction'. We also explored particular ethical dilemmas encountered by the authors and colleagues.

RESULTS

Prognosis has improved in many cirrhotic complications and historically poor outcomes in tertiary care may reflect a more complex patient cohort. Previously 'untreatable' complications are now being managed successfully. Estimates of survival are more accurate after a 48-h period of supportive care. Physicians are not best placed to make judgments with regard to deservingness, moral responsibility, rationing and access to organ support in cases of acute deterioration related to alcoholism, and the case for denying support must be made on purely medical grounds.

CONCLUSIONS

An early, aggressive approach to organ support is justified. Further discussions between hepatologists and critical care physicians are required to determine acceptable burden-to-benefit ratios for prolonged intensive care support in young alcoholic patients.

Acute-on chronic liver failure

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is an increasingly recognised entity encompassing an acute deterioration of liver function in patients with cirrhosis, which is usually associated with a precipitating event and results in the failure of one or more organs and high short term mortality. Prospective data to define this is lacking but there is a large body of circumstantial evidence suggesting that this condition is a distinct clinical entity. From the pathophysiologic perspective, altered host response to injury and infection play important roles in its development. This review focuses upon the current understanding of this syndrome from the clinical, prognostic and pathophysiologic perspectives and indicates potential biomarkers and therapeutic targets for intervention.

Role of predisposition, injury, response and organ failure in the prognosis of patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure: a prospective cohort study

INTRODUCTION

Acute deterioration of cirrhosis is associated with high mortality rates particularly in the patients who develop organ failure (OF), a condition that is referred to as acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF), which is currently not completely defined. This study aimed to determine the role of predisposing factors, the nature of the precipitating illness and inflammatory response in the progression to OF according to the PIRO (predisposition, injury, response, organ failure) concept to define the risk of in-hospital mortality.

METHODS

A total of 477 patients admitted with acute deterioration of cirrhosis following a defined precipitant over a 5.5-year period were prospectively studied. Baseline clinical, demographic and biochemical data were recorded for all patients and extended serial data from the group that progressed to OF were analysed to define the role of PIRO in determining in-hospital mortality.

RESULTS

One hundred and fifty-nine (33%) patients developed OF, of whom 93 patients died (58%) compared with 25/318 (8%) deaths in the non-OF group (P < 0.0001). Progression to OF was associated with more severe underlying liver disease and inflammation. In the OF group, previous hospitalisation (P of PIRO); severity of inflammation and lack of its resolution (R of PIRO); and severity of organ failure (O of PIRO) were associated with significantly greater risk of death. In the patients who recovered from OF, mortality at three years was almost universal.

CONCLUSIONS

The results of this prospective study shows that the occurrence of OF alters the natural history of cirrhosis. A classification based on the PIRO concept may allow categorization of patients into distinct pathophysiologic and prognostic groups and allow a multidimensional definition of ACLF.

Predicting in-hospital mortality among critically ill patients with end-stage liver disease

PURPOSE

Critically-ill patients with end-stage liver disease (ESLD) are at high risk for death during intensive care unit hospitalization, and currently available prognostic models have limited accuracy in this population. We aimed to identify variables associated with in-hospital mortality among critically ill ESLD patients and to develop and validate a simple, parsimonious model for bedside use.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We performed a retrospective chart review of 653 intensive care unit admissions for ESLD patients; modeled in-hospital mortality using multivariable logistic regression; and compared the predictive ability of several different models using the area under receiver operating characteristic (AU-ROC) curves.

RESULTS

Multivariable predictors of in-hospital mortality included Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) score, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II score, mechanical ventilation, and gender; there was also an interaction between MELD score and gender (P < .02). MELD alone had better discrimination (AU-ROC 0.83) than APACHE II alone (AU-ROC 0.76), and adding mechanical ventilation to MELD achieved the single largest increase in model discrimination (AU-ROC 0.85; P < .01). In a parsimonious, 2-predictor model, higher MELD scores (OR 1.14 per 1-point increase; 95% CI 1.11-1.16), and mechanical ventilation (OR 6.20; 95% CI 3.05-12.58) were associated with increased odds of death. Model discrimination was also excellent in the validation cohort (AU-ROC 0.90).

CONCLUSIONS

In critically ill ESLD patients, a parsimonious model including only MELD and mechanical ventilation is more accurate than APACHE II alone for predicting in-hospital mortality. This simple bedside model can provide clinicians and patients with valuable prognostic information for medical decision-making.

Improvement in the prognosis of cirrhotic patients admitted to an intensive care unit, a retrospective study

OBJECTIVE

To examine how the outcomes of cirrhotic patients admitted to an ICU have changed over time.

METHODS

A retrospective study in a medical ICU during two separate 3-year periods [period 1 (P1): 1995-1998 and period 2 (P2): 2005-2008].

RESULTS

A total of 56 cirrhotic patients were admitted during P1 and 138 during P2, accounting for 2.3 and 4.5% of the total ICU admissions (P<0.01). Patients' characteristics were markedly different between the two periods: previous functional status improved (Knaus scale, A/B/C/D: P1 - 7.1%/53.6%/35.7%/3.6% vs. P2 - 28.2%/47.8%/22.5%/1.5%, P<0.01), the number of comorbidities decreased (Charlson: 1.79±2.22 vs. 1.02±1.40, P=0.02), the severity of cirrhosis increased [Child-Pugh: 8 (7-13) vs. 11 (8-13), P=0.04; Model for End-Stage Liver Disease: 16 (12-28) vs. 22 (15-31), P=0.02], and acute organ dysfunctions increased (Sequential Organ Failure Assessment: 7.3±5.6 vs. 11.3±5.5, P<0.01). The crude in-ICU mortality was similar during the two periods (39.3 vs. 41.3%, P=0.92). However, after adjustment for severity, in-ICU mortality was markedly decreased during P2 (odds ratio: 0.36 [0.15; 0.88], P=0.02).

CONCLUSION

Cirrhotic patients admitted to the ICU have an improved outcome despite increased severity of liver disease. This improvement is associated with a higher selection according to their previous functional status and comorbidities.

Serum lactate level predict mortality in elderly patients with cirrhosis

BACKGROUND

Cirrhotic patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) usually have multi-organ failure. Multiple organ failure entails a very poor outcome in all intensive care patients. Cirrhotic patients show high morbidity and mortality rates compared with other critically ill patients. Severity scores have been developed for cirrhotic patients admitted to ICU. The main aim of this study was to determine whether lactate level gives any predictive value for mortality in cirrhotic elderly patients admitted to the ICU.

METHODS

In all the patients enrolled, a diagnosis of cirrhosis was confirmed either histologically or by resorting to clinical, laboratory, and ultrasonographic findings. During this period, patients with cirrhosis were admitted to the ICU with varying indications. Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP), Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD), Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE II) and Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) scores and lactate were compared between deceased and discharged patients.

RESULTS

A total of 90 consenting patients were enrolled in this study. The mean age of all the patients was 69 ± 5.919. We detected etiological factors for cirrhosis as HBV, HCV, alcohol, and cryptogenic cirrhosis. Hepatorenal syndrome and spontaneous bacterial peritonitis were significantly higher in patients who died than in those who were discharged from the ICU (p values were 0.01 and 0.028, respectively). Lactate level, CTP, APACHE II, MELD and SOFA scores were significantly higher in patients who died than in those who were discharged from the ICU (p values were 0.002,  <  0.001, < 0.001, and < 0.001, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

Many factors may be useful as a predictor of mortality in ICU in elderly patients with cirrhosis. In terms of prognostic value, the lactate level and APACHE II score are the two best predictive factors in cirrhotic elderly patients admitted to the ICU.

Granulocyte colony-stimulating factor mobilizes CD34(+) cells and improves survival of patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) develops in patients with chronic liver disease and has high mortality. Mobilization of bone marrow-derived stem cells with granulocyte colony-stimulating factor (G-CSF) could promote hepatic regeneration.

METHODS

Consecutive patients with ACLF were randomly assigned to groups given 5 μg/kg G-CSF subcutaneously (12 doses; group A, n = 23) or placebo (group B, n = 24) plus standard medical therapy. We assessed survival until day 60; Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP), Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD), and Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) scores; and the development of other related complications.

RESULTS

After 1 week of treatment, group A had higher median leukocyte and neutrophil counts than group B (P < .001). Sixteen patients in group A (69.6%) and 7 in group B (29%) survived; the actuarial probability of survival at day 60 was 66% versus 26%, respectively (P = .001). Treatment with G-CSF also reduced CTP scores in group A by a median of 33.3% compared with an increase of 7.1% in group B (P = .001), along with MELD (median reduction of 15.3% compared with an increase of 11.7% in group B; P = .008) and SOFA scores (median reduction of 50% compared with an increase of 50% in group B; P = .001). The percentages of patients who developed hepatorenal syndrome, hepatic encephalopathy, or sepsis were lower in group A than in group B (19% vs 71% [P = .0002], 19% vs 66% [P = .001], and 14% vs 41% [P = .04], respectively). After 1 month of treatment, G-CSF increased the number of CD34(+) cells in the liver (by 45% compared with 27.5% in group B; P = .01).

CONCLUSIONS

G-CSF therapy more than doubles the percentage of patients with ACLF who survive for 2 months; it also significantly reduces CTP, MELD, and SOFA scores and prevents the development of sepsis, hepatorenal syndrome, and hepatic encephalopathy.

Clinical profile and predictors of mortality in patients of acute-on-chronic liver failure

BACKGROUND

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is characterised by acute hepatic insult manifesting as jaundice and coagulopathy, complicated within 4 weeks by ascites and/or encephalopathy in patients with previously diagnosed or undiagnosed chronic liver disease. We studied the clinical, biochemical and etiological profiles of ACLF patients investigating variables which could predict mortality.

METHODS

Consecutive ACLF patients were enrolled and given standard intensive care management. They were monitored for predictors of 90-day mortality.

RESULTS

91 patients were included; besides jaundice (median bilirubin 23.1mg/dL) and coagulopathy, acute onset ascites with or without encephalopathy was the presenting symptom in 92%. In all patients a first diagnosis of chronic liver disease was made, mainly due to hepatitis B (37%) or alcohol (34%). Reactivation of chronic hepatitis B and alcoholic hepatitis were the common acute insults. The 90-day mortality was 63%. On multivariate analysis, hepatic encephalopathy, low serum sodium, and high INR were found to be independent baseline predictors of mortality. Amongst all severity scores studied, MELD, SOFA and APACHE-II scores had AUROCs of >0.8 which was significantly higher than that of Child-Turcotte-Pugh.

CONCLUSIONS

ACLF has very high mortality. Hepatic encephalopathy, low serum sodium and high INR predict poor outcome. Mortality can also be predicted by baseline MELD, SOFA or APACHE-II scores.

Intensive care unit admission of decompensated cirrhotic patients: prognostic scoring systems

Cirrhotic patients who need critical care support show high morbidity and mortality rates compared with other critically ill patients. Their prognosis is, in fact, influenced by both the severity of the underlying hepatic disease and the worsening of extrahepatic organ function. Clinicians and investigators have been persistently looking for objective scoring systems capable of providing accurate information on disease severity and short-term prognosis. Risk stratification helps differentiate patients who would not benefit from admission to the intensive care unit (ICU) from those who could achieve better outcomes once aggressively treated. The most common scores, ie, multiple organ dysfunction score, sequential organ failure assessment, and acute physiology and chronic health evaluation, developed in general ICUs to evaluate illness severity, have also been validated to predict the prognosis of cirrhotic patients admitted to the ICU. However, their absolute predictive value has been questioned. A weakness of common prediction models consists in not recognizing the continuum of physiological changes in critically ill decompensated cirrhotic patients. In addition, the predictive power to stratify individual risk is relatively low due to the great variability of liver dysfunction stages, the severity of related manifestations, and the number of nonfunctioning organs on admission. Probability models are not capable of predicting whether a patient will live or die with 100% accuracy, nor can they deny or confirm the indications for mechanical ventilation, vasopressor support or renal replacement therapy, or help to decide when to withhold or withdraw support. Because there are no absolute criteria to predict which cirrhotic decompensated patients will improve with normalization of organ function or deteriorate progressively, a scoring system should be regarded as an adjunct rather than a substitute for clinical judgment in the decision process concerning whether a patient should be admitted to the ICU.

Community-acquired pneumonia in patients with liver cirrhosis: clinical features, outcomes, and usefulness of severity scores

We performed an observational analysis of a prospective cohort of nonimmunocompromised hospitalized adults with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) to determine the epidemiology, clinical features, and outcomes of patients with liver cirrhosis. We also analyzed the prognostic value of several severity scores. Of 3420 CAP episodes, 90 occurred in patients with liver cirrhosis. The median value of the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) was 14 (range, 6-36). On the Child-Pugh (CP) score, 56% of patients were defined as grade B and 22% as grade C. Patients with liver cirrhosis were younger (61.8 vs. 66.8 yr; p = 0.001) than patients without cirrhosis, more frequently presented impaired consciousness at admission (33% vs. 14%; p < 0.001) and septic shock (13% vs. 6%; p = 0.011), and were more commonly classified in high-risk Pneumonia Severity Index (PSI) classes (classes IV-V) (74% vs. 58%; p = 0.002). Streptococcus pneumoniae (47% vs. 33%; p = 0.009) and Pseudomonas aeruginosa (4.4% vs. 0.9%; p = 0.001) were more frequently documented in patients with cirrhosis. Bacteremia was also more common in these patients (22% vs. 13%; p = 0.023). Areas under the curve (AUCs) from disease-specific scores (MELD, CP, PSI, and CURB-65 [confusion, urea, respiratory rate, blood pressure, and age ≥65 yr]) were comparable in predicting severe disease (30-d mortality and intensive care unit [ICU] admission). A new score based on MELD, multilobar pneumonia, and septic shock at admission (MELD-CAP) had an AUC of 0.945 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.872-0.983) for predicting severe disease and was significantly different from other scores. Early (5.6% vs. 2.1%; p = 0.048) and overall (14.4% vs. 7.4%; p < 0.024) mortality rates were higher in cirrhotic patients than in patients without cirrhosis. Factors associated with mortality were impaired consciousness, multilobar pneumonia, ascites, acute renal failure, bacteremia, ICU admission, and MELD score. Among the severity scores, MELD-CAP was the only score associated with severe disease (odds ratio [OR], 1.33; 95% CI, 1.09-1.52) and mortality (OR, 1.21; 95% CI, 1.03-1.42). In conclusion, CAP in patients with liver cirrhosis presents a distinctive clinical picture and is associated with higher mortality than is found in patients without cirrhosis. The severity of hepatic dysfunction plays an important role in the development of adverse events. Cirrhosis-specific scores may be useful for predicting and stratifying cirrhotic patients with CAP who have a high risk of severe disease.

Short-term and long-term vital outcomes of cirrhotic patients admitted to an intensive care unit

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate short-term and long-term vital outcomes of cirrhotic patients admitted to a general ICU, to evaluate the prognostic value of severity scores and to identify risk factors associated with death.

METHODS

Observational retrospective single-center epidemiological study. All cirrhotic patients admitted to the ICU were eligible for the study. Clinical data, general ICU severity scores, and liver-specific severity scores were recorded. The mortality rate was analyzed during the stay in ICU, at day 28 and month 6 after admission. Risk factors for death were identified by univariate and multivariate analyses.

RESULTS

During the study period, 86 cirrhotic patients were admitted to the ICU. The in-ICU, day-28 and month-6 mortality rates were 37, 48, and 60%, respectively. In the multivariate analysis, mechanical ventilation, the prothrombin time, and the plasma albumin level on admission were associated with the in-ICU mortality, whereas only the plasma albumin level was associated with the 6-month mortality [odds ratio 0.80; 95% confidence interval (0.70-0.92)]. The Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score was more predictive than liver-specific scores for mortality in the ICU, but not at day 28 or month 6.

CONCLUSION

ICU admission should not be ruled out for patients with complicated cirrhosis. Although common in cirrhotic patients, low plasma albumin level was the only factor independently associated with short-term and long-term mortalities.

Outcomes of critically ill patients with cirrhosis admitted to intensive care: an important perspective from the non-transplant setting

BACKGROUND

Hospital admissions for cirrhosis have been increasing in the United Kingdom, leading to increased pressure on intensive care (ICU) services. Outcome data for patients admitted to ICU are currently limited to transplant centre reports, with mortality rates exceeding 70%. These tertiary reports could fuel a negative bias when patients with cirrhosis are reviewed for ICU admission in secondary care.

AIMS

To determine whether disease severity and mortality rates in non-transplant general ICU are less severe than those reported by tertiary datasets.

METHODS

A prospective dual-centre non-transplant ICU study. Admissions were screened for cirrhosis and physiological and biochemical data were collected. Disease-specific and critical illness scoring systems were evaluated.

RESULTS

Cirrhosis was present in 137/4198 (3.3%) of ICU admissions. ICU and hospital mortality were 38% and 47%, respectively; median age 50 [43-59] years, 68% men, 72% alcoholic cirrhosis, median Child Pugh Score (CPS) 10 [8-11], Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) 18 [12-24], Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II score (APACHE II) 16 [13-22].

CONCLUSIONS

Mortality rates and disease staging were notably lower than in the published literature, suggesting that patients have a more favourable outlook than previously considered. Transplant centre data should therefore be interpreted with caution when evaluating the merits of intensive care admission for patients in general secondary care ICUs.

Innate immune dysfunction in acute and chronic liver disease

Liver cirrhosis is a common disease causing great public-health concern because of the frequent complications requiring hospital care. Acute liver failure is also prone to several complications but is rare. One of the main complications for both acute and chronic liver diseases is infection, which regularly causes decompensation of cirrhosis, possibly leading to organ failure and death. This review focuses on innate immune function in cirrhosis, acute-on-chronic liver failure and acute liver failure. The known defects of Kupffer cells, neutrophils and monocytes are discussed, together with the pathophysiological importance of gut permeability, portal hypertension and intrinsic cellular defects, and the role of endotoxin, albumin, lipoproteins and toll-like receptors. Based on these different pathomechanisms, the available information on therapeutic strategies is presented. Antibiotic and probiotic treatment, nutritional support, artificial liver support, and experimental strategies such as inhibition of toll-like receptors and use of albumin and colony-stimulating factors are highlighted.

Acute-on-chronic liver failure: consensus recommendations of the Asian Pacific Association for the study of the liver (APASL)

The Asian Pacific Association for the Study of the Liver (APASL) set up a working party on acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) in 2004, with a mandate to develop consensus guidelines on various aspects of ACLF relevant to disease patterns and clinical practice in the Asia-Pacific region. Experts predominantly from the Asia-Pacific region constituted this working party and were requested to identify different issues of ACLF and develop the consensus guidelines. A 2-day meeting of the working party was held on January 22-23, 2008, at New Delhi, India, to discuss and finalize the consensus statements. Only those statements that were unanimously approved by the experts were accepted. These statements were circulated to all the experts and subsequently presented at the Annual Conference of the APASL at Seoul, Korea, in March 2008. The consensus statements along with relevant background information are presented in this review.

Models for prediction of mortality from cirrhosis with special reference to artificial neural network: a critical review

Prediction of mortality of patients with cirrhosis of liver, a common and potentially fatal disease, is important for timely listing of patients for liver transplantation. The Child-Pugh scoring system has been widely used for predicting the outcome of liver cirrhosis. The Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score has recently become popular for prediction of short-term mortality for organ allocation. A few studies that evaluated artificial neural network (ANN)-based model for prediction of outcome of cirrhosis of liver in terms of mortality have consistently shown it to be superior to Child-Pugh scoring and logistic regression-based models; it is worth noting that MELD score is also derived using the logistic regression model. Due to the inherent ability of neural network-based systems in identifying complex nonlinear interactions, ANN-based models are expected to perform better than most linear models, such as regression-based models. More studies are needed on ANN-based models for prediction of mortality of patients with cirrhosis of liver and its value in prioritization of organ allocation for treatment of patients with cirrhosis of liver.

[Mortality and prognostic factors of the cirrhotic patients with hepatic encephalopathy admitted to medical intensive care unit]

OBJECTIVE

To assess mortality and to identify variables that could predict it in cirrhotic patients hospitalized to the medical intensive care unit (MICU) for hepatic encephalopathy (HE).

STUDY DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

From January 1995 to December 2004, the cirrhotic patients admitted consecutively in MICU were screened and those with altered level of consciousness were included. The MICU mortality rate was assessed. Nearly 80 variables were analyzed and compared between survivors and non-survivors.

STATISTICAL ANALYSIS

t test, chi(2) or Fisher exact tests, Kaplan-Meier and log rank, Cox regression analysis.

RESULTS

A total of 180 patients (42 women-138 men, mean age: 59+/-10 years) were admitted (incidence: 2.6%). The SAPS II was 30.1+/-11, Acute Physiology Age and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II): 16.5+/-5.3, Child-Pugh score: 9.1+/-1.9 and GCS: 11+/-2.8. The causes of liver cirrhosis was identified in 41.2% of cases (viral: 35.6%, alcohol: 5.6%). Nearly 18% of patients had an antecedent of HE. The causes of HE were: infection (65.6%), upper gastrointestinal bleeding (32.2%), drugs (5%) and metabolic cause (5%). MICU mortality rate was 33.3% and seemed higher in gastrointestinal bleeding. Eighteen variables were significantly associated with poor prognosis in univariate analysis. Only three variables remained significant in multivariate analysis: systolic blood pressure<90 mmHg (RR=4; IC 95%=2-8.1), total WBC>12000 n/mm(3) (RR=3.1; IC 95%=1.8-5.3) and use of mechanical ventilation (RR=3.1; IC 95%=1.7-5.6).

CONCLUSION

The MICU mortality of cirrhotic patients with HE was high and significantly associated with haemodynamic instability, hyperleucocytosis and mechanical ventilation.

Readmission to Surgical Intensive Care Increases Severity-Adjusted Patient Mortality

BACKGROUND

This study aims to determine whether severity-adjusted outcomes including mortality are adversely impacted by readmission to a surgical intensive care unit (SICU) during the same hospital stay.

METHODS

The study included all patients admitted to the 20-bed tertiary care SICU in an urban teaching Level I trauma center and multiorgan transplant center from January 1, 1996 to December 31, 2001. This was a prospective observational study with secondary data analysis. Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE II) and Simplified Acute Physiology (SAPS) severity scores were calculated by a clinical information system. Outcomes were extracted from a computerized data warehouse.

RESULTS

In-hospital mortality and SICU length of stay (LOS) were measured for patients admitted and readmitted to the SICU. Of 10,840 patients admitted to the SICU, 296 (2.73%) required readmission to the SICU during the same hospital stay. The length of the original SICU stay was 4.9 +/- 6.7 days for readmitted patients compared with 3.2 +/- 6.0 days for nonreadmitted patients (p < 0.001). Readmitted patients had a higher mean APACHE II score on the day of original SICU discharge compared with nonreadmitted patients, 15.7 +/- 6.7 versus 13.8 +/- 7.1 (p < 0.001). The average APACHE II score increased from 15.7 +/- 6.7 to 18.1 +/- 8.6 between the day of SICU discharge and readmission (p < 0.001) and SAPS increased from 12.2 +/- 4.8 to 13.5 +/- 5.4 (p < 0.001). The distributions of severity-adjusted hospital mortality for both APACHE II and SAPS revealed that readmission to the SICU significantly increased mortality independent of the admission severity score.

CONCLUSIONS

Readmission to the SICU significantly increases the risk of death beyond that predicted by the APACHE II or SAPS scores alone. Higher APACHE II and SAPS scores upon discharge from the SICU and longer SICU LOS are associated with an increased incidence of readmission to the SICU on the same hospital stay. These results may be used to optimize the timing of SICU discharge and reduce the chance of readmission to intensive care.

Survival of liver transplant candidates with acute renal failure receiving renal replacement therapy

BACKGROUND

Acute renal failure (ARF) in the setting of end-stage liver disease has a dismal prognosis without liver transplantation. Renal replacement therapy (RRT) is a common bridge to liver transplant despite a paucity of supportive data. We investigated our single-center patient population to determine efficacy of RRT in liver transplant candidates with ARF.

METHODS

We identified 102 liver transplant candidates receiving RRT for ARF between April 30, 1999 and January 31, 2004. Patients that had initiated RRT intra- or postoperatively or received outpatient hemodialysis or peritoneal dialysis prior to admission were excluded. Survival to liver transplant, short-term mortality following liver transplant, and selected clinical characteristics were examined.

RESULTS

Of patients who received RRT, 35% survived to liver transplant or discharge. Mortality was 94% in patients not receiving a liver and was associated with a higher Acute Physiological and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II, lower mean arterial pressure, and the use of continuous renal replacement therapy (CRRT). Patients receiving CRRT had greater severity of illness than those on hemodialysis. The 1-year mortality of patients initiating RRT prior to liver transplant was 30% versus 9.7% for all other liver recipients (P < 0.0045).

CONCLUSION

RRT is justifiable for liver transplant candidates with ARF. Though mortality was high, a substantial percentage (31%) of patients survived to liver transplant. Postoperative mortality is increased compared with all other liver transplant recipients, but is acceptable considering the near-universal mortality without transplantation.

Does intubation really equal death in cirrhotic patients? Factors influencing outcome in patients with liver cirrhosis requiring mechanical ventilation

OBJECTIVE

It is not known whether the poor outcome of ventilated cirrhotic patients is related to the severity of the underlying liver disease or to the severity of the acute illness for which ICU care is required. This study examines parameters both of chronic liver disease and of acute illness with regard to their influence on outcome in mechanically ventilated cirrhotic patients.

DESIGN AND SETTING

Retrospective observational case series in a 9-bed medical ICU in an academic tertiary care center.

PATIENTS AND MEASUREMENTS

Seventy-six consecutive cirrhotic patients who received mechanical ventilation were identified. Clinical and laboratory parameters were compared between ICU survivors and ICU deaths.

RESULTS

There were 45/76 (59%) patients who died during their ICU stay. By univariate analysis, the Child-Pugh score, its components (serum bilirubin, prothrombin time), ALT, creatinine concentration, a clinical suspicion of infection, and the APACHE II score, but not the acute physiology score (APS), differed significantly between ICU survivors and ICU non-survivors. The Child-Pugh score was highly correlated to ICU mortality both in logistic regression analysis and receiver-operating characteristics analysis. Conversely, markers of acute illness, in particular the APS component of the APACHE II score, did not predict ICU survival.

CONCLUSIONS

Markers of advanced chronic liver disease but not of the severity of acute illness are correlated to ICU outcome in ventilated cirrhotic patients. The outcome of advanced cases (Child-Pugh score of 12 and above) is poor.

Outcome prediction for critically ill cirrhotic patients: a comparison of APACHE II and Child-Pugh scoring systems

Cirrhotic patients admitted to the medical intensive care unit (ICU) are associated with high mortality rates. The prognosis of critically ill cirrhotic patients is determined by the extent of hepatic and extrahepatic organ dysfunction. This study was conducted to assess and compare the accuracy of the Child-Pugh classification and APACHE II scores, obtained on the first day of ICU admission, in predicting hospital mortality in critically ill cirrhotic patients. One hundred thirty-five patients diagnosed with liver cirrhosis were admitted to the medical ICU between January 2002 and March 2003. Information considered necessary to compute the Child-Pugh and APACHE II scores on the first day of ICU admission was prospectively collected. The overall hospital mortality rate was 66.6%. Liver disease was most commonly attributed to hepatitis B viral infection. The APACHE II scores demonstrate a good fit using the Hosmer and Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test. Furthermore, by using the areas under receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve, the APACHE II scores demonstrated a better discriminative power (AUROC 0.833 +/- 0.039) than Child-Pugh scores (AUROC 0.75 +/- 0.05) (P=.024). This investigation confirms the grave prognosis for the cirrhotic patients admitted to the ICU. While both Child-Pugh and the APACHE II scores can satisfactorily predict the outcomes for critically ill cirrhotic patients, APACHE II is more powerful in discriminating the survivors from the nonsurvivors.

Organ system failure scoring system can predict hospital mortality in critically ill cirrhotic patients

GOALS

This study was conducted to assess and compare the accuracy of Child-Pugh classification and organ system failure (OSF) scores, obtained on the first day of ICU admission, in predicting the hospital mortality in critically ill cirrhotic patients.

BACKGROUND

Cirrhotic patients admitted to the medical intensive care unit (ICU) are associated with high mortality rates. The prognosis of critically ill cirrhotic patients is determined by the extent of hepatic and extrahepatic organ dysfunction.

STUDY

A total of 111 patients diagnosed with liver cirrhosis were admitted to medical ICU from July 2001 to June 2002. Information considered necessary to compute the Child-Pugh and OSF scores on the first day of ICU admission was prospectively collected.

RESULTS

The overall hospital mortality rate was 64.9%. Liver disease was most commonly attributed to hepatitis B viral infection. The OSF scores demonstrate a good fit using the Hosmer and Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test. Meanwhile, by using the areas under receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve, the OSF scores demonstrated an excellent discriminative power (AUROC 0.901), whereas the performance of Child-Pugh scores is clearly poorer (AUROC 0.748).

CONCLUSION

This investigation confirms that the prognosis for cirrhotic patients admitted to ICU is grave. The OSF score is a simple, reproducible, and easily applied tool with excellent prognostic abilities that can provide objective information for patients' families and physicians and supplement the clinical judgment of prognosis.

Predictive role of serum procollagen III peptide and Knodell's index in survival prognosis of patients with hepatitis B virus liver cirrhosis

OBJECTIVE

The objective of the study was to improve the accuracy of survival prognosis in patients with liver cirrhosis using procollagen III peptide (PIIIP), as a marker of inflammation and fibrogenesis, and Knodell's histologic activity index (KI) in addition to previously used prognostic factors.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Five-year survival was followed in a group of 75 patients with hepatitis B virus (HBV) liver cirrhosis (patients testing anti-HBe positive and HBV-DNA negative). There were 31 patients with compensated cirrhosis and 44 with decompensated cirrhosis. The diagnostic procedure included clinical, laboratory, ultrasound and pathohistologic examination. We combined PIIIP and KI with other significant variables to achieve the highest possible sensitivity, specificity and accuracy for survival prognosis in HBV liver cirrhosis. The models were compared using ROC analysis.

RESULTS

At the end of the five-year period of survival follow-up, there were 39 survivors and 36 patients had died (only three died from an extrahepatic cause). In the quantitative model, the discriminant canonical function (DCF) identified PIIIP, bilirubin, prothrombin time, ascites and KI as statistically significant parameters in the prognosis of five-year survival. Calculation of the score based on DCF yielded an accuracy of 89.3%. In the semiquantitative model, the analysis of variance identified PIIIP, bilirubin, albumin, pro-thrombin time, alkaline phosphatase, ascites and KI as significant variables. When PIIIP was added to the clinicohistologic diagnosis, Child-Pugh score and KI, the level of accuracy improved by 12% (from 78% to 90%), 11% (from 79% to 90%) and 10.6% (from 80% to 90.6%), respectively. When calculated with the three biochemical parameters (alkaline phosphatase, PIIIP and bilirubin) and KI identified by DCF, the accuracy was 90.6%.

CONCLUSION

Combining PIIIP and KI with other prognostic parameters is useful in achieving a better precision of survival prognosis in patients with HBV liver cirrhosis.

A comparison of Child-Pugh, APACHE II and APACHE III scoring systems in predicting hospital mortality of patients with liver cirrhosis

BACKGROUND

The aim of this study was to assess the prognostic accuracy of Child-Pugh and APACHE II and III scoring systems in predicting short-term, hospital mortality of patients with liver cirrhosis.

METHODS

200 admissions of 147 cirrhotic patients (44% viral-associated liver cirrhosis, 33% alcoholic, 18.5% cryptogenic, 4.5% both viral and alcoholic) were studied prospectively. Clinical and laboratory data conforming to the Child-Pugh, APACHE II and III scores were recorded on day 1 for all patients. Discrimination was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and area under a ROC curve (AUC). Calibration was estimated using the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test.

RESULTS

Overall mortality was 11.5%. The mean Child-Pugh, APACHE II and III scores for survivors were found to be significantly lower than those of nonsurvivors. Discrimination was excellent for Child-Pugh (ROC AUC: 0.859) and APACHE III (ROC AUC: 0.816) scores, and acceptable for APACHE II score (ROC AUC: 0.759). Although the Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic revealed adequate goodness-of-fit for Child-Pugh score (P = 0.192), this was not the case for APACHE II and III scores (P = 0.004 and 0.003 respectively)

CONCLUSION

Our results indicate that, of the three models, Child-Pugh score had the least statistically significant discrepancy between predicted and observed mortality across the strata of increasing predicting mortality. This supports the hypothesis that APACHE scores do not work accurately outside ICU settings.