Desired and excess fertility in Europe and the United States: indirect estimates from World Fertility Survey data

Does Europe Need Immigrants? Population and Work Force Projections

It has been argued that Europe needs more immigrants to restore its age structure and its work force. Even if low European fertility continues, decline in the work force is relatively modest in the medium term and is considerably lower than the potential reserve labor force in Europe. It seems eccentric to propose the resumption of immigration for low-grade labor when there are 15 million unemployed in Europe, most under age 25 and many themselves immigrants, especially since future demand for labor emphasizes high skills. A resumption of general immigration to ensure population stabilization would require inflows much higher even than those previously considered unacceptable. Instead, attention should be given to making it easier for women to combine their desires for children with those for work.

Bayesian Approach to Zero-Inflated Bivariate Ordered Probit Regression Model, with an Application to Tobacco Use

This paper presents a Bayesian analysis of bivariate ordered probit regression model with excess of zeros. Specifically, in the context of joint modeling of two ordered outcomes, we develop zero-inflated bivariate ordered probit model and carry out estimation using Markov Chain Monte Carlo techniques. Using household tobacco survey data with substantial proportion of zeros, we analyze the socioeconomic determinants of individual problem of smoking and chewing tobacco. In our illustration, we find strong evidence that accounting for excess zeros provides good fit to the data. The example shows that the use of a model that ignores zero-inflation masks differential effects of covariates on nonusers and users.

The impact of children on the labour supply off married women: comparative estimates from European and U.S. data

This paper presents estimates of the impact of the age pattern and level of fertility on the probability of labor force participation by married and cohabiting women in 12 eastern and western European countries and the US. Logit models for labor force participation probabilities are estimated conditional on age, age at marriage or union, educational attainment, current parity, and number of years in parity, using data on married and cohabiting women from the UN Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE) Comparative Study of World Fertility Surveys. The estimated models are used to simulate the age profiles of labor force participation conditional on the level and timing of fertility. The simulation results are presented in a series of charts grouped according to similarities in the effects of fertility on the age profiles of labor force participation. Four distinct patterns are identified that depend on the empirical significance of distinct number-of-children and age-of-youngest-child effects. The role of family policies and the extent to which the labor supply reductions associated with childbearing can be interpreted as opportunity costs are considered.

Desired and excess fertility in Europe and the United States: indirect estimates from World Fertility Survey data

This paper presents indirect estimates of desired family size and unwanted births for married and cohabiting women in 12 European countries and the US. An econometric model for censored discrete data is used to estimate the distribution of desired family size from individual observations on children ever-born and total expected births. The data are from the UNECE Comparative Fertility Study of WFS surveys for Europe and the US and originated in national surveys between April 1975-December 1979. Estimates of the bivariate distribution of cumulative and desired fertility are used to compute the proportion of women with excess fertility and the average number of unwanted births for each country. The indirect estimates are compared with those from an analysis of survey responses to questions about desired and unwanted births. Multivariate modes that control for the effects of marriage duration, age at marriage, education, employment status, work experience, and total family income are also reported.