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Angelini R, Lima MAL, Lira AS, Lucena-Frédou F, Frédou T, Bertrand A, Giarrizzo T, Steenbeek J, Coll M, Keppeler FW. The projected impacts of climate change and fishing pressure on a tropical marine food web. MARINE ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2025; 204:106909. [PMID: 39700750 DOI: 10.1016/j.marenvres.2024.106909] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/24/2024] [Revised: 12/09/2024] [Accepted: 12/10/2024] [Indexed: 12/21/2024]
Abstract
Small-scale fisheries, especially those from developing countries, are vital for millions. Understanding the impact of environmental and human factors on fish stocks and yields and how they might change is crucial to ensure the sustainable use of aquatic resources. We developed an ecosystem model using Ecopath and Ecosim (EwE) to investigate changes in target species biomass and ecosystem attributes over 83 years (2017-2100) caused by different scenarios of fishing pressure and ocean warming in the Brazilian Northeastern continental shelf. The simulations considered three IPCC climate change scenarios (RCP2.6 [0.42 °C], RCP4.5 [1.53 °C], and RCP8.5 [4.02 °C]) and four fishing pressure scenarios: two with increased pressure (10% and 30%) and two with decreased pressure (-10% and -30%). The Ecopath model indicated that the Brazilian Northeastern continental shelf ecosystem is a grazing-based system with high biomass in macroalgae and detritus compartments, supporting a diverse community of consumers. Our simulations projected overall reductions in the biomass of target species, mainly under extreme climate change. Increasing temperatures and fishing efforts reduced the biomass of large predatory species and the food web length in several scenarios. Although projected changes in ecological network and information metrics were of lower magnitude, results predicted declines in production/respiration ratio, material cycling, and ascendency (variable related to trophic specialization, internalization, and material cycling) with climate change. These declines were likely linked to increased respiration rates, metabolic costs, and lower trophic efficiency with elevated temperatures. Together, our results show how climate change and fishing pressure can change the structure of coastal ecosystems, potentially leading to undesirable alternative states for fisheries. Our approach demonstrates the effectiveness of ecosystem-based modeling in projecting likely trajectories of change, which can be especially useful for resource management in data-limited conditions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ronaldo Angelini
- TRIATLAS PROJECT - Environmental and Civil Engineering Department, Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte, Campus Universitário Lagoa Nova, CEP 59078-970, Natal, Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil
| | - Maria Alice Leite Lima
- TRIATLAS PROJECT - Environmental and Civil Engineering Department, Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte, Campus Universitário Lagoa Nova, CEP 59078-970, Natal, Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil
| | - Alex Souza Lira
- Fisheries and Aquaculture Department, Federal University of Sergipe, Avenida Marechal Rondon s/n, 49100-000, Aracaju, Sergipe, Brazil
| | - Flávia Lucena-Frédou
- Fisheries and Aquaculture Department, Federal Rural University of Pernambuco, Rua D. Manuel de Medeiros s/n, Dois Irmãos, CEP 5171-900, Recife, Pernambuco, Brazil
| | - Thierry Frédou
- Fisheries and Aquaculture Department, Federal Rural University of Pernambuco, Rua D. Manuel de Medeiros s/n, Dois Irmãos, CEP 5171-900, Recife, Pernambuco, Brazil
| | - Arnaud Bertrand
- Fisheries and Aquaculture Department, Federal Rural University of Pernambuco, Rua D. Manuel de Medeiros s/n, Dois Irmãos, CEP 5171-900, Recife, Pernambuco, Brazil; IMARBEC, Univ Montpellier, CNRS, Ifremer, IRD, Sète, France
| | - Tommaso Giarrizzo
- Instituto de Ciências do Mar (LABOMAR), Federal University of Ceará, Fortaleza, Brazil; Aquatic Ecology Group, Federal University of Pará, Belém, Pará, Brazil
| | - Jeroen Steenbeek
- Ecopath International Initiative Research Association, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Marta Coll
- Ecopath International Initiative Research Association, Barcelona, Spain; Institute of Marine Science, Spanish National Research Council (ICM-CSIC), Passeig Maritim de la Barceloneta, nº 37-49, 08003, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Friedrich Wolfgang Keppeler
- TRIATLAS PROJECT - Environmental and Civil Engineering Department, Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte, Campus Universitário Lagoa Nova, CEP 59078-970, Natal, Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil; Instituto de Ciências do Mar (LABOMAR), Federal University of Ceará, Fortaleza, Brazil; Aquatic Ecology Group, Federal University of Pará, Belém, Pará, Brazil.
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2
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Serpetti N, Piroddi C, Akoglu E, Garcia-Gorriz E, Miladinova S, Macias D. State of the art modelling for the Black Sea ecosystem to support European policies. PLoS One 2025; 20:e0312170. [PMID: 39813185 PMCID: PMC11734964 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0312170] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/01/2024] [Accepted: 10/02/2024] [Indexed: 01/18/2025] Open
Abstract
The Black Sea is affected by numerous anthropogenic pressures, such as eutrophication and pollution through coastal and river discharges, fisheries overexploitation, species invasions, and the impacts of climate change. Growing concerns regarding the cumulative effects of these pressures have necessitated the need for an ecosystem approach to assessing the state of this basin. In recent years, the European Commission-JRC has developed a scientific and modelling tool, the Blue2 Modelling Framework with the aim of exploring the consequences of EU management and policy options on marine ecosystems. This framework has been designed to provide information on specific ecological indicators set out in EU legislation. Here, we present the Blue2 framework for the Black Sea ecosystem. The model represented the mid-1990s' conditions in the Black Sea ecosystem including trophic levels from primary producers to marine mammals and sea birds. The model simulations covered a period from 1995-2021. The results showed that gulls & cormorant seabirds, sprat, horse mackerel and mugilidae had structuring role in the food web. Fishing fleets had indirect negative impacts on marine mammals in addition to commercially exploited species. Analysis of the ecosystem indicators confirmed the overall temporal degradation of the Black Sea when comparing results with other Black Sea models, whilst the comparison with the Mediterranean Sea allowed us to identify comparable indicators between similar model structures. The spatial/temporal model successfully simulated the overall ongoing declining dynamics of the Black Sea ecosystem as the biomasses of the majority of the functional groups had significant observed decreasing trends during the simulation period. This model is the first attempt to represent the historical and current state of the Black Sea ecosystem spatially and temporally, serving as a reference baseline for evaluating policy scenarios and assisting policy makers in the evaluation of potential environmental impacts of management options.
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Affiliation(s)
- Natalia Serpetti
- European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Directorate D-Sustainable Resources, Ispra, Italy
| | - Chiara Piroddi
- European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Directorate D-Sustainable Resources, Ispra, Italy
| | - Ekin Akoglu
- Department of Marine Biology and Fisheries, Institute of Marine Sciences, Middle East Technical University, Erdemli-Mersin, Türkiye
- Climate Change and Sustainable Development Application and Research Center, Middle East Technical University, Ankara, Türkiye
| | - Elisa Garcia-Gorriz
- European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Directorate D-Sustainable Resources, Ispra, Italy
| | - Svetla Miladinova
- European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Directorate D-Sustainable Resources, Ispra, Italy
| | - Diego Macias
- European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Directorate D-Sustainable Resources, Ispra, Italy
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3
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Coll M, Bellido JM, Pennino MG, Albo-Puigserver M, Báez JC, Christensen V, Corrales X, Fernández-Corredor E, Giménez J, Julià L, Lloret-Lloret E, Macias D, Ouled-Cheikh J, Ramírez F, Sbragaglia V, Steenbeek J. Retrospective analysis of the pelagic ecosystem of the Western Mediterranean Sea: Drivers, changes and effects. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2024; 907:167790. [PMID: 37871814 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.167790] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/17/2023] [Revised: 09/29/2023] [Accepted: 10/10/2023] [Indexed: 10/25/2023]
Abstract
In the Western Mediterranean Sea, forage fishes have changed in abundance, body condition, growth, reproduction, and distribution in the last decades. Different hypotheses have been proposed to explain these changes, including increase in fishing mortality; changes in environmental conditions affecting species fitness, and planktonic productivity and quality; recovery of top predators; and increase in competitors. We investigated the main drivers and changes of the pelagic ecosystem and their effects using an ecosystem-based modelling approach. Specifically, we (1) quantified the potential historical contribution of various drivers of change, (2) investigated changes in temporal trends and spatial distributions of main ecosystem components, and (3) identified ecological consequences of these changes in top predator and competitors, their fisheries and ecosystem traits during 2000-2020. We updated an established Ecopath food-web model representing the Spanish and French Mediterranean sub-areas (GSA06 and GSA07) in 2000 with recent available data. We applied the temporal dynamic Ecosim module, and tested historical time series of fishing effort, fishing mortality and environmental factors as potential drivers. Observed biomass and landings of key species were used to validate model projections. A spatial-temporal Ecospace model was developed to project species distribution changes. Results showed historical biomass and catch changes driven by a combination of high fishing pressure and environmental change (i.e. increase in temperature and salinity, and decline in primary productivity). Small pelagic fish showed significant temporal changes and predicted shifts in their distributions, following a latitudinal gradient. Predators and competitors showed changes as well, displaying heterogeneous spatial patterns, while fisheries landings declined. Overall, results matched observations (e.g., decline of sardine, fluctuations of anchovy and increases in bluefin tuna) and illustrated the need to complement traditional assessments with integrative frameworks to move towards an ecosystem-based approach in the Mediterranean. They also highlighted important knowledge gaps to guide future research in the region.
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Affiliation(s)
- Marta Coll
- Institute of Marine Sciences (ICM-CSIC), Barcelona, Spain; Ecopath International Initiative (EII), Barcelona, Spain.
| | - José María Bellido
- Spanish Institute of Oceanography (IEO-CSIC, CO Baleares, CO Málaga, CO Murcia y CO Vigo), Spain
| | - Maria Grazia Pennino
- Spanish Institute of Oceanography (IEO-CSIC, CO Baleares, CO Málaga, CO Murcia y CO Vigo), Spain
| | - Marta Albo-Puigserver
- Spanish Institute of Oceanography (IEO-CSIC, CO Baleares, CO Málaga, CO Murcia y CO Vigo), Spain
| | - José Carlos Báez
- Spanish Institute of Oceanography (IEO-CSIC, CO Baleares, CO Málaga, CO Murcia y CO Vigo), Spain.; Instituto Iberoamericano de Desarrollo Sostenible (IIDS), Universidad Autónoma de Chile, Av. Alemania 1090. Temuco 4810101, Región de la Araucanía, Chile
| | - Villy Christensen
- Ecopath International Initiative (EII), Barcelona, Spain; Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada
| | - Xavier Corrales
- AZTI, Marine Research Division, Basque Research and Technology Alliance (BRTA), Sukarrieta, Spain
| | | | - Joan Giménez
- Institute of Marine Sciences (ICM-CSIC), Barcelona, Spain
| | - Laura Julià
- Institute of Marine Sciences (ICM-CSIC), Barcelona, Spain
| | | | - Diego Macias
- European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Directorate D - Sustainable Resources, Ispra, Italy
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4
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Ma YF, You XY. Modeling the effect of fish migration on the horizontal distribution of microplastics in freshwater and ecological risks in the food web: Influence of habitat. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2023; 904:166265. [PMID: 37591398 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.166265] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/30/2023] [Revised: 08/03/2023] [Accepted: 08/11/2023] [Indexed: 08/19/2023]
Abstract
Microplastics (MPs < 5 mm) pollution is a widespread phenomenon in freshwater ecosystems. While the role of physiochemical factors in the migration and distribution of MPs is understood, the impact of biological migration remains less clear. The influence of nekton migration determined by habitat suitability on the distribution of MPs and the consequent ecological risks to the regional food web is investigated in the freshwater environment by using Baiyangdian Lake (China) as a case study. The key findings reveal that fish migration significantly alters the horizontal distribution of MPs in the water environment, with a higher degree of fish aggregation in high suitability habitats leading to an increased presence of MPs due to their ingestion and excretion behaviors. In both high and low suitability habitats, MPs are found to bioconcentrate in fish, suggesting a significant risk to aquatic ecosystems. Despite the lack of evidence supporting MPs biomagnification, the results indicate that MPs are more likely to be biomagnified within the food web of high suitability habitats due to the enhanced foraging capabilities of aquatic organisms. These findings highlight the critical need to consider biological factors, such as nekton migration, in understanding and addressing MPs pollution in freshwater ecosystems.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yi-Fei Ma
- Tianjin Engineering Center of Urban River Eco-purification Technology, School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Tianjin University, Jinnan District, Tianjin 300350, China
| | - Xue-Yi You
- Tianjin Engineering Center of Urban River Eco-purification Technology, School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Tianjin University, Jinnan District, Tianjin 300350, China.
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5
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Smith M, Chagaris D, Paperno R, Markwith S. Tropical estuarine ecosystem change under the interacting influences of future climate and ecosystem restoration. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2023; 29:5850-5865. [PMID: 37452446 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.16868] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/08/2022] [Accepted: 06/09/2023] [Indexed: 07/18/2023]
Abstract
One of the largest restoration programs in the world, the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan (CERP) aims to restore freshwater inputs to Everglades wetlands and the Florida Bay estuary. This study predicted how the Florida Bay ecosystem may respond to hydrological restoration from CERP within the context of contemporary projected impacts of sea-level rise (SLR) and increased future temperatures. A spatial-temporal dynamic model (Ecospace) was used to develop a spatiotemporal food web model incorporating environmental drivers of salinity, salinity variation, temperature, depth, distance to mangrove, and seagrass abundance and was used to predict responses of biomass, fisheries catch, and ecosystem resilience between current and future conditions. Changes in biomass between the current and future scenario suggest a suite of winners and losers, with many estuarine species increasing in both total biomass and spatial distribution. Notable biomass increases were predicted for important forage species, including bay anchovy (+32%), hardhead halfbeak (+19%), and pinfish (+31%), while decreases were predicted in mullet (-88%), clupeids (-55%), hardhead silverside (-15%), mojarras (-117%), and Portunid crabs (-16%). Increases in sportfish biomass included the angler-preferred spotted seatrout (+9%), red drum (+10%), and gray snapper (+8%), while decreases included sheepshead (-40%), Atlantic tarpon (-73%), and common snook (-507%). Ecosystem resilience and fisheries catch of angler-preferred species were predicted to improve in the future scenario in total, although a localized decline in resilience predicted for the Central Region may warrant further attention. Our results suggest the Florida Bay ecosystem is likely to achieve restoration benefits in spite of, and in some cases facilitated by, the projected future impacts from climate change due to the system's shallow depth and detrital dominance. The incorporation of climate impacts into long-term restoration planning using ecosystem modeling in similar systems facing unknown futures of SLR, warming seas, and shifting species distributions is recommended.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mason Smith
- Department of Geosciences, Florida Atlantic University, Boca Raton, Florida, USA
| | - David Chagaris
- IFAS Nature Coast Biological Station, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, USA
| | - Richard Paperno
- Indian River Field Laboratory, Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission, Fish and Wildlife Research Institute, Melbourne, Florida, USA
| | - Scott Markwith
- Department of Geosciences, Florida Atlantic University, Boca Raton, Florida, USA
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6
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Nascimento MC, Husson B, Guillet L, Pedersen T. Modelling the spatial shifts of functional groups in the Barents Sea using a climate-driven spatial food web model. Ecol Modell 2023. [DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2023.110358] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 03/29/2023]
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7
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Stock A, Murray CC, Gregr EJ, Steenbeek J, Woodburn E, Micheli F, Christensen V, Chan KMA. Exploring multiple stressor effects with Ecopath, Ecosim, and Ecospace: Research designs, modeling techniques, and future directions. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2023; 869:161719. [PMID: 36693571 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.161719] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/26/2022] [Revised: 01/04/2023] [Accepted: 01/15/2023] [Indexed: 06/17/2023]
Abstract
Understanding the cumulative effects of multiple stressors is a research priority in environmental science. Ecological models are a key component of tackling this challenge because they can simulate interactions between the components of an ecosystem. Here, we ask, how has the popular modeling platform Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE) been used to model human impacts related to climate change, land and sea use, pollution, and invasive species? We conducted a literature review encompassing 166 studies covering stressors other than fishing mostly in aquatic ecosystems. The most modeled stressors were physical climate change (60 studies), species introductions (22), habitat loss (21), and eutrophication (20), using a range of modeling techniques. Despite this comprehensive coverage, we identified four gaps that must be filled to harness the potential of EwE for studying multiple stressor effects. First, only 12% of studies investigated three or more stressors, with most studies focusing on single stressors. Furthermore, many studies modeled only one of many pathways through which each stressor is known to affect ecosystems. Second, various methods have been applied to define environmental response functions representing the effects of single stressors on species groups. These functions can have a large effect on the simulated ecological changes, but best practices for deriving them are yet to emerge. Third, human dimensions of environmental change - except for fisheries - were rarely considered. Fourth, only 3% of studies used statistical research designs that allow attribution of simulated ecosystem changes to stressors' direct effects and interactions, such as factorial (computational) experiments. None made full use of the statistical possibilities that arise when simulations can be repeated many times with controlled changes to the inputs. We argue that all four gaps are feasibly filled by integrating ecological modeling with advances in other subfields of environmental science and in computational statistics.
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Affiliation(s)
- A Stock
- Institute for Resources, Environment and Sustainability, University of British Columbia, AERL Building, 429-2202 Main Mall, Vancouver V6T 1Z4, BC, Canada.
| | - C C Murray
- Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Institute of Ocean Sciences, 9860 West Saanich Road, Sidney, BC V8L 5T5, Canada
| | - E J Gregr
- Institute for Resources, Environment and Sustainability, University of British Columbia, AERL Building, 429-2202 Main Mall, Vancouver V6T 1Z4, BC, Canada; SciTech Environmental Consulting, Vancouver, BC, Canada
| | - J Steenbeek
- Ecopath International Initiative (EII) Research Association, Barcelona, Spain
| | - E Woodburn
- Institute for Resources, Environment and Sustainability, University of British Columbia, AERL Building, 429-2202 Main Mall, Vancouver V6T 1Z4, BC, Canada
| | - F Micheli
- Hopkins Marine Station, Oceans Department, Stanford University, Pacific Grove, CA 93950, USA; Stanford Center for Ocean Solutions, Pacific Grove, CA 93950, USA
| | - V Christensen
- Ecopath International Initiative (EII) Research Association, Barcelona, Spain; Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada
| | - K M A Chan
- Institute for Resources, Environment and Sustainability, University of British Columbia, AERL Building, 429-2202 Main Mall, Vancouver V6T 1Z4, BC, Canada; Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada
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8
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A density functional theory for ecology across scales. Nat Commun 2023; 14:1089. [PMID: 36841818 PMCID: PMC9968302 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-36628-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/16/2021] [Accepted: 02/09/2023] [Indexed: 02/27/2023] Open
Abstract
Ecology lacks a holistic approach that can model phenomena across temporal and spatial scales, largely because of the challenges in modelling systems with a large number of interacting constituents. This hampers our understanding of complex ecosystems and the impact that human interventions (e.g., deforestation, wildlife harvesting and climate change) have on them. Here we use density functional theory, a computational method for many-body problems in physics, to develop a computational framework for ecosystem modelling. Our methods accurately fit experimental and synthetic data of interacting multi-species communities across spatial scales and can project to unseen data. As the key concept we establish and validate a cost function that encodes the trade-offs between the various ecosystem components. We show how this single general modelling framework delivers predictions on par with established, but specialised, approaches for systems from predatory microbes to territorial flies to tropical tree communities. Our density functional framework thus provides a promising avenue for advancing our understanding of ecological systems.
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9
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Vilas D, Buszowski J, Sagarese S, Steenbeek J, Siders Z, Chagaris D. Evaluating red tide effects on the West Florida Shelf using a spatiotemporal ecosystem modeling framework. Sci Rep 2023; 13:2541. [PMID: 36781942 PMCID: PMC9925760 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-023-29327-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/09/2022] [Accepted: 02/02/2023] [Indexed: 02/15/2023] Open
Abstract
The West Florida Shelf (WFS), located in the eastern Gulf of Mexico, fosters high species richness and supports highly valuable fisheries. However, red tide events occur regularly that can impact fisheries resources as well as ecosystem state, functioning, and derived services. Therefore, it is important to evaluate and quantify the spatiotemporal impacts of red tides to improve population assessments, mitigate potential negative effects through management, and better understand disturbances to support an ecosystem-based management framework. To model red tide effects on the marine community, we used Ecospace, the spatiotemporal module of the ecosystem modeling framework Ecopath with Ecosim. The inclusion of both lethal and sublethal response functions to red tide and a comprehensive calibration procedure allowed to systematically evaluate red tide effects and increased the robustness of the model and management applicability. Our results suggest severe red tide impacts have occurred on the WFS at the ecosystem, community, and population levels in terms of biomass, catch, and productivity. Sublethal and indirect food-web effects of red tide triggered compensatory responses such as avoidance behavior and release from predation and/or competition.. This study represents a step forward to operationalize spatiotemporal ecosystem models for management purposes that may increase the ability of fisheries managers to respond more effectively and be more proactive to episodic mortality events, such as those caused by red tides.
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Affiliation(s)
- Daniel Vilas
- Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences Program, School of Forest Resources and Conservation, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, 32611, USA.
- Nature Coast Biological Station, Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences, University of Florida, Cedar Key, FL, 32625, USA.
- School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences, University of Washington, Box 355020, Seattle, WA, 98195, USA.
- Resource Assessment and Conservation Engineering Division, Alaska Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, NOAA, Seattle, WA, 98115, USA.
| | | | - Skyler Sagarese
- NOAA Fisheries Service - Southeast Fisheries Science Center, Miami, FL, 33149, USA
| | | | - Zach Siders
- Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences Program, School of Forest Resources and Conservation, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, 32611, USA
| | - David Chagaris
- Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences Program, School of Forest Resources and Conservation, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, 32611, USA.
- Nature Coast Biological Station, Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences, University of Florida, Cedar Key, FL, 32625, USA.
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10
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Modelling the Mediterranean Sea ecosystem at high spatial resolution to inform the ecosystem-based management in the region. Sci Rep 2022; 12:19680. [PMID: 36385268 PMCID: PMC9669036 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-022-18017-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/06/2022] [Accepted: 08/03/2022] [Indexed: 11/17/2022] Open
Abstract
Cumulative pressures are rapidly expanding in the Mediterranean Sea with consequences for marine biodiversity and marine resources, and the services they provide. Policy makers urge for a marine ecosystem assessment of the region in space and time. This study evaluates how the whole Mediterranean food web may have responded to historical changes in the climate, environment and fisheries, through the use of an ecosystem modelling over a long time span (decades) at high spatial resolution (8 × 8 km), to inform regional and sub-regional management. Results indicate coastal and shelf areas to be the sites with highest marine biodiversity and marine resources biomass, which decrease towards the south-eastern regions. High levels of total catches and discards are predicted to be concentrated in the Western sub-basin and the Adriatic Sea. Mean spatial-temporal changes of total and commercial biomass show increases in offshore waters of the region, while biodiversity indicators show marginal changes. Total catches and discards increase greatly in offshore waters of the Western and Eastern sub-basins. Spatial patterns and temporal mean changes of marine biodiversity, community biomasses and trophic indices, assessed in this study, aim at identifying areas and food web components that show signs of deterioration with the overall goal of assisting policy makers in designing and implementing spatial management actions for the region.
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11
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Peltonen H, Weigel B. Responses of coastal fishery resources to rapid environmental changes. JOURNAL OF FISH BIOLOGY 2022; 101:686-698. [PMID: 35722827 PMCID: PMC9543972 DOI: 10.1111/jfb.15138] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/22/2022] [Accepted: 06/10/2022] [Indexed: 05/05/2023]
Abstract
Coastal systems experience strong impacts of ongoing environmental change, affecting fish communities and subsequently fishery yields. In the Baltic Sea, the combined effects of climate-induced changes and eutrophication-related pressures constitute major threats to its living resources. Although much work has been devoted to uncovering environmental impacts on the commercially most valuable fish stocks, only little is known about community-wide responses of fished species and how environmental change may affect their yield. In this study, the authors use a joint species distribution modelling framework to disentangle environmental impacts on species-specific fishery yields of 16 fished species along the coast of Finland over four decades. The authors show that environmental covariates substantially contributed to variations in fishery yields and are likely to have strong impacts on fished resources also in the future. Salinity and near-bottom oxygen concentration emerged as the strongest environmental drivers of yields at the community level, whereas temperature was particularly important for cod (Gadus morhua) and sprat (Sprattus sprattus) yields. The authors found shore density to be an important predictor for fisheries resources especially for freshwater fish. The results of this study suggest that the changes in environmental conditions during the past four decades had a positive effect on the yields of freshwater and warm-affinity species, whereas yields of marine cold-affinity species have been mainly negatively affected by contracting favourable habitats, becoming warmer and less saline.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Benjamin Weigel
- Research Centre for Ecological Change, Organismal and Evolutionary Biology Research Programme, Faculty of Biological and Environmental SciencesUniversity of HelsinkiHelsinkiFinland
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12
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Beresford NA, Beaugelin-Seiller K, Barnett CL, Brown J, Doering C, Caffrey E, Johansen MP, Melintescu A, Ruedig E, Vandenhove H, Vives I Batlle J, Wood MD, Yankovich TL, Copplestone D. Ensuring robust radiological risk assessment for wildlife: insights from the International Atomic Energy Agency EMRAS and MODARIA programmes. JOURNAL OF RADIOLOGICAL PROTECTION : OFFICIAL JOURNAL OF THE SOCIETY FOR RADIOLOGICAL PROTECTION 2022; 42:020512. [PMID: 35502472 DOI: 10.1088/1361-6498/ac6043] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/16/2021] [Accepted: 03/23/2022] [Indexed: 06/14/2023]
Abstract
In response to changing international recommendations and national requirements, a number of assessment approaches, and associated tools and models, have been developed over the last circa 20 years to assess radiological risk to wildlife. In this paper, we summarise international intercomparison exercises and scenario applications of available radiological assessment models for wildlife to aid future model users and those such as regulators who interpret assessments. Through our studies, we have assessed the fitness for purpose of various models and tools, identified the major sources of uncertainty and made recommendations on how the models and tools can best be applied to suit the purposes of an assessment. We conclude that the commonly used tiered or graded assessment tools are generally fit for purpose for conducting screening-level assessments of radiological impacts to wildlife. Radiological protection of the environment (or wildlife) is still a relatively new development within the overall system of radiation protection and environmental assessment approaches are continuing to develop. Given that some new/developing approaches differ considerably from the more established models/tools and there is an increasing international interest in developing approaches that support the effective regulation of multiple stressors (including radiation), we recommend the continuation of coordinated international programmes for model development, intercomparison and scenario testing.
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Affiliation(s)
- N A Beresford
- UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Lancaster Environment Centre, Bailrigg, Lancaster LA1 4AP, United Kingdom
- School of Science, Engineering and Environment, University of Salford, Manchester, M5 4WT, United Kingdom
| | - K Beaugelin-Seiller
- Institut de Radioprotection et de Sûreté Nucléaire, PSE/ENV/SRTE, Centre de Cadarache, Saint-Pual-Les-Durance, BP3 13115, France
| | - C L Barnett
- UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Lancaster Environment Centre, Bailrigg, Lancaster LA1 4AP, United Kingdom
| | - J Brown
- Norwegian Radiation and Nuclear Safety Authority (DSA), PO Box 55, No-1332 Østerås, Norway
| | - C Doering
- Environmental Research Institute of the Supervising Scientist, Darwin, NT, Australia
| | - E Caffrey
- Radian Scientific, LLC, Huntsville, AL, United States of America
| | - M P Johansen
- Australian Nuclear Science and Technology Organisation, Sydney, Australia
| | - A Melintescu
- 'Horia Hulubei' National Institute for Physics and Nuclear Engineering, 30 Reactorului St., POB MG-6, Magurele, Bucharest, RO-077125, Romania
| | - E Ruedig
- BHP, 201 CW Santa Fe Av., Grants, NM 87404, United States of America
| | - H Vandenhove
- Belgian Nuclear Research Centre, Boeretang 200, 2400 Mol, Belgium
| | - J Vives I Batlle
- Belgian Nuclear Research Centre, Boeretang 200, 2400 Mol, Belgium
| | - M D Wood
- School of Science, Engineering and Environment, University of Salford, Manchester, M5 4WT, United Kingdom
| | - T L Yankovich
- International Atomic Energy Agency, Assessment and Management of Environmental Releases Unit, PO Box 100, Vienna, 1400, Austria
| | - D Copplestone
- Faculty of Natural Sciences, University of Stirling, Stirling FK9 4LA, United Kingdom
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Sadchatheeswaran S, Branch GM, Shannon LJ, Coll M, Steenbeek J. A novel approach to explicitly model the spatiotemporal impacts of structural complexity created by alien ecosystem engineers in a marine benthic environment. Ecol Modell 2021. [DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2021.109731] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/24/2022]
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14
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Steenbeek J, Buszowski J, Chagaris D, Christensen V, Coll M, Fulton EA, Katsanevakis S, Lewis KA, Mazaris AD, Macias D, de Mutsert K, Oldford G, Pennino MG, Piroddi C, Romagnoni G, Serpetti N, Shin YJ, Spence MA, Stelzenmüller V. Making spatial-temporal marine ecosystem modelling better - A perspective. ENVIRONMENTAL MODELLING & SOFTWARE : WITH ENVIRONMENT DATA NEWS 2021; 145:105209. [PMID: 34733111 PMCID: PMC8543074 DOI: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2021.105209] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 09/21/2021] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
Marine Ecosystem Models (MEMs) provide a deeper understanding of marine ecosystem dynamics. The United Nations Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development has highlighted the need to deploy these complex mechanistic spatial-temporal models to engage policy makers and society into dialogues towards sustainably managed oceans. From our shared perspective, MEMs remain underutilized because they still lack formal validation, calibration, and uncertainty quantifications that undermines their credibility and uptake in policy arenas. We explore why these shortcomings exist and how to enable the global modelling community to increase MEMs' usefulness. We identify a clear gap between proposed solutions to assess model skills, uncertainty, and confidence and their actual systematic deployment. We attribute this gap to an underlying factor that the ecosystem modelling literature largely ignores: technical issues. We conclude by proposing a conceptual solution that is cost-effective, scalable and simple, because complex spatial-temporal marine ecosystem modelling is already complicated enough.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | | | - Villy Christensen
- Ecopath International Initiative, Barcelona, Spain
- Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia, Vancouver BC, Canada
| | - Marta Coll
- Ecopath International Initiative, Barcelona, Spain
- Institute of Marine Science, ICM-CSIC, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Elizabeth A. Fulton
- CSIRO Oceans & Atmosphere, Australia
- Centre for Marine Socioecology, University of Tasmania, Australia
| | | | - Kristy A. Lewis
- University of Central Florida, National Center for Integrated Coastal Research, Department of Biology, Orlando, FL, USA
| | - Antonios D. Mazaris
- Department of Ecology, School of Biology, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Thessaloniki, Greece
| | - Diego Macias
- Institute of Marine Sciences of Andalusia, ICMAN-CSIC, Cadiz, Spain
| | - Kim de Mutsert
- The University of Southern Mississippi, Gulf Coast Research Laboratory, Ocean Springs, MS, USA
| | - Greig Oldford
- Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia, Vancouver BC, Canada
- Department of Fisheries and Oceans, Vancouver BC, Canada
| | | | - Chiara Piroddi
- European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Ispra, Italy
| | - Giovanni Romagnoni
- Leibniz Centre for Tropical Marine Research (ZMT), Bremen, Germany
- COISPA Tecnologia e Ricerca, Bari, Italy
| | - Natalia Serpetti
- European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Ispra, Italy
- National Institute of Oceanography and Applied Geophysics – OGS, Trieste, Italy
| | - Yunne-Jai Shin
- MARBEC Université Montpellier, IRD, IFREMER, CNRS, Montpellier, France
| | - Michael A. Spence
- Centre for Environment, Fisheries and Aquaculture Science, Lowestoft, UK
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15
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McCormack SA, Melbourne-Thomas J, Trebilco R, Griffith G, Hill SL, Hoover C, Johnston NM, Marina TI, Murphy EJ, Pakhomov EA, Pinkerton M, Plagányi É, Saravia LA, Subramaniam RC, Van de Putte AP, Constable AJ. Southern Ocean Food Web Modelling: Progress, Prognoses, and Future Priorities for Research and Policy Makers. Front Ecol Evol 2021. [DOI: 10.3389/fevo.2021.624763] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/13/2023] Open
Abstract
Graphical AbstractGraphical summary of multiple aspects of Southern Ocean food web structure and function including alternative energy pathways through pelagic food webs, climate change and fisheries impacts and the importance of microbial networks and benthic systems.
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16
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Vilas D, Coll M, Pedersen T, Corrales X, Filbee‐Dexter K, Wernberg T. Future trajectories of change for an Arctic deep‐sea ecosystem connected to coastal kelp forests. Restor Ecol 2021. [DOI: 10.1111/rec.13327] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/29/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Daniel Vilas
- Nature Coast Biological Station, Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences University of Florida Cedar Key FL 32625 U.S.A
- Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences Program, School of Forest Resources and Conservation University of Florida Gainesville FL 32611 U.S.A
- Renewable Marine Resources Institut de Ciències del Mar (ICM‐CSIC) P. Marítim de la Barceloneta, 37‐49 Barcelona 08003 Spain
| | - Marta Coll
- Renewable Marine Resources Institut de Ciències del Mar (ICM‐CSIC) P. Marítim de la Barceloneta, 37‐49 Barcelona 08003 Spain
- Ecopath International Initiative (EII) Barcelona Spain
| | - Torstein Pedersen
- Department of Arctic and Marine Biology UiT–The Arctic University of Norway Tromsø 9037 Norway
| | - Xavier Corrales
- Renewable Marine Resources Institut de Ciències del Mar (ICM‐CSIC) P. Marítim de la Barceloneta, 37‐49 Barcelona 08003 Spain
- AZTI, Marine Research Basque Research and Technology Alliance (BRTA) Txatxarramendi Ugartea z/g Sukarrieta 48395 Spain
| | - Karen Filbee‐Dexter
- Marine Biology section Norwegian Institute for Water Research (NIVA) Gaustadalléen 21 Oslo 0349 Norway
- Benthic Communities Research Group Institute of Marine Research Nye Flødevigveien 20 His 4817 Norway
| | - Thomas Wernberg
- Marine Biology section Norwegian Institute for Water Research (NIVA) Gaustadalléen 21 Oslo 0349 Norway
- Department of Science and Environment (DSE) Roskilde University Roskilde Denmark
- UWA Oceans Institute and School of Biological Sciences University of Western Australia Perth WA 6009 Australia
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17
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Synergistic interactions among growing stressors increase risk to an Arctic ecosystem. Nat Commun 2020; 11:6255. [PMID: 33288746 PMCID: PMC7721797 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-19899-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/31/2019] [Accepted: 10/29/2020] [Indexed: 11/08/2022] Open
Abstract
Oceans provide critical ecosystem services, but are subject to a growing number of external pressures, including overfishing, pollution, habitat destruction, and climate change. Current models typically treat stressors on species and ecosystems independently, though in reality, stressors often interact in ways that are not well understood. Here, we use a network interaction model (OSIRIS) to explicitly study stressor interactions in the Chukchi Sea (Arctic Ocean) due to its extensive climate-driven loss of sea ice and accelerated growth of other stressors, including shipping and oil exploration. The model includes numerous trophic levels ranging from phytoplankton to polar bears. We find that climate-related stressors have a larger impact on animal populations than do acute stressors like increased shipping and subsistence harvesting. In particular, organisms with a strong temperature-growth rate relationship show the greatest changes in biomass as interaction strength increased, but also exhibit the greatest variability. Neglecting interactions between stressors vastly underestimates the risk of population crashes. Our results indicate that models must account for stressor interactions to enable responsible management and decision-making.
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18
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Püts M, Taylor M, Núñez-Riboni I, Steenbeek J, Stäbler M, Möllmann C, Kempf A. Insights on integrating habitat preferences in process-oriented ecological models – a case study of the southern North Sea. Ecol Modell 2020. [DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2020.109189] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/26/2022]
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19
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OSIRIS: A model for integrating the effects of multiple stressors on marine ecosystems. J Theor Biol 2020; 493:110211. [PMID: 32097609 DOI: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2020.110211] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/13/2019] [Revised: 02/19/2020] [Accepted: 02/21/2020] [Indexed: 11/23/2022]
Abstract
While much has been learnt about the impacts of specific stressors on individual marine organisms, considerable debate exists over the nature and impact of multiple simultaneous stressors on both individual species and marine ecosystems. We describe a modelling tool (OSIRIS) for integrating the effects of multiple simultaneous stressors. The model is relatively computationally light, and demonstrated using a coarse-grained, non-spatial and simplified representation of a temperate marine ecosystem. This version is capable of reproducing a wide range of dynamic responses. Results indicate the degree to which interactions are synergistic is crucial in determining sensitivity to forcing, particularly for the higher trophic levels, which can respond non-linearly to stronger forcing. Stronger synergistic interactions sensitize the system to variability in forcing, and combinations of stronger forcing, noise and synergies between effects are particularly potent. This work also underlines the significant potential risk incurred in treating stressors on ecosystems as individual and additive.
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20
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Evaluating fisheries conservation strategies in the socio-ecological system: A grid-based dynamic model to link spatial conservation prioritization tools with tactical fisheries management. PLoS One 2020; 15:e0230946. [PMID: 32243469 PMCID: PMC7122822 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0230946] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/05/2019] [Accepted: 03/12/2020] [Indexed: 11/30/2022] Open
Abstract
Spatial conservation prioritization concerns trade-offs between marine conservation and resource exploitation. This approach has been increasingly used to devise spatial management strategies for fisheries because of its simplicity in the optimization model and less data requirement compared to complex dynamic models. However, most of the prioritization is based on static models or algorithms; whose solutions need to be evaluated in a dynamic approach, considering the high uncertainty and opportunity costs associated with their implementation. We developed a framework that integrates species distribution models, spatial conservation prioritization tools and a general grid-based dynamic model (Grid-DM) to support evaluation of ecological and economic trade-offs of candidate conservation plans. The Grid-DM is spatially explicit and has a tactical management focus on single species. We applied the Grid-DM to small yellow croaker (Larimichthys polyactis) in Haizhou Bay, China and validated its spatial and temporal performances against historical observations. It was linked to a spatial conservation prioritization tool Marxan to illustrate how the model can be used for conservation strategy evaluation. The simulation model demonstrated effectiveness in capturing the spatio-temporal dynamics of the target fishery as well as the socio-ecological effects of conservation measures. We conclude that the model has the capability and flexibility to address various forms of uncertainties, simulate the dynamics of a targeted fishery, and to evaluate biological and socioeconomic impacts of management plans. The modelling platform can further inform scientists and policy makers of management alternatives screening and adaptive conservation planning.
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21
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Advances and challenges in modelling the impacts of invasive alien species on aquatic ecosystems. Biol Invasions 2019. [DOI: 10.1007/s10530-019-02160-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/25/2022]
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22
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Bauer B, Gustafsson BG, Hyytiäinen K, Meier HEM, Müller-Karulis B, Saraiva S, Tomczak MT. Food web and fisheries in the future Baltic Sea. AMBIO 2019; 48:1337-1349. [PMID: 31350721 PMCID: PMC6814650 DOI: 10.1007/s13280-019-01229-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/12/2018] [Revised: 01/08/2019] [Accepted: 07/13/2019] [Indexed: 05/30/2023]
Abstract
We developed numerical simulations of potential future ecological states of the Baltic Sea ecosystem at the end of century under five scenarios. We used a spatial food web (Ecospace) model, forced by a physical-biogeochemical model. The scenarios are built on consistent storylines that describe plausible developments of climatic and socioeconomic factors in the Baltic Sea region. Modelled species diversity and fish catches are driven by climate- and nutrient load-related changes in habitat quality and by fisheries management strategies. Our results suggest that a scenario including low greenhouse gas concentrations and nutrient pollution and ecologically focused fisheries management results in high biodiversity and catch value. On the other hand, scenarios envisioning increasing societal inequality or economic growth based on fossil fuels, high greenhouse gas emissions and high nutrient loads result in decreased habitat quality and diminished biodiversity. Under the latter scenarios catches are high but they predominantly consist of lower-valued fish.
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Affiliation(s)
- Barbara Bauer
- Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre, 106 91, Stockholm, Sweden
- Institute of Ecology, Friedrich Schiller University Jena, Jena, Germany
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Deutscher Platz 5e, 04103 Leipzig, Germany
| | - Bo G. Gustafsson
- Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre, 106 91, Stockholm, Sweden
- Tvärminne Zoological Station, University of Helsinki, J.A. Palménin tie 260, Hanko, Finland
| | - Kari Hyytiäinen
- Department of Economics and Management, University of Helsinki, P.O. Box 27, 00014 Helsinki, Finland
| | - H. E. Markus Meier
- Leibniz Institute for Baltic Sea Research Warnemünde, 18119 Rostock, Germany
- Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrköping, Sweden
| | - Bärbel Müller-Karulis
- Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre, 106 91, Stockholm, Sweden
- Latvian Institute of Aquatic Ecology, Voleru iela 4, 1007 Riga, Latvia
| | - Sofia Saraiva
- Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrköping, Sweden
- Instituto Superior Técnico, Environment and Energy Section, University of Lisbon, Lisbon, Portugal
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23
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Mizsei E, Boros Z, Lovas‐Kiss Á, Szepesváry C, Szabolcs M, Rák G, Ujszegi J, Gál Z, Lengyel S, Puskás G. A trait‐based framework for understanding predator–prey relationships: Trait matching between a specialist snake and its insect prey. Funct Ecol 2019. [DOI: 10.1111/1365-2435.13446] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Edvárd Mizsei
- Department of Tisza River Research Danube Research Institute Centre for Ecological Research Hungarian Academy of Sciences Debrecen Hungary
- Department of Ecology University of Debrecen Debrecen Hungary
| | | | - Ádám Lovas‐Kiss
- Department of Tisza River Research Danube Research Institute Centre for Ecological Research Hungarian Academy of Sciences Debrecen Hungary
| | - Csaba Szepesváry
- Department of Tisza River Research Danube Research Institute Centre for Ecological Research Hungarian Academy of Sciences Debrecen Hungary
- GINOP Sustainable Ecosystems Group Centre for Ecological Research Hungarian Academy of Sciences Tihany Hungary
| | - Márton Szabolcs
- Department of Tisza River Research Danube Research Institute Centre for Ecological Research Hungarian Academy of Sciences Debrecen Hungary
- GINOP Sustainable Ecosystems Group Centre for Ecological Research Hungarian Academy of Sciences Tihany Hungary
| | - Gergő Rák
- Department of Ecology University of Veterinary Medicine Budapest Hungary
| | - János Ujszegi
- Lendület Evolutionary Ecology Research Group Plant Protection Institute Centre for Agricultural Research Hungarian Academy of Sciences Budapest Hungary
| | - Zoltán Gál
- NARIC Agricultural Biotechnology Institute Gödöllő Hungary
| | - Szabolcs Lengyel
- Department of Tisza River Research Danube Research Institute Centre for Ecological Research Hungarian Academy of Sciences Debrecen Hungary
- GINOP Sustainable Ecosystems Group Centre for Ecological Research Hungarian Academy of Sciences Tihany Hungary
| | - Gellért Puskás
- Department of Zoology Hungarian Natural History Museum Budapest Hungary
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24
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Coll M, Pennino MG, Steenbeek J, Sole J, Bellido J. Predicting marine species distributions: Complementarity of food-web and Bayesian hierarchical modelling approaches. Ecol Modell 2019. [DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2019.05.005] [Citation(s) in RCA: 29] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/27/2022]
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25
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Dahood A, Watters GM, de Mutsert K. Using sea-ice to calibrate a dynamic trophic model for the Western Antarctic Peninsula. PLoS One 2019; 14:e0214814. [PMID: 30939156 PMCID: PMC6445414 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0214814] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/11/2018] [Accepted: 03/20/2019] [Indexed: 11/19/2022] Open
Abstract
The pelagic ecosystems of the Western Antarctic Peninsula are dynamic and changing rapidly in the face of sustained warming. There is already evidence that warming may be impacting the food web. Antarctic krill, Euphausia superba, is an ice-associated species that is both an important prey item and the target of the only commercial fishery operating in the region. The goal of this study is to develop a dynamic trophic model for the region that includes the impact of the sea-ice regime on krill and krill predators. Such a model may be helpful to fisheries managers as they develop new management strategies in the face of continued sea-ice loss. A mass balanced food-web model (Ecopath) and time dynamic simulations (Ecosim) were created. The Ecopath model includes eight currently monitored species as single species to facilitate its future development into a model that could be used for marine protected area planning in the region. The Ecosim model is calibrated for the years 1996-2012. The successful calibration represents an improvement over existing Ecopath models for the region. Simulations indicate that the role of sea ice is both central and complex. The simulations are only able to recreate observed biomass trends for the monitored species when metrics describing the sea-ice regime are used to force key predator-prey interactions, and to drive the biomasses of Antarctic krill and the fish species Gobionotothen gibberifrons. This model is ready to be used for exploring results from sea-ice scenarios or to be developed into a spatial model that informs discussions regarding the design of marine protected areas in the region.
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Affiliation(s)
- Adrian Dahood
- Department of Environmental Science and Policy, George Mason University, Fairfax, Virginia, United States of America
- Antarctic Ecosystem Research Division, Southwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, La Jolla, California, United States of America
- Institute of Marine Sciences, University of California Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, California, United States of America
- * E-mail:
| | - George M. Watters
- Antarctic Ecosystem Research Division, Southwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, La Jolla, California, United States of America
| | - Kim de Mutsert
- Department of Environmental Science and Policy, George Mason University, Fairfax, Virginia, United States of America
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26
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Adebola T, Mutsert K. Spatial simulation of redistribution of fishing effort in Nigerian coastal waters using Ecospace. Ecosphere 2019. [DOI: 10.1002/ecs2.2623] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/11/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Tunde Adebola
- Department of Environmental Science and Policy George Mason University Fairfax Virginia 22030 USA
| | - Kim Mutsert
- Department of Environmental Science and Policy George Mason University Fairfax Virginia 22030 USA
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27
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Corrales X, Coll M, Ofir E, Heymans JJ, Steenbeek J, Goren M, Edelist D, Gal G. Future scenarios of marine resources and ecosystem conditions in the Eastern Mediterranean under the impacts of fishing, alien species and sea warming. Sci Rep 2018; 8:14284. [PMID: 30250047 PMCID: PMC6155163 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-018-32666-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 29] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/08/2018] [Accepted: 09/07/2018] [Indexed: 11/17/2022] Open
Abstract
Using a temporal-dynamic calibrated Ecosim food web model, we assess the effects of future changes on marine resources and ecosystem conditions of the Israeli Mediterranean continental shelf. This region has been intensely invaded by Indo-Pacific species. The region is exposed to extreme environmental conditions, is subjected to high rates of climate change and has experienced intense fishing pressure. We test the impacts of a new set of fishing regulations currently being implemented, a continued increase in sea temperatures following IPCC projections, and a continued increase in alien species biomass. We first investigate the impacts of the stressors separately, and then we combine them to evaluate their cumulative effects. Our results show overall potential future benefits of fishing effort reductions, and detrimental impacts of increasing sea temperature and increasing biomass of alien species. Cumulative scenarios suggest that the beneficial effects of fisheries reduction may be dampened by the impact of increasing sea temperature and alien species when acting together. These results illustrate the importance of including stressors other than fisheries, such as climate change and biological invasions, in an ecosystem-based management approach. These results support the need for reducing local and regional stressors, such as fishing and biological invasions, in order to promote resilience to sea warming.
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Affiliation(s)
- X Corrales
- Kinneret Limnological Laboratory, Israel Oceanographic & Limnological Research, PO Box 447, Migdal, Israel. .,Institut de Ciències del Mar (ICM-CSIC), Passeig Marítim de la Barceloneta, n° 37-49, 08003, Barcelona, Spain.
| | - M Coll
- Institut de Ciències del Mar (ICM-CSIC), Passeig Marítim de la Barceloneta, n° 37-49, 08003, Barcelona, Spain.,Ecopath International Initiative Research Association, Barcelona, Spain
| | - E Ofir
- Kinneret Limnological Laboratory, Israel Oceanographic & Limnological Research, PO Box 447, Migdal, Israel
| | - J J Heymans
- Scottish Association for Marine Science, Scottish Marine Institute, Oban, PA, 371QA, Scotland.,European Marine Board, Wandelaarkaai 7, Oostende, 8400, Belgium
| | - J Steenbeek
- Institut de Ciències del Mar (ICM-CSIC), Passeig Marítim de la Barceloneta, n° 37-49, 08003, Barcelona, Spain.,Ecopath International Initiative Research Association, Barcelona, Spain
| | - M Goren
- Department of Zoology and The Steinhardt Museum of Natural History, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv, 69978, Israel
| | - D Edelist
- Leon Recanati Institute for Marine Studies, Charney School for Marine Sciences, Faculty of Natural Sciences, University of Haifa, Mont Carmel, Haifa, 31905, Israel
| | - G Gal
- Kinneret Limnological Laboratory, Israel Oceanographic & Limnological Research, PO Box 447, Migdal, Israel
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28
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Using ecosystem modeling to evaluate trade-offs in coastal management: Effects of large-scale river diversions on fish and fisheries. Ecol Modell 2017. [DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2017.06.029] [Citation(s) in RCA: 34] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/18/2022]
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29
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Katsanevakis S, Mackelworth P, Coll M, Fraschetti S, Mačić V, Giakoumi S, Jones P, Levin N, Albano P, Badalamenti F, Brennan R, Claudet J, Culibrk D, D'Anna G, Deidun A, Evagelopoulos A, García-Charton J, Goldsborough D, Holcer D, Jimenez C, Kark S, Sørensen T, Lazar B, Martin G, Mazaris A, Micheli F, Milner-Gulland E, Pipitone C, Portman M, Pranovi F, Rilov G, Smith R, Stelzenmüller V, Vogiatzakis I, Winters G. Advancing marine conservation in European and contiguous seas with the MarCons Action. RESEARCH IDEAS AND OUTCOMES 2017. [DOI: 10.3897/rio.3.e11884] [Citation(s) in RCA: 25] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
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30
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de Mutsert K, Steenbeek J, Lewis K, Buszowski J, Cowan JH, Christensen V. Exploring effects of hypoxia on fish and fisheries in the northern Gulf of Mexico using a dynamic spatially explicit ecosystem model. Ecol Modell 2016. [DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2015.10.013] [Citation(s) in RCA: 40] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/22/2022]
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31
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Villasante S, Arreguín-Sánchez F, Heymans J, Libralato S, Piroddi C, Christensen V, Coll M. Modelling marine ecosystems using the Ecopath with Ecosim food web approach: New insights to address complex dynamics after 30 years of developments. Ecol Modell 2016. [DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2016.04.017] [Citation(s) in RCA: 20] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/29/2022]
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32
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Alexander KA, Meyjes SA, Heymans JJ. Spatial ecosystem modelling of marine renewable energy installations: Gauging the utility of Ecospace. Ecol Modell 2016. [DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2016.01.016] [Citation(s) in RCA: 21] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
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33
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34
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Employing ecosystem models and geographic information systems (GIS) to investigate the response of changing marsh edge on historical biomass of estuarine nekton in Barataria Bay, Louisiana, USA. Ecol Modell 2016. [DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2016.01.017] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/20/2022]
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35
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Coll M, Steenbeek J, Sole J, Palomera I, Christensen V. Modelling the cumulative spatial–temporal effects of environmental drivers and fishing in a NW Mediterranean marine ecosystem. Ecol Modell 2016. [DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2016.03.020] [Citation(s) in RCA: 43] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
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36
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Global overview of the applications of the Ecopath with Ecosim modeling approach using the EcoBase models repository. Ecol Modell 2015. [DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2015.01.025] [Citation(s) in RCA: 156] [Impact Index Per Article: 15.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/20/2022]
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37
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The Ecospace model applied to the North Sea: Evaluating spatial predictions with fish biomass and fishing effort data. Ecol Modell 2015. [DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2014.12.016] [Citation(s) in RCA: 23] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/21/2022]
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38
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Evaluation of the effects on rockfish and kelp artisanal fisheries of the proposed Mejillones Peninsula marine protected area (northern Chile, SE Pacific coast). Ecol Modell 2015. [DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2014.11.012] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/22/2022]
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