Bayesian inference of agent-based models: a tool for studying kidney branching morphogenesis

Calibration of stochastic, agent-based neuron growth models with approximate Bayesian computation

Understanding how genetically encoded rules drive and guide complex neuronal growth processes is essential to comprehending the brain's architecture, and agent-based models (ABMs) offer a powerful simulation approach to further develop this understanding. However, accurately calibrating these models remains a challenge. Here, we present a novel application of Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) to address this issue. ABMs are based on parametrized stochastic rules that describe the time evolution of small components-the so-called agents-discretizing the system, leading to stochastic simulations that require appropriate treatment. Mathematically, the calibration defines a stochastic inverse problem. We propose to address it in a Bayesian setting using ABC. We facilitate the repeated comparison between data and simulations by quantifying the morphological information of single neurons with so-called morphometrics and resort to statistical distances to measure discrepancies between populations thereof. We conduct experiments on synthetic as well as experimental data. We find that ABC utilizing Sequential Monte Carlo sampling and the Wasserstein distance finds accurate posterior parameter distributions for representative ABMs. We further demonstrate that these ABMs capture specific features of pyramidal cells of the hippocampus (CA1). Overall, this work establishes a robust framework for calibrating agent-based neuronal growth models and opens the door for future investigations using Bayesian techniques for model building, verification, and adequacy assessment.

Calibration of agent based models for monophasic and biphasic tumour growth using approximate Bayesian computation

Agent-based models (ABMs) are readily used to capture the stochasticity in tumour evolution; however, these models are often challenging to validate with experimental measurements due to model complexity. The Voronoi cell-based model (VCBM) is an off-lattice agent-based model that captures individual cell shapes using a Voronoi tessellation and mimics the evolution of cancer cell proliferation and movement. Evidence suggests tumours can exhibit biphasic growth in vivo. To account for this phenomena, we extend the VCBM to capture the existence of two distinct growth phases. Prior work primarily focused on point estimation for the parameters without consideration of estimating uncertainty. In this paper, approximate Bayesian computation is employed to calibrate the model to in vivo measurements of breast, ovarian and pancreatic cancer. Our approach involves estimating the distribution of parameters that govern cancer cell proliferation and recovering outputs that match the experimental data. Our results show that the VCBM, and its biphasic extension, provides insight into tumour growth and quantifies uncertainty in the switching time between the two phases of the biphasic growth model. We find this approach enables precise estimates for the time taken for a daughter cell to become a mature cell. This allows us to propose future refinements to the model to improve accuracy, whilst also making conclusions about the differences in cancer cell characteristics.

A hybrid physics-based and data-driven framework for cellular biological systems: Application to the morphogenesis of organoids

How cells orchestrate their cellular functions remains a crucial question to unravel how they organize in different patterns. We present a framework based on artificial intelligence to advance the understanding of how cell functions are coordinated spatially and temporally in biological systems. It consists of a hybrid physics-based model that integrates both mechanical interactions and cell functions with a data-driven model that regulates the cellular decision-making process through a deep learning algorithm trained on image data metrics. To illustrate our approach, we used data from 3D cultures of murine pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma cells (PDAC) grown in Matrigel as tumor organoids. Our approach allowed us to find the underlying principles through which cells activate different cell processes to self-organize in different patterns according to the specific microenvironmental conditions. The framework proposed here expands the tools for simulating biological systems at the cellular level, providing a novel perspective to unravel morphogenetic patterns.

The developing murine kidney actively negotiates geometric packing conflicts to avoid defects

The physiological functions of several organs rely on branched epithelial tubule networks bearing specialized structures for secretion, gas exchange, or filtration. Little is known about conflicts in development between building enough tubules for adequate function and geometric constraints imposed by organ size. We show that the mouse embryonic kidney epithelium negotiates a physical packing conflict between increasing tubule tip numbers through branching and limited organ surface area. Through imaging of whole kidney explants, combined with computational and soft material modeling of tubule families, we identify six possible geometric packing phases, including two defective ones. Experiments in explants show that a radially oriented tension on tubule families is necessary and sufficient for them to switch to a vertical packing arrangement that increases surface tip density while avoiding defects. These results reveal developmental contingencies in response to physical limitations and create a framework for classifying congenital kidney defects.

Profile likelihood-based parameter and predictive interval analysis guides model choice for ecological population dynamics

Calibrating mathematical models to describe ecological data provides important insight via parameter estimation that is not possible from analysing data alone. When we undertake a mathematical modelling study of ecological or biological data, we must deal with the trade-off between data availability and model complexity. Dealing with the nexus between data availability and model complexity is an ongoing challenge in mathematical modelling, particularly in mathematical biology and mathematical ecology where data collection is often not standardised, and more broad questions about model selection remain relatively open. Therefore, choosing an appropriate model almost always requires case-by-case consideration. In this work we present a straightforward approach to quantitatively explore this trade-off using a case study exploring mathematical models of coral reef regrowth after some ecological disturbance, such as damage caused by a tropical cyclone. In particular, we compare a simple single species ordinary differential equation (ODE) model approach with a more complicated two-species coupled ODE model. Univariate profile likelihood analysis suggests that the both models are practically identifiable. To provide additional insight we construct and compare approximate prediction intervals using a new parameter-wise prediction approximation, confirming both the simple and complex models perform similarly with regard to making predictions. Our approximate parameter-wise prediction interval analysis provides explicit information about how each parameter affects the predictions of each model. Comparing our approximate prediction intervals with a more rigorous and computationally expensive evaluation of the full likelihood shows that the new approximations are reasonable in this case. All algorithms and software to support this work are freely available as jupyter notebooks on GitHub so that they can be adapted to deal with any other ODE-based models.

Computationally efficient mechanism discovery for cell invasion with uncertainty quantification

Parameter estimation for mathematical models of biological processes is often difficult and depends significantly on the quality and quantity of available data. We introduce an efficient framework using Gaussian processes to discover mechanisms underlying delay, migration, and proliferation in a cell invasion experiment. Gaussian processes are leveraged with bootstrapping to provide uncertainty quantification for the mechanisms that drive the invasion process. Our framework is efficient, parallelisable, and can be applied to other biological problems. We illustrate our methods using a canonical scratch assay experiment, demonstrating how simply we can explore different functional forms and develop and test hypotheses about underlying mechanisms, such as whether delay is present. All code and data to reproduce this work are available at https://github.com/DanielVandH/EquationLearning.jl.

Parameter estimation and uncertainty quantification using information geometry

In this work, we: (i) review likelihood-based inference for parameter estimation and the construction of confidence regions; and (ii) explore the use of techniques from information geometry, including geodesic curves and Riemann scalar curvature, to supplement typical techniques for uncertainty quantification, such as Bayesian methods, profile likelihood, asymptotic analysis and bootstrapping. These techniques from information geometry provide data-independent insights into uncertainty and identifiability, and can be used to inform data collection decisions. All code used in this work to implement the inference and information geometry techniques is available on GitHub.

Parameterized Computational Framework for the Description and Design of Genetic Circuits of Morphogenesis Based on Contact-Dependent Signaling and Changes in Cell-Cell Adhesion

Synthetic development is a nascent field of research that uses the tools of synthetic biology to design genetic programs directing cellular patterning and morphogenesis in higher eukaryotic cells, such as mammalian cells. One specific example of such synthetic genetic programs was based on cell-cell contact-dependent signaling using synthetic Notch pathways and was shown to drive the formation of multilayered spheroids by modulating cell-cell adhesion via differential expression of cadherin family proteins in a mouse fibroblast cell line (L929). The design method for these genetic programs relied on trial and error, which limited the number of possible circuits and parameter ranges that could be explored. Here, we build a parameterized computational framework that, given a cell-cell communication network driving changes in cell adhesion and initial conditions as inputs, predicts developmental trajectories. We first built a general computational framework where contact-dependent cell-cell signaling networks and changes in cell-cell adhesion could be designed in a modular fashion. We then used a set of available in vitro results (that we call the "training set" in analogy to similar pipelines in the machine learning field) to parameterize the computational model with values for adhesion and signaling. We then show that this parameterized model can qualitatively predict experimental results from a "testing set" of available in vitro data that varied the genetic network in terms of adhesion combinations, initial number of cells, and even changes to the network architecture. Finally, this parameterized model is used to recommend novel network implementation for the formation of a four-layered structure that has not been reported previously. The framework that we develop here could function as a testing ground to identify the reachable space of morphologies that can be obtained by controlling contact-dependent cell-cell communications and adhesion with these molecular tools and in this cellular system. Additionally, we discuss how the model could be expanded to include other forms of communication or effectors for the computational design of the next generation of synthetic developmental trajectories.

Optimal regulation of tumour-associated neutrophils in cancer progression

In a tumour microenvironment, tumour-associated neutrophils could display two opposing differential phenotypes: anti-tumour (N1) and pro-tumour (N2) effector cells. Converting N2 to N1 neutrophils provides innovative therapies for cancer treatment. In this study, a mathematical model for N1-N2 dynamics describing the cancer survival and immune inhibition in response to TGF-β and IFN-β is considered. The effects of exogenous intervention of TGF-β inhibitor and IFN-β are examined in order to enhance N1 recruitment to combat tumour progression. Our approach employs optimal control theory to determine drug infusion protocols that could minimize tumour volume with least administration cost possible. Four optimal control scenarios corresponding to different therapeutic strategies are explored, namely, TGF-β inhibitor control only, IFN-β control only, concomitant TGF-β inhibitor and IFN-β controls, and alternating TGF-β inhibitor and IFN-β controls. For each scheme, different initial conditions are varied to depict different pathophysiological condition of a cancer patient, leading to adaptive treatment schedule. TGF-β inhibitor and IFN-β drug dosages, total drug amount, infusion times and relative cost of drug administrations are obtained under various circumstances. The control strategies achieved could guide in designing individualized therapeutic protocols.

Seven challenges in the multiscale modeling of multicellular tissues

The growth and dynamics of multicellular tissues involve tightly regulated and coordinated morphogenetic cell behaviors, such as shape changes, movement, and division, which are governed by subcellular machinery and involve coupling through short- and long-range signals. A key challenge in the fields of developmental biology, tissue engineering and regenerative medicine is to understand how relationships between scales produce emergent tissue-scale behaviors. Recent advances in molecular biology, live-imaging and ex vivo techniques have revolutionized our ability to study these processes experimentally. To fully leverage these techniques and obtain a more comprehensive understanding of the causal relationships underlying tissue dynamics, computational modeling approaches are increasingly spanning multiple spatial and temporal scales, and are coupling cell shape, growth, mechanics, and signaling. Yet such models remain challenging: modeling at each scale requires different areas of technical skills, while integration across scales necessitates the solution to novel mathematical and computational problems. This review aims to summarize recent progress in multiscale modeling of multicellular tissues and to highlight ongoing challenges associated with the construction, implementation, interrogation, and validation of such models. This article is categorized under: Reproductive System Diseases > Computational Models Metabolic Diseases > Computational Models Cancer > Computational Models.

A single-cell resolved cell-cell communication model explains lineage commitment in hematopoiesis

Cells do not make fate decisions independently. Arguably, every cell-fate decision occurs in response to environmental signals. In many cases, cell-cell communication alters the dynamics of the internal gene regulatory network of a cell to initiate cell-fate transitions, yet models rarely take this into account. Here, we have developed a multiscale perspective to study the granulocyte-monocyte versus megakaryocyte-erythrocyte fate decisions. This transition is dictated by the GATA1-PU.1 network: a classical example of a bistable cell-fate system. We show that, for a wide range of cell communication topologies, even subtle changes in signaling can have pronounced effects on cell-fate decisions. We go on to show how cell-cell coupling through signaling can spontaneously break the symmetry of a homogenous cell population. Noise, both intrinsic and extrinsic, shapes the decision landscape profoundly, and affects the transcriptional dynamics underlying this important hematopoietic cell-fate decision-making system.

This article has an associated ‘The people behind the papers’ interview.

Summary: Through theory and computational modeling, cell-cell communication is revealed to be a crucial and under-appreciated determinant of cell-fate decision-making during hematopoiesis.

Bayesian calibration of a stochastic, multiscale agent-based model for predicting in vitro tumor growth

Hybrid multiscale agent-based models (ABMs) are unique in their ability to simulate individual cell interactions and microenvironmental dynamics. Unfortunately, the high computational cost of modeling individual cells, the inherent stochasticity of cell dynamics, and numerous model parameters are fundamental limitations of applying such models to predict tumor dynamics. To overcome these challenges, we have developed a coarse-grained two-scale ABM (cgABM) with a reduced parameter space that allows for an accurate and efficient calibration using a set of time-resolved microscopy measurements of cancer cells grown with different initial conditions. The multiscale model consists of a reaction-diffusion type model capturing the spatio-temporal evolution of glucose and growth factors in the tumor microenvironment (at tissue scale), coupled with a lattice-free ABM to simulate individual cell dynamics (at cellular scale). The experimental data consists of BT474 human breast carcinoma cells initialized with different glucose concentrations and tumor cell confluences. The confluence of live and dead cells was measured every three hours over four days. Given this model, we perform a time-dependent global sensitivity analysis to identify the relative importance of the model parameters. The subsequent cgABM is calibrated within a Bayesian framework to the experimental data to estimate model parameters, which are then used to predict the temporal evolution of the living and dead cell populations. To this end, a moment-based Bayesian inference is proposed to account for the stochasticity of the cgABM while quantifying uncertainties due to limited temporal observational data. The cgABM reduces the computational time of ABM simulations by 93% to 97% while staying within a 3% difference in prediction compared to ABM. Additionally, the cgABM can reliably predict the temporal evolution of breast cancer cells observed by the microscopy data with an average error and standard deviation for live and dead cells being 7.61±2.01 and 5.78±1.13, respectively.

The calibration of agent-based models of tumor cell growth to experimental data remains a challenge in computational oncology. Besides the computational cost of modeling thousands of agents, the model’s intrinsic stochasticity demands numerous realizations of the simulations to accurately represent the statistical features of the model predictions. We developed a hybrid, multiscale, coarse-grain, agent-based model that captures the growth and decline of human breast carcinoma cells under different initial conditions. We determined the effects of coarse-graining the ABM on the multiscale model output and the number of repetitions necessary to capture the stochastic transitions present in the model. We identified the most influential parameters on the model prediction through a sensitivity analysis and selected which parameters can be fixed and which ones should be calibrated. Using Bayesian calibration, we show that the model can accurately represent the experimental data. The validation step indicates that our model can reliably predict the in vitro temporal data, depending on the choice of the training (calibration data) sets.

Modelling Cellular Interactions and Dynamics During Kidney Morphogenesis

Kidney disease and renal disorders account for a significant proportion of health complications in mid-late adulthood worldwide. Many renal deficiencies are due to improper formation of the kidneys before birth, which are caused by disorders in the developmental process that arise from genetic and/or environmental factors. Mathematical modelling can help build on experimental knowledge to increase our understanding of the complexities of kidney organogenesis. In this paper, we present a discrete cell-based model of kidney development. Specifically, we model the tip of the developing ureteric tree to investigate the behaviours of cap mesenchyme cells which are required to sustain ureteric tip growth. We find that spatial regulation of the differentiation of cap mesenchyme cells through cellular signalling is sufficient to ensure robust ureteric tip development. Additionally, we find that increased adhesion interactions between cap mesenchyme cells and the ureteric tip surface can lead to a more stable tip-cap unit. Our analysis of the various processes on this scale highlights essential components for healthy kidney growth and provides insight into mechanisms to be studied further in order to replicate the process in vitro.

Modeling the effects of EMT-immune dynamics on carcinoma disease progression

During progression from carcinoma in situ to an invasive tumor, the immune system is engaged in complex sets of interactions with various tumor cells. Tumor cell plasticity alters disease trajectories via epithelial-to-mesenchymal transition (EMT). Several of the same pathways that regulate EMT are involved in tumor-immune interactions, yet little is known about the mechanisms and consequences of crosstalk between these regulatory processes. Here we introduce a multiscale evolutionary model to describe tumor-immune-EMT interactions and their impact on epithelial cancer progression from in situ to invasive disease. Through simulation of patient cohorts in silico, the model predicts that a controllable region maximizes invasion-free survival. This controllable region depends on properties of the mesenchymal tumor cell phenotype: its growth rate and its immune-evasiveness. In light of the model predictions, we analyze EMT-inflammation-associated data from The Cancer Genome Atlas, and find that association with EMT worsens invasion-free survival probabilities. This result supports the predictions of the model, and leads to the identification of genes that influence outcomes in bladder and uterine cancer, including FGF pathway members. These results suggest new means to delay disease progression, and demonstrate the importance of studying cancer-immune interactions in light of EMT.

Magnesium ions regulate mesenchymal stem cells population and osteogenic differentiation: A fuzzy agent-based modeling approach

Mesenchymal stem cells (MSCs) are proliferative and multipotent cells that play a key role in the bone regeneration process. Empirical data have repeatedly shown the bioregulatory importance of magnesium (Mg) ions in MSC growth and osteogenesis. In this study, we propose an agent-based model to predict the spatiotemporal dynamics of the MSC population and osteogenic differentiation in response to Mg2+ ions. A fuzzy-logic controller was designed to govern the decision-making process of cells by predicting four cellular processes of proliferation, differentiation, migration, and mortality in response to several important bioregulatory factors such as Mg2+ ions, pH, BMP2, and TGF-β1. The model was calibrated using the empirical data obtained from three sets of cell culture experiments. The model successfully reproduced the empirical observations regarding live cell count, viability, DNA content, and the differentiation-related markers of alkaline phosphate (ALP) and osteocalcin (OC). The simulation results, in agreement with the empirical data, showed that Mg2+ ions within 3-6 mM concentration have the highest stimulation effect on cell population growth. The model also correctly reproduced the stimulatory effect of Mg2+ ions on ALP and its inhibitory effect on OC as the early and late differentiation markers, respectively. Besides, the numerical simulation shed light on the innate cellular differences of the cells cultured in different experiments in terms of the proliferative capacity as well as sensitivity to Mg2+ ions. The proposed model can be adopted in the study of the osteogenesis around Mg-based implants where ions released due to degradation interact with local cells and regulate bone regeneration.

Multi-scale simulation of early kidney branching morphogenesis

An important feature of the branch morphogenesis during kidney development is the termination of the tips on the outer surface of a kidney. This feature requires the avoidance of the intersection between the tips and existing ducts inside the kidney. Here, we started from a continuous model and implemented the coarse grained rules into a fast and discrete simulations. The ligand-receptor-based Turing mechanism suggests a repulsion that decreases exponentially with distance between interacting branches, preventing the intersection between neighboring branches. We considered this repulsive effect in numerical simulations and successfully reproduce the key features of the experimentally observed branch morphology for an E15.5 kidney. We examine the similarity of several geometrical parameters between the simulation results and experimental observations. The good agreement between the simulations and experiments suggests that the concentration decay caused by the absorption of glial cell line derived neurotrophic factor might be the key factor to affect the geometry in early kidney development.

Coupled differentiation and division of embryonic stem cells inferred from clonal snapshots

The deluge of single-cell data obtained by sequencing, imaging and epigenetic markers has led to an increasingly detailed description of cell state. However, it remains challenging to identify how cells transition between different states, in part because data are typically limited to snapshots in time. A prerequisite for inferring cell state transitions from such snapshots is to distinguish whether transitions are coupled to cell divisions. To address this, we present two minimal branching process models of cell division and differentiation in a well-mixed population. These models describe dynamics where differentiation and division are coupled or uncoupled. For each model, we derive analytic expressions for each subpopulation's mean and variance and for the likelihood, allowing exact Bayesian parameter inference and model selection in the idealised case of fully observed trajectories of differentiation and division events. In the case of snapshots, we present a sample path algorithm and use this to predict optimal temporal spacing of measurements for experimental design. We then apply this methodology to an in vitro dataset assaying the clonal growth of epiblast stem cells in culture conditions promoting self-renewal or differentiation. Here, the larger number of cell states necessitates approximate Bayesian computation. For both culture conditions, our inference supports the model where cell state transitions are coupled to division. For culture conditions promoting differentiation, our analysis indicates a possible shift in dynamics, with these processes becoming more coupled over time.

Engineering and modeling of multicellular morphologies and patterns

Synthetic multicellular (MC) systems have the capacity to increase our understanding of biofilms and higher organisms, and to serve as engineering platforms for developing complex products in the areas of medicine, biosynthesis and smart materials. Here we provide an interdisciplinary perspective and review on emerging approaches to engineer and model MC systems. We lay out definitions for key terms in the field and identify toolboxes of standardized parts which can be combined into various MC algorithms to achieve specific outcomes. Many essential parts and algorithms have been demonstrated in some form. As key next milestones for the field, we foresee the improvement of these parts and their adaptation to more biological systems, the demonstration of more complex algorithms, the advancement of quantitative modeling approaches and compilers to support rational MC engineering, and implementation of MC engineering for practical applications.

Toward Engineering Biosystems With Emergent Collective Functions

Many complex behaviors in biological systems emerge from large populations of interacting molecules or cells, generating functions that go beyond the capabilities of the individual parts. Such collective phenomena are of great interest to bioengineers due to their robustness and scalability. However, engineering emergent collective functions is difficult because they arise as a consequence of complex multi-level feedback, which often spans many length-scales. Here, we present a perspective on how some of these challenges could be overcome by using multi-agent modeling as a design framework within synthetic biology. Using case studies covering the construction of synthetic ecologies to biological computation and synthetic cellularity, we show how multi-agent modeling can capture the core features of complex multi-scale systems and provide novel insights into the underlying mechanisms which guide emergent functionalities across scales. The ability to unravel design rules underpinning these behaviors offers a means to take synthetic biology beyond single molecules or cells and toward the creation of systems with functions that can only emerge from collectives at multiple scales.

Identifying density-dependent interactions in collective cell behaviour

Scratch assays are routinely used to study collective cell behaviour in vitro. Typical experimental protocols do not vary the initial density of cells, and typical mathematical modelling approaches describe cell motility and proliferation based on assumptions of linear diffusion and logistic growth. Jin et al. (Jin et al. 2016 J. Theor. Biol. 390, 136-145 (doi:10.1016/j.jtbi.2015.10.040)) find that the behaviour of cells in scratch assays is density-dependent, and show that standard modelling approaches cannot simultaneously describe data initiated across a range of initial densities. To address this limitation, we calibrate an individual-based model to scratch assay data across a large range of initial densities. Our model allows proliferation, motility, and a direction bias to depend on interactions between neighbouring cells. By considering a hierarchy of models where we systematically and sequentially remove interactions, we perform model selection analysis to identify the minimum interactions required for the model to simultaneously describe data across all initial densities. The calibrated model is able to match the experimental data across all densities using a single parameter distribution, and captures details about the spatial structure of cells. Our results provide strong evidence to suggest that motility is density-dependent in these experiments. On the other hand, we do not see the effect of crowding on proliferation in these experiments. These results are significant as they are precisely the opposite of the assumptions in standard continuum models, such as the Fisher-Kolmogorov equation and its generalizations.

Simulation and inference algorithms for stochastic biochemical reaction networks: from basic concepts to state-of-the-art

Stochasticity is a key characteristic of intracellular processes such as gene regulation and chemical signalling. Therefore, characterizing stochastic effects in biochemical systems is essential to understand the complex dynamics of living things. Mathematical idealizations of biochemically reacting systems must be able to capture stochastic phenomena. While robust theory exists to describe such stochastic models, the computational challenges in exploring these models can be a significant burden in practice since realistic models are analytically intractable. Determining the expected behaviour and variability of a stochastic biochemical reaction network requires many probabilistic simulations of its evolution. Using a biochemical reaction network model to assist in the interpretation of time-course data from a biological experiment is an even greater challenge due to the intractability of the likelihood function for determining observation probabilities. These computational challenges have been subjects of active research for over four decades. In this review, we present an accessible discussion of the major historical developments and state-of-the-art computational techniques relevant to simulation and inference problems for stochastic biochemical reaction network models. Detailed algorithms for particularly important methods are described and complemented with Matlab^® implementations. As a result, this review provides a practical and accessible introduction to computational methods for stochastic models within the life sciences community.

Practical parameter identifiability for spatio-temporal models of cell invasion

We examine the practical identifiability of parameters in a spatio-temporal reaction-diffusion model of a scratch assay. Experimental data involve fluorescent cell cycle labels, providing spatial information about cell position and temporal information about the cell cycle phase. Cell cycle labelling is incorporated into the reaction-diffusion model by treating the total population as two interacting subpopulations. Practical identifiability is examined using a Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) framework, confirming that the parameters are identifiable when we assume the diffusivities of the subpopulations are identical, but that the parameters are practically non-identifiable when we allow the diffusivities to be distinct. We also assess practical identifiability using a profile likelihood approach, providing similar results to MCMC with the advantage of being an order of magnitude faster to compute. Therefore, we suggest that the profile likelihood ought to be adopted as a screening tool to assess practical identifiability before MCMC computations are performed.

Synthetic development: building mammalian multicellular structures with artificial genetic programs

Synthetic biology efforts began in simple single-cell systems, which were relatively easy to manipulate genetically (Cameron et al., 2014). The field grew exponentially in the last two decades, and one of the latest frontiers are synthetic developmental programs for multicellular mammalian systems (Black et al., 2017; Wieland and Fussenegger, 2012) to genetically control features such as patterning or morphogenesis. These programs rely on engineered cell-cell communications, multicellular gene regulatory networks and effector genes. Here, we contextualize the first of these synthetic developmental programs, examine molecular and computational tools that can be used to generate next generation versions, and present the general logic that underpins these approaches. These advances are exciting as they represent a novel way to address both control and understanding in the field of developmental biology and tissue development (Elowitz and Lim, 2010; Velazquez et al., 2018; White et al., 2018; Morsut, 2017). This field is just at the beginning, and it promises to be of major interest in the upcoming years of biomedical research.

Agent-based modeling of morphogenetic systems: Advantages and challenges

The complexity of morphogenesis poses a fundamental challenge to understanding the mechanisms governing the formation of biological patterns and structures. Over the past century, numerous processes have been identified as critically contributing to morphogenetic events, but the interplay between the various components and aspects of pattern formation have been much harder to grasp. The combination of traditional biology with mathematical and computational methods has had a profound effect on our current understanding of morphogenesis and led to significant insights and advancements in the field. In particular, the theoretical concepts of reaction–diffusion systems and positional information, proposed by Alan Turing and Lewis Wolpert, respectively, dramatically influenced our general view of morphogenesis, although typically in isolation from one another. In recent years, agent-based modeling has been emerging as a consolidation and implementation of the two theories within a single framework. Agent-based models (ABMs) are unique in their ability to integrate combinations of heterogeneous processes and investigate their respective dynamics, especially in the context of spatial phenomena. In this review, we highlight the benefits and technical challenges associated with ABMs as tools for examining morphogenetic events. These models display unparalleled flexibility for studying various morphogenetic phenomena at multiple levels and have the important advantage of informing future experimental work, including the targeted engineering of tissues and organs.

Collective Cell Migration in Development

Collective cell migration is a key process in developmental biology, facilitating the bulk movement of cells in the morphogenesis of animal tissues. Predictive understanding in this field remains challenging due to the complexity of many interacting cells, their signalling, and microenvironmental factors - all of which can give rise to non-intuitive emergent behaviours. In this chapter we discuss biological examples of collective cell migration from a range of model systems, developmental stages, and spatial scales: border cell migration and haemocyte dispersal in Drosophila, gastrulation, neural crest migration, lateral line formation in zebrafish, and branching morphogenesis; as well as examples of developmental defects and similarities to metastatic invasion in cancer. These examples will be used to illustrate principles that we propose to be important: heterogeneity of cell states, substrate-free migration, contact-inhibition of locomotion, confinement and repulsive cues, cell-induced (or self-generated) gradients, stochastic group decisions, tissue mechanics, and reprogramming of cell behaviours. Understanding how such principles play a common, overarching role across multiple biological systems may lead towards a more integrative understanding of the causes and function of collective cell migration in developmental biology, and to potential strategies for the repair of developmental defects, the prevention and control of cancer, and advances in tissue engineering.

Mathematical Approaches of Branching Morphogenesis

Many organs require a high surface to volume ratio to properly function. Lungs and kidneys, for example, achieve this by creating highly branched tubular structures during a developmental process called branching morphogenesis. The genes that control lung and kidney branching share a similar network structure that is based on ligand-receptor reciprocal signalling interactions between the epithelium and the surrounding mesenchyme. Nevertheless, the temporal and spatial development of the branched epithelial trees differs, resulting in organs of distinct shape and size. In the embryonic lung, branching morphogenesis highly depends on FGF10 signalling, whereas GDNF is the driving morphogen in the kidney. Knockout of Fgf10 and Gdnf leads to lung and kidney agenesis, respectively. However, FGF10 plays a significant role during kidney branching and both the FGF10 and GDNF pathway converge on the transcription factors ETV4/5. Although the involved signalling proteins have been defined, the underlying mechanism that controls lung and kidney branching morphogenesis is still elusive. A wide range of modelling approaches exists that differ not only in the mathematical framework (e.g., stochastic or deterministic) but also in the spatial scale (e.g., cell or tissue level). Due to advancing imaging techniques, image-based modelling approaches have proven to be a valuable method for investigating the control of branching events with respect to organ-specific properties. Here, we review several mathematical models on lung and kidney branching morphogenesis and suggest that a ligand-receptor-based Turing model represents a potential candidate for a general but also adaptive mechanism to control branching morphogenesis during development.