Calibration and validation of toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic models for three neonicotinoids and some aquatic macroinvertebrates

Reproductive toxicity in birds predicted by physiologically-based kinetics and bioenergetics modelling

Effects on the growth and reproduction of birds are important endpoints in the environmental risk assessment (ERA) of pesticides. Toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic models based on dynamic energy budget theory (DEB) are promising tools to predict these effects mechanistically and make extrapolations relevant to ERA. However, before DEB-TKTD models are accepted as part of ERA for birds, ecotoxicological case studies are required so that stakeholders can assess their capabilities. We present such a case-study, modelling the effects of the fluopyram metabolite benzamide on the northern bobwhite quail (Colinus virginianus). We parametrised a DEB-TKTD model for the embryo stage on the basis of an egg injection study, designed to provide data for model development. We found that information on various endpoints, such as survival, growth, and yolk utilisation were needed to clearly distinguish between the performance of model variants with different TKTD assumptions. The calibration data were best explained when it was assumed that chemical uptake occurs via the yolk and that benzamide places stress on energy assimilation and mobilisation. To be able to bridge from the in vitro tests to real-life exposure, we developed a physiologically-based toxicokinetic (PBK) model for the quail and used it to predict benzamide exposure inside the eggs based on dietary exposure in a standard reproductive toxicity study. We then combined the standard DEB model with the TKTD module calibrated to the egg injection studies and used it to predict effects on hatchling and 14-day chick weight based on the exposure predicted by the PBK model. Observed weight reductions, relative to controls, were accurately predicted. Thus, we demonstrate that DEB-TKTD models, in combination with suitable experimental data and, if necessary, with an exposure model, can be used in bird ERA to predict chemical effects on reproduction.

Mortality Pattern of Poecilus cupreus Beetles after Repeated Topical Exposure to Insecticide─Stochastic Death or Individual Tolerance?

The mortality of organisms exposed to toxicants has been attributed to either stochastic processes or individual tolerance (IT), leading to the stochastic death (SD) and IT models. While the IT model follows the principles of natural selection, the relevance of the SD model has been debated. To clarify why the idea of stochastic mortality has found its way into ecotoxicology, we investigated the mortality of Poecilus cupreus (Linnaeus, 1758) beetles from pesticide-treated oilseed rape (OSR) fields and unsprayed meadows, subjected to repeated insecticide treatments. We analyzed the mortality with the Kaplan-Meier estimator and general unified threshold model for survival (GUTS), which integrates SD and IT assumptions. The beetles were exposed three times, ca. monthly, to the same dose of Proteus 110 OD insecticide containing thiacloprid and deltamethrin, commonly used in the OSR fields. Kaplan-Meier analysis showed that the mortality of beetles from meadows was much higher after the first treatment than after the next two, indicating the IT model. Beetles from the OSR displayed approximately constant mortality after the first and second treatments, consistent with the SD model. GUTS analysis did not conclusively identify the better model, with the IT being marginally better for beetles from meadows and the SD better for beetles from OSR fields.

A Toxicokinetic-Toxicodynamic Modeling Workflow Assessing the Quality of Input Mortality Data

Toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic (TKTD) models simulate organismal uptake and elimination of a substance (TK) and its effects on the organism (TD). The Reduced General Unified Threshold model of Survival (GUTS-RED) is a TKTD modeling framework that is well established for aquatic risk assessment to simulate effects on survival. The TKTD models are applied in three steps: parameterization based on experimental data (calibration), comparing predictions with independent data (validation), and prediction of endpoints under environmental scenarios. Despite a clear understanding of the sensitivity of GUTS-RED predictions to the model parameters, the influence of the input data on the quality of GUTS-RED calibration and validation has not been systematically explored. We analyzed the performance of GUTS-RED calibration and validation based on a unique, comprehensive data set, covering different types of substances, exposure patterns, and aquatic animal species taxa that are regularly used for risk assessment of plant protection products. We developed a software code to automatically calibrate and validate GUTS-RED against survival measurements from 59 toxicity tests and to calculate selected model evaluation metrics. To assess whether specific survival data sets were better suited for calibration or validation, we applied a design in which all possible combinations of studies for the same species-substance combination are used for calibration and validation. We found that uncertainty of calibrated parameters was lower when the full range of effects (i.e., from high survival to high mortality) was covered by input data. Increasing the number of toxicity studies used for calibration further decreased parameter uncertainty. Including data from both acute and chronic studies as well as studies under pulsed and constant exposure in model calibrations improved model predictions on different types of validation data. Using our results, we derived a workflow, including recommendations for the sequence of modeling steps from the selection of input data to a final judgment on the suitability of GUTS-RED for the data set. Environ Toxicol Chem 2024;43:197-210. © 2023 Bayer AG and The Authors. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of SETAC.

Joint survival modelling for multiple species exposed to toxicants

In environmental risk assessment (ERA), the multitude of compounds and taxa demands cross-species extrapolation to cover the variability in sensitivity to toxicants. However, only the impact of a single compound to a single species is addressed by the general unified threshold model of survival (GUTS). The reduced GUTS is the recommended model to analyse lethal toxic effects in regulatory aquatic ERA. GUTS considers toxicokinetics and toxicodynamics. Two toxicodynamic approaches are considered: Stochastic death (SD) assumes that survival decreases with an increasing internalized amount of the toxicant. Individual tolerance (IT) assumes that individuals vary in their tolerance to toxic exposure. Existing theory suggests that the product of the threshold z_w and killing rate b_w (both SD toxicodynamic parameters) are constant across species or compounds if receptors and target sites are shared. We extend that theory and show that the shape parameter β of the loglogistic threshold distribution in IT is also constant. To verify the predicted relationships, we conducted three tests using toxicity studies for eight arthropods exposed to the insecticide flupyradifurone. We confirmed previous verifications of the relation- between SD parameters, and the newly established relation for the IT parameter β. We enhanced GUTS to jointly model survival for multiple species with shared receptors and pathways by incorporating the relations among toxicodynamic parameters described above. The joint GUTS exploits the shared parameter relations and therefore constrains parameter uncertainty for each of the separate species. Particularly for IT, the joint GUTS more precisely predicted risk to the separate species than the standard single species GUTS under environmentally realistic exposure. We suggest that joint GUTS modelling can improve cross-species extrapolation in regulatory ERA by increasing the reliability of risk estimates and reducing animal testing. Furthermore, the shared toxicodynamic response provides potential to reduce complexity of ecosystem models.

Behavioral and physiological toxicity thresholds of a freshwater vertebrate (Heteropneustes fossilis) and invertebrate (Branchiura sowerbyi), exposed to zinc oxide nanoparticles (nZnO): A General Unified Threshold model of Survival (GUTS)

The toxic effects of Zinc oxide nanoparticles (nZnO) on Branchiura sowerbyi and Heteropneustes fossilis, was assessed in a 96-hour acute exposure regime using behavioral (including loss-of balance and clumping tendencies) and physiological (mucus secretion and oxygen consumption) endpoints. While the relationship between behavioral, physiological biomarkers, and exposure concentrations was assessed using correlation analysis, nZnO toxicity was further predicted using the General Unified Threshold model for Survival (GUTS). The time-dependent lethal limits for acute nZnO toxicity (LC₅₀) on B. sowerbyi were estimated to be 0.668, 0.588, 0.448, and 0.400 mg/l, respectively, at 24, 48, 72, and 96 h whereas for H. fossilis the LC50 values are 0.954, 0.905, 0.874 and 0.838 mg/l. Threshold effect values i.e., LOEC (Lowest Observed Effect Concentration), NOEC (No Observed Effect Concentration), and MATC (Maximum Acceptable Toxicant Concentration) threshold effect values at 96 h were higher for fish compared to the oligochaete. For B. sowerbyi, the GUTS-SD (stochastic death) model is a better predictor of nanoparticle exposure effects compared to the GUTS-IT (individual tolerance) model, however in the case of H. fossilis, the reverse pattern was observed. Oxygen consumption rate was negatively correlated to mortality under acute exposure duration. The strong negative correlation between mortality and oxygen consumption strongly suggests a metabolic-toxicity pathway for nZnO exposure effects. The higher toxicity threshold values i.e., LOEC, NOEC, and MATC for fish compared to the oligochaete invertebrate indicates greater risks for invertebrates compared to vertebrates, with resultant implications for local habitat trophic relationships.

Deltamethrin-Induced Respiratory and Behavioral Effects and Adverse Outcome Pathways (AOP) in Short-Term Exposed Mozambique Tilapia, Oreochromis mossambicus

Disrupted behavior and respiratory distress effects of 96-h acute deltamethrin exposures in adult Mozambique tilapia, Oreochromis mossambicus, were investigated using behavioral indices and opercular movement, respectively. Deltamethrin concentrations were found to be associated with toxicological (lethal and sublethal) responses. At 24, 48, 72, and 96 h, the LC50 values and 95% confidence limits were 12.290 (11.174-14.411 µg/L), 12.671 (11.334-15.649 µg/L), 10.172 (9.310-11.193 µg/L), and 8.639 (7.860-9.417 µg/L), respectively. The GUTS-model analysis showed that GUTS-SD (stochastic death) with a narrow tolerance distribution in deltamethrin exposed O. mossambicus populations was more sensitive than the GUTS-IT (individual tolerance) model. Prior to death, exposed fish demonstrated concentration-dependent mortality and disturbed behavioral responses, including uncoordinated swim motions, increased mucus secretion, unbalanced and unpredictable swimming patterns, and inactivity. The altered behavioral patterns and increased opercular movement with increased deltamethrin levels and exposure time are strongly suggestive of neurotoxicity and respiratory distress, respectively. Adverse Outcome Pathways (AOPs), describing biological mechanisms and plausible pathways, highlighted oxidative stress and cholinergic effects as intermediate steps linked to respiratory distress and behavioral toxicity.

Comparing the acute and chronic toxicity of flupyradifurone and imidacloprid to non-target aquatic arthropod species

Flupyradifurone (FPF) is a new type of butenolide insecticide. It was launched on the market in 2015 and is considered an alternative to the widely used neonicotinoids, like imidacloprid (IMI), some of which are banned from outdoor use in the European Union. FPF is claimed to be safe for bees, but its safety for aquatic organisms is unknown. Its high water solubility, persistence in the environment, and potential large-scale use make it urgent to evaluate possible impacts on aquatic systems. The current study assessed the acute and chronic toxicity of FPF for aquatic arthropod species and compared these results with those of imidacloprid. Besides, toxicokinetics and toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic models were used to understand the mechanisms of the toxicity of FPF. The present study results showed that organisms take up FPF slower than IMI and eliminate it faster. In addition, the hazardous concentration 5th percentiles (HC₀₅) value of FPF derived from a species sensitivity distribution (SSD) based on acute toxicity was found to be 0.052 µmol/L (corresponding to 15 µg/L), which was 37 times higher than IMI (0.0014 µmol/L, corresponding to 0.36 µg/L). The chronic 28 days EC₁₀ of FPF for Cloeon dipterum and Gammarus pulex were 7.5 µg/L and 2.9 µg/L, respectively. For G. pulex, after 28 days of exposure, the no observed effect concentration (NOEC) of FPF for food consumption was 0.3 µg/L. A toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic (TKTD) model parameterised on the acute toxicity data well predicted the observed chronic effects of FPF on G. pulex, indicating that toxicity mechanisms of FPF did not change with prolonged exposure time, which is not the case for IMI.

Predicting Combined Effects of Chemical Stressors: Population-Level Effects of Organic Chemical Mixtures with a Dynamic Energy Budget Individual-Based Model

Most regulatory ecological risk-assessment frameworks largely disregard discrepancies between the laboratory, where effects of single substances are assessed on individual organisms, and the real environment, where organisms live together in populations and are often exposed to multiple simultaneously occurring substances. We assessed the capability of individual-based models (IBMs) with a foundation in the dynamic energy budget (DEB) theory to predict combined effects of chemical mixtures on populations when they are calibrated on toxicity data of single substances at the individual level only. We calibrated a DEB-IBM for Daphnia magna for four compounds (pyrene, dicofol, α-hexachlorocyclohexane, and endosulfan), covering different physiological modes of action. We then performed a 17-week population experiment with D. magna (designed using the DEB-IBM), in which we tested mixture combinations of these chemicals at relevant concentrations, in a constant exposure phase (7-week exposure and recovery), followed by a pulsed exposure phase (3-day pulse exposure and recovery). The DEB-IBM was validated by comparing blind predictions of mixture toxicity effects with the population data. The DEB-IBM accurately predicted mixture toxicity effects on population abundance in both phases when assuming independent action at the effect mechanism level. The population recovery after the constant exposure was well predicted, but recovery after the pulse was not. The latter could be related to insufficient consideration of stochasticity in experimental design, model implementation, or both. Importantly, the mechanistic DEB-IBM performed better than conventional statistical mixture assessment methods. We conclude that the DEB-IBM, calibrated using only single-substance individual-level toxicity data, produces accurate predictions of population-level mixture effects and can therefore provide meaningful contributions to ecological risk assessment of environmentally realistic mixture exposure scenarios. Environ Toxicol Chem 2022;41:2240-2258. © 2022 SETAC.

A critical review of effect modeling for ecological risk assessment of plant protection products

A wide diversity of plant protection products (PPP) is used for crop protection leading to the contamination of soil, water, and air, which can have ecotoxicological impacts on living organisms. It is inconceivable to study the effects of each compound on each species from each compartment, experimental studies being time consuming and cost prohibitive, and animal testing having to be avoided. Therefore, numerous models are developed to assess PPP ecotoxicological effects. Our objective was to provide an overview of the modeling approaches enabling the assessment of PPP effects (including biopesticides) on the biota. Six categories of models were inventoried: (Q)SAR, DR and TKTD, population, multi-species, landscape, and mixture models. They were developed for various species (terrestrial and aquatic vertebrates and invertebrates, primary producers, micro-organisms) belonging to diverse environmental compartments, to address different goals (e.g., species sensitivity or PPP bioaccumulation assessment, ecosystem services protection). Among them, mechanistic models are increasingly recognized by EFSA for PPP regulatory risk assessment but, to date, remain not considered in notified guidance documents. The strengths and limits of the reviewed models are discussed together with improvement avenues (multigenerational effects, multiple biotic and abiotic stressors). This review also underlines a lack of model testing by means of field data and of sensitivity and uncertainty analyses. Accurate and robust modeling of PPP effects and other stressors on living organisms, from their application in the field to their functional consequences on the ecosystems at different scales of time and space, would help going toward a more sustainable management of the environment. Graphical Abstract Combination of the keyword lists composing the first bibliographic query. Columns were joined together with the logical operator AND. All keyword lists are available in Supplementary Information at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5775038 (Larras et al. 2021).

In Silico Methods for Environmental Risk Assessment: Principles, Tiered Approaches, Applications, and Future Perspectives

This chapter aims to introduce the reader to the basic principles of environmental risk assessment of chemicals and highlights the usefulness of tiered approaches within weight of evidence approaches in relation to problem formulation i.e., data availability, time and resource availability. In silico models are then introduced and include quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) models, which support filling data gaps when no chemical property or ecotoxicological data are available. In addition, biologically-based models can be applied in more data rich situations and these include generic or species-specific models such as toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic models, dynamic energy budget models, physiologically based models, and models for ecosystem hazard assessment i.e. species sensitivity distributions and ultimately for landscape assessment i.e. landscape-based modeling approaches. Throughout this chapter, particular attention is given to provide practical examples supporting the application of such in silico models in real-world settings. Future perspectives are discussed to address environmental risk assessment in a more holistic manner particularly for relevant complex questions, such as the risk assessment of multiple stressors and the development of harmonized approaches to ultimately quantify the relative contribution and impact of single chemicals, multiple chemicals and multiple stressors on living organisms.

(Eco)toxicological tests for assessing impacts of chemical stress to aquatic ecosystems: Facts, challenges, and future

Monitoring of chemicals in the aquatic environment by chemical analysis alone cannot completely assess and predict the effects of chemicals on aquatic species and ecosystems. This is primarily because of the increasing number of (unknown) chemical stressors and mixture effects present in the environment. In addition, the ability of ecological indices to identify underlying stressors causing negative ecological effects is limited. Therefore, additional complementary methods are needed that can address the biological effects in a direct manner and provide a link to chemical exposure, i.e. (eco)toxicological tests. (Eco)toxicological tests are defined as test systems that expose biological components (cells, individuals, populations, communities) to (environmental mixtures of) chemicals to register biological effects. These tests measure responses at the sub-organismal (biomarkers and in vitro bioassays), whole-organismal, population, or community level. We performed a literature search to obtain a state-of-the-art overview of ecotoxicological tests available for assessing impacts of chemicals to aquatic biota and to reveal datagaps. In total, we included 509 biomarkers, 207 in vitro bioassays, 422 tests measuring biological effects at the whole-organismal level, and 78 tests at the population- community- and ecosystem-level. Tests at the whole-organismal level and biomarkers were most abundant for invertebrates and fish, whilst in vitro bioassays are mostly based on mammalian cell lines. Tests at the community- and ecosystem-level were almost missing for organisms other than microorganisms and algae. In addition, we provide an overview of the various extrapolation challenges faced in using data from these tests and suggest some forward looking perspectives. Although extrapolating the measured responses to relevant protection goals remains challenging, the combination of ecotoxicological experiments and models is key for a more comprehensive assessment of the effects of chemical stressors to aquatic ecosystems.

Using TKTD Models in Combination with In Vivo Enzyme Inhibition Assays to Investigate the Mechanisms behind Synergistic Interactions across Two Species

The aim of this study is to compare the azole synergy across an insect, Chironomus riparius, and a crustacean species, Daphnia magna. We use a combination of in vivo measurements of cytochrome P450 monooxygenase (CYP) biotransformation potential and toxicokinetic (TK) and toxicodynamic (TD) modeling to understand the mechanism behind the synergy of two azole fungicides: the imidazole prochloraz and the triazole propiconazole on the pyrethroid insecticide α-cypermethrin. For both species, the synergistic effect of prochloraz was well-described by its effect on in vivo CYP activity, which corresponded to the biotransformation rate of the TK model parameterized on the survival data of the mixture experiment. For propiconazole, however, there were 100-fold and 50-fold differences between the 50% effect concentration of in vivo CYP activity and the modeled biotransformation rate for C. riparius and D. magna, respectively. Propiconazole, therefore, seems to induce synergy through a mechanism that cannot be quantified solely by the CYP activity assay used in this study in either of the two species. We discuss the differences between prochloraz and propiconazole as synergists across the two species in the light of the type and time dynamics of affected biotransformation processes.

Integrating Bioavailability of Metals in Fish Population Models

Population models are increasingly being used to extrapolate individual-level effects of chemicals, including metals, to population-level effects. For metals, it is also important to take into account their bioavailability to correctly predict metal toxicity in natural waters. However, to our knowledge, no models exist that integrate metal bioavailability into population modeling. Therefore, our main aims were to 1) incorporate the bioavailability of copper (Cu) and zinc (Zn) into an individual-based model (IBM) of rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss), and 2) predict how survival-time concentration data translate to population-level effects. For each test water, reduced versions of the general unified threshold model of survival (GUTS-RED) were calibrated using the complete survival-time concentration data. The GUTS-RED individual tolerance (IT) showed the best fit in the different test waters. Little variation between the different test waters was found for 2 GUTS-RED-IT parameters. The GUTS-RED-IT parameter "median of distribution of thresholds" (m_w ) showed a strong positive relation with the Ca²⁺ , Mg²⁺ , Na⁺ , and H⁺ ion activities. Therefore, m_w formed the base of the calibrated GUTS bioavailability model (GUTS-BLM), which predicted 30-d x% lethal concentration (LCx) values within a 2-fold error. The GUTS-BLM was combined with an IBM, inSTREAM-Gen, into a GUTS-BLM-IBM. Assuming that juvenile survival was the only effect of Cu and Zn exposure, population-level effect concentrations were predicted to be 1.3 to 6.2 times higher than 30-d laboratory LCx values, with the larger differences being associated with higher interindividual variation of metal sensitivity. The proposed GUTS-BLM-IBM model can provide insight into metal bioavailability and effects at the population level and could be further improved by incorporating sublethal effects of Cu and Zn. Environ Toxicol Chem 2021;40:2764-2780. © 2021 SETAC.

The toxicity and toxicokinetics of imidacloprid and a bioactive metabolite to two aquatic arthropod species

Previous studies have explored effects of imidacloprid and its metabolites on terrestrial species, such as bees, and indicated the importance of some active metabolites. However, the biotransformation of IMI and the toxicity of its metabolites to aquatic arthropods are largely unknown, especially the mechanisms driving species sensitivity differences and time-cumulative toxicity effects. To assess the potential effects of the metabolization of IMI and the toxicokinetics and toxicity of the metabolite(s) on aquatic arthropods, we first studied the acute toxicity of IMI and relevant metabolites to the mayfly species Cloen dipterum (sensitive to IMI) and the amphipod species Gammarus pulex (less sensitive to IMI). Secondly, toxicokinetic experiments were conducted using both the parent compound and imidacloprid-olefin (IMI-ole), a metabolite assessed as toxic in the acute tests and defined as bioactive. Of the four tested metabolites, only IMI-ole was readily biotransformed from the parent IMI and showed similar toxicity to C. dipterum as IMI. However, C. dipterum was hardly able to eliminate IMI-ole from its body. For G. pulex, IMI-ole was also the only detected metabolite causing toxicity, but the biotransformation of IMI to IMI-ole was slower and lower in G. pulex compared to C. dipterum, and G. pulex eliminated IMI-ole quicker than C. dipterum. Our results on internal kinetics of IMI and IMI-ole, and on biotransformation of IMI indicated that the metabolite IMI-ole was toxic and was rather persistent inside the body tissue of both invertebrate species, especially for C. dipterum. In conclusion, as IMI and IMI-ole have similar toxicity and IMI was replaced rapidly by IMI-ole which in turn was poorly eliminated by C. dipterum, the overall toxicity is a function of dose and time. As a result, no long-term threshold of effects of IMI may exist for C. dipterum as the poor elimination results in an ongoing increase of toxicity over time for mayflies as also found experimentally in previous published papers.

Disentangling Mechanisms Behind Chronic Lethality through Toxicokinetic-Toxicodynamic Modeling

Ecotoxicological profiles of the 3 insecticides imidacloprid, thiacloprid, and flupyradifurone in terms of acute and chronic effects were analyzed in Chironomus riparius. Toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic modeling revealed that chironomids would die from starvation as a result of prolonged feeding inhibition under chronic exposures. The starvation effect is an indirect cause for mortality, which, for the neonicotinoids, adds to the direct/acute mortality, although the results suggests that this additional effect is not relevant for flupyradifurone. Environ Toxicol Chem 2021;40:1706-1712. © 2021 Bayer Inc. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of SETAC.

Neonicotinoid Insecticides from a Marine Perspective: Acute and Chronic Copepod Testing and Derivation of Environmental Quality Standards

Neonicotinoid insecticides have become of global concern for the aquatic environment. Harpacticoid copepods are among the organisms most sensitive to neonicotinoids. We exposed the brackish copepod Nitocra spinipes to 4 neonicotinoid insecticides (clothianidin, imidacloprid, thiacloprid, and thiamethoxam) to investigate acute toxicity on adults (96-h exposure) and effects on larval development (7-d exposure). We used these results in combination with publicly available ecotoxicity data to derive environmental quality standards (EQS). These EQS were ultimately used in a single-substance and mixture risk assessment for the Belgian part of the North Sea. Acute toxicity testing revealed that immobilization is a more sensitive endpoint than mortality, with 96-h median effect concentration (EC50) values of 6.9, 7.2, 25, and 120 µg L^-1 for clothianidin, thiacloprid, imidacloprid, and thiamethoxam, respectively. In addition, the larval development tests resulted in 7-d no-observed-effect concentrations (NOECs) of 2.5, 2.7, 4.2, and >99 µg L^-1 for clothianidin, thiacloprid, imidacloprid, and thiamethoxam, respectively. The derived saltwater annual average (AA-)EQS were 0.05, 0.0048, 0.002, and 0.016 µg L^-1 for clothianidin, thiacloprid, imidacloprid, and thiamethoxam, respectively. Finally, the risk characterization revealed some exceedances of the AA-EQS in Belgian harbors for imidacloprid (number of exceedances, n = 2/4), for thiacloprid (n = 1/4), for thiamethoxam (n = 1/4), and for the mixture of the 4 neonicotinoids (n = 4/4), but not at the open sea. At the open sea site, the toxic unit sums relative to the AA-EQS were 0.72 and 0.22, suggesting no mixture risk, albeit with a relatively small margin of safety. Including short-term EC10 (96-h) values of N. spinipes for the AA-EQS derivation led to a refinement of the AA-EQS for clothianidin and thiamethoxam, suggesting their use for the AA-EQS derivation because one of the overarching goals of the definition of EQS is to protect species at the population level. Environ Toxicol Chem 2021;40:1353-1367. © 2021 SETAC.

High Tolerance and Delayed Responses of Daphnia magna to Neonicotinoid Insecticide Imidacloprid: Toxicokinetic and Toxicodynamic Modeling

Species sensitivity to neonicotinoids has been shown to be highly variable among aquatic invertebrates. Toxicokinetic and toxicodynamic (TKTD) models were constructed to mechanistically elucidate the susceptibility of Daphnia magna to imidacloprid. D. magna was highly tolerant to single short-term exposure to imidacloprid (96-h LC50 of 8.47 μg/mL), but delayed and carry-over toxicity occurred under repeated pulse exposures. Kinetic distribution of imidacloprid between exoskeleton and soft tissues of D. magna was evaluated using a newly developed method. Approximately 84% imidacloprid was distributed to soft tissues but was rapidly depurated from the tissue (t_1/2 of 1.2 h), resulting in low bioaccumulation and high tolerance. TKTD modeling also successfully simulated the survival of D. magna after pulsed exposures. The calculated recovery time was 45 d, indicating significant delayed and carry-over toxicity of the insecticide. While complete elimination of imidacloprid only took about 5 h (TK), slow damage recovery (45 d) caused slow organism recovery (TD). Consequently, although D. magna was tolerant to imidacloprid due to fast depuration from soft tissue, long damage recovery time significantly enhanced the toxicity under repeated pulse exposures. Our study highlights the necessity of integrating delayed and carry-over toxicity quantification in assessing the risk of neonicotinoids to aquatic invertebrates.

Binding properties to nicotinic acetylcholine receptors can explain differential toxicity of neonicotinoid insecticides in Chironomidae

Neonicotinoids are neuroactive insecticides commonly detected in freshwater ecosystems. Recent studies have indicated that these compounds are markedly toxic to Chironomidae, a widespread family of ecologically important aquatic insects. However, despite their sensitivity, the pharmacological mechanisms driving neonicotinoid toxicity have yet to be characterized in these insect species. Here, we used a combination of saturation and competition binding studies to characterize neonicotinoid binding properties to nicotinic acetylcholine receptors (nAChR) in two different Chironomidae (Chironomus riparius and Chironomus dilutus) at two different life stages (larval and adult). Using radiolabeled imidacloprid ([³H]-IMI), we characterized and compared receptor density (B_max), imidacloprid binding affinity (K_D), and receptor binding affinity (K_i) to three different neonicotinoid competitors (imidacloprid, clothianidin, and thiamethoxam). We then compared receptor density and binding affinity parameters derived for Chironomidae to data previously generated for other dipterans and agricultural pests. We found that there were limited differences in neonicotinoid binding between C. riparius and C. dilutus, with both organisms demonstrating high affinities for imidacloprid (K_D = 0.22-0.87 nM) and high receptor densities (B_max = 0.92-6.53 pmol/mg). However, there were significant differences between life-stages, with larvae expressing higher densities of nicotinic acetylcholine receptors and higher imidacloprid affinities than adults. Moreover, there were compound-specific differences in receptor affinity, with larval stages displaying relative affinities (K_i) that generally correlated with acute neonicotinoid toxicity (e.g. clothianidin ≥ imidacloprid >>> thiamethoxam). Finally, compared to other dipterans and agricultural pests, Chironomidae display very high densities of high affinity nicotinic acetylcholine receptors, which likely contribute to their sensitivity. Results indicated that receptor-level differences in neonicotinoid binding may be responsible for ecotoxicological differences amongst distinct insect species, and they likely play a role in life stage-, and compound-level toxicity differences previously observed for Chironomidae. Overall, this study highlights the value of understanding the toxicological mechanisms of action of neonicotinoids in sensitive, non-target aquatic insects, to better predict adverse effects associated with unintentional neonicotinoid exposure.

Application of General Unified Threshold Models of Survival Models for Regulatory Aquatic Pesticide Risk Assessment Illustrated with an Example for the Insecticide Chlorpyrifos

Mathematical models within the General Unified Threshold models of Survival (GUTS) framework translate time-variable chemical exposure information into expected survival of animals. The GUTS models are species and compound specific and explicitly describe the internal exposure dynamics in an organism (toxicokinetics) and the related damage and effect dynamics (toxicodynamics), thereby connecting the external exposure concentration dynamics with the simulated mortality or immobility over time. In a recent scientific opinion on toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic (TKTD) models published by the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA), the GUTS modeling framework was considered ready for use in the aquatic risk assessment for pesticides and aquatic fauna. The GUTS models are suggested for use in risk assessment, if they are sufficiently validated for a specific substance-species combination. This paper aims to illustrate how they can be used in the regulatory environmental risk assessment for pesticides for a specific type of refinement, that is, when risks are triggered by lower tiers in acute as well as in chronic risk assessment and mortality or immobility is the critical endpoint. This approach involves the evaluation of time-variable exposure regimes in a so-called "Tier-2C" assessment. The insecticide chlorpyrifos was selected as an example compound because a large data set was available. The GUTS models for 13 different freshwater arthropods and 8 different theoretical aquatic exposure profiles were used to calculate a series of GUTS-based risk estimates, including exposure profile-specific multiplication factors leading to 50% mortality or immobility at the end of the tested profile (LP50/EP50) as "margins of safety." To put the use of GUTS models within the tiered aquatic risk assessment into perspective, GUTS models for the 13 aquatic arthropods were also used to predict the environmental risks of a measured chlorpyrifos exposure profile from an experimental ditch study (Tier-3 approach), and the results are discussed in the context of calibration of the tiered approach. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2021;17:243-258. © 2020 The Authors. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Society of Environmental Toxicology & Chemistry (SETAC).

Effect Modeling Quantifies the Difference Between the Toxicity of Average Pesticide Concentrations and Time-Variable Exposures from Water Quality Monitoring

Synthetic chemicals are frequently detected in water bodies, and their concentrations vary over time. Water monitoring programs typically employ either a sequence of grab samples or continuous sampling, followed by chemical analysis. Continuous time-proportional sampling yields the time-weighted average concentration, which is taken as proxy for the real, time-variable exposure. However, we do not know how much the toxicity of the average concentration differs from the toxicity of the corresponding fluctuating exposure profile. We used toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic models (invertebrates, fish) and population growth models (algae, duckweed) to calculate the margin of safety in moving time windows across measured aquatic concentration time series (7 pesticides) in 5 streams. A longer sampling period (14 d) for time-proportional sampling leads to more deviations from the real chemical stress than shorter sampling durations (3 d). The associated error is a factor of 4 or less in the margin of safety value toward underestimating and an error of factor 9 toward overestimating chemical stress in the most toxic time windows. Under- and overestimations occur with approximate equal frequency and are very small compared with the overall variation, which ranged from 0.027 to 2.4 × 10¹⁰ (margin of safety values). We conclude that continuous, time-proportional sampling for a period of 3 and 14 d for acute and chronic assessment, respectively, yields sufficiently accurate average concentrations to assess ecotoxicological effects. Environ Toxicol Chem 2020;39:2158-2168. © 2020 The Authors. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of SETAC.

Simulating Honey Bee Large-Scale Colony Feeding Studies Using the BEEHAVE Model-Part I: Model Validation

In pesticide risk assessments, semifield studies, such as large-scale colony feeding studies (LSCFSs), are conducted to assess potential risks at the honey bee colony level. However, such studies are very cost and time intensive, and high overwintering losses of untreated control hives have been observed in some studies. Honey bee colony models such as BEEHAVE may provide tools to systematically assess multiple factors influencing colony outcomes, to inform study design, and to estimate pesticide impacts under varying environmental conditions. Before they can be used reliably, models should be validated to demonstrate they can appropriately reproduce patterns observed in the field. Despite the recognized need for validation, methodologies to be used in the context of applied ecological models are not agreed on. For the parameterization, calibration, and validation of BEEHAVE, we used control data from multiple LSCFSs. We conducted detailed visual and quantitative performance analyses as a demonstration of validation methodologies. The BEEHAVE outputs showed good agreement with apiary-specific validation data sets representing the first year of the studies. However, the simulations of colony dynamics in the spring periods following overwintering were identified as less reliable. The comprehensive validation effort applied provides important insights that can inform the usability of BEEHAVE in applications related to higher tier risk assessments. In addition, the validation methodology applied could be used in a wider context of ecological models. Environ Toxicol Chem 2020;39:2269-2285. © 2020 The Authors. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of SETAC.

Improving Risk Assessment by Predicting the Survival of Field Gammarids Exposed to Dynamic Pesticide Mixtures

Exposure assessment of pesticides has substantially improved over time, with methods that now include a combination of advanced analytical techniques and fate/transport models to evaluate their spatiotemporal distribution. However, the current regulatory environmental risk assessment considers thresholds from laboratory studies completed under standardized conditions that do not reflect environmental dynamics. Using the General Unified Threshold model for Survival (GUTS) model framework, we predicted the impact of time-varying pesticide exposures on the survival of gammarids in a small agricultural stream. The LP₅₀ values were used as an additional metric for assessing risks (defined in GUTS as a multiplication factor applied to the concentration time series to induce 50% mortality by the end of exposure). Although real-case exposures to individual pesticides were predicted to produce little to no impact on survival, the LP₅₀ values indicate acute (LP₅₀ ≤ 100) and/or chronic (LP₅₀ ≤ 10) toxicities for azoxystrobin, chlorpyrifos, diazinon, and imidacloprid, while risk to propiconazole exposure was considered very low (LP₅₀ ≫ 100). Finally, the model was extended to reflect mixture toxicity via concentration addition. It predicted risks under acute and chronic exposures to organophosphates and neonicotinoids. Given that gammarids are simultaneously exposed to multiple chemicals and other stressors throughout their lifetime, a decline in survival probabilities due to chemical stress can likely influence their overall fitness. We recognize that some assumptions require validation, but our work included a level of realism that can assist risk managers when evaluating the cumulative consequences of chemical exposure.

Linking Morphology, Toxicokinetic, and Toxicodynamic Traits of Aquatic Invertebrates to Pyrethroid Sensitivity

Pyrethroid insecticides are known to be highly toxic to most aquatic nontarget organisms, but little is known about the mechanisms causing some species to be highly sensitive while others are hardly affected by the pyrethroids. The aim of the present study was to measure the sensitivity (EC₅₀-values) of 10 aquatic invertebrates toward a 24 h pulse of the pyrethroid cypermethrin and subsequently test if the difference in sensitivity could be explained by measured morphological and physiological traits and modeled toxicokinetic (TK) and toxicodynamic (TD) parameters. Large differences were observed for the measured uptake and elimination kinetics, with bioconcentration factors (BCFs) ranging from 53 to 2337 at the end of the exposure. Similarly, large differences were observed for the TDs, and EC₅₀-values after 168 h varied 120-fold. Modeling the whole organism cypermethrin concentrations indicated compartmentation into a sorbed fraction and two internal fractions: a bioavailable and non-bioavailable internal fraction. Strong correlations between surface/volume area and the TK parameters (sorption and uptake rate constants and the resulting BCF) were found, but none of the TK parameters correlated with sensitivity. The only parameter consistently correlating with sensitivity across all species was the killing rate constant of the GUTS-RED-SD model (the reduced general unified threshold models of survival assuming stochastic death), indicating that sensitivity toward cypermethrin is more related to the TD parameters than to TK parameters.

Exposure pattern-specific species sensitivity distributions for the ecological risk assessments of insecticides

In the higher tiers of pesticide risk assessment, the Species Sensitivity Distribution (SSD) concept is often used to establish the effect threshold defined as the concentration protecting 95% of the species (Hazardous Concentration 5%, HC5). The toxicity data included in SSDs are normally established using a constant exposure regime. However, the exposure of pesticides in the field is often characterised by a variable exposure regime. Toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic (TKTD) models can be used to extrapolate the toxic effects of a chemical to a specific, time-variable exposure regime. The aim of this paper was to develop Exposure Pattern Specific SSDs (EPS-SSDs) for three insecticides using TKTD models and to compare the HC5 of different exposure patterns with the same time-weighted average concentration to evaluate whether the use of EPS-SSDs would change the outcome of the ecological risk assessment. The EPS-SSDs were developed by estimating TKTD parameters for the compounds chlorpyrifos, imidacloprid and lambda-cyhalothrin using results from standard, 96 h, single species tests. These parameter estimates were used for TKTD modelling to determine toxicity thresholds (e.g. LC10 and LC50) for contrasting exposure patterns after certain evaluation times (4, 10 or 100 days). HC5 values were constructed with TKTD-predicted LC10- and LC50- values for different exposure patterns characterised by similar time-weighted average concentrations. Differences between those HC5 values ranged from a factor 1 to a factor 2.3 for the short evaluation period (4 d). This difference was smaller when using an evaluation period of 10 days instead of 4 days and selecting the TKTD-predicted LC10 instead of TKTD-predicted LC50 based HC5s. For the long term evaluation period (100 d), a maximum difference of a factor of 30 was found.

Recommendations to address uncertainties in environmental risk assessment using toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic models

Providing reliable environmental quality standards (EQSs) is a challenging issue in environmental risk assessment (ERA). These EQSs are derived from toxicity endpoints estimated from dose-response models to identify and characterize the environmental hazard of chemical compounds released by human activities. These toxicity endpoints include the classical x% effect/lethal concentrations at a specific time t (EC/LC(x, t)) and the new multiplication factors applied to environmental exposure profiles leading to x% effect reduction at a specific time t (MF(x, t), or denoted LP(x, t) by the EFSA). However, classical dose-response models used to estimate toxicity endpoints have some weaknesses, such as their dependency on observation time points, which are likely to differ between species (e.g., experiment duration). Furthermore, real-world exposure profiles are rarely constant over time, which makes the use of classical dose-response models difficult and may prevent the derivation of MF(x, t). When dealing with survival or immobility toxicity test data, these issues can be overcome with the use of the general unified threshold model of survival (GUTS), a toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic (TKTD) model that provides an explicit framework to analyse both time- and concentration-dependent data sets as well as obtain a mechanistic derivation of EC/LC(x, t) and MF(x, t) regardless of x and at any time t of interest. In ERA, the assessment of a risk is inherently built upon probability distributions, such that the next critical step is to characterize the uncertainties of toxicity endpoints and, consequently, those of EQSs. With this perspective, we investigated the use of a Bayesian framework to obtain the uncertainties from the calibration process and to propagate them to model predictions, including LC(x, t) and MF(x, t) derivations. We also explored the mathematical properties of LC(x, t) and MF(x, t) as well as the impact of different experimental designs to provide some recommendations for a robust derivation of toxicity endpoints leading to reliable EQSs: avoid computing LC(x, t) and MF(x, t) for extreme x values (0 or 100%), where uncertainty is maximal; compute MF(x, t) after a long period of time to take depuration time into account and test survival under pulses with different periods of time between them.

Neonicotinoid insecticide mixtures: Evaluation of laboratory-based toxicity predictions under semi-controlled field conditions

Neonicotinoid insecticide mixtures are frequently detected in aquatic environments in agricultural regions. Recent laboratory studies have indicated that neonicotinoid mixtures can elicit greater-than-additive toxicity in sensitive aquatic insects (e.g. Chironomus dilutus). However, this has yet to be validated under field conditions. In this study, we compared the chronic (28- and 56-day) toxicity of three neonicotinoids (imidacloprid, clothianidin, and thiamethoxam) and their mixtures to natural aquatic insect communities. Using experimental in-situ enclosures (limnocorrals), we exposed wetland insects to single-compounds and binary mixtures at equitoxic concentrations (1 toxic unit under the principle of Concentration Addition). We assessed the composition of all emerged insect taxa and the cumulative Chironomidae emergence and biomass over time. In treated limnocorrals, there were subtle shifts in community composition, with greater mean proportions of emergent Trichoptera and Odonata. Cumulative emergence and biomass increased over time and there was a significant interaction between time and treatment. At 28 days, cumulative Chironomidae emergence and biomass were not significantly different between neonicotinoid treatments and controls. However, cumulative emergence in the imidacloprid, clothianidin, and clothianidin-thiamethoxam treatments were 42%, 20%, and 44% lower than predicted from applied doses. At 56 days, effects on cumulative emergence and biomass were significant for imidacloprid, clothianidin, and the clothianidin-thiamethoxam mixture. Contrary to laboratory predictions, mixtures were not more toxic than single compounds under semi-controlled field settings. Furthermore, only clothianidin significantly shifted sex-ratios towards female-dominated populations. Results showed that the responses of natural Chironomidae populations to neonicotinoids and their mixtures cannot be adequately predicted from laboratory-derived single-species models, and although occasional overdosing may have influenced the magnitude of effects, reductions in Chironomidae emergence and biomass can occur at average neonicotinoid concentrations below some current water quality guidelines. Therefore, neonicotinoid guidelines should be revised to ensure that Chironomidae and other sensitive aquatic insects inhabiting agricultural wetlands are adequately protected.

Effects of imidacloprid and a neonicotinoid mixture on aquatic invertebrate communities under Mediterranean conditions

Neonicotinoid insecticides are considered contaminants of concern due to their high toxicity potential to non-target terrestrial and aquatic organisms. In this study we evaluated the sensitivity of aquatic invertebrates to a single application of imidacloprid and an equimolar mixture of five neonicotinoids (imidacloprid, acetamiprid, thiacloprid, thiamethoxam, clothianidin) using mesocosms under Mediterranean conditions. Cyclopoida, Cloeon dipterum and Chironomini showed the highest sensitivity to neonicotinoids, with calculated NOECs below 0.2 μg/L. The sensitivity of these taxa was found to be higher than that reported in previous studies performed under less warm conditions, proving the high influence of temperature on neonicotinoid toxicity. The short-term responses of the zooplankton and the macroinvertebrate communities to similar imidacloprid and neonicotinoid mixture concentrations were very similar, suggesting that the concentration addition model can be used as a plausible hyphotesis to assess neonicotinoid mixture effects in aquatic ecosystems. Long-term mixture toxicity assessments, however, should consider the fate of the evaluated substances in the environment of concern. As part of this study, we also demonstrated that Species Sensitivity Distributions constructed with chronic laboratory toxicity data and calculated (multi-substance) Potentially Affected Fractions provide an accurate estimation to asssess the ecotoxicologial risks of imidacloprid and neonicotinoid mixtures to aquatic invertebrate species assemblages.

Scientific Opinion on the state of the art of Toxicokinetic/Toxicodynamic (TKTD) effect models for regulatory risk assessment of pesticides for aquatic organisms

Following a request from EFSA, the Panel on Plant Protection Products and their Residues (PPR) developed an opinion on the state of the art of Toxicokinetic/Toxicodynamic (TKTD) models and their use in prospective environmental risk assessment (ERA) for pesticides and aquatic organisms. TKTD models are species‐ and compound‐specific and can be used to predict (sub)lethal effects of pesticides under untested (time‐variable) exposure conditions. Three different types of TKTD models are described, viz., (i) the ‘General Unified Threshold models of Survival’ (GUTS), (ii) those based on the Dynamic Energy Budget theory (DEBtox models), and (iii) models for primary producers. All these TKTD models follow the principle that the processes influencing internal exposure of an organism, (TK), are separated from the processes that lead to damage and effects/mortality (TD). GUTS models can be used to predict survival rate under untested exposure conditions. DEBtox models explore the effects on growth and reproduction of toxicants over time, even over the entire life cycle. TKTD model for primary producers and pesticides have been developed for algae, Lemna and Myriophyllum. For all TKTD model calibration, both toxicity data on standard test species and/or additional species can be used. For validation, substance and species‐specific data sets from independent refined‐exposure experiments are required. Based on the current state of the art (e.g. lack of documented and evaluated examples), the DEBtox modelling approach is currently limited to research applications. However, its great potential for future use in prospective ERA for pesticides is recognised. The GUTS model and the Lemna model are considered ready to be used in risk assessment.