Conventional and Genetic Talent Identification in Sports: Will Recent Developments Trace Talent?

Important features of bench press performance in non-disabled and Para athletes: A scoping review

PURPOSE

Understanding important features for performance in non-disabled bench press and Paralympic powerlifting may inform talent identification and transfer models. The aim of this scoping review was to describe features associated with bench press performance.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic search of three electronic databases (PubMed, SportDiscus and EMBASE) to identify studies involving non-disabled and Para athlete populations that investigated features related to bench press one-repetition maximum (1RM), across six domains (anthropometric, body composition, demographic, technical, disability and neuromuscular). Search terms included "resistance training", "para powerlifting' and "one repetition max". No date restrictions were include in searches. Studies using adult participants, with at least six-months of bench press experience, who were able to bench press their body mass were included.

RESULTS

Thirty-two studies met our inclusion criteria. Twenty-four studies involved non-disabled athletes (total n = 2,686; 21.9% female) and eight involved Para athletes (total n = 2,364; 39.4% female). Anthropometric (17 studies) and body composition (12 studies) features were most studied; half of the 32 studies investigated features from a single domain. Of anthropometric variables, upper arm circumference shared the strongest association with bench press 1RM in non-disabled (r = 0.87) and para-athletes (r = 0.65). Upper limb fat free mass (r = 0.91) and body mass index (r = 0.46) were the body composition variables sharing the strongest association with bench press 1RM in non-disabled and para-athletes. Few studies considering the uncertainty of their results. Practices of open and transparent science, such as pre-registration and data sharing, were absent.

CONCLUSION

The development of bench press talent identification and sport transfer models will require future studies to investigate both non-training and training modifiable features, across multiple domains. Large longitudinal studies using information from athlete monitoring databases and multivariable model approaches are needed to understand the interacting features associated with bench press performance, and for the development of talent identification models.

Differences and relationships between talent detection, identification, development and selection in sport: A systematic review

Although there are numerous studies on talent, especially talent identification, development, and selection, both on influencing factors and model construction or talent prediction, they have relatively independently explored some of its stages. Undeniably, talent development is continuous and phased, with specific tasks to be completed at each step, and these steps have certain differences and relationships. The aim of this review is to provide a clear distinction between the entire talent cultivation process, with the purpose of having better methods and measures for each stage to minimize the turnover rate and ensure the integrity of the talent development process. Through searching the Web of Science ™ database, this review was performed according to Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines. Selected were original articles in English containing data or models related to talent detection/identification/development/selection in sports. A total of 16 articles were included in the study by reviewing the literature. This overview presents the differences and relationships between the four stages of talent cultivation, where these different aspects are aim, purpose, approach, and emphasis. The relationship is characterized by continuity, progressive, complementary, and mutually. This finding shows that each stage is not developed independently, but is an integral part of the talent training process. Additionally, better differentiation and strengthening of the links between the various talent cultivation stages are considered to contribute to elite athlete development. This review highlights the differences and relationships that exist at each stage of talent cultivation. Meanwhile, some measures are also proposed to strengthen the connection of these phases and how to reduce the turnover rate of talent, which can provide theoretical references for coaches or stakeholders. Based on the results of the review, it is also recommended that future research on talent cultivation could take into account the intrinsic linkages between the various stages and develop talent training programs in a multidimensional way.

Effects of Early Talent Promotion on Junior and Senior Performance: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

BACKGROUND

Does younger involvement in talent promotion programs (TPPs) facilitate the attainment of higher performance levels? This question is the subject of the present meta-analysis. Many national sport systems have established TPPs such as federations' junior squads (including under-age selection teams) and youth sport academies, and many are making expanding investments in TPPs. TPPs seek to select the most advanced youth high performers at young ages, around puberty or younger, and then strive to further accelerate their performance development. However, studies show 25-55% annual athlete turnover within TPPs. In this context, accelerated biological maturation (puberty, growth spurt), high relative age within one's birth year, and intensified sport-specific childhood/adolescent practice may boost rapid junior performance, but the effects diminish or are reversed by adulthood. Moreover, expanded opportunity costs and risks (time demands, injury, burnout) imposed on young TPP participants may impair their long-term development and even prematurely terminate their career.

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to provide robust and generalizable evidence on the effects of early talent promotion on junior and senior performance through a systematic review and meta-analysis.

METHODS

A systematic literature search was conducted 18/03-03/04/2023 in SPORTDiscus, ProQuest, PsycINFO, PubMed, Scopus, WorldCat, and Google Scholar. We searched for original studies that compared athletes across defined higher and lower performance levels within defined types of sports, age categories, and sexes, regarding their age at commencement of TPP involvement and reported effect sizes or data needed to compute effects sizes. Mean meta-analytic Cohen's d ¯ was computed separately for junior and senior athletes. Quality of evidence was evaluated using the mixed-methods appraisal tool.

RESULTS

The search yielded k = 51 effect sizes from N = 6233 athletes from a wide range of countries and sports, 82% male and 18% female, from 2009 to 2022. The central finding is that effects on short-term junior performance versus long-term senior performance are opposite, whereby higher-performing junior athletes began TPP involvement at younger ages than lower-performing junior athletes, d ¯ =  - 0.53. In contrast, higher-performing senior athletes began TPP involvement at older ages than lower-performing senior athletes, d ¯ = 0.56. The findings are robust across different TPPs (federation's junior squad/selection team, youth academy), individual and team sports, and performance levels compared (international, national, regional). The quality of primary studies was high.

DISCUSSION

The findings are consistent with recent meta-analytic evidence that participation patterns predicting early junior success versus long-term senior success are opposite (starting age, main-sport and other-sports practice amounts, age to reach performance 'milestones'). We discuss theoretical and practical implications of potential selection and 'treatment' effects of TPPs.

CONCLUSIONS

Consistent across different populations, early TPP involvement is positively correlated with short-term junior performance but is negatively correlated with long-term senior performance.

The effects of cognitive-motor dual-task training on athletes' cognition and motor performance

Background

Cognitive-Motor Dual Task (CMDT) training has been widely utilized in rehabilitation and sports practice. However, whether CMDT training can better enhance athletes' cognitive-motor performance compared to traditional single-task (ST) training remains unclear.

Method

A systematic review that complied with PRISMA was carried out (Prospero registration number: CRD42023443594). The electronic databases used for the systematic literature search from the beginning through 13 June 2023, included Web of Science, Embase, PubMed, and the Cochrane Library. After obtaining the initial literature, two researchers independently assessed it based on inclusion and exclusion criteria. Finally, the included literature was analyzed to compare the differences between ST training and CMDT training.

Results

After screening 2,094 articles, we included 10 acute studies and 7 chronic studies.

Conclusion

This systematic review shows that athletes typically show a degradation of performance in CMDT situations as opposed to ST when evaluated transversally. However, this performance decline is notably reduced following longitudinal training in CMDT, indicating the effectiveness of sustained CMDT training in enhancing cognitive-motor performance under dual-task conditions. Our study provides new insights into the application of CMDT in the field of sports training. Practitioners can utilize CMDT to assess athletic skill levels or optimize cognitive-motor performance of athletes, taking into account the specific needs of each sport.

Systematic review registration

https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero, identifier CRD42023443594.

Quantifying the Extent to Which Junior Performance Predicts Senior Performance in Olympic Sports: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

To what extent does junior athletic performance predict senior athletic performance (i.e., in the highest, open-age category)? This question is the subject of a lively debate in the literature. Following traditional theories of giftedness and expertise, some researchers and practitioners have proposed that a high level of junior performance is a prerequisite for the development of a high level of later senior performance. Sceptics of this view hold that junior performance has limited predictive value for later senior performance, pointing to empirical evidence indicating that predictors (e.g., participation patterns) of junior performance and of senior performance differ. The straightforward way to resolve this controversy empirically is to test the correlation between junior and senior performance.

OBJECTIVE

To provide robust and generalizable evidence on this issue, we performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of relevant studies. The aim was to quantify the overall correlation between junior and senior performance and then test whether correlations vary across junior age categories and subsamples (e.g., types of sports).

METHODS

A systematic literature search was conducted in SPORTDiscus, Eric, ProQuest, PsychInfo, PubMed, Scopus, WorldCat, and Google Scholar from 27 January through 30 April 2022. We searched for original studies that recorded athletes' junior and senior performance longitudinally and included measures of association between junior and senior performance. Quality of evidence was evaluated using the Mixed Methods Appraisal Tool version for nonrandomized studies.

RESULTS

The search yielded k = 129 effect sizes from N = 13,392 athletes from a wide range of Olympic sports, 62% male and 38% female, from 2006 to 2021. Four central findings emerged: (1) Overall, the meta-analytic pooled correlation between junior and senior performance was [Formula: see text] = 0.148. That is, junior performance explained only 2.2% of the reliable variance in senior performance. (2) The finding was robust across types of sports, sexes, wider or narrower performance ranges, national or international samples, and binary or continuous performance measures. (3) Effects varied across junior age categories: the younger the junior age category, the lower the correlation between junior and senior performance, with [Formula: see text] ranging from [Formula: see text] = - 0.052 to [Formula: see text] = 0.215. That is, across junior age categories, junior performance explained 0-4.6% of the reliable variance in senior performance. (4) The quality of primary studies was high.

DISCUSSION

The results suggest that junior performance has very little, if any, predictive value for senior performance. The findings run counter to claims from traditional theories of both giftedness and expertise. From an applied perspective, talent selection typically begins around puberty or younger-age ranges where youth performance is uncorrelated or negatively correlated with later senior performance. The evidence presented here raises serious questions about the use of junior performance for talent selection purposes. A PRISMA-P protocol was registered at https://osf.io/gck4a/ .

Unleashing potential and optimizing adolescent roller skating performance through a structured exercise program - a randomized controlled trial

BACKGROUND

The intricate nature of an athlete's abilities evolves dynamically with the enhancement of motor skills. Hence the study sought to investigate the impact of a tailored four-week exercise program`encompassing exercises focused on balance, agility, and speed. The primary objective was to determine how this exercise program influences both the roller skating talent and overall physical fitness proficiency in young male roller skaters.

METHODS

Thirty male participants (age 11-14 years) enrolled in the school skating team were recruited. The participants were randomized into either an experimental group [n = 15], performing a short-term exercise program, or a control group [n = 15], involved in the physical education classes for eight sessions over four weeks. The primary outcome measure, the skating performance, was measured by the linear speed test (LST). The secondary outcomes, i.e., balance, agility, and speed, were evaluated using the star excursion balance test (SEBT), agility t-test (ATT), and arrowhead change of direction speed test (ACDT). SEBT was assessed in 8 directions. The study was registered with the Clinical Trials Registry India (TRN: CTRI/2018/09/015713) before the recruitment of the participants on 14/09/2018.

RESULTS

The results showed that LST, ATT, and ACDT improved significantly (p < 0.05) in both groups, however, greater (p < 0.05) improvement was observed in the experimental group (Cohen's d 0.8 to 1.3). Regarding SEBT, improvement was observed in a few directions only in both groups. However, no significant difference was observed between both groups in SEBT measurements.

CONCLUSIONS

A short-term structured exercise program consisting of balance, agility, and speed exercises significantly improved the talent of skating, agility, and speed compared to physical education classes activities in young male roller skaters. The study highlights the potential of targeted training interventions to enhance athletic performance in this population.

Genetics and athletic performance: a systematic SWOT analysis of non-systematic reviews

Exercise genetics/genomics is a growing research discipline comprising several Strengths and Opportunities but also deals with Weaknesses and Threats. This "systematic SWOT overview of non-systematic reviews" (sSWOT) aimed to identify the Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats linked to exercise genetics/genomics. A systematic search was conducted in the Medline and Embase databases for non-systematic reviews to provide a comprehensive overview of the current literature/research area. The extracted data was thematically analyzed, coded, and categorized into SWOT clusters. In the 45 included reviews five Strengths, nine Weaknesses, six Opportunities, and three Threats were identified. The cluster of Strengths included "advances in technology", "empirical evidence", "growing research discipline", the "establishment of consortia", and the "acceptance/accessibility of genetic testing". The Weaknesses were linked to a "low research quality", the "complexity of exercise-related traits", "low generalizability", "high costs", "genotype scores", "reporting bias", "invasive methods", "research progress", and "causality". The Opportunities comprised of "precision exercise", "omics", "multicenter studies", as well as "genetic testing" as "commercial"-, "screening"-, and "anti-doping" detection tool. The Threats were related to "ethical issues", "direct-to-consumer genetic testing companies", and "gene doping". This overview of the present state of the art research in sport genetics/genomics indicates a field with great potential, while also drawing attention to the necessity for additional advancement in methodological and ethical guidance to mitigate the recognized Weaknesses and Threats. The recognized Strengths and Opportunities substantiate the capability of genetics/genomics to make significant contributions to the performance and wellbeing of athletes.

Tensiomyography: from muscle assessment to talent identification tool

Introduction: Tensiomyography (TMG) is a non-invasive and cost-effective tool that is gaining popularity in fields such as sports science, physical therapy, and medicine. In this narrative review, we examine the different applications of TMG and its strengths and limitations, including its use as a tool for sport talent identification and development. Methods: In the course of crafting this narrative review, an exhaustive literature search was carried out. Our exploration spanned several renowned scientific databases, such as PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science, and ResearchGate. The materials we sourced for our review included a broad spectrum of both experimental and non-experimental articles, all focusing on TMG. The experimental articles featured varied research designs including randomized controlled trials, quasi-experiments, as well as pre-post studies. As for the non-experimental articles, they encompassed a mix of case-control, cross-sectional, and cohort studies. Importantly, all articles included in our review were written in English and had been published in peer-reviewed journals. The assortment of studies considered provided a holistic view of the existing body of knowledge on TMG, and formed the basis of our comprehensive narrative review. Results: A total of 34 studies were included in the review, organized into three sections: 1) assessing muscle contractile properties of young athletes, 2) using TMG in the talent identification and development process and 3) Future research and perspectives. According to data presented here, the most consistent TMG parameters for determining muscle contractile properties are radial muscle belly displacement, contraction time, and delay time. Biopsy findings from the vastus lateralis (VL) confirmed TMG as a valid tool for estimating the ratio of myosin heavy chain (%MHC-I). Conclusion: TMGs ability to estimate the ratio of %MHC-I has the potential to aid in the selection of athletes with the muscle characteristics best suited for a particular sport, eliminating the need for more invasive procedures. However, more research is warranted to fully understand TMG's potential and its reliability when used with young athletes. Importantly, the use of TMG technology in this process can positively impact health status, reducing the frequency and severity of injuries and the duration of recovery, and subsequently can reduce drop out rates among youth athletes. Future studies should look at twin youth athletes, as a model capable of discriminating between the influence of hereditary factors vs. environmental factors, in therms of muscle contractility and TMG's potential for instance.

Application of the Motor Abilities Assessment as Part of a Talent Identification System in Tennis Players: A Pilot Study

In this study, we sought to develop a testing system to scientifically identify tennis talent. This testing system will provide helpful information for players who intend to pursue a professional tennis career. The experimental subjects were 18 college students consisting of 10 tennis players (including 4 soft tennis) and 8 basketball players (all males). The subjects were tested on their vertical jump, 60 m shuttle runs, and shoulder joint mobility to identify tennis talent. To statistically analyze the data, an R package was used to conduct a principal component analysis of the athletic performance indicators of the samples, and the samples were further classified via agglomerative hierarchical clustering. This study found that tennis players required more flexibility than basketball players. Regarding the differences between male and female soft tennis players, the unclassified results showed that there was a significant difference in explosive power. However, there was no significant difference in flexibility between genders. The research methods and results of this study can be used as a reference for others to build a system for identifying athletic performance characteristics in the future, and it is expected that the implementation of this system can provide sports coaches with more information for talent selection and improve the accuracy of their judgments, allowing athletes to play to their strengths.

The prevalence of IGF-I axis genetic polymorphisms among decathlon athletes

OBJECTIVE

Decathlon is a combined track and field competition, consisting of ten, mainly anaerobic events. Insulin-like growth factor-I (IGF1) axis plays a pivotal role in athletes' structural and functional muscle adaptation to exercise training, and in their competitive performance. Based on the great demand for speed physiological characteristics among decathlon athletes, the aim of this study was to assess the prevalence of IGF genetic polymorphisms among decathletes, to present an optimal genetic profile for enhancing performance.

METHODS

The participants included 151 male athletes and 75 male non-athletic controls from Israel and Estonia. Athletes were divided into four groups, according to the field of expertise: (a) 40 sprinters and long jumpers; (b) 40 middle distance runners; (c) 44 Weightlifters; and (d) 27 decathletes. Genomic DNA was extracted from the participants' buccal epithelial cells using standard protocol and then analyzed for IGF1 axis related genetic polymorphism using the allelic discrimination assay.

RESULTS

A significantly higher prevalence of the IGF1 rs35767 TT genotype was found among decathletes compared to the other athletes, as well as a lower prevalence of the IGF1 rs7136446 GG genotype, a higher prevalence of the IGF1R rs1464430 AA genotype, and a higher prevalence of the IGF2 rs680 GG genotype. Moreover, among the decathletes, carriers of the IGF1 rs7136446 GG genotype achieved higher decathlon scores compared to A-allele carriers.

CONCLUSIONS

The findings of this study suggest a potential beneficial role for some IGF-axis polymorphisms (mainly the IGF1 1245 TT and the IGF2 GG) among decathletes, both of which are associated with improved speed performance.

Genetics and sports performance: the present and future in the identification of talent for sports based on DNA testing

The impact of genetics on physiology and sports performance is one of the most debated research aspects in sports sciences. Nearly 200 genetic polymorphisms have been found to influence sports performance traits, and over 20 polymorphisms may condition the status of the elite athlete. However, with the current evidence, it is certainly too early a stage to determine how to use genotyping as a tool for predicting exercise/sports performance or improving current methods of training. Research on this topic presents methodological limitations such as the lack of measurement of valid exercise performance phenotypes that make the study results difficult to interpret. Additionally, many studies present an insufficient cohort of athletes, or their classification as elite is dubious, which may introduce expectancy effects. Finally, the assessment of a progressively higher number of polymorphisms in the studies and the introduction of new analysis tools, such as the total genotype score (TGS) and genome-wide association studies (GWAS), have produced a considerable advance in the power of the analyses and a change from the study of single variants to determine pathways and systems associated with performance. The purpose of the present study was to comprehensively review evidence on the impact of genetics on endurance- and power-based exercise performance to clearly determine the potential utility of genotyping for detecting sports talent, enhancing training, or preventing exercise-related injuries, and to present an overview of recent research that has attempted to correct the methodological issues found in previous investigations.

Bounded Rationality and Heuristics: Do We Only Need to Score in Order to Win Individual Awards in Basketball?

In the game of basketball game-related statistics are utilised to help decision makers to evaluate players’ achievements. Previous research showed that in the case of individual awards, points are preferred over other indicators of effectiveness. Based on recent studies and following Simon’s bounded rationality, in our interpretation, decision-makers decide on nominations at the post-grant level according to points scoring which is the easiest aspect to assess and the most familiar to them. In this context we also hypothesise that youth all-star players have better overall performance than their not selected teammates. To test our hypotheses we selected all of the youth awarded male players and their teammates from 2004 to 2019. In our sample, we examined n = 3198 player statistics. Two groups were created with nominated and not selected players. We used a two-sample t-test, and correlation matrix to examine the relationship between the variables (p < 0.001). We found that scoring is the most important selection criteria for decision-makers (r = 0.605; p = 0.000) and the selected players had significantly better individual statistics. An important finding of our study is that although efficiency (EFF) is used to measure the players’ contribution to the game, it is not the primary selection factor and should therefore be redefined.

Prediction and Identification of Power Performance Using Polygenic Models of Three Single-Nucleotide Polymorphisms in Chinese Elite Athletes

Objective: The manuscript aims to explore the relationship between power performance and SNPs of Chinese elite athletes and to create polygenic models.

Methods: One hundred three Chinese elite athletes were divided into the power group (n = 60) and endurance group (n = 43) by their sports event. Best standing long jump (SLJ) and standing vertical jump (SVJ) were collected. Twenty SNPs were genotyped by SNaPshot. Genotype distribution and allele frequency were compared between groups. Additional genotype data of 125 Chinese elite athletes were used to verify the screened SNPs. Predictive and identifying models were established by multivariate logistic regression analysis.

Results: ACTN3 (rs1815739), ADRB3 (rs4994), CNTFR (rs2070802), and PPARGC1A (rs8192678) were significantly different in genotype distribution or allele frequency between groups (p < 0.05). The predictive model consisted of ACTN3 (rs1815739), ADRB3 (rs4994), and PPARGC1A (rs8192678), the area under curve (AUC) of which was 0.736. The identifying model consisted of body mass index (BMI), standing vertical jump (SVJ), ACTN3, ADRB3, and PPARGC1A, the area under curve (AUC) of which was 0.854. Based on the two models, nomograms were created to visualize the results.

Conclusion: Two models can be used for talent identification in Chinese athletes, among which the predictive model can be used in adolescent athletes to predict development potential of power performance and the identifying one can be used in elite athletes to evaluate power athletic status. These can be applied quickly and visually by using nomograms. When the score is more than the 130 or 148 cutoff, it suggests that the athlete has a good development potential or a high level for power performance.

Analysis of circular economy of E-commerce market based on grey model under the background of big data

Purpose

In order to more accurately predict the dynamics of the e-commerce market and increase the comprehensive value of the circular e-commerce industry, proposes to use Grey system theory to analyze the circular economy of the e-commerce market.

Design/methodology/approach

Construct a Grey system theory model, analyze the big data of e-commerce and circular economy of the e-commerce market and predict the development potential of China's e-commerce market.

Findings

The results show that the Grey system theory model can play an important role in the data analysis of circular economy of the e-commerce market.

Originality/value

Use Grey model to analyze e-commerce data, discover e-commerce market rules and problems and then optimize e-commerce market.

Troubleshooting a Nonresponder: Guidance for the Strength and Conditioning Coach

Ideally an athlete would continue to improve performance indefinitely over time, however improvement slows as the athlete approaches their genetic limits. Measuring performance is complex—performance may be temporarily depressed following aggressive training for multiple reasons, physiological and psychosocial. This reality may be vexing to the strength and conditioning coach, who, as a service provider, must answer to sport coaches about an athlete’s progress. Recently an evaluation mechanism for strength and conditioning coaches was proposed, in part to help coaches establish their effectiveness within the organization. Without formal guidance and realistic expectations, if an athlete is not bigger, leaner, stronger, etc. as a result of training within a specified timeframe, blame is often placed upon the strength and conditioning coach. The purpose of this article is to explore possible causes of what may be perceived as athlete non-responses to training and to provide guidance for the coach on how to handle those issues within their domain. A process of investigation is recommended, along with resources to assist coaches as they consider a broad range of issues, including enhancing existing testing methods, improving athlete behaviors, and adjusting processes designed to bring about performance improvement.

Are Soccer and Futsal Affected by the Relative Age Effect? The Portuguese Football Association Case

A better understanding of the relative age effect (RAE) in youth will increase the awareness of the need for reducing the bias of (de)selection. Thus, we investigated the RAE in youth female and male soccer and futsal players in Portugal, using nationwide data. Birthdates of 5,306 female and 126,285 male soccer players, and 2,437 female and 23,988 male futsal players (U7–U19), registered in Portugal during the season 2019–2020, and Portuguese National teams (from U15 to AA soccer teams and from U17 to AA futsal teams) were analyzed. Data were categorized into age groups and certification levels [no certification, basic football training center, football school, and training institution] of the respective clubs/academies. Birthdates were stratified from the start of the selection year using quartiles (Q) and semesters (S). Differences between the observed and expected birthdate distributions were analyzed using chi-square statistics, and RAEs were calculated using odds ratios (OR). In both soccer and futsal, female players, in the age category U9, RAEs were found (Q1 vs. Q4, OR: 1.49 and 1.84, respectively). In male soccer, differences in the birthdate distribution were observed in all age categories (U7–U19) with significant OR between all comparisons (Q and S). In contrast, an over-representation of young male futsal players (Q1 vs. Q4) was observed only in the age categories U7 and U9 (OR: 1.54 and 1.34, respectively). The stratification by certification level showed a significant RAE for all certification levels in male soccer players. In contrast, in male futsal players, the RAE was significant only in clubs and academies with the highest level. For National teams, the RAE was more pronounced in male soccer, particularly in the U16 and U17 (OR: 9.84 and 12.36, respectively). Data showed a RAE in female and male youth soccer and futsal, particularly in male, younger age categories, and in clubs and academies having a higher certification level, which could be accompanied by a loss of valuable elite players during the youth phase of their careers. Thus, adjustments in the systems and structure of talent identification are recommended to prevent RAE-related discrimination in youth soccer and futsal.

Nationwide Subjective and Objective Assessments of Potential Talent Predictors in Elite Youth Soccer: An Investigation of Prognostic Validity in a Prospective Study

Recent studies have provided empirical evidence on the prognostic relevance of objective performance diagnostics in the soccer talent identification and development process. However, little is known about the prognostic validity of coaches' subjective evaluations of performance. This study evaluated objective and subjective assessments within a nationwide talent development program and addressed motor, perceptual skill, and personality-related performance factors. Male players (N = 13,869; M_age = 12.59 ± 1.07 years) from the age groups U12 to U15 of the German soccer talent development program participated in this study. Participants completed an objective motor diagnostic (sprint, agility, dribbling, ball control, juggling) and were subjectively rated by their coaches (kicking skills, endurance, individual tactical skills, psychosocial skills). All nine predictors were assessed with sufficient psychometric properties (α ≥ 0.72; except dribbling and ball control: α ≥ 0.53). Players' success three seasons later was operationalized by achieving professional youth academy level or not (success rate, 9%). Independent-samples t-tests analyzed univariate mean group comparisons between future selected and non-selected players. Logistic regression models examined the multivariate prognostic validity of all assessments by predicting success with subjective (model 1), objective (model 2), and both groups of predictors (model 3). Confirming the univariate prognostic validity, future selected outperformed non-selected players regarding all predictors (each p < 0.001, except for agility in U15: p < 0.01). Tactical skills, kicking skills, and sprint were of highest predictive value (d ≥ 0.61 in each age group). Multivariate results provided empirical evidence for the subjective (7% ≤ Nagelkerke's R² ≤ 11%; each p < 0.001) and objective (8% ≤ Nagelkerke's R² ≤ 13%; each p < 0.001) assessments' prognostic validity. However, model 3 revealed the best statistical explanatory power in each age group (0.15 ≤ Nagelkerke's R² ≤ 0.20; p < 0.001). In this combined assessment model, sprint, tactical skills, and dribbling were found to be the most predictive variables. In conclusion, this study reinforces the call for multidimensional diagnostics integrating objective and subjective assessments. Future research is needed to address the demands for longitudinal analyses of subjective ratings, the integration of biological maturation, and empirical evidence for female soccer.

Talent Development in Sport Requires Athlete Enrichment: Contemporary Insights from a Nonlinear Pedagogy and the Athletic Skills Model

Traditional talent identification and development programs have sought to identify and select the most promising children as athletes of the future, to provide them with specialised training and preparation for expert performance in sport from an early age. Traditional models of talent identification and development tend to be linear, emphasising the numbers of hours spent in specialised training. However, major concerns have been raised by evidence emerging on psycho-emotional and physical issues with early specialisation programmes, and negative associations with wellbeing and mental health. More contemporary models of talent development emphasise a deep integration of specialised training with more general enrichment of athleticism. This integrative process enhances self-regulation processes of perception and action, as well as emotional control and social interactions, all of which underpin sports performance at elite and sub-elite levels. Here, we discuss insights and principles of contemporary models of pedagogy, such as Nonlinear Pedagogy (NLP) and the Athletic Skills Model (ASM), which offer valuable frameworks for talent development. We conclude by considering implications of adopting such principles for developing athlete functionality in specific performance environments.

Sport and Enhancement in the Age of Human Rights: Genetic Testing as a Case Study

The paper focuses on the ethical–legal implications of a specific area of scientific and technological progress for the recognition of sport as a human right, which is the field of genetic advances with regard to application of genetic testing for non-medical purposes, and in particular for talent identification (genetic talent identification). As with most biomedical innovations, this use of genetic tests has both constructive and more ethical–legal problematic implications. The attempt made by this paper is to highlight controversial implications of genetic talent identification tests for the recognition of sport as human right.

Competition-Based Success Factors During the Talent Pathway of Elite Male Swimmers

Marginal differences in race results between top swimmers have evoked the interest in competition-based success factors of long-term athlete development. To identify novel factors for the multi-dimensional model of talent development, the aim of the study was to investigate annual variation in competition performance (ACV), number of races per year, and age. Therefore, 45,398 race results of all male participants (n = 353) competing in individual events, i.e., butterfly, backstroke, breaststroke, freestyle, and individual medley, at the 2018 European Long-Course Swimming Championships (2018EC) were analyzed retrospectively for all 10 years prior to the championships with Pearson's correlation coefficient and multiple linear regression analysis. Higher ranked swimmers at the 2018EC showed significant medium correlations with a greater number of races per year and small but significant correlations with higher ACV in 10 and nine consecutive years, respectively, prior to the championships. Additionally, better swimmers were older than their lower ranked peers (r = −0.21, p < 0.001). Regression model explained a significant proportion of 2018EC ranking for 50 m (47%), 100 m (45%), 200 m (31%), and 400 m races (29%) but not for 800 and 1,500 m races with number of races having the largest effect followed by age and ACV. In conclusion, higher performance variation with results off the personal best in some races did not impair success at the season's main event and young competitors at international championships may benefit from success chances that increase with age. The higher number of races swum per year throughout the career of higher ranked swimmers may have provided learning opportunities and specific adaptations. Future studies should quantify these success factors in a multi-dimensional talent development model.

The validity of small-sided games in predicting 11-vs-11 soccer game performance

Predicting performance in soccer games has been a major focus within talent identification and development. Past research has mainly used performance levels, such as elite vs. non-elite players, as the performance to predict (i.e. the criterion). Moreover, these studies have mainly focused on isolated performance attributes as predictors of soccer performance levels. However, there has been an increasing interest in finer grained criterion measures of soccer performance, as well as representative assessments at the level of performance predictors. In this study, we first determined the degree to which 7-vs-7 small-sided games can be considered as representative of 11-vs-11 games. Second, we assessed the validity of individual players’ small-sided game performance in predicting their 11-vs-11 game performance on a continuous scale. Moreover, we explored the predictive validity for 11-vs-11 game performance of several physiological and motor tests in isolation. Sixty-three elite youth players of a professional soccer academy participated in 11 to 17 small-sided games and six 11-vs-11 soccer games. In-game performance indicators were assessed through notational analysis and combined into an overall offensive and defensive performance measure, based on their relationship with game success. Physiological and motor abilities were assessed using a sprint, endurance, and agility test. Results showed that the small-sided games were faster paced, but representative of 11-vs-11 games, with the exception of aerial duels. Furthermore, individual small-sided game performance yielded moderate predictive validities with 11-vs-11 game performance. In contrast, the physiological and motor tests yielded small to trivial relations with game performance. Altogether, this study provides novel insights into the application of representative soccer assessments and the use of continuous criterion measures of soccer performance.

Methodological Issues in Soccer Talent Identification Research

Talent identification research in soccer comprises the prediction of elite soccer performance. While many studies in this field have aimed to empirically relate performance characteristics to subsequent soccer success, a critical evaluation of the methodology of these studies has mostly been absent in the literature. In this position paper, we discuss advantages and limitations of the design, validity, and utility of current soccer talent identification research. Specifically, we draw on principles from selection psychology that can contribute to best practices in the context of making selection decisions across domains. Based on an extensive search of the soccer literature, we identify four methodological issues from this framework that are relevant for talent identification research, i.e. (1) the operationalization of criterion variables (the performance to be predicted) as performance levels; (2) the focus on isolated performance indicators as predictors of soccer performance; (3) the effects of range restriction on the predictive validity of predictors used in talent identification; and (4) the effect of the base rate on the utility of talent identification procedures. Based on these four issues, we highlight opportunities and challenges for future soccer talent identification studies that may contribute to developing evidence-based selection procedures. We suggest for future research to consider the use of individual soccer criterion measures, to adopt representative, high-fidelity predictors of soccer performance, and to take restriction of range and the base rate into account.

Waste Reduction Strategies: Factors Affecting Talent Wastage and the Efficacy of Talent Selection in Sport

Coaches are faced with the difficult task of identifying and selecting athletes to their team. Despite its widespread practice in sport, there is still much to learn about improving the identification and selection process. Evidence to date suggests selection decisions (at different competitive levels) can be inaccurate, bias driven, and sometimes even illogical. These mistakes are believed to contribute to "talent wastage," the effect of a coach's wrongful selection and/or deselection of an athlete to/from a team. Errors of this scale can lead to negative repercussions for all stakeholders involved and therefore deserve further exploration. It is the purpose of this paper to shed light on the potential factors influencing talent wastage and to illuminate possible psychological pitfalls when making decisions under uncertainty.

Can Genetic Testing Identify Talent for Sport?

Elite athlete status is a partially heritable trait, as are many of the underpinning physiological, anthropometrical, and psychological traits that contribute to elite performance. In recent years, our understanding of the specific genetic variants that contribute to these traits has grown, such that there is considerable interest in attempting to utilise genetic information as a tool to predict future elite athlete status. In this review, we explore the extent of the genetic influence on the making of a sporting champion and we describe issues which, at present, hamper the utility of genetic testing in identifying future elite performers. We build on this by exploring what further knowledge is required to enhance this process, including a reflection on the potential learnings from the use of genetics as a disease prediction tool. Finally, we discuss ways in which genetic information may hold utility within elite sport in the future, including guiding nutritional and training recommendations, and assisting in the prevention of injury. Whilst genetic testing has the potential to assist in the identification of future talented performers, genetic tests should be combined with other tools to obtain an accurate identification of those athletes predisposed to succeed in sport. The use of total genotype scores, composed of a high number of performance-enhancing polymorphisms, will likely be one of the best strategies in the utilisation of genetic information to identify talent in sport.

High-intensity endurance capacity assessment as a tool for talent identification in elite youth female soccer

Talent identification and development programmes have received broad attention in the last decades, yet evidence regarding the predictive utility of physical performance in female soccer players is limited. Using a retrospective design, we appraised the predictive value of performance-related measures in a sample of 228 youth female soccer players previously involved in residential Elite Performance Camps (age range: 12.7-15.3 years). With 10-m sprinting, 30-m sprinting, counter-movement jump height, and Yo-Yo Intermittent Recovery Test Level 1 (IR1) distance as primary predictor variables, the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) assessed the relative quality of four penalised logistic regression models for determining future competitive international squads U17-U20 level selection. The model including Yo-Yo IR1 was the best for predicting career outcome. Predicted probabilities of future selection to the international squad increased with higher Yo-Yo IR1 distances, from 4.5% (95% confidence interval, 0.8 to 8.2%) for a distance lower than 440 m to 64.7% (95% confidence interval, 47.3 to 82.1%) for a score of 2040 m. The present study highlights the predictive utility of high-intensity endurance capacity for informing career progression in elite youth female soccer and provides reference values for staff involved in the talent development of elite youth female soccer players.

Talent Identification in Sport: A Systematic Review

BACKGROUND

Talent identification (TID) programs are an integral part of the selection process for elite-level athletes. While many sport organizations utilize TID programs, there does not seem to be a clear set of variables that consistently predict future success.

OBJECTIVE

This review aims to synthesize longitudinal and retrospective studies examining differences between performance variables in highly skilled and less-skilled athletes in elite-level sport.

METHODS

The Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines were used to identify relevant studies (N = 20).

RESULTS

There was a clear overrepresentation of studies that (1) examined physical profiles of athletes (60%); (2) focused on male samples (65%); (3) examined athletes between the ages of 10 and 20 years (60%); and (4) were published between the years 2010 and 2015 (65%). On closer examination, there was a high degree of variability in the factors that were found to discriminate between skilled and less-skilled individuals.

CONCLUSION

Findings from this review highlight how little is known about TID in elite sport and emphasize the need for greater diversity in TID research.

Elite national athletes reach their peak performance later than non-elite in sprints and throwing events

OBJECTIVES

The aim of this study was to describe and analyse the performance career trajectories for Italian athletes that participated in sprint, hurdles, discus throw, and shot-put athletics events.

DESIGN

Retrospective study, data collected between 1994 and 2014.

METHODS

A total of 5929 athletes (female: n=2977, 50.2%) were included in the study. The age of entering competition and personal best performance was identified in the official competition records. Personal best performances were ranked in percentiles and top-level athletes were considered those in the highest 4% of the performance distribution.

RESULTS

Overall, when controlling for the age of entering competition, top-level athletes reached their personal best later (i.e., around 23-25 years old) for all events compared to the rest of the athletes. Moreover, regression analysis showed that entering competitions later was linked to better performances during adulthood. Also, only 17%-26% [90% CI] of the top-level adult athletes were considered as such when they were 14-17 years old.

CONCLUSIONS

Together, these findings suggest that early sport success is not a strong predictor of top-level performance at senior level. Entering sport-specific competitions later and lengthening the sports career at beyond 23-25 years of age may be important factors to reach top-level performance in sprint and throwing events.

Career Performance Trajectories in Track and Field Jumping Events from Youth to Senior Success: The Importance of Learning and Development

INTRODUCTION

The idea that early sport success can be detrimental for long-term sport performance is still under debate. Therefore, the aims of this study were to examine the career trajectories of Italian high and long jumpers to provide a better understanding of performance development in jumping events.

METHODS

The official long-jump and high-jump rankings of the Italian Track and Field Federation were collected from the age of 12 to career termination, for both genders from the year 1994 to 2014. Top-level athletes were identified as those with a percentile of their personal best performance between 97 and 100.

RESULTS

The age of entering competitions of top-level athletes was not different than the rest of the athletic population, whereas top-level athletes performed their personal best later than the rest of the athletes. Top-level athletes showed an overall higher rate of improvement in performance from the age of 13 to the age of 18 years when compared to all other individuals. Only 10-25% of the top-level adult athletes were top-level at the age of 16. Around 60% of the top-level young at the age of 16 did not maintain the same level of performance in adulthood. Female high-jump represented an exception from this trend since in this group most top-level young become top-level adult athletes.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings suggest that performance before the age of 16 is not a good predictor of adult performance in long and high jump. The annual rate of improvements from 13 to 18 years should be included as a predictor of success rather than performance per se. Coaches should be careful about predicting future success based on performances obtained during youth in jumping events.

The Great British Medalists Project: A Review of Current Knowledge on the Development of the World's Best Sporting Talent

The literature base regarding the development of sporting talent is extensive, and includes empirical articles, reviews, position papers, academic books, governing body documents, popular books, unpublished theses and anecdotal evidence, and contains numerous models of talent development. With such a varied body of work, the task for researchers, practitioners and policy makers of generating a clear understanding of what is known and what is thought to be true regarding the development of sporting talent is particularly challenging. Drawing on a wide array of expertise, we address this challenge by avoiding adherence to any specific model or area and by providing a reasoned review across three key overarching topics: (a) the performer; (b) the environment; and (c) practice and training. Within each topic sub-section, we review and calibrate evidence by performance level of the samples. We then conclude each sub-section with a brief summary, a rating of the quality of evidence, a recommendation for practice and suggestions for future research. These serve to highlight both our current level of understanding and our level of confidence in providing practice recommendations, but also point to a need for future studies that could offer evidence regarding the complex interactions that almost certainly exist across domains.

Identifying Talent in Youth Sport: A Novel Methodology Using Higher-Dimensional Analysis

Prediction of adult performance from early age talent identification in sport remains difficult. Talent identification research has generally been performed using univariate analysis, which ignores multivariate relationships. To address this issue, this study used a novel higher-dimensional model to orthogonalize multivariate anthropometric and fitness data from junior rugby league players, with the aim of differentiating future career attainment. Anthropometric and fitness data from 257 Under-15 rugby league players was collected. Players were grouped retrospectively according to their future career attainment (i.e., amateur, academy, professional). Players were blindly and randomly divided into an exploratory (n = 165) and validation dataset (n = 92). The exploratory dataset was used to develop and optimize a novel higher-dimensional model, which combined singular value decomposition (SVD) with receiver operating characteristic analysis. Once optimized, the model was tested using the validation dataset. SVD analysis revealed 60 m sprint and agility 505 performance were the most influential characteristics in distinguishing future professional players from amateur and academy players. The exploratory dataset model was able to distinguish between future amateur and professional players with a high degree of accuracy (sensitivity = 85.7%, specificity = 71.1%; p<0.001), although it could not distinguish between future professional and academy players. The validation dataset model was able to distinguish future professionals from the rest with reasonable accuracy (sensitivity = 83.3%, specificity = 63.8%; p = 0.003). Through the use of SVD analysis it was possible to objectively identify criteria to distinguish future career attainment with a sensitivity over 80% using anthropometric and fitness data alone. As such, this suggests that SVD analysis may be a useful analysis tool for research and practice within talent identification.

Ethics, genetic testing, and athletic talent: children's best interests, and the right to an open (athletic) future

In this paper we discuss the ethics of genetics-based talent identification programs in sports. We discuss the validity and reliability of the tests and the claims made by direct to consumer companies, before presenting a range of ethical issues concerning child-parent/guardian relations raised by these tests, which we frame in terms of parental/guardian duties, children's rights, and best interests. We argue that greater ethical emphasis needs to be put on the parental decision on the wellbeing on the child going forward, not on ex post justifications on the basis of good and bad consequences. Best interests decisions made by a third party seem to comprise both subjective and objective elements, but only a holistic approach can do justice to these questions by addressing the wellbeing of the child in a temporal manner and taking into account the child's perspective on its wellbeing. Such decisions must address wider questions of what a good (sports)parent ought do to help the child flourish and how to balance the future-adult focus necessary to nurture talent with the wellbeing of the child in the present. We conclude that current genetic tests for "talent" do not predict aptitude or success to any significant degree and are therefore only marginally pertinent for talent identification. Claims that go beyond current science are culpable and attempt to exploit widespread but naïve perceptions of the efficacy of genetics information to predict athletic futures. Sports physicians and health care professionals involved in sport medicine should therefore discourage the use of these tests.