Risk Stratification in Multiple Myeloma

Interpretations of the Role of Plasma Albumin in Prognostic Indices: A Literature Review

This review assesses how publications interpret factors that influence the serum or plasma albumin (PA) level in prognostic indices, focusing on inflammation and nutrition. On PubMed, a search for "albumin AND prognosis" yielded 23,919 results. From these records, prognostic indices were retrieved, and their names were used as search strings on PubMed. Indices found in 10 or more original research articles were included. The same search strings, restricted to "Review" or "Systematic review", retrieved yielded on the indices. The data comprised the 10 latest original research articles and up to 10 of the latest reviews. Thirty indices had 294 original research articles (6 covering two indices) and 131 reviews, most of which were from recent years. A total of 106 articles related the PA level to inflammation, and 136 related the PA level to nutrition. For the reviews, the equivalent numbers were 54 and 65. In conclusion, more publications mention the PA level as a marker of nutrition rather than inflammation. This is in contrast to several general reviews on albumin and nutritional guidelines, which state that the PA level is a marker of inflammation but not nutrition. Hypoalbuminemia should prompt clinicians to focus on the inflammatory aspects in their patients.

Evaluating the Addition of Clinical and Staging Data to Improve the Pricing Methodology of the Oncology Care Model

PURPOSE

The Oncology Care Model (OCM) is the largest value-based care model focusing on oncology, but the current pricing methodology excludes relevant data on the cancer stage and current clinical status, limiting the precision of the risk adjustment.

METHODS

This analysis evaluated 15,580 episodes of breast cancer, lung cancer, and multiple myeloma, starting between July 1, 2016, and January 1, 2020, with data from a cohort of OCM practices affiliated with academic medical centers. The authors merged clinical data with claims for OCM episodes defined by the Center for Medicare and Medicaid Innovation to identify potential quality improvement opportunities. The regression model evaluated the association of the cancer stage at initial diagnosis and current clinical status with variance to the OCM target price.

RESULTS

Cancer stage at the time of initial diagnosis was significant for breast and lung cancers, with stage IV episodes having the highest losses of -$6,700 (USD) for breast cancer (P < .001) and -$18,470 (USD) for lung cancer (P < .001). Current clinical status had a significant impact for all three cancers in the analysis, with losses correlated with clinical complexity. Breast cancer and multiple myeloma episodes categorized as recurrent or progressive disease had significantly higher losses than stable episodes, at -$6,755 (USD) for breast (P < .001) and -$19,448 (USD) for multiple myeloma (P < .001). Lung cancer episodes categorized as initial diagnosis had significantly fewer losses than stable episodes, at -$3,751 (USD) (P = .001).

CONCLUSION

As the Center for Medicare and Medicaid Innovation designs and launches new oncology-related models, the agency should adopt methodologies that more accurately set target prices, by incorporating relevant clinical data within cancer types to minimize penalizing practices that provide guideline-concordant cancer care.

Application of clinical nomograms to predicting overall survival and event-free survival in multiple myeloma patients: Visualization tools for prognostic stratification

Background

This study aimed to develop reliable nomogram-based predictive models that could guide prognostic stratification and individualized treatments in patients with multiple myeloma (MM).

Methods

Clinical information of 560 patients was extracted from the MM dataset of the MicroArray Quality Control (MAQC)-II project. The patients were divided into a development cohort (n = 350) and an internal validation cohort (n = 210) according to the therapeutic regimens received. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were performed to identify independent prognostic factors for nomogram construction. Nomogram performance was assessed using concordance indices, the area under the curve, calibration curves, and decision curve analysis. The nomograms were also validated in an external cohort of 56 patients newly diagnosed with MM at Nanjing Drum Tower Hospital from May 2016 to June 2019.

Results

Lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), albumin, and cytogenetic abnormalities were incorporated into the nomogram to predict overall survival (OS), whereas LDH, β2-microglobulin, and cytogenetic abnormalities were incorporated into the nomogram to predict event-free survival (EFS). The nomograms showed good predictive performances in the development, internal validation, and external validation cohorts. Additionally, we observed a superior prognostic predictive ability in nomograms compared to that of the International Staging System. According to the prognostic nomograms, risk stratification was applied to divide the patients into two risk groups. The OS and EFS rates of low-risk patients were significantly better than those of high-risk patients, suggesting a greater function of the nomogram models for risk stratification.

Conclusion

Two simple-to-use prognostic models were established and validated. The proposed nomograms have potential clinical applications in predicting OS and EFS for patients with MM.

Evaluation of Prognostic Significance of the International Staging System According to Glomerular Filtration Rate in Newly Diagnosed Multiple Myeloma Patients Eligible for Autologous Stem Cell Transplantation

Objective

The prognosis of multiple myeloma (MM) patients is highly heterogeneous. The aim of this study is to determine the impact of patients’ renal functions on the prognostic performance of the International Staging System (ISS). In addition, we aimed to evaluate the results of survival of patients with ISS stages and normal renal functions and those with ISS stages and abnormal renal functions with this study.

Materials and Methods

Two hundred and four patients with newly diagnosed MM who received an autologous stem cell transplantation after induction chemotherapy in our tertiary care center between the years of 2001 and 2018 were evaluated.

Results

There were 153 (75%) MM patients who had a glomerular filtration rate (GFR) of ≥60 mL/min and 51 (25%) MM patients who had GFR of <60 mL/min at the time of diagnosis in this study. There was a strong correlation between ISS stage and GFR. The ISS stages were higher in patients who had GFR of <60 mL/min than patients who had GFR of ≥60 mL/min (p<0.001). Patients with GFR of <60 mL/min were significantly more prevalent in the ISS III group than ISS I and II (p<0.001).

Conclusion

This study showed that the ISS provides significant prognostic information in MM patients with GFR of ≥60 mL/min at diagnosis. However, in patients with impaired renal function at the time of diagnosis, B2-microglobulin may not be a good prognostic indicator since it may be affected by renal dysfunction as well as tumor burden.

Super-Enhancer Associated Five-Gene Risk Score Model Predicts Overall Survival in Multiple Myeloma Patients

Multiple myeloma (MM) is a malignant plasma cell tumor with high heterogeneity, characterized by anemia, hypercalcemia, renal failure, and lytic bone lesions. Although various powerful prognostic factors and models have been exploited, the development of more accurate prognosis and treatment for MM patients is still facing many challenges. Given the essential roles of super-enhancer (SE) associated genes in the tumorigenesis of MM, we tried to initially screen and identify the significant prognostic factors from SE associated genes in MM by the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (Lasso) penalized Cox regression, univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis using GSE24080 and GSE9782 datasets. Risk score model of five genes including CSGALNACT1, FAM53B, TAPBPL, REPIN1, and DDX11, was further constructed and the Kaplan-Meier (K-M) curves showed that the low-risk group seems to have better clinical outcome of survival compared to the high-risk group. Time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves presented the favorable performance of the model. An interactive nomogram consisting of the five-gene risk group and eleven clinical traits was established and identified by calibration curves. Therefore, the risk score model of SE associated five genes developed here could be used to predict the prognosis of MM patients, which may assist the clinical treatment of MM patients in the future.

DCEP and bendamustine/prednisone as salvage therapy for quad- and penta-refractory multiple myeloma

Multiple myeloma (MM) almost invariably progresses through novel therapies. Patients with quad-refractory MM (refractory to bortezomib, carfilzomib, lenalidomide, and pomalidomide) and penta-refractory MM (additional refractoriness to daratumumab) have few treatment options. Two chemotherapy regimens, bendamustine/prednisone (BP) and dexamethasone, cyclophosphamide, etoposide, and cisplatin (DCEP), are often used in quad- and penta-refractory MM, but there are limited data on outcomes in this heavily pre-treated population. We conducted a single-center retrospective study to identify all patients who received DCEP and/or BP for quad- or penta-refractory MM. Disease response and refractoriness were defined by International Myeloma Working Group criteria. The primary endpoint was overall response rate (ORR). Secondary endpoints included overall survival (OS), progression-free survival (PFS), and duration of response (DOR). We identified 27 patients who received BP for quad- or penta-refractory MM. The median number of prior lines of therapy was 6. The ORR for BP was 26%. The median PFS for BP was 1.4 months (95% CI 1.1-1.6) and median OS was 8.7 months (95% CI 2.3-15.0). Patients treated with cyclophosphamide had less response to BP. Thirty-one patients received DCEP for quad-refractory or penta-refractory MM. The median number of prior treatment regimens was 8. The ORR to DCEP was 35%. The median PFS was 2.7 months (95% CI 1.5-3.8) and median OS was 6.2 months (95% CI 4.4-7.8). DCEP and BP retain efficacy in quad- and penta-refractory MM. Our analysis supports prospective study of these regimens, possibly in combination or in comparison with other agents in this area of unmet need.

One-lincRNA and five-mRNA based signature for prognosis of multiple myeloma patients undergoing proteasome inhibitors therapy

Multiple myeloma is the second largest malignant tumor of the blood system. Proteasome inhibitors (PIs) currently are effective drugs for some myeloma patients, but their prognosis varies. We extracted the transcriptome expression data and clinical information of myeloma patients from MMRF CoMMpass database, and used the Random Survival Forest Variable Hunting (RSF-VH) algorithm to select 6 highly prognosis-related genes and to develop a 6-genes scoring model, by which the risk score predicted were significantly associated with the progress-free survival (PFS, P<0.001). The median PFS of the high-risk group is 21 months, while it is 29 months in the low-risk group. The scoring model was further validated in the testing cohort. Furthermore, Analysis revealed that the risk score performed better in predicting the multiple myeloma patients' prognosis than the existed staging system, including R-ISS. The risk score is independent with the most existed clinical risk indicators, and the prognostic effectiveness of 6-genes scoring model is homogenous in patients with different clinical observations. Further bioinformatic analysis revealed that the risk score is not only significantly associated with multiple myeloma-related pathways, including immune response, but also with the infiltration of many kinds of immune cells that associated with clinical malignancy. Collectively, the model we developed using one lincRNA and five mRNAs is a robust and effective indicator for myeloma patients' prognosis undergoing proteasome inhibitors therapy.

Next Generation Sequencing-based Validation of the Revised International Staging System for Multiple Myeloma: An Analysis of the MMRF CoMMpass Study

INTRODUCTION

The clinical application of the Revised International Staging System (R-ISS) for multiple myeloma may be limited by heterogeneity in clinical interphase fluorescent in situ hybridization (FISH) practices for detecting chromosomal abnormalities (CAs). Next generation sequencing (NGS)-based FISH (Seq-FISH) has demonstrated improved sensitivity and similar specificity relative to clinical FISH, and provides a standardized, single-pass method for identifying high-risk CAs. To date, calculating R-ISS stage using Seq-FISH (R-ISS-NGS) has not been validated.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

We identified 672 patients with sufficient data to calculate R-ISS-NGS from the Multiple Myeloma Research Foundation (MMRF) CoMMpass Study. R-ISS-NGS was calculated from original ISS stage, lactate dehydrogenase, and CAs detected by Seq-FISH. Endpoints included overall survival and progression-free survival. We conducted multivariate analyses controlling for age and gender in order to compare outcomes across stages I to III of both the original ISS and R-ISS-NGS.

RESULTS

The median follow-up was 24 months. The R-ISS-NGS resulted in significant redistribution of patients into stage II, relative to the original ISS. With respect to stage I, R-ISS-NGS stages II and III of were associated with worse progression-free survival or overall survival, more so than the staging schema of the ISS, thus validating the use of Seq-FISH in staging.

CONCLUSION

Using CAs detected by Seq-FISH and data from the CoMMpass study, we validated the R-ISS with a large, generalizable cohort. This study validates the substitution of Seq-FISH for clinical FISH, especially in large registry studies. Additionally, use of the validated R-ISS-NGS will strengthen outcomes research generated from the CoMMpass study.

The adverse effect of FOPNL genomic variant is reversed by bortezomib-based treatment protocols in multiple myeloma

Fibroblast growth factor receptor 1 oncogene partner N-terminal like gene (FOPNL) rs72773978 polymorphism was identified as an adverse prognostic factor in multiple myeloma (MM). We aimed to investigate the associations of rs72773978 with clinical characteristics and treatment outcome in 373 Hungarian MM patients. In our cohort, FOPNL polymorphism showed differential prognostic effect that depended on the treatment applied. Among patients treated with non-proteasome inhibitor (PI)-based therapy, carriership of the minor allele was significantly associated with adverse overall survival (p=.022). In contrast, the adverse effect was overcome by the application of PI-containing treatment (p=.048). Multivariate analyses revealed the independent adverse effect of rs72773978 on survival in the non-PI-treated group (p=.045), but not in PI treatment (OS: p=.093). We confirmed the adverse prognostic effect of rs72773978 associated with non-PI-based treatment regimens. Our results point to the importance of genotypic prognostic information associated with complex clinical background MM.