Age assessment by Demirjian's development stages of the third molar: a systematic review

Comparison of original and new South African formulae for age estimation in African Black and white children and adolescents using dental and hand-wrist methods

BACKGROUND

Methods for age estimation in children involve measurements of: (1) the projections of open apices and tooth heights (T), (2) the total area of the carpal bones and the epiphyses of the ulna and radius (HW), and (3) a combination of these parameters (THW). This study aimed to compare the accuracy of the original formulae for T, HW, and THW in Black South African (BSA) and White South African (WSA) samples of children and adolescents.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The sample comprised 556 subjects, 164 BSA (71 males and 93 females) and 392 WSA (171 males and 221 females) aged 6 to 16 years. The main sample comprised 556 subjects and was divided into two parts. The first part was used to develop new formulae specific to the South African population, while the second part, consisting of 183 subjects and referred to as the test sample, was used to evaluate the accuracy of these formulae and to quantify their uncertainty when applied to real cases. Adjusted R2 and standard errors of the estimate (SEEs) were calculated for each regression model. The mean absolute difference or error (MAE) between estimated and chronological age and the percentage of individuals within specific age ranges of ± 0.25, ± 0.5, ± 1, and ± 2 years of chronological age was used to compare the accuracy of formulae.

RESULTS

Teeth showed the most significant underestimation in the training sample, -0.49 years in males and - 0.29 years in females, as much as -0.70 years in WSA males, while BSA males were overestimated by + 0.03 years. Combining teeth and hand-wrist, the new formula showed the best performance in age estimation compared to only teeth or hand-wrist, except in WSA males (-0.51 years). New South African-specific formula improved accuracy, especially in males, suggesting their suitability alongside the original Cameriere et al. methods for precise age estimation.

CONCLUSION

The original regression formulae by Cameriere et al., along with the newly developed formulaespecific to South African populations, shows promise for age estimation, considering potential estimation errors and the accuracy rates demonstrated in this study.

Radiologic assessment of third molar development and cervical vertebral maturation to validate age of majority in a Mexican population

An increase in irregular migration flows has further raised the importance of age estimation in forensic science. To improve the reliability of age of majority determination, one recommendation is to combine the evaluation of third molar development with age-related skeletal information. In the present study, we assessed mandibular third molar development and cervical vertebral maturation to evaluate the ability of these age indicators, alone and in combination, to accurately identify individuals 18 years of age or older. The study sample comprised 123 multi-slice computed tomography images of Mexican individuals (67 males and 56 females) aged between 14 and 22 years. Demirjian's stages of tooth development and Baccetti's stages of vertebral maturation were used. A fully developed mandibular third molar (stage H) indicated adult age with 100% certainty. However, around 70% of individuals older than 18 years had third molars that had not yet completed their development. Thus, immature third molars do not rule out the possibility that an individual has reached the age of majority. In the study sample, the combination of the maturity stages of teeth 38 and 48 or their combination with the cervical stages of maturation did not improve upon the prediction accuracy of either of the mandibular third molars alone (area under the ROC curve > 0.85). Therefore, these findings highlight the need to identify other complementary age estimation methods that minimize the number of false negatives (i.e., adults classified as minors) obtained with assessment of third molar development alone.

A probability model for estimating age in young individuals relative to key legal thresholds: 15, 18 or 21-year

Age estimations are relevant for pre-trial detention, sentencing in criminal cases and as part of the evaluation in asylum processes to protect the rights and privileges of minors. No current method can determine an exact chronological age due to individual variations in biological development. This study seeks to develop a validated statistical model for estimating an age relative to key legal thresholds (15, 18, and 21 years) based on a skeletal (CT-clavicle, radiography-hand/wrist or MR-knee) and tooth (radiography-third molar) developmental stages. The whole model is based on 34 scientific studies, divided into examinations of the hand/wrist (15 studies), clavicle (5 studies), distal femur (4 studies), and third molars (10 studies). In total, data from approximately 27,000 individuals have been incorporated and the model has subsequently been validated with data from 5,000 individuals. The core framework of the model is built upon transition analysis and is further developed by a combination of a type of parametric bootstrapping and Bayesian theory. Validation of the model includes testing the models on independent datasets of individuals with known ages and shows a high precision with separate populations aligning closely with the model's predictions. The practical use of the complex statistical model requires a user-friendly tool to provide probabilities together with the margin of error. The assessment based on the model forms the medical component for the overall evaluation of an individual's age.

Evidence of Age Estimation Procedures in Forensic Dentistry: Results from an Umbrella Review

Background and objective: Age estimation is an important tool when dealing with human remains or undocumented minors. Although the skull, the skeleton or the hand-wrist are used in age estimation as maturity indicators, they often present a lack of good conditions for a correct identification or estimation. Few systematic reviews (SRs) have been recently published; therefore, this umbrella review critically assesses their level of evidence and provides a general, comprehensive view. Materials and methods: Considering the review question "What is the current evidence on age determination approaches in Forensic Dentistry?" an electronic database search was conducted in four databases (PubMed, Cochrane, WoS, LILACS) up to December 2022, focusing on SRs of age estimation through forensic dentistry procedures. The methodological quality was analyzed using the measurement tool to assess SRs criteria (AMSTAR2). Results: Eighteen SRs were included: five of critically low quality, six of low quality, three of moderate quality and four of high quality. The SRs posited that Willems' method is more accurate and less prone to overestimation; most methods seem to be geographically sensitive; and 3D-imaging and artificial intelligence tools demonstrate high potential. Conclusions: The quality of evidence on age estimation using dental approaches was rated as low to moderate. Well-designed clinical trials and high-standard systematic reviews are essential to corroborate the accuracy of the different procedures for age estimation in forensic dentistry.

Forensic Age Estimation: A Multifactorial Approach in a Retrospective Population Study

Objectives: The objective of this study was to evaluate the accuracy of forensic age estimation in a German population by combining clavicle and wisdom teeth assessments based on cone beam computed tomography (CT) data. The study aimed to determine the reliability of this approach in predicting biological age. Material and Methods: A total of 161 CT data sets from 120 males and 41 females with known exact ages were evaluated by three raters. The clavicle was assessed according to stages 1-5 (including substages 2a-c and 3a-c), and the Demirjian stage's classification method was used for the wisdom teeth. Inter-class correlation (ICC) was calculated to assess the agreement among the three raters. Additionally, ordinary least square regressions were performed to predict chronological age using the clavicle or one of the four teeth. Finally, age prediction models using multiple indicators were developed. Results: The ICCs ranged from 0.82 for the clavicle to 0.86 and 0.88 for the wisdom teeth. Linear estimation tended to overestimate chronological age, especially in subjects over 18 years old. The clavicle showed the strongest overestimation. Combining age estimation from the clavicle with the upper and lower wisdom teeth improved the predictive power, resulting in a 14% and 15% increase in R² for the upper and lower wisdom teeth, respectively. Adding more than one tooth to the prediction did not improve the predictive power (all ΔR² < 1%). Conclusions: Age estimation using CT can be significantly improved by combining information from the analysis of wisdom teeth with age estimation based on the clavicle.

How old are you? A systematic review investigating the relationship between age and mandibular third molar maturity

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVE

Radiographic evaluation of the maturity of mandibular third molars is a common method used for age estimation of adolescents and young adults. The aim of this systematic review was to examine the scientific base for the relationship between a fully matured mandibular third molar based on Demirjian's method and chronological age, in order to assess whether an individual is above or below the age of 18 years.

METHODS

The literature search was conducted in six databases until February 2022 for studies reporting data evaluating the tooth maturity using Demirjian´s method (specifically stage H) within populations ranging from 8 to 30 years (chronological age). Two reviewers screened the titles and abstracts identified through the search strategy independently. All studies of potential relevance according to the inclusion criteria were obtained in full text, after which they were assessed for inclusion by two independent reviewers. Any disagreement was resolved by a discussion. Two reviewers independently evaluated the risk of bias using the assessment tool QUADAS-2 and extracted the data from the studies with low or moderate risk of bias. Logistic regression was used to estimate the relationship between chronological age and proportion of subjects with a fully matured mandibular third molar (Demirjian´s tooth stage H).

RESULTS

A total of 15 studies with low or moderate risk of bias were included in the review. The studies were conducted in 13 countries and the chronological age of the investigated participants ranged from 3 to 27 years and the number of participants ranged between 208 and 5,769. Ten of the studies presented the results as mean age per Demirjian´s tooth stage H, but only five studies showed the distribution of developmental stages according to validated age. The proportion of subjects with a mandibular tooth in Demirjian´s tooth stage H at 18 years ranged from 0% to 22% among males and 0 to 16% in females. Since the studies were too heterogenous to perform a meta-analysis or a meaningful narrative review, we decided to refrain from a GRADE assessment.

CONCLUSION

The identified literature does not provide scientific evidence for the relationship between Demirjian´s stage H of a mandibular third molar and chronologic age in order to assess if an individual is under or above the age of 18 years.

Applicability of the London Atlas method in the East China population

BACKGROUND

Dental age estimation is important for developmental assessment and individual identification. The London Atlas, a recently proposed method for dental age estimation, has been reported to perform satisfactorily in various populations.

OBJECTIVE

In this study, we assessed the reproducibility, repeatability and applicability of the London Atlas method in the East China population and compared it with the Demirjian method.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We assessed panoramic radiographs of 835 pediatric patients ages 6.0-19.9 years using the London Atlas and the Demirjian method. We employed the intraclass correlation coefficient and Bland-Altman analysis to evaluate reproducibility and repeatability, respectively. We assessed the agreement between dental age and chronological age and calculated 95% and 80% prediction intervals for each dental age stage. Sensitivity, specificity and predictive values were calculated to assess the performance of both methods for identifying threshold ages.

RESULTS

The London Atlas has better reproducibility and repeatability (intraclass correlation coefficients: 0.98 and 0.99; 95% limits of agreement: - 1.34 to 1.56 and - 1.22 to 0.88, respectively). Dental age estimated using the London Atlas was closer to chronological age in both genders (median absolute error = 0.58). The 95% prediction intervals for chronological age were wide (0.99 to 9.89 years).

CONCLUSION

The London Atlas has excellent reproducibility and repeatability. Thus, it might offer an alternative method for developmental assessment. We observed considerable variation in dental development in the East China population, which needs further research.

Is the third molar erupting at a younger age than before?

OBJECTIVES

The aim of this study was to update the much-cited knowledge, published over half a century ago, of the age of eruption of the third molar in the Finnish population.

METHODS

The study followed a retrospective and cross-sectional protocol and included 710 digital panoramic radiographs of patients (49.3% men, 50.7% women) aged 15-23 years visiting the public oral health care services of the City of Helsinki in 2015. Age and sex of the subjects were recorded. The radiographs were examined for inclination of the third molars in both jaws and vertically located teeth were further classified into four stages of eruption: (A) in bone, (B) alveolar emergence, (C) gingival emergence, and (D) complete emergence. Statistics included chi-squared, Mann-Whitney U, and median tests.

RESULTS

Of altogether 2502 third molars, 53.0% (n = 1325) were in vertical position. The median age of gingival emergence (stage C) of the third molar varied between 19.8 and 20.8 years, and the median age of reaching the occlusal level (stage D) between 20.8 and 21.8 years depending on sex and the jaw.

CONCLUSION

The median ages for the third molar to pierce the gum were lower than reported over half a century ago.

Accuracy of different dental age estimation methods for determining the legal majority of 18 years in the Turkish population

OBJECTIVES

Radiographic evaluation of the third molar maturation is used to estimate dental age, especially in adolescence. This study aimed to assess the application of three age estimation methods (Cameriere's third molar maturity index (I_3M), Demirjian's maturation stages, and The London Atlas) to determine whether an individual is 18 years or older (adult) or younger than 18 years (minor).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The dental age was estimated using the I_3M, Demirjian's maturation stages, and The London Atlas methods on panoramic radiograms of a total of 500 Turkish individuals aged 14-22 years. A logistic model was derived with an individual's adult or minor status as the dependent variable, and each method and sex as predictive variables. The adult status was determined using dental age estimation methods and the performance of these methods in differentiating adults from minors was evaluated. The three methods were compared case-wise for their accuracy in predicting adult status.

RESULTS

Logistic regression analysis showed that sex and each estimation method were statistically significant in discriminating adults and minors (p < 0.05). In the case-wise comparison for estimate adulthood, both Demirjian's stages and I_3M methods tended to perform better than the London Atlas method, with this trend reaching statistical significance (p < 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

Cameriere's I_3M and Demirjian's development stages are useful methods for adult age assessment in the tested population.

CLINICAL RELEVANCE

In forensic medicine and legal practices, Cameriere's I_3M and Demirjian's maturation stage methods based on the development of the third molar teeth can be used to determine whether an individual is a minor or an adult.

Forensic age assessment by 3.0 T MRI of the wrist: adaption of the Vieth classification

OBJECTIVES

In order to find a reliable method to correctly assess majority in both sexes by MRI, a study was conducted to evaluate the applicability of the recently presented Vieth classification in wrist MRI, after it had originally been proposed for knee MRI.

METHODS

After receiving a positive vote by the ethics committee, the left-hand wrists of 347 male and 348 female volunteers of German nationality in the age bracket 12-24 years were scanned. Before conducting the prospective, cross-sectional examinations, an informed consent was obtained from each volunteer. A 3.0 T MRI scanner was used, acquiring a T1 turbo spin-echo sequence (TSE) and a T2 TSE sequence with fat suppression by spectral presaturation with inversion recovery (SPIR). The images were assessed by applying the Vieth classification. Minimum, maximum, mean ± standard deviation, and median with lower and upper quartiles were defined. Intra- and interobserver agreements were determined by calculating the kappa coefficients. Differences between the sexes were analyzed using the Mann-Whitney U test.

RESULTS

By applying the unmodified Vieth classification with corresponding schematics, it was possible to assess majority in both sexes via the epiphyseal-diaphyseal fusion of the distal radius and in males also via the epiphyseal-diaphyseal fusion of the distal ulna. The Mann-Whitney U test implied significant sex-related differences for all stages. For both epiphyses, the intra- and interobserver agreement levels were very good (κ > 0.8).

CONCLUSION

If confirmed by further studies, it would be possible to determine the completion of the 18th year of life in both sexes by 3.0 T MRI of the wrist and using the Vieth classification.

KEY POINTS

• The Vieth classification allows determining majority in males and females alike based on the distal radius' epiphysis by 3.0 T MRI of the wrist. • The Vieth classification also allows determining majority in males based on the distal ulna's epiphysis by 3.0 T MRI of the wrist, but not in females. • The presented data can be deemed referential within certain discussed boundaries.

A probability model for assessing age relative to the 18-year old threshold based on magnetic resonance imaging of the knee combined with radiography of third molars in the lower jaw

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to generate a statistical model based on magnetic resonance imaging of the knee and radiography of third molars in the lower jaw, for assessing age relative to the 18-year old threshold.

METHODS

In total, 58 studies correlating knee or tooth development to age were assessed, 5 studies for knee and 7 studies for tooth were included in the statistical model. The relation between the development of the anatomical site, based on a binary system, and age were estimated using logistic regression. Separate meta-populations for knee and tooth were generated from the individual based data for men and women. A weighted estimate of probabilities was made by combining the probability densities for knee and tooth. Margin of errors for males and females in different age groups and knee and tooth maturity were calculated within the larger framework of transition analysis using a logit model as a base. Evidentiary values for combinations of knee and tooth maturity were evaluated with likelihood ratios.

RESULTS

For males, the sensitivity for the method was calculated to 0.78 (probability of correctly classifying adults), the specificity 0.90 (probability of correctly classifying minors), the negative predictive value 0.80 (proportion identified minors are minors) and the positive predictive value 0.89 (proportion identified adults are adults) indicating a model better at identifying minors than adults. The point at which half the female population has reached closed knee lies before the 18-year threshold, adding the knee as an indicator lowers specificity and increases sensitivity. The sensitivity when using tooth as an indicator for females is 0.24 and specificity 0.97, signifying few minors misclassified as adults but also a low probability of identifying adults. The negative predictive value for women when using tooth as the sole indicator is 0.56 and positive predictive value 0.88. Probabilities were calculated for males and females assuming a uniform age distribution between 15 and 21years. The calculated margin of error of minors classified as adults in a population between 15 and 21 years with the model was 11% for males and 12% for females. Further, the evidentiary value as well as margin of error vary for different combinations of knee and tooth maturity.

CONCLUSION

The statistical model based on the combination of MRI knee and radiography of mandibular third molars is a valid method to assess age relative to the 18-year old threshold when applied on males and of limited value in females.

The impact of age mimicry bias on the accuracy of methods for age estimation based on Kvaal's pulp/tooth ratios: a bootstrap study

INTRODUCTION

Methods based on pulp/tooth ratios proposed by Kvaal et al. (1995) have been widely used for age estimation in adults. The tendency of age estimates to mimic the age structure of the reference population, i.e. age mimicry bias, is a possible source of controversy in the results of studies. The primary objective of the present study was to evaluate the effect of age mimicry bias on the accuracy of the original Kvaal's method and its recent modification proposed by Roh et al. (2018).

METHOD AND MATERIAL

The study sample comprised 240 cone-beam computed tomography scans of an Iranian population. The bootstrap procedure was used to study the impact of age mimicry bias on age estimates by constructing reference populations with different age structures. The accuracy of Kvaal's and Roh's variables for age estimation was assessed using a twofold cross-validation technique and principal component analysis.

RESULTS

The application of original equations resulted in SEE values highly greater than the acceptable threshold for forensic purposes (10 years). The population-specific equations obtained SEE values of 9.18, 11.03, and 9.22 years using Kvaal's variables and 9.19, 11.13, and 9.14 years using Roh's variable for the maxillary, mandibular, and all teeth, respectively. The bootstrap procedure revealed that using uneven reference populations to formulate the equation resulted in significantly greater SEEs (almost all >10 years) that were not acceptable for forensic purposes. Moreover, using an older (a younger) reference population contributed to a sharp rise in the amount of over- (under-) estimation for younger (older) age groups.

CONCLUSION

Age mimicry bias had an undesirable impact on the accuracy of dental age estimation based on Kvaal's and Roh's methods. The accuracy of the original equations was low for age estimation in the Iranian sample. However, the performance of the population-specific equations was reasonably acceptable for the maxillary and all six teeth.

Comparison of the third molar maturity index (I3M) between left and right lower third molars to assess the age of majority: a multi-ethnic study sample

The diagnostic accuracy of the I_3M to assess the legal age of 18 years has already been tested in several specific-population samples. The left lower third molar has been extensively used for discriminating between minors and adults. This research aimed to compare the usefulness of lower third molar maturity indexes, from both left and right side (I_3ML and I_3MR), in samples originating from four distinct continents in order to examine possible differences in their accuracy values. For this purpose, a sample of 10,181 orthopantomograms (OPGs), from Europe, Africa, Asia and America, was analysed and previously scored in other studies. The samples included healthy subjects with no systemic disorders with both third molars and clear depicted root apices. Wilcoxon Signed Rank test for left and right asymmetry did not show any significant differences. Data about sensitivity, specificity, predictive values, likelihood ratio and accuracy were pooled together and showed similar results for I_3ML and I_3MR, respectively. In addition, all these quantities were high when only the I_3MR was considered to discriminate between adults and minors. The present referable database was the first to pool third molar measurements using panoramic radiographs of subjects coming from different continents. The results highlighted that both I_3ML and I_3MR are reliable indicators for assessing the legal age of 18 years old in those jurisdictions where this legal threshold has been set as the age of majority.

Study of the ethnicity's influence on the third molar maturity index (I3M) for estimating age of majority in living juveniles and young adults

Estimation of age of majority has important applications in the forensic daily practice because of the increasing demand for age estimates of unaccompanied minors. Diagnostic accuracy of I_3M to assess legal adult age of 18 years has been already tested in several specific population samples. The aim of this work was to compare the available data about sensitivity and specificity of the third molar maturity index (I_3M) from five different regional groups' radiographic samples to study possible ethnical difference. For this purpose, a sample of 6157 orthopantomograms (OPGs), coming from 15 countries, was analysed. Data about sensitivity and specificity were pooled using a bivariate modelling approach. The one-way MANOVA analysis was applied to assess the likelihood that sensitivity and specificity of the five regional groups are sampled from the same population. The result of the one-way MANOVA showed that both sensitivity and specificity did not depend from the regional groups. The obtained sensitivity was 84% (95% CI: 82% and 85%), and its specificity was 94% (95% CI: 93% and 95%). Based on these results, the I_3M was a useful statistical tool to identify whether a subject has reached the legal age of 18 years old, regardless of his or her ethnicity.

A new model of classification of third molars development and its correlation with chronological age in a Brazilian subpopulation

The present study correlated the mineralization of third molars to chronological age using a modified classification based on Demirjian's stages in a Brazilian subpopulation and compared with the original classification. A total of 1082 patients with age ranging from 6 to 26 years were included in the sample, with at least one third molar on panoramic radiographs. The third molars were classified according to the original Demirjian classification (8 stages) and a new model based on the Demirjian method, where the original stages were grouped into four stages: AB-enamel mineralization; CD-crown dentin mineralization; EFG-root formation; and H-complete development. Statistical analyses were performed by Kruskal-Wallis/Dunn tests (α = 0.05) and the multinomial logistic regression model. Data were analyzed according to percentiles for the probability of an individual being over 18 years old. The mean ages of the stages in both classifications did not present a significant difference between superior and inferior arches (p < 0.05). The differences in mean ages between all the stages of mineralization were statistically significant (p < 0.001) only for the 4-stage classification. Males attained root formation and complete formation earlier than females (p < 0.05) in the 4-stage classification. The modified classification system showed dependence between chronological age and mineralization stages of third molars, simplifying the age estimation process. At stage H, females present a 95.7% chance of being over 18, while for males, this probability is 89.6%. This modified classification system simplifies the dental age estimation process based on third molars and can be used as a reference for future studies.