Analysis of trophic interactions reveals highly plastic response to climate change in a tri-trophic High-Arctic ecosystem

Flowering time responses to warming drive reproductive fitness in a changing Arctic

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The Arctic is warming at an alarming rate, leading to earlier spring conditions and plant phenology. It is often unclear to what degree changes in reproductive fitness (flower, fruit and seed production) are a direct response to warming versus an indirect response through shifting phenology. The aim of this study was to quantify the relative importance of these direct and indirect pathways and project the net effects of warming on plant phenology and reproductive fitness under current and future climate scenarios.

METHODS

We used two long-term datasets on 12 tundra species in the Canadian Arctic as part of the International Tundra Experiment (ITEX). Phenology and reproductive fitness were recorded annually on tagged individual plants at both Daring Lake, Northwest Territories (64° 52' N, - 111° 35' W) and Alexandra Fiord, Nunavut (78° 49' N, - 75° 48' W). The plant species encompassed a wide taxonomic diversity across a range of plant functional types with circumpolar/boreal distributions. We used hierarchical Bayesian structural equation models to compare the direct and indirect effects of climate warming on phenology and reproductive fitness across species, sites and years.

KEY RESULTS

We found that warming, both experimental and ambient, drove earlier flowering across species, which led to higher numbers of flowers and fruits produced, reflecting directional phenotypic selection for earlier flowering phenology. Furthermore, this indirect effect of climate warming mediated through phenology was generally about two to three times stronger than the direct effect of climate on reproductive fitness. Under future climate predictions, individual plants showed a ~2- to 4.5-fold increase in their reproductive fitness (flower counts) with advanced flowering phenology.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results suggest that, on average, the benefits of early flowering, such as increased development time and subsequent enhanced reproductive fitness, might outweigh its risks. Overall, this work provides important insights into population-level consequences of phenological shifts in a warming Arctic over multi-decadal time scales.

Hatching phenology is lagging behind an advancing snowmelt pattern in a high-alpine bird

To track peaks in resource abundance, temperate-zone animals use predictive environmental cues to rear their offspring when conditions are most favourable. However, climate change threatens the reliability of such cues when an animal and its resource respond differently to a changing environment. This is especially problematic in alpine environments, where climate warming exceeds the Holarctic trend and may thus lead to rapid asynchrony between peaks in resource abundance and periods of increased resource requirements such as reproductive period of high-alpine specialists. We therefore investigated interannual variation and long-term trends in the breeding phenology of a high-alpine specialist, the white-winged snowfinch, Montifringilla nivalis, using a 20-year dataset from Switzerland. We found that two thirds of broods hatched during snowmelt. Hatching dates positively correlated with April and May precipitation, but changes in mean hatching dates did not coincide with earlier snowmelt in recent years. Our results offer a potential explanation for recently observed population declines already recognisable at lower elevations. We discuss non-adaptive phenotypic plasticity as a potential cause for the asynchrony between changes in snowmelt and hatching dates of snowfinches, but the underlying causes are subject to further research.

Elevated CO2 Impacts on Plant-Pollinator Interactions: A Systematic Review and Free Air Carbon Enrichment Field Study

Simple Summary

Climate change is having a profound impact on pollination systems, yet we still do not know to what extent increasing concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO₂) will directly affect the interactions between plants and their pollinators. We review all the existing published literature on the effect of elevated CO₂ (eCO₂) on flowering time, nectar and pollen production and plant–pollinator interactions. We also conduct a field experiment to test the effect of eCO₂ on bluebells and their pollinators. We found that few studies have assessed the impact of eCO₂ on pollination, and our field data found that bluebells flowered on average 6 days earlier under eCO₂ conditions. Hoverflies and bumble bees were the main visitors to bluebell flowers, but insect activity was low early in the flowing period. Although we did not find a difference in the number of visits made by insects to bluebell flowers under eCO₂, or the amount of seeds those flowers produced, the change in the timing of flowering could mean that a mismatch could develop between bluebells and their pollinators in the future, which would affect pollination success.

Abstract

The impact of elevated CO₂ (eCO₂) on plant–pollinator interactions is poorly understood. This study provides the first systematic review of this topic and identifies important knowledge gaps. In addition, we present field data assessing the impact of eCO₂ (150 ppm above ambient) on bluebell (Hyacinthoides non-scripta)–pollinator interactions within a mature, deciduous woodland system. Since 1956, only 71 primary papers have investigated eCO₂ effects on flowering time, floral traits and pollination, with a mere 3 studies measuring the impact on pollination interactions. Our field experiment documented flowering phenology, flower visitation and seed production, as well as the abundance and phenology of dominant insect pollinators. We show that first and mid-point flowering occurred 6 days earlier under eCO₂, but with no change in flowering duration. Syrphid flies and bumble bees were the dominant flower visitors, with peak activity recorded during mid- and late-flowering periods. Whilst no significant difference was recorded in total visitation or seed set between eCO₂ and ambient treatments, there were clear patterns of earlier flowering under eCO₂ accompanied by lower pollinator activity during this period. This has implications for potential loss of synchrony in pollination systems under future climate scenarios, with associated long-term impacts on abundance and diversity.

Global population trends in shorebirds: migratory behaviour makes species at risk

Linking population trends to species' traits is informative for the detection of the most important threatening factors and for assessing the effectiveness of conservation measures. Although some previous studies performed such an analysis at local to continental scales, the global-scale focus is the most relevant for conservation of the entire species. Here we evaluate information on global population trends of shorebirds, a widely distributed and ecologically diversified group, where some species connect different parts of the world by migration, while others are residents. Nowadays, shorebirds face rapid environmental changes caused by various human activities and climate change. Numerous signs of regional population declines have been recently reported in response to these threats. The aim of our study was to test whether breeding and non-breeding habitats, migratory behaviour (migrants vs. residents) and migration distance, breeding latitude, generation time and breeding range size mirror species' global population trends. We found that a majority of shorebird species have declined globally. After accounting for the influence of traits and species taxonomy, linear mixed-effects models showed that populations of migratory shorebirds decreased more than populations of residents. Besides that, declines were more frequent for species breeding at high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, but these patterns did not hold after excluding the non-migratory species. Our findings suggest that factors linked to migration, such as habitat loss as well as deterioration at stop-over or wintering sites and a pronounced climate change impact at high latitudes, are possible drivers of the observed worldwide population decreases.

Pollinator visitation rate and effectiveness vary with flowering phenology

PREMISE

Flowering time may influence pollination success and seed set through a variety of mechanisms, including seasonal changes in total pollinator visitation or the composition and effectiveness of pollinator visitors.

METHODS

We investigated mechanisms by which changes in flowering phenology influence pollination and reproductive success of Mertensia ciliata (Boraginaceae). We manipulated flowering onset of potted plants and assessed the frequency and composition of pollinator visitors, as well as seed set. We tested whether floral visitors differed in their effectiveness as pollinators by measuring pollen receipt and seed set resulting from single visits to virgin flowers.

RESULTS

Despite a five-fold decrease in pollinator visitation over four weeks, we detected no significant difference in seed set among plants blooming at different times. On a per-visit basis, each bumblebee transferred more conspecific pollen than did a solitary bee or a fly. The proportion of visits by bumblebees increased over the season, countering the decrease in visitation rate so that flowering time had little net effect on seed set.

CONCLUSIONS

This work illustrates the need to consider pollinator effectiveness, along with changes in pollinator visitation and species composition to understand the mechanisms by which phenology affects levels of pollination.

Status and trends of terrestrial arthropod abundance and diversity in the North Atlantic region of the Arctic

The Circumpolar Biodiversity Monitoring Programme (CBMP) provides an opportunity to improve our knowledge of Arctic arthropod diversity, but initial baseline studies are required to summarise the status and trends of planned target groups of species known as Focal Ecosystem Components (FECs). We begin this process by collating available data for a relatively well-studied region in the Arctic, the North Atlantic region, summarising the diversity of key terrestrial arthropod FECs, and compiling trends for some representative species. We found the FEC classification system to be challenging to implement, but identified some key groups to target in the initial phases of the programme. Long-term data are scarce and exhibit high levels of spatial and temporal variability. Nevertheless, we found that a number of species and groups are in decline, mirroring patterns in other regions of the world. We emphasise that terrestrial arthropods require higher priority within future Arctic monitoring programmes.

Flexibility in a changing arctic food web: Can rough-legged buzzards cope with changing small rodent communities?

Indirect effects of climate change are often mediated by trophic interactions and consequences for individual species depend on how they are tied into the local food web. Here we show how the response of demographic rates of an arctic bird of prey to fluctuations in small rodent abundance changed when small rodent community composition and dynamics changed, possibly under the effect of climate warming. We observed the breeding biology of rough-legged buzzards (Buteo lagopus) at the Erkuta Tundra Monitoring Site in southern Yamal, low arctic Russia, for 19 years (1999-2017). At the same time, data on small rodent abundance were collected and information on buzzard diet was obtained from pellet dissection. The small rodent community experienced a shift from high-amplitude cycles to dampened fluctuations paralleled with a change in species composition toward less lemmings and more voles. Buzzards clearly preferred lemmings as prey. Breeding density of buzzards was positively related to small rodent abundance, but the shift in small rodent community lead to lower numbers relative to small rodent abundance. At the same time, after the change in small rodent community, the average number of fledglings was higher relative to small rodent abundance than earlier. These results suggest that the buzzard population adapted to a certain degree to the changes in the major resource, although at the same time density declined. The documented flexibility in the short-term response of demographic rates to changes in structure and dynamics of key food web components make it difficult to predict how complex food webs will be transformed in a warmer Arctic. The degree of plasticity of functional responses is indeed likely to vary between species and between regions, depending also on the local food web context.

Characterizing ecosystem phenological diversity and its macroecology with snow cover phenology

One critical challenge of exploring flora phenology is on characterizing ecosystem phenological diversity (EPD), and thus how EPD’s performance is influenced by climate changes has also been an open macro-ecological question. To fill these two gaps, we proposed an innovative method for reflecting EPD, by taking the advantage of the often-classified inverse factor of spatial resolution discrepancy between the used remote sensing datasets of vegetation phenological dates (green-up and brown-up) and snow cover phenological dates (SPDs) (onset and end) around the Arctic, and further, we examined the cross response/feedbacks of the two kinds of EPDs to the two categories of SPDs. We found that the circumpolar green-up and brown-up EPDs both were shrinking, driven more by the delaying of the onset SPDs than the advancing of the end SPDs; North America and North Eurasia performed with inconsistent EPD response/feedbacks to the related SPD anomalies; and further, the EPD-SPD response/feedbacks in some locations exhibited the time-lag effect, e.g., the green-up EPDs made the strongest response to the onset SPDs of two years earlier. Overall, the validated method and the new findings are of implications for improving the phenology modules in Earth system models, and the contributions of the present study have enlightening significance for kicking off the new EPD branch in macrosystem phenological ecology.

Overlooked climate parameters best predict flowering onset: Assessing phenological models using the elastic net

Determining the manner in which plant species shift their flowering times in response to climatic conditions is essential to understanding and forecasting the impacts of climate change on the world's flora. The limited taxonomic diversity and duration of most phenological datasets, however, have impeded a comprehensive, systematic determination of the best predictors of flowering phenology. Additionally, many studies of the relationship between climate conditions and plant phenology have included only a limited set of climate parameters that are often chosen a priori and may therefore overlook those parameters to which plants are most phenologically sensitive. This study harnesses 894,392 digital herbarium records and 1,959 in situ observations to produce the first assessment of the effects of a large number (25) of climate parameters on the flowering time of a very large number (2,468) of angiosperm taxa throughout North America. In addition, we compare the predictive capacity of phenological models constructed from the collection dates of herbarium specimens vs. repeated in situ observations of individual plants using a regression approach-elastic net regularization-that has not previously been used in phenological modeling, but exhibits several advantages over ordinary least squares and stepwise regression. When herbarium-derived data and in situ phenological observations were used to predict flowering onset, the multivariate models based on each of these data sources had similar predictive capacity (R²  = 0.27). Further, apart from mean maximum temperature (TMAX), the two best predictors of flowering time have not commonly been included in phenological models: the number of frost-free days (NFFD) and the quantity of precipitation as snow (PAS) in the seasons preceding flowering. By vetting these models across an unprecedented number of taxa, this work demonstrates a new approach to phenological modeling.

Global shifts in the phenological synchrony of species interactions over recent decades

Phenological responses to climate change (e.g., earlier leaf-out or egg hatch date) are now well documented and clearly linked to rising temperatures in recent decades. Such shifts in the phenologies of interacting species may lead to shifts in their synchrony, with cascading community and ecosystem consequences. To date, single-system studies have provided no clear picture, either finding synchrony shifts may be extremely prevalent [Mayor SJ, et al. (2017) Sci Rep 7:1902] or relatively uncommon [Iler AM, et al. (2013) Glob Chang Biol 19:2348-2359], suggesting that shifts toward asynchrony may be infrequent. A meta-analytic approach would provide insights into global trends and how they are linked to climate change. We compared phenological shifts among pairwise species interactions (e.g., predator-prey) using published long-term time-series data of phenological events from aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems across four continents since 1951 to determine whether recent climate change has led to overall shifts in synchrony. We show that the relative timing of key life cycle events of interacting species has changed significantly over the past 35 years. Further, by comparing the period before major climate change (pre-1980s) and after, we show that estimated changes in phenology and synchrony are greater in recent decades. However, there has been no consistent trend in the direction of these changes. Our findings show that there have been shifts in the timing of interacting species in recent decades; the next challenges are to improve our ability to predict the direction of change and understand the full consequences for communities and ecosystems.

Delayed egg-laying and shortened incubation duration of Arctic-breeding shorebirds coincide with climate cooling

Biological impacts of climate change are exemplified by shifts in phenology. As the timing of breeding advances, the within‐season relationships between timing of breeding and reproductive traits may change and cause long‐term changes in the population mean value of reproductive traits. We investigated long‐term changes in the timing of breeding and within‐season patterns of clutch size, egg volume, incubation duration, and daily nest survival of three shorebird species between two decades. Based on previously known within‐season patterns and assuming a warming trend, we hypothesized that the timing of clutch initiation would advance between decades and would be coupled with increases in mean clutch size, egg volume, and daily nest survival rate. We monitored 1,378 nests of western sandpipers, semipalmated sandpipers, and red‐necked phalaropes at a subarctic site during 1993–1996 and 2010–2014. Sandpipers have biparental incubation, whereas phalaropes have uniparental incubation. We found an unexpected long‐term cooling trend during the early part of the breeding season. Three species delayed clutch initiation by 5 days in the 2010s relative to the 1990s. Clutch size and daily nest survival showed strong within‐season declines in sandpipers, but not in phalaropes. Egg volume showed strong within‐season declines in one species of sandpiper, but increased in phalaropes. Despite the within‐season patterns in traits and shifts in phenology, clutch size, egg volume, and daily nest survival were similar between decades. In contrast, incubation duration did not show within‐season variation, but decreased by 2 days in sandpipers and increased by 2 days in phalaropes. Shorebirds demonstrated variable breeding phenology and incubation duration in relation to climate cooling, but little change in nonphenological components of traits. Our results indicate that the breeding phenology of shorebirds is closely associated with the temperature conditions on breeding ground, the effects of which can vary among reproductive traits and among sympatric species.

Interaction webs in arctic ecosystems: Determinants of arctic change?

How species interact modulate their dynamics, their response to environmental change, and ultimately the functioning and stability of entire communities. Work conducted at Zackenberg, Northeast Greenland, has changed our view on how networks of arctic biotic interactions are structured, how they vary in time, and how they are changing with current environmental change: firstly, the high arctic interaction webs are much more complex than previously envisaged, and with a structure mainly dictated by its arthropod component. Secondly, the dynamics of species within these webs reflect changes in environmental conditions. Thirdly, biotic interactions within a trophic level may affect other trophic levels, in some cases ultimately affecting land-atmosphere feedbacks. Finally, differential responses to environmental change may decouple interacting species. These insights form Zackenberg emphasize that the combination of long-term, ecosystem-based monitoring, and targeted research projects offers the most fruitful basis for understanding and predicting the future of arctic ecosystems.