Reproductive health, population growth, economic development and environmental change

World population will increase by 1000 million, or by 20%, within 10 years. Ninety-five per cent of this increase will occur in the South, in areas that are already economically, environmentally and politically fragile. Morbidity and mortality associated with reproduction will be greater in the current decade than in any period in human history. Annually, 40-60 million pregnancies will be terminated and 5-10 million children will die within one year of birth. AIDS-related infections, e.g. tuberculosis, will undermine health care in Africa (and elsewhere) and in places AIDS-related deaths will decimate the work-force. The growth in population and associated morbidity will inhibit global economic development and spawn new problems. The key issues are migration, the spread of disease, the supply of water and the degradation of land, and fiscal policies with respect to family planning, pharmaceuticals and Third-World debt. Full education, particularly of women, and more effective family planning in the South have the power to unlock the problem. Failure will see the developed countries, with their 800 million population, swamped by the health, economic and environmental problems of the South, with its projected population of 5400 million people for the year 2000.

Backcalculation of flexible linear models of the human immunodeficiency virus infection curve

The authors present a regression approach to the backcalculation of flexible linear models of the HIV infection curve. They note that "because expected AIDS incidence can be expressed as a linear function of unknown parameters, regression methods may be used to obtain parameter and covariance estimates for a variety of interesting quantities, such as the expected number of people infected in previous time intervals and the projected AIDS incidence in future time intervals. We exploit these ideas to show that estimates based on maximum likelihood are, for practical purposes, equivalent to approximate estimates based on quasi-likelihood and on Poisson regression. These algorithms are readily implemented on a personal computer." These concepts are illustrated by projecting AIDS incidence in the United States up to 1993.

[Evolution of the population of Quebec and Canada over the past century and a half in the absence of migration]

"Population projections in the absence of migration--based on observed or estimated mortality and fertility rates since 1851--help provide a long-term assessment of migration in Quebec and Canada, through the comparison of census data with the results of such projections. Without migration since 1851, Quebec would have had 12 million inhabitants in 1991 instead of the observed 7 million. For Canada, the projection [excluding] migration since 1871 results in a population of 26 million persons (without Newfoundland), this being one million less than the latest census total." (SUMMARY IN ENG AND SPA)

[Population aging and institutionalization of elderly persons: some possible projections for Canada]

The consequences of population aging on the demand for institutional lodging will undoubtedly be considerable. The authors have estimated this future demand in relationship with the evolution of certain socio-demographic characteristics of tomorrow's elderly. Based on a multivariate analysis (logit model), their projections will demonstrate the need for an approach which takes into account the replacement of generations among the ranks of aged persons. In fact, in future the latter will be appreciably different from today's generations. Their sociodemographic characteristics will have an impact on the risk of living in an institution and, thus, on the proportion and the number of institutionalized elderly people. Furthermore, they will probably be in a position to be able to contribute towards a greater portion of the costs of institutional living. Certainly, the burden of institutionalization will be further weighed down by the arrival of the Baby Boomers into the 65 years and over age bracket. This article nevertheless distinguishes some significant nuances within the scope of this phenomenon.

Geographic distribution of undocumented immigrants: estimates of undocumented aliens counted in the 1980 census by state

"This article presents estimates of the number of undocumented aliens counted in the 1980 [U.S.] census for each state and the District of Columbia. The estimates, which indicate that 2.06 million undocumented aliens were counted in the 1980 census, are not based on individual records, but are aggregate estimates derived by a residual technique. The census count of aliens (modified somewhat to account for deficiencies in the data) is compared with estimates of the legally resident alien population based on data collected by the Immigration and Naturalization Service in January 1980." Estimates are provided "for each of the states for selected countries of birth and for age, sex, and period of entry categories.... The origins of the undocumented alien population [are described], as well as some of their demographic characteristics. Some of the implications of the numbers and distribution of undocumented aliens are also discussed." This paper was originally presented at the 1984 Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America (see Population Index, Vol. 50, No. 3, Fall 1984, p. 435).

Child survivorship estimation: methods and data analysis

"The past 20 years have seen extensive elaboration, refinement, and application of the original Brass method for estimating infant and child mortality from child survivorship data. This experience has confirmed the overall usefulness of the methods beyond question, but it has also shown that...estimates must be analyzed in relation to other relevant information before useful conclusions about the level and trend of mortality can be drawn.... This article aims to illustrate the importance of data analysis through a series of examples, including data for the Eastern Malaysian state of Sarawak, Mexico, Thailand, and Indonesia. Specific maneuvers include plotting completed parity distributions and 'time-plotting' mean numbers of children ever born from successive censuses. A substantive conclusion of general interest is that data for older women are not so widely defective as generally supposed."

An update on Australia's future population growth and its population problems

"Population projections need to be continually updated as new information becomes available.... With an assumption of a total fertility rate of 1.865 children per woman and annual net migration of 50,000, ABS [Australian Bureau of Statistics] projections published in 1996 and additional projections in 1997 suggest a population of 24.5 million in 2051 and an ultimate population of more than 25 million. The analysis in this article...puts Australia's various population problems into a proper perspective and tries to direct attention away from the unnecessary preoccupation with population decline."

Population projections, 1991-2021

"This information presents initial assumptions and analyzes basic results of the latest population projections for Yugoslavia, and its constituent republics and provinces, by age and sex, for the period 1991-2021, which were prepared during 1995 through co-operation of the Federal Statistical Office and the Demographic Research Centre of the Institute of Social Sciences, and were published in 1996." The projections concern only the two republics that make up present-day Yugoslavia, that is Montenegro and Serbia (with its two regions of Vojvodina, and Kosovo and Metohija).

Demographic change in Northern Ireland

"This paper has two objectives: firstly, to provide an assessment of the current state of Northern Ireland demography, focusing on recent trends and the prospects for the future; secondly, to highlight the more significant ramifications of these trends for the wider society." Aspects considered include past and future population trends, consequences of stagnant or slow population growth, and implications of population trends.

Generalized Lotka distribution incorporating migration

"This paper proposes to introduce the migration component into the stable population model and examine the stability of the age distribution. The analysis [is restricted] to one sex as [has been] done by others." The model is applied to Canadian data.

[Population projection for the Czech Republic to the year 2030]

"This article is an attempt to make a new population projection of the Czech Republic to the year 2030 based on assumptions with regard to mortality and fertility.... Four possible scenarios of population development are explored...and the basic results presented.... All of them...suggest rapid aging of Czech society after 2010...." (SUMMARY IN ENG AND RUS)

Fertility pattern of women in China: a parity progression analysis

"Using the 1% sample data from China's fourth census and [the] period parity progression method...,this paper analyzes the reproductive age and parity patterns of Chinese women. In addition to the commonly used period parity progression and the total fertility rate obtained through the usage of this method, some other frequently ignored means of deducing and calculating statistical indexes are introduced here."

Summary evaluations of risk factors related to infant mortality

The authors discuss risk factors related to infant mortality. "The size and magnitude of these risk factors vary across different countries and regions. In order to more accurately describe the relationship between risk factors and infant mortality, risk factors should be quantified, making it possible to estimate the degree of risk associated with infant deaths. This article introduces some risk factors and their evaluation method."

Urbanization and internal migration

This is a survey of the U.N. Population Division's contributions to the study of urbanization and internal migration, related research, and publications. In order to review these contributions, the relevant U.N. publications are classified under five broad topics: "estimates and projections of urban, rural and city populations, including problems of data comparability and methods to measure internal migration; monitoring of trends in urbanization; estimates and analyses of migration as a component of urban and metropolitan growth; studies of demographic and socio-economic aspects of urbanization, and studies of demographic and socio-economic aspects of internal migration."

Estimating mortality in Benin from a multi-round survey (1981-83)

"We shall in the present study proceed as follows: first, present the methodology used for the Benin Multi-Round Survey (BMRS); second, analyse the quality of the data, by evaluating the impact of mobility on the results, by a critical assessment of the levels obtained for several mortality indicators and by using indirect methods to estimate the coverage of deaths occurring between rounds; third, construct the first life tables for Benin based on raw data. We shall then consider in what these life tables are specific, and where they diverge from the standard life tables."

Population estimates for small areas in Canada

The author outlines population estimation techniques used by Statistics Canada. "The objectives of this paper are to (i) describe the methodology and data sources for estimating the population for census divisions (CDs) and census metropolitan areas (CMAs), and (ii) present the results of the evaluations of 1986 population estimates."

Deprivation in London wards: mortality and unemployment trends in the 1980's

"This paper describes the use of current estimates of population and economic activity for London's wards in developing small area social indicators. The particular focus is on changes in the spatial pattern of mortality and unemployment differences in the 1980s in relation to the wider incidence of deprivation in wards. A conditional model of change is developed for mortality and unemployment indices to assess whether spatial differences are widening over time and how far changes in these indices are linked to social class and deprivation. The evidence is of widening unemployment differences, and a slight widening in premature mortality."

Forecast of labour force in Poland to the year 2020: methodology and results

"In 1995 the Labour Statistics Division of the Central Statistical Office (CSO) started methodological work on the preparation of a forecast of the labour force in Poland to the year 2020.... Variant ¿intermediate' assumes a slow reconstruction of the economic activity of population from the level of the period 1978-88 (census 1978 and census 1988). The main part of this ¿reconstruction' will take place in the years 1995-2010. The greatest anticipated changes concern youths (18-24 years), persons of immobility age (males 45-64 years and females 45-59 years) and the first groups of the retirement age. Variant ¿maximum' assumes that the anticipated ¿reconstruction' labour force participation rate will be faster (compared with variant ¿intermediate')."