Disentangling the Legacies of Climate and Management on Tree Growth

Individual tree diameter growth modelling for natural secondary forest in Changbai Mountains, Northeast China

Individual modelling is a foundational approach to study the natural forest growth and in this paper, we develop a serial distance-depended individual tree model for some species in natural forest which would provide prediction and characteristics for natural species. The data used to develop individual model for natural mixed forests were collected from 712 remeasured 10-year periodic permanent sample plots of in Baihe Forest Bureau of Changbai Mountains, northeast China. Based on analyzing relationship between diameter increment of individual trees with tree size, competitive status, and site condition and finding out the major independent variables, the growth models for individual trees of 15 species in the natural mixed forests, that have good predicting precision, and easily applicable, were developed using stepwise regression method. The individual growth model developed in this study can reflect the tree increment of 15 species and be generally well suited for simulating tree and stand growth for natural mixed forests in Changbai Mountains. The research results for individual trees growth model of each species showed that main variable to influence on diameter increment of individual trees for natural mixed forests were tree size (D) and then competition index. The site condition was not related with diameter increment. The natural logarithm of DBH (lnD) and square diameter (D2) were included in the predicting models of diameter increment for all 15 species. The diameter increment was directly proportional to tree diameter for each species. For the competitive indexes in growth model, the relative diameter (RD), canopy closure (P), and the ratio of diameter of subject tree with maximum diameter (DDM) were related to diameter increment and the stand density measures were not significantly influenced on diameter increment. As canopy closure increase, tree increment decreases. The site conditions were performance less of factors in increment predictions in the model.

Identifying drivers of non-stationary climate-growth relationships of European beech

The future performance of the widely abundant European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) across its ecological amplitude is uncertain. Although beech is considered drought-sensitive and thus negatively affected by drought events, scientific evidence indicating increasing drought vulnerability under climate change on a cross-regional scale remains elusive. While evaluating changes in climate sensitivity of secondary growth offers a promising avenue, studies from productive, closed-canopy forests suffer from knowledge gaps, especially regarding the natural variability of climate sensitivity and how it relates to radial growth as an indicator of tree vitality. Since beech is sensitive to drought, we in this study use a drought index as a climate variable to account for the combined effects of temperature and water availability and explore how the drought sensitivity of secondary growth varies temporally in dependence on growth variability, growth trends, and climatic water availability across the species' ecological amplitude. Our results show that drought sensitivity is highly variable and non-stationary, though consistently higher at dry sites compared to moist sites. Increasing drought sensitivity can largely be explained by increasing climatic aridity, especially as it is exacerbated by climate change and trees' rank progression within forest communities, as (co-)dominant trees are more sensitive to extra-canopy climatic conditions than trees embedded in understories. However, during the driest periods of the 20th century, growth showed clear signs of being decoupled from climate. This may indicate fundamental changes in system behavior and be early-warning signals of decreasing drought tolerance. The multiple significant interaction terms in our model elucidate the complexity of European beech's drought sensitivity, which needs to be taken into consideration when assessing this species' response to climate change.

Revealing legacy effects of extreme droughts on tree growth of oaks across the Northern Hemisphere

Forests are undergoing increasing risks of drought-induced tree mortality. Species replacement patterns following mortality may have a significant impact on the global carbon cycle. Among major hardwoods, deciduous oaks (Quercus spp.) are increasingly reported as replacing dying conifers across the Northern Hemisphere. Yet, our knowledge on the growth responses of these oaks to drought is incomplete, especially regarding post-drought legacy effects. The objectives of this study were to determine the occurrence, duration, and magnitude of legacy effects of extreme droughts and how that vary across species, sites, and drought characteristics. The legacy effects were quantified by the deviation of observed from expected radial growth indices in the period 1940-2016. We used stand-level chronologies from 458 sites and 21 oak species primarily from Europe, north-eastern America, and eastern Asia. We found that legacy effects of droughts could last from 1 to 5 years after the drought and were more prolonged in dry sites. Negative legacy effects (i.e., lower growth than expected) were more prevalent after repetitive droughts in dry sites. The effect of repetitive drought was stronger in Mediterranean oaks especially in Quercus faginea. Species-specific analyses revealed that Q. petraea and Q. macrocarpa from dry sites were more negatively affected by the droughts while growth of several oak species from mesic sites increased during post-drought years. Sites showing positive correlations to winter temperature showed little to no growth depression after drought, whereas sites with a positive correlation to previous summer water balance showed decreased growth. This may indicate that although winter warming favors tree growth during droughts, previous-year summer precipitation may predispose oak trees to current-year extreme droughts. Our results revealed a massive role of repetitive droughts in determining legacy effects and highlighted how growth sensitivity to climate, drought seasonality and species-specific traits drive the legacy effects in deciduous oak species.