Evaluating the effect of rainfall variability on vegetation establishment in a semidesert grassland

Mapping the spatial variability of rainfall from a physiographic-based multilinear regression: model development and application to the Southwestern Iberian Peninsula

A physiographic-based multilinear regression model supported by GIS was developed to estimate spatial rainfall variability in the Southwest Iberian Peninsula. The area study includes a wide diversity of landscape features and comprises four Portuguese regions and one Spanish province (totalizing 28,860 km²). The region suffers a very strong Mediterranean influence, with a major cleavage between winter and summer seasons. Thus, the analysis was carried out separately for the wet (October to March) and dry (April to September) semesters. From an initial set of 10 explanatory physiographic variables, five were selected to be used in the multilinear regression, as they allowed generating models by map algebra that fitted well with the last 40 years of monthly rainfall data records. These records were obtained from 163 weather stations, filtered from an initial set of 230 (142 stations in Portugal and 88 in Spain). The correlation between the physiographic-based multilinear regression model and a model obtained by interpolation from rainfall historical data showed to be good or very good in approximately 75% of the area under study. Results show that physiographic-based models can be effectively used to estimate rainfall where there is a lack of rain gauges, or to densify spatial resolution of rainfall between rain gauges.

Native lagomorphs suppress grass establishment in a shrub-encroached, semiarid grassland

Shrub encroachment into arid grasslands has been associated with reduced grass abundance, increased soil erosion, and local declines in biodiversity. Livestock overgrazing and the associated reduction of fine fuels has been a primary driver of shrub encroachment in the southwestern United States, but shrublands continue to persist despite livestock removal and grassland restoration efforts. We hypothesized that an herbivory feedback from native mammals may contribute to continued suppression of grasses after the removal of livestock. Our herbivore exclusion experiment in southeastern Arizona included five treatment levels and allowed access to native mammals based on their relative body size, separating the effects of rodents, lagomorphs, and mule deer. We included two control treatments and replicated each treatment 10 times (n = 50). We introduced uniform divisions of lawn sod (Cynodon dactylon) into each exclosure for 24-hr periods prior to (n = 2) and following (n = 2) the monsoon rains and used motion-activated cameras to document herbivore visitations. In the pre-monsoon trials, treatments that allowed lagomorph access had less sod biomass relative to other treatments (p < 0.001), averaging 44% (SD 36%) and 29% (SD 45%) remaining biomass after the 24-hr trial periods. Following the onset of monsoons, differences in remaining biomass among treatments disappeared. Desert cottontails (Sylvilagus audubonii) were detected more frequently than any of the other 11 herbivore species present at the site, accounting for 83% of detections during the pre-monsoon trials. Significantly more (p < 0.001) desert cottontails were detected during the pre-monsoon trials (2,077) compared to the post-monsoon trials (174), which coincided with biomass removal from lagomorph accessible treatments. We conclude that desert cottontails are significant consumers of herbaceous vegetation in shrub-encroached arid grasslands and they, along with other native herbivores, may act as a biotic feedback contributing to the competitive advantage and persistence of shrubs.

Biophysical risks to carbon sequestration and storage in Australian drylands

Carbon abatement schemes that reduce land clearing and promote revegetation are now an important component of climate change policy globally. There is considerable potential for these schemes to operate in drylands which are spatially extensive. However, projects in these environments risk failure through unplanned release of stored carbon to the atmosphere. In this review, we identify factors that may adversely affect the success of vegetation-based carbon abatement projects in dryland ecosystems, evaluate their likelihood of occurrence, and estimate the potential consequences for carbon storage and sequestration. We also evaluate management strategies to reduce risks posed to these carbon abatement projects. Identified risks were primarily disturbances, including unplanned fire, drought, and grazing. Revegetation projects also risk recruitment failure, thereby failing to reach projected rates of sequestration. Many of these risks are dependent on rainfall, which is highly variable in drylands and susceptible to further variation under climate change. Resprouting vegetation is likely to be less vulnerable to disturbance and have faster recovery rates upon release from disturbance. We conclude that there is a strong impetus for identifying management strategies and risk reduction mechanisms for carbon abatement projects. Risk mitigation would be enhanced by effective co-ordination of mitigation strategies at scales larger than individual abatement project boundaries, and by implementing risk assessment throughout project planning and implementation stages. Reduction of risk is vital for maximising carbon sequestration of individual projects and for reducing barriers to the establishment of new projects entering the market.

High precipitation and seeded species competition reduce seeded shrub establishment during dryland restoration

Drylands comprise 40% of Earth's land mass and are critical to food security, carbon sequestration, and threatened and endangered wildlife. Exotic weed invasions, overgrazing, energy extraction, and other factors have degraded many drylands, and this has placed an increased emphasis on dryland restoration. The increased restoration focus has generated a wealth of experience, innovations and empirical data, yet the goal of restoring diverse, native, dryland plant assemblages composed of grasses, forbs, and shrubs has generally proven beyond reach. Of particular concern are shrubs, which often fail to establish or establish at trivially low densities. We used data from two Great Plains, USA coal mines to explore factors regulating shrub establishment. Our predictor data related to weather and restoration (e.g., seed rates, rock cover) variables, and our response data described shrub abundances on fields of the mines. We found that seeded non-shrubs, especially grasses, formed an important competitive barrier to shrub establishment: With every one standard deviation increase in non-shrub seed rate, the probability shrubs were present decreased ~0.1 and shrub cover decreased ~35%. Since new fields were seeded almost every year for > 20 years, the data also provided a unique opportunity to explore effects of stochastic drivers (i.e., precipitation, year effects). With every one standard deviation increase in precipitation the first growing season following seeding, the probability shrubs were present decreased ~0.07 and shrub cover decreased ~47%. High precipitation appeared to harm shrubs by increasing grass growth/competition. Also, weak evidence suggested shrub establishment was better in rockier fields where grass abundance/competition was lower. Multiple lines of evidence suggest reducing grass seed rates below levels typically used in Great Plains restoration would benefit shrubs without substantially impacting grass stand development over the long term. We used Bayesian statistics to estimate effects of seed rates and other restoration predictors probabilistically to allow knowledge of the predictors' effects to be refined through time in an adaptive management framework. We believe this framework could improve restoration planning in a variety of systems where restoration outcomes remain highly uncertain and ongoing restoration efforts are continually providing new data of value for reducing the uncertainty.

Seedling responses to water pulses in shrubs with contrasting histories of grassland encroachment

Woody plant encroachment into grasslands has occurred worldwide, but it is unclear why some tree and shrub species have been markedly more successful than others. For example, Prosopis velutina has proliferated in many grasslands of the Sonoran Desert in North America over the past century, while other shrub species with similar growth form and life history, such as Acacia greggii, have not. We conducted a glasshouse experiment to assess whether differences in early seedling development could help explain why one species and not the other came to dominate many Sonoran Desert grasslands. We established eight watering treatments mimicking a range of natural precipitation patterns and harvested seedlings 16 or 17 days after germination. A. greggii had nearly 7 times more seed mass than P. velutina, but P. velutina emerged earlier (by 3.0±0.3 d) and grew faster (by 8.7±0.5 mg d⁻¹). Shoot mass at harvest was higher in A. greggii (99±6 mg seedling⁻¹) than in P. velutina (74±2 mg seedling⁻¹), but there was no significant difference in root mass (54±3 and 49±2 mg seedling⁻¹, respectively). Taproot elongation was differentially sensitive to water supply: under the highest initial watering pulse, taproots were 52±19 mm longer in P. velutina than in A. greggii. Enhanced taproot elongation under favorable rainfall conditions could give nascent P. velutina seedlings growth and survivorship advantages by helping reduce competition with grasses and maintain contact with soil water during drought. Conversely, A. greggii's greater investment in mass per seed appeared to provide little return in early seedling growth. We suggest that such differences in recruitment traits and their sensitivities to environmental conditions may help explain ecological differences between species that are highly similar as adults and help identify pivotal drivers of shrub encroachment into grasslands.