Fighting against COVID-19: what operations research can help and the sense-and-respond framework

Monitoring and evaluation practices and operational research during public health emergencies in southeast Asia region (2012-2022) - a systematic review

This systematic review aimed to explore the monitoring and evaluation (M&E) and operational research (OR) practices during public health emergencies (PHE) in the southeast Asian region (SEAR) over the last decade. We searched electronic databases and grey literature sources for studies published between 2012 and 2022. The studies written in English were included, and a narrative synthesis was undertaken. A total of 29 studies were included in this review. Among these 25 studies documented M&E and four studies documented OR practices. The majority of the studies were from India and Bangladesh, with no evidence found from Sri Lanka, Bhutan, Myanmar, and Timor-Leste. M&E of surveillance programs were identified among which PHE due to COVID-19 was most prevalent. M&E was conducted in response to COVID-19, cholera, Nipah, Ebola, Candida auris, and hepatitis A. OR practice was minimal and reported from India and Indonesia. India conducted OR on COVID-19 and malaria, whereas Indonesia focused on COVID-19 and influenza. While most SEAR countries have mechanisms for conducting M&E, there is a noticeable limitation in OR practices. There is a compelling need to develop a standard framework for M&E. Additionally, enhancing private sector engagement is crucial for strengthening preparedness against PHE. Furthermore, there is a necessity to increase awareness about the importance of conducting M&E and OR during PHE.

A dynamic approach to supply chain reconfiguration and ripple effect analysis in an epidemic

The COVID-19 pandemic has illustrated the unprecedented challenges of ensuring the continuity of operations in a supply chain as suppliers' and their suppliers stop producing due the spread of infection, leading to a degradation of downstream customer service levels in a ripple effect. In this paper, we contextualize a dynamic approach and propose an optimal control model for supply chain reconfiguration and ripple effect analysis integrated with an epidemic dynamics model. We provide supply chain managers with the optimal choice over a planning horizon among subsets of interchangeable suppliers and corresponding orders; this will maximize demand satisfaction given their prices, lead times, exposure to infection, and upstream suppliers' risk exposure. Numerical illustrations show that our prescriptive forward-looking model can help reconfigure a supply chain and mitigate the ripple effect due to reduced production because of suppliers' infected workers. A risk aversion factor incorporates a measure of supplier risk exposure at the upstream echelons. We examine three scenarios: (a) infection limits the capacity of suppliers, (b) the pandemic recedes but not at the same pace for all suppliers, and (c) infection waves affect the capacity of some suppliers, while others are in a recovery phase. We illustrate through a case study how our model can be immediately deployed in manufacturing or retail supply chains since the data are readily accessible from suppliers and health authorities. This work opens new avenues for prescriptive models in operations management and the study of viable supply chains by combining optimal control and epidemiological models.

A data-driven optimization model to response to COVID-19 pandemic: a case study

COVID-19 is a highly prevalent disease that has led to numerous predicaments for healthcare systems worldwide. Owing to the significant influx of patients and limited resources of health services, there have been several limitations associated with patients' hospitalization. These limitations can cause an increment in the COVID-19-related mortality due to the lack of appropriate medical services. They can also elevate the risk of infection in the rest of the population. The present study aims to investigate a two-phase approach to designing a supply chain network for hospitalizing patients in the existing and temporary hospitals, efficiently distributing medications and medical items needed by patients, and managing the waste created in hospitals. Since the number of future patients is uncertain, in the first phase, trained Artificial Neural Networks with historical data forecast the number of patients in future periods and generate scenarios. Through the use of the K-Means method, these scenarios are reduced. In the second phase, a multi-objective, multi-period, data-driven two-stage stochastic programming is developed using the acquired scenarios in the previous phase concerning the uncertainty and disruption in facilities. The objectives of the proposed model include maximizing the minimum allocation-to-demand ratio, minimizing the total risk of disease spread, and minimizing the total transportation time. Furthermore, a real case study is investigated in Tehran, the capital of Iran. The results showed that the areas with the highest population density and no facilities near them have been selected for the location of temporary facilities. Among temporary facilities, temporary hospitals can allocate up to 2.6% of the total demand, which puts pressure on the existing hospitals to be removed. Furthermore, the results indicated that the allocation-to-demand ratio can remain at an ideal level when disruptions occur by considering temporary facilities. Our analyses focus on: (1) Examining demand forecasting error and generated scenarios in the first phase, (2) exploring the impact of demand parameters on the allocation-to-demand ratio, total time and total risk, (3) investigating the strategy of utilizing temporary hospitals to address sudden changes in demand, (4) evaluating the effect of disruption to facilities on the supply chain network.

Efficiency of government policy during the COVID-19 pandemic

We introduce country-month indices of efficiency of government policy in dealing with the COVID-19 pandemic. Our indices cover 81 countries and the period from May 2020 to November 2021. Our framework assumes that governments impose stringent policies (listed in the Oxford COVID-19 Containment and Health Index) with the single goal of saving lives. We find that positive and significant correlates of our new indices are institutions, democratic principles, political stability, trust, high public spending in health, female participation in the workplace, and economic equality. Within the efficient jurisdictions, the most efficient ones are those with cultural characteristics of high patience.

Optimal timing of non-pharmaceutical interventions during an epidemic

In response to the recent outbreak of the SARS-CoV-2 virus governments have aimed to reduce the virus's spread through, inter alia, non-pharmaceutical intervention. We address the question when such measures should be implemented and, once implemented, when to remove them. These issues are viewed through a real-options lens and we develop an SIRD-like continuous-time Markov chain model to analyze a sequence of options: the option to intervene and introduce measures and, after intervention has started, the option to remove these. Measures can be imposed multiple times. We implement our model using estimates from empirical studies and, under fairly general assumptions, our main conclusions are that: (1) measures should be put in place not long after the first infections occur; (2) if the epidemic is discovered when there are many infected individuals already, then it is optimal never to introduce measures; (3) once the decision to introduce measures has been taken, these should stay in place until the number of susceptible or infected members of the population is close to zero; (4) it is never optimal to introduce a tier system to phase-in measures but it is optimal to use a tier system to phase-out measures; (5) a more infectious variant may reduce the duration of measures being in place; (6) the risk of infections being brought in by travelers should be curbed even when no other measures are in place. These results are robust to several variations of our base-case model.

Dynamic planning of a two-dose vaccination campaign with uncertain supplies

The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has led public health authorities to face the unprecedented challenge of planning a global vaccination campaign, which for most protocols entails the administration of two doses, separated by a bounded but flexible time interval. The partial immunity already offered by the first dose and the high levels of uncertainty in the vaccine supplies have been characteristic of most of the vaccination campaigns implemented worldwide and made the planning of such interventions extremely complex. Motivated by this compelling challenge, we propose a stochastic optimization framework for optimally scheduling a two-dose vaccination campaign in the presence of uncertain supplies, taking into account constraints on the interval between the two doses and on the capacity of the healthcare system. The proposed framework seeks to maximize the vaccination coverage, considering the different levels of immunization obtained with partial (one dose only) and complete vaccination (two doses). We cast the optimization problem as a convex second-order cone program, which can be efficiently solved through numerical techniques. We demonstrate the potential of our framework on a case study calibrated on the COVID-19 vaccination campaign in Italy. The proposed method shows good performance when unrolled in a sliding-horizon fashion, thereby offering a powerful tool to help public health authorities calibrate the vaccination campaign, pursuing a trade-off between efficacy and the risk associated with shortages in supply.

An optimization framework for COVID-19 vaccine allocation and inventory management: A case study

As the novel coronavirus pandemic wreaked havoc globally, governments have implemented massive vaccination programs to tackle it. However, since the pandemic's emergence moves beyond the second year, some issues have stymied vaccination programs, including vaccine hesitancy, vaccine distribution inequality, new strains of the virus, and a possibility that the virus enters a stage of a requirement for cyclical vaccination. These challenges highlight the need for an appropriate mass COVID-19 vaccination program. Therefore, we attempt to address this problem by developing a bi-objective integrated vaccine allocation and inventory management framework. The goal is to minimize the system costs while maximizing the vaccination service level. Several important factors, such as multiple types of vaccines, the vaccines' perishability concept, demand uncertainty, and motivational strategy, have been addressed using dynamic planning. Besides that, the model development mechanism is carried out to be compatible and applicable to the current general vaccination program policies, forcing few strategic changes. Then, a case study concerning the vaccination program of the city of Mashhad in Iran is applied to the model. The results demonstrated significant advantages in total cost, vaccine shortage, and wastage compared to the current policy. Finally, the Lagrangian relaxation method is implemented on the model to strengthen further its capacity to handle larger-scale problems.

Internet of Things (IoT)—blockchain-enabled pharmaceutical supply chain resilience in the post-pandemic era

During the COVID-19 pandemic, the current operating environment of pharmaceutical supply chain (PSC) has rapidly changed and faced increasing risks of disruption. The Internet of Things (IoT) and blockchain not only help enhance the efficiency of PSC operations in the information technology domain but also address complex related issues and improve the visibility, flexibility, and transparency of these operations. Although IoT and blockchain have been widely examined in the areas of supply chain and logistics management, further work on PSC is expected by the public to enhance its resilience. To respond to this call, this paper combines a literature review with semi-structured interviews to investigate the characteristics of PSC, the key aspects affecting PSC, and the challenges faced by PSC in the post-pandemic era. An IoT–blockchain-integrated hospital-side oriented PSC management model is also developed. This paper highlights how IoT and blockchain technology can enhance supply chain resilience and provides a reference on how PSC members can cope with the associated risks.

Pharmacogenomics driven decision support prototype with machine learning: A framework for improving patient care

Introduction

A growing number of healthcare providers make complex treatment decisions guided by electronic health record (EHR) software interfaces. Many interfaces integrate multiple sources of data (e.g., labs, pharmacy, diagnoses) successfully, though relatively few have incorporated genetic data.

Method

This study utilizes informatics methods with predictive modeling to create and validate algorithms to enable informed pharmacogenomic decision-making at the point of care in near real-time. The proposed framework integrates EHR and genetic data relevant to the patient's current medications including decision support mechanisms based on predictive modeling. We created a prototype with EHR and linked genetic data from the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA), the largest integrated healthcare system in the US. The EHR data included diagnoses, medication fills, and outpatient clinic visits for 2,600 people with HIV and matched uninfected controls linked to prototypic genetic data (variations in single or multiple positions in the DNA sequence). We then mapped the medications that patients were prescribed to medications defined in the drug-gene interaction mapping of the Clinical Pharmacogenomics Implementation Consortium's (CPIC) level A (i.e., sufficient evidence for at least one prescribing action) guidelines that predict adverse events. CPIC is a National Institute of Health funded group of experts who develop evidence based pharmacogenomic guidelines. Preventable adverse events (PAE) can be defined as a harmful outcome from an intervention that could have been prevented. For this study, we focused on potential PAEs resulting from a medication-gene interaction.

Results

The final model showed AUC scores of 0.972 with an F1 score of 0.97 with genetic data as compared to 0.766 and 0.73 respectively, without genetic data integration.

Discussion

Over 98% of people in the cohort were on at least one medication with CPIC level a guideline in their lifetime. We compared predictive power of machine learning models to detect a PAE between five modeling methods: Random Forest, Support Vector Machine (SVM), Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), K Nearest neighbors (KNN), and Decision Tree. We found that XGBoost performed best for the prototype when genetic data was added to the framework and improved prediction of PAE. We compared area under the curve (AUC) between the models in the testing dataset.

Mining voices from self-expressed messages on social-media: Diagnostics of mental distress during COVID-19

The COVID-19 pandemic has had a severe impact on mankind, causing physical suffering and deaths across the globe. Even those who have not contracted the virus have experienced its far-reaching impacts, particularly on their mental health. The increased incidences of psychological problems, anxiety associated with the infection, social restrictions, economic downturn, etc., are likely to aggravate with the virus spread and leave a longer impact on humankind. These reasons in aggregation have raised concerns on mental health and created a need to identify novel precursors of depression and suicidal tendencies during COVID-19. Identifying factors affecting mental health and causing suicidal ideation is of paramount importance for timely intervention and suicide prevention. This study, thus, bridges this gap by utilizing computational intelligence and Natural Language Processing (NLP) to unveil the factors underlying mental health issues. We observed that the pandemic and subsequent lockdown anxiety emerged as significant factors leading to poor mental health outcomes after the onset of COVID-19. Consistent with previous works, we found that psychological disorders have remained pre-eminent. Interestingly, financial burden was found to cause suicidal ideation before the pandemic, while it led to higher odds of depressive (non-suicidal) thoughts for individuals who lost their jobs. This study offers significant implications for health policy makers, governments, psychiatric practitioners, and psychologists.

National IoMT platform strategy portfolio decision model under the COVID-19 environment: based on the financial and non-financial value view

The Internet of Medical Things (IoMT) is an emerging technology in the healthcare revolution which provides real-time healthcare information communication and reasonable medical resource allocation. The COVID-19 pandemic has had a significant effect on people's lives and has affected healthcare capacities. It is important for integrated IoMT platform development to overcome the global pandemic challenges. This study proposed the national IoMT platform strategy portfolio decision-making model from the non-financial (technology, organization, environment) and financial perspectives. As a solution to the decision problem, initially, the decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL) technology were employed to capture the cause-effect relationship based on the perspectives and criteria obtained from the insight of an expert team. The analytic network process (ANP) and pairwise comparisons were then used to determine the weights for the strategy. Simultaneously, this study incorporated IoMT platform resource limitations into the zero-one goal programming (ZOGP) method to obtain an optimal portfolio selection for IoMT platform strategy planning. The results showed that the integrated MCDM method produced reasonable results for selecting the most appropriate IoMT platform strategy portfolio when considering resource constraints such as system installation costs, consultant fees, infrastructure costs, reduction of medical staff demand, and improvement rates for diagnosis efficiency. The decision-making model of the IoMT platform in this study was conclusive and significantly compelling to aid government decision makers in concentrating their efforts on planning IoMT strategies in response to various pandemic and medical resource allocations.

Big data analytics and the effects of government restrictions and prohibitions in the COVID-19 pandemic on emergency department sustainable operations

Grounded in dynamic capabilities, this study mainly aims to model emergency departments' (EDs) sustainable operations in the current situation caused by the COVID-19 pandemic by using emerging big data analytics (BDA) technologies. Since government may impose some restrictions and prohibitions in coping with emergencies to protect the functioning of EDs, it also aims to investigate how such policies affect ED operations. The proposed model is designed by collecting big data from multiple sources and implementing BDA to transform it into action for providing efficient responses to emergencies. The model is validated in modeling the daily number of patients, the average daily length of stay (LOS), and daily numbers of laboratory tests and radiologic imaging tests ordered. It is applied in a case study representing a large-scale ED. The data set covers a seven-month period which collectively means the periods before COVID-19 and during COVID-19, and includes data from 238,152 patients. Comparing statistics on daily patient volumes, average LOS, and resource usage, both before and during the COVID-19 pandemic, we found that patient characteristics and demographics changed in COVID-19. While 18.92% and 27.22% of the patients required laboratory and radiologic imaging tests before-COVID-19 study period, these percentages were increased to 31.52% and 39.46% during-COVID-19 study period. By analyzing the effects of policy-based variables in the model, we concluded that policies might cause sharp decreases in patient volumes. While the total number of patients arriving before-COVID-19 was 158,347, it decreased to 79,805 during-COVID-19. On the other hand, while the average daily LOS was 117.53 min before-COVID-19, this value was calculated to be 165,03 min during-COVID-19 study period. We finally showed that the model had a prediction accuracy of between 80 to 95%. While proposing an efficient model for sustainable operations management in EDs for dynamically changing environments caused by emergencies, it empirically investigates the impact of different policies on ED operations.

Examining collaborative buyer-supplier relationships and social sustainability in the "new normal" era: the moderating effects of justice and big data analytical intelligence

The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in a slew of new business practices that have put the society and environment under strain. This has drawn the attention of supply chain researchers working to address the COVID-19 pandemic's looming social sustainability issues. Prior literature has indicated that collaborative relationships improve organizational performance. Over the past years, problems related to justice are reported (e.g., between Walmart Canada and the Lego group), which might negatively affect the buyer-supplier relationship. In the new normal, the effect of justice on collaborative buyer-supplier relationships on social sustainability in the COVID-19 context is obviously essential but under-explored. The current study examines buyer-supplier collaborative relationships' influence on social sustainability under the moderating effect of justice and big data analytical intelligence. In this paper, we employ the stakeholder resource-based view, loose coupling theory, and resource dependency theory as the theoretical lens to establish the research hypotheses. Using primary survey data collected from supply chain practitioners in South Africa, hypothesis testing is done using a covariance-based structural equation modelling technique. To enhance research rigor, we have checked the dyadic perspectives of both buyers and suppliers. Our empirical results reveal that collaborative buyer-supplier relationships positively influence supplier social sustainability in the new normal era. However, it is relatively stronger from the suppliers' perspective when compared with the buyers' perspective. Secondly, the moderating effect of perceptions of organizational justice and big data analytical intelligence on the relationship between collaborative buyer-supplier relationships and supplier social sustainability is also statistically significant. However, it is relatively stronger from the buyers' perspective when compared with the suppliers' perspective. These are major findings of this study. Theoretical and managerial implications are further discussed.

Robust optimization model of anti-epidemic supply chain under technological innovation: learning from COVID-19

The anti-epidemic supply chain plays an important role in the prevention and control of the COVID-19 pandemic. Prior research has focused on studying the facility location, inventory management, and route optimization of the supply chain by using certain parameters and models. Nevertheless, uncertainty, as a vital influence factor, greatly affects the supply chain. As such, the uncertainty that comes with technological innovation has a heightened influence on the supply chain. Few studies have explicitly investigated the influence of technological innovation on the anti-epidemic supply chain under the COVID-19 pandemic. Hence, the current research aims to investigate the influences of the uncertainty caused by technological innovation on the supply chain from demand and supply, shortage penalty, and budget. This paper presents a three-level model of the anti-epidemic supply chain under technological innovation and employs an interval data robust optimization to tackle the uncertainties of the model. The findings are obtained as follows. Firstly, the shortage penalty will increase the costs of the objective function but effectively improve demand satisfaction. Secondly, if the shortage penalty is sufficiently large, the minimum demand satisfaction rate can ensure a fair distribution of materials among the affected areas. Thirdly, technological innovation can reduce costs. The technological innovation related to the transportation costs of the anti-epidemic material distribution center has a greater influence on the optimal value. Meanwhile, the technological innovation related to the transportation costs of the supplier has the least influence. Fourthly, both supply and demand uncertainty can influence costs, but demand uncertainty has a greater influence. Fifthly, the multi-scenario budgeting approach can decrease the calculation complexity. These findings provide theoretical support for anti-epidemic dispatchers to adjust the conservativeness of uncertain parameters under the influence of technological innovation.

Adapting supply chain operations in anticipation of and during the COVID-19 pandemic

This article investigates the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and their proactive mediation by adaptive operational decisions in different network design structures in anticipation of and during the pandemic. In generalized terms, we contribute to the understanding of the effect of preparedness and recovery decisions in a pandemic setting on supply chain operations and performance. In particular, we examine the impact of inventory pre-positioning in anticipation of a pandemic and the adaptation of production-ordering policy during the pandemic. Our model combines three levels, which is not often seen jointly in operations management literature, i.e., pandemic dynamics, supply chain design, and operational production-inventory control policies. The analysis is performed for both two- and three-stage supply chains and different scenarios for pandemic dynamics (i.e., uncontrolled propagation or controlled dispersal with lockdowns). Our findings suggest that two-stage supply chains exhibit a higher vulnerability in disruption cases. However, they are exposed to a lower system inertia and show positive effects at the recovery stage. Supply chain adaptation ahead of a pandemic is more advantageous than during the pandemic when specific operational recovery policies are deployed. We show that it is instructive to avoid simultaneous changes in structural network design and operational policies since that can destabilize the production-inventory system and result in higher product shortages.

Learnings from COVID-19 for managing humanitarian supply chains: systematic literature review and future research directions

The COVID-19 pandemic has been experienced as the most significant global disaster after the Spanish flue in 1918. Millions of people lost their life due to a lack of preparedness and ineffective strategies for managing humanitarian supply chains (HSC). Based on the learnings from this pandemic outbreak, different strategies for managing the effective HSC have been explored in the present context of pandemics through a systematic literature review. The findings highlight some of the major challenges faced during the COVID-19 pandemic, such as lack of planning and preparedness, extended shortages of essential lifesaving items, inadequate lab capacity, lack of transparency and visibility, inefficient distribution network, high response time, dependencies on single sourcing for the medical equipment and medicines, lack of the right information on time, and lack of awareness about the protocol for the treatment of the viral disease. Some of the significant learnings observed from this analysis are the use of multiple sourcing of essential items, joint procurement, improving collaboration among all stakeholders, applications of IoT and blockchain technologies for improving tracking and traceability of essential commodities, application of data analytics tools for accurate prediction of next possible COVID wave/disruptions and optimization of distribution network. Limited studies are focused on finding solutions to these problems in managing HSC. Therefore, as a future scope, researchers could find solutions to optimizing the distribution network in context to pandemics, improving tracing and tracking of items during sudden demand, improving trust and collaborations among different agencies involved in HSC.

Blackout and supply chains: Cross-structural ripple effect, performance, resilience and viability impact analysis

Increased electricity consumption along with the transformations of the energy systems and interruptions in energy supply can lead to a blackout, i.e., the total loss of power in an area (or a set of areas) of a longer duration. This disruption can be fatal for production, logistics, and retail operations. Depending on the scope of the affected areas and the blackout duration, supply chains (SC) can be impacted to different extent. In this study, we perform a simulation analysis using anyLogistix digital SC twin to identify potential impacts of blackouts on SCs for scenarios of different severity. Distinctively, we triangulate the design and evaluation of experiments with consideration of SC performance, resilience, and viability. The results allow for some generalizations. First, we conceptualize blackout as a special case of SC risks which is distinctively characterized by a simultaneous shutdown of several SC processes, disruption propagations (i.e., the ripple effect), and a danger of viability losses for entire ecosystems. Second, we demonstrate how simulation-based methodology can be used to examine and predict the impacts of blackouts, mitigation and recovery strategies. The major observation from the simulation experiments is that the dynamics of the power loss propagation across different regions, the blackout duration, simultaneous unavailability of supply and logistics along with the unpredictable customer behavior might become major factors that determine the blackout impact and influence selection of an appropriate recovery strategy. The outcomes of this research can be used by decision-makers to predict the operative and long-term impacts of blackouts on the SCs and viability and develop mitigation and recovery strategies. The paper is concluded by summarizing the most important insights and outlining future research agenda toward SC viability, reconfigurable SC, multi-structural SC dynamics, intertwined supply networks, and cross-structural ripple effects.

COVID19 epidemic outbreak: operating rooms scheduling, specialty teams timetabling and emergency patients' assignment using the robust optimization approach

The health care system is characterized by limited resources, including the physical facilities as well as skilled human resources. Due to the extensive fixed cost of medical facilities and the high specialization required by the medical staff, the problem of resource scarcity in a health care supply chain is much more acute than in other industries. In the pandemic of the Coronavirus, where medical services are the most important services in communities, and protective and preventive guidelines impose new restrictions on the system, the issue of resource allocation will be more complicated and significantly affect the efficiency of health care systems. In this paper, the problem of activating the operating rooms in hospitals, assigning active operating rooms to the COVID-19 and non-COVID-19 patients, assigning specialty teams to the operating rooms and assigning the elective and emergency patients to the specialty teams, and scheduling their operations is studied by considering the new constraints of protective and preventive guidelines of the Coronavirus. To address these issues, a mixed-integer mathematical programming model is proposed. Moreover, to consider the uncertainty in the surgery duration of elective and emergency patients, the stochastic robust optimization approach is utilized. The proposed model is applied for the planning of operating rooms in the cardiovascular department of a hospital in Iran, and the results highlight the role of proper management in supplying sufficient medical resources effectively to respond to patients and scheduled surgical team to overcome the pressure on hospital resources and medical staff results from pandemic conditions.

Analysis of the COVID-19 pandemic’s impacts on manufacturing: a systematic literature review and future research agenda

The COVID-19 pandemic has affected manufacturing companies and necessitated adaptations of firms’ operations. Despite the increasing interest in this subject, a scarcity of systematic analysis can be observed. The present study systematically reviews the existing research on the COVID-19 pandemic concerning the manufacturing industry. This paper aims to highlight the main impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on the manufacturing sector from the operations management perspective, the practical adaptation actions, and future research opportunities. Open research questions and directions for further investigation are articulated and triangulated across organisational, process and technology perspectives.

Investigating the role of stakeholder engagement for more resilient vaccine supply chains during COVID-19

The complexity of the supply chains and the uncertainties in the processes cause business to become more vulnerable in the face of disruptions. Pandemic situations such as COVID-19 cause sudden disruptions in supply chains, causing processes to be disrupted. Especially in multi-stakeholder supply chains, the importance of stakeholder communication, motivation, and regulations i.e. comes to the forefront in order to ensure the resilience of supply chains. As learned with the COVID-19 pandemic, vaccine supply chains are also one of the multi-stakeholder supply chains and are extremely vulnerable to disruptions. In COVID-19 times, the importance of vaccine supply chain management and the resilience in vaccine supply chains increased. To have more resilient vaccine supply chains, stakeholder engagement is an essential issue. Therefore, the Graph Theory Matrix Approach has been used to determine factors of stakeholder engagement in multi-stakeholder vaccine supply chains and to specify the relationships between the factors of project and stakeholder engagement in vaccine supply chains to increase resilience in disruption times. The aim of the study is to identify the factors of project and stakeholder engagement that are necessary to ensure the resilience of multi-stakeholder vaccine supply chains and not be affected by disruptions such as COVID-19 as it is today. As a result of the study, innovativeness of stakeholders is the most important factor of stakeholder engagement in vaccine supply chains.

Mapping research on healthcare operations and supply chain management: a topic modelling-based literature review

The literature on healthcare operations and supply chain management has seen unprecedented growth over the past two decades. This paper seeks to advance the body of knowledge on this topic by utilising a topic modelling-based literature review to identify the core topics, examine their dynamic changes, and identify opportunities for further research in the area. Based on an analysis of 571 articles published until 25 January 2022, we identify numerous popular topics of research in the area, including patient waiting time, COVID-19 pandemic, Industry 4.0 technologies, sustainability, risk and resilience, climate change, circular economy, humanitarian logistics, behavioural operations, service-ecosystem, and knowledge management. We reviewed current literature around each topic and offered insights into what aspects of each topic have been studied and what are the recent developments and opportunities for more impactful future research. Doing so, this review help advance the contemporary scholarship on healthcare operations and supply chain management and offers resonant insights for researchers, research students, journal editors, and policymakers in the field.

Estimating CO2 emissions from emergency-supply transport: The case of COVID-19 vaccine global air transport

The environmental cost of disaster-related emergency supplies is significant. However, little research has been conducted on the estimation of emergency-supply transportation-related carbon emissions. This study created an "emergency supply emission estimation methodology" (ESEEM). The CO2 emissions from the global air dispatch of COVID-19 vaccines were estimated using two hypothetical scenarios of one dose per capita and additional doses secured. The robustness of the model was tested with the Monte Carlo Simulation method (MCM) based one-sample t-test. The model was validated using the "Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement (GUM)" and GUM's MCM approaches. The results showed that to dispatch at least one dose of the COVID-19 vaccine to 7.8 billion people, nearly 8000 Boeing 747 flights will be needed, releasing approximately 8.1 ± 0.30 metric kilotons (kt) of CO2. As countries secure additional doses, these figures will increase to 14,912 flights and about 15 ± 0.48 kt of CO2. According to the variance-based sensitivity analysis, the total number of doses (population), technology, and wealth play a significant role in determining CO2 emissions across nations. Thus, wealthy nations' long-term population reduction efforts, technological advancements, and mitigation efforts can benefit the environment as a whole and the CO2 burdens associated with current COVID-19 and any future disasters' emergency-supply transportation.

Supply chain resilience in the UK during the coronavirus pandemic: A resource orchestration perspective

The COVID-19 pandemic caused significant disruptions to global operations and supply chains. While the huge impact of the pandemic has nurtured important literature over the last couple of years, little is being said about the role of resource orchestration in supporting resilience in highly disruptive contexts. Thus, this study aims to this knowledge gap by proposing an original model to explore supply chain resilience (SCRE) antecedents, considering supply chain alertness (SCAL) as a central point to support resilience. This study focuses on the resource orchestration theory (ROT) to design a conceptual model. The partial least squares structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM) served to validate the model, exploring data from the UK supply chain decision-makers. The study reveals a number of both expected and unexpected findings. These include the evidence that supply chain disruption orientation (SCDO) has a strong positive effect on the SCAL. In addition, SCAL plays a strong positive effect in resource reconfiguration (RREC), supply chain efficiency (SCEF) and SCRE. We further identified a partial mediation effect of RREC on the relationship between SCAL and SCRE. Surprisingly, it appeared that SCAL strongly influences SCEF, while SCEF itself does not create any significant effect on SCRE. For managers and practitioners, the importance of resource orchestration as a decisive approach to adequately respond to huge disruptions is clearly highlighted by our results. Finally, this paper helps to grasp better how important resource orchestration in operations and supply chains remains for appropriate responses to high disruptions such as the COVID-19 impacts.

Digital supply chain management in the COVID-19 crisis: An asset orchestration perspective

Although many firms are actively deploying various digital technology (DT) assets across their supply chains to mitigate the negative impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on operations, whether these DT assets are truly helpful remains unclear. To disentangle this puzzle, we investigate whether firms that have higher levels of DT asset deployment achieve better supply chain performance in the COVID-19 crisis than firms with lower levels. From an asset orchestration perspective, we focus on two dimensions of DT asset deployment: breadth and depth, which reflect the scope and scale of DT assets, respectively. The empirical results from 175 Chinese firms that have deployed DT assets to varying degrees reveal that both the breadth and the depth of DT asset deployment show positive relationships with supply chain visibility. In contrast, the depth but not the breadth of DT asset deployment poses a positive relationship with supply chain agility. Most importantly, high levels of supply chain visibility and supply chain agility were prerequisites for excellent supply chain performance in the COVID-19 crisis. We contribute to the digital supply chain management literature by uncovering the mechanism through which DT asset deployment generates impacts on supply chain performance from an asset orchestration perspective. Our study also assists firms in improving their digital transformation strategies to combat the COVID-19 pandemic.

Supply chain risk management in the COVID-19 pandemic: strategies and empirical lessons for improving global logistics service providers’ performance

Purpose

The enormous impact of the COVID-19 pandemic showcases the key role of supply chain risk management (SCRM) in achieving and maintaining business performance, competitiveness and survival in the “new normal”. The purpose of this paper is to explore what impact the COVID-19 pandemic has had and may yet have on supply chains (SCs), which SCRM approaches have proved successful and how logistics service providers (LSPs) have applied the knowledge they have gained to improve their SCRM practices and resilience so as to prepare better for the next major disruption.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper combines an extensive literature review with a multiple-case study of 10 internationally operating LSPs and how they have handled the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic so far. To bridge the research-practice gap, this study draws on the dynamic-capabilities view and provide insights that are valuable to both academia and practice.

Findings

This study provides empirical evidence on the severe impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on SCs, which has posed several challenges to LSPs. The study identifies eight factors that are critical to the adaptive capabilities of LSPs and, therefore, to their resilience in extreme conditions. The findings of this study show that these factors determine whether an SCRM system is robust and agile enough to allow an LSP to anticipate potential disruption and to respond fast enough when disruption occurs. Specifically, this study finds that robustness and agility demonstrably strengthen business performance, while learning from experience proves key to reconfiguring an SCRM design in response to acute disruption.

Originality/value

This paper is among the first to provide rich, empirical and practically applicable insights into the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on business in relation to SCRM. These novel insights offer inspiring opportunities for further research.

An extended robust mathematical model to project the course of COVID-19 epidemic in Iran

This research develops a regression-based Robust Optimization (RO) approach to efficiently predict the number of patients with confirmed infection caused by the recent Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19). The main idea is to study the dynamics of the COVID-19 outbreak at the first stage and then provide efficient insights to estimate the necessary resources accordingly. The convex RO with Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) objective function is utilized to project the course of COVID-19 epidemic in Iran. To validate the performance of the suggested model, a real-case study is investigated and compared to several well-known forecasting models including Simple Moving Average, Exponential Moving Average, Weighted Moving Average and Exponential Smoothing with Trend Adjustment models. Furthermore, the effect of parameter uncertainties is examined using a set of sensitivity analyses. The results demonstrate that by increasing the degree (coefficient) of regression up to 8, MAD value decreases to 1378.12, and consequently, the corresponding equation becomes more accurate. On the other hand, from the 8th degree onwards, MAD value follows an upward trend. Furthermore, by increasing the level of regression uncertainty, MAD value follows a downward trend to reach 1309.28 and the estimation accuracy of the model increases accordingly. Finally, our proposed model achieves the least MAD and the greatest correlation coefficient against the other models.

Data-Driven Analytics Leveraging Artificial Intelligence in the Era of COVID-19: An Insightful Review of Recent Developments

This paper presents the role of artificial intelligence (AI) and other latest technologies that were employed to fight the recent pandemic (i.e., novel coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19)). These technologies assisted the early detection/diagnosis, trends analysis, intervention planning, healthcare burden forecasting, comorbidity analysis, and mitigation and control, to name a few. The key-enablers of these technologies was data that was obtained from heterogeneous sources (i.e., social networks (SN), internet of (medical) things (IoT/IoMT), cellular networks, transport usage, epidemiological investigations, and other digital/sensing platforms). To this end, we provide an insightful overview of the role of data-driven analytics leveraging AI in the era of COVID-19. Specifically, we discuss major services that AI can provide in the context of COVID-19 pandemic based on six grounds, (i) AI role in seven different epidemic containment strategies (a.k.a non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs)), (ii) AI role in data life cycle phases employed to control pandemic via digital solutions, (iii) AI role in performing analytics on heterogeneous types of data stemming from the COVID-19 pandemic, (iv) AI role in the healthcare sector in the context of COVID-19 pandemic, (v) general-purpose applications of AI in COVID-19 era, and (vi) AI role in drug design and repurposing (e.g., iteratively aligning protein spikes and applying three/four-fold symmetry to yield a low-resolution candidate template) against COVID-19. Further, we discuss the challenges involved in applying AI to the available data and privacy issues that can arise from personal data transitioning into cyberspace. We also provide a concise overview of other latest technologies that were increasingly applied to limit the spread of the ongoing pandemic. Finally, we discuss the avenues of future research in the respective area. This insightful review aims to highlight existing AI-based technological developments and future research dynamics in this area.

Unifying Efforts to Rebound Operational Excellence and Export Competitiveness

COVID-19 pandemic have provided us an opportunity to retrospect, our traditional practices, operations, supply chain functions and their linkages with firm competitiveness. The recovery to the new normal of operational excellence is the challenging task ahead. The critical a question in post-pandemic recovery can be—How can the firms rebound to operational excellence and achieve the benchmarks of international competitiveness with the current uncertainties in both demand and supply sides? Trigger the thinking on the challenging issue, we had invited the scholarly articles, empirical studies, reviews and perspective papers based on the theme “Rebound to Higher Levels of Operational Excellence and Export competitiveness”. This work presents the editorial summary of the special issue and suggest pathways and possible research and managerial, policy level directives towards the Operational Excellence and Export competitiveness. The study utilizes three specific inputs- (a) Academic resources, (b) Industrial Discourse and (c) International trade and Government initiatives to present the directives for further research interventions. While, this multi-perspective consideration does not represent the comprehensive systematic literature review or the empirical research, but it enables us to explore the challenges, enablers and decision-making approaches for rebounding operational excellence towards export competitiveness.

Seeking survivals under COVID-19: The WhatsApp platform's shopping service operations

Under COVID-19 outbreak, retail operations are seriously threatened. There are lots of cases in which physical stores basically have to stop operating. This creates problems to the firm, its employees, and consumers. Recently, Timberland in Hong Kong and various other brands such as Joyce Boutiques and The North Face have established the "WhatsApp Shopping Service Operation" (WSO) in which consumers can shop by using the well-established communication tool "WhatsApp." Salespeople in stores provide services via WhatsApp to assist the consumers without them having to visit the stores. We collect primary data from real-world cases and theoretically explore WSO. We build a standard consumer utility based model to derive the firm's optimal pricing and employment decisions under different cases. We evaluate the impacts of COVID-19 and values of WSO implementation from the "Worker-Consumer-Company" (WCC) welfare perspective. Our results interestingly imply that WSO is superior to the traditional online channel in terms of keeping business under the pandemic; meanwhile, implementing WSO can help stimulate demand in the physical store under COVID-19. However, whether WSO is effective to help increase the firm's profit and WCC welfare depends on both consumer type' distribution and consumers' fear of infection. When consumers' fear of infection is very polarized (i.e., extremely low or high), WSO is not recommended. We further propose that the government's subsidy for WSO implementation could be an effective way to help the firm improve its profit and WCC welfare. We also check the robustness of our study by extending the model to consider endogenous consumer type, endogenous service level, and WCC-welfare-oriented firm.

How is COVID-19 altering the manufacturing landscape? A literature review of imminent challenges and management interventions

Disruption from the COVID-19 pandemic has caused major upheavals for manufacturing, and has severe implications for production networks, and the demand and supply chains underpinning manufacturing operations. This paper is the first of its kind to pull together research on both-the pandemic-related challenges and the management interventions in a manufacturing context. This systematic literature review reveals the frailty of supply chains and production networks in withstanding the pressures of lockdowns and other safety protocols, including product and workforce shortages. These, altogether, have led to closed facilities, reduced capacities, increased costs, and severe economic uncertainty for manufacturing businesses. In managing these challenges and stabilising their operations, manufacturers are urgently intervening by-investing in digital technologies, undertaking resource redistribution and repurposing, regionalizing and localizing, servitizing, and targeting policies that can help them survive in this altered economy. Based on holistic analysis of these challenges and interventions, this review proposes an extensive research agenda for future studies to pursue.

Theorising the Microfoundations of analytics empowerment capability for humanitarian service systems

The world is facing an unprecedented humanitarian crisis due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Humanitarian service systems are being empowered to tackle this crisis through the use of vast amounts of structured and unstructured data to protect vulnerable individuals and communities. Analytics has emerged as a powerful platform to visualise, predict, and prescribe solutions to humanitarian crises, such as disease containment, healthcare capacity, and emergency food supply. However, there is a paucity of research on the microfoundations of the humanitarian analytics empowerment capability. As such, drawing on dynamic capability theory and by means of a systematic literature review and thematic analysis, this study proposes an analytics empowerment capability framework for humanitarian service systems. The findings show that analytics culture, technological sophistication, data-driven insights, decision making autonomy, knowledge and skills, and training and development are crucial components of the analytics empowerment's capability to sense, seize, and remedy crisis situations. The paper discusses both theoretical and practical research implications.

Supply chain resilience during the COVID-19: empirical evidence from an emerging economy

Purpose

Although the advances in the supply chain resilience (SCR) literature, there is a critical gap concerning this understanding in a high disruption context, such as in the case of the COVID-19. This paper aims to investigate some dimensions (agility, robustness, disruption orientation and resource reconfiguration) of the SCR during this unprecedented disruption in the Brazilian supply chain context.

Design/methodology/approach

Supported by the resource-based view, dynamic capabilities and the SCR literature, we developed a model, which in turn was analyzed and validated by partial least squares structural equation modelling.

Findings

The results revealed that while resource reconfiguration and supply chain disruption orientation positively affect SCR, we found a non-significant effect of supply chain robustness and agility.

Practical implications

The findings suggest that in a considerable disruption scenario, managers with their supply chain operations in emerging economies should prioritize the development of resources to support the disruption orientation and manage the scarce resources adequately by reconfiguring them.

Originality/value

Our study is one of the first that reported the dynamics of the SCR dimensions in an emerging economy during the COVID-19.

On Deploying Blockchain Technologies in Supply Chain Strategies and the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Systematic Literature Review and Research Outlook

The emergence of a new pandemic, known as COVID-19, has touched various sections of the supply chain (SC). Since then, numerous studies have been conducted on the issue, but the need for a holistic review study that highlights the gaps and limits of previous research, as well as opportunities and agendas for future studies, is palpable. Through a systematic literature review on blockchain technology (BCT) deployment in supply-chain management (SCM) concerning the COVID-19 pandemic, this research seeks to add to the content of previous studies and to enlighten the path for future studies. Relevant papers were found using a variety of resources (Scopus, Google Scholar, Web of Science, and ProQuest). Seventy-two articles were systematically selected, considering the PRISMA procedure, and were thoroughly analyzed based on BCT, methodologies, industrial sectors, geographical, and sustainability context. According to our findings, there is a significant lack of empirical and quantitative methodologies in the literature. The majority of studies did not take specific industries into account. Furthermore, the articles focusing on the sustainability context are few, particularly regarding social and environmental issues. In addition, most of the reviewed papers did not consider the geographical context. The results indicate that the deployment of BCT in several sectors is not uniform, and this utilization is reliant on their services during the COVID-19 pandemic. Furthermore, the concentration of research on the impacts of the BCT on SCM differs according to the conditions of various countries in terms of the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic. The findings also show that there is a direct relationship between the deployment of BCT and sustainability factors, such as economic and waste issues, under the circumstances surrounding COVID-19. Finally, this study offers research opportunities and agendas to help academics and other stakeholders to gain a better knowledge of the present literature, recognize aspects that necessitate more exploration, and drive prospective studies.

Can blockchain help food supply chains with platform operations during the COVID-19 outbreak?

Food selling platforms are facing both challenges and opportunities during the COVID-19 outbreak as the enforcement of social distancing protocols has pushed consumers with serious health and safety concerns to shop online. Observing that platforms and their suppliers have adopted blockchain technologies and linked selected information nodes separately to foster consumers' trust, we establish a game-theoretic model to study the operations decisions and blockchain adoption strategies for a food supply chain consisting of one platform and one supplier. We explore the values and impacts of blockchain on the retailing platform, supplier, and consumers, respectively. An all-win situation is achieved when both members of the supply chain adopt blockchain. We further propose that not all prevalent supply chain contracts can achieve supply chain coordination in the presence of blockchain. In extended studies, we examine the incentives of the supply chain members' blockchain implementation with consideration of the fixed cost of such adoption, product infection, and tampered information.

A Multiclass, Multiproduct Covid-19 Convalescent Plasma Donor Equilibrium Model

In this paper, we develop a multiclass, multiproduct equilibrium model for convalescent plasma donations in the Covid-19 pandemic. The potential donors are situated at different locations and the donor population at each location can be separated into different classes based on their motivation and the product for which they provide donations at a collection site. The model captures the competition between nonprofit and for-profit organizations seeking convalescent plasma donations, which is a characteristic of this new market. A variational inequality formulation of the equilibrium conditions and qualitative properties of the model are provided. We also present a capacitated version of the model. Numerical examples of increasing complexity are presented and solved using the modified projection method. The results reveal multiclass, multiproduct donor behavior under different scenarios which can inform policy makers during this pandemic and beyond.

Food retail supply chain resilience and the COVID-19 pandemic: A digital twin-based impact analysis and improvement directions

In this study, we examine the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on food retail supply chains (SCs) and their resilience. Based on real-life pandemic scenarios encountered in Germany, we develop and use a discrete-event simulation model to examine SC operations and performance dynamics with the help of anyLogistix digital SC twin. The computational results show that food retail SC resilience at the upheaval times is triangulated by the pandemic intensity and associated lockdown/shutdown governmental measures, inventory-ordering dynamics in the SC, and customer behaviours. We observe that surges in demand and supplier shutdowns have had the highest impact on SC operations and performance, whereas the impact of transportation disruptions was rather low. Transportation costs have spiked because of chaotic inventory-ordering dynamics leading to more frequent and irregular shipments. On bright side, we observe the demand growth and utilization of online sales channels yielding higher revenues. We propose several directions and practical implementation guidelines to improve the food retail SC resilience. We stress the importance of SC digital twins and end-to-end visibility along with resilient demand, inventory, and capacity management. The outcomes of our study can be instructive for enhancing the resilience of food retail SCs in preparation for future pandemics and pandemic-like crises.

A structured literature review on the interplay between emerging technologies and COVID-19 - insights and directions to operations fields

In recent years, emerging technologies have gained popularity and being implemented in different fields. Thus, critical leading-edge technologies such as artificial intelligence and other related technologies (blockchain, simulation, 3d printing, etc.) are transforming the operations and other traditional fields and proving their value in fighting against unprecedented COVID-19 pandemic outbreaks. However, due to this relation's novelty, little is known about the interplay between emerging technologies and COVID-19 and its implications to operations-related fields. In this vein, we mapped the extant literature on this integration by a structured literature review approach and found essential outcomes. In addition to the literature mapping, this paper's main contributions were identifying literature scarcity on this hot topic by operations-related fields; consequently, our paper emphasizes an urgent call to action. Also, we present a novel framework considering the primary emerging technologies and the operations processes concerning this pandemic outbreak. Also, we provided an exciting research agenda and four propositions derived from the framework, which are collated to operations processes angle. Thus, scholars and practitioners have the opportunity to adapt and advance the framework and empirically investigate and validate the propositions for this and other highly disruptive crisis.

Stress testing supply chains and creating viable ecosystems

Businesses and governments are becoming increasingly concerned about the resilience of supply chains and calling for their review and stress testing. In this conceptual essay, we theorize a human-centred ecosystem viability perspective that spans the dimensions of resilience and sustainability and can be used as guidance for the conceptualization of supply chain resilience analysis in the presence of long-term crises. Subsequently, we turn to the technological level and present the digital supply chain twin as a contemporary instrument for stress testing supply chain resilience. We provide some implementation guidelines and emphasize that although resilience assessment of individual supply chains is important and critical for firms, viability analysis of intertwined supply networks and ecosystems represents a novel and impactful research perspective. One of the major outcomes of this essay is the conceptualization of a human-centred ecosystem viability perspective on supply chain resilience.

Exiting the COVID-19 pandemic: after-shock risks and avoidance of disruption tails in supply chains

Entering the COVID-19 pandemic wreaked havoc on supply chains. Reacting to the pandemic and adaptation in the "new normal" have been challenging tasks. Exiting the pandemic can lead to some after-shock effects such as "disruption tails." While the research community has undertaken considerable efforts to predict the pandemic's impacts and examine supply chain adaptive behaviors during the pandemic, little is known about supply chain management in the course of pandemic elimination and post-disruption recovery. If capacity and inventory management are unaware of the after-shock risks, this can result in highly destabilized production-inventory dynamics and decreased performance in the post-disruption period causing product deficits in the markets and high inventory costs in the supply chains. In this paper, we use a discrete-event simulation model to investigate some exit strategies for a supply chain in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. Our model can inform managers about the existence and risk of disruption tails in their supply chains and guide the selection of post-pandemic recovery strategies. Our results show that supply chains with postponed demand and shutdown capacity during the COVID-19 pandemic are particularly prone to disruption tails. We then developed and examined two strategies to avoid these disruption tails. First, we observed a conjunction of recovery and supply chain coordination which mitigates the impact of disruption tails by demand smoothing over time in the post-disruption period. Second, we found a gradual capacity ramp-up prior to expected peaks of postponed demand to be an effective strategy for disruption tail control.