Spatial association between malaria vector species richness and malaria in Colombia

Trends in mosquito species distribution modeling: insights for vector surveillance and disease control

Species distribution modeling (SDM) has become an increasingly common approach to explore questions about ecology, geography, outbreak risk, and global change as they relate to infectious disease vectors. Here, we conducted a systematic review of the scientific literature, screening 563 abstracts and identifying 204 studies that used SDMs to produce distribution estimates for mosquito species. While the number of studies employing SDM methods has increased markedly over the past decade, the overwhelming majority used a single method (maximum entropy modeling; MaxEnt) and focused on human infectious disease vectors or their close relatives. The majority of regional models were developed for areas in Africa and Asia, while more localized modeling efforts were most common for North America and Europe. Findings from this study highlight gaps in taxonomic, geographic, and methodological foci of current SDM literature for mosquitoes that can guide future efforts to study the geography of mosquito-borne disease risk.

Spatial fine-resolution model of malaria risk for the Colombian Pacific region

OBJECTIVE

To categorise and map, at high resolution, the risk of malaria incidence in the Pacific region, the main malaria-endemic region of Colombia.

METHODS

The relationship between the environmental variables Normalized Difference Vegetation Index Normalized Difference Water Index, Topographic Wetness Index, precipitation and temperature with the observed Annual Parasitic Index was evaluated using a generalised linear model. An incidence risk map at a resolution of 1 km² was constructed and projected to the entire endemic region. Associations of malaria risk categories with both presence records and co-occurrence of the three main malaria vectors were determined.

RESULTS

A significant correlation was found for the incidence of malaria with precipitation and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (R²  = 0.98, P < 0.05), whereas there was no significant correlation with the remaining environmental and topographic variables. Moderate- to high-risk areas were located mainly in central Chocó Department along the San Juan and Atrato rivers and in areas west of the Cauca River and Pacific lowlands of the Andes Mountains. There was a statistically significant relationship for the presence of the two main vectors Anopheles darlingi and Anopheles nuneztovari with the high malaria risk category. Furthermore, malaria risk was directly proportional to the number of co-occurring vector species.

CONCLUSIONS

The map obtained provides useful information on the risk of malaria in particular places of the Colombian Pacific region. The data can be used by public entities to optimise the allocation of economic resources for vector control interventions and surveillance.

Comparative Vector Efficiency of Two Prevalent Mosquito Species for Dog Heartworm in North Carolina

The dog heartworm, Dirofilaria immitis (Leidy) (Spirurida: Onchocercidae), is a devastating parasite of domestic and wild canines vectored by a multitude of mosquito species. Although many species are implicated as vectors, not all contribute equally to disease transmission, with demonstrated variation in vector efficiency between and within species. We investigated the vector efficiency of mosquitoes derived from wild-caught North Carolina populations of two known heartworm vectors: a native species, Aedes triseriatus (Say) (Diptera: Culicidae), and an invasive species, Aedes albopictus (Skuse). We compared the parasite developmental times within the mosquito, mosquito longevity and fecundity, and the vector efficiency index between the two species. We found that the tested composite North Carolina population of Ae. triseriatus was an efficient vector of D. immitis under laboratory conditions, whereas the local composite population of Ae. albopictus was a competent but relatively poor vector. Compared with Ae. triseriatus, Ae. albopictus showed a longer time for parasite development, lower infection rates, and lower vector efficiency. Additionally, Ae. albopictus was the sole species to exhibit significant parasite-induced mortality. These results are in contrast to prior studies of populations of Ae. albopictus from locations outside of North Carolina, which have implicated the species as a highly competent heartworm vector. The variation seen for different strains of the same species emphasizes the heritable nature of D. immitis vector competence and highlights the need for local infection studies for accurate transmission risk assessment in a particular locale.

Mosquito diversity and dog heartworm prevalence in suburban areas

Background

Urbanization is occurring rapidly on a global scale and is altering mosquito communities, creating assemblages that are characteristically less diverse. Despite high rates of urbanization and ample examples of vector-borne diseases transmitted by multiple species, the effects of urbanization-driven mosquito diversity losses on disease transmission has not been well explored. We investigated this question using the dog heartworm, a filarial parasite vectored by numerous mosquito species.

Methods

We trapped host-seeking mosquitoes in undeveloped areas and neighborhoods of different ages in Wake County, North Carolina, USA, analyzing captured mosquitoes for heartworm DNA. We compared within-mosquito heartworm infection across land-use types by Kruskal–Wallis and likelihood ratio tests. Using zip code level data acquired from dogs in a local shelter, we performed linear regressions of within-host heartworm prevalence by within-mosquito heartworm prevalence as well as by three mosquito diversity measures. We also determined the best predictor of host-level prevalence among models including within-mosquito infection, mosquito diversity and abundance, and socioeconomic status as variables.

Results

Suburban areas had lower within-mosquito heartworm prevalence and lower likelihood of heartworm-positive mosquitoes than did undeveloped field sites, although no differences were seen between suburban and undeveloped wooded sites. No relationships were noted between within-mosquito and within-host heartworm prevalence. However, mosquito diversity metrics were positively correlated with host heartworm prevalence. Model selection revealed within-host prevalence was best predicted by a positive relationship with mosquito Shannon–Wiener diversity and a negative relationship with household income.

Conclusions

Our results demonstrate that decreases in mosquito diversity due to urbanization alter vector-borne disease risk. With regard to dog heartworm disease, this loss of mosquito diversity is associated with decreased heartworm prevalence within both the vector and the host. Although the response is likely different for diseases transmitted by one or few species, mosquito diversity losses leading to decreased transmission could be generalizable to other pathogens with multiple vectors. This study contributes to better understanding of the effects of urbanization and the role of vector diversity in multi-vectored pathosystems.

Limited differentiation among Plasmodium vivax populations from the northwest and to the south Pacific Coast of Colombia: A malaria corridor?

Background

Malaria remains endemic in several countries of South America with low to moderate transmission intensity. Regional human migration through underserved endemic areas may be responsible for significant parasite dispersion making the disease resilient to interventions. Thus, the genetic characterization of malarial parasites is an important tool to assess how endemic areas may connect via the movement of infected individuals. Here, four sites in geographically separated areas reporting 80% of the malaria morbidity in Colombia were studied. The sites are located on an imaginary transect line of 1,500 km from the northwest to the south Pacific Coast of Colombia with a minimal distance of 500 km between populations that display noticeable ethnic, economic, epidemiological, and ecological differences.

Methodology/Principal findings

A total of 624 Plasmodium vivax samples from the four populations were genotyped by using eight microsatellite loci. Although a strong geographic structure was expected between these populations, only moderate evidence of genetic differentiation was observed using a suite of population genetic analyses. High genetic diversity, shared alleles, and low linkage disequilibrium were also found in these P. vivax populations providing no evidence for a bottleneck or clonal expansions as expected from recent reductions in the transmission that could have been the result of scaling up interventions or environmental changes. These patterns are consistent with a disease that is not only endemic in each site but also imply that there is gene flow among these populations across 1,500 km.

Conclusion /Significance

The observed patterns in P. vivax are consistent with a “corridor” where connected endemic areas can sustain a high level of genetic diversity locally and can restore parasite-subdivided populations via migration of infected individuals even after local interventions achieved a substantial reduction of clinical cases. The consequences of these findings in terms of control and elimination are discussed.

The regional movements of infected individuals that connect suitable transmission areas make malaria resilient to control efforts. Those movements are expected to leave genetic signatures in the parasite populations that can be detected using analytical tools. In this study, the genetic makeups of Plasmodium vivax populations were characterized to assess whether the most endemic areas in Colombia were connected. Samples were collected from passive surveillance studies in four locations across an imaginary transect line of 1,500 km from the northwest to the south Pacific Coast of Colombia (South America). Considering the distance, and contrary to expectations, we found weak levels of genetic differentiation between these parasite populations with no evidence indicating that their genetic diversity has been eroded as expected whenever the prevalence of the disease is successfully reduced, e.g., through control programs or environmental changes. Although the sampling lacks the geographic and temporal detail to describe how the dispersion of parasite lineages occurred, the observed patterns are consistent with a series of infected populations that are connected in space by human movements allowing the parasite to diffuse across this 1,500 km transect. This malaria corridor needs to be characterized to achieve elimination.

Behavior and abundance of Anopheles darlingi in communities living in the Colombian Amazon riverside

In the past few years, relative frequencies of malaria parasite species in communities living in the Colombian Amazon riverside have changed, being Plasmodium vivax (61.4%) and Plasmodium malariae (43.8%) the most frequent. Given this epidemiological scenario, it is important to determine the species of anophelines involved in these parasites' transmission. This study was carried out in June 2016 in two indigenous communities living close to the tributaries of the Amazon River using protected human bait. The results of this study showed a total abundance of 1,085 mosquitos, of which 99.2% corresponded to Anopheles darlingi. Additionally, only two anopheline species were found, showing low diversity in the study areas. Molecular confirmation of some individuals was then followed by evolutionary analysis by using the COI gene. Nested PCR was used for identifying the three Plasmodium species circulating in the study areas. Of the two species collected in this study, 21.0% of the An. darlingi mosquitoes were infected with P. malariae, 21.9% with P. vivax and 10.3% with Plasmodium falciparum. It exhibited exophilic and exophagic behavior in both study areas, having marked differences regarding its abundance in each community (Tipisca first sampling 49.4%, Tipisca second sampling 39.6% and Doce de Octubre 10.9%). Interestingly, An. mattogrossensis infected by P. vivax was found for the first time in Colombia (in 50% of the four females collected). Analysis of An. darlingi COI gene diversity indicated a single population maintaining a high gene flow between the study areas. The An. darlingi behavior pattern found in both communities represents a risk factor for the region's inhabitants living/working near these sites. This highlights the need for vector control efforts such as the use of personal repellents and insecticides for use on cattle, which must be made available in order to reduce this Anopheline's abundance.

Anopheles species composition and entomological parameters in malaria endemic localities of North West Colombia

Environmental variations associated with alterations derived from human activities affect mosquito abundance and composition. The objective of this study was to evaluate species abundance, composition, biting behavior and human biting rates for Anopheles specimens collected in localities of an important malaria endemic region in NW Colombia. A total of 2041 specimens belonging to nine species were collected in six malaria endemic localities of the Bajo Cauca region. Anopheles braziliensis was the most abundant species (n = 850, 41.7%) and exhibited the highest human biting rate (64.8 b.p.n), followed by the primary vectors Anopheles nuneztovari (n = 614, 30%) and Anopheles darlingi (n = 368, 18%). Biting activity of the main malaria vectors An. nuneztovari and An. darlingi and the opportunistic species An. braziliensis suggests high biting exposure for humans, mainly from 19:00 h to 23:00 h, and therefore, increased malaria risk at these hours. Regarding mosquito species, Puerto Astilla locality in Nechí municipality exhibited the highest α diversity, but in general, diversity in all localities was low. This information provides the bases for the implementation of targeted and effective vector control interventions directed to reduce human vector-contact.

Modeling Climate Suitability of the Western Blacklegged Tick in California

Ixodes pacificus Cooley & Kohls (Acari: Ixodidae), the primary vector of Lyme disease spirochetes to humans in the far-western United States, is broadly distributed across Pacific Coast states, but its distribution is not uniform within this large, ecologically diverse region. To identify areas of suitable habitat, we assembled records of locations throughout California where two or more I. pacificus were collected from vegetation from 1980 to 2014. We then employed ensemble species distribution modeling to identify suitable climatic conditions for the tick and restricted the results to land cover classes where these ticks are typically encountered (i.e., forest, grass, scrub-shrub, riparian). Cold-season temperature and rainfall are particularly important abiotic drivers of suitability, explaining between 50 and 99% of the spatial variability across California among models. The likelihood of an area being classified as suitable increases steadily with increasing temperatures >0°C during the coldest quarter of the year, and further increases when precipitation amounts range from 400 to 800 mm during the coldest quarter, indicating that areas in California with relatively warm and wet winters typically are most suitable for I. pacificus. Other consistent predictors of suitability include increasing autumn humidity, temperatures in the warmest month between 23 and 33°C, and low-temperature variability throughout the year. The resultant climatic suitability maps indicate that coastal California, especially the northern coast, and the western Sierra Nevada foothills have the highest probability of I. pacificus presence.

Downscaling incidence risk mapping for a Colombian malaria endemic region

OBJECTIVE

To map at a fine spatial scale, the risk of malaria incidence for the important endemic region is Urabá-Bajo Cauca and Alto Sinú, NW Colombia, using a new modelling framework based on GIS and remotely sensed environmental data.

METHODS

The association between environmental and topographic variables obtained from remote sensors and the annual parasite incidence (API) for the years 2013-2015 was calculated using multiple regression analysis; subsequently, a model was constructed to estimate the API and to project it to the entire endemic region in order to design the risk map. The model was validated by relating the obtained API values with the presence of the three main Colombian malaria vectors, Anopheles darlingi, Anopheles albimanus and Anopheles nuneztovari.

RESULTS

Temperature and Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI) showed a significant correlation with the observed API. The risk map of malaria incidence showed that the zones at higher risk in the Urabá-Bajo Cauca and Alto Sinú region were located south-east of the region, while the northern area presented the lowest malaria risk. A method was generated to estimate the API for small urban centres, instead of the used reports at the municipality level.

CONCLUSIONS

These results provide evidence of the utility of risk maps to identify environmentally vulnerable areas at a fine spatial resolution in the Urabá-Bajo Cauca and Alto Sinú region. This information contributes to the implementation of vector control interventions at the microgeographic scale at areas of high malaria risk.

Predicting environmentally suitable areas for Anopheles superpictus Grassi (s.l.), Anopheles maculipennis Meigen (s.l.) and Anopheles sacharovi Favre (Diptera: Culicidae) in Iran

BACKGROUND

Malaria is an important mosquito-borne disease, transmitted to humans by Anopheles mosquitoes. The aim of this study was to gather all records of three main malaria vectors in Iran during the last decades, and to predict the current distribution and the environmental suitability for these species across the country.

METHODS

All published documents on An. superpictus Grassi (s.l.), An. maculipennis Meigen (s.l.) and An. sacharovi Favre during 1970-2016 in Iran were obtained from different online data bases and academic libraries. A database was created in ArcMap 10.3. Ecology of these species was analyzed and the ecological niches were predicted using MaxEnt model.

RESULTS

Anopheles superpictus (s.l.) is the most widespread malaria vector in Iran, and exists in both malaria endemic and non-endemic areas. Whereas An. maculipennis (s.l.) is reported from the northern and northwestern parts, Anopheles sacharovi is mostly found in the northwestern Iran, although there are some reports of this species in the western, southwestern and eastern parts. The area under receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) for training and testing data was calculated as 0.869 and 0.828, 0.939 and 0.915, and 0.921 and 0.979, for An. superpictus (s.l.), An. maculipennis (s.l.) and An. sacharovi, respectively. Jackknife test showed the environmental variable with highest gain in the predicting power of the model when used in isolation was annual precipitation for An. superpictus (s.l.) and An. maculipennis (s.l.), and precipitation of the driest quarter for An. sacharovi.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite this range, global warming may increase the potential risk for malaria transmission in some cleared-up areas, where these proven vectors are active. Mapping and prediction of spatial/temporal distribution of these vectors will be beneficial for decision makers to be aware of malaria transmission risk, especially in the western parts of the country.

Predicting the potential distribution of main malaria vectors Anopheles stephensi, An. culicifacies s.l. and An. fluviatilis s.l. in Iran based on maximum entropy model

Malaria is considered as a major public health problem in southern areas of Iran. The goal of this study was to predict best ecological niches of three main malaria vectors of Iran: Anopheles stephensi, Anopheles culicifacies s.l. and Anopheles fluviatilis s.l. A databank was created which included all published data about Anopheles species of Iran from 1961 to 2015. The suitable environmental niches for the three above mentioned Anopheles species were predicted using maximum entropy model (MaxEnt). AUC (area under Roc curve) values were 0.943, 0.974 and 0.956 for An. stephensi, An. culicifacies s.l. and An. fluviatilis s.l respectively, which are considered as high potential power of model in the prediction of species niches. The biggest bioclimatic contributor for An. stephensi and An. fluviatilis s.l. was bio 15 (precipitation seasonality), 25.5% and 36.1% respectively, followed by bio 1 (annual mean temperature), 20.8% for An. stephensi and bio 4 (temperature seasonality) with 49.4% contribution for An. culicifacies s.l. This is the first step in the mapping of the country's malaria vectors. Hence, future weather situation can change the dispersal maps of Anopheles. Iran is under elimination phase of malaria, so that such spatio-temporal studies are essential and could provide guideline for decision makers for IVM strategies in problematic areas.