Immortal Time Bias in Epidemiology

Head Injury and Risk of Incident Ischemic Stroke in Community-Dwelling Adults

BACKGROUND

While stroke is a recognized short-term sequela of traumatic brain injury, evidence about long-term ischemic stroke risk after traumatic brain injury remains limited.

METHODS

The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study is an ongoing prospective cohort comprised of US community-dwelling adults enrolled in 1987 to 1989 followed through 2019. Head injury was defined using self-report and hospital-based diagnostic codes and was analyzed as a time-varying exposure. Incident ischemic stroke events were physician-adjudicated. We used Cox regression adjusted for sociodemographic and cardiovascular risk factors to estimate the hazard of ischemic stroke as a function of head injury. Secondary analyses explored the number and severity of head injuries; the mechanism and severity of incident ischemic stroke; and heterogeneity within subgroups defined by race, sex, and age.

RESULTS

Our analysis included 12 813 participants with no prior head injury or stroke. The median follow-up age was 27.1 years (25th-75th percentile=21.1-30.5). Participants were of median age 54 years (25th-75th percentile=49-59) at baseline; 57.7% were female and 27.8% were Black. There were 2158 (16.8%) participants with at least 1 head injury and 1141 (8.9%) participants with an incident ischemic stroke during follow-up. For those with head injuries, the median age to ischemic stroke was 7.5 years (25th-75th percentile=2.2-14.0). In adjusted models, head injury was associated with an increased hazard of incident ischemic stroke (hazard ratio [HR], 1.34 [95% CI, 1.12-1.60]). We observed evidence of dose-response for the number of head injuries (1: HR, 1.16 [95% CI, 0.97-1.40]; ≥2: HR, 1.94 [95% CI, 1.39-2.71]) but not for injury severity. We observed evidence of stronger associations between head injury and more severe stroke (National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score ≤5: HR, 1.31 [95% CI, 1.04-1.64]; National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score 6-10: HR, 1.64 [95% CI, 1.06-2.52]; National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score ≥11: HR, 1.80 [95% CI, 1.18-2.76]). Results were similar across stroke mechanism and within strata of race, sex, and age.

CONCLUSIONS

In this community-based cohort, head injury was associated with subsequent ischemic stroke. These results suggest the importance of public health interventions aimed at preventing head injuries and primary stroke prevention among individuals with prior traumatic brain injuries.

Safety of influenza vaccination during pregnancy: a systematic review

OBJECTIVE

We conducted a systematic review to evaluate associations between influenza vaccination during pregnancy and adverse birth outcomes and maternal non-obstetric serious adverse events (SAEs), taking into consideration confounding and temporal biases.

METHODS

Electronic databases (Ovid MEDLINE ALL, Embase Classic+Embase and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials) were searched to June 2021 for observational studies assessing associations between influenza vaccination during pregnancy and maternal non-obstetric SAEs and adverse birth outcomes, including preterm birth, spontaneous abortion, stillbirth, small-for-gestational-age birth and congenital anomalies. Studies of live attenuated vaccines, single-arm cohort studies and abstract-only publications were excluded. Records were screened using a liberal accelerated approach initially, followed by a dual independent approach for full-text screening, data extraction and risk of bias assessment. Pairwise meta-analyses were conducted, where two or more studies met methodological criteria for inclusion. The Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development and Evaluation approach was used to assess evidence certainty.

RESULTS

Of 9443 records screened, 63 studies were included. Twenty-nine studies (24 cohort and 5 case-control) evaluated seasonal influenza vaccination (trivalent and/or quadrivalent) versus no vaccination and were the focus of our prioritised syntheses; 34 studies of pandemic vaccines (2009 A/H1N1 and others), combinations of pandemic and seasonal vaccines, and seasonal versus seasonal vaccines were also reviewed. Control for confounding and temporal biases was inconsistent across studies, limiting pooling of data. Meta-analyses for preterm birth, spontaneous abortion and small-for-gestational-age birth demonstrated no significant associations with seasonal influenza vaccination. Immortal time bias was observed in a sensitivity analysis of meta-analysing risk-based preterm birth data. In descriptive summaries for stillbirth, congenital anomalies and maternal non-obstetric SAEs, no significant association with increased risk was found in any studies. All evidence was of very low certainty.

CONCLUSIONS

Evidence of very low certainty suggests that seasonal influenza vaccination during pregnancy is not associated with adverse birth outcomes or maternal non-obstetric SAEs. Appropriate control of confounding and temporal biases in future studies would improve the evidence base.

Tell me what you want, what you really really want: Estimands in observational pharmacoepidemiologic comparative effectiveness and safety studies

PURPOSE

Ideally, the objectives of a pharmacoepidemiologic comparative effectiveness or safety study should dictate its design and data analysis. This paper discusses how defining an estimand is instrumental to this process.

METHODS

We applied the ICH-E9 (Statistical Principles for Clinical Trials) R1 addendum on estimands - which originally focused on randomized trials - to three examples of observational pharmacoepidemiologic comparative effectiveness and safety studies. Five key elements specify the estimand: the population, contrasted treatments, endpoint, intercurrent events, and population-level summary measure.

RESULTS

Different estimands were defined for case studies representing three types of pharmacological treatments: (1) single-dose treatments using a case study about the effect of influenza vaccination versus no vaccination on mortality risk in an adult population of ≥60 years of age; (2) sustained-treatments using a case study about the effect of dipeptidyl peptidase 4 inhibitor versus glucagon-like peptide-1 agonist on hypoglycemia risk in treatment of uncontrolled diabetes; and (3) as needed treatments using a case study on the effect of nitroglycerin spray as-needed versus no nitroglycerin on syncope risk in treatment of stabile angina pectoris.

CONCLUSIONS

The case studies illustrated that a seemingly clear research question can still be open to multiple interpretations. Defining an estimand ensures that the study targets a treatment effect that aligns with the treatment decision the study aims to inform. Estimand definitions further help to inform choices regarding study design and data-analysis and clarify how to interpret study findings.

Tdap vaccination during pregnancy and risk of chorioamnionitis and related infant outcomes

INTRODUCTION

An increased risk of chorioamnionitis in people receiving tetanus toxoid, reduced diphtheria toxoid, and acellular pertussis (Tdap) vaccine during pregnancy has been reported. The importance of this association is unclear as additional study has not demonstrated increased adverse infant outcomes associated with Tdap vaccination in pregnancy.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective observational cohort study of pregnant people ages 15-49 years with singleton pregnancies ending in live birth who were members of 8 Vaccine Safety Datalink (VSD) sites during October 2016-September 2018. We used a time-dependent covariate Cox model with stabilized inverse probability weights applied to evaluate associations between Tdap vaccination during pregnancy and chorioamnionitis and preterm birth outcomes. We used Poisson regression with robust variance with stabilized inverse probability weights applied to evaluate the association of Tdap vaccination with adverse infant outcomes. We performed medical record reviews on a random sample of patients with ICD-10-CM-diagnosed chorioamnionitis to determine positive predictive values (PPV) of coded chorioamnionitisfor "probable clinical chorioamnionitis," "possible clinical chorioamnionitis," or "histologic chorioamnionitis."

RESULTS

We included 118,211 pregnant people; 103,258 (87%) received Tdap vaccine during pregnancy; 8098 (7%) were diagnosed with chorioamnionitis. The adjusted hazard ratio for chorioamnionitis in the Tdap vaccine-exposed group compared to unexposed was 0.96 (95% CI 0.90-1.03). There was no association between Tdap vaccine and preterm birth or adverse infant outcomes associated with chorioamnionitis. Chart reviews were performed for 528 pregnant people with chorioamnionitis. The PPV for clinical (probable or possible clinical chorioamnionitis) was 48% and 59% for histologic chorioamnionitis. The PPV for the combined outcome of clinical or histologic chorioamnionitis was 81%.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

Tdap vaccine exposure during pregnancy was not associated with chorioamnionitis, preterm birth, or adverse infant outcomes. ICD-10 codes for chorioamnionitis lack specificity for clinical chorioamnionitis and should be a recognized limitation when interpreting results.

Ondansetron: recommended antiemetics for patients with acute pancreatitis? a population-based study

Objective: Ondansetron administration is a common antemetic of acute pancreatitis therapy in the intensive care unit (ICU), but its actual association with patients' outcomes has not been confirmed. The study is aimed to determine whether the multiple outcomes of ICU patients with acute pancreatitis could benefit from ondansetron. Methods: 1,030 acute pancreatitis patients diagnosed in 2008-2019 were extracted from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC)-IV database as our study cohort. The primary outcome we considered is the 90-day prognosis, and secondary outcomes included in-hospital survival and overall prognosis. Results: In MIMIC-IV, 663 acute pancreatitis patients received ondansetron administration (OND group) during their hospitalization, while 367 patients did not (non-OND group). Patients in the OND group presented better in-hospital, 90-day, and overall survival curves than the non-OND group (log-rank test: in-hospital: p < 0.001, 90-day: p = 0.002, overall: p = 0.009). After including covariates, ondansetron was associated with better survival in patients with multiple outcomes (in-hospital: HR = 0.50, 90-day: HR = 0.63, overall: HR = 0.66), and the optimal dose inflection points were 7.8 mg, 4.9 mg, and 4.6 mg, respectively. The survival benefit of ondansetron was unique and stable in the multivariate analyses after consideration of metoclopramide, diphenhydramine, and prochlorperazine, which may also be used as antiemetics. Conclusion: In ICU acute pancreatitis patients, ondansetron administration was associated with better 90-day outcomes, while results were similar in terms of in-hospital and overall outcomes, and the recommended minimum total dose might be suggested to be 4-8 mg.

Emulating Target Trials to Avoid Immortal Time Bias - An Application to Antibiotic Initiation and Preterm Delivery

BACKGROUND

Randomized trials in pregnancy are extremely challenging, and observational studies are often the only option to evaluate medication safety during pregnancy. However, such studies are often susceptible to immortal time bias if treatment initiation occurs after time zero of follow-up. We describe how emulating a sequence of target trials avoids immortal time bias and apply the approach to estimate the safety of antibiotic initiation between 24 and 37 weeks gestation on preterm delivery.

METHODS

The Tsepamo Study captured birth outcomes at hospitals throughout Botswana from 2014 to 2021. We emulated 13 sequential target trials of antibiotic initiation versus no initiation among individuals presenting to care <24 weeks, one for each week from 24 to 37 weeks. For each trial, eligible individuals had not previously initiated antibiotics. We also conducted an analysis susceptible to immortal time bias by defining time zero as 24 weeks and exposure as antibiotic initiation between 24 and 37 weeks. We calculated adjusted risk ratios (RR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for preterm delivery.

RESULTS

Of 111,403 eligible individuals, 17,009 (15.3%) initiated antibiotics between 24 and 37 weeks. In the sequence of target trials, RRs (95% CIs) ranged from 1.04 (0.90, 1.19) to 1.24 (1.11, 1.39) (pooled RR: 1.11 [1.06, 1.15]). In the analysis susceptible to immortal time bias, the RR was 0.90 (0.86, 0.94).

CONCLUSIONS

Defining exposure as antibiotic initiation at any time during follow-up after time zero resulted in substantial immortal time bias, making antibiotics appear protective against preterm delivery. Conducting a sequence of target trials can avoid immortal time bias in pregnancy studies.

Metanalyses on metformin's role in pancreatic cancer suffer from severe bias and low data quality - An umbrella review

AIMS

Discrepancies in the preclinical evidence, retrospective studies, and randomized trials evaluating metformin's role in pancreatic cancer are difficult to disentangle. We aimed to critically and systematically examine the quality and sources of heterogeneity between meta-analyses investigating the association between metformin intake and the prognosis of patients with pancreatic cancer.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We performed a literature search on PubMed, MEDLINE, Embase, and Scopus on October 31, 2021 to identify meta-analyses investigating the impact of metformin treatment on the prognosis of patients with pancreatic cancer. Meta-analyses quality was assessed using according to the AMSTAR 2 criteria. We assessed bias in individual studies included in the meta-analyses, with particular attention to immortal time bias and quality of reporting.

RESULTS

Eleven meta-analyses describing 24 individual studies were included. All meta-analyses were rated low (n = 5) or critically low (n = 6) quality. Only 4 followed PRISMA reporting guidelines and only in 5 presented data were sufficient to replicate the analyses. Most meta-analyses combined results from clinical trials and retrospective studies (n = 6); patients with different cancer stages (resectable vs advanced) and from studies with different control group definitions. Immortal time bias was present and not accounted for in most (65.2%) of the individual retrospective studies; almost all (n = 9) meta-analyses failed to identify and correct for this source of bias.

CONCLUSIONS

Meta-analyses describing the association of metformin use in patients with pancreatic cancer are plagued by various types of bias inherent in retrospective studies. The quality of evidence linking metformin to decreased pancreatic cancer mortality is generally low.

A Retrospective Evaluation of the Impacts of a Multidisciplinary Care Model for Managing Patients with Advanced Illness on Acute Care Utilization and Quality of Care at End of Life

Background: A home-based goal-concordant care model targeting patients with advanced illnesses may reduce acute care utilization and improve quality outcomes at end of life. Aim: Study aim was to determine impact of the Advanced Illness Management (AIM) program on end-of-life utilization and quality of care. Design: A retrospective observational study design using propensity score fine stratum weighting methodologies was applied to decedent patients identified for AIM enrollment/eligibility in 2018 to 2019. Setting/Participants: A total of 3859 decedents, 216 of whom were AIM enrollees, were identified from a metropolitan health system's electronic medical records (EMR) and met study eligibility criteria. Results: Compared with usual care, AIM enrollees spent more days away from acute care in the last 30, 90, and 180 days of life. Furthermore, AIM enrollees were less likely to expire in an acute care hospital. Conclusions: Enrollment in programs such as AIM should be considered for patients with advanced illnesses approaching end of life.

Associations Between Late-Onset Preeclampsia and the Use of Calcium-Based Antacids and Proton Pump Inhibitors During Pregnancy: A Prospective Cohort Study

Purpose

Preeclampsia is a leading cause of maternal morbidity and mortality. Calcium-based antacids and proton pump inhibitors (PPIs) are commonly used during pregnancy to treat symptoms of gastroesophageal reflux disease. Both have been hypothesized to reduce the risk of preeclampsia. We determined associations of calcium-based antacid and PPI use during pregnancy with late-onset preeclampsia (≥34 weeks of gestation), taking into account dosage and timing of use.

Patients and Methods

We included 9058 pregnant women participating in the PRIDE Study (2012–2019) or The Dutch Pregnancy Drug Register (2014–2019), two prospective cohorts in The Netherlands. Data were collected through web-based questionnaires and obstetric records. We estimated risk ratios (RRs) for late-onset preeclampsia for any use and trajectories of calcium-based antacid and PPI use before gestational day 238, and hazard ratios (HRs) for time-varying exposures after gestational day 237.

Results

Late-onset preeclampsia was diagnosed in 2.6% of pregnancies. Any use of calcium-based antacids (RR 1.2 [95% CI 0.9–1.6]) or PPIs (RR 1.4 [95% CI 0.8–2.4]) before gestational day 238 was not associated with late-onset preeclampsia. Use of low-dose calcium-based antacids in gestational weeks 0–16 (<1 g/day; RR 1.8 [95% CI 1.1–2.9]) and any use of PPIs in gestational weeks 17–33 (RR 1.6 [95% CI 1.0–2.8]) seemed to increase risks of late-onset preeclampsia. We did not observe associations between late-onset preeclampsia and use of calcium-based antacids (HR 1.0 [95% CI 0.6–1.5]) and PPIs (HR 1.4 [95% CI 0.7–2.9]) after gestational day 237.

Conclusion

In this prospective cohort study, use of calcium-based antacids and PPIs during pregnancy was not found to reduce the risk of late-onset preeclampsia.

Selected clinical and demographic factors and all-cause mortality among individuals with Duchenne muscular dystrophy in the Muscular Dystrophy Surveillance, Tracking, and Research Network

Population-based estimates of survival among individuals with Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD) living in the United States are lacking. It is also unclear whether the association between glucocorticoid use and all-cause mortality persists in the context of other common treatments (cardiac medication, cough-assist, bilevel positive airway pressure, and scoliosis surgery) observed to delay mortality. Among 526 individuals identified by the Muscular Dystrophy Surveillance, Tracking, and Research Network, the estimated median survival time from birth was 23.7 years. Current glucocorticoid users had a lower hazard of mortality than non-users. Individuals who ever had scoliosis surgery had a lower hazard of mortality than individuals who did not have scoliosis surgery. Individuals who ever used cough assist had a lower hazard of mortality than individuals who never used cough assist. Non-Hispanic Black individuals had a higher hazard of mortality than non-Hispanic White individuals. No differences in hazards of mortality were observed between ever versus never use of cardiac medication and ever versus never use of bilevel positive airway pressure. The glucocorticoid observation is consistent with the 2018 Care Considerations statement that glucocorticoid use continues in the non-ambulatory phase. Our observations may inform the clinical care of individuals living with DMD.

Timing of adjuvant chemotherapy initiation and mortality among colon cancer patients at a safety-net health system

Background

Prior studies reported survival benefits from early initiation of adjuvant chemotherapy for stage III colon cancer, but this evidence was derived from studies that may be sensitive to time-related biases. Therefore, we aimed to estimate the effect of initiating adjuvant chemotherapy ≤8 or ≤ 12 weeks on overall and disease-free survival among stage III colon cancer patients using a study design that helps address time-related biases.

Methods

We used institutional registry data from JPS Oncology and Infusion Center, a Comprehensive Community Cancer Program. Eligible patients were adults aged < 80 years, diagnosed with first primary stage III colon cancer between 2011 and 2017, and received surgical resection with curative intent. We emulated a target trial with sequential eligibility. We subsequently pooled the trials and estimated risk ratios (RRs) along with 95% confidence limits (CL) for all-cause mortality and recurrence or death at 5-years between initiators and non-initiators of adjuvant chemotherapy ≤8 or ≤ 12 weeks using pseudo-observations and a marginal structural model with stabilized inverse probability of treatment weights.

Results

Our study population comprised 222 (for assessing initiation ≤8 weeks) and 310 (for assessing initiation ≤12 weeks) observations, of whom the majority were racial/ethnic minorities (64–65%), or uninsured with or without enrollment in our hospital-based medical assistance program (68–71%). Initiation of adjuvant chemotherapy ≤8 weeks of surgical resection did not improve overall survival (RR for all-cause mortality = 1.04, 95% CL: 0.57, 1.92) or disease-free survival (RR for recurrence or death = 1.07, 95% CL: 0.61, 1.88). The results were similar for initiation of adjuvant chemotherapy ≤12 weeks of surgical resection.

Conclusions

Our results suggest that the overall and disease-free survival benefits of initiating adjuvant chemotherapy ≤8 or ≤ 12 weeks of surgical resection may be overestimated in prior studies, which may be attributable to time-related biases. Nevertheless, our estimates were imprecise and differences in population characteristics are an alternate explanation. Additional studies that address time-related biases are needed to clarify our findings.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12885-022-09688-w.

Development of Open-Angle Glaucoma in Adults With Seropositive Rheumatoid Arthritis in Korea

IMPORTANCE

Although evidence is emerging that autoimmunity may be associated with neurodegeneration in glaucoma (beyond intraocular pressure-mediated damage), there is limited evidence connecting rheumatoid arthritis (RA), the most common autoimmune disease, with the risk of developing primary open-angle glaucoma (POAG).

OBJECTIVE

To investigate whether RA is associated with increased risk of POAG among Korean older adults.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

A nationwide propensity-matched cohort study was conducted using data from the Korean National Health Insurance Service-Senior cohort from 2002 to 2013. Data analysis was performed from November 2020 to July 2021.

EXPOSURES

New onset RA.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

The main outcome was development of POAG. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to calculate the cumulative incidence of POAG, and the incidence rate of POAG was estimated using a Poisson regression. A Cox proportional hazards regression model was used to investigate associations between RA and risk of POAG.

RESULTS

Among 10 245 participants, 7490 (73.1%) were women, and the mean (SD) age was 67.70 (4.84) years. A total of 2049 patients with incident seropositive RA and 8196 time-dependent, propensity score-matched, risk-set controls were included. POAG developed in 86 of 2049 patients with RA and 254 of 8196 matched controls. The cumulative incidence of POAG was higher in the RA cohort than in the matched controls. In the RA cohort, the incidence rate of POAG was 981.8 cases per 100 000 person years (95% CI, 794.3-1213.7 cases per 100 000 person years), whereas in the matched controls, the incidence rate was 679.5 cases per 100 000 person years (95% CI, 600.8-768.3 cases per 100 000 person years). Patients with RA were more likely to develop POAG than the matched controls (hazard ratio [HR], 1.44; 95% CI, 1.13-1.84). Increased POAG risk in the RA cohort was predominantly observed 2 years into the follow-up period (HR, 1.83; 95% CI, 1.28-2.61) and in those aged 75 years or older (HR, 2.12; 95% CI, 1.34-3.35).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

These findings suggest that RA is associated with a higher risk of developing POAG, especially within 2 years after diagnosis or among patients aged 75 years or older. There may be a common pathophysiological pathway between RA and POAG that is possibly immune mediated, and the nature of this association warrants further investigation.

Real-World Estimation of First- and Second-Line Treatments for Diffuse Large B-Cell Lymphoma Using Health Insurance Data: A Belgian Population-Based Study

We determined first- and second-line regimens, including hematopoietic stem cell transplantations, in all diffuse large B cell lymphoma (DLBCL) patients aged ≥20 yr (n = 1,888), registered at the Belgian Cancer Registry (2013–2015). Treatments were inferred from reimbursed drugs, and procedures registered in national health insurance databases. This real-world population-based study allows to assess patients usually excluded from clinical trials such as those with comorbidities, other malignancies (12%), and advanced age (28% are ≥80 yr old). Our data show that the majority of older patients are still started on first-line regimens with curative intent and a substantial proportion of them benefit from this approach. First-line treatments included full R-CHOP (44%), “incomplete” (R-)CHOP (18%), other anthracycline (14%), non-anthracycline (9%), only radiotherapy (3%), and no chemo-/radiotherapy (13%), with significant variation between age groups. The 5-year overall survival (OS) of all patients was 56% with a clear influence of age (78% [20–59 yr] versus 16% [≥85 yr]) and of the type of first-line treatments: full R-CHOP (72%), other anthracycline (58%), “incomplete” (R-)CHOP (47%), non-anthracycline (30%), only radiotherapy (30%), and no chemo-/radiotherapy (9%). Second-line therapy, presumed for refractory (7%) or relapsed disease (9%), was initiated in 252 patients (16%) and was predominantly (71%) platinum-based. The 5-year OS after second-line treatment without autologous stem cell transplantation (ASCT) was generally poor (11% in ≥70 yr versus 17% in <70 yr). An ASCT was performed in 5% of treated patients (n = 82). The 5-year OS after first- or second-line ASCT was similar (69% versus 66%). After adjustment, multivariable OS analyses indicated a significant hazard ratio (HR) for, among others, age (HR 1.81 to 5.95 for increasing age), performance status (PS) (HR 4.56 for PS >1 within 3 months from incidence), subsequent malignancies (HR 2.50), prior malignancies (HR 1.34), respiratory and diabetic comorbidity (HR 1.41 and 1.24), gender (HR 1.25 for males), and first-line treatment with full R-CHOP (HR 0.41) or other anthracycline-containing regimens (HR 0.72). Despite inherent limitations, patterns of care in DLBCL could be determined using an innovative approach based on Belgian health insurance data.

Occurrence of fatal police violence during pregnancy and hazard of preterm birth in California

BACKGROUND

Exposure to fatal police violence may play a role in population-level inequities in risk for preterm delivery.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate whether exposure to fatal police violence during pregnancy affects the hazard of preterm delivery and whether associations differ by race/ethnicity and fetal sex.

METHODS

We leveraged temporal variation in incidents of fatal police violence within census tracts to assess whether occurrence of fatal police violence in a person's tract during pregnancy was associated with increased hazard of extremely (20-27 weeks), early (28-31 weeks), moderate (32-33 weeks), and late (32-36 weeks) preterm delivery in California from 2007 to 2015. We used both death records and the Fatal Encounters database to identify incidents of fatal police violence. We estimated hazard ratios (HR) using time-varying Cox proportional hazard models stratified by census tract, controlling for age, race/ethnicity, educational attainment, health insurance type, parity, and the year and season of conception. We further stratified by race/ethnicity and infant sex to evaluate whether there were differential effects by these characteristics.

RESULTS

Exposure to an incident of fatal police violence was associated with a small increase in the hazard of late preterm birth using both the death records (N = 376,029; hazard ratio [HR] 1.05, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.00, 1.10) and the Fatal Encounters data (N = 938,814; HR 1.03, 95% CI 1.00, 1.06). We also observed an association for moderate preterm birth in the Fatal Encounters data (HR 1.06, 95% CI 0.98, 1.15). We did not observe associations for early or extremely preterm birth in either data source. Larger relative hazards of moderate (HR 1.25, 95% CI 0.93, 1.68) and late preterm delivery (HR 1.18, 95% CI 1.05, 1.33) were observed among Black birth parents with female births in the Fatal Encounters data.

CONCLUSIONS

Preventing police use of lethal force may reduce preterm delivery in communities where such violence occurs.

New-user and prevalent-user designs and the definition of study time origin in pharmacoepidemiology: A review of reporting practices

BACKGROUND

Guidance reports for observational comparative effectiveness and drug safety research recommend implementing a new-user design whenever possible, since it reduces the risk of selection bias in exposure effect estimation compared to a prevalent-user design. The uptake of this guidance has not been studied extensively.

METHODS

We reviewed 89 observational effectiveness and safety cohort studies published in six pharmacoepidemiological journals in 2018 and 2019. We developed an extraction tool to assess how frequently new-user and prevalent-user designs were reported to be implemented. For studies that implemented a new-user design in both treatment arms, we extracted information about the extent to which the moment of meeting eligibility criteria, treatment initiation, and start of follow-up were reported to be aligned.

RESULTS

Of the 89 studies included, 40% reported implementing a new-user design for both the study exposure arm and the comparator arm, while 13% reported implementing a prevalent-user design in both arms. The moment of meeting eligibility criteria, treatment initiation, and start of follow-up were reported to be aligned in both treatment arms in 53% of studies that reported implementing a new-user design. We provided examples of studies that minimized the risk of introducing bias due to unclear definition of time origin in unexposed participants, immortal time, or a time lag.

CONCLUSIONS

Almost half of the included studies reported implementing a new-user design. Implications of misalignment of study design origin were difficult to assess because it would require explicit reporting of the target estimand in original studies. We recommend that the choice for a particular study time origin is explicitly motivated to enable assessment of validity of the study.

Rates of Neuropsychiatric Disorders and Gestational Age at Birth in a Danish Population

IMPORTANCE

Nonoptimal gestational durations could be associated with neurodevelopmental disabilities, yet evidence regarding finer classification of gestational age and rates of multiple major neuropsychiatric disorders beyond childhood is limited.

OBJECTIVE

To comprehensively evaluate associations between 6 gestational age groups and rates of 9 major types and 8 subtypes of childhood and adult-onset neuropsychiatric disorders.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This cohort study evaluated data from a nationwide register of singleton births in Denmark from January 1, 1978, to December 31, 2016. Data analyses were conducted from October 1, 2019, through November 15, 2020.

EXPOSURES

Gestational age subgroups were classified according to data from the Danish Medical Birth Register: very preterm (20-31 completed weeks), moderately preterm (32-33 completed weeks), late preterm (34-36 completed weeks), early term (37-38 completed weeks), term (39-40 completed weeks, reference), and late or postterm (41-45 completed weeks).

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Neuropsychiatric diagnostic records (International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, Tenth Revision codes F00-F99) were ascertained from the Danish Psychiatric Central Register up to August 10, 2017. Poisson regression was used to estimate the incidence rate ratio (IRR) and 95% CI for neuropsychiatric disorders, adjusting for selected sociodemographic factors.

RESULTS

Of all 2 327 639 singleton births studied (1 194 925 male newborns [51.3%]), 22 647 (1.0%) were born very preterm, 19 801 (0.9%) were born moderately preterm, 99 488 (4.3%) were born late preterm, 388 416 (16.7%) were born early term, 1 198 605 (51.5%) were born at term, and 598 682 (25.7%) were born late or postterm. A gradient of decreasing IRRs was found from very preterm to late preterm for having any or each of the 9 neuropsychiatric disorders (eg, very preterm: IRR, 1.49 [95% CI, 1.43-1.55]; moderately preterm: IRR, 1.23 [95% CI, 1.18-1.28]; late preterm: IRR, 1.17 [95% CI, 1.14-1.19] for any disorders) compared with term births. Individuals born early term had 7% higher rates (IRR, 1.07 [95% CI, 1.06-1.08]) for any neuropsychiatric diagnosis and a 31% higher rate for intellectual disability (IRR, 1.31 [95% CI, 1.25-1.37]) compared with those born at term. The late or postterm group had lower IRRs for most disorders, except pervasive developmental disorders, for which the rate was higher for postterm births compared with term births (IRR, 1.06 [95% CI, 1.03-1.09]).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

Higher incidences of all major neuropsychiatric disorders were observed across the spectrum of preterm births. Early term and late or postterm births might not share a homogeneous low risk with individuals born at term. These findings suggest that interventions that address perinatal factors associated with nonoptimal gestation might reduce long-term neuropsychiatric risks in the population.

Unplanned hospitalisations in older people: illness trajectories in the last year of life

OBJECTIVE

Unplanned hospitalisations can be burdensome for older people who approach the end of life. Hospitalisations disrupt the continuity of care and often run against patients' preference for comfort and palliative goals of care. This study aimed to describe the patterns of unplanned hospitalisations across illness trajectories in the last year of life.

METHODS

Longitudinal, retrospective cohort study of decedents, including all older adults (≥65 years) who died in Sweden in 2015. We used nationwide data from the National Cause of Death Register linked at the individual level with several other administrative and healthcare registers. Illness trajectories were defined based on multiple-cause-of-death data to approximate functional decline near the end of life. Incidence rate ratios (IRR) for unplanned hospitalisations were modelled with zero-inflated Poisson regressions.

RESULTS

In a total of 77 315 older decedents (53% women, median age 85.2 years), the overall incidence rate of unplanned hospitalisations during the last year of life was 175 per 100 patient-years. The adjusted IRR for unplanned hospitalisation was 1.20 (95%CI 1.18 to 1.21) times higher than average among decedents who followed a trajectory of cancer. Conversely, decedents who followed the trajectory of prolonged dwindling had a lower-than-average risk of unplanned hospitalisation (IRR 0.66, 95% CI 0.65 to 0.68). However, these differences between illness trajectories only became evident during the last 3 months of life.

CONCLUSION

Our study highlights that, during the last 3 months of life, unplanned hospitalisations are increasingly frequent. Policies aiming to reduce burdensome care transitions should consider the underlying illness trajectories.

Educational note: addressing special cases of bias that frequently occur in perinatal epidemiology

The epidemiologic study of pregnancy and birth outcomes may be hindered by several unique and challenging issues. Pregnancy is a time-limited period in which severe cohort attrition takes place between conception and birth and adverse outcomes are complex and multi-factorial. Biases span those familiar to epidemiologists: selection, confounding and information biases. Specific challenges include conditioning on potential intermediates, how to treat race/ethnicity, and influential windows of prolonged, seasonal and potentially time-varying exposures. Researchers studying perinatal outcomes should be cognizant of the potential pitfalls due to these factors and address their implications with respect to formulating questions of interest, choice of an appropriate analysis approach and interpretations of findings given assumptions. In this article, we catalogue some of the more important potential sources of bias in perinatal epidemiology that have more recently gained attention in the literature, provide the epidemiologic context behind each issue and propose practices for dealing with each issue to the extent possible.

Guidance for design and analysis of observational studies of fetal and newborn outcomes following COVID-19 vaccination during pregnancy

COVID-19 vaccines are now being deployed as essential tools in the public health response to the global SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. Pregnant individuals are a unique subgroup of the population with distinctive considerations regarding risk and benefit that extend beyond themselves to their fetus/newborn. As a complement to traditional pharmacovigilance and clinical studies, evidence to comprehensively assess COVID-19 vaccine safety in pregnancy will need to be generated through observational epidemiologic studies in large populations. However, there are several unique methodological challenges that face observational assessments of vaccination during pregnancy, some of which may be more pronounced for COVID-19 studies. In this contribution, we discuss the most critical study design, data collection, and analytical issues likely to arise. We offer brief guidance to optimize the quality of such studies to ensure their maximum value for informing public health decision-making.

Survival analysis among unresectable pancreatic adenocarcinoma patients undergoing endoscopic or percutaneous interventions

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Most patients with pancreatic cancer are diagnosed at a late stage and are not candidates for surgical resection. Many have jaundice requiring biliary drainage, which can be accomplished using ERCP or percutaneous transhepatic biliary drainage (PTBD). To date, no studies have evaluated the impact of ERCP or PTBD on survival among patients with unresectable pancreatic cancer. The aims of our study were to compare overall survival between patients with unresectable pancreatic cancer receiving ERCP with those receiving PTBD, to compare overall survival between patients who received a biliary intervention (ERCP or PTBD) versus those who received no biliary intervention, and to compare secondary outcomes, such as length of hospital stay and costs, between ERCP and PTBD.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective cohort study using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results-Medicare database. Patients with known pancreatic cancer were included if they had a pancreatic head mass and/or evidence of biliary obstruction. We used a time-varying Cox proportional hazards model to estimate overall survival of patients receiving ERCP versus PTBD and overall survival among patients who received a biliary intervention versus no biliary drainage. Secondary outcomes included length of hospital stay, costs, and admissions within 30 days.

RESULTS

Of 14,808 patients with unresectable pancreatic cancer, 8898 patients (60.0%) underwent biliary drainage and 5910 patients (39.9%) received no biliary intervention. ERCP accounted for most biliary interventions (8271, 93.0%), whereas 623 patients (7.0%) underwent PTBD. In multivariable analysis, ERCP was associated with reduced mortality compared with PTBD (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], .67; 95% confidence interval [CI], .60-.75). When ERCP or PTBD was compared with no biliary intervention, both procedures were associated with a survival benefit (aHR, .51 [95% CI, .49-.54] and .53 [95% CI, .48-.59], respectively). Compared with patients receiving PTBD, those who underwent ERCP had shorter mean length of hospital stay (7.0 ± 5.7 days vs 9.6 ± 6.6 days, respectively; P < .001) and lower hospital charges ($54,899.25 vs $75,246.00, P < .001) but no significant difference in hospitalization or 30-day readmissions.

CONCLUSIONS

ERCP is associated with reduced mortality compared with PTBD in pancreatic cancer patients, highlighting the critical role of ERCP in the management of biliary obstruction from pancreatic cancer.

Use of Non-Cancer Medications in New Zealand Women at the Diagnosis of Primary Invasive Breast Cancer: Prevalence, Associated Factors and Effects on Survival

Background: Assessing the use of multiple medications in cancer patients is crucial as such use may affect cancer outcomes. This study reports the prevalence of non-cancer medication use at breast cancer diagnosis, its associated factors, and its effect on survival. Methods: We identified all women diagnosed with primary invasive breast cancer between 1 January 2007 and 31 December 2016, from four population-based breast cancer registries, in Auckland, Waikato, Wellington, and Christchurch, New Zealand. Through linkage to the pharmaceutical records, we obtained information on non-cancer medications that were dispensed for a minimum of 90 days’ supply between one year before cancer diagnosis and first cancer treatment. We performed ordered logistic regressions to identify associated factors and Cox regressions to investigate its effect on patient survival. Results: Of 14,485 patients, 52% were dispensed at least one drug (mean—1.3 drugs; maximum—13 drugs), with a higher prevalence observed in patients who were older, treated at a public facility, more economically deprived, and screen-detected. The use of 2–3 drugs showed a reduced non-breast cancer mortality (HR = 0.75, 95%CI = 0.60–0.92) in previously hospitalised patients, with other groups showing non-significant associations when adjusted for confounding factors. Drug use was not associated with changes in breast cancer-specific mortality. Conclusions: Non-cancer medication use at breast cancer diagnosis was common in New Zealand, more prevalent in older and disadvantaged women, and showed no effect on breast cancer-specific mortality, but a reduction in other cause mortality with the use of 2–3 drugs.

The Impact of Paratuberculosis on Milk Production, Fertility, and Culling in Large Commercial Hungarian Dairy Herds

Paratuberculosis (PTBC) is a chronic disease caused by Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP), which is common in dairy herds worldwide, although the scale of its impact on herd productivity is unclear. The aim of our study was to determine the differences between MAP ELISA positive vs. negative cows in terms of milk production and quality, reproductive parameters, and culling. The data of five large dairy herds that participated in the voluntary PTBC testing program in Hungary were analyzed. Cows were tested by ELISA (IDEXX Paratuberculosis Screening Ab Test, IDEXX Laboratories, Inc., Westbrook, ME, USA) using milk samples collected during official performance testing. The outcome of the initial screening test involving all milking cows in the herds was used for the classification of the cows. The 305-day milk production, reproduction and culling data of 4,341 dairy cows, and their monthly performance testing results (n = 87,818) were analyzed. Multivariate linear and logistic models, and right censored tobit model were used for the statistical analysis. Test-day and 305-day milk production of ELISA positive cows decreased by 4.6 kg [95% CI: 3.5–5.6 kg, P < 0.0001 (−13.2%)] and 1,030 kg [95% CI: 708–1,352 kg, P < 0.0001 (−9.4%)], compared to their ELISA negative herdmates, respectively. Milk ELISA positive cows had 35.8% higher [95% CI: 17.9–56.4%, P < 0.0001] somatic cell count, on average. Test positive cows conceived 23.2 days later [95% CI: 9.2–37.3 days, P = 0.0012 (+16.5%)] and their calving interval was 33.8 days longer [95% CI: 13.2–54.4 days, P = 0.0013, (+9.7%)], compared to the negative cows, on average. Milk ELISA positive cows were less likely to conceive to first insemination (odds ratio: 0.49, 95% CI: 0.31–0.75, P = 0.0013), and required 0.42 more inseminations to conceive [95% CI: 0.07–0.77, P = 0.0192 (+13.7%)], on average. Milk ELISA positive cows were culled 160.5 days earlier after testing compared to their ELISA negative herdmates (95% CI: 117.5–203.5 days, P < 0.0001). Our results suggest that MAP ELISA positive cows experience decreased milk production, milk quality, fertility, and longevity, which supports the need to control the prevalence of PTBC in dairy herds.

Oral Corticosteroids and Risk of Preterm Birth in the California Medicaid Program

BACKGROUND

There is limited information regarding the impact of dose and gestational timing of oral corticosteroid (OCS) use on preterm birth (PTB), especially among women with asthma.

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate OCS dose and timing on PTB for asthma and, as a comparison, systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE).

METHODS

We used health care data from California Medicaid enrollees linked to birth certificates (2007-2013), identifying women with asthma (n = 22,084) and SLE (n = 1174). We estimated risk ratios (RR) for OCS cumulative dose trajectories and other disease-related medications before gestational day 140 and hazard ratios (HR) for time-varying exposures after day 139.

RESULTS

For asthma, PTB risk was 14.0% for no OCS exposure and 14.3%, 16.8%, 20.5%, and 32.7% in low, medium, medium-high, and high cumulative dose trajectory groups, respectively, during the first 139 days. The high-dose group remained associated with PTB after adjustment (adjusted RR [aRR]: 1.46; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.00, 2.15). OCS dose after day 139 was not clearly associated with PTB, nor were controller medications. For SLE, PTB risk for no OCS exposure was 24.9%, and it was 39.1% in low- and 61.2% in high-dose trajectory groups. aRR were 1.80 (95% CI: 1.34, 2.40) for high and 1.24 (95% CI: 0.97, 1.58) for low groups. Only prednisone equivalent dose >20 mg/day after day 139 was associated with increased PTB (adjusted HR: 2.54; 95% CI: 1.60, 4.03).

CONCLUSIONS

For asthma, higher OCS doses early in pregnancy, but not later, were associated with increased PTB. For SLE, higher doses early and later in pregnancy were associated with PTB.

Restricted mean survival time of older adults with severe aortic stenosis referred for transcatheter aortic valve replacement

BACKGROUND

Few studies have measured frailty as a potential reason for foregoing transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR) in older adults with severe aortic stenosis (AS). This study sought to determine the impact of frailty and other clinician-cited reasons on restricted mean survival time (RMST).

METHODS

An analysis of the McGill Frailty Registry was conducted between 2014 and 2018 at the McGill University Health Center Structural Valve Clinic. Consecutive nonsurgical patients referred for TAVR were included. In those that underwent balloon aortic valvuloplasty or medical management, the primary clinician-cited reason for foregoing TAVR was codified. Vital status was ascertained at 1 year and analysed using RMST and Kaplan-Meier analyses.

RESULTS

The study consisted of 373 patients with a mean age of 82.4 years, of which 233 underwent TAVR and 140 did not. Patients who did not undergo TAVR were more likely to be nonagenarians, with left ventricular dysfunction, chronic kidney disease, dementia, disability, depression, malnutrition, and frailty. The primary clinician-cited reason was: comorbidity in 34%, frailty in 23%, procedural feasibility and risks in 16%, and mild or unrelated symptoms in 27%. Compared to the TAVR group, 1-year RMST was reduced by 2.0 months in the medical management group (95% CI 1.2, 2.7) and by 1.1 months in the valvuloplasty group (95% CI -0.2, 2.5).

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with severe AS referred for TAVR may never undergo the procedure on the basis of comorbidity, frailty, procedural issues, and symptoms. The best treatment decision is one that follows from multi-disciplinary assessment encompassing frailty.