Physiology, Ecological Niches and Species Distribution

Seasonal change and subniche dynamics of three Alexandrium species in the Korea Strait

Some members of the dinoflagellate genus Alexandrium produce toxins responsible for paralytic shellfish poisoning, which causes environmental impacts and large economic losses worldwide. The Outlying Mean Index (OMI) and the Within Outlying Mean Index (WitOMI) were used to examine the ecological niches of three Alexandrium species identifying factors affecting their population dynamics in the Korea Strait (KS). Species niches were divided into seasonal subniches based on species' temporal and spatial patterns, with A. catenella being highest in the spring, A. pacificum in the summer, and A. affine in the autumn. These shifts in abundance are likely due to changes in their habitat preferences and resource availability, as well as the effects of biological constraints. A subniche-based approach, which considers the interactions between the environment and the biological characteristics of a species, was useful in understanding the factors shaping the population dynamics of the individual species. Additionally, a species distribution model was used to predict the phenology and biogeography of the three Alexandrium species in the KS and their thermal niches on a larger scale. The model predicted that, in the KS, A. catenella exists on the warm side of the thermal niche, while A. pacificum and A. affine exist on the cold side, indicating that these species may respond differently to increases in water temperature. However, the predicted phenology was incongruent with the abundance of the species as measured by droplet digital PCR. Overall, the WitOMI analysis and species distribution model can provide valuable insights into how population dynamics are influenced by the integrated interplay of biotic and abiotic processes.

Towards an Understanding of Large-Scale Biodiversity Patterns on Land and in the Sea

This review presents a recent theory named ‘macroecological theory on the arrangement of life’ (METAL). This theory is based on the concept of the ecological niche and shows that the niche-environment (including climate) interaction is fundamental to explain many phenomena observed in nature from the individual to the community level (e.g., phenology, biogeographical shifts, and community arrangement and reorganisation, gradual or abrupt). The application of the theory in climate change biology as well as individual and species ecology has been presented elsewhere. In this review, I show how METAL explains why there are more species at low than high latitudes, why the peak of biodiversity is located at mid-latitudes in the oceanic domain and at the equator in the terrestrial domain, and finally why there are more terrestrial than marine species, despite the fact that biodiversity has emerged in the oceans. I postulate that the arrangement of planetary biodiversity is mathematically constrained, a constraint we previously called ‘the great chessboard of life’, which determines the maximum number of species that may colonise a given region or domain. This theory also makes it possible to reconstruct past biodiversity and understand how biodiversity could be reorganised in the context of anthropogenic climate change.

How do plankton species coexist in an apparently unstructured environment?

In a paper entitled The paradox of the plankton, Hutchinson asked 'how it is possible for a number of species to coexist in a relatively isotropic or unstructured environment all competing for the same sorts of materials' (Hutchinson 1961 Am. Nat. 95, 137-145 (doi:10.1086/282171)). Particularly relevant for phytoplankton, this paradox was based on two implicit, and perhaps naive, postulates, i.e. (i) that all plankton species have similar requirements and (ii) that the marine environment is relatively homogeneous in space and time. A number of hypotheses, based on purely theoretical or experimental studies, have been proposed to solve this conundrum, ranging from spatio-temporal environmental heterogeneity to biotic chaotic variability. Here, we characterize the ecological niche of 117 plankton species belonging to three different taxonomic groups and show that all species have a niche sufficiently distinct to ensure coexistence in a structured marine environment. We also provide evidence that pelagic habitats are, unsurprisingly, more diverse in space and time than Hutchinson imagined, the marine environment being neither unstructured nor stable in space and time. We, therefore, conclude that the niche theory, and its corollary the principle of competitive exclusion, apply as much for the plankton as for other forms of life, be they terrestrial or marine.

Integrating laboratory experiments and biogeographic modelling approaches to understand sensitivity to ocean warming in rare and common marine annelids

Among ectotherms, rare species are expected to have a narrower thermal niche breadth and reduced acclimation capacity and thus be more vulnerable to global warming than their common relatives. To assess these hypotheses, we experimentally quantified the thermal sensitivity of seven common, uncommon, and rare species of temperate marine annelids of the genus Ophryotrocha to assess their vulnerability to ocean warming. We measured the upper and lower limits of physiological thermal tolerance, survival, and reproductive performance of each species along a temperature gradient (18, 24, and 30 °C). We then combined this information to produce curves of each species' fundamental thermal niche by including trait plasticity. Each thermal curve was then expressed as a habitat suitability index (HSI) and projected for the Mediterranean Sea and temperate Atlantic Ocean under a present day (1970-2000), mid- (2050-2059) and late- (2090-2099) 21st Century scenario for two climate change scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). Rare and uncommon species showed a reduced upper thermal tolerance compared to common species, and the niche breadth and acclimation capacity were comparable among groups. The simulations predicted an overall increase in the HSI for all species and identified potential hotspots of HSI decline for uncommon and rare species along the warm boundaries of their potential distribution, though they failed to project the higher sensitivity of these species into a greater vulnerability to ocean warming. In the discussion, we provide some caveats on the implications of our results for conservation efforts.

The species chromatogram, a new graphical method to represent, characterize, and compare the ecological niches of different species

The ecological niche sensu Hutchinson is defined as the set of environmental conditions allowing a species to grow, maintain, and reproduce. This conception of the niche, which is assimilated to a p‐dimensional hypervolume, with p representing all environmental variables, has been widely applied in ecology. However, displaying the niche hypervolume has proved challenging when more than three environmental dimensions are considered simultaneously. We propose a simple method (implemented in the specieschrom R package) that displays the full multidimensionality of the ecological niche of a species into a two‐dimensional space by means of a graphic we call species chromatogram. This method gives a graphical summary of the niche by representing together abundance gradients with respect to all environmental variables. A chromatogram enables niche optimums and breaths to be rapidly quantified, and when several chromatograms are examined (one per species), rapid comparisons can be made. From our chromatograms, we proposed a procedure that quantifies niche optimum and breadth as well as niche overlapping (index D) and the identification of the most discriminant combination of environmental variables. We apply these analyses on eight planktonic species collected by the Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) survey in the North Atlantic Ocean using 10 environmental variables. We display their full multidimensional niches and quantify their niche optimums and breadths along each dimension. We also compare our index D with other indices by means of hypervolume and dynRB R packages. By catching the full complexity of the niche, species chromatograms allow many different niche properties to be rapidly assessed and compared among species from niche optimums and breadths to the identification of the most relevant environmental parameters and the degree of niche overlapping among species. Species chromatograms may be seen as species’ fingerprint and may also allow a better identification of the mechanisms involved in species assembly.

Modelling the biogeographic boundary shift of Calanus finmarchicus reveals drivers of Arctic Atlantification by subarctic zooplankton

Biological communities in the Arctic are changing through the climate-driven encroachment of subarctic species. This "Atlantification" extends to keystone Calanoid copepods, as the small-bodied Calanus finmarchicus increases in abundance in areas where it overlaps with larger Arctic congeners. The environmental factors that are facilitating this shift, whether related to optimal conditions in temperature or seasonality, remain unclear. Assessing these drivers at an Arctic-wide scale is necessary to predict future ecosystem change and impacts. Here we have compiled range-wide occurrences of C. finmarchicus and a suite of seasonal biophysical climatologies to build a boreo-Arctic ecological niche model. The data set was divided into two eras, 1955-1984 and 1985-2017, and an optimized MaxEnt model was used to predict the seasonal distribution of the abiotic niche of C. finmarchicus in both eras. Comparing outputs between eras reveals an increase in habitat suitability at the Arctic range edge. Large and significant increases in suitability are predicted in the regions of the Greenland, Labrador, and Southern Barents Seas that have experienced reduced sea-ice cover. With the exception of the Barents Sea, these areas also show a seasonal shift in the timing of peak habitat suitability toward an earlier season. Our findings suggest that the Atlantification of Arctic zooplankton communities is accompanied by climate-driven phenology changes. Although seasonality is a critical constraint to the establishment of C. finmarchicus at Arctic latitudes, earlier sea-ice retreat and associated productivity is making these environments increasingly favorable for this subarctic species.

Simulating crude oil exposure, uptake and effects in North Atlantic Calanus finmarchicus populations

A simulation model framework (SYMBIOSES) that includes a 3-dimensional ocean physics and biology model and a model for transport and fate of oil was used to investigate the potential for bioaccumulation and lethal/sublethal effects of oil components in the copepod Calanus finmarchicus in the Lofoten-Vesterålen archipelago of Norway. The oil model is coupled with the biology model by way of a bioaccumulation model, from which mortality and reduction in reproduction are calculated via a total body burden (TBB). The simulation results indicate that copepod body burden levels are affected by the spill type (surface spill, subsea blowout) and the spill timing (spring, autumn). The effects of oil component bioaccumulation on the copepod population for all scenarios are small, though greatest in the subsea blowout scenarios. We attribute this to the limited spatial and temporal overlap between copepods and oil in the environment simulated by the model. The coupling of the processes of oil transport, bioaccumulation/excretion and the associated effects are discussed in the context of the model framework and with a view towards applications for Ecological Risk Assessment (ERA).

Non-predatory mortality of planktonic copepods in a reef area influenced by estuarine plume

Although it has been proven that non-predatory mortality accounts for a large proportion of copepod mortality, there is still a lack of knowledge of the temporal and spatial patterns and influence of environmental variables on non-predatory mortality, especially in tropical areas where reefs are influenced by estuarine plumes. This study evaluated the percentage of carcasses and the non-predatory mortality rates for planktonic nauplii and copepodites in a bay with the presence of reefs under the influence of an estuarine plume, in the Atlantic tropical region. The average percentage of carcasses was less than 13% for both nauplii and copepodites, and was close to the minimum for other marine environments. However, there was a variation according to the different families and life stages of planktonic copepods. Nauplii had the highest mortality rate, with a mean rate of 0.04 ± 0.02 day^-1 (maximum, 0.11 day^-1), while the copepodites had a mean of 0.03 ± 0.01 day^-1 (maximum of 0.06 day^-1). Non-predatory mortality was higher in the rainy season, and differed between the nearby studied areas (bay, plume and reefs). Considering the three areas separately, only the estuarine plume showed higher percentages of carcass and non-predatory mortality rates of nauplii and copepodites. The increase in mortality rates for some copepod families was influenced by high salinity and low values of chlorophyll-a, dissolved oxygen and pH. These results demonstrate that the non-predatory mortality of copepods varies in a complex mosaic of interconnected ecosystems, and that the relationships between environmental variables with some groups may indicate susceptibility of different stages and families to death due to specific environmental conditions.

Satellite-based indicator of zooplankton distribution for global monitoring

This study investigates the association between an index of mesozooplankton biomass, derived from the Continuous Plankton Recorder survey and satellite-derived productivity fronts in the North Atlantic. While chlorophyll-a content (CHL) is commonly described as a proxy for phytoplankton biomass, the size of productivity fronts estimated from the horizontal gradient of CHL appears to be directly linked to mesozooplankton biomass. Our results suggest that the lifespan of productivity fronts, which ranges from weeks to months, meets the time requirement of mesozooplankton to develop. The proposed indicator describes the daily distribution of mesozooplankton's suitable feeding habitat. It also provides a coherent interpretation of the productivity front development with respect to phytoplankton activity (CHL values) and potential predation by higher trophic levels. Since mesozooplankton are essential for feeding at higher trophic levels, this satellite-derived indicator delivers essential information for research and policy. An unanticipated positive trend of the indicator from 2003 to 2017 is observed at a basin scale under the current effects of climate change, with regional peaks in relatively poorly productive areas. Such monitoring indicator is potentially important to advances in marine food web modelling, fisheries science and the dynamic management of oceans towards sustainability.

Temperature effects on performance and physiology of two prairie stream minnows

Earth's atmosphere has warmed by ~1°C over the past century and continues to warm at an increasing rate. Effects of atmospheric warming are already visible in most major ecosystems and are evident across all levels of biological organization. Linking functional responses of individuals to temperature is critical for predicting responses of populations and communities to global climate change. The southern redbelly dace Chrosomus erythrogaster and the central stoneroller Campostoma anomalum are two minnows (Cyprinidae) that commonly occur in the Flint Hills region of the USA but show different patterns of occurrence, with dace largely occupying headwater reaches and stonerollers persisting in both headwater and intermediate-sized streams. We tested for differences between species in critical thermal maximum, energy metabolism, sustained swimming and activity over an ecologically relevant temperature gradient of acclimation temperatures. Typically, metrics increased with acclimation temperature for both species, although stoneroller activity decreased with temperature. We observed a significant interaction between species and temperature for critical thermal maxima, where stonerollers only had higher critical thermal maxima at the coldest temperature and at warm temperatures compared to the dace. We did not find evidence suggesting differences in the energy metabolism of dace and stonerollers. We detected interspecific differences in sustained swimming performance, with dace having higher swimming speed than stonerollers regardless of acclimation temperature. Finally, there was a significant interaction between temperature and species for activity; dace activity was higher at intermediate and warm temperatures compared to stonerollers. We observed subtle interspecific differences in how performance metrics responded to temperature that did not always align with observed patterns of distribution for these species. Thus, other ecological factors likely are important drivers of distributional patterns in these species.

Rapid shifts in distribution and high-latitude persistence of oceanographic habitat revealed using citizen science data from a climate change hotspot

The environmental effects of climate change are predicted to cause distribution shifts in many marine taxa, yet data are often difficult to collect. Quantifying and monitoring species' suitable environmental habitats is a pragmatic approach for assessing changes in species distributions but is underdeveloped for quantifying climate change induced range shifts in marine systems. Specifically, habitat predictions present opportunities for quantifying spatiotemporal distribution changes while accounting for sources of natural climate variation. Here we demonstrate the utility of a marine-based habitat model parameterized using citizen science data and remotely sensed environmental covariates for quantifying shifts in oceanographic habitat suitability over 22 years for a coastal-pelagic fish species in a climate change hotspot. Our analyses account for the effects of natural intra- and interannual climate variability to reveal rapid poleward shifts in core (94.4 km/decade) and poleward edge (108.8 km/decade) oceanographic habitats. Temporal persistence of suitable oceanographic habitat at high latitudes also increased by approximately 3 months over the study period. Our approach demonstrates how marine citizen science data can be used to quantify range shifts, but necessitates shifting focus from species distributions directly, to the distribution of species' environmental habitat preferences.

Biogeographic responses of the copepod Calanus glacialis to a changing Arctic marine environment

Dramatic changes have occurred in the Arctic Ocean over the past few decades, especially in terms of sea ice loss and ocean warming. Those environmental changes may modify the planktonic ecosystem with changes from lower to upper trophic levels. This study aimed to understand how the biogeographic distribution of a crucial endemic copepod species, Calanus glacialis, may respond to both abiotic (ocean temperature) and biotic (phytoplankton prey) drivers. A copepod individual-based model coupled to an ice-ocean-biogeochemical model was utilized to simulate temperature- and food-dependent life cycle development of C. glacialis annually from 1980 to 2014. Over the 35-year study period, the northern boundaries of modeled diapausing C. glacialis expanded poleward and the annual success rates of C. glacialis individuals attaining diapause in a circumpolar transition zone increased substantially. Those patterns could be explained by a lengthening growth season (during which time food is ample) and shortening critical development time (the period from the first feeding stage N3 to the diapausing stage C4). The biogeographic changes were further linked to large-scale oceanic processes, particularly diminishing sea ice cover, upper ocean warming, and increasing and prolonging food availability, which could have potential consequences to the entire Arctic shelf/slope marine ecosystems.

Ecological effects of scrubber water discharge on coastal plankton: Potential synergistic effects of contaminants reduce survival and feeding of the copepod Acartia tonsa

To meet the oncoming requirements for lower sulphur emissions, shipping companies can install scrubbers where the exhaust is sprayed with seawater and subsequently discharged to the sea. The discharge water has a pH around 3 and contains elevated concentrations of vanadium, nickel, lead and hydrocarbons. We investigated 1) the threshold concentrations of scrubber discharge water for survival, feeding and reproduction of the copepod Acartia tonsa, 2) whether the effects depend on the exposure route and 3) whether exposure to discharge water can be detected in field-collected organisms. A direct exposure to discharge water increased adult copepod mortality and reduced feeding at metal concentrations which were orders of magnitude lower than the lethal concentrations in previous single-metal studies. In contrast, reproduction was not influenced by dietary uptake of contaminants. Scrubber water constituents could have synergistic effects on plankton productivity and bioaccumulation of metals, although the effects will depend on their dilution in the marine environment.

Projecting the effects of climate change on Calanus finmarchicus distribution within the U.S. Northeast Continental Shelf

Calanus finmarchicus is vital to pelagic ecosystems in the North Atlantic Ocean. Previous studies suggest the species is vulnerable to the effects of global warming, particularly on the Northeast U.S. Shelf, which is in the southern portion of its range. In this study, we evaluate an ensemble of six different downscaled climate models and a high-resolution global climate model, and create a generalized additive model (GAM) to examine how future changes in temperature and salinity could affect the distribution and density of C. finmarchicus. By 2081–2100, we project average C. finmarchicus density will decrease by as much as 50% under a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario. These decreases are particularly pronounced in the spring and summer in the Gulf of Maine and Georges Bank. When compared to a high-resolution global climate model, the ensemble showed a more uniform change throughout the Northeast U.S. Shelf, while the high-resolution model showed larger decreases in the Northeast Channel, Shelf Break, and Central Gulf of Maine. C. finmarchicus is an important link between primary production and higher trophic levels, and the decrease projected here could be detrimental to the North Atlantic Right Whale and a host of important fishery species.

Theoretical basis for predicting climate-induced abrupt shifts in the oceans

Among the responses of marine species and their ecosystems to climate change, abrupt community shifts (ACSs), also called regime shifts, have often been observed. However, despite their effects for ecosystem functioning and both provisioning and regulating services, our understanding of the underlying mechanisms involved remains elusive. This paper proposes a theory showing that some ACSs originate from the interaction between climate-induced environmental changes and the species ecological niche. The theory predicts that a substantial stepwise shift in the thermal regime of a marine ecosystem leads indubitably to an ACS and explains why some species do not change during the phenomenon. It also explicates why the timing of ACSs may differ or why some studies may detect or not detect a shift in the same ecosystem, independently of the statistical method of detection and simply because they focus on different species or taxonomic groups. The present theory offers a way to predict future climate-induced community shifts and their potential associated trophic cascades and amplifications.

Marine biological shifts and climate

Phenological, biogeographic and community shifts are among the reported responses of marine ecosystems and their species to climate change. However, despite both the profound consequences for ecosystem functioning and services, our understanding of the root causes underlying these biological changes remains rudimentary. Here, we show that a significant proportion of the responses of species and communities to climate change are deterministic at some emergent spatio-temporal scales, enabling testable predictions and more accurate projections of future changes. We propose a theory based on the concept of the ecological niche to connect phenological, biogeographic and long-term community shifts. The theory explains approximately 70% of the phenological and biogeographic shifts of a key zooplankton Calanus finmarchicus in the North Atlantic and approximately 56% of the long-term shifts in copepods observed in the North Sea during the period 1958-2009.

Habitat heterogeneity determines climate impact on zooplankton community structure and dynamics

Understanding and predicting species distribution in space and time and consequently community structure and dynamics is an important issue in ecology, and particularly in climate change research. A crucial factor determining the composition and dynamics of animal populations is habitat heterogeneity, i.e., the number of structural elements in a given locality. In the marine pelagic environment habitat heterogeneity is represented by the distribution of physical oceanographic parameters such as temperature, salinity and oxygen that are closely linked to atmospheric conditions. Little attention has been given, however, to the role of habitat heterogeneity in modulating the response of animal communities to external climate forcing. Here we investigate the long-term dynamics of Acartia spp., Temora longicornis, and Pseudocalanus acuspes, three dominant zooplankton species inhabiting different pelagic habitats in the Central Baltic Sea (CBS). We use the three copepods as indicator species for changes in the CBS zooplankton community and apply non-linear statistical modeling techniques to compare spatial population trends and to identify their drivers. We demonstrate that effects of climate variability and change depend strongly on species-specific habitat utilization, being more direct and pronounced at the upper water layer. We propose that the differential functional response to climate-related drivers in relation to strong habitat segregation is due to alterations of the species’ environmental niches. We stress the importance of understanding how anticipated climate change will affect ecological niches and habitats in order to project spatio-temporal changes in species abundance and distribution.

Understanding long-term changes in species abundance using a niche-based approach

One of the major challenges to understanding population changes in ecology for assessment purposes is the difficulty in evaluating the suitability of an area for a given species. Here we used a new simple approach able to faithfully predict through time the abundance of two key zooplanktonic species by focusing on the relationship between the species’ environmental preferences and their observed abundances. The approach is applied to the marine copepods Calanus finmarchicus and C. helgolandicus as a case study characterising the multidecadal dynamics of the North Sea ecosystem. We removed all North Sea data from the Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) dataset and described for both species a simplified ecological niche using Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and CPR Phytoplankton Colour Index (PCI). We then modelled the dynamics of each species by associating the North Sea’s environmental parameters to the species’ ecological niches, thus creating a method to assess the suitability of this area. By using both C. finmarchicus and C. helgolandicus as indicators, the procedure reproduces the documented switches from cold to warm temperate states observed in the North Sea.

Climatic facilitation of the colonization of an estuary by Acartia tonsa

Global change has become a major driving force of both terrestrial and marine systems. Located at the interface between these two realms, estuarine ecosystems are probably the place where both direct and indirect effects of human activities conspire together to affect biodiversity from phytoplankton to top predators. Among European estuarine systems, the Gironde is the largest estuary of Western Europe and many studies have provided evidence that it has been affected by a variety of anthropogenic stressors such as thermal and chemical pollution, physical alterations and exploitation, especially for maritime traffic. In such a context, species introduction is also a current major issue with the establishment of strong competitive species that could lead to ecosystem reorganization with potential decrease or even disappearance of native species. In the Gironde estuary, this hypothesis was proposed for the invasive shrimp species Palaemon macrodactylus as a decrease in the native species abundance was observed at the same time. Although species introduction often takes place via ballast water, the influence of climate-driven changes on the establishment of new species remains a key issue. The calanoid copepod Acartia tonsa, observed in the Gironde estuary for the first time in 1983, have since colonized most part of the estuary, reaching a level of abundance comparable to the dominant native species Eurytemora affinis. In this study, using both the concept of the ecological niche sensu Hutchinson (fundamental and realized niches) and statistical models, we reveal that the dynamics of the colonization of A. tonsa was facilitated by environmental conditions that have become closer to its environmental optimum with respect to temperature and salinity.

High evolutionary potential of marine zooplankton

Open ocean zooplankton often have been viewed as slowly evolving species that have limited capacity to respond adaptively to changing ocean conditions. Hence, attention has focused on the ecological responses of zooplankton to current global change, including range shifts and changing phenology. Here, we argue that zooplankton also are well poised for evolutionary responses to global change. We present theoretical arguments that suggest plankton species may respond rapidly to selection on mildly beneficial mutations due to exceptionally large population size, and consider the circumstantial evidence that supports our inference that selection may be particularly important for these species. We also review all primary population genetic studies of open ocean zooplankton and show that genetic isolation can be achieved at the scale of gyre systems in open ocean habitats (100s to 1000s of km). Furthermore, population genetic structure often varies across planktonic taxa, and appears to be linked to the particular ecological requirements of the organism. In combination, these characteristics should facilitate adaptive evolution to distinct oceanographic habitats in the plankton. We conclude that marine zooplankton may be capable of rapid evolutionary as well as ecological responses to changing ocean conditions, and discuss the implications of this view. We further suggest two priority areas for future research to test our hypothesis of high evolutionary potential in open ocean zooplankton, which will require (1) assessing how pervasive selection is in driving population divergence and (2) rigorously quantifying the spatial and temporal scales of population differentiation in the open ocean. Recent attention has focused on the ecological responses of open ocean zooplankton to current global change, including range shifts and changing phenology. Here, we argue that marine zooplankton also are well poised for evolutionary responses to global change.