A FRAX® model for the assessment of fracture probability in Belgium

A new FRAX model for Brazil

Fracture probabilities derived from the original FRAX model for Brazil were compared to those from an updated model based on more recent regional estimates of the incidence of hip fracture. Fracture probabilities were consistently lower in the updated FRAX model. Despite large differences between models, differences in the rank order of fracture probabilities were minimal.

OBJECTIVE

Recent epidemiological data indicate that the risk of hip fracture in Brazil is lower than that used to create the original FRAX model. This paper describes the epidemiology of hip fracture in Brazil and the synthesis of an updated FRAX model with the aim of comparing this new model with the original model.

METHODS

Hip fracture rates from three cities in three regions were combined, weighted by the population of each region. For other major fractures, incidence rates for Brazil were estimated using Swedish ratios for hip to other major osteoporotic fracture (humerus, forearm or clinical vertebral fractures). Mortality estimates were taken from the UN.

RESULTS

Compared to the original FRAX model, the updated model gave lower 10-year fracture probabilities in men and women at all ages. Notwithstanding, there was a very close correlation in fracture probabilities between the original and updated models (r > 0.99) so that the revisions had little impact on the rank order of risk.

CONCLUSION

The disparities between the original and updated FRAX models indicate the importance of updating country-specific FRAX models with the advent of significant changes in fracture epidemiology.

Selection for treatment of patients at high risk of fracture by the short versus long term prediction models - data from the Belgian FRISBEE cohort

Our imminent model was less sensitive but more selective than FRAX® in the choice of treatment to prevent imminent fractures. This new model decreased NNT by 30%, which could reduce the treatment costs. In the Belgian FRISBEE cohort, the effect of recency further decreased the selectivity of FRAX®.

PURPOSE

We analyzed the selection for treatment of patients at high risk of fracture by the Belgian FRISBEE imminent model and the FRAX® tool.

METHODS

We identified in the FRISBEE cohort subjects who sustained an incident MOF (mean age 76.5 ± 6.8 years). We calculated their estimated 10-year risk of fracture using FRAX® before and after adjustment for recency and the 2-year probability of fracture using the FRISBEE model.

RESULTS

After 6.8 years of follow-up, we validated 480 incident and 54 imminent MOFs. Of the subjects who had an imminent fracture, 94.0% had a fracture risk estimated above 20% by the FRAX® before correction for recency and 98.1% after adjustment, with a specificity of 20.2% and 5.9%, respectively. The sensitivity and specificity of the FRISBEE model at 2 years were 72.2% and 55.4%, respectively, for a threshold of 10%. For these thresholds, 47.3% of the patients were identified at high risk in both models before the correction, and 17.2% of them had an imminent MOF. The adjustment for recency did not change this selection. Before the correction, 34.2% of patients were selected for treatment by FRAX® only, and 18.8% would have had an imminent MOF. This percentage increased to 47% after the adjustment for recency, but only 6% of those would suffer a MOF within 2 years.

CONCLUSION

In our Belgian FRISBEE cohort, the imminent model was less sensitive but more selective in the selection of subjects in whom an imminent fracture should be prevented, resulting in a lower NNT. The correction for recency in this elderly population further decreased the selectivity of FRAX®. These data should be validated in additional cohorts before using them in everyday practice.

Muscle strength and physical performance contribute to and improve fracture risk prediction in older people: A narrative review

Osteoporotic fractures present a major health problem with an increasing prevalence in older people. Fractures are associated with premature mortality, reduced quality of life, subsequent fracture, and increased costs. Hence, it is crucial to identify those at higher risk of fracture. Fracture risk assessment tools incorporated clinical risk factors to improve fracture predictive power over BMD alone. However, fracture risk prediction using these algorithms remains suboptimal, warranting further improvement. Muscle strength and physical performance measurements have been associated with fracture risk. In contrast, the contribution of sarcopenia, the composite condition of low muscle mass, muscle strength and/or physical performance, to fracture risk is unclear. It is uncertain whether this is due to the problematic definition of sarcopenia per se or limitations of the diagnostic tools and cut-off points of the muscle mass component. The recent position statement from the Sarcopenia Definition and Outcomes Consortium confirmed the inclusion of muscle strength and performance in the definition of sarcopenia but not DXA-assessed lean mass. Therefore, clinicians should focus on functional assessment (muscle strength and performance) rather than muscle mass, at least as assessed by DXA, as predictors of fractures. Muscle strength and performance are modifiable risk factors. Resistance exercise improves muscle parameters in the elderly, potentially leading to reduced risk of falls and fractures in the general population and in those who sustained a fracture. Therapists may consider exercise intervention to improve muscle parameters and potentially reduce the risk of fractures. The aim of this review was to explore 1) the contribution of muscle parameters (i.e., muscle mass, strength, and physical performance) to fracture risk in older adults, and 2) the added predictive accuracy of these parameters beyond the existing fracture assessment tools. These topics provide the rationale for investigating strength and physical performance interventions to reduce fracture risk. Most of the included publications showed that muscle mass is not a good predictor of fracture risk, while poor muscle strength and performance are associated with an increased risk of fracture, particularly in men, independent of age, BMD, and other risk factors for fractures. Muscle strength and performance can potentially improve the predictive accuracy in men beyond that obtained by the fracture risk assessment tools, Garvan FRC and FRAX.

The effect of fracture recency on observed 5-year fracture probability: A study based on the FRISBEE cohort

Introduction

Prediction models, especially the FRAX®, are largely used to estimate the fracture risk at ten years, but the current algorithm does not take into account the time elapsed after a fracture. Kanis et al. recently proposed correction factors allowing to adjust the FRAX® score for fracture recency. The objective of this work was to analyze the effect of fracture recency in the FRISBEE cohort.

Methods

We identified in the FRISBEE cohort subjects who sustained a validated fracture during the first 5 years following an incident MOF. We calculated their estimated 5-year risk of fracture using FRAX® uncorrected, adjusted for recency and further adjusted for the MOF/hip ratios calibration factors previously derived for the Belgian FRAX®. We compared the fracture risk estimated by FRAX® before and after these corrections to the observed incidence of validated fractures in our cohort.

Results

In our ongoing cohort, 376 subjects had a first non-traumatic incident validated MOF after inclusion; 81 had a secondary fracture during the 5 years follow-up period after this index fracture. The FRAX® score significantly under-evaluated the observed incidence of fractures in our cohort by 54.7 % (fracture rate of 9.7 %; 95 % CI, 6.8-12.9 %) if uncorrected (p < 0.001) and by 32.6 % after correction for recency (14.5 %; 95 % CI, 11.1-18.2 %) (p = 0.01). The calibration for MOF/hip ratios improved the prediction (17.5 %; 95 % CI: 13.7-21.4 %) (p = 0.2). After correcting for recency and for calibration, the predicted value was over-evaluated by 22 % (fracture rate of 26.1 %; 95 % CI, 21.6-30.5 %) but this over-evaluation was not significant (p = 0.1).

Conclusion

Our data indicate that the correction of the FRAX® score for fracture recency improves fracture prediction. However, correction for calibration and recency tends to overestimate fracture risk in this population of elderly women.

MOF/Hip Fracture Ratio in a Belgian Cohort of Post-menopausal Women (FRISBEE): Potential Impact on the FRAX® Score

The ratio between major osteoporotic fractures (MOFs) and hip fractures in the Belgian FRAX® tool to predict fractures is currently based on Swedish data. We determined these ratios in a prospective cohort of Belgian postmenopausal women. 3560 women, aged 60-85 years (70.1 ± 6.4 years), were included in a prospective study from 2007 to 2013 and surveyed yearly (FRISBEE). We analyzed the number of validated incident fractures until October 2020 by age and sites and compared the MOFs/hip ratios in this cohort with those from the Swedish databases. We registered 1336 fractures (mean follow-up of 9.1 years). The MOFs/hip ratios extracted from the FRISBEE cohort were 10.7 [95% CI: (5.6-20.5)], 6.4 [4.7-8.7], and 5.0 [3.9-6.5] for women of 60-69, 70-79, and 80-89 years old, respectively. These ratios were 1.7-1.8 times higher for all age groups than those from the Swedish data, which decreased from 6.5 (60-64 years group) down to 1.8 (85-89 age group). The overall MOFs/hip ratio in Frisbee was 6.0 [5.9-6.1], which was higher than any Swedish ratio between 65 and 85 years. Nevertheless, the decrease of the ratios with age paralleled that observed in Sweden. In this Brussels prospective cohort, MOFs/hip ratios were 1.7-1.8 times those observed in Sweden currently used for MOFs prediction in the Belgian FRAX® version. This discrepancy can greatly modify the estimation of the risk of MOFs, which is among the main criteria used to recommend a pharmacological treatment for osteoporosis in several countries.

Intervention thresholds to identify postmenopausal women with high fracture risk: A single center study based on the Philippines FRAX model

Objectives

This study is designed to estimate appropriate intervention thresholds for the Philippines Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX) model to identify postmenopausal women with high fracture risk.

Methods

Age dependent intervention thresholds were calculated for a woman of body mass index 25 kg/m² aged 50-80 years with a previous fragility fracture without other clinical risk factors. Fixed thresholds were developed using a database of 1546 postmenopausal women who underwent dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry for clinical reasons. Major and hip fracture risks were estimated using clinical risk factors with and without bone mineral density (BMD) input. Women were categorized to high risk and low risk groups according to the age dependent thresholds. The best cut-points were determined considering the optimum sensitivity and specificity using receiver operating characteristic analysis.

Results

The age dependent intervention thresholds of major fracture risk ranged from 2.8 to 6.9% while hip fracture risk ranged from 0.4 to 3.0% between 50 and 80 years of age. Major fracture threshold of 3.75% and hip fracture threshold of 1.25% were the best fixed thresholds observed and non-inclusion BMD in the fracture risk estimations did not change the values. As a hybrid method, 3% major fracture and 1% hip fracture risks for those < 70 years old and age-dependent thresholds for those aged 70 years and above can be recommended.

Conclusions

The intervention thresholds estimated in the current study can be applied to identify Filipino postmenopausal women with a high fracture risk. Clinicians should decide on the type of thresholds most appropriate.

Independent External Validation of FRAX and Garvan Fracture Risk Calculators: A Sub-Study of the FRISBEE Cohort

Probabilistic models including clinical risk factors with or without bone mineral density (BMD) have been developed to estimate the 5‐ or 10‐year absolute fracture risk. We investigated the performance of the FRAX and Garvan tools in a well‐characterized population‐based cohort of 3560 postmenopausal, volunteer women, aged 60 to 85 years at baseline, included in the Fracture Risk Brussels Epidemiological Enquiry (FRISBEE) cohort, during 5 years of follow‐up. Baseline data were used to calculate the estimated 10‐year risk of hip and major osteoporotic fractures (MOFs) for each participant using FRAX (Belgium). We computed the 5‐year risk according to the Garvan model with BMD. For calibration, the predicted risk of fracture was compared with fracture incidence across a large range of estimated fracture risks. The accuracy of the calculators to predict fractures was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC). The FRAX tool was well calibrated for hip fractures (slope 1.09, p < 0.001; intercept −0.001, p = 0.46), but it consistently underestimated the incidence of major osteoporotic fractures (MOFs) (slope 2.12, p < 0.001; intercept −0.02, p = 0.06). The Garvan tool was well calibrated for “any Garvan” fractures (slope 1.05, p < 0.001; intercept 0.01, p = 0.37) but largely overestimated the observed hip fracture rate (slope 0.32, p < 0.001; intercept 0.006, p = 0.05). The predictive value for hip fractures was better for FRAX (AUC: 0.841, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.795–0.887) than for Garvan (AUC: 0.769, 95% CI 0.702–0.836, p = 0.01). The Garvan AUC for “any Garvan” fractures was 0.721 (95% CI 0.693–0.749) and FRAX AUC for MOFs was 0.708 (95% CI 0.675–0.741). In conclusion, in our Belgian cohort, FRAX estimated quite well hip fractures but underestimated MOFs, while Garvan overestimated hip fracture risk but showed a good estimation of “any Garvan” fractures. Both models had a good discriminatory value for hip fractures but only a moderate discriminatory ability for MOFs or “any Garvan” fractures. © 2021 The Authors. JBMR Plus published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

The Belgian Bone Club 2020 guidelines for the management of osteoporosis in postmenopausal women

PURPOSE

To provide updated evidence-based guidelines for the management of osteoporosis in postmenopausal women in Belgium.

METHODS

The Belgian Bone Club (BBC) gathered a guideline developer group. Nine "Population, Intervention, Comparator, Outcome" (PICO) questions covering screening, diagnosis, non-pharmacological and pharmacological treatments, and monitoring were formulated. A systematic search of MEDLINE, the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, and Scopus was performed to find network meta-analyses, meta-analyses, systematic reviews, guidelines, and recommendations from scientific societies published in the last 10 years. Manual searches were also performed. Summaries of evidence were provided, and recommendations were further validated by the BBC board members and other national scientific societies' experts.

RESULTS

Of the 3840 references in the search, 333 full texts were assessed for eligibility, and 129 met the inclusion criteria. Osteoporosis screening using clinical risk factors should be considered. Patients with a recent (<2 years) major osteoporotic fracture were considered at very high and imminent risk of future fracture. The combination of bone mineral density measured by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry and 10-year fracture risk was used to categorize patients as low or high risk. Patient education, the combination of weight-bearing and resistance training, and optimal calcium intake and vitamin D status were recommended. Antiresorptive and anabolic osteoporosis treatment should be considered for patients at high and very high fracture risk, respectively. Follow-up should focus on compliance, and patient-tailored monitoring should be considered.

CONCLUSION

BBC guidelines and 25 guideline recommendations bridge the gap between research and clinical practice for the screening, diagnosis, and management of osteoporosis.

Evaluation of a Panel of MicroRNAs that Predicts Fragility Fracture Risk: A Pilot Study

The assessment of fragility fracture risk based on bone densitometry and FRAX°, although commonly used, has shown some limitations. MicroRNAs (miRNAs) are promising biomarkers known to regulate post-transcriptional gene expression. Many studies have already shown that microRNAs are involved in bone homeostasis by modulating osteoblast and osteoclast gene expression. In this pilot study, we investigated the ability of an miRNA panel (namely, the OsteomiR° score) to predict fragility fracture risk in older people. miRNAs were extracted from the sera of 17 persons who developed a fracture within 3 years of collecting the serum and 16 persons who did not experience fractures in the same period. Nineteen miRNAs known to be involved in bone homeostasis were assessed, and 10 miRNAs were employed to calculate the OsteomiR° score. We found a trend towards higher OsteomiR° scores in individuals who experienced fractures compared to control subjects. The most suitable cut-off that maximized sensitivity and specificity was determined by ROC curve analysis, and a positive predictive value of 68% and a sensitivity of 76% were obtained. The OsteomiR° score was higher in osteopenic and osteoporotic subjects compared to subjects with a normal T score. Additionally, the OsteomiR° score predicted more fracture events than the recommended "need-to-treat" thresholds based on FRAX° 10-year probability. miRNAs reflect impairments in bone homeostasis several years before the occurrence of a fracture. The OsteomiR° score seems to be a promising miRNA panel for fragility fracture risk prediction and might have added value compared to FRAX°. Given the limited cohort size, further studies should be dedicated to validating the OsteomiR° score.

Association Between the Decline in Muscle Health and the Decline in Bone Health in Older Individuals from the SarcoPhAge Cohort

The longitudinal relationship between bone health and muscle health is scarcely explored. We aimed to explore the relationship between bone decline and muscle decline over 1 year in older individuals. We used data from the SarcoPhAge cohort, which aims to identify the consequences of sarcopenia. In this way, this study also highlights the yearly changes in muscle mass (by dual-energy absorptiometry), muscle weakness (by grip strength), and/or physical performance (by the short physical performance battery test). Measurements of areal bone mineral density (aBMD), enabling the diagnosis of osteoporosis, and bone microarchitecture (by means of the trabecular bone score) were also performed each year. A 1-year clinically relevant decline in bone and muscle health components was evidenced using the Edwards-Nunnally index. Among the 232 participants with complete data (75.5 ± 5.4 years, 57.8% women), we observed an association between a clinically relevant decline in the skeletal muscle mass index (SMI) and a decrease in aBMD (adjusted OR = 2.12 [1.14-2.51] for the spine, 2.42 [1.10-5.34] for the hip and 2.12 [1.04-5.81] for the neck), as well as a significant association between SMI and deterioration of the skeletal microarchitecture (aOR = 3.99 [2.07-7.70]). A clinically relevant decline in muscle strength was associated with a decrease in spine aBMD (aOR = 2.93 [1.21-7.12]) and hip aBMD (aOR = 3.42 [1.37-7.64]) only. The decline in muscle performance was related to the decline in bone microarchitecture only (aOR = 2.52 [1.23-5.17]). Individuals with incident sarcopenia had an approximately fivefold higher risk of concomitantly developing osteoporosis. A dynamic relationship between impaired muscle and bone health was observed, with an obvious association between the concomitant incidences of osteoporosis and sarcopenia.

A brief history of FRAX

This paper reviews the research programme that went into the development of FRAX® and its impact in the 10 years since its release in 2008.

INTRODUCTION

Osteoporosis is defined on the measurement of bone mineral density though the clinical consequence is fracture. The sensitivity of bone mineral density measurements for fracture prediction is low, leading to the development of FRAX to better calculate the likelihood of fracture and target anti-osteoporosis treatments.

METHODS

The method used in this paper is literature review.

RESULTS

FRAX, developed over an 8-year period, was launched in 2008. Since the launch of FRAX, models have been made available for 64 countries and in 31 languages covering more than 80% of the world population.

CONCLUSION

FRAX provides an advance in fracture risk assessment and a reference technology platform for future improvements in performance characteristics.

Less strict intervention thresholds for the FRAX and TBS-adjusted FRAX predict clinical fractures in osteopenic postmenopausal women with no prior fractures

Little is known about the clinical relevance of treating post-menopausal women with no prior history of fragility fracture and bone mineral densities (BMD) within the osteopenic range. In recent years, in addition to BMD and FRAX fracture probability assessments, a surrogate measure of bone micro-architecture quality, called the trabecular bone score (TBS), has been proven to predict future fragility fractures independently of both BMD and the FRAX. In this retrospective analysis of a follow-up study, we compared three risk assessment instruments-the FRAX, the TBS, and a TBS-adjusted FRAX score-in their ability, to predict future fragility fractures over a minimum of five years of follow-up among post-menopausal osteopenic women with no prior fragility fractures. We also sought to determine if more- versus less-stringent criteria were better when stratifying patients into higher-risk patients warranting osteoporosis-targeted intervention versus lower-risk patients in whom intervention would usually be deemed unnecessary. Over a mean 5.2 years follow-up, 18 clinical fragility fractures were documented among 127 women in the age 50 years and older (mean age = 66.1). On multivariate analysis utilizing regression models and Kaplan-Meier curve analysis, less-stringent criteria for the FRAX and TBS-adjusted FRAX were capable of predicting future fractures (with sensitivity/specificity of 83/31; 39/77 and 78/50% for TBS, FRAX and TBS-adjusted FRAX, respectively), while more-stringent criteria were incapable of doing so (with sensitivity/specificity of 56/60; 39/77 and 39/74 for TBS, FRAX and TBS-adjusted FRAX, respectively). Neither TBS threshold alone was a significant predictor of future fracture in our study. However, hazard ratio analysis revealed slight superiority of the TBS-adjusted FRAX over the FRAX alone (HR = 3.09 vs. 2.79). Adjusting the FRAX tool by incorporating the TBS may be useful to optimize the detection of post-menopausal osteopenic women with no prior fractures who warrant osteoporosis-targeted therapy.

Bone health assessment in older people with or without muscle health impairment

This study investigated the relationship between muscle and bone status in elderly individuals. Our results suggested links between sarcopenia and osteoporosis; impairment in muscle status (i.e., muscle mass, muscle strength, and physical performance) is associated with deterioration in bone mass and texture subsequently leading to an increased risk of fracture.

INTRODUCTION

Accumulating evidence has shown associations between sarcopenia and osteoporosis, but existing studies face inconsistencies in the clinical definition of both conditions. Thus, we sought to investigate bone health among older individuals with or without muscle health impairment.

METHODS

We conducted an analysis of cross-sectional data available from the Sarcopenia and Physical Impairment with Advancing Age (SarcoPhAge) study. Sarcopenia was diagnosed according to the European Working Group on Sarcopenia in Older People (EWGSOP) (i.e., a low muscle mass plus either low muscle strength or low physical performance). Muscle mass and areal bone mineral density (aBMD) were determined using dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DEXA). Muscle strength was assessed using a hand dynamometer, and physical performance was assessed with the Short Physical Performance Battery test. Using the cutoff limits proposed by the EWGSOP, we have classified women in the "low SMI group" when its value was < 5.50 kg/m², in the "low muscle strength group" when strength was < 20 kg, and in the "low physical performance group" when SPPB < 8 points. The thresholds of < 7.26 kg/m² (for SMI), < 30 kg (for muscle strength), and SPPB < 8 points were used for men. The 10-year fracture risk was obtained using the FRAX® tool. Moreover, bone texture was determined using the trabecular bone score (TBS) method.

RESULTS

The study sample consisted of 288 older subjects aged 74.7 ± 5.7 years, and 59.0% of the subjects were women. Sarcopenia was diagnosed in 43 individuals (14.9%), and osteoporosis was diagnosed in 36 subjects (12.5%). Moreover, aBMD values were, most of the time, lower in older men and women with muscle impairment (i.e., low muscle mass, low muscle strength, and low physical performance). For these subjects, we also noted a higher probability of fracture. When comparing bone quality, there were no significant differences in the TBS values between sarcopenic and non-sarcopenic older men and women or between those with low and high muscle mass. However, when controlling for confounders (i.e., age, BMI, number of co-morbidities, smoking status, and nutritional status), TBS values were lower in older women with low muscle strength (p = 0.04) and in older men with low physical performance (p = 0.01).

CONCLUSIONS

Our study showed interrelationships between components of sarcopenia and osteoporosis, with older subjects with muscle impairment having poorer bone health.

Evaluation of the validity of treatment decisions based on surrogate country models before introduction of the Polish FRAX and recommendations in comparison to current practice

INTRODUCTION

Patients diagnosed before the Polish FRAX was introduced may require re-evaluation and treatment changes if the diagnosis was established according to a surrogate country FRAX score. The aim of the study was to evaluate the validity of treatment decisions based on the surrogate country model before introduction of the Polish FRAX and to provide recommendations based on the current practice.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

We evaluated a group of 142 postmenopausal women (70.7 ±8.9 years) who underwent bone mineral density measurements. We used 22 country-specific FRAX models and compared these to the Polish model.

RESULTS

The mean risk values for hip and major osteoporotic fractures within 10 years were 4.575 (from 0.82 to 8.46) and 12.47% (from 2.18 to 21.65), respectively. In the case of a major fracture, 94.4% of women would receive lifestyle advice, and 5.6% would receive treatment according to the Polish FRAX using the guidelines of the National Osteoporosis Foundation (NOF). Polish treatment thresholds would implement pharmacotherapy in 32.4% of the study group. In the case of hip fractures, 45% of women according to the NOF would require pharmacotherapy but only 9.8% of women would qualify according to Polish guidelines. Nearly all surrogate FRAX calculator scores proved significantly different form Polish (p > 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

More patients might have received antiresorptive medication before the Polish FRAX. This study recommends re-evaluation of patients who received medical therapy before the Polish FRAX was introduced and a review of the recommendations, considering the side effects of antiresorptive medication.

Occurrence of Clinical Bone Fracture Following a Prolonged Stay in Intensive Care Unit: A Retrospective Controlled Study

Clinical consequences of critical illness and critical care (CC) on bone health remain largely unexplored. This retrospective study aimed to assess the number of new bone fractures (BF) following a prolonged length of stay (LOS) in intensive care unit (ICU). Adults admitted in our tertiary ICU during 2013 with a stay >7 days were included (CC group). Patients who died in ICU or lost to follow-up were excluded. For each CC patient still alive after 2 years of follow-up, 2 control patients, scheduled for surgery during 2013, were recruited and matched for gender and age. Basal fracture risk before admission was calculated using FRAX tool. General practitioners were phoned to check out new bone fracture (BF) during 2 years after admission. Of the 457 enrolled CC patients, 207 did not meet inclusion criteria and 72 died during FU (median age 72 [65-77] years). New BF occurred in 9 of the 178 patients still alive at the end of FU (5%). Median age of these patients was 64 [53-73] years. Fractured patients did not differ from non-fractured ones based on demographic and clinical characteristics, excepting for FRAX risks that were higher in fractured patients. In the control group, 327 patients were analyzed. Their rate of BF was 3.4% without statistical significance compared to the CC group. FRAX risks were similar in both groups. The risk of new BF in CC group, expressed as an odds ratio, was 50% higher than in the control group without achieving statistical significance (odds ratio 1.53; 95% confidence interval 0.62-3.77; p = 0.35). When comparing ICU survivors to patients who underwent uncomplicated surgery in the present preliminary study included limited cohorts, the fracture risk in the 2 years following prolonged ICU stay was not statistically higher. However, CC fractured patients had higher FRAX risks than non-fractured patients. Such screening could help to target prevention and appropriate treatment strategies.

The FRAX-based Lebanese osteoporosis treatment guidelines: rationale for a hybrid model

We describe our approach to develop FRAX-based osteoporosis treatment guidelines in Lebanon, a country with low-moderate fracture rates. A hybrid assessment algorithm that combines a fixed 10 % intervention threshold until age 70 years, and an age-dependent threshold thereafter, was deemed most suitable.

INTRODUCTION

The FRAX risk calculator is used to guide intervention thresholds in several national osteoporosis guidelines. This study aimed to describe the approach in developing FRAX-based osteoporosis treatment guidelines in Lebanon, a country with relatively low fracture rates.

METHODS

We reassessed previous national guidelines combined with an evaluation of age-dependent and fixed FRAX-based intervention threshold models used in the UK, the USA, and Canada. We took into consideration the risk for major osteoporotic fractures (MOF) and the proportions of subjects considered for therapy using such thresholds, before finalizing a model for Lebanon.

RESULTS

The new Lebanese guidelines retained the recommendation to treat individuals with fragility fracture at the hip or spine. A femoral neck T-score ≤-2.5 in subjects without fractures was dropped, since it would imply consideration of therapy for individuals with a 10-year risk for MOF of <10 %, up to age 75 years in women. After considering the impact of both age-dependent and fixed intervention thresholds, we chose a new hybrid algorithm, combining a fixed 10 % treatment threshold until age 70 years and an age-dependent threshold thereafter.

CONCLUSION

The Lebanese FRAX-based hybrid model takes into consideration the risk for MOF and the proportions of subjects considered for treatment. This model avoids consideration of drug therapy in a large proportion of younger subjects at low risk for fracture and targets high risk elderly individuals. It was deemed most suitable for Lebanon and may be an option for other countries with relatively low fracture rates.

A systematic review of intervention thresholds based on FRAX : A report prepared for the National Osteoporosis Guideline Group and the International Osteoporosis Foundation

This systematic review identified assessment guidelines for osteoporosis that incorporate FRAX. The rationale for intervention thresholds is given in a minority of papers. Intervention thresholds (fixed or age-dependent) need to be country-specific.

INTRODUCTION

In most assessment guidelines, treatment for osteoporosis is recommended in individuals with prior fragility fractures, especially fractures at spine and hip. However, for those without prior fractures, the intervention thresholds can be derived using different methods. The aim of this report was to undertake a systematic review of the available information on the use of FRAX® in assessment guidelines, in particular the setting of thresholds and their validation.

METHODS

We identified 120 guidelines or academic papers that incorporated FRAX of which 38 provided no clear statement on how the fracture probabilities derived are to be used in decision-making in clinical practice. The remainder recommended a fixed intervention threshold (n = 58), most commonly as a component of more complex guidance (e.g. bone mineral density (BMD) thresholds) or an age-dependent threshold (n = 22). Two guidelines have adopted both age-dependent and fixed thresholds.

RESULTS

Fixed probability thresholds have ranged from 4 to 20 % for a major fracture and 1.3-5 % for hip fracture. More than one half (39) of the 58 publications identified utilised a threshold probability of 20 % for a major osteoporotic fracture, many of which also mention a hip fracture probability of 3 % as an alternative intervention threshold. In nearly all instances, no rationale is provided other than that this was the threshold used by the National Osteoporosis Foundation of the USA. Where undertaken, fixed probability thresholds have been determined from tests of discrimination (Hong Kong), health economic assessment (USA, Switzerland), to match the prevalence of osteoporosis (China) or to align with pre-existing guidelines or reimbursement criteria (Japan, Poland). Age-dependent intervention thresholds, first developed by the National Osteoporosis Guideline Group (NOGG), are based on the rationale that if a woman with a prior fragility fracture is eligible for treatment, then, at any given age, a man or woman with the same fracture probability but in the absence of a previous fracture (i.e. at the 'fracture threshold') should also be eligible. Under current NOGG guidelines, based on age-dependent probability thresholds, inequalities in access to therapy arise especially at older ages (≥70 years) depending on the presence or absence of a prior fracture. An alternative threshold using a hybrid model reduces this disparity.

CONCLUSION

The use of FRAX (fixed or age-dependent thresholds) as the gateway to assessment identifies individuals at high risk more effectively than the use of BMD. However, the setting of intervention thresholds needs to be country-specific.

Establishing and evaluating FRAX® probability thresholds in Taiwan

BACKGROUND/PURPOSE

The Taiwanese FRAX^® calculator was launched in 2010. However, cost-effectiveness thresholds for the prescription of antiosteoporosis medications were not established. This study aims to establish and evaluate FRAX^®-based probability thresholds in Taiwan.

METHODS

Using previous data from Taiwan and literature, we determined cost-effectiveness thresholds for prevention of osteoporotic fractures by alendronate with a Markov model, as well as using two other translational approaches. Sensitivity analysis was applied using different alendronate prices. A clinical sample was used to test these Taiwan-specific thresholds by determining the percentages of high-risk patients who would be qualified for current National Health Insurance reimbursement.

RESULTS

With the Markov model, the intervention threshold for hip fracture was 7% for women and 6% for men; for major osteoporotic fracture, it was 15% for women and 12.5% for men. Both translational approach models were cost effective only for certain age groups. However, if branded alendronate was reimbursed at 60% of the current price, they became cost effective in almost all age groups. This clinical screening study showed that the National Health Insurance Administration model identified the highest proportion (44%) of patients qualified for National Health Insurance reimbursements, followed by the Markov model (30%), and the United States model (22%).

CONCLUSION

Three FRAX^®-based models of alendronate use were established in Taiwan to help optimize treatment strategies. The government is encouraged to incorporate FRAX^®-based approaches into the reimbursement policy for antiosteoporosis medicines.

Burden of high fracture probability worldwide: secular increases 2010-2040

The number of individuals aged 50 years or more at high risk of osteoporotic fracture worldwide in 2010 was estimated at 158 million and is set to double by 2040.

INTRODUCTION

The aim of this study was to quantify the number of individuals worldwide aged 50 years or more at high risk of osteoporotic fracture in 2010 and 2040.

METHODS

A threshold of high fracture probability was set at the age-specific 10-year probability of a major fracture (clinical vertebral, forearm, humeral or hip fracture) which was equivalent to that of a woman with a BMI of 24 kg/m(2) and a prior fragility fracture but no other clinical risk factors. The prevalence of high risk was determined worldwide and by continent using all available country-specific FRAX models and applied the population demography for each country.

RESULTS

Twenty-one million men and 137 million women had a fracture probability at or above the threshold in the world for the year 2010. The greatest number of men and women at high risk were from Asia (55 %). Worldwide, the number of high-risk individuals is expected to double over the next 40 years.

CONCLUSION

We conclude that individuals with high probability of osteoporotic fractures comprise a very significant disease burden to society, particularly in Asia, and that this burden is set to increase markedly in the future. These analyses provide a platform for the evaluation of risk assessment and intervention strategies.

Current and future treatments of osteoporosis in men

One in three osteoporotic fractures occur in men and the consequences of a fracture in men tend to be more severe than in women. Still, only a small minority of men with high risk of fracture are detected and treated. Although there are gender differences in the pathophysiology of osteoporosis, such as in the pattern of bone loss, similarities predominate, which is also the case for clinical risk factors. It seems appropriate to consider treatment for men and women with a similar 10 year fracture risk. Drugs now approved for treatment of osteoporosis in men include the anti-resorptive bisphosphonates alendronate, residronate and zoledronic acid, the anti-resorptive drug denosumab, the bone-forming agent teriparatide, and (not in the US) strontium ranelate with mild opposite effects on resorption and formation. Although the evidence level for efficacy and safety of these drugs in men is still relatively limited, available data indicate that treatment effects in men are very similar to what has been observed in the treatment of postmenopausal osteoporosis. Denosumab is also approved for treatment in men receiving androgen deprivation therapy for non-metastatic prostate cancer; bisphosphonates and teriparatide are also available to clinicians for treatment of glucocorticoid-induced osteoporosis in men. Testosterone treatment may be indicated in men with documented symptomatic hypogonadism, but osteoporosis is neither a sufficient nor a specific indication for testosterone treatment. New compounds with well advanced clinical development include odanacatib, a selective inhibitor of the cysteine protease cathepsin-K, and romosozumab, a monoclonal antibody against sclerostin.

Cost-effectiveness of vitamin D and calcium supplementation in the treatment of elderly women and men with osteoporosis

BACKGROUND

The supplementation with vitamin D and calcium has been recommended for elderly, specifically those with increased risk of fractures older than 65 years. This study aims to assess the cost-effectiveness of vitamin D and calcium supplementation in elderly women and men with osteoporosis and therefore to assess if this recommendation is justified in terms of cost-effectiveness.

METHODS

A validated model for economic evaluations in osteoporosis was used to estimate the cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained of vitamin D/calcium supplementation compared with no treatment. The model was populated with cost and epidemiological data from a Belgian health-care perspective. Analyses were conducted in women and men with a diagnosis of osteoporosis (i.e. bone mineral density T-score ≤-2.5). A literature search was conducted to describe the efficacy of vitamin D and calcium in terms of fracture risk reduction.

RESULTS

The cost per QALY gained of vitamin D/calcium supplementation was estimated at €40 578 and €23 477 in women and men aged 60 years, respectively. These values decreased to €7912 and €10 250 at the age of 70 years and vitamin D and calcium supplementation was cost-saving at the age of 80 years, meaning that treatment cost was less than the costs of treating osteoporotic fractures of the no-treatment group.

CONCLUSION

This study suggests that vitamin D and calcium supplementation is cost-effective for women and men with osteoporosis aged over 60 years. From an economic perspective, vitamin D and calcium should therefore be administrated in these populations including those also taking other osteoporotic treatments.

Osteonecrosis of the jaw in a male osteoporotic patient treated with denosumab

Osteonecrosis of the jaw (ONJ) is a clinical condition associated with long-term exposure to inhibitors of bone resorption, mainly bisphosphonates. Denosumab (DMab) is a human monoclonal antibody of the receptor activator of nuclear factor kappa-B ligand. It prevents osteoclast-mediated bone resorption and is widely prescribed for the management of postmenopausal osteoporosis. Whereas ONJ has already been reported in women treated with DMab, we report for the first time the development of ONJ, following tooth extraction, in a male patient treated for idiopathic osteoporosis with DMab. Due to the constant increase in DMab prescription, for the management of osteoporosis, in both genders, physicians should be made aware of this potential risk.

FRAX®: prediction of major osteoporotic fractures in women from the general population: the OPUS study

Purposes

The aim of this study was to analyse how well FRAX® predicts the risk of major osteoporotic and vertebral fractures over 6 years in postmenopausal women from general population.

Patients and methods

The OPUS study was conducted in European women aged above 55 years, recruited in 5 centers from random population samples and followed over 6 years. The population for this study consisted of 1748 women (mean age 74.2 years) with information on incident fractures. 742 (43.1%) had a prevalent fracture; 769 (44%) and 155 (8.9%) of them received an antiosteoporotic treatment before and during the study respectively. We compared FRAX® performance with and without bone mineral density (BMD) using receiver operator characteristic (ROC) c-statistical analysis with ORs and areas under receiver operating characteristics curves (AUCs) and net reclassification improvement (NRI).

Results

85 (4.9%) patients had incident major fractures over 6 years. FRAX® with and without BMD predicted these fractures with an AUC of 0.66 and 0.62 respectively. The AUC were 0.60, 0.66, 0.69 for history of low trauma fracture alone, age and femoral neck (FN) BMD and combination of the 3 clinical risk factors, respectively. FRAX® with and without BMD predicted incident radiographic vertebral fracture (n = 65) with an AUC of 0.67 and 0.65 respectively. NRI analysis showed a significant improvement in risk assignment when BMD is added to FRAX®.

Conclusions

This study shows that FRAX® with BMD and to a lesser extent also without FN BMD predict major osteoporotic and vertebral fractures in the general population.

Cost-effectiveness of strontium ranelate in the treatment of male osteoporosis

The results of this study suggest that, under the assumption of same relative risk reduction of fractures in men as for women, strontium ranelate could be considered a cost-effective strategy compared with no treatment for the treatment of osteoporotic men from a Belgian healthcare payer perspective.

INTRODUCTION

This study was conducted to estimate the cost-effectiveness of strontium ranelate in the treatment of osteoporotic men.

METHODS

A previously validated Markov microsimulation model was adapted to estimate the cost (<euro>2,010) per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained of strontium ranelate compared with no treatment. Similar efficacy data on lumbar spine and femoral neck bone mineral density (BMD) between men with osteoporosis at high risk of fracture (MALEO Trial) and postmenopausal osteoporotic women (pivotal SOTI, TROPOS trials) supports the assumption, in the base-case analysis, of the same relative risk reduction of fractures in men as for women. Analyses were conducted, from a Belgian healthcare payer perspective, in the population from the MALEO Trial who is a men population with a mean age of 73 years, and BMD T-score ≤-2.5 or prevalent vertebral fracture (PVF).

RESULTS

In the MALEO population, strontium ranelate compared with no treatment was estimated at <euro>49,798 and <euro>25,584 per QALY gained using efficacy data from the intent-to-treat analysis and the per-protocol analysis including only adherent patients, respectively. In men with a BMD T-score ≤-2.5 or with PVF, the cost per QALY gained of strontium ranelate fall below thresholds of <euro>45,000 and <euro>25,000 per QALY gained based on efficacy data from the entire population of the clinical trial and from the per-protocol analyses, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The results of this study suggest that, under the assumption of same relative risk reduction of fractures in men as for women, strontium ranelate could be considered cost-effective compared with no treatment for male osteoporosis.

Health technology assessment in osteoporosis

We review the various aspects of health technology assessment in osteoporosis, including epidemiology and burden of disease, and assessment of the cost-effectiveness of recent advances in the treatment of osteoporosis and the prevention of fracture, in the context of the allocation of health-care resources by decision makers in osteoporosis. This article was prepared on the basis of a symposium held by the Belgian Bone Club and the discussions surrounding that meeting and is based on a review and critical appraisal of the literature. Epidemiological studies confirm the immense burden of osteoporotic fractures for patients and society, with lifetime risks of any fracture of the hip, spine, and forearm of around 40 % for women and 13 % for men. The economic impact is also large; for example, Europe's six largest countries spent €31 billion on osteoporotic fractures in 2010. Moreover, the burden is expected to increase in the future with demographic changes and increasing life expectancy. Recent advances in the management of osteoporosis include novel treatments, better fracture-risk assessment notably via fracture risk algorithms, and improved adherence to medication. Economic evaluation can inform decision makers in health care on the cost-effectiveness of the various interventions. Cost-effectiveness analyses suggest that the recent advances in the prevention and treatment of osteoporosis may constitute an efficient basis for the allocation of scarce health-care resources. In summary, health technology assessment is increasingly used in the field of osteoporosis and could be very useful to help decision makers efficiently allocate health-care resources.

Incidence of hip fracture in Barranquilla, Colombia, and the development of a Colombian FRAX model

A FRAX model for Colombia was released June 30, 2010. This article describes the data used to develop the Colombian FRAX model and illustrates its features compared to other countries. Hip fracture cases aged 50 years or more who were referred to all hospitals serving the city of Barranquilla were identified prospectively over a 3-year period (2004-2006). Age- and sex-stratified hip fracture incidence rates were computed using the 2005 census. Present and future numbers of hip fracture cases in Colombia were calculated from the age- and sex-specific incidence and the national population demography. Mortality rates for 1999 were extracted from nationwide databases and used to estimate hip fracture probabilities. For other major fractures (clinical vertebral, forearm, and humerus), incidence rates were imputed, using Swedish ratios for hip to other major osteoporotic fracture, and used to construct the FRAX model. Incidence of hip fracture increased with age, more markedly in women than in men. Over all ages, the female to male ratio was 1.7. By extrapolation, there were estimated to be 7,902 new hip fracture cases (2,673 men, 5,229 women) in Colombia in 2010, which was predicted to increase to 22,720 cases (7,568 men, 15,152 women) in 2035. The 10-year probability of hip or major fracture was increased in patients with a clinical risk factor, lower BMI, female gender, a higher age, and a decreased BMD T score. The remaining lifetime probability of hip fracture at the age of 50 years was 2.5 and 4.7 % in men and women, respectively, which were lower than rates in a Mexican population (3.8 and 8.5 %, respectively) and comparable with estimates for Venezuela (2.4 and 7.5 %, respectively). The FRAX tool is the first country-specific fracture-prediction model available in Colombia. It is based on the original FRAX methodology, which has been externally validated in several independent cohorts. Despite some limitations, the strengths make the Colombian FRAX tool a good candidate for implementation into clinical practice.

Incidence of hip fracture in Romania and the development of a Romanian FRAX model

A FRAX(®) model for Romania calibrated to the total Romanian population was released June 1, 2011. This article describes the data used to develop the Romanian FRAX model and illustrates its features compared to models for other countries. Age- and sex-stratified hip fracture incidence rates and mortality rates for 2010 were extracted from nationwide databases from the age of 40 years. For other major fractures, Romanian incidence rates were imputed, using Swedish ratios for hip to other major osteoporotic fracture (humerus, forearm, and clinically symptomatic vertebral fractures). Fracture incidence rates increased with increasing age: for hip fracture, incidence rates were higher among younger men than women but with a female preponderance from the age of 65 years. The 10-year probability of hip or major fracture was increased in patients with a clinical risk factor (CRF), lower BMI, female gender, higher age, and decreased BMD T score. Of the CRFs, a parental hip fracture accounted for the greatest increase in 10-year fracture probability. The Romanian FRAX tool is the first country-specific fracture prediction model. It is based on the original FRAX methodology, which has been externally validated in several independent cohorts. Despite some limitations, the strengths make the Romanian FRAX tool a good candidate for implementation into clinical practice.

Cost-effectiveness of bazedoxifene compared with raloxifene in the treatment of postmenopausal osteoporotic women

Bazedoxifene is a novel selective estrogen receptor modulator (SERM) for the prevention and treatment of osteoporosis. In addition to the therapeutic value of a new agent, evaluation of the cost-effectiveness compared with relevant alternative treatment(s) is an important consideration to facilitate healthcare decision making. This study evaluated the cost-effectiveness of bazedoxifene compared with raloxifene for the treatment of postmenopausal women with osteoporosis. The cost-effectiveness of treatment for 3 years with bazedoxifene was compared with raloxifene using an updated version of a previously validated Markov microsimulation model. Analyses were conducted from a Belgian healthcare payer perspective and, the base-case population was women (aged 70 years) with bone mineral density T-score ≤ -2.5. The effects of bazedoxifene and raloxifene on fracture risk were derived from the 3-year results of a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled and active-controlled study, including postmenopausal women with osteoporosis. The cost-effectiveness analysis based on efficacy data from the overall clinical trial indicated that bazedoxifene and raloxifene were equally cost-effective. When the results were examined based on the subgroup analysis of women at higher risk of fractures, bazedoxifene was dominant (lower cost for higher effectiveness) compared with raloxifene in most of the simulations. Sensitivity analyses confirmed the robustness of the results, which were largely independent of starting age of treatment, fracture risk, cost, and disutility. In addition, when the cost of raloxifene was reduced by one-half or when incorporating the raloxifene effects on reducing breast cancer, bazedoxifene remained cost-effective, at a threshold of €35,000 per quality-adjusted life-years gained, in 85% and 68% of the simulations, respectively. Under the assumption of improved antifracture efficacy of bazedoxifene over raloxifene in women with high risk of fractures, this study suggests that bazedoxifene can be considered cost-effective, and even dominant, when compared with raloxifene in the treatment of postmenopausal osteoporotic women.

A systematic review of hip fracture incidence and probability of fracture worldwide

The country-specific risk of hip fracture and the 10-year probability of a major osteoporotic fracture were determined on a worldwide basis from a systematic review of literature. There was a greater than 10-fold variation in hip fracture risk and fracture probability between countries.

INTRODUCTION

The present study aimed to update the available information base available on the heterogeneity in the risk of hip fracture on a worldwide basis. An additional aim was to document variations in major fracture probability as determined from the available FRAX models.

METHODS

Studies on hip fracture risk were identified from 1950 to November 2011 by a Medline OVID search. Evaluable studies in each country were reviewed for quality and representativeness and a study (studies) chosen to represent that country. Age-specific incidence rates were age-standardised to the world population in 2010 in men, women and both sexes combined. The 10-year probability of a major osteoporotic fracture for a specific clinical scenario was computed in those countries for which a FRAX model was available.

RESULTS

Following quality evaluation, age-standardised rates of hip fracture were available for 63 countries and 45 FRAX models available in 40 countries to determine fracture probability. There was a greater than 10-fold variation in hip fracture risk and fracture probability between countries.

CONCLUSIONS

Worldwide, there are marked variations in hip fracture rates and in the 10-year probability of major osteoporotic fractures. The variation is sufficiently large that these cannot be explained by the often multiple sources of error in the ascertainment of cases or the catchment population. Understanding the reasons for this heterogeneity may lead to global strategies for the prevention of fractures.

Regional and age-related variations in the proportions of hip fractures and major fractures among postmenopausal women: the Global Longitudinal Study of Osteoporosis in Women

We examined variations in proportions of hip fractures and major fractures among postmenopausal women using the Global Longitudinal Study of Osteoporosis in Women (GLOW). The proportion of major fractures that were hip fractures varied with age and region, whereas variations in the proportion of fractures that were major fractures appeared modest.

INTRODUCTION

In many countries, the World Health Organization fracture risk assessment tool calculates the probability of major fractures by assuming a uniform age-associated proportion of major fractures that are hip fractures in different countries. We further explored this assumption, using data from the GLOW.

METHODS

GLOW is an observational population-based study of 60,393 non-institutionalized women aged ≥55 years who had visited practices within the previous 2 years. Main outcome measures were self-reported prevalent fractures after the age of 45 years and incident fractures during the 2 years of follow-up.

RESULTS

The adjusted proportion of prevalent and incident major fractures after the age of 45 years that were hip fractures was higher in North America (16%, 17%) than in northern (13%, 12%) and southern Europe (10%, 10%), respectively. The proportion of incident major fractures that were hip fractures increased more than five-fold with age, from 6.6% among 55-59-year-olds to 34% among those aged ≥85 years. Regional and age-associated variations in the proportion of all incident fractures that were major fractures were less marked, not exceeding 16% and 28%, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The data suggest that there may be regional differences in the proportion of major fractures that are hip fractures in postmenopausal women. In contrast, the regional and age-related variations in the proportion of fractures that are major fractures appear to be modest. However, because of the limited number of fractures in our sample, further studies are necessary to confirm these findings.

Perception, knowledge, and use by general practitioners of Belgium of a new WHO tool (FRAX) to assess the 10-year probability of fracture

The FRAX tool that calculates the 10-year probability of having a fracture has recently been validated for Belgium. Little is known about the perception and knowledge that GPs have about this tool in their daily practice. A survey has been conducted as part of a screening campaign for various diseases. The primary objective of the present study was to assess the perception and the knowledge of the FRAX tool by GPs. The secondary objective was to assess the impact of an information brochure about the FRAX tool on these outcomes. The survey was sent to a sample of 700 GPs after only half of them had received the information brochure. The survey results show that, out of the 193 doctors who responded to the survey, one-third know the FRAX tool but less than 20 % use it in their daily clinical practice. Among those who use it, the FRAX tool is largely seen as a complementary but not as an essential tool in the diagnosis or in the management of osteoporosis. It appears that the brochure could improve the knowledge of the FRAX tool but it would not be more efficient on its use in daily practice than the other sources of information. At present, the use of the FRAX tool in Belgium is limited but an information brochure could have a positive impact on the knowledge of the FRAX tool.

Comparison of the proportion of patients potentially treated with an anti-osteoporotic drug using the current criteria of the Belgian national social security and the new suggested FRAX criteria

To assess the number of anti-osteoporosis treatments that would be reimbursed by the Belgian social security if either FRAX or the current criteria were used to determine access to reimbursement. This is a retrospective study based on data from 1,000 women randomly selected from an outpatient hospital specialized in bone metabolism in Belgium. Proportions of potentially refunded treatments between FRAX and current criteria were compared. Out of the 1,000 women files, 890 have sufficient information to assess FRAX. In Belgium, current criteria include a bone mineral density (BMD) T score below -2.5 at the lumbar spine, the femoral neck or the total hip and/or at least a prevalent vertebral fracture. Using these criteria, 167 women (18.8 %) would have access to reimbursement. Using the criteria based on the validated Belgian FRAX tool, only 116 women (13.0 %) would have access to reimbursement, meaning that access to reimbursement based on FRAX criteria would reduce by 30 % the anti-osteoporosis drug expenses covered by the national social security. Interestingly, only 65 women out of the 116 (56.0 %) selected with the FRAX criteria were also selected with the current criteria of the national social security. A substantial proportion of individuals that would potentially receive a reimbursement for their treatment using the FRAX criteria do not have access to any refund for their treatment with the current criteria. Since patients identified with the FRAX tool are those with the highest risk profile for future fractures, reappraisals of treatment reimbursement guidelines are expected in Belgium.

The clinical and economic burden of poor adherence and persistence with osteoporosis medications in Ireland

OBJECTIVES

Medication nonadherence is common for osteoporosis, but its consequences have not been well described. This study aimed to quantify the clinical and economic impacts of poor adherence and to evaluate the potential cost-effectiveness of improving patient adherence by using hypothetical behavioral interventions.

METHODS

A previously validated Markov microsimulation model was adapted to the Irish setting to estimate lifetime costs and outcomes (fractures and quality-adjusted life-year [QALY]) for three adherence scenarios: no treatment, real-world adherence, and full adherence over 3 years. The real-world scenario employed adherence and persistence data from the Irish Health Services Executive-Primary Care Reimbursement Services pharmacy claims database. We also investigated the cost-effectiveness of hypothetical behavioral interventions to improve medication adherence (according to their cost and effect on adherence).

RESULTS

The number of fractures prevented and the QALY gain obtained at real-world adherence levels represented only 57% and 56% of those expected with full adherence, respectively. The costs per QALY gained of real-world adherence and of full adherence compared with no treatment were estimated at € 11,834 and € 6,341, respectively. An intervention to improve adherence by 25% would result in an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of € 11,511 per QALY and € 54,182 per QALY, compared with real-world adherence, if the intervention cost an additional € 50 and € 100 per year, respectively.

DISCUSSION

Poor adherence with osteoporosis medications results in around a 50% reduction in the potential benefits observed in clinical trials and a doubling of the cost per QALY gained from these medications. Depending on their costs and outcomes, programs to improve adherence have the potential to be an efficient use of resources.

Trends in hip fracture incidence and in the prescription of antiosteoporosis medications during the same time period in Belgium (2000-2007)

OBJECTIVE

To examine the secular trend of hip fracture incidence in Belgium between 2000 and 2007 and the concomitant change in the prescriptions of antiosteoporosis medications.

METHODS

The incidence of hip fractures and the number of prescriptions were determined using national databases. A logistic regression including years and 5-year age range was performed to assess the secular trend of hip fracture incidence, and Pearson's correlation coefficient was calculated to examine the relationship between hip fracture incidence and the prescriptions of antiosteoporosis medications.

RESULTS

The annual number of hip fractures increased in Belgium from 13,512 in 2000 to 14,744 in 2007, with a more marked increased in men (20.4%) than in women (5.7%). The age-adjusted incidence of hip fractures was significantly decreased by 1.12% per year in women, but declined nonsignificantly by 0.34% per year in men. An increase in the prescriptions of antiosteoporosis medications in women was observed during the same time period.

CONCLUSION

Despite an increase in the number of hip fractures in Belgium between 2000 and 2007, there was a significant decrease in age-adjusted incidence in women but not in men. Although our results suggest that the decrease may be related to the extent of antiosteoporosis medications, a causal relationship cannot be ascertained and many other factors may have contributed to the decrease in age-adjusted incidence.

A comparison of case-finding strategies in the UK for the management of hip fractures

Treatment criteria published by the National Osteoporosis Guideline Group (NOGG) in the UK make more efficient use of bone mineral density (BMD) resources than the previous Royal College of Physicians (RCP) guideline.

INTRODUCTION

We compared the effectiveness of the RCP case-finding strategy previously used in the UK and the updated guideline published by NOGG, which incorporates the FRAX® fracture probability tool.

METHODS

Comparisons were made by simulating population samples of 1000 women at ages between 50 and 85 years, using age-specific prevalence of risk factors and UK-derived fracture and mortality rates. Comparators comprised the number identified at high risk, the incidence of hip fracture and the femoral neck BMD in those identified, the number needed to scan to identify a hip fracture, the acquisition cost and the cost per hip fracture averted

RESULTS

Compared with the RCP strategy, NOGG identified slightly reduced numbers of women at high risk (average 34.6% vs. 35.7% across all ages), but with lower numbers of scans required at each age. For example, NOGG required only 3.5 scans at the age of 50 years to identify one case of hip fracture, whereas RCP required 13.9. At 75 years, the corresponding numbers were 0.9 and 1.5. Thus, the acquisition costs for identifying a hip fracture case and the total costs (acquisition and treatment) per hip fracture averted were lower.

CONCLUSION

Compared to the RCP strategy, the FRAX-based NOGG strategy uses BMD resources more efficiently with lower acquisition costs and lower costs per hip fracture averted.

Calibration of FRAX ® 3.1 to the Dutch population with data on the epidemiology of hip fractures

The FRAX tool has been calibrated to the entire Dutch population, using nationwide (hip) fracture incidence rates and mortality statistics from the Netherlands. Data used for the Dutch model are described in this paper.

INTRODUCTION

Risk communication and decision making about whether or not to treat with anti-osteoporotic drugs with the use of T-scores are often unclear for patients. The recently developed FRAX models use easily obtainable clinical risk factors to estimate an individual's 10-year probability of a major osteoporotic fracture and hip fracture that is useful for risk communication and subsequent decision making in clinical practice. As of July 1, 2010, the tool has been calibrated to the total Dutch population. This paper describes the data used to develop the current Dutch FRAX model and illustrates its features compared to other countries.

METHODS

Age- and sex-stratified hip fracture incidence rates (LMR database) and mortality rates (Dutch national mortality statistics) for 2004 and 2005 were extracted from Dutch nationwide databases (patients aged 50+ years). For other major fractures, Dutch incidence rates were imputed, using Swedish ratios for hip to osteoporotic fracture (upper arm, wrist, hip, and clinically symptomatic vertebral) probabilities (age- and gender-stratified). The FRAX tool takes into account age, sex, body mass index (BMI), presence of clinical risk factors, and bone mineral density (BMD).

RESULTS

Fracture incidence rates increased with increasing age: for hip fracture, incidence rates were lowest among Dutch patients aged 50-54 years (per 10,000 inhabitants: 2.3 for men, 2.1 for women) and highest among the oldest subjects (95-99 years; 169 of 10,000 for men, 267 of 10,000 for women). Ten-year probability of hip or major osteoporotic fracture was increased in patients with a clinical risk factor, lower BMI, female gender, a higher age, and a decreased BMD T-score. Parental hip fracture accounted for the greatest increase in 10-year fracture probability.

CONCLUSION

The Dutch FRAX tool is the first fracture prediction model that has been calibrated to the total Dutch population, using nationwide incidence rates for hip fracture and mortality rates. It is based on the original FRAX methodology, which has been externally validated in several independent cohorts. Despite some limitations, the strengths make the Dutch FRAX tool a good candidate for implementation into clinical practice.

Cost effectiveness of denosumab compared with oral bisphosphonates in the treatment of post-menopausal osteoporotic women in Belgium

BACKGROUND

Denosumab has recently been shown to be well tolerated, to increase bone mineral density (BMD) and to significantly reduce the risk of hip, vertebral and non-vertebral fractures in the FREEDOM (Fracture REduction Evaluation of Denosumab in Osteoporosis every 6 Months) trial. It is becoming increasingly important to evaluate not only the therapeutic value of a new drug but also the cost effectiveness compared with the most relevant treatment alternatives.

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this study was to estimate the cost effectiveness of denosumab compared with oral bisphosphonates (branded and generic drugs) in the treatment of post-menopausal osteoporotic women in Belgium.

METHODS

Cost effectiveness of 3 years of treatment with denosumab was compared with branded risedronate and branded and generic alendronate using an updated version of a previously validated Markov microsimulation model. The model was populated with relevant cost, adherence and epidemiological data for Belgium from a payer perspective and the results were presented as costs per QALY gained (&U20AC;, year 2009 values). Analyses were performed in populations (aged ≥60 years) in which osteoporosis medications are currently reimbursed in many European countries, i.e. those with BMD T-score of -2.5 or less or prevalent vertebral fracture. Patients receiving denosumab were assumed to have a 46% lower risk of discontinuation than those receiving oral bisphosphonates, and the effect of denosumab after treatment cessation was assumed to decline linearly to zero over a maximum of 1 year.

RESULTS

Denosumab was cost effective compared with all other therapies, assuming a willingness to pay of &U20AC;40 000 per QALY gained. In particular, denosumab was found to be cost effective compared with branded alendronate and risedronate at a threshold value of &U20AC;30 000 per QALY and denosumab was dominant (i.e. lower cost and greater effectiveness) compared with risedronate from the age of 70 years in women with a T-score of -2.5 or less and no prior fractures. The cost effectiveness of denosumab compared with generic alendronate was estimated at &U20AC;38 514, &U20AC;22 220 and &U20AC;27 862 per QALY for women aged 60, 70 and 80 years, respectively, with T-scores of -2.5 or less. The equivalent values were &U20AC;37 167, &U20AC;19 718 and &U20AC;19 638 per QALY for women with prevalent vertebral fractures.

CONCLUSION

This study suggests, on the basis of currently available data, that denosumab is a cost-effective strategy compared with oral bisphosphonates (including generic alendronate) for the treatment of post-menopausal osteoporotic women, aged ≥60 years in Belgium. Denosumab therefore appears to have the potential to become a first-line treatment for post-menopausal women with osteoporosis. However, further studies would be required to evaluate the long-term safety and adherence of denosumab in real-world clinical practice as well as head-to-head effectiveness compared with oral bisphosphonates.

Interpretation and use of FRAX in clinical practice

The introduction of the WHO FRAX® algorithms has facilitated the assessment of fracture risk on the basis of fracture probability. Its use in fracture risk prediction has strengths, but also limitations of which the clinician should be aware and are the focus of this review

INTRODUCTION

The International Osteoporosis Foundation (IOF) and the International Society for Clinical Densitometry (ISCD) appointed a joint Task Force to develop resource documents in order to make recommendations on how to improve FRAX and better inform clinicians who use FRAX. The Task Force met in November 2010 for 3 days to discuss these topics which form the focus of this review.

METHODS

This study reviews the resource documents and joint position statements of ISCD and IOF.

RESULTS

Details on the clinical risk factors currently used in FRAX are provided, and the reasons for the exclusion of others are provided. Recommendations are made for the development of surrogate models where country-specific FRAX models are not available.

CONCLUSIONS

The wish list of clinicians for the modulation of FRAX is large, but in many instances, these wishes cannot presently be fulfilled; however, an explanation and understanding of the reasons may be helpful in translating the information provided by FRAX into clinical practice.

Clinical characteristics and incidence of first fracture in a consecutive sample of post-menopausal women attending osteoporosis centers: The PROTEO-1 study

BACKGROUND

Osteoporosis is a highly prevalent disease and fractures are a major cause of disability and morbidity.

AIM

The purpose of this study was to characterize post-menopausal women attending osteoporosis centers in Italy, to evaluate physician management, and to determine the incidence of first osteoporotic fracture.

SUBJECTS AND METHODS

PROTEO-1 was an observational longitudinal study with a 12-month follow-up. Data were collected from women attending osteoporosis centers. Women without prevalent fracture were eligible to enter the 1-yr follow-up phase: the clinical approach to patients according to their fracture risk profile and the incidence of fracture were recorded.

RESULTS

4269 patients were enrolled in 80 centers in the cross-sectional phase; 34.2% had an osteoporotic fracture at baseline. Patients with prevalent fractures were older and more likely to be treated compared with non-fractured patients. The incidence of vertebral or hip fracture after 1 yr was 3.84%, regardless of the calculated risk factor profile, and was significantly higher in patients with back pain at baseline (4.2%) compared with those without back pain (2.2%; p=0.023). Generally, physicians prescribed more blood exams and drugs to patients at higher risk of fracture. Among fractured patients only 24% were properly treated; the rate of non-responders to treatment was about 4%.

CONCLUSIONS

In a large, unselected sample of post-menopausal women attending osteoporosis centers, those without previous fracture were at substantial risk of future fracture, regardless of their theoretical low 10-yr fracture risk. The presence of back pain in women without previous fracture warrants close attention.