Falling age-related incidence of hip fractures in women, but not men, in Northern Ireland: 2001-2011

The impact of an ageing population on future increases in hip fracture burden

Aims

Current levels of hip fracture morbidity contribute greatly to the overall burden on health and social care services. Given the anticipated ageing of the population over the coming decade, there is potential for this burden to increase further, although the exact scale of impact has not been identified in contemporary literature. We therefore set out to predict the future incidence of hip fracture and help inform appropriate service provision to maintain an adequate standard of care.

Methods

Historical data from the Scottish Hip Fracture Audit (2017 to 2021) were used to identify monthly incidence rates. Established time series forecasting techniques (Exponential Smoothing and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) were then used to predict the annual number of hip fractures from 2022 to 2029, including adjustment for predicted changes in national population demographics. Predicted differences in service-level outcomes (length of stay and discharge destination) were analyzed, including the associated financial cost of any changes.

Results

Between 2017 and 2021, the number of annual hip fractures increased from 6,675 to 7,797 (15%), with a rise in incidence from 313 to 350 per 100,000 (11%) for the at-risk population. By 2029, a combined average projection forecast the annual number of hip fractures at 10,311, with an incidence rate of 463 per 100,000, representing a 32% increase from 2021. Based upon these projections, assuming discharge rates remain constant, the total overall length of hospital stay following hip fracture in Scotland will increase by 60,699 days per annum, incurring an additional cost of at least £25 million per year. Approximately five more acute hip fracture beds may be required per hospital to accommodate this increased activity.

Conclusion

Projection modelling demonstrates that hip fracture burden and incidence will increase substantially by 2029, driven by an ageing population, with substantial implications for health and social care services.

Global burden of hip fracture: The Global Burden of Disease Study

This study is the first to measure global burden of hip fracture in patients aged 55 years and older across 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. Our study further proved that the global burden of hip fracture is still large. Hip fractures among males are perhaps underestimated, and older adults should be given more attention.

PURPOSE

Hip fracture is a tremendous universal public health challenge, but no updated comprehensive and comparable assessment of hip fracture incidence and burden exists for most of the world in older adults.

METHODS

Using data from the Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) 2019, we estimated the number and rates of the incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLD) of hip fracture across 204 countries and territories in patients aged 55 years and older from 1990 to 2019.

RESULTS

In 2019, the incidence, prevalence, and YLDs rates of hip fracture in patients aged 55 years and older were 681.35 (95% UI 508.36-892.27) per 100000 population, 1191.39 (95% UI 1083.80-1301.52) per 100000 population, and 130.78 (95% UI 92.26-175.30) per 100000 population. During the three decades, the incidence among people aged below 60 years showed a downward trend, whereas it showed a rapid upward trend among older adults. All the numbers and rates of hip fractures among females were higher than those among males and increased with age, with the highest number and rate in the highest age group. Notably, the male to female ratio of the incidence for people aged over 55 years increased from 0.577 in 1990 to 0.612 in 2019. Falls were the leading cause among both sexes and in all age groups.

CONCLUSIONS

The incidence and the number of hip fractures among patients aged 55 years and older increased over the past three decades, indicating that the global burden of hip fracture is still large. Hip fractures among males are perhaps underestimated, and older adults should be given more attention.

The incidence of musculoskeletal injuries: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Aims

The aim of this systematic review and meta-analysis was to gather epidemiological information on selected musculoskeletal injuries and to provide pooled injury-specific incidence rates.

Methods

PubMed (National Library of Medicine) and Scopus (Elsevier) databases were searched. Articles were eligible for inclusion if they reported incidence rate (or count with population at risk), contained data on adult population, and were written in English language. The number of cases and population at risk were collected, and the pooled incidence rates (per 100,000 person-years) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated by using either a fixed or random effects model.

Results

The screening of titles yielded 206 articles eligible for inclusion in the study. Of these, 173 (84%) articles provided sufficient information to be included in the pooled incidence rates. Incidences of fractures were investigated in 154 studies, and the most common fractures in the whole adult population based on the pooled incidence rates were distal radius fractures (212.0, 95% CI 178.1 to 252.4 per 100,000 person-years), finger fractures (117.1, 95% CI 105.3 to 130.2 per 100,000 person-years), and hip fractures (112.9, 95% CI 82.2 to 154.9 per 100,000 person-years). The most common sprains and dislocations were ankle sprains (429.4, 95% CI 243.0 to 759.0 per 100,000 person-years) and first-time patellar dislocations (32.8, 95% CI 21.6 to 49.7 per 100,000 person-years). The most common injuries were anterior cruciate ligament (17.5, 95% CI 6.0 to 50.2 per 100,000 person-years) and Achilles (13.7, 95% CI 9.6 to 19.5 per 100,000 person-years) ruptures.

Conclusion

The presented pooled incidence estimates serve as important references in assessing the global economic and social burden of musculoskeletal injuries. Cite this article: Bone Joint Res 2022;11(11):814–825.

Validation of Operational Definition to Identify Patients with Osteoporotic Hip Fractures in Administrative Claims Data

As incidences of osteoporotic hip fractures (OHFs) have increased, identifying OHFs has become important to establishing the medical guidelines for their management. This study was conducted to develop an operational definition to identify patients with OHFs using two diagnosis codes and eight procedure codes from health insurance claims data and to assess the operational definition’s validity through a chart review. The study extracted data on OHFs from 522 patients who underwent hip surgeries based on diagnosis codes. Orthopedic surgeons then reviewed these patients’ medical records and radiographs to identify those with true OHFs. The validities of nine different algorithms of operational definitions, developed using a combination of three levels of diagnosis codes and eight procedure codes, were assessed using various statistics. The developed operational definition showed an accuracy above 0.97 and an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve above 0.97, indicating excellent discriminative power. This study demonstrated that the operational definition that combines diagnosis and procedure codes shows a high validity in detecting OHFs and can be used as a valid tool to detect OHFs from big health claims data.

Changing trends in hip fracture epidemiology in the Republic of Ireland: a follow-up study

A national, population-based study of hip fracture epidemiology is reported following a previously published study for the same population to ascertain the accuracy of projected incidence rates. Results suggest a decline in age-specific incidence rates in females but not males, and an over-estimation of same in the previously reported projections.

PURPOSE

Accurate estimates of hip fracture numbers and incidence rates are necessary for health service resource planning. A study in 2009 estimated projected figures for 2016 and 2026, for the Republic of Ireland. The purpose of the current study was to scrutinize these projections, based upon actual population and fracture statistics for the year 2016.

METHODS

Population data was obtained from the Central Statistics Office, and hip fracture data was obtained from the National HIPE Database for the year 2016, using similar search criteria to the previously published study. Hip fracture numbers and incidence rates were calculated. The calculated figures were compared to projected figures from the previous report.

RESULTS

Population projection models used in the 2009 paper accurately reflected the 2016 Irish population. For younger age groups, projected number of fractures closely estimated actual numbers, however, for those over 70 years of age, hip fracture projections overestimated the actual fracture numbers observed. There was a significant difference in the age-specific hip fracture rates in the over 70 s sub-groups compared to the published results of the 2009 study.

CONCLUSIONS

Hip fracture numbers continue to increase, though the age-specific incidence rates in the Republic of Ireland are reducing in the older age groups. The previously published study over-estimated hip fracture projections for the year 2016 (and potentially 2026) due to a false assumption of a stable age-specific incidence rate in the Republic of Ireland, which is in fact reducing.

Incidence of and trends in hip fracture among adults in urban China: A nationwide retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Hip fracture is a public health concern because of its considerable morbidity, excess mortality, great risk of disability, and high societal healthcare costs. China has the largest population of older people in the world and is experiencing rapid population aging and facing great challenges from an increasing number of hip fractures. However, few studies reported the epidemiology, especially at a national level. We aimed to evaluate trends in hip fracture incidence and associated costs for hospitalization in China.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We conducted a population-based study using data between 2012 and 2016 from the national databases of Urban Employee Basic Medical Insurance and Urban Resident Basic Medical Insurance in China, covering about 480 million residents. Data from around 102.56 million participants aged 55 years and older during the study period were analyzed. A total of 190,560 incident hip fracture patients (mean age 77.05 years, standard deviation 8.94; 63.99% female) were identified. Primary outcomes included the age- and sex-specific incidences of hip fracture. Associated annual costs for hospitalization were also calculated. Incidence was described as per 100,000 person-years at risk, and 95% confidence intervals were computed assuming a Poisson distribution. Hip fracture incidence overall in China did not increase during the study period despite rapid population aging. Incidence per 100,000 was 180.72 (95% CI 137.16, 224.28; P < 0.001) in 2012 and 177.13 (95% CI 139.93, 214.33; P < 0.001) in 2016 for females, and 121.86 (95% CI 97.30, 146.42; P < 0.001) in 2012 and 99.15 (95% CI 81.31, 116.99; P < 0.001) in 2016 for males. For both sexes, declines in hip fracture incidence were observed in patients aged 65 years and older, although incidence was relatively stable in younger patients. However, the total absolute number of hip fractures in those 55 years and older increased about 4-fold. The total costs for hospitalization showed a steep rise from US$60 million to US$380 million over the study period. Costs for hospitalization per patient increased about 1.59-fold, from US$4,300 in 2012 to US$6,840 in 2016. The main limitation of the study was the unavailability of data on imaging information to adjudicate cases of hip fracture.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results show that hip fracture incidence among patients aged 55 and over in China reached a plateau between 2012 and 2016. However, the absolute number of hip fractures and associated medical costs for hospitalization increased rapidly because of population aging.

East-west gradient in hip fracture incidence in Spain: how much can we explain by following the pattern of risk factors?

Our objective was to analyze the incidence and trend of hip fracture in Spain and its distribution by Autonomous Community (AC). In Spain, the age-adjusted incidence rate of hip fracture is decreasing. There is great variability in the incidence and tendency of hip fracture among the different ACs. Genetic, demographic, and climatic factors and cohort effect factors of the civil war explain 96% of this variability.

INTRODUCTION

In Spain, there is great variability between the different Autonomous Communities (ACs) in the incidence of hip fracture. The objectives of our study are (1) to estimate the incidence rate and trend of hospital admissions for hip fracture in Spain and by ACs and (2) to analyze risk factors/markers that could explain the variability in the incidence and trend between different ACs.

METHOD

This work includes 2 studies (TREND-HIP and VAR-HIP). TREND-HIP: retrospective, national, observational study based on the administrative database of the National Health System that includes a Minimum Basic Data Set (MBDS) of hospital admissions. VAR-HIP: ecological study based on the analysis of the results obtained in TREND-HIP study, with different risk factors/markers obtained from different sources.

RESULTS

In the 17 years included in the analysis, there were 744,848 patients diagnosed with hip fracture. The global age-adjusted rate of hip fracture at the national level was 315.38/100,000 person*year (95% CI 312.36-317.45); by AC, the rate varied from 213.97 in the Canary Islands to 363.13 in the Valencia and Cataluña communities. We observe an east-west gradient in Spain. The trend for both sexes was - 0.67% (95% CI 0.9990-0.9957) (p < 0.001). In the analysis of risk factors/markers that explain this distribution, we found significant correlations with genetic factors, demographics, climatic factors and the time a region was on the Republican side of the civil war. The linear regression model that includes the factors that show significant correlation explains 96% of the variability observed.

CONCLUSION

In Spain, the age-adjusted incidence rate for hip fracture is decreasing. There is a great variability in the incidence and tendency of hip fracture among the different ACs. Genetic, demographic, climatic factors and the cohort effect of the civil war explain 96% of this variability.

The impact of cerclage cabling on unstable intertrochanteric and subtrochanteric femoral fractures: a retrospective review of 465 patients

PURPOSE

To assess the potential impact of using cerclage cables or wires when undertaking fixation of unstable intertrochanteric and subtrochanteric fractures.

METHODS

Patients were identified from a validated hospital database which included patients from all trauma units within Northern Ireland from 2008 to 2015. The primary outcome measure was return to theatre for any reason. Secondary outcome measures included quality of reduction, tip-apex distance, length of stay, mortality at 3 and 12 months and functional outcomes assessed by Barthel Index and mobility.

RESULTS

465 patients were included (157 in the cerclage/wire group and 308 without). Mean age of 79.6 years, with 330 females and 135 males. There was no statistical difference between the groups in relation to baseline demographics and risk factors for complications. 24 patients required further surgery, 13 (8.3%) in the cerclage group and 11 (3.6%) in those without (p < 0.03). Cabling of intertrochanteric fractures resulted in further surgery in 9.1% versus 3.4% without. Quality of reduction was improved in the cerclage group (p < 0.01), however improvements were less noticeable in intertrochanteric fractures (32.3% classified as good) compared to subtrochanteric fractures (52.4% good). Length of stay was longer in the cerclage group (p < 0.01). No differences were noted in mortality, Barthel score or mobility at 3 and 12 months.

CONCLUSIONS

Cerclage cables/wires can augment fixation in subtrochanteric fractures with potential benefits including improving quality of reduction. Evidence for their use in intertrochanteric fractures is much more contentious and we would advise they only be used where a definite improvement in reduction can be obtained with the minimum number possible.

Trends in hip fracture in patients with rheumatoid arthritis: results from the Spanish National Inpatient Registry over a 17-year period (1999-2015). TREND-AR study

Purpose

To analyse trends in hip fracture (HF) rates in patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) over an extended time period (17 years).

Methods

This observational retrospective survey was performed by reviewing data from the National Surveillance System for Hospital Data, which includes more than 98% of Spanish hospitals. All hospitalisations of patients with RA and HF that were reported from 1999 to 2015 were analysed. Codes were selected using the Ninth International Classification of Diseases, Clinical Modification: ICD-9-CM: RA 714.0 to 714.9 and HF 820.0 to 820.3. The crude and age-adjusted incidence rate of HF was calculated by age and sex strata over the last 17 years. General lineal models were used to analyse trends.

Results

Between 1999 and 2015, 6656 HFs occurred in patients with RA of all ages (84.25% women, mean age 77.5 and 15.75% men, mean age 76.37). The age-adjusted osteoporotic HF rate was 221.85/100 000 RA persons/ year (women 227.97; men 179.06). The HF incidence rate increased yearly by 3.1% (95% CI 2.1 to 4.0) during the 1999–2015 period (p<0.001) and was more pronounced in men (3.5% (95% CI 2.1 to 4.9)) than in women (3.1% (95% CI 2.3 to 4.1)). The female to male ratio decreased from 1.54 in 1999 to 1.14 in 2015. The average length of hospital stays (ALHS) decreased (p<0.001) from 16.76 days (SD 15.3) in 1999 to 10.78 days (SD 7.72) in 2015. Age at the time of hospitalisation increased (p<0.001) from 75.3 years (SD 9.33) in 1999 to 79.92 years (SD 9.47) in 2015. There was a total of 326 (4.9%) deaths during admission, 247 (4.4%) in women and 79 (7.5%) in men (p<0.001).

Conclusion

In Spain, despite the advances that have taken place in controlling disease activity and in treating osteoporosis, the incidence rate of HF increased in both male and female patients with RA.

Trends in osteoporotic hip fracture epidemiology over a 17-year period in a Spanish population: Alcorcón 1999-2015

Our aim was to analyze trends in osteoporotic hip fracture rates in a suburban health area over a long time period. We detected a steady decrease, especially in women, that could be explained by historical, administrative, lifestyle changes as well as by medical behavior.

PURPOSE

The purpose of this study was to analyze trends in osteoporotic hip fracture rates in a suburban health area over a long time period.

METHODS

This is an ecological retrospective study of all discharges occurring in the Alcorcón health area and registered in the minimum basic data set (MBDS). The incidence of osteoporotic hip fracture was calculated by age and sex strata over the last 17 years. General lineal models were used to analyze trends.

RESULTS

Between 1999 and 2015, 4271 osteoporotic hip fractures occurred in people over 45 (78% women; mean age 83). The annual osteoporotic hip fracture rate was 290/100,000 persons over 45 (women 428; men 134), or 767/100,000 persons over 65 (women 1087, men 364). The incidence of fractures decreased yearly by 3.6% (95% CI 2.8 to 4.5) in the 1999-2015 period (p < 0.001) and was more pronounced in women [3.9% (95% CI 3.0 to 4.8)] than in men [2.4% (95% CI 0.9 to 3.8)]. In people over 65 years, fracture incidence decreased yearly by 3.7% (95% CI 2.8 to 4.6; p < 0.001). Again, this was more pronounced in women [4% (95% CI 3.05 to 4.9)] than in men [2.4 (95% CI 0.8 to 3.9)] while the female/male ratio decreased from 4.45 in 1999 to 2.4 in 2015. These differences were similar for extracapsular and intracapsular fractures.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings suggest a downward trend in the incidence of hip fracture in Alcorcón, both in men and in women. Possible explanations are discussed, including the effectiveness of osteoporosis diagnosis and treatment campaigns over the last 20 years, and the so-called "cohort effect."