The changing character of contemporary migration

"Although the flow of human beings between countries and continents has marked the behaviours of populations for centuries, present international migration is clearly characterized by a number of new factors which make it distinct from international movements of people in the past. This paper aims to identify such new factors relating to the underlying reasons for the international mobility of people, including the motivations of the individuals concerned, and attempts to examine the consequences as they are being faced by the individuals involved, the countries concerned and--in more general terms--the international community." (summary in FRE, SPA)

Demographic change in Northern Ireland

"This paper has two objectives: firstly, to provide an assessment of the current state of Northern Ireland demography, focusing on recent trends and the prospects for the future; secondly, to highlight the more significant ramifications of these trends for the wider society." Aspects considered include past and future population trends, consequences of stagnant or slow population growth, and implications of population trends.

[The migration of Jews from the former Soviet Union: a new challenge for Israel?]

"This article is a contribution to the knowledge on the migratory results stemming from the collapse of the communist bloc. Since 1989, more than half a million... Jews have left the former Soviet Union for Israel. Thus, the Jewish state [has become] one of the major countries [to feel] the effects of this important geopolitical event. So, in this contribution, we will try to expose, with the first results of research, the patterns of this migration and to answer the inherent questions in this kind of [problem]: who are these migrants and what are their motives? and what are the effects of this migration for this area...." (SUMMARY IN ENG AND SPA)

[Growth and demography in the industrialized countries]

The economic consequences of demographic aging in developed countries are assessed. "They include falls in savings ratios, rising inequalities, as well as consequences for productivity and the financing of pension schemes. The impact on long term growth is subsequently analysed. This is done by forecasting potential output, given reductions in the working populations of these countries.... Assuming that technology continues to advance as it has done since 1973, these demographic changes will lead to a clear fall in growth for both the United States and Japan. In Europe adapting to this new demographic context should be easier, as growth in recent decades has been based more on productivity gains." (SUMMARY IN ENG)

International migration and development

"This article assesses the effects of migration on development, emphasizing the shift from a national to an international perspective. The issue of migration, trade and international cooperation is considered next. The last section of the article is devoted to policy with reference to development cooperation as an alternative to migration."

[Demographic aging in the member countries of the European Union]

"Despite all remaining political, economical and cultural differences in the member countries of the European Union...population ageing is a common phenomena of all these countries.... Many spheres of socio-economic life in the countries of the European Union are already affected by this shifting process.... Most of the social security and welfare systems of the industrialized countries in the European Union are mainly based on intergenerational solidarity, a solidarity which is highly burdened by the demographic development. In this respect policy makers have to take into consideration the expected changes in the age structure of the economically active population, changing patterns of labour force participation as well as changes in family and household structures in their task to modify existing systems or to build new systems of social security and welfare under the growing burden of an ageing society." (SUMMARY IN ENG)

The aging of the population and the financing of local governments

"This paper explores the residential property tax burdens faced by elderly homeowners in the United States. The results demonstrate that the use of annual data in income and property tax liabilities to calculate tax burdens overstates the regressivity of the property tax. The magnitude of the bias created by using annual income is determined by comparing tax burdens calculated from annual data with burdens calculated from tax liabilities and income data covering a 12-year period. The results indicate that while the residential property tax on the non-elderly is approximately proportional, the pattern of burdens on the elderly remains regressive."

Demographic influences on the number of children at school entry ages, with examples from three states

"This paper analyzes the effects of changes in fertility, mortality, and net migration patterns on the growth of school entry-age populations in three states (Florida, South Carolina, and West Virginia) over the period 1950-1990. Fertility changes have had the largest influence on growth of these young populations, as common sense suggests. Changing migration patterns have been quite important, however, in explaining intertemporal and interspatial variations in growth rates."

The place of children in the history of couples

"Does the multiplication of families outside wedlock increase poverty and aggravate the 'social problems' that emerge during adolescence, or does it normalize the position of children brought up in nontraditional families?...[The author] observes the place of children in the history of couples [in France].... The increase in the risk of breakdown of unions corresponds to a logic that is independent of fertility behaviour. Children are increasingly conceived by parents who already live [together], and the time of their birth is more and more often planned, but the presence of children thereafter has only a weak influence on the solidity of the union, except when the children are very young; children are no stronger a guarantee of the solidity of a union now than [they were] in the past."

Selective effects of marriage migrations on the population redistribution in a hierarchical regional system of Japan

"Based on the data on 11,470 household heads and spouses in a national survey [in Japan], this paper studies the selective effects of marriage migrations on five types of prefectures: (1) metropolitan core, (2) suburban, (3) regional growth pole, (4) peripheral non-kaso, and (5) peripheral kaso prefectures. The selective effects are examined in terms of five personal factors: sex, nativity, education, period of marriage, and sibling status.... Primary and onward migrations were much more important than return migrations so that marriage migrations increased the non-native's share of the population of every type of [prefecture]. Marriage migrations resulted in further deterioration of the quality of human capital in peripheral prefectures. The transition from high to moderate economic growth in the early 1970s was accompanied by sharp reversals in the net transfers of marriage migrants in metropolitan cores and regional growth poles in opposite directions." (SUMMARY IN JPN)

Literacy transition and female nuptiality: implications for fertility in Pakistan

"This paper is an attempt to examine trends and differentials in education and age at marriage of males and females [in Pakistan] and then relate the two variables to one important aspect of demographic behaviour, namely fertility, and evaluate the implication of these relationships on reduction of fertility in Pakistan." The data are from the 1981 census and the 1979-1980 Population, Labour Force and Migration (PLM) Survey. "Given the limitations of the survey data which pertain to a sample of ever-married women between the ages of 15 and 49 years, the main conclusions of the study are that a rise in female age at marriage and education at secondary and higher levels are important in affecting fertility levels." Policy implications of the findings are discussed. Comments by Akhtar Hasan Khan are included (pp. 601-3).

Demographics, political power and economic growth

"Growth theory may be used to predict the response of saving, capital formation, and output growth to large demographic shifts. Such large shifts would also be expected to alter the demand for government services and the desired levels of taxation in the population. This paper extends the overlapping-generations model of economic growth to predict the evolution of government tax and spending policy through the course of a major demographic shift. Simulations suggest that this approach may yield valuable insights into the evolution of policy in the United States and other industrialized economies."

The ups and downs of marriage in Austria

The author examines reasons for fluctuations in marriage patterns in Austria since 1950. "We propose to investigate here not only the immediate impact of these perturbations in terms of first marriage rates, non-marital fertility and legitimations, but also the possible longer-term effects, by studying proportions never married in birth cohorts and fertility and divorce rates in marriage cohorts; finally, we shall consider total fertility trends for the most recent period." The impact of changes in Austria's fiscal policy with regard to newlyweds is considered.

Economic integration and labor flows: stage migration in farm labor markets in Mexico and the United States

"This article examines the probable effects of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) on migration from Mexico to the United States, disputing the view that expansion of jobs in Mexico could rapidly reduce undocumented migration. To the extent that NAFTA causes Mexican export agriculture to expand, migration to the United States will increase rather than decrease in the short run. Data collected in both California and the Mexican State of Baja California show that indigenous migrants from southern Mexico typically first undertake internal migration, which lowers the costs and risks of U.S. migration. Two features of employment in export agriculture were found to be specially significant in lowering the costs of U.S. migration: first, working in export agriculture exposes migrants to more diverse social networks and information about U.S. migration; second, agro-export employment in northern Mexico provides stable employment, albeit low-wage employment, for some members of the family close to the border (especially women and children) while allowing other members of the family to assume the risks of U.S. migration."

Australia, Hong Kong and 1997: the population connection

"What is the likely impact for migration to Australia of Hong Kong's incorporation into the People's Republic of China in 1997? Recent movements of people to and from Australia and Hong Kong suggest it may not be as great as some imagine." Aspects considered include the economic situation in Hong Kong and emigration; emigration tendencies; policy and return movements; migration and trade; and future prospects.

Changing occupational characteristics of U.S. immigrants

"The purpose of this research is to: (1) describe changes in the occupational characteristics of immigrants to the United States between 1972 and 1986; (2) analyze immigration statistics to see how policy admission categories, source country, and individual demographic factors help determine the entry patterns of professional and technical immigrant workers in 1972 and 1986; and (3) evaluate the immigrant stream recomposition argument that the changing levels of professional and technical occupational immigration [are] due to shifts in class and visa categories, region of origin, and demographic characteristics of workers admitted to the United States. In the conclusions we discuss how changes in immigration policies during this period may have contributed to the statistical patterns on occupational skills of immigrants."

[Demographic losses in the Ukraine due to famine in the years 1932-1933]

"The paper analyzes demographic aspects of famine in the Ukraine in [1932-1933] and the population losses caused by it. The study is..based on...published and new archival...information...." (SUMMARY IN ENG)

Demographic consequences of migration trends in Puerto Rico: 1950-1980

"This paper examines the evolution and changes in migration patterns [in Puerto Rico] through the 1970's based on data from the 1980 census. The focus is on demographic consequences of migration, particularly with regard to population growth, redistribution and changing age structure." A final section is concerned with the socioeconomic implications of migration. (summary in FRE, SPA)

[Demographic variables and social dependency: annual and intergenerational comparisons]

"Drawing on a profile of age-specific expenditures for selected [Canadian] Government programmes (services and transfers), we examine the effect of demographic changes and labour force participation on social expenditures in the upcoming decades. In terms of cross-sectional analysis, increased activity rates and particularly a postponed retirement age would exercise a major impact.... Using a different approach, it is possible to distinguish for each generation the social benefits received and corresponding contributions. Whereas the amount of benefits received by a specific cohort essentially depends on its size, contributions vary according to annual social expenditures. The demographic structures are such that the generations born before 1991 will profit from an excess in benefits...while for the following generations the situation will be reversed.... For all scenarios with negative population growth, future generations may expect to incur a deficit in terms of social expenses." (SUMMARY IN ENG AND SPA)

The new economic policy and permanent migration in Zhejiang Province, China

"This article examines the impact of economic reforms on the volume and characteristics of permanent migration in Zhejiang Province, China. The data suggest that the new economic policy induced a surge in permanent migration during the post-reform years. Such positive impact of the reform on permanent migration has started to fade away in 1985, as government relaxed its control over residence. Moreover, market mechanisms started playing a more important role in employment, exchange, and consumption. The data also suggest that the new economic policy has particularly favored the better educated, and thereby increased educational differentials between permanent migrants and nonmigrants. For all other characteristics examined, the results show consistently that post-reform migrants are less differentiated from nonmigrants than their pre-reform counterparts." An earlier version of this paper was presented at the 1994 Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America.

International migration: demographic and socioeconomic consequences in the United Kingdom and Europe

"This article evaluates the consequences of international migration since World War II, with particular reference to Great Britain. It emphasizes the substantial differences between the origins and responses to immigration in the United Kingdom and that of the rest of Western Europe." It is found that "people of non-European origin from Commonwealth countries have predominated in postwar immigration to the United Kingdom. That migration neutralized the previously dominant pattern of emigration and increased U.K. population by about 3 million people through immigration and higher fertility, with only slight effects upon the age distribution."

Canada's changing immigration policy: implications for Asian immigrants

"The present paper reviews Canadian immigration policy and assesses the current situation. An analysis of the 1994 immigration consultation process is presented which led to the new changes in immigration policy. Recent changes in the organizational structure of the Department of Citizenship and Immigration and its policy are evaluated. The implications of the new immigration policy are discussed, particularly as it relates to Asian immigration."

The impact of migration on gender roles: findings of field research in Turkey

"This article suggests an alternative approach to unravel the impact of migration experiences on gender roles of women [in Turkey].... Analysis of the pre-migration settings of women included in this study involves an attempt to delineate background characteristics, including types of marriage and family arrangements, levels of education and work experiences outside the household in order to assess relative impact on their post-migration characteristics.... Differences among the women in terms of their exposure to migration have also been taken into account as part of their migration experiences.... The main focus of the research is changing gender roles of women rather than their emancipation." (SUMMARY IN FRE AND SPA)

Demographics and debt service

"The discussion on the effects of the ongoing demographic transition on government behaviour has never mentioned its likely effect on an expenditure item (apparently non age specific) such as the debt service. This paper attempts to show that such effects could be non-negligible in countries (such as most European countries) where social security wealth arises from mandatory participation in pension schemes."

A model of the impact of immigration on health and social service expenditures for the elderly

"Immigration, primarily from the former Soviet Union, has swelled the population of Israel by 10% between 1990 and 1993 and total population growth by the end of the decade is expected to be over 30%. The research presented here represents part of a larger effort to project needs and costs for the entire population in order to assist health and social welfare services in planning and resource allocation. The paper presents an overview of the current demographic situation in Israel, a theoretical model for estimating the growth in needs, and estimates of needs and costs for services for the elderly population based upon this model."