Models of mast fruiting in trees

Evolutionary ecology of masting: mechanisms, models, and climate change

Many perennial plants show mast seeding, characterized by synchronous and highly variable reproduction across years. We propose a general model of masting, integrating proximate factors (environmental variation, weather cues, and resource budgets) with ultimate drivers (predator satiation and pollination efficiency). This general model shows how the relationships between masting and weather shape the diverse responses of species to climate warming, ranging from no change to lower interannual variation or reproductive failure. The role of environmental prediction as a masting driver is being reassessed; future studies need to estimate prediction accuracy and the benefits acquired. Since reproduction is central to plant adaptation to climate change, understanding how masting adapts to shifting environmental conditions is now a central question.

Evolution of masting in plants is linked to investment in low tissue mortality

Masting, a variable and synchronized variation in reproductive effort is a prevalent strategy among perennial plants, but the factors leading to interspecific differences in masting remain unclear. Here, we investigate interannual patterns of reproductive investment in 517 species of terrestrial perennial plants, including herbs, graminoids, shrubs, and trees. We place these patterns in the context of the plants' phylogeny, habitat, form and function. Our findings reveal that masting is widespread across the plant phylogeny. Nonetheless, reversion from masting to regular seed production is also common. While interannual variation in seed production is highest in temperate and boreal zones, our analysis controlling for environment and phylogeny indicates that masting is more frequent in species that invest in tissue longevity. Our modeling exposes masting-trait relationships that would otherwise remain hidden and provides large-scale evidence that the costs of delayed reproduction play a significant role in the evolution of variable reproduction in plants.

Global patterns in the predator satiation effect of masting: A meta-analysis

Masting, or synchronous production of large seed crops, is widespread among plants. The predator satiation hypothesis states that masting evolved to overwhelm seed predators with an excess of food. Yet, this popular explanation faced few rigorous tests. We conducted a meta-analysis of studies that related the magnitude of seed production to the intensity of seed predation. Our results validate certain theoretical notions (e.g., that predator satiation is more effective at higher latitudes) but challenge others (e.g., that specialist and generalist consumers differ in the type of functional response to masting). We also found that masting is losing its ability to satiate consumers, probably because global warming affected masting patterns. This shift might considerably impair the reproduction of masting plants.

Predator satiation is the most commonly tested hypothesis that explains the evolutionary advantages of masting. It proposes that masting benefits plant reproduction by reducing the proportion of seed crop that is consumed by predators. This hypothesis is widely accepted, but many theoretical notions about predator satiation have not been subjected to a robust evaluation. To address this issue, we conducted a meta-analysis of studies that quantified seed predation in relation to mast seeding. We found evidence of both numerical (starvation between mast years) and functional (satiation during mast years) response of consumers to masting. These two effects reinforced each other. Masting satiated invertebrate but not vertebrate seed predators. Satiation was more pronounced at higher, temperate, and boreal latitudes, perhaps because masting is more effective in reducing seed losses when plant communities are less diverse. The effectiveness of masting in satiating invertebrate consumers declined over time (1972 to 2018), probably reflecting the impact of climate change on the frequency and intensity of masting. If masting ceases to reduce seed losses, a crucial advantage of this reproductive strategy will be lost, and sustainability of many tree populations will decline.

Costs and benefits of masting: economies of scale are not reduced by negative density-dependence in seedling survival in Sorbus aucuparia

Masting is a widespread reproductive strategy in plants that helps to reduce seed predation and increase pollination. However, masting can involve costs, notably negative density-dependent (NDD) seedling survival caused by concentrating reproduction in intermittent events. Masting benefits have received widespread attention, but the costs are understudied, which precludes understanding why some plant species have evolved intense masting, while others reproduce regularly. We followed seed production, seed predation (both 13 yr), and seedling recruitment and survival (11 yr) in Sorbus aucuparia. We tested whether NDD in seedling survival after mast years can reduce the benefits of pulsed reproduction that come through predator satiation. Seed predation rates were extreme in our population (mean = 75%), but were reduced by masting. The commonly accepted, but untested, assertion that pulsed recruitment is associated with strong NDD was unsupported. Consequently, the proportion of seedlings that survived their first year increased with fruit production. This provides a rare test of economies of scale beyond the seed stage. Our results provide estimation of the costs of mast seeding, and indicate that these may be lower than expected. Low masting costs, if common, may help explain why masting is such a widespread reproductive strategy throughout the plant kingdom.

A brief history of masting research

Although it has long been recognized that seed production by many forest trees varies greatly from year to year, masting (along with 'mast fruiting', 'mast seeding' and 'masting behaviour') as a concept referring to such variability is a relatively recent development. Here, I provide a brief history of masting research, highlighting some of the early contributions by foresters, zoologists and others that paved the way for the burgeoning number of studies currently being conducted by researchers around the world. Of particular current interest is work attempting to understand the proximate mechanisms, evolutionary drivers and community effects of this important ecological phenomenon as well as the ways that climate change may influence masting behaviour in the future. This article is part of the theme issue 'The ecology and evolution of synchronized seed production in plants'.

Studying the genetic basis of masting

The mechanisms underlying mast seeding have traditionally been studied by collecting long-term observational data on seed crops and correlating seedfall with environmental variables. Significant progress in ecological genomics will improve our understanding of the evolution of masting by clarifying the genetic basis of masting traits and the role of natural selection in shaping those traits. Here, we summarize three important aspects in studying the evolution of masting at the genetic level: which traits govern masting, whether those traits are genetically regulated, and which taxa show wide variation in these traits. We then introduce recent studies on the molecular mechanisms of masting. Those studies measure seasonal changes in gene expression in natural conditions to quantify how multiple environmental factors combine to regulate floral initiation, which in many masting plant species is the single largest contributor to among-year variation in seed crops. We show that Fagaceae offers exceptional opportunities for evolutionary investigations because of its diversity at both the phenotypic and genetic levels and existing documented genome sequences. This article is part of the theme issue 'The ecology and evolution of synchronized seed production in plants'.

Biogeography and phylogeny of masting: do global patterns fit functional hypotheses?

Interannual variability of seed crops (CVp) has profound consequences for plant populations and food webs, where high CVp is termed 'masting'. Here we ask: is global variation in CVp better predicted by plant or habitat differences consistent with adaptive economies of scale, in which flower and seed benefits increase disproportionately during mast years; or by passive mechanisms, in which seed production responds to variation in resource availability associated with climate variability? To address this question, we compiled a dataset for phylogenetic comparative analysis of long-term fruit/seed production for plants comprising 920 time series spanning 311 plant species. Factors associated with both adaptive benefits of CVp (wind pollination and seed dispersal) and climatic variability (variability of summer precipitation) were among the best predictors of global variation in CVp. We observed a hump-shaped relationship between CVp and latitude and intermediate phylogenetic and geographic signals in CVp. CVp is patterned nonrandomly across the globe and over the plant tree of life, where high CVp is associated with species benefiting from economies of scale of seed or flower production and with species that experience variable rainfall over summer months when seeds usually mature.

Nutrient scarcity as a selective pressure for mast seeding

Mast seeding is one of the most intriguing reproductive traits in nature. Despite its potential drawbacks in terms of fitness, the widespread existence of this phenomenon suggests that it should have evolutionary advantages under certain circumstances. Using a global dataset of seed production time series for 219 plant species from all of the continents, we tested whether masting behaviour appears predominantly in species with low foliar nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations when controlling for local climate and productivity. Here, we show that masting intensity is higher in species with low foliar N and P concentrations, and especially in those with imbalanced N/P ratios, and that the evolutionary history of masting behaviour has been linked to that of nutrient economy. Our results support the hypothesis that masting is stronger in species growing under limiting conditions and suggest that this reproductive behaviour might have evolved as an adaptation to nutrient limitations and imbalances.

Empty seeds are not always bad: simultaneous effect of seed emptiness and masting on animal seed predation

Seed masting and production of empty seeds have often been considered independently as different strategies to reduce seed predation by animals. Here, we integrate both phenomena within the whole assemblage of seed predators (both pre and post-dispersal) and in two contrasting microsites (open vs. sheltered) to improve our understanding of the factors controlling seed predation in a wind-dispersed tree (Ulmus laevis). In years with larger crop sizes more avian seed predators were attracted with an increase in the proportion of full seeds predated on the ground. However, for abundant crops, the presence of empty seeds decreased the proportion of full seeds predated. Empty seeds remained for a very long period in the tree, making location of full seeds more difficult for pre-dispersal predators and expanding the overall seed drop period at a very low cost (in dry biomass and allocation of C, N and P). Parthenocarpy (non-fertilized seeds) was the main cause of seed emptiness whereas seed abortion was produced in low quantity. These aborted seeds fell prematurely and, thus, could not work as deceptive seeds. A proportion of 50% empty seeds significantly reduced ground seed predation by 26%. However, a high rate of parthenocarpy (beyond 50% empty seeds) did not significantly reduce seed predation in comparison to 50% empty seeds. We also found a high variability and unpredictability in the production of empty seeds, both at tree and population level, making predator deception more effective. Open areas were especially important to facilitate seed survival since rodents (the main post-dispersal predators) consumed seeds mostly under shrub cover. In elm trees parthenocarpy is a common event that might work as an adaptive strategy to reduce seed predation. Masting per se did not apparently reduce the overall proportion of seeds predated in this wind-dispersed tree, but kept great numbers of seeds unconsumed.

The evolutionary ecology of mast seeding

The past seven years have seen a revolution in understanding the causes of mast seeding In perennial plants. Before 1987, the two main theories were resource matching (i.e. plants vary their reproductive output to match variable resources) and predator satiation (i.e. losses to predators are reduced by varying the seed crop). Today, resource matching is restricted to a proximate role, and predator satiation is only one of many theories for the ultimate advantage of masting. Wind pollination, prediction of favourable years for seedling establishment, animal pollination, animal dispersal of fruits, high accessory costs of reproduction and large seed size have all been advanced as possible causes of masting. Of these, wind pollination, predator satiation and environmental prediction are important in a number of species, but the other theories have less support. In future, Important advances seem likely from quantifying synchrony within a population, and examining species with very constant reproduction between years.

Why do sex ratio dimorphisms exist in Quercus masting? Evolution of imperfect synchronous reproduction in Monoecious trees

Masting is synchronous intermittent production of seeds in perennial plant populations. Some self-compatible monoecious Quercus species, such as oaks, exhibit sex ratio dimorphism and produce a certain proportion of male flowers, even in a year when no seed set occurs. To investigate sex ratio dimorphism in masting trees, we introduced sexual allocation as an evolutionary trait into the Resource Budget Model and examined the evolution of the sex ratio. Analytical and numerical findings show that (1) perfectly synchronous intermittent reproduction does not evolve; (2) if the fruiting cost of female flowers R(c) is sufficiently large and the pollen limitation beta is intermediate, annual reproduction does not evolve; (3) under conditions (2), sex ratio dimorphism can evolve across a wide region of parameter space; (4) after dimorphism is established, individuals with a female-biased sex ratio receive much more pollen supply from male-biased individuals and tend to show intermittent reproduction with or without synchrony; and (5) dimorphism is maintained with irregular and nearly discontinuous changes of sex ratio. These results suggest that sex ratio dimorphism contributes to improving pollen availability and causes resource depletion and the occurrence of intermittent reproduction in female-biased individuals.

Age-related variation in carbon allocation at tree and stand scales in beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) and sessile oak (Quercus petraea (Matt.) Liebl.) using a chronosequence approach

Two types of physiological mechanisms can contribute to growth decline with age: (i) the mechanisms leading to the reduction of carbon assimilation (input) and (ii) those leading to modification of the resource economy. Surprisingly, the processes relating to carbon allocation have been little investigated as compared to research on the processes governing carbon assimilation. The objective of this paper was thus to test the hypothesis that growth decrease related to age is accompanied by changes in carbon allocation to the benefit of storage and reproductive functions in two contrasting broad-leaved species: beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) and sessile oak (Quercus petraea (Matt.) Liebl.). Age-related changes in carbon allocation were studied using a chronosequence approach. Chronosequences, each consisting of several even-aged stands ranging from 14 to 175 years old for beech and from 30 to 134 years old for sessile oak, were divided into five or six age classes. In this study, carbon allocations to growth, storage and reproduction were defined as the relative amount of carbon invested in biomass increment, carbohydrate increment and seed production, respectively. Tree-ring width and allometric relationships were used to assess biomass increment at the tree and stand scales. Below-ground biomass was assessed using a specific allometric relationship between root:shoot ratio and age, established from the literature review. Seasonal variations of carbohydrate concentrations were used to assess carbon allocation to storage. Reproduction effort was quantified for beech stands by collecting seed and cupule production. Age-related flagging of biomass productivity was assessed at the tree and stand scales, and carbohydrate quantities in trees increased with age for both species. Seed and cupule production increased with stand age in beech from 56 gC m(-)(2) year(-1) at 30 years old to 129 gC m(-2) year(-1) at 138 years old. In beech, carbon allocation to storage and reproductive functions increased with age to the detriment of carbon allocation to growth functions. In contrast, the carbon balance between growth and storage remained constant between age classes in sessile oak. The contrasting age-related changes in carbon allocation between beech and sessile oak are discussed with reference to the differences in growing environment, phenology and hydraulic properties of ring-porous and diffuse-porous species.

Mast fruiting of large ectomycorrhizal African rain forest trees: importance of dry season intensity, and the resource-limitation hypothesis

Mast fruiting is a distinctive reproductive trait in trees. This rain forest study, at a nutrient-poor site with a seasonal climate in tropical Africa, provides new insights into the causes of this mode of phenological patterning. At Korup, Cameroon, 150 trees of the large, ectomycorrhizal caesalp, Microberlinia bisulcata, were recorded almost monthly for leafing, flowering and fruiting during 1995-2000. The series was extended to 1988-2004 with less detailed data. Individual transitions in phenology were analysed. Masting occurred when the dry season before fruiting was drier, and the one before that was wetter, than average. Intervals between events were usually 2 or 3 yr. Masting was associated with early leaf exchange, followed by mass flowering, and was highly synchronous in the population. Trees at higher elevation showed more fruiting. Output declined between 1995 and 2000. Mast fruiting in M. bisulcata appears to be driven by climate variation and is regulated by internal tree processes. The resource-limitation hypothesis was supported. An 'alternative bearing' system seems to underlie masting. That ectomycorrhizal habit facilitates masting in trees is strongly implied.

Empirical Models of Pollen Limitation, Resource Acquisition, and Mast Seeding by a Bee‐Pollinated Wildflower

Synchronous mast seeding is increasingly recognized as common in plant populations. Recent theoretical models show that synchronous mast seeding could be a consequence of resource allocation and storage within individual plants, coupled by pollen limitation in low-flowering years. We used long-term population and weather data to parameterize models of flowering based on stored resources and pollen limitation in Astragalus scaphoides, a bee-pollinated plant that flowers in alternate years. We used these models to test whether internal resource dynamics could explain mast seeding in A. scaphoides and, if so, whether synchrony was caused by pollen limitation and/or fluctuations in precipitation. We compared predictions of models that included all combinations of three factors: constant versus precipitation-dependent resource gain, uniform versus heterogeneous resource gain (among individual plants), and resource-dependent versus resource- and pollen-limited fruit set. Pollen limitation and heterogeneous resource gain were necessary and sufficient to explain alternate-year flowering, but precipitation increased the quantitative match between model predictions and flowering dynamics. Together, our results support the importance of density-dependent pollen limitation as an ultimate and proximate cause of mast seeding in A. scaphoides. Precipitation does not act as a direct cue for synchrony in this species but might affect long-term resource gain and fruiting dynamics.

Spatial dynamics of specialist seed predators on synchronized and intermittent seed production of host plants

Masting, the synchronized and intermittent seed production by plant populations, provides highly variable food resources for specialist seed predators. Such a reproductive mode helps minimize seed losses through predator satiation and extinction of seed predator populations. The seed predators can buffer the resource variation through dispersal or extended diapause. We developed a spatially explicit resource-consumer model to understand the effect of masting on specialist seed predators. The masting dynamics were assumed to follow a resource-based model for plant reproduction, and the population dynamics of the predator were represented by a spatially extended Nicholson-Bailey model. The resultant model demonstrated that when host plants reproduce intermittently, seed predator populations go locally extinct, but global persistence of the predator is facilitated by dispersal or extended diapause. Global extinction of the predator resulted when the intermittent reproduction is highly synchronized among plants. An approximate invasion criterion for the predators showed that negative lag-1 autocorrelation in seeding reduces invasibility, and positive lag-1 cross-correlation enhances invasibility. Spatial synchronization in seeding at local scale caused by pollen coupling (or climate forcing) further prevented invasion of the predators. If the predators employed extended diapause, extremely high temporal variability in reproduction was required for plants to evade the predators.