Prediction of early death in severe acute pancreatitis

Albumin infusion may decrease the mortality of hypoalbuminemia patients with severe acute pancreatitis: a retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

At present, the relationship between severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) and albumin infusion is not clear. We aimed to identify the impact of serum albumin on the prognosis of SAP and the association between albumin infusions and mortality for hypoalbuminemia patients.

METHODS

This was a retrospective cohort study that analyzed 1000 patients with SAP who were admitted to the First Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University between January 2010 and December 2021 using data from a prospectively maintained database. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was conducted to reveal the relationship between serum albumin within 1 week after admission and poor prognosis of SAP. Propensity score matching (PSM) analysis was adopted to evaluate the effect of albumin infusion for hypoalbuminemia patients with SAP.

RESULTS

The prevalence of hypoalbuminemia (≤ 30 g/L) was 56.9% within 1 week after admission. Multivariate logistic regression identified that age (OR: 1.02; 95% CI: 1.00-1.04; P = 0.012), serum urea (OR: 1.08; 95% CI: 1.04-1.12; P < 0.001), serum calcium (OR: 0.27; 95% CI: 0.14-0.50; P < 0.001), lowest albumin level within 1 week after admission (OR: 0.93; 95% CI: 0.89-0.97; P = 0.002), and APACHE II score ≥ 15 (OR: 1.73; 95% CI: 1.19-2.51; P = 0.004) were independently associated with mortality. The PSM analysis demonstrated that mortality (OR: 0.52, 95% CI: 0.29-0.92, P = 0.023) was less common in albumin-infused than non-albumin-infused hypoalbuminemia patients. In subgroup analyses, doses > 100 g within 1 week after admission for hypoalbuminemia patients with albumin infusions was associated with lower mortality than doses ≤ 100 g (OR: 0.51, 95% CI: 0.28-0.90, P = 0.020).

CONCLUSIONS

Hypoalbuminemia in early-stage SAP is significantly related to poor prognosis. However, albumin infusions could significantly decrease mortality in hypoalbuminemia patients with SAP. Additionally, infusing sufficient albumin within a week after admission may decrease mortality in hypoalbuminemia patients.

Prognostic performance of the NRS2002, NUTRIC, and modified NUTRIC to identify high nutritional risk in severe acute pancreatitis patients

Background

Acute pancreatitis (AP) is the most common gastrointestinal disease requiring hospital admission. AP patients are categorized as mild, moderately severe, and severe AP (SAP). For SAP patients, malnutrition increases susceptibility to infection and mortality. The Nutritional Risk Screening 2002 (NRS 2002), the Nutrition Risk in Critically Ill (NUTRIC) score and modified Nutrition Risk in Critically Ill (mNUTRIC) are nutritional risk screening tools of critically ill patients and have not been validated in patients with SAP. It is essential to evaluate the prognostic performance of these nutritional risk screening tools.

Materials and methods

A retrospective study was designed to validate the NRS 2002, NUTRIC, and mNUTRIC when applied to SAP patients. Receiver operating characteristic curves were plotted to investigate the predictive ability of clinical outcomes by comparing areas under the curve (AUC). Appropriate cut-offs were calculated by using Youden's index. Patients were identified as being at high nutritional risk according to the calculated cut-off values. The effects of different scoring systems on mortalities were calculated using the Cox proportional hazards model. Logistic regression was used to assess the association between the energy provision and 28-day mortality.

Results

From January 2013 to December 2019, 234 SAP patients were included and analyzed. Patients categorized as high nutritional risk by the NRS 2002 (12.6% versus 1.9% for 28-day and 20.5% versus 3.7% for 90-day), NUTRIC (16.2% versus 0.0% for 28-day and 27.0% versus 0.0% for 90-day), and mNUTRIC (16.4% versus 0.0% for 28-day and 26.4% versus 0.8% for 90-day) had significant higher mortality than those categorized as low nutritional risk. The NUTRIC (AUC: 0.861 for 28-day mortality and 0.871 for 90-day mortality, both cut-off value ≥3) and mNUTRIC (AUC: 0.838 for 28-day and 0.828 for 90-day mortality, both cut-off value ≥3) showed better predictive ability of the 28- and 90-day mortality than the NRS 2002 (AUC: 0.706 for 28-day mortality and 0.695 for 90-day mortality, both cut-off value ≥5).

Conclusion

The NRS 2002, NUTRIC, and mNUTRIC scores were predictors for the 28- and 90-day mortalities. The NUTRIC and mNUTRIC showed better predictive ability compared with the NRS 2002 when applied to SAP patients.

Red Cell Distribution Width and Ratio of Red Cell Distribution Width-to-Total Serum Calcium as Predictors of Outcome of Acute Pancreatitis

Background

Current severity assessment scores of acute pancreatitis (AP) include multiple variables, the results of which are available only after 48 h of admission. Red cell distribution width (RDW) and total serum calcium (TSC) are simple routine parameters related to inflammatory status and results of which are readily available.

Aim

The aim of this study was to evaluate RDW and RDW: TSC within 24 h of hospital admission as predictors of outcome (severity and mortality) and intervention (medical/percutaneous drainage/surgical) required by patients of AP.

Materials and Methods

All the patients diagnosed with AP at a tertiary care hospital were enrolled for the study. Values of RDW and TSC along with data regarding the treatment given were collected. Diagnosis and severity were defined according to the revised Atlanta classification 2012.

Results and Interpretation

Cutoff value for RDW (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUROC]: 0.997; P = 0.000) to predict the severity of AP was 16.25% (sensitivity - 100% and specificity - 97.1%,) (sensitivity - 100% and specificity - 97.1%, positive predictive value - 92.31%, negative predictive value - 100%, and Youden Index - 0.971), while that of RDW:TSC (AUROC: 1; P = 0.000) was 2.42 (sensitivity - 100%; specificity - 100%, positive predictive value - 100%, negative predictive value - 100%, and Youden Index - 1.00). Similarly, the cutoff value for RDW (AUROC: 0.947; P = 0.000) to predict mortality in AP was 17.20% (sensitivity - 100%; specificity - 87.4%, positive predictive value - 38.89%, negative predictive value - 100%, and Youden Index - 0.874) and that of RDW-to-TSC ratio (AUROC: 0.975; P = 0.000) was 2.9 (sensitivity - 100%; specificity - 96.6%, positive predictive value - 70%, negative predictive value - 100%, and Youden Index - 0.966).

Conclusion

Our study found that RDW and RDW: TSC were quick, convenient, economic, sensitive, and dependable prognostic predictors of severity and mortality in patients with AP.

Machine learning-based in-hospital mortality prediction models for patients with acute coronary syndrome

OBJECTIVES

The purpose of this study is to identify the risk factors of in-hospital mortality in patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS) and to evaluate the performance of traditional regression and machine learning prediction models.

METHODS

The data of ACS patients who entered the emergency department of Fujian Provincial Hospital from January 1, 2017 to March 31, 2020 for chest pain were retrospectively collected. The study used univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis to identify risk factors for in-hospital mortality of ACS patients. The traditional regression and machine learning algorithms were used to develop predictive models, and the sensitivity, specificity, and receiver operating characteristic curve were used to evaluate the performance of each model.

RESULTS

A total of 6482 ACS patients were included in the study, and the in-hospital mortality rate was 1.88%. Multivariate logistic regression analysis found that age, NSTEMI, Killip III, Killip IV, and levels of D-dimer, cardiac troponin I, CK, N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol, and Stains were independent predictors of in-hospital mortality. The study found that the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the models developed by logistic regression, gradient boosting decision tree (GBDT), random forest, and support vector machine (SVM) for predicting the risk of in-hospital mortality were 0.884, 0.918, 0.913, and 0.896, respectively. Feature importance evaluation found that NT-proBNP, D-dimer, and Killip were top three variables that contribute the most to the prediction performance of the GBDT model and random forest model.

CONCLUSIONS

The predictive model developed using logistic regression, GBDT, random forest, and SVM algorithms can be used to predict the risk of in-hospital death of ACS patients. Based on our findings, we recommend that clinicians focus on monitoring the changes of NT-proBNP, D-dimer, Killip, cTnI, and LDH as this may improve the clinical outcomes of ACS patients.

Usefulness of Random Forest Algorithm in Predicting Severe Acute Pancreatitis

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

This study aimed to develop an interpretable random forest model for predicting severe acute pancreatitis (SAP).

METHODS

Clinical and laboratory data of 648 patients with acute pancreatitis were retrospectively reviewed and randomly assigned to the training set and test set in a 3:1 ratio. Univariate analysis was used to select candidate predictors for the SAP. Random forest (RF) and logistic regression (LR) models were developed on the training sample. The prediction models were then applied to the test sample. The performance of the risk models was measured by calculating the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves (AUC) and area under precision recall curve. We provide visualized interpretation by using local interpretable model-agnostic explanations (LIME).

RESULTS

The LR model was developed to predict SAP as the following function: -1.10-0.13×albumin (g/L) + 0.016 × serum creatinine (μmol/L) + 0.14 × glucose (mmol/L) + 1.63 × pleural effusion (0/1)(No/Yes). The coefficients of this formula were utilized to build a nomogram. The RF model consists of 16 variables identified by univariate analysis. It was developed and validated by a tenfold cross-validation on the training sample. Variables importance analysis suggested that blood urea nitrogen, serum creatinine, albumin, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, calcium, and glucose were the most important seven predictors of SAP. The AUCs of RF model in tenfold cross-validation of the training set and the test set was 0.89 and 0.96, respectively. Both the area under precision recall curve and the diagnostic accuracy of the RF model were higher than that of both the LR model and the BISAP score. LIME plots were used to explain individualized prediction of the RF model.

CONCLUSIONS

An interpretable RF model exhibited the highest discriminatory performance in predicting SAP. Interpretation with LIME plots could be useful for individualized prediction in a clinical setting. A nomogram consisting of albumin, serum creatinine, glucose, and pleural effusion was useful for prediction of SAP.

Association of lactate dehydrogenase with mortality in incident hemodialysis patients

BACKGROUND

Lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) plays a role in the glucose metabolism of the human body. Higher LDH levels have been linked to mortality in various cancer types; however, the relationship between LDH and survival in incident hemodialysis (HD) patients has not yet been examined. We hypothesized that higher LDH level is associated with higher death risk in these patients.

METHODS

We examined the association of baseline and time-varying serum LDH with all-cause, cardiovascular and infection-related mortality among 109 632 adult incident HD patients receiving care from a large dialysis organization in the USA during January 2007 to December 2011. Baseline and time-varying survival models were adjusted for demographic variables and available clinical and laboratory surrogates of malnutrition-inflammation complex syndrome.

RESULTS

There was a linear association between baseline serum LDH levels and all-cause, cardiovascular and infection-related mortality in both baseline and time-varying models, except for time-varying infection-related mortality. Adjustment for markers of inflammation and malnutrition attenuated the association in all models. In fully adjusted models, baseline LDH levels ≥360 U/L were associated with the highest risk of all-cause mortality (hazard ratios = 1.19, 95% confidence interval 1.14-1.25). In time-varying models, LDH >280 U/L was associated with higher death risk in all three hierarchical models for all-cause and cardiovascular mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Higher LDH level >280 U/L was incrementally associated with higher all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in incident dialysis patients, whereas LDH <240 U/L was associated with better survival. These findings suggest that the assessment of metabolic functions and monitoring for comorbidities may confer survival benefit to dialysis patients.

Long noncoding RNA H19 regulates the therapeutic efficacy of mesenchymal stem cells in rats with severe acute pancreatitis by sponging miR-138-5p and miR-141-3p

Background

Patients with severe acute pancreatitis (SAP), which is characterized by high morbidity and mortality, account for an increasing medical burden worldwide. We previously found that mesenchymal stem cells (MSCs) could attenuate SAP and that expression of long noncoding RNA H19 (LncRNA H19) was upregulated in rats receiving MSCs. In the present study, we investigated the mechanisms of LncRNA H19 regulating the therapeutic efficacy of MSCs in the alleviation of SAP.

Methods

MSCs transfected with LncRNA H19 overexpression and knockdown plasmids were intravenously injected into rats 12 h after sodium taurocholate (NaT) administration to induce SAP.

Results

Overexpressing LncRNA H19 in MSCs significantly enhanced the anti-inflammatory capacity of the MSCs, inhibited autophagy via promotion of focal adhesion kinase (FAK)-associated pathways, and facilitated cell proliferation by increasing the level of β-catenin in rats with SAP. LncRNA H19 functioned as a competing endogenous RNA by sponging miR-138-5p and miR-141-3p. Knocking down miR-138-5p in MSCs increased the expression of protein tyrosine kinase 2 (PTK2, encoding FAK) to suppress autophagy, while downregulating miR-141-3p enhanced the level of β-catenin to promote cell proliferation.

Conclusions

In conclusion, LncRNA H19 effectively increased the therapeutic efficacy of MSCs in rats with SAP via the miR-138-5p/PTK2/FAK and miR-141-3p/β-catenin pathways.

Initially elevated arterial lactate as an independent predictor of poor outcomes in severe acute pancreatitis

BACKGROUND

The present study aimed to investigate the relationships between arterial lactate levels and outcomes in severe acute pancreatitis.

METHODS

The study retrospectively analyzed the medical data of 329 patients with severe acute pancreatitis from January 2014 to February 2019. We compared baseline characteristics, laboratory data, severity scores, types of persistent organ failure, and primary and secondary outcomes of patients with and without elevated arterial lactate levels at admission. A multivariate logistic regression analysis model and receiver operating characteristic curve were adopted to evaluate the value of arterial lactate ≥4 mmol/L for identifying high-risk patients. Trends in arterial lactate levels were compared between patients in the survivor and nonsurvivor groups over a period of 7 days.

RESULTS

Compared to normal arterial lactate levels, patients with elevated arterial lactate levels show significantly higher incidences of multiple persistent organ failure (3% vs 30%, P < 0.01), death (2% vs 11%, P < 0.01), septic shock (4% vs 24%, P < 0.01), pancreatic infection (12% vs 37%, P < 0.01), abdominal compartment syndrome (3% vs 20%, P < 0.01), pancreatic necrosis (41% vs 63%, P < 0.01), and a need for ventilator support (26% vs 54%, P < 0.01). For predicting mortality, arterial lactate levels ≥4 mmol/L had a high hazard ratio (10, 95% CI; 3.7-27; P < 0.01) and the highest area under the curve (0.78).

CONCLUSIONS

Our results indicate that initially elevated arterial lactate is independently associated with poor outcomes and death in patients with severe acute pancreatitis and may serve as an early high-risk stratification indicator.

Bidirectional Relationship Between Reduced Blood pH and Acute Pancreatitis: A Translational Study of Their Noxious Combination

Acute pancreatitis (AP) is often accompanied by alterations in the acid-base balance, but how blood pH influences the outcome of AP is largely unknown. We studied the association between blood pH and the outcome of AP with meta-analysis of clinical trials, and aimed to discover the causative relationship between blood pH and AP in animal models. PubMed, EMBASE, and Cochrane Controlled Trials Registry databases were searched from inception to January 2017. Human studies reporting systemic pH status and outcomes (mortality rate, severity scores, and length of hospital stay) of patient groups with AP were included in the analyses. We developed a new mouse model of chronic metabolic acidosis (MA) and induced mild or severe AP in the mice. Besides laboratory blood testing, the extent of pancreatic edema, necrosis, and leukocyte infiltration were assessed in tissue sections of the mice. Thirteen studies reported sufficient data in patient groups with AP (n = 2,311). Meta-analysis revealed markedly higher mortality, elevated severity scores, and longer hospital stay in AP patients with lower blood pH or base excess (P < 0.001 for all studied outcomes). Meta-regression analysis showed significant negative correlation between blood pH and mortality in severe AP. In our mouse model, pre-existing MA deteriorated the pancreatic damage in mild and severe AP and, vice versa, severe AP further decreased the blood pH of mice with MA. In conclusion, MA worsens the outcome of AP, while severe AP augments the decrease of blood pH. The discovery of this vicious metabolic cycle opens up new therapeutic possibilities in AP.

High-Density Lipoprotein Cholesterol, Blood Urea Nitrogen, and Serum Creatinine Can Predict Severe Acute Pancreatitis

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Early prediction of disease severity of acute pancreatitis (AP) would be helpful for triaging patients to the appropriate level of care and intervention. The aim of the study was to develop a model able to predict Severe Acute Pancreatitis (SAP).

METHODS

A total of 647 patients with AP were enrolled. The demographic data, hematocrit, High-Density Lipoprotein Cholesterol (HDL-C) determinant at time of admission, Blood Urea Nitrogen (BUN), and serum creatinine (Scr) determinant at time of admission and 24 hrs after hospitalization were collected and analyzed statistically.

RESULTS

Multivariate logistic regression indicated that HDL-C at admission and BUN and Scr at 24 hours (hrs) were independently associated with SAP. A logistic regression function (LR model) was developed to predict SAP as follows: -2.25-0.06 HDL-C (mg/dl) at admission + 0.06 BUN (mg/dl) at 24 hours + 0.66 Scr (mg/dl) at 24 hours. The optimism-corrected c-index for LR model was 0.832 after bootstrap validation. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for LR model for the prediction of SAP was 0.84.

CONCLUSIONS

The LR model consists of HDL-C at admission and BUN and Scr at 24 hours, representing an additional tool to stratify patients at risk of SAP.

Acute pancreatitis in elderly patients: A retrospective evaluation at hospital admission

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Acute pancreatitis (AP) in elderly may have an aggressive course due to co-morbidity high rate and severe presentation. We retrospectively evaluated AP severity and its underlying factors in a group of elderly patients compared with an adult population sample.

METHODS

Forty-two elderly patients (65-102years) and 48 controls (19-64years) admitted at our Unit for biliary or alcoholic AP were retrospectively enrolled. AP severity was evaluated by the Atlanta classification and Ransom score. Laboratory investigations and demographic data were collected. Comparison between the two groups was performed by t-test, ANOVA or Fisher's exact test. A multinomial logistic regression was used to determine factors affecting AP severity.

RESULTS

Elderly patients showed more severe Atlanta (1.81±0.75 vs 1.29±0.46; p=0.007) and higher Ransom (2.52±1.57 vs 0.75±0.73; p<0.0001) scores. No death was observed. Elderly patients consumed more drugs than controls, had higher rates of cardiovascular, pulmonary and renal co-morbidity, showed higher creatinine (1.09±0.41 vs 0.81±0.18; p=0.004) and lower calcium levels (8.43±0.48 vs 8.88±0.44; p=0.002). We observed only one case of fluid necrosis in an old patient. Non-necrotic fluid collections were more common in the elderly (40.5% vs 12.5%; p=0.003). At multivariate analysis, AP severity was influenced by white blood cell-count (WBC: OR=1.94; p=0.048), aspartate-transaminase-levels (AST: OR=1.97; p=0.02), serum lactate-dehydrogenase (LDH: OR=1.07; p=0.047) and Ransom score (OR=70.4; p=0.036) in elderly, while only Ransom score correlated in controls (OR=66.04; p<0.001). The etiology (biliary/alcoholic) did not influence the severity.

CONCLUSIONS

Elderly patients usually undergo a severe AP course, but without increase of mortality. High WBC, LDH, AST and Ransom score at the onset may predict AP severity.

Hypocalcemic tetany: a simple bedside marker of poor outcome in acute pancreatitis

Background

Hypocalcemia is a marker of poor prognosis in acute pancreatitis (AP) but the prognostic significance of hypocalcemic tetany in patients with AP has not been studied. We aimed to determine the prognostic significance of hypocalcemic tetany in patients with AP.

Methods

Consecutive patients of AP who presented within 7 days of symptoms were included. Serum calcium levels were measured on admission and the patients were divided into two groups based on the presence (group 1) or absence of hypocalcemia (group 2). Chvostek and Trousseau signs were sought in all patients with hypocalcemia and the outcome measures were compared between patients with normocalcemia, asymptomatic and symptomatic hypocalcemia (tetany). The outcome parameters assessed were persistent organ failure (POF), need for intervention, and mortality.

Results

Of 105 patients (53 male; mean age 37.34±12.62 years), 37 (35.2%) had hypocalcemia (group 1) and 68 (64.8%) had normal corrected serum calcium levels (group 2). Patients with hypocalcemia had significantly higher frequency of POF, mortality and need for intervention (P<0.05). Twelve of 37 (32.4%) patients with hypocalcemia had tetany. Patients with tetany had significantly lower serum corrected calcium and ionized calcium levels compared with patients with asymptomatic hypocalcemia (P<0.05). Patients with tetany had significantly higher mortality rates compared with patients with asymptomatic hypocalcemia (100% vs. 8%; P=0.00001) as well as POF (100% vs. 32%; P=0.000006).

Conclusion

Presence of hypocalcemic tetany in AP patients bears a poor prognosis and is associated with increased mortality.

[Prevention and treatment of post-traumatic pancreatic necrosis in patients with blunt abdominal trauma]

INTRODUCTION

High incidence of necrotic and suppurative complications is feature of acute post-traumatic pancreatitis. Severe trauma of the pancreas and post-traumatic pancreatitis lead to depressurization of ductal system that requires adequate drainage of damaged area and retroperitoneal fat.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

95 patients in group 1 received standardized treatment. The victims of the 2nd group (44 patients) were treated using immunoreactive therapy (roncoleukin) and octreotide (the dose depended on the severity of pancreatitis) at early stages. The efficacy of treatment was assessed based on clinical, laboratory and instrumental parameters.

RESULTS

Regardless severity of pancreatic injury overall mortality in groups 1 and 2 was 41% and 20.5% respectively. The main causes of adverse outcomes are severe destructive pancreatitis, postnecrotic suppurative complications.

CONCLUSION

Adequacy rather radicalism of surgery should be preferred for blunt pancreatic trauma management. Minimally invasive surgical techniques and new methods of biological hemostasis may be applied. Timely use of anti-enzymatic and immunoactive therapy reduces the risk of severe post-traumatic pancreatitis, suppurative complications and improves outcomes in patients with blunt pancreatic trauma.

Plasma Lactate Dehydrogenase Levels Predict Mortality in Acute Aortic Syndromes: A Diagnostic Accuracy and Observational Outcome Study

In acute aortic syndromes (AAS), organ malperfusion represents a key event impacting both on diagnosis and outcome. Increased levels of plasma lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), a biomarker of malperfusion, have been reported in AAS, but the performance of LDH for the diagnosis of AAS and the relation of LDH with outcome in AAS have not been evaluated so far.This was a bi-centric prospective diagnostic accuracy study and a cohort outcome study. From 2008 to 2014, patients from 2 Emergency Departments suspected of having AAS underwent LDH assay at presentation. A final diagnosis was obtained by aortic imaging. Patients diagnosed with AAS were followed-up for in-hospital mortality.One thousand five hundred seventy-eight consecutive patients were clinically eligible, and 999 patients were included in the study. The final diagnosis was AAS in 201 (20.1%) patients. Median LDH was 424 U/L (interquartile range [IQR] 367-557) in patients with AAS and 383 U/L (IQR 331-460) in patients with alternative diagnoses (P < 0.001). Using a cutoff of 450 U/L, the sensitivity of LDH for AAS was 44% (95% confidence interval [CI] 37-51) and the specificity was 73% (95% CI 69-76). Overall in-hospital mortality for AAS was 23.8%. Mortality was 32.6% in patients with LDH ≥ 450 U/L and 16.8% in patients with LDH < 450 U/L (P = 0.006). Following stratification according to LDH quartiles, in-hospital mortality was 12% in the first (lowest) quartile, 18.4% in the second quartile, 23.5% in the third quartile, and 38% in the fourth (highest) quartile (P = 0.01). LDH ≥ 450 U/L was further identified as an independent predictor of death in AAS both in univariate and in stepwise logistic regression analyses (odds ratio 2.28, 95% CI 1.11-4.66; P = 0.025), in addition to well-established risk markers such as advanced age and hypotension. Subgroup analysis showed excess mortality in association with LDH ≥ 450 U/L in elderly, hemodynamically stable and in nonsurgically treated patients.Plasma LDH constitutes a biomarker of poor outcome in patients with AAS. LDH is a rapid and universally available assay that could be used to improve risk stratification and to individualize treatment in patient groups where options are controversial.

Correlation analysis of computed tomography imaging score with the presence of acute kidney injury in severe acute pancreatitis

OBJECTIVES

The aim of the study is to investigate the CT imaging findings of severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) complicated with acute kidney injury (AKI) and evaluate the correlation between the CT imaging score and the presence of AKI in SAP.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Contrast-enhanced CT scanning was performed for all 145 patients. Related CT indices such as Balthazar CT grading, CTSI and EPIC scores were calculated. Clinical data, including APACHE II, Ranson scores, serum creatinine levels, urine output, and mortality, were then collected and compared with CT indices.

RESULTS

The EPIC score showed a larger area under the receiver operating characteristic curve than either of the CTSI or Balthazar score. However, the change of APACHE II score, but not EPIC score, was significantly associated with the prognosis of AKI and eventual clinical outcome. In addition, the CT manifestation of fluid encapsulation was a good predictor of recovery from AKI.

CONCLUSIONS

Among the CT indices, the EPIC score, which possessed a good correlation with both APACHE II and Ranson scores, provided a better prediction of AKI in SAP patients than CTSI and Balthazar scores. Encapsulation of inflammatory exudates might be used in the future as imaging-based prognostic criteria of recovering from AKI in patients with SAP.

[Total serum calcium and corrected calcium as severity predictors in acute pancreatitis]

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate total serum calcium (TC) and albumin-corrected calcium (ACC) as prognostic severity factors in acute pancreatitis (AP).

METHODS

Ninety-six patients were included in the study. They were diagnosed with AP and admitted to the Hospital Regional de Veracruz within the time frame of January 2010 to December 2012. AP severity was determined through the updated Atlanta Classification (2013). TC and ACC values were measured in the first 24hours of admittance and the percentages of sensitivity (S), specificity (Sp), positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV), positive likelihood ratio (LR+), and negative likelihood ratio (LR-) were calculated through ROC curves and contingency tables.

RESULTS

In accordance with the updated Atlanta Classification, 70 patients presented with mild AP, 17 with moderately severe AP, and 9 with severe AP. Of the patient total, 61.5% were women, and 69.8% presented with biliary etiology. The maximum TC cut-off point was 7.5mg/dL, with values of S, 67%; Sp, 82%; PPV, 27%, and NPV, 96%. The maximum ACC cut-off point was 7.5mg/dL, with values of S, 67%; Sp, 90%; PPV, 40%; NPV, 96%. Both had values similar to those of the Ranson and APACHE II prognostic scales.

CONCLUSIONS

TC and ACC, measured within the first 24hours, are useful severity predictors in acute pancreatitis, with sensitivity and predictive values comparable or superior to those of the conventional prognostic scales.

An evidence-based proposal for predicting organ failure in severe acute pancreatitis

OBJECTIVES

Early, efficient, and accurate evaluation for organ failure is an important step for improving outcome in severe acute pancreatitis (SAP). We aim to develop a method that can early, efficiently, and accurately evaluate the in-hospital organ failure in patients with SAP.

METHODS

Using multivariate logistic regression analysis, the associative factors for in-hospital organ failure were evaluated retrospectively from conventional data obtained from 393 patients with SAP from 2000 to 2012. In classification and regression tree analysis, a new clinical scoring system was developed for the evaluation of in-hospital organ failure in SAP. We also compared the accuracy of our new scoring system with multiple organ dysfunction score and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Examination II score by the receiver operating characteristic curve.

RESULTS

Laboratory results revealed serum calcium level greater than or equal to 1.84 mmol/L, serum creatinine level greater than or equal to 110 µmol/L, age greater than or equal to 72 years, activated partial thromboplastin time less than or equal to 30.95 seconds, and Balthazar computed tomography score greater than or equal to 7 (CCAAB) score system, each contributed 1 point for the prediction of organ failure. The area under the curve of the CCAAB score system was similar to multiple organ dysfunction scores and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Examination II scores.

CONCLUSIONS

The new scoring system CCAAB is an efficient and accurate method for the early evaluation of patients with SAP for in-hospital organ failure.

Clinical observation on the effect of dexamethasone and Chinese herbal decoction for purgation in severe acute pancreatitis patients

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the effect of dexamethasone (Dx) combined with modified Dachengqi Decoction (DCQD), a Chinese herbal decoction for purgation, on patients with severe acute on patients with severe acute, a Chinese herbal decoction for purgation, on patients with severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) accompanied with systematic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS).

METHODS

A total of 81 patients diagnosed as SAP were randomly assigned to a control group or treatment group according to a random number table generated from an SPSS software. The patients in the control group (38 cases) received standard treatment and Chinese herbal decoction for purgation; those in the treatment group (43 cases) received additional 1 mg/(kg·d) dexamethasone (Dx) treatment for three days based on the above treatment. The mortality rate, acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), renal failure, hemorrhage, sepsis, pancreatic pseudocyst, pancreatic abscess, operability, and days of hospitalization were compared between the two groups.

RESULTS

Three patients in the control group and eight patients in the treatment group dropped out from the study with a drop-out rate of 7.8% and 18.6%, respectively, and no statistics difference was shown between the two groups (P>0.05). Dx treatment significantly reduced ARDS rate and shortened the length of hospitalization compared to those in the control group (7/35, 20.0% versus 15/35, 42.9%, P=0.0394; 32.5±13.2 days versus 40.2±17.5 days, P=0.0344). Other parameters including the mortality rate were not significant different between the two groups.

CONCLUSION

Dx combined with DCQD could decrease the risk of developing ARDS in SAP patients with SIRS and shorten their length of hospitalization.

Establishment of a secondary infection model of severe acute pancreatitis in swine

OBJECTIVE

Develop a swine model of secondary infection in severe acute pancreatitis (SAP).

METHODS

Twenty-seven female swine were divided into 3 groups (1-3). In the first experiment, a SAP model was developed by retrograde injection of sodium taurocholate and trypsin into the pancreatic duct. In the second experiment, the SAP model was used to develop a secondary infection model. In groups 1 to 3, 10⁸/mL or 10⁴/mL Escherichia coli or saline were respectively used to inoculate necrotic areas of the pancreas using computed tomographic guidance. Biochemical, histopathological, and imaging analyses were used to characterize disease presentation.

RESULTS

The survival rate was 85.2% (23/27) during the course of the 9-day experiment. The secondary infection rates in groups 1 to 3 were 100% (8/8), 37.5% (3/8), and 14.3% (1/7), respectively. In group 1, the infection rate was significantly higher in comparison to the other 2 groups (χ²=4.66 and 8.14, respectively, and both P<0.05). The biochemical and histopathological parameters and computed tomographic images indicated successful development of the SAP secondary infection model.

CONCLUSIONS

The swine model of SAP secondary infection was successfully developed using a 2-step method, which could serve as a platform for SAP studies that need complex experimental manipulations for longer time spans, especially for imaging research.

Nosocomial mortality and early prediction of patients with severe acute pancreatitis

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The aim of this study is to analyze factors (especially serum total cholesterol) that can enable early prediction of in-hospital mortality of patients with severe acute pancreatitis (SAP).

METHODS

Predictive factors (especially serum total cholesterol) for in-hospital mortality were evaluated retrospectively from the clinical data obtained from 338 SAP patients in our hospital from January 1999 to January 2008, who underwent intensive care, blood routine, blood biochemical tests and even computed tomography at the time of admission.

RESULTS

This analysis revealed that within 24 h after admission, serum total cholesterol (TC) was a mortality-reduced factor when it is between 4.37 mmol/L and 5.23 mmol/L (P < 0.05). Evaluated TC was accompanied by decreased C-reactive protein (CRP). CRP > 170 mg/L and albumin (ALB) < 30 g/L increased the fatal outcome (P < 0.05). Low albumin was a stronger predictor than CRP.

CONCLUSIONS

Within 24 h after admission, moderate elevation of TC level seemed to increase the resistance to inflammation and hence improved the survival rate in patients with SAP, and reduced the in-hospital mortality. Inflammatory reaction (with or without infection), hypoalbuminemia and TC were prognostic factors for in-hospital mortality; both high levels of CRP and low ALB levels were associated with in-hospital mortality in patients with SAP.

Advance in laboratory markers of acute severe pancreatitis

Acute pancreatitis (AP) was one of common acute abdominal diseases in digestive system, and it was divided into mild type and severe type. Many methods were used to judge the severity of AP, including all kinds of scoring system, biochemical indexes, and imaging methods. Recent researches found that some serum indexes such as acute reactive proteins, cytokines, enzymes, active peptides and procalcitonin could classify the severity of AP and judge the risks of complications. This article reviews the progress in the laboratory markers of severe AP.