Mathematical models of disease transmission: a precious tool for the study of sexually transmitted diseases

Incident Chlamydia trachomatis Infection in a High School Population

Prospective cohort studies of sexually transmitted infections (STIs) are logistically impractical owing to time and expenses. In schools, students are readily available for school-related follow-ups and monitoring. Capitalizing on the logistics that society already commits to ensure regular attendance of adolescents in school, a school-based STI screening in New Orleans made it possible to naturally observe the occurrence of chlamydia and to determine its incidence among 14-19-year-old adolescents. Among participants screened repeatedly, we calculated incidence rates, cumulative incidence, and incidence times. Male (n = 3820) and female (n = 3501) students were observed for 6251 and 5143 person-years, respectively, during which 415 boys and 610 girls acquired chlamydia. Incidence rates per 100 person-years were 6.6 cases for boys and 11.9 cases for girls. In multivariable analysis, the adjusted hazard ratio was 5.34 for boys and 3.68 for girls if the student tested positive for gonorrhea during follow-up, and 2.76 for boys and 1.59 for girls if at first participation the student tested positive for chlamydia, and it increased with age among boys but not among girls. In joinpoint trend analysis, the annual percentage change in the incidence rate was 6.6% for boys (95% CI: -1.2%, 15.1%) and 0.1% for girls (95% CI: -5.3%, 5.7%). Annual cumulative incidence was 5.5% among boys and 8.6% among girls. Median incidence time was 9.7 months for boys and 6.9 months for girls. Our findings can be used to refine assumptions in mathematical modeling and in cost analysis studies of C. trachomatis infection, and provide strong evidence in support of annual chlamydia screening for adolescent boys.

Risk heterogeneity in compartmental HIV transmission models of ART as prevention in Sub-Saharan Africa: A scoping review

BACKGROUND

Transmission models provide complementary evidence to clinical trials about the potential population-level incidence reduction attributable to ART (ART prevention impact). Different modelling assumptions about risk heterogeneity may influence projected ART prevention impacts. We sought to review representations of risk heterogeneity in compartmental HIV transmission models applied to project ART prevention impacts in Sub-Saharan Africa.

METHODS

We systematically reviewed studies published before January 2020 that used non-linear compartmental models of sexual HIV transmission to simulate ART prevention impacts in Sub-Saharan Africa. We summarized data on model structure/assumptions (factors) related to risk and intervention heterogeneity, and explored multivariate ecological associations of ART prevention impacts with modelled factors.

RESULTS

Of 1384 search hits, 94 studies were included. 64 studies considered sexual activity stratification and 39 modelled at least one key population. 21 studies modelled faster/slower ART cascade transitions (HIV diagnosis, ART initiation, or cessation) by risk group, including 8 with faster and 4 with slower cascade transitions among key populations versus the wider population. In ecological analysis of 125 scenarios from 40 studies (subset without combination intervention), scenarios with risk heterogeneity that included turnover of higher risk groups were associated with smaller ART prevention benefits. Modelled differences in ART cascade across risk groups also influenced the projected ART benefits, including: ART prioritized to key populations was associated with larger ART prevention benefits. Of note, zero of these 125 scenarios considered lower ART coverage among key populations.

CONCLUSION

Among compartmental transmission models applied to project ART prevention impacts in Sub-Saharan Africa, representations of risk heterogeneity and projected impacts varied considerably. Inclusion/exclusion of risk heterogeneity with turnover, and intervention heterogeneity across risk groups could influence the projected impacts of ART scale-up. These findings highlight a need to capture risk heterogeneity with turnover and cascade heterogeneity when projecting ART prevention impacts.

Providing laypeople with results from dynamic infectious disease modelling studies affects their allocation preference for scarce medical resources-a factorial experiment

BACKGROUND

Allocation of scarce medical resources can be based on different principles. It has not yet been investigated which allocation schemes are preferred by medical laypeople in a particular situation of medical scarcity like an emerging infectious disease and how the choices are affected by providing information about expected population-level effects of the allocation scheme based on modelling studies. We investigated the potential benefit of strategic communication of infectious disease modelling results.

METHODS

In a two-way factorial experiment (n = 878 participants), we investigated if prognosis of the disease or information about expected effects on mortality at population-level (based on dynamic infectious disease modelling studies) influenced the choice of preferred allocation schemes for prevention and treatment of an unspecified sexually transmitted infection. A qualitative analysis of the reasons for choosing specific allocation schemes supplements our results.

RESULTS

Presence of the factor "information about the population-level effects of the allocation scheme" substantially increased the probability of choosing a resource allocation system that minimized overall harm among the population, while prognosis did not affect allocation choices. The main reasons for choosing an allocation scheme differed among schemes, but did not differ among those who received additional model-based information on expected population-level effects and those who did not.

CONCLUSIONS

Providing information on the expected population-level effects from dynamic infectious disease modelling studies resulted in a substantially different choice of allocation schemes. This finding supports the importance of incorporating model-based information in decision-making processes and communication strategies.

Contribution of high risk groups' unmet needs may be underestimated in epidemic models without risk turnover: A mechanistic modelling analysis

Background

Epidemic models of sexually transmitted infections (STIs) are often used to characterize the contribution of risk groups to overall transmission by projecting the transmission population attributable fraction (tPAF) of unmet prevention and treatment needs within risk groups. However, evidence suggests that STI risk is dynamic over an individual’s sexual life course, which manifests as turnover between risk groups. We sought to examine the mechanisms by which turnover influences modelled projections of the tPAF of high risk groups.

Methods

We developed a unifying, data-guided framework to simulate risk group turnover in deterministic, compartmental transmission models. We applied the framework to an illustrative model of an STI and examined the mechanisms by which risk group turnover influenced equilibrium prevalence across risk groups. We then fit a model with and without turnover to the same risk-stratified STI prevalence targets and compared the inferred level of risk heterogeneity and tPAF of the highest risk group projected by the two models.

Results

The influence of turnover on group-specific prevalence was mediated by three main phenomena: movement of previously high risk individuals with the infection into lower risk groups; changes to herd effect in the highest risk group; and changes in the number of partnerships where transmission can occur. Faster turnover led to a smaller ratio of STI prevalence between the highest and lowest risk groups. Compared to the fitted model without turnover, the fitted model with turnover inferred greater risk heterogeneity and consistently projected a larger tPAF of the highest risk group over time.

Implications

If turnover is not captured in epidemic models, the projected contribution of high risk groups, and thus, the potential impact of prioritizing interventions to address their needs, could be underestimated. To aid the next generation of tPAF models, data collection efforts to parameterize risk group turnover should be prioritized.

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A new framework for parameterizing turnover in risk groups is developed.

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Mechanisms by which turnover influences sexually transmitted infection (STI), prevalence in risk groups are examined.

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Turnover reduces the ratio of equilibrium STI prevalence in high vs low risk groups.

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Inferred risk heterogeneity is higher when fitting transmission models with turnover.

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Ignoring turnover in risk could underestimate the transmission population attributable fraction (tPAF), of high risk groups to the overall epidemic.

The effect of primary drug resistance on CD4+ cell decline and the viral load set-point in HIV-positive individuals before the start of antiretroviral therapy

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the effect of primary resistance and selected polymorphic amino-acid substitutions in HIV reverse transcriptase and protease on the CD4 cell count and viral load set point before the start of antiretroviral treatment.

DESIGN

Prospective cohort study.

METHODS

A total of 6180 individuals with a resistance test prior to starting antiretroviral treatment accessing care in HIV clinics across Europe who had at least one viral load and one CD4+ test available were included in the analysis. The impact of amino-acid substitutions variants on viral load and CD4+ trends was investigated using linear mixed models. Clusters of mutations were studied using principal component analysis.

RESULTS

Overall, the detection of any primary resistance was not associated with either the speed of CD4+ cell decline or the viral load set point. However, transmitted nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor and protease inhibitor resistance appeared to be weakly associated with lower viral load set points, as were the polymorphic G16E or Q92K protease mutations. There was some evidence suggesting that these effects varied according to HIV subtype, with the effects of transmitted nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor and protease resistance being particularly marked among individuals with a subtype B virus. A cluster of five polymorphic protease substitutions at position 20, 13, 36, 69 and 89 was associated with less steep CD4+ cell declines and lower viral load set points.

CONCLUSION

Although we found little evidence for an association between primary resistance and CD4+ speed of decline and viral load set point, the potential role of polymorphic protease (alone or in clusters) and their interplay with HIV subtype needs to be further evaluated.

Sexual network drivers of HIV and herpes simplex virus type 2 transmission

OBJECTIVES

HIV and herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) infections are sexually transmitted and propagate in sexual networks. Using mathematical modeling, we aimed to quantify effects of key network statistics on infection transmission, and extent to which HSV-2 prevalence can be a proxy of HIV prevalence.

DESIGN/METHODS

An individual-based simulation model was constructed to describe sex partnering and infection transmission, and was parameterized with representative natural history, transmission, and sexual behavior data. Correlations were assessed on model outcomes (HIV/HSV-2 prevalences) and multiple linear regressions were conducted to estimate adjusted associations and effect sizes.

RESULTS

HIV prevalence was one-third or less of HSV-2 prevalence. HIV and HSV-2 prevalences were associated with a Spearman's rank correlation coefficient of 0.64 (95% confidence interval: 0.58-0.69). Collinearities among network statistics were detected, most notably between concurrency versus mean and variance of number of partners. Controlling for confounding, unmarried mean/variance of number of partners (or alternatively concurrency) were the strongest predictors of HIV prevalence. Meanwhile, unmarried/married mean/variance of number of partners (or alternatively concurrency), and clustering coefficient were the strongest predictors of HSV-2 prevalence. HSV-2 prevalence was a strong predictor of HIV prevalence by proxying effects of network statistics.

CONCLUSION

Network statistics produced similar and differential effects on HIV/HSV-2 transmission, and explained most of the variation in HIV and HSV-2 prevalences. HIV prevalence reflected primarily mean and variance of number of partners, but HSV-2 prevalence was affected by a range of network statistics. HSV-2 prevalence (as a proxy) can forecast a population's HIV epidemic potential, thereby informing interventions.

Degree and correlates of sexual mixing in female sex workers in Karnataka, India

Background The degree of sexual mixing plays an important role in understanding disparities in sexually transmissible infections and HIV across social groups. This study examines the degree of sexual age mixing, and explores its individual and partnership level correlates among female sex workers (FSWs) in Karnataka, India.

METHODS

Data were drawn from special behavioural surveys conducted in 2006-07 among 577 FSWs in two districts of Karnataka: Belgaum and Bangalore. Sexual mixing in age was assessed as the difference in age between FSWs and their sexual partners, and the degree of assortativeness in sexual mixing was assessed using Newman's assortativity coefficient.

RESULTS

A total of 577 FSWs were interviewed; 418 of whom reported two or more partnerships, resulting in 942 partnerships. In about half (52%) of these partnerships, the age difference between the FSW and her sexual partner was 5 years or more. The degree of assortativity in age mixing was 0.098, indicating minimally assortative mixing. The disassortativeness in age mixing was positively associated with young age and no formal education, and negatively with duration in sex work. Partnerships which were of a commercial nature were more likely to be disassortative than noncommercial partnerships.

CONCLUSION

The minimally assortative age mixing indicates sexually transmissible infections can transfer from members of one age group to another. Efforts are required to limit the transmission of infection from one group to other by promoting safer sexual behaviour.

Dynamics of non-cohabiting sex partnering in sub-Saharan Africa: a modelling study with implications for HIV transmission

Objective

To develop an analytical understanding of non-cohabiting sex partnering in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) using nationally representative sexual behaviour data.

Method

A non-homogenous Poisson stochastic process model was used to describe the dynamics of non-cohabiting sex. The model was applied to 25 countries in SSA and was fitted to Demographic and Health Survey data. The country-specific mean values and variances of the distributions of number of non-cohabiting partners were estimated.

Results

The model yielded overall robust fits to the empirical distributions stratified by marital status and sex. The median across all country-specific mean values was highest for unmarried men at 0.574 non-cohabiting partners over the last 12 months, followed by that of unmarried women at 0.337, married men at 0.192 and married women at 0.038. The median of variances was highest for unmarried men at 0.127, followed by married men at 0.057, unmarried women at 0.003 and married women at 0.000. The largest variability in mean values across countries was for unmarried men (0.103–1.206), and the largest variability in variances was among unmarried women (0.000–1.994).

Conclusions

Non-cohabiting sex appears to be a random ‘opportunistic’ phenomenon linked to situations that may facilitate it. The mean values and variances of number of partners in SSA show wide variation by country, marital status and sex. Unmarried individuals have larger mean values than their married counterparts, and men have larger mean values than women. Unmarried individuals appear to play a disproportionate role in driving heterogeneity in sexual networks and possibly epidemiology of sexually transmitted infections.

Disease prediction models and operational readiness

The objective of this manuscript is to present a systematic review of biosurveillance models that operate on select agents and can forecast the occurrence of a disease event. We define a disease event to be a biological event with focus on the One Health paradigm. These events are characterized by evidence of infection and or disease condition. We reviewed models that attempted to predict a disease event, not merely its transmission dynamics and we considered models involving pathogens of concern as determined by the US National Select Agent Registry (as of June 2011). We searched commercial and government databases and harvested Google search results for eligible models, using terms and phrases provided by public health analysts relating to biosurveillance, remote sensing, risk assessments, spatial epidemiology, and ecological niche modeling. After removal of duplications and extraneous material, a core collection of 6,524 items was established, and these publications along with their abstracts are presented in a semantic wiki at http://BioCat.pnnl.gov. As a result, we systematically reviewed 44 papers, and the results are presented in this analysis. We identified 44 models, classified as one or more of the following: event prediction (4), spatial (26), ecological niche (28), diagnostic or clinical (6), spread or response (9), and reviews (3). The model parameters (e.g., etiology, climatic, spatial, cultural) and data sources (e.g., remote sensing, non-governmental organizations, expert opinion, epidemiological) were recorded and reviewed. A component of this review is the identification of verification and validation (V&V) methods applied to each model, if any V&V method was reported. All models were classified as either having undergone Some Verification or Validation method, or No Verification or Validation. We close by outlining an initial set of operational readiness level guidelines for disease prediction models based upon established Technology Readiness Level definitions.

The rise and fall of HIV in high-prevalence countries: a challenge for mathematical modeling

Several countries with generalized, high-prevalence HIV epidemics, mostly in sub-Saharan Africa, have experienced rapid declines in transmission. These HIV epidemics, often with rapid onsets, have generally been attributed to a combination of factors related to high-risk sexual behavior. The subsequent declines in these countries began prior to widespread therapy or implementation of any other major biomedical prevention. This change has been construed as evidence of behavior change, often on the basis of mathematical models, but direct evidence for behavior changes that would explain these declines is limited. Here, we look at the structure of current models and argue that the common “fixed risk per sexual contact" assumption favors the conclusion of substantial behavior changes. We argue that this assumption ignores reported non-linearities between exposure and risk. Taking this into account, we propose that some of the decline in HIV transmission may be part of the natural dynamics of the epidemic, and that several factors that have traditionally been ignored by modelers for lack of precise quantitative estimates may well hold the key to understanding epidemiologic trends.

Impact of high-risk sex and focused interventions in heterosexual HIV epidemics: a systematic review of mathematical models

Background

The core-group theory of sexually transmitted infections suggests that targeting prevention to high-risk groups (HRG) could be very effective. We aimed to quantify the contribution of heterosexual HRGs and the potential impact of focused interventions to HIV transmission in the wider community.

Methods

We systematically identified studies published between 1980 and 2011. Studies were included if they used dynamical models of heterosexual HIV transmission, incorporated behavioural heterogeneity in risk, and provided at least one of the following primary estimates in the wider community (a) the population attributable fraction (PAF) of HIV infections due to HRGs, or (b) the number per capita or fraction of HIV infections averted, or change in HIV prevalence/incidence due to focused interventions.

Findings

Of 267 selected articles, 22 were included. Four studies measured the PAF, and 20 studies measured intervention impact across 265 scenarios. In low-prevalence epidemics (≤5% HIV prevalence), the estimated impact of sex-worker interventions in the absence of risk compensation included: 6–100% infections averted; 0.9–6.2 HIV infections averted per 100,000 adults; 11–94% and 4–47% relative reduction in prevalence and incidence respectively. In high-prevalence epidemics (>5% HIV prevalence), sex-worker interventions were estimated to avert 6.8–40% of HIV infections and up to 564 HIV infections per 100,000 adults, and reduce HIV prevalence and incidence by 13–27% and 2–14% respectively. In both types of epidemics, greater heterogeneity in HIV risk was associated with a larger impact on the fraction of HIV infections averted and relative reduction in HIV incidence.

Conclusion

Focused interventions, as estimated by mathematical models, have the potential to reduce HIV transmission in the wider community across low- and high-prevalence regions. However, considerable variability exists in estimated impact, suggesting that a targeted approach to HIV prevention should be tailored to local epidemiological context.

HSV-2 serology can be predictive of HIV epidemic potential and hidden sexual risk behavior in the Middle East and North Africa

BACKGROUND

HIV prevalence is low in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, though the risk or potential for further spread in the future is not well understood. Behavioral surveys are limited in this region and when available have serious limitations in assessing the risk of HIV acquisition. We demonstrate the potential use of herpes simplex virus-2 (HSV-2) seroprevalence as a marker for HIV risk within MENA.

METHODS

We designed a mathematical model to assess whether HSV-2 prevalence can be predictive of future HIV spread. We also conducted a systematic literature review of HSV-2 seroprevalence studies within MENA.

RESULTS

We found that HSV-2 prevalence data are rather limited in this region. Prevalence is typically low among the general population but high in established core groups prone to sexually transmitted infections such as men who have sex with men and female sex workers. Our model predicts that if HSV-2 prevalence is low and stable, then the risk of future HIV epidemics is low. However, expanding or high HSV-2 prevalence (greater than about 20%), implies a risk for a considerable HIV epidemic. Based on available HSV-2 prevalence data, it is not likely that the general population in MENA is experiencing or will experience such a considerable HIV epidemic. Nevertheless, the risk for concentrated HIV epidemics among several high-risk core groups is present.

CONCLUSIONS

HSV-2 prevalence surveys provide a useful mechanism for identifying and corroborating populations at risk for HIV within MENA. HSV-2 serology offers an effective tool for probing hidden sexual risk behaviors in a region where quality behavioral data are limited.

[Trends in the AIDS epidemic in groups at highest risk in Brazil, 1980-2004]

The objective of this paper was to present the trends in the AIDS epidemic in the population groups at highest risk in Brazil. Discriminant analysis was used to reclassify cases with unknown risk into one of the three groups: IDU (injecting drug users), MSM (men who have sex with men), and heterosexuals. AIDS incidence rates by gender and exposure category were estimated for the period 1980-2004. In 1980-1988, 63.6% of AIDS cases were homosexual or bisexual males and 10% were females. Since 1988, there has been a decrease in the proportion of MSM and an increase in the other categories. Despite the incidence trends observed by exposure category, when the incidence rates were compared, the risk was much higher among MSM as compared to heterosexuals. Analysis of the AIDS epidemic dynamics in Brazil emphasizes the importance of MSM and male IDU as higher-risk groups.

Dynamic modeling of herpes simplex virus type-2 (HSV-2) transmission: issues in structural uncertainty

The sexually transmitted infection (STI) Herpes simplex virus type-2 (HSV-2) is of public health concern because it is a very common frequently unrecognized lifelong infection, which may facilitate HIV transmission. Within HIV/STI modeling, structural uncertainty has received less attention than parametric uncertainty. By merging the compartments of a "complex" model, a "simple" HSV-2 model is developed. Sexual interactions between female sex workers (FSWs) and clients are modeled using data from India. Latin Hypercube Sampling selects from parameter distributions and both models are run for each of the 10,000 parameter sets generated. Outputs are compared (except for 2,450 unrealistic simulations). The simple model is a good approximation to the complex model once the HSV-2 epidemic has reached 60% of the equilibrium prevalence (95% of the 7,550 runs produced <10% relative error). The simple model is a reduced version of the complex model that retains details implicitly. For late-stage epidemics, the simple model gives similar prevalence trends to the complex model. As HSV-2 epidemics in many populations are advanced, the simple model is accurate in most instances, although the complex model may be preferable for early epidemics. The analysis highlights the issue of structural uncertainty and the value of reducing complexity.

Genital herpes has played a more important role than any other sexually transmitted infection in driving HIV prevalence in Africa

Background

Extensive evidence from observational studies suggests a role for genital herpes in the HIV epidemic. A number of herpes vaccines are under development and several trials of the efficacy of HSV-2 treatment with acyclovir in reducing HIV acquisition, transmission, and disease progression have just reported their results or will report their results in the next year. The potential impact of these interventions requires a quantitative assessment of the magnitude of the synergy between HIV and HSV-2 at the population level.

Methods and Findings

A deterministic compartmental model of HIV and HSV-2 dynamics and interactions was constructed. The nature of the epidemiologic synergy was explored qualitatively and quantitatively and compared to other sexually transmitted infections (STIs). The results suggest a more substantial role for HSV-2 in fueling HIV spread in sub-Saharan Africa than other STIs. We estimate that in settings of high HSV-2 prevalence, such as Kisumu, Kenya, more than a quarter of incident HIV infections may have been attributed directly to HSV-2. HSV-2 has also contributed considerably to the onward transmission of HIV by increasing the pool of HIV positive persons in the population and may explain one-third of the differential HIV prevalence among the cities of the Four City study. Conversely, we estimate that HIV had only a small net impact on HSV-2 prevalence.

Conclusions

HSV-2 role as a biological cofactor in HIV acquisition and transmission may have contributed substantially to HIV particularly by facilitating HIV spread among the low-risk population with stable long-term sexual partnerships. This finding suggests that prevention of HSV-2 infection through a prophylactic vaccine may be an effective intervention both in nascent epidemics with high HIV incidence in the high risk groups, and in established epidemics where a large portion of HIV transmission occurs in stable partnerships.

Heterosexual behavior patterns and the spread of HIV/AIDS: the interacting effects of rate of partner change and sexual mixing

OBJECTIVES

This study evaluates whether the influence of sexual mixing patterns on the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) epidemic curve is sensitive to the prevailing rates of sexual partner change in a population.

STUDY DESIGN

A biobehavioral macrosimulation model is employed to assess the interacting dynamics of the rates of sexual partner change and patterns of sexual mixing between population subgroups. HIV spread is simulated under 2 rates of partner change scenarios and under various degrees of assortativeness in sexual mixing patterns.

RESULTS

With high rates of partner change, disassortativeness in sexual mixing tends to increase the overall size of the HIV epidemic. However, when relatively low rates of partner change are simulated, disassortative mixing yields a smaller epidemic. This pattern is further influenced by the underlying sexual transmission probabilities of HIV.

CONCLUSIONS

Each of the various determinants of the sexual spread of HIV must not be considered in isolation. Instead, the interactive nature of those determinants should be accounted for in discussions of HIV epidemic dynamics.

Temporal trends of HIV-related risk behavior among Brazilian military conscripts, 1997-2002

PURPOSE

To present selected results of military conscript surveys related to HIV/AIDS, conducted in Brazil, 1997-2002.

METHODS

Questionnaires including information on socio-demographic data, sexual behavior practices, sexually transmitted infections-related problems, and use of injecting drugs were completed by 30970 individuals, obtained through a 2-stage sampling. An index of sexual risk behavior was developed to take into account multiplicity of partners and irregularity of condom use. The HIV infection prevalence rate was estimated for 2002. Logistic regression was used to identify the most important determinants of HIV infection.

RESULTS

The percentage of regular condom use increased from 38% (1997) to 49% (2002), and the index of sexual risk behavior decreased from 0.98 in 1997 to 0.87, in 2002. The HIV infection prevalence rate was 0.09%, in 2002, which remained unchanged since 1998 Riskier sexual practices among young men with incomplete education and among "men who have sex with men" were found as well as among the participants who reported at least one sexually transmitted infections - related problem. The most important predictor of HIV infection was to be positive for syphilis.

CONCLUSIONS

The estimated value of the HIV infection prevalence supports the diagnosis of a concentrated HIV epidemic, in Brazil. Results indicate that particular attention needs to be paid for regional differentials, and for special subgroups, in Brazil.

Evaluating human papillomavirus vaccination programs

Human papillomavirus (HPV) has been implicated as the primary etiologic agent of cervical cancer. Potential vaccines against high-risk HPV types are in clinical trials. We evaluated vaccination programs with a vaccine against HPV-16 and HPV-18. We developed disease transmission models that estimated HPV prevalence and infection rates for the population overall, by age group, by level of sexual activity within each age group, and by sex. Data were based on clinical trials and published and unpublished sources. An HPV-16/18 vaccine for 12-year-old girls would reduce cohort cervical cancer cases by 61.8%, with a cost-effectiveness ratio of 14,583 dollars per quality-adjusted life year (QALY). Including male participants in a vaccine rollout would further reduce cervical cancer cases by 2.2% at an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of 442,039 dollars/QALY compared to female-only vaccination. Vaccination against HPV-16 and HPV-18 can be cost-effective, although including male participants in a vaccination program is generally not cost-effective, compared to female-only vaccination.

Evaluating effectiveness of syringe exchange programmes: current issues and future prospects

Although a large body of international literature has found syringe exchange programmes (SEPs) to be associated with reduced incidence of blood borne pathogens among injection drug users, recent studies have fuelled controversy surrounding SEP effectiveness. Existing studies are observational in nature and have seldom considered ecologic aspects affecting SEP functioning and evaluation. The authors apply concepts from infectious disease epidemiology to discuss the direct and indirect effects of SEP upon the spread of blood borne pathogens in drug users, their social networks and the broader community. Further, the authors discuss social policies, particularly drug control policies, which have directly and/or indirectly limited SEP functioning at local and national levels. A critical review of the literature suggests that biases common to observational studies can account for higher HIV incidence among SEP attenders relative to non-attenders. Strong selection factors often lead high-risk drug users to be over-represented among SEP attenders. Failure to account for these factors and the indirect effects of SEPs can bias interpretations of programme effectiveness. Future SEP evaluations should consider behavioural data, the local ethnographic context, the prevalence of infectious disease in the groups under study and the structural components of SEP that are most and least effective at reducing incidence of blood borne pathogens. Hierarchical models that take into account the ecological dimensions of SEP are recommended as an approach for future studies. Beyond methodologic concerns, the authors discuss social, legal and programmatic obstacles that must be overcome in order to maximise SEP effectiveness.