Temperature changes between neighboring days and childhood asthma: a seasonal analysis in Shanghai, China

The effects of temperature variation on obstructive pulmonary dysfunction and small airway dysfunction in asthmatic children: A continuous eight-year study in Jinan, China

Childhood asthma is increasingly prevalent globally, leading to a significant disease burden with rising incidence and greater healthcare demands. However, previous research has primarily focused on the impact of temperature variation on hospital visits of childhood asthma, with limited evidence on the effects of lung function parameters. In this continuous eight-year study, we investigated the impact of temperature variation on obstructive pulmonary dysfunction and small airway dysfunction in asthmatic children during summer and winter in Jinan, China. The temperature variation was defined as temperature change between two neighboring days (TCN). Generalized linear models (GLM) were employed to explore associations between temperature variation and obstructive pulmonary ventilation dysfunction, small airway dysfunction and pulmonary function parameters. Results indicated a heightened risk of obstructive pulmonary dysfunction associated with temperature variation, with ORs of 1.103 (95% CI: 1.002, 1.212) for per 1 °C increase in TCN in summer and 1.109 (95% CI: 1.000, 1.221) for per 1 °C decrease in winter. Similar results were found for small airway dysfunctions, indicating a consistent pattern of risk associated with temperature variation. Additionally, TCN was associated with a statistically significant decline in several lung function parameters, including FEV1/VCmax, FEV1/FVC, MEF25, MEF50 and MMEF in winter. The subgroup analysis by gender revealed that the harmful effects of temperature variation were more pronounced in females during summer and in males during winter. In conclusion, this study found that temperature variation posed significant impacts on the lung function of asthmatic children, which highlighted the need for adaptation strategies to mitigate adverse effects of climate change on children's respiratory health, such as avoiding outdoor activities during significant temperature fluctuations.

The correlation between daily temperature, diurnal temperature range, and asthma hospital admissions in Lanzhou city, 2013-2020

BACKGROUND

With the backdrop of global climate change, the impact of climate change on respiratory diseases like asthma is receiving increasing attention. However, the effects of temperature and diurnal temperature range (DTR) on asthma are complex, and understanding these effects across different seasons, age groups, and sex is of utmost importance.

METHODS

This study utilized asthma hospitalization data from Lanzhou, China, and implemented a distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) to investigate the relationship between temperature and DTR and asthma hospitalizations. It considered differences in the effects across various seasons and population subgroups.

RESULTS

The study revealed that low temperatures immediately increase the risk of asthma hospitalization (RR = 1.2010, 95% CI: 1.1464, 1.2580), and this risk persists for a period of time. Meanwhile, both high and low DTR were associated with an increased risk of asthma hospitalization. Lower temperatures (RR = 2.9798, 95% CI: 1.1154, 7.9606) were associated with higher asthma risk in the warm season, while in the cold season, the risk significantly rose for the general population (RR = 3.6867, 95% CI: 1.7494, 7.7696), females (RR = 7.2417, 95% CI: 2.7171, 19.3003), and older individuals (RR = 18.5425, 95% CI: 5.1436, 66.8458). In the warm season, low DTR conditions exhibited a significant association with asthma hospitalization risk in males (RR = 7.2547, 95% CI: 1.2612, 41.7295) and adults aged 15-64 (RR = 9.9494, 95% CI: 2.2723, 43.5643). Children also exhibited noticeable risk within specific DTR ranges. In the cold season, lower DTR increases the risk of asthma hospitalization for the general population (RR = 3.1257, 95% CI: 1.4004, 6.9767). High DTR significantly increases the risk of asthma hospitalization in adults (RR = 5.2563, 95% CI: 2.4131, 11.4498).

CONCLUSION

This study provides crucial insights into the complex relationship between temperature, DTR, and asthma hospitalization, highlighting the variations in asthma risk across different seasons and population subgroups.

Investigating the impact of extreme weather events and related indicators on cardiometabolic multimorbidity

BACKGROUND

The impact of weather on human health has been proven, but the impact of extreme weather events on cardiometabolic multimorbidity (CMM) needs to be urgently explored.

OBJECTIVES

Investigating the impact of extreme temperature, relative humidity (RH), and laboratory testing parameters at admission on adverse events in CMM hospitalizations.

DESIGNS

Time-stratified case-crossover design.

METHODS

A distributional lag nonlinear model with a time-stratified case-crossover design was used to explore the nonlinear lagged association between environmental factors and CMM. Subsequently, unbalanced data were processed by 1:2 propensity score matching (PSM) and conditional logistic regression was employed to analyze the association between laboratory indicators and unplanned readmissions for CMM. Finally, the previously identified environmental factors and relevant laboratory indicators were incorporated into different machine learning models to predict the risk of unplanned readmission for CMM.

RESULTS

There are nonlinear associations and hysteresis effects between temperature, RH and hospital admissions for a variety of CMM. In addition, the risk of admission is higher under low temperature and high RH conditions with the addition of particulate matter (PM, PM2.5 and PM10) and O3_8h. The risk is greater for females and adults aged 65 and older. Compared with first quartile (Q1), the fourth quartile (Q4) had a higher association between serum calcium (HR = 1.3632, 95% CI: 1.0732 ~ 1.7334), serum creatinine (HR = 1.7987, 95% CI: 1.3528 ~ 2.3958), fasting plasma glucose (HR = 1.2579, 95% CI: 1.0839 ~ 1.4770), aspartate aminotransferase/ alanine aminotransferase ratio (HR = 2.3131, 95% CI: 1.9844 ~ 2.6418), alanine aminotransferase (HR = 1.7687, 95% CI: 1.2388 ~ 2.2986), and gamma-glutamyltransferase (HR = 1.4951, 95% CI: 1.2551 ~ 1.7351) were independently and positively associated with unplanned readmission for CMM. However, serum total bilirubin and High-Density Lipoprotein (HDL) showed negative correlations. After incorporating environmental factors and their lagged terms, eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) demonstrated a more prominent predictive performance for unplanned readmission of CMM patients, with an average area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.767 (95% CI:0.7486 ~ 0.7854).

CONCLUSIONS

Extreme cold or wet weather is linked to worsened adverse health effects in female patients with CMM and in individuals aged 65 years and older. Moreover, meteorologic factors and environmental pollutants may elevate the likelihood of unplanned readmissions for CMM.

Effect of extreme temperatures on asthma hospital visits: Modification by event characteristics and healthy behaviors

Although ambient temperature has been linked to asthma exacerbation, impacts associated with extreme temperature events remain unclear. This study aims to identify the events characteristics that elevate risk of asthma hospital visits, and to assess whether healthy behavior changes due to the COVID-19 prevention and control policy may modify the relationships. Data of asthma hospital visits from all medical facilities in Shenzhen, China during 2016-2020 were assessed in relation to extreme temperature events using a distributed lag model. Stratified analysis was conducted by gender, age and hospital department to identify susceptible populations. Through events defined by various duration days and temperature thresholds, we explored the modification by events intensity, length, occurrence time and healthy behaviors. The cumulative relative risk of asthma during heat waves compared to other days was 1.06 (95%CI: 1.00-1.13) and for cold spells was 1.17 (95%CI: 1.05-1.30), and that of males and school-aged children were generally higher than other sub-groups. There were significant effects of heat waves and cold spells on asthma hospital visits when the mean temperature was above 90th percentile (30 °C) and below 10th percentile (14 °C) respectively, and the relative risks were higher when events lasted longer, became stronger, occurred in daytime and in early summer or winter. During the healthy behaviors maintaining period, the risk of heat waves increased whilst the risk of cold spells reduced. Extreme temperatures may pose considerable impact on asthma and the health effect can be modified by the event characteristics and anti-epidemic healthy behaviors. Strategies of asthma control should consider the heightened threats of the intense and frequent extreme temperature events in the context of climate change.

Climate and human health: a review of publication trends in the International Journal of Biometeorology

The climate-health nexus is well documented in the field of biometeorology. Since its inception, Biometeorology has in many ways become the umbrella under which much of this collaborative research has been conducted. Whilst a range of review papers have considered the development of biometeorological research and its coverage in this journal, and a few have reviewed the literature on specific diseases, none have focused on the sub-field of climate and health as a whole. Since its first issue in 1957, the International Journal of Biometeorology has published a total of 2183 papers that broadly consider human health and its relationship with climate. In this review, we identify a total of 180 (8.3%, n = 2183) of these papers that specifically focus on the intersection between meteorological variables and specific, named diagnosable diseases, and explore the publication trends thereof. The number of publications on climate and health in the journal increases considerably since 2011. The largest number of publications on the topic was in 2017 (18) followed by 2021 (17). Of the 180 studies conducted, respiratory diseases accounted for 37.2% of the publications, cardiovascular disease 17%, and cerebrovascular disease 11.1%. The literature on climate and health in the journal is dominated by studies from the global North, with a particular focus on Asia and Europe. Only 2.2% and 8.3% of these studies explore empirical evidence from the African continent and South America respectively. These findings highlight the importance of continued research on climate and human health, especially in low- and lower-middle-income countries, the populations of which are more vulnerable to climate-sensitive illnesses.

Hospital admission tendencies caused by day-to-day temperature changes during summer: a case study for the city of Novi Sad (Serbia)

Increased temperature risk in cities threatens the health and well-being of urban population and is fueled by climate change and intensive urbanization. Consequently, further steps must be taken for assessing temperature conditions in cities and their association with public health, in order to improve public health prevention at local or regional level. This study contributes to solving the problems by analyzing the connection between extreme temperatures and the tendencies of all-cause hospital admissions. The analyses used (a) 1-h air temperature data, and (b) daily data of all-cause hospital admissions. The datasets include the summer period (June, July, August) for the years 2016 and 2017. We tested the effects of two temperature indices, day-to-day change in maximum temperature - T_max,c and daily temperature range - T_r, with all-cause hospital admission subgroups, such as all-cause cases - H_a, hospital admissions in the population below 65 - H_a<65, and hospital admissions in the population aged 65 and over - H_a≥65. The results show the highest values of H_a when T_max,c is between 6 and 10 °C. Therefore, more intensive hospital admissions can be expected when T_max increases from day-to-day (positive values of T_max,c), and it is more visible for H_a and H_a<65 (1 °C = 1% increase in hospital admissions). Also, T_r values between 10 °C and 14 °C cause an increase in the number of hospital admissions, and it is more noticeable for H_a≥65.

Seasonal characteristics of ambient temperature variation (DTR, TCN, and TV0-t) and air pollutants on childhood asthma attack in a dry and cold city in China

Very few researches have concentrated on a variety of time scales to evaluate the association between temperature variation (TV) and childhood asthma (CA), and the evidence for the interaction of air pollutants on this association is lacking. In this study, we aim to estimate the relative risks (RRs) of CA due to TV by following metrics: diurnal temperature range (DTR), temperature changes between neighboring days (TCN), and temperature variability (TV_0-t); to quantify the seasonal attributable fraction (AF) and number (AN) of CA due to TV; to examine the interactive effects of the TV and air pollutants on CA in different seasons. We mainly applied distributed lagged nonlinear model (DLNM) and conditional Poisson models to evaluate the associations between TV and outpatient visits for CA during 2014-2019 in Lanzhou, China. Additionally, the bivariate response surface model was used to examine the interplay effect of air pollutants. We found that in warm season, the risks of DTR maximum at lag5 (RR = 1.073, 95% CI: 1.017-1.133); TCN showed protective effect. In cold season, the risks of DTR peaked at lag8 (RR = 1.063, 95% CI: 1.027-1.100); the risks of TCN maximum at lag0 (RR = 1.058 95% CI: 1.009-1.109); the estimation of total cases maximized at TV_0-4 in cold season (RR = 1.039 at TV_0-3, 95% CI: 1.001, 1.077) and was the lowest at TV_0-1 in warm season (RR = 0.999, 95% CI: 0.969, 1.030). In addition, the response surface model graphically pictured ambient air pollutants enhanced the DTR/TV_0-4-CA effect for girls. In conclusion, the RRs of CA are markedly increased by TV exposure, particularly during the colder months. A combined evaluation of DTR, TCN, TV_0-5∼TV_0-6, NO₂, SO₂, and PM_2.5 should be used to identify the adverse effects of TV on CA.

Asthma triggered by extreme temperatures: From epidemiological evidence to biological plausibility

BACKGROUND

There is rapidly growing evidence indicating that extreme temperature is a crucial trigger and potential activator of asthma; however, the effects of extreme temperature on asthma are inconsistently reported and the its potential mechanisms remain undefined.

OBJECTIVES

This review aims to estimate the impacts of extreme heat, extreme cold, and temperature variations on asthma by systematically summarizing the existing studies from epidemiological evidence to biological plausibility.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic search in PubMed, Embase, and Web of Science from inception to June 30, 2022, and we retrieved articles of epidemiology and biological studies which assessed associations between extreme temperatures and asthma. This protocol was registered with PROSPERO (CRD42021273613).

RESULTS

From 12,435 identified records, 111 eligible studies were included in the qualitative synthesis, and 37 articles were included in the meta-analysis (20 for extreme heat, 16 for extreme cold, and 15 for temperature variations). For epidemiological evidence, we found that the synergistic effects of extreme temperatures, indoor/outdoor environments, and individual vulnerabilities are important triggers for asthma attacks, especially when there is extreme heat or cold. Meta-analysis further confirmed the associations, and the pooled relative risks for asthma attacks in extreme heat and extreme cold were 1.07 (95%CI: 1.03-1.12) and 1.20 (95%CI: 1.12-1.29), respectively. Additionally, this review discussed the potential inflammatory mechanisms behind the associations between extreme temperatures and asthma exacerbation, and highlighted the regulatory role of immunological pathways and transient receptor potential ion channels in asthma triggered by extreme temperatures.

CONCLUSIONS

We concluded that both extreme heat and cold could significantly increase the risk of asthma. Additionally, we proposed a potential mechanistic framework, which is important for understanding the disease pathogenesis that uncovers the complex mechanisms of asthma triggered by extreme temperatures and protects the sensitive individuals from impacts of extreme weather events and climate change.

Health effect of temperature change on respiratory diseases in opposite phase in semi-arid region

The impact of temperature variation on health has attracted increasing attention under global climate change. A distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) was performed to estimate the risk of two indicators of temperature change (diurnal temperature range (DTR) and temperature change between neighboring days (TCN)) on respiratory hospital visits in Lanzhou, a semi-arid climate city in western China from 2012 to 2018. The whole year is divided into two different temperature change periods according to the TCN of each solar term. The results showed that extreme high DTR can apparently enlarge respiratory risk, and it indicated strong cumulative relative risk (RR) in the temperature drop period. Extreme low TCN had strong adverse effects on respiratory diseases especially in temperature rise period, with the greatest RR of 1.068 (95% CI 1.004, 1.136). The effect of extreme high TCN was more obvious in temperature drop period, with a RR of 1.082 (95% CI 1.021, 1.148) at lag 7. Females were more affected by extreme temperature changes. Young people were more vulnerable to DTR, while TCN has a greater impact on the elderly.

The modification of air particulate matter on the relationship between temperature and childhood asthma hospitalization: An exploration based on different interaction strategies

The influence of temperature on childhood asthma was self-evident, yet the issue of whether the relationship will be synergized by air pollution remains unclear. The study aimed to investigate whether the relationship between short-term temperature exposure and childhood asthma hospitalization was modified by particulate matter (PM). Data on childhood asthma hospitalization, meteorological factors, and air pollutants during 2013-2016 in Hefei, China, were collected. First, a basic Poisson regression model combined with a distributed lag nonlinear model was used to assess the temperature-childhood asthma hospitalization relationship. Then, two interactive strategies were applied to explore the modification effect of PM on the temperature-childhood asthma hospitalization association. We found a greater effect of cold (5th percentile of temperature) on asthma during days with higher PM_2.5 (RR: 2.16, 95% CI: 1.38, 3.38) or PM₁₀ (RR: 1.87, 95% CI:1.20, 2.91) than that during days with lower PM_2.5 (RR: 1.64, 95% CI: 1.06, 2.54) or PM₁₀ (RR: 1.52, 95% CI: 0.98, 2.36). In addition, we observed a greater modification effect of PM_2.5 on the cold-asthma association than did PM₁₀, with a per 10 μg/m³ increase in PM_2.5 and PM₁₀ associated with increases of 0.065 and 0.025 for the RR corresponding to the 5th temperature percentile, respectively. For the temperature-related AF, moderate cold showed the largest change magnitude with the PM levels rising compared with other temperature ranges. For the subgroup, Females and those aged 6-18 years were more sensitive to the modification effect of PM_2.5 or PM₁₀ on the cold-asthma association. Our findings demonstrated that particulate matter could modify the associations between temperature and childhood asthma hospitalization.

Thunderstorms, Pollen, and Severe Asthma in a Midwestern, USA, Urban Environment, 2007-2018

BACKGROUND

Previous research has shown an association between individual thunderstorm events in the presence of high pollen, commonly called thunderstorm asthma, and acute severe asthma events, but little work has studied risk over long periods of time, using detailed measurements of storms and pollen.

METHODS

We estimated change in risk of asthma-related emergency room visits related to thunderstorm asthma events in the Minneapolis-St. Paul metropolitan area over the years 2007-2018. We defined thunderstorm asthma events as daily occurrence of two or more lightning strikes during high pollen periods interpolating weather and pollen monitor data and modeling lightning counts. We acquired daily counts of asthma-related emergency department visits from the Minnesota Hospital Association and used a quasi-Poisson time-series regression to estimate overall relative risk of emergency department visits during thunderstorm asthma events.

RESULTS

We observed a 1.047 times higher risk (95% CI:1.012,1.083) of asthma-related emergency department visits on the day of thunderstorm asthma event. Our findings are robust to adjustment for temperature, humidity, wind, precipitation, ozone, PM2.5, day of week, and seasonal variation in asthma cases. Occurrence of lightning alone or pollen alone showed no association with risk of severe asthma. A two-stage analysis combining individual zip code level results shows similar RR and we see no evidence of spatial correlation or spatial heterogeneity of effect.

DISCUSSION

Our results support an association between co-occurrence of lightning and pollen and risk of severe asthma events. Our approach incorporates lightning and pollen data and small-spatial area exposure and outcome counts.

Association of childhood asthma with intra-day and inter-day temperature variability in Shanghai, China

OBJECTIVES

Short-term temperature variability (TV) is associated with the exacerbation of asthma, but little is known about the relative effects of intra- and inter-day TV. We aimed to assess the relative impacts of intra- and inter-day TV on childhood asthma and to explore the modification effects by season.

METHODS

A quasi-Poisson generalized linear regression model combined with a distributed lag nonlinear model was adopted to evaluate the nonlinear and lagged effects of TV on childhood asthma in Shanghai from 2009 to 2017. Intra- and inter-day TV was measured with diurnal temperature range (DTR) and temperature changes between neighboring days (TCN), respectively.

RESULTS

Increased DTR was associated with the elevated relative risk (RR) of daily outpatient visits for childhood asthma (DOVCA) in both the whole year (RR_lag0-14 for the 99th percentile: 1.264, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.052, 1.518) and cold season (RR_lag0-12 for the 99th percentile: 1.411, 95% CI: 1.053, 1.889). Higher TCN in the warm season was associated with the increased RR of DOVCA (RR_lag0-14 for the 99th percentile: 2.964, 95% CI: 1.636, 5.373). The number and fraction of DOVCA attributed to an interquartile range (IQR) increase of TCN were higher than those attributed to DTR in both the whole year period and warm season. However, the number and fraction of DOVCA attributed to an IQR increase of DTR were greater than those attributed to TCN in the cold season.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results provide novel evidence that both intra- and inter-day TV might be a trigger of childhood asthma. Higher DTR appeared to have greater impacts on childhood asthma in the cold season while an increase in TCN seemed to have bigger effects in the warm season.

Low ambient temperature and temperature drop between neighbouring days and acute aortic dissection: a case-crossover study

AIMS

The incidence of acute aortic dissection (AAD) has been shown to have seasonal variation, but whether this variation can be explained by non-optimum ambient temperature and temperature change between neighbouring days (TCN) is not clear.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We performed a time-stratified case-crossover study in the Registry of Aortic Dissection in China covering 14 tertiary hospitals in 11 cities from 2009 to 2019. A total of 8182 cases of AAD were included. Weather data at residential address were matched from nearby monitoring stations. Conditional logistic regression model and distributed lag nonlinear model were used to estimate the associations of daily temperature and TCN with AAD, adjusting for possible confounders. We observed an increase of AAD risk with lower temperature cumulated over lag 0-1 day and this association became statistically significant when daily mean temperature was below 24°C. Relative to the referent temperature (28°C), the odds ratios (ORs) of AAD onset at extremely low (-10°C) and low (1°C) temperature cumulated over lag 0-1 day were 2.84 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.69, 4.75] and 2.36 (95% CI: 1.61, 3.47), respectively. A negative TCN was associated with increased risk of AAD. The OR of AAD cumulated over lag 0-6 days was 2.66 (95% CI: 1.76, 4.02) comparing the extremely negative TCN (-7°C) to no temperature change. In contrast, a positive TCN was associated with reduced AAD risk.

CONCLUSION

This study provides novel and robust evidence that low ambient temperature and temperature drop between neighbouring days were associated with increased risk of AAD onset.

KEY QUESTION

Incidence of acute aortic dissection (AAD) was reported to have seasonal trends, but it remains unclear whether non-optimum ambient temperature and temperature change between neighbouring days (TCN) is associated with AAD onset.

KEY FINDING

Daily mean temperature lower than 24°C was significantly associated with increased risk of AAD at lag 0-1 day. A negative TCN (temperature drop) was associated with increased risk of AAD, whereas a positive TCN was associated with decreased risk.

TAKE HOME MESSAGE

This multi-centre, case-crossover study provides novel and robust evidence that low ambient temperature and temperature drop between neighbouring days were associated with increased AAD risk.

Changes in the Frequency of Extreme Cooling Events in Winter over China and Their Relationship with Arctic Oscillation

Extreme weather and climate events are becoming increasingly frequent and have gained an increasing amount of attention. Extreme cooling (EC) events are a major challenge to socioeconomic sustainability and human health. Based on meteorological stations and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, this study analyzed the temporal and spatial distributions of EC events in winter in China by using the relative threshold and the relationship between EC events and the Arctic Oscillation (AO) index during the period of 1961–2017. The results show that the frequency of EC events in China decreased by 0.730 d in these 57 years, with a trend of −0.1 d/10 y. Northeast China had the highest frequency of EC events in winter, with an average of 4 d. In addition, EC events are significantly negatively correlated with the AO index in China, with a correlation coefficient of −0.5, and the AO index accounts for approximately 21% of the EC event variance. The strongest correlations are mainly located in Northwest China. Our research shows that significant changes in the mid–high latitude atmospheric circulation anomalies, which are associated with the AO, are responsible for EC events. These findings provide theoretical guidance for the prediction and simulation of EC events.

Effect of diurnal temperature change on cardiovascular risks differed under opposite temperature trends

Temperature change between neighboring days (TCN) is an important trigger for cardiovascular diseases, but the modulated effects by seasonal temperature trends have been barely taken into account. A quantified comparison between impacts of positive TCNs (temperature rise) and negative situations (temperature drop) is also needed. We evaluated the associations of TCNs with emergency room (ER) visits for coronary heart disease (CHD) and cerebral infarction (CI) in Beijing, China, from 2008 to 2012. A year was divided into two segments dominated by opposite temperature trends, quasi-Poisson regression with distributed lag nonlinear models estimating TCN-morbidity relations were employed, separately for each period. High morbidities of CHD and CI both occurred in transitional seasons accompanied by large TCNs. Under warming backgrounds, positive TCNs increased CHD risk in patients younger than 65 years, and old people showed limited sensitivity. In the cooling periods, negative TCNs induced CHD risk in females and the elderly; the highest RR showed on lag 6 d. In particular, a same diurnal temperature decrease (e.g., - 2°C) induced greater RR (RR = 1.113, 95% CIs: 1.033-1.198) on old people during warming periods than cooling counterparts (RR = 1.055, 95% CIs: 1.011-1.100). Moreover, positive TCNs elevated CI risk regardless of background temperatures, and males were particularly vulnerable. Seasonal temperature trends modify TCN-cardiovascular morbidity associations significantly, which may provide new insights into the health impact of unstable weathers.