Perioperative Mortality Rate (POMR): A Global Indicator of Access to Safe Surgery and Anaesthesia

Risk-Adjustment of Perioperative Mortality Rate Measurement in a Low-Income Country

BACKGROUND

The health care systems in low-income countries have extremely limited capacity to treat surgical diseases. The perioperative mortality rate has been suggested as a key quality metric to guide the expansion of care, but there is little information on how to risk-adjust this outcome measure.

METHODS

We did a 42-month observational cohort study of surgical operations at a Ugandan secondary referral hospital. We examined factors associated with in-hospital 30-day perioperative mortality outcomes. The aim of the study was to suggest a suitable indicator metric for comparative health service research in low-income countries.

RESULTS

The 30-day perioperative mortality rate was 5.3 % (n = 381/7170). The adjusted odds ratios (95% confidence interval) of variables associated with mortality were as follows: procedure (P < .001; laparotomy 2.6 [1.6, 4.3], P < .001; cranial surgery 2.8 [1.6, 4.9], P < .001); American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) rating 3.1 (2.6, 3.6), P < .001; HIV serostatus (P < .001; positive 2.7 [1.5, 4.8], P < .001); procedure urgency (urgent/emergent) 1.7 (1.2, 2.3), P = .003; home district location (P = .015; distant referral 1.4 [1.0, 1.9], P = .027); and age decile 1.1 (1.0,1.2, P = .001). Laparotomy was the commonest procedure performed (n = 2361) and was associated with 56.3% (n = 216/381) of deaths.

CONCLUSIONS

Laparotomy had a strong independent association with mortality at a Ugandan secondary hospital. The laparotomy perioperative mortality rate may be a suitable outcome measure for comparative health service research in low-income countries.

Pediatric Perioperative Mortality in Southeastern (SE) Nigeria-A Multicenter, Prospective Study

BACKGROUND

The perioperative mortality rate is a key indicator of the quality of surgical services in low and middle-income countries (LMIC). Objective: To determine the perioperative mortality rate of pediatric surgical conditions and the predictive factors in Southeastern Nigeria. Methodology: A prospective, multicenter study of peri-operative mortalities occurring in children under 18 years in five tertiary hospitals in Southeastern Nigeria over nine months was conducted. All-cause and case-specific in-hospital peri-operative mortality rates, as well as predictive factors, were identified. The mortality rate was expressed as percentages with a 95% confidence interval. The data were analyzed using SPSS 26.

RESULTS

A total of 775 patients underwent anesthesia or surgery, with 28 deaths. The 30-day perioperative mortality rate was 3.61% (95% CI = 2.41- 5.18); 1.94% (95% CI = 1.09-3.17 within 24 hours, and 1.17% (95% CI = 0.91-2.91) from 24 hours to 30 days after the procedure. The mortality rate was 100% for gastroschisis and ruptured omphalocele, with overwhelming sepsis being the major cause of death (53.6%). Significant determinants of mortality were a higher ASA status (AOR)=13.944, 95% CI=1.509-128.851, p=0.020, sedation without ventilatory support (AOR)=15.295, 95% CI=3.304-70.800, p=0.001, and associated comorbidities (AOR)=65.448, 95% CI=11.244-380.962, p=0.001.

CONCLUSION

The pediatric peri-operative mortality rate in Southeastern Nigeria is high for gastroschisis. Associated comorbidities, higher ASA status, and sedation without ventilatory support were significant predictors ofmortality.

Perioperative mortality in low-, middle-, and high-income countries: Protocol for a multi-level meta-regression analysis

BACKGROUND

Surgery is an indispensable component of a functional healthcare system. To date there is limited information regarding how many people die during the perioperative period globally. This study describes a protocol for a systematic review and multilevel meta-regression to evaluate time trends regarding the odds of perioperative mortality among adults undergoing a bellwether surgical procedure while accounting for higher order clustering at the national level.

METHODS

Published studies reporting the number of perioperative deaths from bellwether surgical procedures among adults will be identified from MEDLINE, Embase, Cochrane CENTRAL, LILACS and Global Index Medicus. The primary outcome will be the rate of perioperative mortality across time and the secondary outcome will be investigating cause of death over time as a proportion of overall perioperative mortality. Two reviewers will independently conduct full text screening and extract the data. Disagreements will first be resolved via consensus. If consensus cannot be reached a third reviewer will be included to arbitrate. Due to human resource limitations, a risk of bias appraisal will not be conducted. From the included studies a multilevel meta-regression will be constructed to synthesize the results. This model will conceptualize patients as nested in studies which are in turn nested within countries while taking into account potential confounding variables at all levels.

DISCUSSION

The systematic review and multilevel meta-regression that will be conducted based on this protocol will provide synthesized global evidence regarding the trends of perioperative mortality. This eventual study may help policymakers and other key stakeholders with benchmarking surgical safety initiatives as well as identify key gaps in our current understanding of global perioperative mortality.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Systematic review registration: PROSPERO registration number 429040.

Disparities in perioperative mortality outcomes between First Nations and non-First Nations peoples in Australia: protocol for a systematic review and planned meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Health inequities persist among First Nations people living in developed countries. Surgical care is pivotal in addressing a significant portion of the global disease burden. Evidence regarding surgical outcomes among First Nations people in Australia is limited. The perioperative mortality rate (POMR) indicates timely access to safe surgery and predicts long-term survival after major surgery. This systematic review will examine POMR among First Nations and non-First Nations peoples in Australia.

METHODS

A systematic search strategy using MEDLINE, Embase, Emcare, Global Health, and Scopus will identify studies that include First Nations people and non-First Nations people who underwent a surgical intervention under anaesthesia in Australia. The primary focus will be on documenting perioperative mortality outcomes. Title and abstract screening and full-text review will be conducted by independent reviewers, followed by data extraction and bias assessment using the ROBINS-E tool. Meta-analysis will be considered if there is sufficient homogeneity between studies. The quality of cumulative evidence will be evaluated following the Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) criteria.

DISCUSSION

This protocol describes the comprehensive methodology for the proposed systematic review. Evaluating disparities in perioperative mortality rates between First Nations and non-First Nations people remains essential in shaping the discourse surrounding health equity, particularly in addressing the surgical burden of disease.

SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION

PROSPERO CRD42021258970.

Real time organ hypoperfusion detection using Indocyanine Green in a piglet model

BACKGROUND

Preserving sufficient oxygen supply to the tissue is fundamental for maintaining organ function. However, our ability to identify those at risk and promptly recognize tissue hypoperfusion during abdominal surgery is limited. To address this problem, we aimed to develop a new method of perfusion monitoring that can be used during surgical procedures and aid surgeons' decision-making.

METHODS

In this experimental porcine study, thirteen subjects were randomly assigned one organ of interest [stomach (n = 3), ascending colon (n = 3), rectum (n = 3), and spleen (n = 3)]. After baseline perfusion recordings, using high-frequency, low-dose bolus injections with weight-adjusted (0.008 mg/kg) ICG, organ-supplying arteries were manually and completely occluded leading to hypoperfusion of the target organ. Continuous organ perfusion monitoring was performed throughout the experimental conditions.

RESULTS

After manual occlusion of pre-selected organ-supplying arteries, occlusion of the peripheral arterial supply translated in an immediate decrease in oscillation signal in most organs (3/3 ventricle, 3/3 ascending colon, 3/3 rectum, 2/3 spleen). Occlusion of the central arterial supply resulted in a further decrease or complete disappearance of the oscillation curves in the ventricle (3/3), ascending colon (3/3), rectum (3/3), and spleen (1/3).

CONCLUSION

Continuous organ-perfusion monitoring using a high-frequency, low-dose ICG bolus regimen can detect organ hypoperfusion in real-time.

Machine Learning Predicts Unplanned Care Escalations for Post-Anesthesia Care Unit Patients during the Perioperative Period: A Single-Center Retrospective Study

BACKGROUND

 Despite low mortality for elective procedures in the United States and developed countries, some patients have unexpected care escalations (UCE) following post-anesthesia care unit (PACU) discharge. Studies indicate patient risk factors for UCE, but determining which factors are most important is unclear. Machine learning (ML) can predict clinical events. We hypothesized that ML could predict patient UCE after PACU discharge in surgical patients and identify specific risk factors.

METHODS

We conducted a single center, retrospective analysis of all patients undergoing non-cardiac surgery (elective and emergent). We collected data from pre-operative visits, intra-operative records, PACU admissions, and the rate of UCE. We trained a ML model with this data and tested the model on an independent data set to determine its efficacy. Finally, we evaluated the individual patient and clinical factors most likely to predict UCE risk.

RESULTS

Our study revealed that ML could predict UCE risk which was approximately 5% in both the training and testing groups. We were able to identify patient risk factors such as patient vital signs, emergent procedure, ASA Status, and non-surgical anesthesia time as significant variable. We plotted Shapley values for significant variables for each patient to help determine which of these variables had the greatest effect on UCE risk. Of note, the UCE risk factors identified frequently by ML were in alignment with anesthesiologist clinical practice and the current literature.

CONCLUSIONS

We used ML to analyze data from a single-center, retrospective cohort of non-cardiac surgical patients, some of whom had an UCE. ML assigned risk prediction for patients to have UCE and determined perioperative factors associated with increased risk. We advocate to use ML to augment anesthesiologist clinical decision-making, help decide proper disposition from the PACU, and ensure the safest possible care of our patients.

Development and validation of the Ex-Care BR model: a multicentre initiative for identifying Brazilian surgical patients at risk of 30-day in-hospital mortality

BACKGROUND

Surgical risk stratification is crucial for enhancing perioperative assistance and allocating resources efficiently. However, existing models may not capture the complexity of surgical care in Brazil. Using data from various healthcare settings nationwide, we developed a new risk model for 30-day in-hospital mortality (the Ex-Care BR model).

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study was conducted in 10 hospitals from different geographic regions in Brazil. Data were analysed using multilevel logistic regression models. Model performance was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), Brier score, and calibration plots. Derivation and validation cohorts were randomly assigned.

RESULTS

A total of 107,372 patients were included, and 30-day in-hospital mortality was 2.1% (n=2261). The final risk model comprised four predictors related to the patient and surgery (age, ASA physical status classification, surgical urgency, and surgical size), and the random effect related to hospitals. The model showed excellent discrimination (AUROC=0.93, 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.93-0.94), calibration, and overall performance (Brier score=0.017) in the derivation cohort (n=75,094). Similar results were observed in the validation cohort (n=32,278) (AUROC=0.93, 95% CI, 0.92-0.93).

CONCLUSIONS

The Ex-Care BR is the first model to consider regional and organisational peculiarities of the Brazilian surgical scene, in addition to patient and surgical factors. It is particularly useful for identifying high-risk surgical patients in situations demanding efficient allocation of limited resources. However, a thorough exploration of mortality variations among hospitals is essential for a comprehensive understanding of risk.

CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION

NCT05796024.

Global neonatal perioperative mortality: A systematic review and meta-analysis

STUDY OBJECTIVE

There are large differences in health care among countries. A higher perioperative mortality rate (POMR) in neonates than in older children and adults has been recognized worldwide. The aim of this study was to provide a systematic review of published 24-h and 30-day POMRs in neonates from 2011 to 2022 in countries with different Human Development Index (HDI) levels.

DESIGN AND SETTING

A systematic review with a meta-analysis of studies that reported 24-h and 30-day POMRs in neonates was performed. We searched the databases from January 2011 to July 30, 2022.

MEASUREMENTS

The POMRs (per 10,000 procedures under anesthesia) were analyzed according to country HDI. The HDI levels ranged from 0 to 1, representing the lowest and highest levels, respectively (very-high-HDI: ≥ 0.800, high-HDI: 0.700-0.799, medium-HDI: 0.550-0.699, and low-HDI: < 0.550). The magnitude of the POMRs by country HDI was studied using meta-analysis.

MAIN RESULTS

Eighteen studies from 45 countries were included. The 24-h (n = 96 deaths) and 30-day (n = 459 deaths) POMRs were analyzed from 33,729 anesthetic procedures. The odds ratios (ORs) of the 24-h POMR in low-HDI countries were higher than those in very-high- (OR 8.4, 95% CI 1.7-40.4; p = 0.008), high- (OR 7.3, 95% CI 2.2-24.4; p = 0.001) and medium-HDI countries (OR 7.7, 95% CI 3.1-18.7; p < 0.0001) but with no odds differences between very-high- and high-HDI countries (p = 0.879), very-high- and medium-HDI countries (p = 0.915) and high- and medium-HDI countries (p = 0.689). The odds of a 30-day POMR in low-HDI countries were higher than those in very-high-HDI countries (OR 6.9, 95% CI 1.9-24.6; p = 0.002) but not in high-HDI countries (OR 1.4, 95% CI 0.6-3.0; p = 0.396).

CONCLUSIONS

The review demonstrated very high global POMRs in a surgical population of neonates independent of the country HDI level. We identified differences in 24-h and 30-day POMRs between low-HDI countries and other countries with higher HDI levels.

Difference in early all-cause mortality among patients having hip arthroplasty a Swedish perioperative registry study 2013-2022

INTRODUCTION

Hip arthroplasty is a common orthopaedic procedure worldwide. There is an ongoing debate related to the fixation and anaesthesia impact on the 30-day mortality, particularly in the aging population with higher American Society of Anaesthesiology (ASA) Physical-Status.

AIM

To study the 30-day all-cause mortality in patients undergoing primary hip arthroplasty, with regards to the impact of age, ASA-class, anaesthesia techniques, indication for surgery and fixation techniques.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Perioperative data for primary hip arthroplasty procedures for osteoarthritis and hip fractures registered in the Swedish Perioperative Registry (SPOR) between 2013 and June 2022 were collected. Binary logistic regressions were performed to assess the impact of age, ASA-class, anaesthetic technique, indication for surgery and fixation on odds ratio for 30-day mortality in Sweden.

RESULTS

In total, 79,114 patients, 49,565 with osteoarthritis and 29,549 with hip fractures were included in the main study cohort. Mortality was significantly higher among hip fracture patients compared with osteoarthritis, cumulative 8.2% versus 0.1% at 30-days respectively (p < 0.001). Age above 80 years (OR3.7), ASA 3-5 (OR3.3) and surgery for hip fracture (OR 21.5) were associated with significantly higher odds ratio, while hybrid fixation was associated with a significantly lower odds ratio (OR0.4) of 30-day mortality. In the same model, for the subgroups of osteoarthritis and hip fracture, only age (OR 3.7) and ASA-class (OR 3.3) had significant impact, increasing the odds ratio for 30-day mortality. Hemi arthroplasty was commonly used among the hip fracture patients 20.453 (69.2%), and associated with a significantly higher odds ratio for all-cause 30-day mortality as compared to total hip arthroplasty when adjusting for age and ASA-class and fixation 2.3 (95%CI 1.9-2.3, p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

All-cause 30-day mortality associated with arthroplasty differed significantly between the two cohorts, hip fracture, and osteoarthritis (8.2% and 0.1% respectively) and mortality expectedly increased with age and higher ASA-class. Anaesthetic method and cement-fixation did not impact the odds ratio for all-cause 30-day mortality after adjustment for age and ASA-class.

Development and external validation of a novel score for predicting postoperative 30‑day mortality in tumor craniotomy patients: A cross‑sectional diagnostic study

The identification of patients with craniotomy at high risk for postoperative 30-day mortality may contribute to achieving targeted delivery of interventions. The present study aimed to develop a personalized nomogram and scoring system for predicting the risk of postoperative 30-day mortality in such patients. In this retrospective cross-sectional study, 18,642 patients with craniotomy were stratified into a training cohort (n=7,800; year of surgery, 2012-2013) and an external validation cohort (n=10,842; year of surgery, 2014-2015). The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) model was used to select the most important variables among the candidate variables. Furthermore, a stepwise logistic regression model was established to screen out the risk factors based on the predictors chosen by the LASSO model. The model and a nomogram were constructed. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) and calibration plot analysis were used to assess the model's discrimination ability and accuracy. The associated risk factors were categorized according to clinical cutoff points to create a scoring model for postoperative 30-day mortality. The total score was divided into four risk categories: Extremely high, high, intermediate and low risk. The postoperative 30-day mortality rates were 2.43 and 2.58% in the training and validation cohort, respectively. A simple nomogram and scoring system were developed for predicting the risk of postoperative 30-day mortality according to the white blood cell count; hematocrit and blood urea nitrogen levels; age range; functional health status; and incidence of disseminated cancer cells. The ROC AUC of the nomogram was 0.795 (95% CI: 0.764 to 0.826) in the training cohort and it was 0.738 (95% CI: 0.7091 to 0.7674) in the validation cohort. The calibration demonstrated a perfect fit between the predicted 30-day mortality risk and the observed 30-day mortality risk. Low, intermediate, high and extremely high risk statuses for 30-day mortality were associated with total scores of (-1.5 to -1), (-0.5 to 0.5), (1 to 2) and (2.5 to 9), respectively. A personalized nomogram and scoring system for predicting postoperative 30-day mortality in adult patients who underwent craniotomy were developed and validated, and individuals at high risk of 30-day mortality were able to be identified.

Perioperative mortality rate and its predictors after emergency laparatomy at Debre Markos comprehensive specialized hospital, Northwest Ethiopia: 2023: retrospective follow-up study

BACKGROUND

Emergency laparatomy is abdominal surgery associated with a high rate of mortality. There are few reports on rates and predictors of postoperative mortality, whereas disease related or time specific studies are limited. Understanding the rate and predictors of mortality in the first 30 days (perioperative period) is important for evidence based decision and counseling of patients. This study aimed to estimate the perioperative mortality rate and its predictors after emergency laparatomy at Debre Markos Comprehensive Specialized Hospital, Northwest Ethiopia, 2023.

METHODS

This was a Hospital-based retrospective follow-up study conducted at Debre Markos Comprehensive Specialized Hospital in Ethiopia among patients who had undergone emergency laparatomy between January 1, 2019 and December 31, 2022. Sample of 418 emergency laparatomy patients selected with simple random sampling technique were studied. The data were extracted from March 15, 2023 to April 1, 2023 using a data extraction tool, cleaned, and entered into Epi-Data software version 3.1 before being exported to STATA software version 14.1 for analysis. Predictor variables with P value < 0.05 in multivariable Cox regression were reported.

RESULTS

Data of 386 study participants (92.3% complete charts) were analyzed. The median survival time was 18 days [IQR: (14, 29)]. The overall perioperative mortality rate in the cohort during the 2978 person-days of observations was 25.5 per 1000 person-days of follow-up [95% CI: (20.4, 30.9))]. Preoperative need for vasopressor [AHR: 1.8 (95% CI: (1.11, 2.98))], admission to intensive care unit [AHR: 2.0 (95% CI: (1.23, 3.49))], longer than three days of symptoms [AHR: 2.2 (95% CI: (1.15, 4.02))] and preoperative sepsis [AHR: 1.8 (95% CI: (1.05, 3.17))] were identified statistically significant predictors of perioperative mortality after emergency laparatomy.

CONCLUSIONS

The perioperative mortality rate is high. Preoperative need for vasopressors, admission to intensive care unit, longer than three days of symptoms and preoperative sepsis were predictors of increased perioperative mortality rate.

Capnography-An Essential Monitor, Everywhere: A Narrative Review

Capnography is now recognized as an indispensable patient safety monitor. Evidence suggests that its use improves outcomes in operating rooms, intensive care units, and emergency departments, as well as in sedation suites, in postanesthesia recovery units, and on general postsurgical wards. Capnography can accurately and rapidly detect respiratory, circulatory, and metabolic derangements. In addition to being useful for diagnosing and managing esophageal intubation, capnography provides crucial information when used for monitoring airway patency and hypoventilation in patients without instrumented airways. Despite its ubiquitous use in high-income-country operating rooms, deaths from esophageal intubations continue to occur in these contexts due to incorrect use or interpretation of capnography. National and international society guidelines on airway management mandate capnography's use during intubations across all hospital areas, and recommend it when ventilation may be impaired, such as during procedural sedation. Nevertheless, capnography's use across high-income-country intensive care units, emergency departments, and postanesthesia recovery units remains inconsistent. While capnography is universally used in high-income-country operating rooms, it remains largely unavailable to anesthesia providers in low- and middle-income countries. This lack of access to capnography likely contributes to more frequent and serious airway events and higher rates of perioperative mortality in low- and middle-income countries. New capnography equipment, which overcomes cost and context barriers, has recently been developed. Increasing access to capnography in low- and middle-income countries must occur to improve patient outcomes and expand universal health care. It is time to extend capnography's safety benefits to all patients, everywhere.

Factors associated with 30-day mortality and morbidity in patients undergoing emergency colorectal surgery

BACKGROUND

The 30-day period following emergency colorectal surgery (ECRS) is associated with high mortality and morbidity. There is a lack of data assessing factors associated with outcomes of ECRS in the Saudi population.

OBJECTIVES

Assess factors associated with 30-day postoperative mortality and complications following ECRS.

DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study.

SETTING

Single tertiary care center, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Demographic characteristics (age, sex, diagnosis, American Society of Anesthesiologists classification, pre-operative septic state, smoking, and comorbidities), operative characteristics (urgency, diverting ostomy, and procedure performed), and postoperative characteristics (length of stay, 30-day mortality, intensive care unit [ICU] admission, ICU length of stay, surgical site infection [SSI], readmission, reoperation, and complications) were collected from electronic medical records. Univariate logistic regression was used to evaluate association with the outcome measures (30-day mortality and postoperative complications). Multivariate logistic regression was applied to evaluate independent variables.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE

Thirty-day postoperative mortality and morbidity.

SAMPLE SIZE

241 patients.

RESULTS

Among 241 patients, 145 (60.2%) were men, and 80 (33.2%) patients were between 50-64 years of age. The most common indication for surgery was malignancy 138 (57%). The overall complication rate was 26.6% and the 30-day mortality rate was 11.2%. Left hemicolectomy was the most commonly performed procedure, performed in 69 (28.6%) patients. Patients between the age of 65-74 had an increased odds of death within 30 days (OR 5.25 [95% CI 1.03-26.5]) on univariate analysis. Preoperative sepsis was associated with a fourfold increase in the likelihood of 30-day mortality (OR 4.44, 95% CI 1.21-16.24, P=.024) on multivariate analysis. The likelihood of hospital re-admission increased by fivefold in patients who developed a postoperative complication (OR 5.33, 95% CI 1.30-21.78, P=.02).

CONCLUSION

Preoperative sepsis was independently associated with 30-day mortality in patients undergoing ECRS, while the likelihood of hospital readmission increased in patients with postoperative complications. Expeditious control of sepsis in the emergency surgical setting by both surgical and medical interventions may reduce the likelihood of postoperative mortality. Establishing discharge protocols for postoperative ECRS patients is advocated.

LIMITATIONS

Retrospective design, small sample size, and single setting.

Association between preoperative serum sodium and postoperative 30-day mortality in adult patients with tumor craniotomy

BACKGROUND

Limited data exist regarding preoperative serum sodium (Na) and 30-day mortality in adult patients with tumor craniotomy. Therefore, this study investigates their relationship.

METHODS

A secondary retrospective analysis was performed using data from the ACS NSQIP database (2012-2015). The principal exposure was preoperative Na. The outcome measure was 30-day postoperative mortality. Binary logistic regression modeling was conducted to explore the link between them, and a generalized additive model and smooth curve fitting were applied to evaluate the potential association and its explicit curve shape. We also conducted sensitivity analyses and subgroup analyses.

RESULTS

A total of 17,844 patients (47.59% male) were included in our analysis. The mean preoperative Na was 138.63 ± 3.23 mmol/L. The 30-day mortality was 2.54% (455/17,844). After adjusting for covariates, we found that preoperative Na was negative associated with 30-day mortality. (OR = 0.967, 95% CI:0.941, 0.994). For patients with Na ≤ 140, each increase Na was related to a 7.1% decreased 30-day mortality (OR = 0.929, 95% CI:0.898, 0.961); for cases with Na > 140, each increased Na unit was related to a 8.8% increase 30-day mortality (OR = 1.088, 95% CI:1.019, 1.162). The sensitivity analysis and subgroup analysis indicated that the results were robust.

CONCLUSIONS

This study shows a positive and nonlinear association between preoperative Na and postoperative 30-day mortality in adult patients with tumor craniotomy. Appropriate preoperative Na management and maintenance of serum Na near the inflection point (140) may reduce 30-day mortality.

Big data in anaesthesia: a narrative, nonsystematic review

Data generation is growing with the use of 'anaesthesia information management systems' (AIMS), but the appropriate use of data for scientific purposes is often wasted by a lack of integration. This narrative review aims to describe the use of routinely collected data and its potential usefulness to improve the quality of care, first by defining the six levels of integration of electronic health records as proposed by the National Health Service (NHS) illustrated by examples in anaesthesia practice. Secondly, by explaining what measures can be taken to profit from those data on the micro-system level (for the patient), the meso-system (for the department and the hospital institution) and the macro-system (for healthcare and public health). We will next describe a homemade AIMS solution and the opportunities which result from his integration on the different levels and the research prospects implied. Opportunities outside of high-income countries will also be presented. All lead to the conclusion that a core dataset for peri-operative global research may facilitate a framework for the integration of large volumes of data from electronic health records. It will allow a constant re-evaluation of our practice as anaesthesiologists to offer the best care for patients. In this regard, the training of some anaesthesiologists in data science and artificial intelligence is of paramount importance. We must also take into account the ecological footprint of data centres as these are energy-consuming. It is essential to prepare for these changes and turn the speciality of anaesthesia, collaborating with data scientists, into a more prominent role of peri-operative medicine.

Perioperative mortality of emergency and elective surgical patients in a low-income country: a single institution experience

BACKGROUND

The perioperative mortality rate is an indicator of access to safe anesthesia and surgery. Studies showed higher perioperative mortality rates among low- and middle-income countries. But the specific causes and factors contributing to perioperative death have not been adequately studied in the Ethiopian context.

METHODS

This is a retrospective institutional study of the largest academic medical center in Ethiopia. Data of all patients who were admitted to surgical wards or intensive care and underwent surgical interventions were evaluated for perioperative mortality rate determination. All mortality cases were then evaluated in depth.

RESULTS

Of the 3295 patients evaluated, a total of 148 patients (4.5%) died within 30 days of surgery. By the 7th postoperative day, 69.5% of the perioperative mortality had already occurred. Septic shock contributed to 54.2% of deaths. Emergency surgery patients had more than a twofold higher mortality rate than elective surgery patients (p value < 0.001) and had a 2.6-fold higher rate of dying within 7 days of surgery (p value of 0.02). Patients with ASA performance status of 3 or more had a 1.7-fold higher rate of death within 72 h of surgery (p value of 0.015).

CONCLUSION

More than two thirds of patients died within 7 postoperative days. More emergency patients died than elective counterparts, and emergency cases had a higher rate of dying within 7 days of surgery. Poor ASA performance score was associated with earlier postoperative death. Further prospective multi-institutional studies are warranted to elucidate the factors that contribute to higher postoperative mortality in low-income country patients.

Anaesthesia-related mortality within 24 h following 9,391,669 anaesthetics in 10 cities in Hubei Province, China: a serial cross-sectional study

Background

The mortality risk related to anaesthesia in China remains poorly characterized. The objective of this study was to evaluate the anaesthesia-related mortality in terms of its incidence, changes, causes and preventability in Hubei, China, between 2017 and 2021 using a series of annual surveys.

Methods

We prospectively collected information on patient, surgical, anaesthesia, and hospital characteristics for 9,391,669 anaesthesia procedures performed between 2017 and 2021 in 10 cities within Hubei Province, China. Anaesthesia-related death was defined as death that deemed to be entirely or partially attributable to anaesthesia, occurring within 24 h following anaesthesia administration. All fatalities were scrutinized consecutively to determine their root causes and preventability. The incidence and patterns of anaesthesia-related deaths were analysed from 2017 to 2021. A mixed-effects model with a Poisson link function was fitted to evaluate the city-level annual changes in risk-adjusted incidence of anaesthesia-related deaths.

Findings

600 cases of anaesthetic deaths occurred from 2017 to 2021, yielding an incidence of 6.4 per 100,000 anaesthesia procedures [95% confidence interval (95% CI): 5.9, 6.9], and most were preventable (71.3%). There was a significant decrease from 2017 to 2021, in the incidences of anaesthesia-related death across all patients, those with American Society of Anaesthesiologists physical status (ASAPS) ≥III, and those who had general anaesthesia, with a percentage reduction of 57.6%, 59.1%, and 55.9%, respectively. The risk-adjusted annual changes indicated significant downward trends for the incidence of anaesthetic mortality from 2017 to 2018, 2019, 2020, and 2021. For instance, the risk-adjusted annual changes for the anaesthetic mortality incidence from 2017 to 2021 was -2.5 (95% CI: -1.4, -4.7).

Interpretation

In this large, comprehensive database study conducted in Central China, the anaesthesia-related death incidence was 6.4 per 100,000. Notably, the incidence of anaesthesia-related deaths decreased between 2017 and 2021. However, further in-depth analysis is needed to understand the extent to which these trends represent a change in patient safety.

Funding

Innovation and optimization of perioperative respiratory system management strategy (Hubei Technological Innovation Special Fund, 2019ACA167).

Incidence and predictors of perioperative mortality in a low-resource country, Ethiopia: a prospective follow-up study

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to assess the incidence and identify predictors of perioperative mortality among the adult age group at Tibebe Ghion Specialised Hospital.

DESIGN

A single-centre prospective follow-up study.

SETTING

A tertiary hospital in North West Ethiopia.

PARTICIPANTS

We enrolled 2530 participants who underwent surgery in the current study. All adults aged 18 and above were included except those with no telephone.

PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURES

The primary outcome was time to death measured in days from immediate postoperative time up to the 28th day following surgery.

RESULT

A total of 2530 surgical cases were followed for 67 145 person-days. There were 92 deaths, with an incidence rate of 1.37 (95% CI 1.11 to 1.68) deaths per 1000 person-day observations. Regional anaesthesia was significantly associated with lower postoperative mortality (adjusted hazard ratio (AHR) 0.18, 95% CI 0.05 to 0.62). Patients aged ≥65 years (AHR 3.04, 95% CI 1.65 to 5.75), American Society of Anesthesiologist (ASA) physical status III (AHR 2.41, 95% CI 1.1.13 to 5.16) and IV (AHR 2.74, 95% CI 1.08 to 6.92), emergency surgery (AHR 1.85, 95% CI 1.02 to 3.36) and preoperative oxygen saturation <95% (AHR 3.14, 95% CI 1.85 to 5.33) were significantly associated with a higher risk of postoperative mortality.

CONCLUSION

The postoperative mortality rate at Tibebe Ghion Specialised Hospital was high. Age ≥65, ASA physical status III and IV, emergency surgery, and preoperative oxygen saturation <95% were significant predictors of postoperative mortality. Patients with the identified predictors should be offered targeted treatment.

Perioperative Risk Assessment in Humanitarian Settings: A Scoping Review

BACKGROUND

No validated perioperative risk assessment models currently exist for use in humanitarian settings. To inform the development of a perioperative mortality risk assessment model applicable to humanitarian settings, we conducted a scoping review of the literature to identify reports that described perioperative risk assessment in surgical care in humanitarian settings and LMICs.

METHODS

We conducted a scoping review of the literature to identify records that described perioperative risk assessment in low-resource or humanitarian settings. Searches were conducted in databases including: PubMed, Embase, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature, Web of Science, World Health Organization Catalog, and Google Scholar.

RESULTS

Our search identified 1582 records. After title/abstract and full text screening, 50 reports remained eligible for analysis in quantitative and qualitative synthesis. These reports presented data from over 37 countries from public, NGO, and military facilities. Data reporting was highly inconsistent: fewer than half of reports presented the indication for surgery; less than 25% of reports presented data on injury severity or prehospital data. Most elements of perioperative risk models designed for high-resource settings (e.g., vital signs, laboratory data, and medical comorbidities) were unavailable.

CONCLUSION

At present, no perioperative mortality risk assessment model exists for use in humanitarian settings. Limitations in consistency and quality of data reporting are a primary barrier, however, can be addressed through data-driven identification of several key variables encompassed by a minimum dataset. The development of such a score is a critical step toward improving the quality of care provided to populations affected by conflict and protracted humanitarian crises.

Improving Surgical Research Capacity in Low- and Middle-Income Countries: Can Episodic Data Collection Reliably Estimate Perioperative Mortality?

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to empirically determine the optimal sample size needed to reliably estimate perioperative mortality (POMR) in different contexts.

SUMMARY BACKGROUND DATA

POMR is a key metric for measuring the quality and safety of surgical systems and will need to be tracked as surgical care is scaled up globally. Continuous collection of outcomes for all surgical cases is not the standard in high-income countries and may not be necessary in low- and middle-income countries.

METHODS

We created simulated datasets to determine the sampling frame needed to reach a given precision. We validated our findings using data collected at Mulago National Referral Hospital in Kampala, Uganda. We used these data to create a tool that can be used to determine the optimal sampling frame for a population based on POMR rate and target POMR improvement goal.

RESULTS

Precision improved as the sampling frame increased. However, as POMR increased, lower sampling percentages were needed to achieve a given precision. A total of 357 eligible cases were identified in the Mulago database with an overall POMR rate of 14%. Precision of ±10% was achieved with 34% sampling, and precision of ±25% was obtained at 9% sampling. Using simulated datasets, a tool was created to determine the minimum sample percentage needed to detect a given mortality improvement goal.

CONCLUSIONS

Reliably tracking POMR does not require continuous data collection. Data driven sampling strategies can be used to decrease the burden of data collection to track POMR in resource-constrained settings.

Association between preoperative hematocrit and postoperative 30-day mortality in adult patients with tumor craniotomy

Background

The purpose of this research was to synthesize the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database to investigate the link between preoperative hematocrit and postoperative 30-day mortality in patients with tumor craniotomy.

Methods

A secondary retrospective analysis of electronic medical records of 18,642 patients with tumor craniotomy between 2012 and 2015 was performed. The principal exposure was preoperative hematocrit. The outcome measure was postoperative 30-day mortality. We used the binary logistic regression model to explore the link between them and conducted a generalized additive model and smooth curve fitting to investigate the link and its explicit curve shape. We conducted sensitivity analyses by converting a continuous HCT into a categorical variable and calculated an E-value.

Results

A total of 18,202 patients (47.37% male participants) were included in our analysis. The postoperative 30-day mortality was 2.5% (455/18,202). After adjusting for covariates, we found that preoperative hematocrit was positively associated with postoperative 30-day mortality (OR = 0.945, 95% CI: 0.928, 0.963). A non-linear relationship was also discovered between them, with an inflection point at a hematocrit of 41.6. The effect sizes (OR) on the left and right sides of the inflection point were 0.918 (0.897, 0.939) and 1.045 (0.993, 1.099), respectively. The sensitivity analysis proved that our findings were robust. The subgroup analysis demonstrated that a weaker association between preoperative hematocrit and postoperative 30-day mortality was found for patients who did not use steroids for chronic conditions (OR = 0.963, 95% CI: 0.941-0.986), and a stronger association was discovered in participants who used steroids (OR = 0.914, 95% CI: 0.883-0.946). In addition, there were 3,841 (21.1%) cases in the anemic group (anemia is defined as a hematocrit (HCT) <36% in female participants and <39% in male participants). In the fully adjusted model, compared with the non-anemic group, patients in the anemic group had a 57.6% increased risk of postoperative 30-day mortality (OR = 1.576; 95% CI: 1.266, 1.961).

Conclusion

This study confirms that a positive and nonlinear association exists between preoperative hematocrit and postoperative 30-day mortality in adult patients undergoing tumor craniotomy. Preoperative hematocrit was significantly associated with postoperative 30-day mortality when the preoperative hematocrit was <41.6.

Association between preoperative platelet and 30-day postoperative mortality of adult patients undergoing craniotomy for brain tumors: data from the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database

BACKGROUND

Evidence regarding the relationship between preoperative platelet and 30-day postoperative mortality of intracranial tumor patients undergoing craniotomy is still limited. Therefore, the present research was conducted to explore the link of the platelet and 30-day postoperative mortality.

METHODS

Electronic medical records of 18,642 adult patients undergoing craniotomy for brain tumors from 2012 to 2015 in the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program, were subject to secondary retrospective analysis. A binary logistic regression model evaluated the independent association between preoperative platelet and 30-day postoperative mortality. A generalized additive model and smooth curve fitting was conducted to explore the exact shape of the curve between them. Additionally, We also conducted sensitivity analyses to test the robustness of the results, and performed subgroup analyses.

RESULTS

Eighteen thousand sixty-three patients were included in this study analysis. Of these, 47.49% were male. The mean preoperative platelet value was (244.12 ± 76.77) × 10⁹/L. The 30-day postoperative mortality of included participants was 2.5% (452/18,063). After adjusting covariates, the results showed that preoperative platelet was positively associated with 30-day postoperative mortality (OR = 0.999, 95%CI: 0.997, 1.000). There was also a nonlinear relationship between preoperative platelet and 30-day postoperative mortality, and the inflection point of the platelet was 236. The effect sizes (OR) on the right and left sides of the inflection point were 1.002 (1.000, 1.004) and 0.993 (0.990, 0.995), respectively. And sensitive analysis demonstrated the robustness of the results. Subgroup analysis showed a stronger association between preoperative platelet and 30-day postoperative mortality in non-emergency surgery patients when preoperative platelet value is less than 235 × 10⁹/L.

CONCLUSIONS

This research demonstrates a positive and non-linear relationship between preoperative platelet and 30-day postoperative mortality in U.S. adult brain tumor patients undergoing craniotomy. Preoperative platelet is strongly related to 30-day postoperative mortality when the platelet is less than 235 × 10⁹/L. Proper preoperative management of platelet and maintenance of platelet near inflection point (235) could reduce risk of 30-day postoperative mortality in these cases.

Perioperative mortality in Colombia: perspectives of the fourth indicator in The Lancet Commission on Global Surgery - Colombian Surgical Outcomes Study (ColSOS) - a protocol for a multicentre prospective cohort study

INTRODUCTION

Death following surgical procedures is a global health problem, accounting for 4.2 million deaths annually within the first 30 postoperative days. The fourth indicator of The Lancet Commission on Global Surgery is essential as it seeks to standardise postoperative mortality. Consequently, it helps identify the strengths and weaknesses of each country's healthcare system. Accurate information on this indicator is not available in Colombia, limiting the possibility of interventions applied to our population. We aim to describe the in-hospital perioperative mortality of the surgical procedures performed in Colombia. The data obtained will help formulate public policies, improving the quality of the surgical departments.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

An observational, analytical, multicentre prospective cohort study will be conducted throughout Colombia. Patients over 18 years of age who have undergone a surgical procedure, excluding radiological/endoscopic procedures, will be included. A sample size of 1353 patients has been projected to achieve significance in our primary objective; however, convenience sampling will be used, as we aim to include all possible patients. Data collection will be carried out prospectively for 1 week. Follow-up will continue until hospital discharge, death or a maximum of 30 inpatient days. The primary outcome is perioperative mortality. A descriptive analysis of the data will be performed, along with a case mix analysis of mortality by procedure-related, patient-related and hospital-related conditions ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The Fundación Cardioinfantil-Instituto de Cardiología Ethics Committee approved this study (No. 41-2021). The results are planned to be disseminated in three scenarios: the submission of an article for publication in a high-impact scientific journal and presentations at the Colombian Surgical Forum and the Congress of the American College of Surgeons.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT05147623.

Frameless robot-assisted stereotactic biopsy: an effective and minimally invasive technique for pediatric diffuse intrinsic pontine gliomas

PURPOSE

Diffuse intrinsic pontine gliomas (DIPGs) are prone to high surgical risks, and they could even lead to death due to their specific sites. To determine the value of frameless robot-assisted stereotactic biopsies of DIPGs, when compared it with microsurgical biopsies.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective study of 71 pediatric patients who underwent biopsies from January 2016 to January 2021. (i) group 1: microsurgical biopsies, and (ii) group 2: frameless robot-assisted stereotactic biopsies. Demographic information, neuroimaging characteristics, pathological diagnoses, operation time, postoperative intensive care unit (ICU) stay time, postoperative hospitalization time, complications, cost, and perioperative mortality rate (POMR) were collected for analyses.

RESULTS

32 Cases underwent microsurgical biopsies (group 1) and 39 cases underwent frameless robot-assisted stereotactic biopsies (group 2). All cases were accurately diagnosed after surgery. There was no significant difference in gender, age, symptom times and tumor volumes between the two groups (p > 0.05); operation time, postoperative ICU, stay time and postoperative hospitalization time were longer in group 1 than in group 2 (p < 0.001); the intraoperative bleeding volumes and cost were higher in group 1 than in group 2 (p < 0.001). Group 1 patients required more perioperative blood transfusion than group 2 (p = 0.001), and the new neurological impairments were more frequent in group 1 than in group 2 (p = 0.003). The POMR was 9.38% (3/32) in group 1 and 0 in group 2 (p = 0.087).

CONCLUSIONS

Frameless robot-assisted stereotactic biopsy was an effective and minimally invasive technique for pediatric DIPGs.

Factors associated with posoperative mortality in high perioperative risk patients. Cohort study

Introduction: Determining perioperative risk is part of the strategies implemented with the aim of reducing morbidity and mortality in the surgical population in the world. Although there is no established definition, high perioperative risk is associated with the group of patients with the highest disease burden. Objective: To determine postoperative mortality and its associated factors in patients with high perioperative risk. Methods: Analytical observational cohort study of high perioperative risk patients included in the database (n = 843) of the anesthesia program in a high complexity hospital in Colombia, between January 2011 and April 2018. Pre and postoperative variables were analyzed using uni and multivariate logistic regression per protocol. Overall and stratified mortality were estimated and factors associated with their occurrence were analyzed. Finally, survival was analyzed, the primary outcome being overall cohort mortality and stratified high cardiovascular risk mortality. Results: Cumulative 7-day mortality was 3.68% (95% CI 2.40-4.95%) and 30-day mortality was 10.08% (95% CI 8.05-12.12%). Perioperative mortality in the high cardiovascular risk group in the first 7 days was 3.60% (95% CI 1.13-6.07%) and 14.86% (95% CI 10.15-19.58%) at 30 days. The following preoperative variables were associated with mortality: chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, chronic kidney disease, limited functional class and abdominal aortic aneurysm. A strong association was observed between postoperative complications and a significant increase in mortality rate; the most relevant complications were cerebrovascular events and cardiogenic shock. Conclusions: In this group of high perioperative risk patients,  and in the subgroup of high cardiovascular risk patients, overall mortality at 7 and at 30 days was estimated to be above values reported in various countries. Mortality was significantly increased by the presence of preoperative factors and postoperative complications.

Gastrectomy mortality in Australia

BACKGROUND

Despite advances in medical management and endoscopic therapy, gastrectomy remains an important yet high-risk procedure for a range of benign and malignant upper gastrointestinal pathologies. No study has previously analysed Australian gastrectomy perioperative mortality rate (POMR). This retrospective, population-based cohort study was conducted to determine the Australian national gastrectomy POMR, allowing state-based and regional trends and outcomes to be assessed.

METHODS

Logistic regression models were compared using de-identified procedural data between 1 July 2005 and 30 June 2017 from the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare. Codes relating to total and subtotal gastrectomy contained in the Australian Classification of Health Interventions were used to extract patient data. Mortality rates were risk adjusted for age and gender. Temporal trends and differences between states/territories and regions were investigated.

RESULTS

The national average POMR throughout the study period was 2.1%. For subtotal gastrectomy, the national mean POMR was 1.1%, decreasing from 2.7% (2005) to 1.3% (2017). For total gastrectomy, the national mean POMR was 2.8%, decreasing from 3.3% (2005) to 1.7% (2017). POMR significantly reduced over time without variation between states or regions. Procedure volume steadily reduced in rural centres with a concomitant increase in metropolitan centres over time.

CONCLUSION

Pleasingly, the Australian gastrectomy POMR is favourable when compared to international cohorts. Improved outcomes were consistent between states and territories, and metropolitan and regional centres. Progressive metropolitan centralization of gastrectomy was demonstrated without evidence of improved outcomes.

Body Mass Index Has a Nonlinear Association With Postoperative 30-Day Mortality in Patients Undergoing Craniotomy for Tumors in Men: An Analysis of Data From the ACS NSQIP Database

BACKGROUND

The association between body mass index (BMI) and mortality is controversial. Thus, the purpose of our research was to survey the association between BMI and postoperative 30-day mortality in brain tumor patients undergoing craniotomy.

METHODS

This study analyzed data collected in a multicenter, cross-sectional study that consecutively and nonselectively collected data from a total of 18,642 patients undergoing craniotomy for tumors in the ACS NSQIP from 2012 to 2015. We constructed three linear and non-linear binomial logistic models (the inflection point was set at 18.5) to evaluate the association between BMI and postoperative 30-day mortality, respectively. We also conducted subgroup analyses. Additionally, we compared non-linear models with vs. without interaction with sex.

RESULTS

A total of 17,713 patients were included in this analysis. Of these, 47.38% were male. The postoperative 30-day mortality of the included cases was 2.39% (423/17,713), and the mean BMI was 28.41 ± 6.05 kg/m². The linear logistic models suggested that after adjusting for the covariates, BMI was not associated with postoperative 30-day mortality (OR=0.999; 95% CI: 0.981, 1.017). The non-linear binomial logistic models suggested a nonlinear relationship between BMI and postoperative 30-day mortality. When BMI was < 18.5, we observed a stronger negative association between them after adjusting for covariates; the OR and 95% CI were 0.719, 0.576-0.896. When BMI was > 18.5, the relationship between them was not significant. We also found that a one-unit decrease in BMI for male patients with BMI < 18.5 kg/m² was related to a 34.6% increase in the risk of postoperative 30-day mortality (OR=0.654, 95% CI (0.472, 0.907). There was no significant association between them in male patients with BMI > 18.5 kg/m² or female patients.

CONCLUSIONS

This study demonstrates a non-linear relationship between BMI and the risk of postoperative death. Preoperative underweight (BMI < 18.5 kg/m²) would increase the risk of postoperative death in male patients (> 18 years old) undergoing craniotomy for brain tumors. Appropriate nutritional management prior to craniotomy for brain tumors may reduce the risk of postoperative 30-day mortality in underweight men.

Surgical, Obstetric, and Anesthetic Mortality Measurement at a Ugandan Secondary Referral Hospital

BACKGROUND

The health care systems of low-income countries have severely limited capacity to treat surgical diseases and conditions. There is limited information about which hospital mortality outcomes are suitable metrics in these settings.

METHODS

We did a 1-year observational cohort study of patient admissions to the Surgery and the Obstetrics and Gynecology departments and of newborns delivered at a Ugandan secondary referral hospital. We examined the proportion of deaths captured by standardized metrics of mortality.

RESULTS

There were 17,015 admissions and 9612 deliveries. A total of 847 deaths were documented: 385 (45.5%) admission deaths and 462 (54.5%) perinatal deaths. Less than one-third of admission deaths occurred during or after an operation (n = 126/385, 32.7%). Trauma and maternal mortality combined with perioperative mortality produced 79.2% (n = 305/385) of admission deaths. Of 462 perinatal deaths, 412 (90.1%) were stillborn, and 50 (10.9%) were early neonatal deaths. The combined metrics of the trauma mortality rate, maternal mortality ratio, thirty-day perioperative mortality rate, and perinatal mortality rate captured 89.8% (n = 761/847) of all deaths documented at the hospital.

CONCLUSIONS

The combination of perinatal, maternal, trauma, and perioperative mortality metrics captured most deaths documented at a Ugandan referral hospital.

Impact of the Share 35 Policy on Perioperative Management and Mortality in Liver Transplantation Recipients

Background

The Share 35 policy was introduced in 2013 by the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network (OPTN) to increase opportunities of sicker patients to access liver transplantation. However, it has the disadvantage of higher MELD score associated with adverse postoperative transplant outcomes. Early data after implementation of the Share 35 policy showed significantly poorer post-transplantation survival in some UNOS regions. We aimed to analyze the impact of Share 35 on demographics of patients, perioperative management, and perioperative mortality.

Material/Methods

A retrospective analysis of data was performed from an institutional liver transplantation cohort from 1 January 2008 to 31 December 2017. Adult patients who underwent liver transplantation before 2013 were defined as the pre-Share 35 group and the other group was defined as the post-Share 35 group. The MELD score of each patient was calculated at the time of transplantation. Perioperative mortality was defined as death within 30 days after the operation.

Results

A total of 1596 patients underwent liver transplantation. Of those, 895 recipients underwent OLT in the pre-Share 35 era and 737 in the post-Share 35 era. The median MELD score was significantly higher in the post-Share 35 group (30 vs 26, P<0.001) and 45.7% of the post-Share 35 group had MELD scores ≥35. In intraoperative management, patients required significantly more blood component transfusion, intraoperative vasopressor, and fluid replacement. Veno-venous bypass (VVB) usage was significantly higher in the post-Share 35 era (47.2% vs 38.1%, P<0.001). In the subgroup of patients with MELD scores ≥35, the median waiting time was significantly shorter (18.5 vs 14.5 days, P=0.045). Overall perioperative mortality was not significantly difference between groups (P=0.435).

Conclusions

After implementation of the Share 35 policy, we performed liver transplantation in significantly higher medical acuity patients, which required more medical resources to obtain a result comparable to that of the pre-Share 35 era.

A correlation between anaesthesia-related cardiac arrest outcomes and country human development index: A narrative review

Studies have demonstrated gaps between developed and developing countries in the quality of surgical and anaesthesia care. The aim of this review was to provide a critical overview of documented outcomes from the 2010s of anaesthesia-related cardiac arrest events in countries with largely differing Human Development Indexes (HDIs). The HDI ranges from 0 to 1, representing the lowest and highest levels of development, respectively. Most related studies conducted between 2011 and 2020 showed low rates (from 0 to 215 per million anaesthetics) of anaesthesia-related mortality up to the 30th postoperative day in very high-HDI countries (HDI ≥ 0.800) and higher rates (from 0 to 915.4 per million anaesthetics) in high-HDI countries (HDI: 0.700-0.799). Low-HDI countries (HDI < 0.550) showed higher anaesthesia-related mortality rates, which were greater than 1500 per million anaesthetics. The anaesthesia-related mortality rates per quartile demonstrated a gap in the anaesthesia-related safety between very high- and high-HDI countries, and especially between very high- and low-HDI countries. Anaesthesia-related cardiac arrest showed similarly high survival proportions in very high-HDI countries (45.9% to 100%) and high-HDI countries (62.9% to 100%), while in a low-HDI country, the anaesthesia-related cardiac arrest survival was lower (22.2%). Our review demonstrates large gaps among countries with largely differing HDIs regarding anaesthesia-related cardiac arrest outcomes in the last decade. This finding highlights the need to improve patient safety care in low-HDI countries. Anaesthesia patient safety has improved in high-HDI countries, but there is still a persistent gap in the health care systems of these countries and those of very high-HDI countries. Our review also found a consistent improvement in anaesthesia patient safety in very high-HDI countries.

Assessment of Surgical Care Provided in National Health Services Hospitals in Mozambique: The Importance of Subnational Metrics in Global Surgery

INTRODUCTION

Surgery plays a critical role in sustainable healthcare systems. Validated metrics exist to guide implementation of surgical services, but low-income countries (LIC) struggle to report recommended metrics and this poses a critical barrier to addressing unmet need. We present a comprehensive national sample of surgical encounters from a LIC by assessing the National Health Services of Mozambique.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

A prospective cohort of all surgical encounters from Mozambique's National Health Service was gathered for all provinces between July and December 2015. Primary outcomes were timely access, provider densities for surgery, anesthesiology, and obstetrics (SAO) per 100,000 population, annualized surgical procedure volume per 100,000, and postoperative mortality (POMR). Secondary outcomes include operating room density and efficiency.

RESULTS

Fifty-four hospitals had surgical capacity in 11 provinces with 47,189 surgeries. 44.9% of Mozambique's population lives in Districts without access to surgical services. National SAO density was 1.2/100,000, ranging from 0.4/100,000 in Manica Province to 9.8/100,000 in Maputo City. Annualized national surgical case volume was 367 procedures/100,000 population, ranging from 180/100,000 in Zambezia Province to 1,897/100,000 in Maputo City. National POMR was 0.74% and ranged from 0.23% in Maputo Province to 1.78% in Niassa Province.

DISCUSSION

Surgical delivery in Mozambique falls short of international targets. Subnational deficiencies and variations between provinces pose targets for quality improvement in advancing national surgical plans. This serves as a template for LICs to follow in gathering surgical metrics for the WHO and the World Bank and offers short- and long-term targets for surgery as a component of health systems strengthening.

Adverse events during anaesthesia at an Ethiopian referral hospital: a prospective observational study

Introduction

incident reporting systems are widely utilised within healthcare to analyse adverse events and have been shown to reduce patient harm. With data to suggest high anaesthetic-related mortality in low and middle-income countries (LMICs), such systems could allow more accurate determination of rates and types of incidents and could improve patient safety.

Methods

this prospective observational study carried out over six-weeks in March to April 2019 in an Ethiopian tertiary referral hospital, included direct observations in the operating room and recording of any anaesthesia-related adverse events occurring during the perioperative period.

Results

fifty surgical cases were observed during weekday daytime hours. Sixteen anaesthesia-related adverse events were observed in 12 patients, including six elective cases and six emergencies, an adverse event rate of 32% (n=16), affecting 24% (n=12) of patients. Most incidents occurred in infants less than one-year-old and those between 11-20 years (31.3%; n=5 each) and those undergoing general anaesthesia (66.7%; n=8), particularly during the induction phase (50%; n=8), the most common event being prolonged desaturation (31.3%; n=5). Most events were considered to contribute a low level of harm (56.3%; n=9). There were no intra-operative mortalities.

Conclusion

this study presents evidence of a higher rate of adverse events during anaesthesia at a tertiary referral hospital in Ethiopia, than reported in current literature from LMICs. There is potential for large volume data to be produced and learnt from with a reporting system in place in this setting. The most common event was desaturation detected by pulse oximetry, particularly in paediatric surgery.

Perioperative mortality in children in a tertiary teaching hospital in Nigeria: a prospective study

Background

Perioperative mortality is one of the tools that can help to assess the adequacy of healthcare delivery in a nation. This audit was conducted to determine the 24-hour, 7-day and 30-day perioperative mortality rates and the predictors of mortality in a pediatric surgical cohort.

Methods

This was a prospective study of children whose ages ranged from a few hours to 15 years and who were operated on between May 2019 and April 2020. The primary outcome was to determine the incidence of in-hospital perioperative mortality.

Results

A total of 530 procedures were done in 502 children. Their ages ranged from a few hours to 15 years with a median of 36 months. The 24-hour, 7-day and 30-day mortality rates were 113.2 per 10 000 procedures [95% confidence interval (CI) =40 to 210], 207.6 per 10 000 procedures (95% CI=110 to 320) and 320.8 per 10 000 procedures (95% CI=190 to 470), respectively. Congenital anomalies complicated by postoperative sepsis contributed to death in the majority of cases. The predictors of mortality were neonatal age group [adjusted odds ratio (AOR)=19.92, 95% CI=2.32 to 170.37, p=0.006], higher American Society of Anesthesiologists Physical Status III and above (AOR=21.6, 95% CI=3.05 to 152.91, p=0.002), emergency surgery (AOR=17.1, 95% CI=5.21 to 60.27, p=0.001), congenital anomalies (AOR=12.7, 95% CI=3.37 to 47.52, p=0.001), and multiple surgical procedures (AOR=9.7, 95% CI=2.79 to 33.54, p=0.001).

Conclusion

Perioperative mortality remains high in our institution.

Surgical service monitoring and quality control systems at district hospitals in Malawi, Tanzania and Zambia: a mixed-methods study

BACKGROUND

In low-income and middle-income countries, an estimated one in three clinical adverse events happens in non-complex situations and 83% are preventable. Poor quality of care also leads to inefficient use of human, material and financial resources for health. Improving outcomes and mitigating the risk of adverse events require effective monitoring and quality control systems.

AIM

To assess the state of surgical monitoring and quality control systems at district hospitals (DHs) in Malawi, Tanzania and Zambia.

METHODS

A mixed-methods cross-sectional study of 75 DHs: Malawi (22), Tanzania (30) and Zambia (23). This included a questionnaire, interviews and visual inspection of operating theatre (OT) registers. Data were collected on monitoring and quality systems for surgical activity, processes and outcomes, as well as perceived barriers.

RESULTS

53% (n=40/75) of DHs use more than one OT register to record surgical operations. With the exception of standardised printed OT registers in Zambia, the register format (often handwritten books) and type of data collected varied between DHs. Monthly reports were seldom analysed by surgical teams. Less than 30% of all surveyed DHs used surgical safety checklists (n=22/75), and <15% (n=11/75) performed surgical audits. 73% (n=22/30) of DHs in Tanzania and less than half of DHs in Malawi (n=11/22) and Zambia (n=10/23) conducted surgical case reviews. Reports of surgical morbidity and mortality were compiled in 65% (n=15/23) of Zambian DHs, and in less than one-third of DHs in Tanzania (n=9/30) and Malawi (n=4/22). Reported barriers to monitoring and quality systems included an absence of formalised guidelines, continuous training opportunities as well as inadequate accountability mechanisms.

CONCLUSIONS

Surgical monitoring and quality control systems were not standard among sampled DHs. Improvements are needed in standardisation of quality measures used; and in ensuring data completeness, analysis and utilisation for improving patient outcomes.

Emergency Surgery in the Elderly: Could Laparoscopy Be Useful in Frailty? A Single-Center Prospective 2-Year Follow-Up in 120 Consecutive Patients

Background: the general population is aging across the world. Therefore, even surgical interventions in the elderly—in particular those involving emergency surgical admissions—are becoming more frequent. The elderly population is often frail (in multiple physiological systems, this is often defined as age-related cumulative decline). This study involved a 2-year follow-up evaluation of frail elderly patients treated with urgent surgical intervention at Santa Maria Regina della Misericordia Hospital, General Surgery Department, in Adria (Italy). Method: a prospective, single-center, 2-year follow-up study of 120 patients >65 years old, treated at our department for surgical abdominal emergencies. We considered co-morbidities (ASA—American Society of Anesthesiologists Physical Status Classification System—score), type of surgery (laparoscopy, laparotomy or converted), frailty score, mortality, and complications at 30 days and at 2 years. Conclusions: 70 (58.4%) patients had laparoscopy, 49 (40.8) had laparotomy, and in 1 (0.8%) case, surgery was converted from laparoscopy to laparotomy. Mortality strictly depends on the type of surgery (laparotomy vs. laparoscopy), complications during recovery, and a lower Fried frailty criteria score, on average. The long-term follow-up can be a useful tool to highlight a safer surgical approach, such as laparoscopy, in frail elderly patients. We consider the laparoscopic approach feasible in emergency situations, with similar or better outcomes than laparotomy, especially in frail elderly patients.

Estimated glomerular filtration rate and postoperative mortality in patients undergoing non-cardiac and non-neuron surgery: a single-center retrospective study

Background

There is limited evidence to clarify the specific relationship between preoperative estimated glomerular filtration rate (preop-eGFR) and postoperative 30-day mortality in Asian patients undergoing non-cardiac and non-neuron surgery. We aimed to investigate details of this relationship.

Methods

We reanalyzed a retrospective analysis of the clinical records of 90,785 surgical patients at the Singapore General Hospital from January 1, 2012 to October 31, 2016. The main outcome was postoperative 30-day mortality.

Results

The average age of these recruited patients was 53.96 ± 16.88 years, of which approximately 51.64% were female. The mean of preop-eGFR distribution was 84.45 ± 38.56 mL/min/1.73 m². Multivariate logistic regression analysis indicated that preop-eGFR was independently associated with 30-day mortality (adjusted odds ratio: 0.992; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.990–0.995; P < 0.001). A U-shaped relationship was detected between preop-eGFR and 30-day mortality with an inflection point of 98.688 (P for log likelihood ratio test < 0.001). The effect sizes and confidence intervals on the right and left sides of the inflection point were 1.013 (1.007 to 1.019) [P < 0.0001] and 0.984 (0.981 to 0.987) [P < 0.0001], respectively. Preoperative comorbidities such as congestive heart failure (CHF), type 1 diabetes, ischemic heart disease (IHD), and anemia were associated with the odds ratio of preop-eGFR to 30-day mortality (interaction P < 0.05).

Discussion

The relationship between preop-eGFR and 30-day mortality is U-shaped. The recommended preop-eGFR at which the rate of the 30-day mortality was lowest was 98.688 mL/min/1.73 m².

Bellwether Procedures for Monitoring Subnational Variation of All-cause Perioperative Mortality in Brazil

BACKGROUND

All-cause perioperative mortality rate (POMR) is a commonly reported metric to assess surgical quality. Benchmarking POMR remains difficult due to differences in surgical volume and case mix combined with the burden of reporting and leveraging this complex and high-volume data. We seek to determine whether the pooled and individual procedure POMR of each bellwether (cesarean section, laparotomy, management of open fracture) correlate with state-level all-cause POMR in the interest of identifying benchmark procedures that can be used to make standardized regional comparisons of surgical quality.

METHODS

The Brazilian National Healthcare Database (DATASUS) was queried to identify unadjusted all-cause POMR for all patient admissions among public hospitals in Brazil in 2018. Bellwether procedures were identified as any procedure involving laparotomy, cesarean section, or treatment of open long bone fracture and then classified as emergent or elective. The pooled POMR of all bellwether procedures as well as for each individual bellwether procedure was compared with the all-cause POMR in each of the 26 states, and one federal district and correlations were calculated. Funnel plots were used to compare surgical volume to perioperative mortality for each bellwether procedure.

RESULTS

4,756,642 surgical procedures were reported to DATASUS in 2018: 237,727 emergent procedures requiring laparotomy, 852,821 emergent cesarean sections, and 210,657 open, long bone fracture repairs. Pooled perioperative mortality for all of the bellwether procedures was correlated with all-procedure POMR among states (r = 0.77, p < 0.001). POMR for emergency procedures (2.4%) correlated with the all-procedure (emergent and elective) POMR (1.6%, r = 0.93, p < .001), while POMR for elective procedures (0.4%) did not (p = .247). POMR for emergency laparotomy (4.4%) correlated with all-procedure POMR (1.6%, r = 0.52, p = .005), as did the POMR for open, long bone fractures (0.8%, r = 0.61, p < .001). POMR for emergency cesarean section (0.05%) did not correlate with all-procedure POMR (p = 0.400). There was a correlation between surgical volume and emergency laparotomy POMR (r = - 0.53, p = .004), but not for emergency cesarean section or open, long bone fractures POMR.

CONCLUSION

Procedure-specific POMR for laparotomy and open long bone fracture correlates modestly with all-procedure POMR among Brazilian states which is primarily driven by emergency procedure POMR. Selective reporting of emergency laparotomy and open fracture POMR may be a useful surrogate to guide subnational surgical policy decisions.

The Effect of Conflict on Obstetric and Non-Obstetric Surgical Needs and Operative Mortality in Fragile States

BACKGROUND

Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) provides surgical care in fragile states, which are more vulnerable to conflict. The primary objective of this study was to compare the indications for operative intervention in surgical projects in fragile states during periods of active conflict (CON) and non-conflict (NON-CON). In addition, risk factors for non-obstetric and obstetric operative mortality were identified.

METHODS

This was a retrospective analysis of MSF surgical projects in fragile states January 1, 2008-December 31, 2017. Variables considered in the analysis include age, gender, American Society of Anesthesiology physical status, emergency status, re-intervention status, indication for surgical intervention, and conflict/non-conflict time period.

RESULTS

There were 30 surgical projects in 13 fragile states with 87,968 surgical interventions in 68,667 patients. Obstetric needs were the most common indication for surgical intervention (n = 28,060, 31.9%) but were more common during NON-CON (n = 23,142, 35.7%) compared to CON periods (n = 4,918, 21.2%, p < 0.001). Trauma was more common during CON (42.0%) compared to NON-CON (23.0%) periods (p < 0.001). Non-obstetric operative mortality was similar during CON (0.2%) compared to NON-CON (0.2%, p = 0.920), but obstetric operative mortality was higher (0.5%) during CON compared to NON-CON (0.2%, p < 0.001) periods. Risk factors for obstetric and non-obstetric mortality included age ≥ 30 years, ASA greater than 1, and emergency intervention.

CONCLUSION

Humanitarian surgeons working in fragile states should be prepared to treat a range of surgical needs including trauma and obstetrics during conflict and non-conflict periods. The mortality in obstetric patients was higher during conflict periods, and further research to understand ways to protect this vulnerable group is needed.

Addressing priorities for surgical research in Africa: implementation of a multicentre cloud-based peri-operative registry in Ethiopia

In resource‐constrained settings, where inequalities in access to and quality of surgical care results in excess mortality, peri‐operative care registries are uncommon. A south‐south collaboration supported the implementation of a context specific, clinician‐led, multicentre real‐time peri‐operative registry in Ethiopia. Peri‐operative information, including the Ethiopian Ministry of Health’s national ‘Saving Lives through Safe Surgery initiative’, was linked to real‐time dashboards, providing clinicians and administrators with information on service utilisation, surgical access, national surgical key performance indicators and measures of quality of care. We recruited four hospitals representing 285 in‐patient beds from the Amhara and Southern Nations Nationalities and Peoples regions and Addis Ababa city, and reported on 1748 consecutive surgical cases from April 2019 to April 2020. Key performance indicators included: compliance with the World Health Organization’s Surgical Safety Checklist in 1595 (92.1%) surgical cases; adverse events during anaesthesia in 33 (3.1%) cases; and surgical site infections in 21 (2.0%) patients. This collaboration has successfully implemented a multicentre digital surgical registry that can enable measurement of key performance indicators for surgery and evaluation of peri‐operative outcomes. The peri‐operative registry is currently being rolled out across the Amhara region and Addis Ababa city administration. It will provide continuous granular healthcare information necessary to empower clinicians to drive context‐specific priorities for service improvement and research, in collaboration with national stakeholders and international research consortiums.

Preoperative anemia and surgical outcomes following laparotomy in a resource-limited setting

INTRODUCTION

Anemia is a common and potentially modifiable condition in sub-Saharan Africa. We sought to determine the role of preoperative anemia on post laparotomy abdominal complications.

METHODS

We conducted a six-month prospective, observational study of patients age >12 years following laparotomy at a tertiary hospital in Malawi. The outcome was the occurrence of abdominal complications. Poisson regression analyses estimated the risk of abdominal complications in patients with moderate/severe anemia.

RESULTS

Of 280 patients, most were male (76.4%) with median age of 35 years (IQR 24-50). Abdominal complications developed in 34 patients (15.2%). Of the 224 patients with known preoperative hemoglobin 54 (20.7%) were moderately or severely anemic at the time of surgery. Patients with moderate-to-severe anemia had an increased risk of abdominal complications (RR 4.44, 95% CI 2.0-9.6).

CONCLUSION

Anemia is a common but modifiable comorbidity among laparotomy patients and independently increases the risk of abdominal complications.

Perioperative mortality in older patients: a systematic review with a meta-regression analysis and meta-analysis of observational studies

STUDY OBJECTIVE

Older patients have a higher probability of developing major complications during the perioperative period than other adult patients. Perioperative mortality depends on not only on a patient condition but also on the quality of perioperative care provided. We tested the hypothesis that the perioperative mortality rate among older patients has decreased over time and is related to a country's Human Development Index (HDI) status.

DESIGN

A systematic review with a meta-regression and meta-analysis of observational studies that reported perioperative mortality rates in patients aged ≥60 years was performed. We searched the PubMed, EMBASE, LILACS and SciELO databases from inception to December 30, 2019.

SETTING

Mortality rates up to the seventh postoperative day were evaluated.

MEASUREMENTS

We evaluated the quality of the included studies. Perioperative mortality rates were analysed by time, country HDI status and baseline American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) physical status using meta-regression. Perioperative mortality and ASA status were analysed in low- and high-HDI countries during two time periods using proportion meta-analysis.

MAIN RESULTS

We included 25 studies, which reported 4,412,100 anaesthesia procedures and 3568 perioperative deaths from 12 countries. Perioperative mortality rates in high-HDI countries decreased over time (P = 0.042). When comparing pre-1990 to 1990-2019, in high-HDI countries, the perioperative mortality rates per 10,000 anaesthesia procedures decreased 7.8-fold from 100.85 (95% CI 43.36 to 181.72) in pre-1990 to 12.98 (95% CI 6.47 to 21.70) in 1990-2019 (P < 0.0001). There were no studies from low-HDI countries pre-1990. In the period from 1990 to 2019, perioperative mortality rates did not differ between low- and high-HDI countries (P = 0.395) but the limited number of patients in low-HDI countries impaired the result. Perioperative mortality rates increased with increasing ASA status (P < 0.0001). There were more ASA III-V patients in high-HDI countries than in low-HDI countries (P < 0.0001), and the perioperative mortality rate increased 24-fold in ASA III-V patients compared with ASA I-II patients (P < 0.0001).

CONCLUSION

The perioperative mortality rates in older patients have declined over the past 60 years in high-DHI countries, highlighting that perioperative safety in this population is increasing in these countries. Since data prior to 1990 were lacking in low-HDI countries, the evolution of their mortality rates could not be analysed. The perioperative mortality rate was similar in low- and high-HDI countries in the post-1990 period, but the low number of patients in the low-HDI countries does not allow a definitive conclusion.

Postoperative Complications and Risk of Mortality after Laparotomy in a Resource-Limited Setting

BACKGROUND

Despite increases in surgical capacity in Malawi, minimal data exist on postoperative complications. Identifying surgical management gaps and targeting quality improvement requires detailed, longitudinal complications, and outcome data that assess surgical safety and efficacy.

METHODS

We conducted a 6-mo prospective, observational study of patients >12 y after laparotomy at a tertiary hospital in Lilongwe, Malawi. Outcomes included postoperative complications and mortality. The seniormost rounding physician determined complication diagnoses. Bivariate and Poisson regression analyses identified predictors of mortality.

RESULTS

Only patients undergoing emergent laparotomy (77.8%) died before discharge, so analysis excluded elective cases. Of 189 patients included, the median age was 33.5 y (IQR 22-50.5), 22 (12.2%) had prior abdominal surgery, and 11 (12.1%) were human immunodeficiency virus-positive. Gastrointestinal perforation was the most common diagnosis (35.5%). The most common procedures were primary gastrointestinal repair (24.9%), diverting ostomy (21.2%), and bowel resection with anastomosis (16.4%). Overall postoperative mortality was 14.8%. Intra-abdominal complication occurred in 17 (9.0%) patients, of whom 8 (47.1%) died. Older age (RR 1.05, 95% CI 1.02-1.08, P < 0.001) and intra-abdominal complication (RR 2.88, 95% CI 1.28-6.46, P = 0.01) increased the relative risk of mortality. Preoperative diagnosis, surgical intervention type, and symptom-to-surgery time did not increase the relative risk of mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

The incidence of complications and mortality after laparotomy at a large referral hospital in Malawi is high. Older age and intra-abdominal complications increase the risk of death. Strategies to improve operative mortality in Malawi should prioritize postoperative surveillance and management and continued outcomes reporting.

Perioperative and anesthesia-related cardiac arrest and mortality rates in Brazil: A systematic review and proportion meta-analysis

INTRODUCTION

Studies have shown that both perioperative and anesthesia-related cardiac arrest (CA) and mortality rates are much higher in developing countries than in developed countries. This review aimed to compare the rates of perioperative and anesthesia-related CA and mortality during 2 time periods in Brazil.

METHODS

A systematic review with meta-analysis of full-text Brazilian observational studies was conducted by searching the Medline, EMBASE, LILACS and SciELO databases up to January 29, 2020. The primary outcomes were perioperative CA and mortality rates and the secondary outcomes included anesthesia-related CA and mortality events rates up to 48 postoperative hours.

RESULTS

Eleven studies including 719,273 anesthetic procedures, 962 perioperative CAs, 134 anesthesia-related CAs, 1,239 perioperative deaths and 29 anesthesia-related deaths were included. The event rates were evaluated in 2 time periods: pre-1990 and 1990-2020. Perioperative CA rates (per 10,000 anesthetics) decreased from 39.87 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 34.60-45.50) before 1990 to 17.61 (95% CI: 9.21-28.68) in 1990-2020 (P < 0.0001), while the perioperative mortality rate did not alter (from 19.25 [95% CI: 15.64-23.24] pre-1990 to 25.40 [95% CI: 13.01-41.86] in 1990-2020; P = 0.1984). Simultaneously, the anesthesia-related CA rate decreased from 14.39 (95% CI: 11.29-17.86) to 3.90 (95% CI: 2.93-5.01; P < 0.0001), while there was no significant difference in the anesthesia-related mortality rate (from 1.75 [95% CI: 0.76-3.11] to 0.67 [95% CI: 0.09-1.66; P = 0.5404).

CONCLUSIONS

This review demonstrates an important reduction in the perioperative CA rate over time in Brazil, with a large and consistent decrease in the anesthesia-related CA rate; however, there were no significant differences in perioperative and anesthesia-related mortality rates between the assessed time periods.

Development of a Clinical Prediction Model for In-hospital Mortality from the South African Cohort of the African Surgical Outcomes Study

BACKGROUND

Data on the factors that influence mortality after surgery in South Africa are scarce, and neither these data nor data on risk-adjusted in-hospital mortality after surgery are routinely collected. Predictors related to the context or setting of surgical care delivery may also provide insight into variation in practice. Variation must be addressed when planning for improvement of risk-adjusted outcomes. Our objective was to identify the factors predicting in-hospital mortality after surgery in South Africa from available data.

METHODS

A multivariable logistic regression model was developed to identify predictors of 30-day in-hospital mortality in surgical patients in South Africa. Data from the South African contribution to the African Surgical Outcomes Study were used and included 3800 cases from 51 hospitals. A forward stepwise regression technique was then employed to select for possible predictors prior to model specification. Model performance was evaluated by assessing calibration and discrimination. The South African Surgical Outcomes Study cohort was used to validate the model.

RESULTS

Variables found to predict 30-day in-hospital mortality were age, American Society of Anesthesiologists Physical Status category, urgent or emergent surgery, major surgery, and gastrointestinal-, head and neck-, thoracic- and neurosurgery. The area under the receiver operating curve or c-statistic was 0.859 (95% confidence interval: 0.827-0.892) for the full model. Calibration, as assessed using a calibration plot, was acceptable. Performance was similar in the validation cohort as compared to the derivation cohort.

CONCLUSION

The prediction model did not include factors that can explain how the context of care influences post-operative mortality in South Africa. It does, however, provide a basis for reporting risk-adjusted perioperative mortality rate in the future, and identifies the types of surgery to be prioritised in quality improvement projects at a local or national level.