Prognostic markers of acute decompensated heart failure: the emerging roles of cardiac biomarkers and prognostic scores

Analysis of the Larissa Heart Failure Risk Score: Predictive Value in 9207 Patients Hospitalized for Heart Failure from a Single Center

Early risk stratification is of outmost clinical importance in hospitalized patients with heart failure (HHF). We examined the predictive value of the Larissa Heart Failure Risk Score (LHFRS) in a large population of HHF patients from the Cleveland Clinic. A total of 13,309 admissions for heart failure (HF) from 9207 unique patients were extracted from the Cleveland Clinic's electronic health record system. For each admission, components of the 3-variable simple LHFRS were obtained, including hypertension history, myocardial infarction history, and red blood cell distribution width (RDW) ≥ 15%. The primary outcome was a HF readmission and/or all-cause mortality at one year, and the secondary outcome was all-cause mortality at one year of discharge. For both outcomes, all variables were statistically significant, and the Kaplan-Meier curves were well-separated and in a consistent order (Log-rank test p-value < 0.001). Higher LHFRS values were found to be strongly related to patients experiencing an event, showing a clear association of LHFRS with this study outcomes. The bootstrapped-validated area under the curve (AUC) for the logistic regression model for each outcome revealed a C-index of 0.64 both for the primary and secondary outcomes, respectively. LHFRS is a simple risk model and can be utilized as a basis for risk stratification in patients hospitalized for HF.

Relative Values of Hematological Indices for Prognosis of Heart Failure: A Mini-Review

Owing to the augmented perception of heart failure (HF) pathophysiology, management of the affected patients has been improved dramatically; as with the identification of the inflammatory background of HF, new avenues of HF prognosis research have been opened up. In this regard, relative values of hematologic indices were demonstrated by a growing body of evidence to successfully predict HF outcomes. Cost-effectiveness, accessibility, and easy obtainability of these relative values make them a precious option for the determination of HF prognosis; particularly in low-income developing countries. In this short review, we aimed to present the current literature on the predictability of these hematologic parameters for HF outcomes.

Validation and derivation of short-term prognostic risk score in acute decompensated heart failure in China

Background

Few prognostic risk scores (PRSs) have been routinely used in acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF). We, therefore, externally validated three published PRSs (3A3B, AHEAD, and OPTIME-CHF) and derived a new PRS to predict the short-term prognosis in ADHF.

Methods

A total of 4550 patients from the Heb-ADHF registry in China were randomly divided into the derivation and validation cohorts (3:2). Discrimination of each PRS was assessed by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). Logistic regression was exploited to select the predictors and create the new PRS. The Hosmer–Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test was used to assess the calibration of the new PRS.

Results

The AUROCs of the 3A3B, AHEAD, and OPTIME-CHF score in the derivation cohort were 0.55 (95% CI 0.53–0.57), 0.54 (95% CI 0.53–0.56), and 0.56 (95% CI 0.54–0.57), respectively. After logistic regression analysis, the new PRS computed as 1 × (diastolic blood pressure < 80 mmHg) + 2 × (lymphocyte > 1.11 × 10⁹/L) + 1 × (creatinine > 80 μmol/L) + 2 × (blood urea nitrogen > 21 mg/dL) + 1 × [BNP 500 to < 1500 pg/mL (NT-proBNP 2500 to < 7500 pg/mL)] or 3 × [BNP ≥ 1500 (NT-proBNP ≥ 7500) pg/mL] + 3 × (QRS fraction of electrocardiogram < 55%) + 4 × (ACEI/ARB not used) + 1 × (rhBNP used), with a better AUROC of 0.67 (95% CI 0.64–0.70) and a good calibration (Hosmer–Lemeshow χ² = 3.366, P = 0.186). The results in validation cohort verified these findings.

Conclusions

The short-term prognostic values of 3A3B, AHEAD, and OPTIME-CHF score in ADHF patients were all poor, while the new PRS exhibited potential predictive ability. We demonstrated the QRS fraction of electrocardiogram as a novel predictor for the short-term outcomes of ADHF for the first time. Our findings might help to recognize high-risk ADHF patients.

Characteristics and outcomes of patients admitted for acute heart failure in a single-centre study

Aims

Acute heart failure represents a medical condition with very high mortality. Accurate risk stratification can help physicians to improve the health care about these patients. The aim of our study was to characterize real‐life patients admitted for acute heart failure in a specific region with one tertiary medical centre and to describe risk factors of short‐term and long‐term mortality.

Methods and results

We performed a retrospective analysis of patients admitted from January 2017 to December 2017 to Department of cardiology of the tertiary medical centre University Hospital in Hradec Kralove. We identified 385 patients admitted for acute heart failure to the standard care and intensive care unit. The median of age was 74 years (IQR 67.5–80) and 34% of patients were female. Hospital admission was due to de novo heart failure in 222 (57.7%) patients. The most common comorbidities were arterial hypertension (77.7%), dyslipidaemia (67.3%) and coronary artery disease (63.1%). Coronary artery disease (52.7% of cases) and valve disease (28.1% of cases) were the most common aetiologies of heart failure. The all‐cause in‐hospital mortality was 12.7%, 30‐day mortality was 14.6% and 1 year mortality was 34%. Among risk factors of in‐hospital mortality, the most significant factors were haemodialysis during the hospitalization [odds ratio (OR) 15.82, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.96–84.57, P = 0.0008], chronic heart failure (OR 4.27, 95% CI 1.66–11.03, P = 0.001) and STEMI as a precipitating factor of heart failure (OR 4.19, 95% CI 1.23–14.25, P = 0.023). Haemodialysis during the hospitalization (OR 4.28, 95% CI 1.17–15.61, P = 0.025) and the comorbidity depression and anxiety (OR 3.49, 95% CI 1.45–8.39, P = 0.005) were the most significant risk factors of long‐term mortality.

Conclusions

Our study confirms very high mortality rates among patients with acute heart failure underlying poor prognosis of these patients. Comorbidities (peripheral artery disease, atrial fibrillation, chronic heart failure and depression and anxiety), precipitating factors of heart failure (myocardial infarction with ST segment elevation), complications occurring during the hospitalization (acute kidney injury, pulmonary ventilation for respiratory failure and haemodialysis) and the age of patients should be included in the risk stratification of in‐hospital, 30 day and 1 year mortality.

Angiopoietin 1 release from human neutrophils is independent from neutrophil extracellular traps (NETs)

Background

Neutrophils induce the synthesis and release of angiopoietin 1 (Ang1), a cytosolic growth factor involved in angiogenesis and capable of inducing several pro-inflammatory activities in neutrophils. Neutrophils also synthesize and release neutrophil extracellular traps (NETs), comprised from decondensed nuclear DNA filaments carrying proteins such as neutrophil elastase (NE), myeloperoxidase (MPO), proteinase 3 (PR3) and calprotectin (S100A8/S100A9), which together, contribute to the innate immune response against pathogens (e.g., bacteria). NETs are involved in various pathological conditions through pro-inflammatory, pro-thrombotic and endothelial dysfunction effects and have recently been found in heart failure (HF) and type 2 diabetes (T2DM) patients. The aim of the present study was to investigate the role of NETs on the synthesis and release of Ang1 by the neutrophils in patients with T2DM and HF with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) (stable or acute decompensated; ADHFpEF) with or without T2DM.

Results

Our data show that at basal level (PBS) and upon treatment with LPS, levels of NETs are slightly increased in patients suffering from T2DM, HFpEF ± T2DM and ADHF without (w/o) T2DM, whereas this increase was significant in ADHFpEF + T2DM patients compared to healthy control (HC) volunteers and ADHFpEF w/o T2DM. We also observed that treatments with PMA or A23187 increase the synthesis of Ang1 (from 150 to 250%) in HC and this effect is amplified in T2DM and in all cohorts of HF patients. Ang1 is completely released (100%) by neutrophils of all groups and does not bind to NETs as opposed to calprotectin.

Conclusions

Our study suggests that severely ill patients with HFpEF and diabetes synthesize and release a greater abundance of NETs while Ang1 exocytosis is independent of NETs synthesis.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12865-021-00442-8.

Routine use of natriuretic peptides: Lessons from a big data analysis

BACKGROUND

Natriuretic peptides have broad indications during heart failure and the detection of left ventricular dysfunction in high-risk patients. They can also be used for the diagnosis/management of other cardiac diseases. However, very little is known regarding their use in routine practice.

METHODS

We examined all biological tests performed from February 2010 to August 2015 in two districts from the French Brittany, covering 13,653 km² and including 22,265 physicians. We report the settings and conditions of N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) measurements (the only locally natriuretic peptide available).

RESULTS

From a total of 3,606,432 tests requested in 557,650 adult (older than 20 years) patients, only 56,653 (1.6%) included at least one NT-proBNP measurement. NT-proBNP measurements gradually increased, from 9188 in 2011 to 12,938 in 2014 (P < 0.001). Most NT-proBNP tests were measured in urban laboratories (72.7%) and in private (62.9%) non-hospital/clinics laboratories; they were mostly ordered by general practitioners (66% compared with 11% by cardiologists). The number of NT-proBNP measurements increased with age up to 80-90 years, and 70.3% of tests were measured in ≥75 years patients. Creatinine and electrolytes were not associated with NT-proBNP in 15.8% and 19.7% of tests, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Among a very large cohort, we observed that natriuretic peptides remain largely undermeasured. NT-proBNP is mostly measured in elderly patients, and its interpretation may be hazardous in up to 16% of all individuals because no measurement of creatinine was associated to NT-proBNP.

Acute Hemodynamic Index Predicts In-Hospital Mortality in Acute Decompensated Heart Failure

Fundamento

O exame físico permite a avaliação prognóstica de pacientes com insuficiência cardíaca (IC) descompensada, porém não é suficientemente confiável e depende da experiência clínica do profissional. Considerando as respostas hemodinâmicas a situações do tipo “luta ou fuga” tais como a admissão no serviço de emergência, foi proposto o índice hemodinâmico agudo (IHA), calculado a partir da frequência cardíaca e pressão de pulso.

Objetivo

avaliar a capacidade prognóstica intra-hospitalar do IHA na IC descompensada.

Métodos

estudo prospectivo, multicêntrico e observacional baseado no registro BREATHE, incluindo dados de hospitais públicos e privados no Brasil. Foram utilizadas análises ROC ( Receiver Operating Characteristic ), de estatística c e de regressão multivariada, assim como o critério de informação de Akaike, para testar a capacidade prognóstica do IHA. O valor-p < 0,05 foi considerado estatisticamente significativo.

Resultados

Foram analisados dados de 463 pacientes com IC com fração de ejeção reduzida a partir do registro BREATHE. A mortalidade intra-hospitalar foi de 9%. A mediana do IHA foi considerada o valor de corte (4 mmHg⋅bpm). Um baixo IHA (≤ 4 mmHg⋅bpm) foi encontrado em 80% dos pacientes falecidos. O risco de mortalidade intra-hospitalar em pacientes com baixo IHA foi 2,5 vezes maior que aquele para pacientes com IHA > 4 mmHg⋅bpm. O IHA foi capaz de predizer independentemente a mortalidade intra-hospitalar na IC aguda descompensada [sensibilidade: 0,786; especificidade: 0,429; AUC (área sob a curva): 0,607 (0,540-0,674), p = 0,010] mesmo depois dos ajustes para comorbidades e uso de medicamentos [razão de chances (RC): 0,061 (0,007-0,114), p = 0,025].

Conclusões

O IHA é capaz de predizer independentemente a mortalidade intra-hospitalar na IC aguda descompensada. Esse índice simples e realizado à beira do leito pode se mostrar útil em serviços de emergência. (Arq Bras Cardiol. 2021; 116(1):77-86)

Validation of the Larissa Heart Failure Risk Score for risk stratification in acute heart failure

BACKGROUND

The LHFRS is a simple score derived from three factors (history of hypertension, history of coronary artery disease/myocardial infarction, and red blood cell distribution width) deployed for the risk stratification of AHF in Greek population. This study aimed to validate the Larissa Heart Failure Risk Score (LHFRS) in patients with acute heart failure (AHF) in a Japanese population.

METHODS

We performed post-hoc analysis of 1670 consecutive patients enrolled in the REALITY-AHF. In all, 964 patients were finally enrolled. Exclusion criteria included patients with anemia, malignancies and sepsis. The primary outcome was defined as a composite of all-cause mortality and/or heart failure readmission, and the secondary outcome was defined as all-cause mortality.

RESULTS

The median admission LHFRS value was 1 (interquartile range [IQR]: 0-2). During a median follow-up of 365 (IQR: 161-365) days, the primary and secondary outcomes were observed in 321 and 157 patients, respectively. LHFRS was an independent predictor of both the primary (adjusted hazard ratio per 1-point increase, 95% confidence interval: 1.17 [1.04-1.32], p = 0.011), and the secondary outcomes (1.31 [1.12-1.55], p = 0.001). Patients with higher LHFRS scores (≥2) exhibited significantly worse outcomes than those with lower scores (<2) both for the primary outcome (1.40 [1.07-1.83], p = 0.014) and the secondary outcome (1.60 [1.09-2.34], p = 0.015). Additionally, LHFRS revealed an excellent goodness of fit (observed versus predicted outcomes) for predicting both the primary and the secondary outcomes (p > 0.99 and p = 0.99, respectively).

CONCLUSION

The simple LHFRS was proved as a reliable predictor of outcomes in patients with AHF.

Impact of Hospital Practice Factors on Mortality in Patients Hospitalized for Heart Failure in Japan - An Analysis of a Large Number of Health Records From a Nationwide Claims-Based Database, the JROAD-DPC

BACKGROUND

An inverse relationship exists between hospital case volume and mortality in patients with heart failure (HF). However, hospital performance factors associated with mortality in HF patients have not been examined. We aimed to identify these using exploratory factor analysis and assess the relationship between these factors and 7-day, 30-day, and in-hospital mortality among HF patients in Japan.Methods and Results:We analyzed the records of 198,861 patients admitted to 683 certified hospitals of the Japanese Circulation Society between 2012 and 2014. Records were obtained from the nationwide database of the Japanese Registry Of All cardiac and vascular Diseases-Diagnostic Procedure Combination (JROAD-DPC). Using exploratory factor analysis, 90 hospital survey items were grouped into 5 factors, according to their collinearity: "Interventional cardiology", "Cardiovascular surgery", "Pediatric cardiology", "Electrophysiology" and "Cardiac rehabilitation". Multivariable logistic regression analysis was performed to determine the association between these factors and mortality. The 30-day mortality was 8.0%. Multivariable logistic regression analysis showed the "Pediatric cardiology" (odds ratio (OR) 0.677, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.628-0.729, P<0.0001), "Electrophysiology" (OR 0.876, 95% CI: 0.832-0.923, P<0.0001), and "Cardiac rehabilitation" (OR 0.832, 95% CI: 0.792-0.873, P<0.0001) factors were associated with lower mortality. In contrast, "Interventional cardiology" (OR 1.167, 95% CI: 1.070-1.272, P<0.0001) was associated with higher mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Hospital factors, including various cardiovascular therapeutic practices, may be associated with the early death of HF patients.

The prognosis of patients hospitalized with a first episode of heart failure, validation of two scores: PREDICE and AHEAD

Purpose

Heart failure (HF) is a chronic, frequent and disabling condition but with a modifiable course and a large potential for improving. The aim of this study was to validate the two available clinical prediction rules for mortality at one year in patients with primo-hospitalization for decompensated HF: PREDICE and AHEAD. The secondary aim was to evaluate in our setting the changes in the clinical pattern of HF in the last decade in patients hospitalized for a first episode of the disease.

Patients and methods

A prospective multicenter cohort study, which included 180 patients hospitalized with “de novo” HF was conducted to validate the PREDICE score. Calibration and discrimination measurements were calculated for the PREDICE model and the PREDICE score (using the validation cohort of the PREDICE) and the AHEAD score (using both the development and the validation cohort of the PREDICE).

Results

For the PREDICE models, the area under the curve (AUC) was 0.68 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.57–0.79) and the calibration slope 0.65 (95% CI: 0.21–1.20). For the PREDICE score AUC was 0.59 (95% CI: 0.47–0.71) and slope 0.42 (95% CI: −0.20–1.17). For the AHEAD score the AUC was 0.68 (95% CI: 0.62–0.73) and slope 1.38 (95% CI: 0.62–0.73) when used the development cohort of PREDICE and the AUC was 0.58 (95% CI: 0.49–0.67), and slope 0.68 (95% CI: −0.06 to 1.47) when used its validation cohort.

Conclusion

The present study shows that the two risk scores available for patients with primo-hospitalization for decompensated HF (PREDICE and AHEAD) are not currently valid for predicting mortality at one-year. In our setting the clinical spectrum of hospitalized patients with new-onset HF has been modified over time. The study underscores the need to validate the prognostic models before clinical implementation.

Bioactive adrenomedullin, proenkephalin A and clinical outcomes in an acute heart failure setting

Objectives

In an acute heart failure (AHF) setting, proenkephalin A 119–159 (penKid) has emerged as a promising prognostic marker for predicting worsening renal function (WRF), while bioactive adrenomedullin (bio-ADM) has been proposed as a potential marker for congestion. We examined the diagnostic value of bio-ADM in congestion and penKid in WRF and investigated the prognostic value of bio-ADM and penKid regarding mortality, rehospitalisation and length of hospital stay in two separate European AHF cohorts.

Methods

Bio-ADM and penKid were measured in 530 subjects hospitalised for AHF in two cohorts: Swedish HeArt and bRain failure inVESTigation trial (HARVEST-Malmö) (n=322, 30.1% female; mean age 75.1+11.1 years; 12 months follow-up) and Italian GREAT Network Rome study (n=208, 54.8% female; mean age 78.5+9.9 years; no follow-up available).

Results

PenKid was associated with WRF (area under the curve (AUC) 0.65, p<0.001). In multivariable logistic regression analysis of the pooled cohort, penKid showed an independent association with WRF (adjusted OR (aOR) 1.74, p=0.004). Bio-ADM was associated with peripheral oedema (AUC 0.71, p<0.001), which proved to be independent after adjustment (aOR 2.30, p<0.001). PenKid was predictive of in-hospital mortality (OR 2.24, p<0.001). In HARVEST-Malmö, both penKid and bio-ADM were predictive of 1-year mortality (aOR 1.34, p=0.038 and aOR 1.39, p=0.030). Furthermore, bio-ADM was associated with rehospitalisation (aOR 1.25, p=0.007) and length of hospital stay (β=0.702, p=0.005).

Conclusion

In two different European AHF cohorts, bio-ADM and penKid perform as suitable biomarkers for early detection of congestion severity and WRF occurrence, respectively, and are associated with pertinent clinical outcomes.

Placenta growth factor and sFlt-1 as biomarkers in ischemic heart disease and heart failure: a review

Coronary heart disease (CHD) and heart failure (HF) produce significant morbidity/mortality but identifying new biomarkers could help in the management of each. In this article, we summarize the molecular regulation and biomarker potential of PIGF and sFlt-1 in CHD and HF. PlGF is elevated during ischemia and some studies have shown PlGF, sFlt-1 or PlGF:sFlt-1 ratio, when used in combination with standard biomarkers, strengthens predictions of outcomes. sFlt-1 and PlGF are elevated in HF with sFlt-1 as a stronger predictor of outcomes. Although promising, we discuss additional study criteria needed to confirm the clinical usefulness of PlGF or sFlt-1 in the detection and management of CHD or HF.

Cancer antigen-125 and outcomes in acute heart failure: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background

Carbohydrate antigen-125 (CA125) is an ovarian cancer marker, but recent work has examined its role in risk stratification in heart failure. A recent meta-analysis examined its prognostic value in heart failure generally. However, there has been no systematic evaluation of its role specifically in acute heart failure (AHF).

Methods

PubMed and EMBASE databases were searched until 11 May 2018 for studies that evaluated the prognostic value of CA125 in AHF.

Results

A total of 129 and 179 entries were retrieved from PubMed and EMBASE. Sixteen studies (15 cohort studies, 1 randomised trial) including 8401 subjects with AHF (mean age 71 years old, 52% male, mean follow-up 13 months, range of patients 525.1±598.2) were included. High CA125 levels were associated with a 68% increase in all-cause mortality (8 studies, HRs: 1.68, 95% CI 1.36 to 2.07; p<0.0001; I²: 74%) and 77% increase in heart failure-related readmissions (5 studies, HRs: 1.77, 95% CI 1.22 to 2.59; p<0.01; I²: 73%). CA125 levels were higher in patients with fluid overload symptoms and signs compared with those without them, with a mean difference of 54.8 U/mL (5 studies, SE: 13.2 U/mL; p<0.0001; I²: 78%).

Conclusion

Our meta-analysis found that high CA125 levels are associated with AHF symptoms, heart failure-related hospital readmissions and all-cause mortality. Therefore, CA125 emerges as a useful risk stratification tool for identifying high-risk patients with more severe fluid overload, as well as for monitoring following an AHF episode.

Prognostic value of homocysteine and highly sensitive cardiac troponin T in children with acute heart failure

OBJECTIVE

Heart failure (HF) is a progressive disorder in children. Many HF biomarkers have been identified to assess its severity and predict its course. The aim of this study was to evaluate the prognostic value of plasma levels of homocysteine (HCY) and highly sensitive cardiac troponin T (hs-cTnT) in children with HF.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Eighty children with acute HF were enrolled in this study as the patient group and 80 healthy children of matched age and sex served as the control group. HCY and hs-cTnT serum levels were measured before and after HF treatment; additionally, echocardiographic examinations were performed before and after therapy. All patients were followed up for 3 months.

RESULTS

Plasma levels of HCY and hs-cTnT were significantly higher in children with HF before treatment, compared with their levels in children with HF after treatment and with the control group. This increase in serum levels of both biomarkers was associated with increased severity of HF according to the Ross classification of HF. HCY had higher specificity, positive predictive value, and accuracy than hs-cTnT. Serum levels of both biomarkers had a significant positive correlation with cardiomegaly and a significant negative correlation with left ventricular ejection fraction and fraction shortening. Marked elevation of both serum biomarkers was significantly associated with poor outcome with mortality rate of 10%.

CONCLUSION

Plasma HCY and serum hs-cTnT levels have a good prognostic value in children with congestive heart failure (CHF) and their levels significantly correlated with clinical and echocardiographic data, severity of HF, and adverse outcome in children with CHF.

Circulating Biomarkers in Heart Failure

Biological markers have served for diagnosis, risk stratification and guided therapy of heart failure (HF). Our knowledge regarding abilities of biomarkers to relate to several pathways of HF pathogenesis and reflect clinical worsening or improvement in the disease is steadily expanding. Although there are numerous clinical guidelines, which clearly diagnosis, prevention and evidence-based treatment of HF, a strategy regarding exclusion of HF, as well as risk stratification of HF, nature evolution of disease is not well established and requires more development. The aim of the chapter is to discuss a role of biomarker-based approaches for more accurate diagnosis, in-depth risk stratification and individual targeting in treatment of patients with HF.

Proenkephalin, Renal Dysfunction, and Prognosis in Patients With Acute Heart Failure: A GREAT Network Study

BACKGROUND

Proenkephalin A (PENK) and its receptors are widely distributed. Enkephalins are cardiodepressive and difficult to measure directly. PENK is a stable surrogate analyte of labile enkephalins that is correlated inversely with renal function. Cardiorenal syndrome is common in acute heart failure (HF) and portends poor prognosis.

OBJECTIVES

This study assessed the prognostic value of PENK in acute HF, by identifying levels that may be useful in clinical decisions, and evaluated its utility for predicting cardiorenal syndrome.

METHODS

This multicenter study measured PENK in 1,908 patients with acute HF (1,186 male; mean age 75.66 ± 11.74 years). The primary endpoint was 1-year all-cause mortality; secondary endpoints were in-hospital mortality, all-cause mortality or HF rehospitalization within 1 year, and in-hospital worsening renal function, defined as a rise in plasma creatinine ≥26.5 μmol/l or 50% higher than the admission value within 5 days of presentation.

RESULTS

During 1-year follow-up, 518 patients died. Measures of renal function were the major determinants of PENK levels. PENK independently predicted worsening renal function (odds ratio: 1.58; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.24 to 2.00; p < 0.0005) with a model receiver-operating characteristic area of 0.69. PENK was associated with the degree of worsening renal function. Multivariable Cox regression models showed that PENK level was an independent predictor of 1-year mortality (p < 0.0005) and 1-year death and/or HF (hazard ratio: 1.27; 95% CI: 1.10 to 1.45; p = 0.001). PENK levels independently predicted outcomes at 3 or 6 months and were independent predictors of in-hospital mortality, predominantly down-classifying risk in survivors when added to clinical scores; levels <133.3 pmol/l and >211.3 pmol/l detected low-risk and high-risk patients, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

PENK levels reflect cardiorenal status in acute HF and are prognostic for worsening renal function and in-hospital mortality as well as mortality during follow-up.

Acute Heart Failure Registry: Risk Assessment Model in Decompensated Heart Failure

Background

Heart failure (HF) is a highly prevalent syndrome. Although the long-term prognostic factors have been identified in chronic HF, this information is scarcer with respect to patients with acute HF. despite available data in the literature on long-term prognostic factors in chronic HF, data on acute HF patients are more scarce.

Objectives

To develop a predictor of unfavorable prognostic events in patients hospitalized for acute HF syndromes, and to characterize a group at higher risk regarding their clinical characteristics, treatment and outcomes.

Methods

cohort study of 600 patients admitted for acute HF, defined according to the European Society of Cardiology criteria. Primary endpoint for score derivation was defined as all-cause mortality and / or rehospitalization for HF at 12 months. For score validation, the following endpoints were used: all-cause mortality and / or readmission for HF at 6, 12 and 24 months. The exclusion criteria were: high output HF; patients with acute myocardial infraction, acute myocarditis, infectious endocarditis, pulmonary infection, pulmonary artery hypertension and severe mitral stenosis.

Results

505 patients were included, and prognostic predicting factors at 12 months were identified. One or two points were assigned according to the odds ratio (OR) obtained (p < 0.05). After the total score value was determined, a 4-point cut-off was determined for each ROC curve at 12 months. Two groups were formed according to the number of points, group A < 4 points, and group B = 4 points. Group B was composed of older patients, with higher number of comorbidities and predictors of the combined endpoint at 6, 12 and 24 months, as linearly represented in the survival curves (Log rank).

Conclusions

This risk score enabled the identification of a group with worse prognosis at 12 months.

Circulating miR-30d Predicts Survival in Patients with Acute Heart Failure

BACKGROUND/AIMS

Identification of novel biomarkers to identify acute heart failure (AHF) patients at high risk of mortality is an area of unmet clinical need. Recently, we reported that the baseline level of circulating miR-30d was associated with left ventricular remodeling in response to cardiac resynchronization therapy in advanced chronic heart failure patients. However, the role of circulating miR-30d as a prognostic marker of survival in patients with AHF has not been explored.

METHODS

Patients clinically diagnosed with AHF were enrolled and followed up for 1 year. Quantitative reverse transcription polymerase chain reactions were used to determine serum miR-30d levels. The univariate logistic regression analysis and multivariate logistic regression analysis were used to determine the predictors for all-cause mortality in AHF patients. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis was used to analyze the role of miR-30d in prediction of survival.

RESULTS

A total of 96 AHF patients were enrolled and followed up for 1 year. Serum miR-30d was significantly lower in AHF patients who expired in the one year follow-up period compared to those who survived. Univariate logistic regression analysis yielded 18 variables that were associated with all-cause mortality in AHF patients, while the multivariate logistic regression analysis identified 4 variables including heart rate, hemoglobin, serum sodium, and serum miR-30d level associated with mortality. ROC curve analysis showed that hemoglobin, heart rate and serum sodium displayed poor prognostic value for AHF (AUCs not higher than 0.700) compared to miR-30d level (AUC = 0.806). Kaplan-Meier survival analysis confirmed that patients with higher serum miR-30d levels had significantly lower mortality (P=0.001).

CONCLUSION

In conclusion, this study shows evidence for the predictive value of circulating miR-30d as 1-year all-cause mortality in AHF patients. Large multicentre studies are further needed to validate our findings and accelerate the transition to clinical utilization.

Diagnostic and Prognostic Value of Plasma Levels of Cardiac Myosin Binding Protein-C as a Novel Biomarker in Heart Failure

Heart failure (HF) has high morbidity and mortality in children. This study aimed to investigate the value of cardiac myosin binding protein-C (cMyBP-C) as a diagnostic and prognostic biomarker in children with heart failure. This study was a prospective case-control study that involved 50 children with acute HF and 25 healthy children of matched age and sex as a control group. cMyBP-C plasma levels were measured in patients with HF at the time of admission and 1 month after treatment. Echocardiographic assessment was done for all children. All patients were followed up for a period of 3 months. There was a significant increase in plasma levels of cMyBP-C (ng/ml) in patients with HF at admission (122.44 ± 41.01) as compared to patients after treatment (71.38 ± 49.68) and to control group (24.40 ± 9.83). This increase was associated with increased severity of HF according to pediatric Ross classification of HF. Significant increase in plasma levels of cMyBP-C at admission and its persistent increase after treatment were associated with adverse outcome of mortality and readmission. Plasma levels of cMyBP-C were significantly correlated with echocardiographic and clinical assessment of heart failure. Plasma levels of cMyBP-C were a good biomarker for diagnosis of HF with sensitivity 100% and specificity 96% at cutoff point of 45 ng/ml. Its value in predicting adverse outcome in HF patients was obtained by ROC curve with sensitivity of 90% and specificity 93% at a cutoff point of 152 ng/ml cMyBP-C at admission. cMyBP-C may be a novel useful diagnostic and prognostic biomarker in children with heart failure and determination of severity of HF in these patients.

Predictors of Post-discharge Mortality Among Patients Hospitalized for Acute Heart Failure

Acute Heart Failure (AHF) is a " multi-event disease" and hospitalisation is a critical event in the clinical course of HF. Despite relatively rapid relief of symptoms, hospitalisation for AHF is followed by an increased risk of death and re-hospitalisation. In AHF, risk stratification from clinically available data is increasingly important in evaluating long-term prognosis. From the perspective of patients, information on the risk of mortality and re-hospitalisation would be helpful in providing patients with insight into their disease. From the perspective of care providers, it may facilitate management decisions, such as who needs to be admitted and to what level of care (i.e. floor, step-down, ICU). Furthermore, risk-stratification may help identify patients who need to be evaluated for advanced HF therapies (i.e. left-ventricle assistance device or transplant or palliative care), and patients who need early a post-discharge follow-up plan. Finally, risk stratification will allow for more robust efforts to identify among risk markers the true targets for therapies that may direct treatment strategies to selected high-risk patients. Further clinical research will be needed to evaluate if appropriate risk stratification of patients could improve clinical outcome and resources allocation.

Admission inferior vena cava measurements are associated with mortality after hospitalization for acute decompensated heart failure

BACKGROUND

Prognostication of patients hospitalized with acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF) is important to patients, providers, and healthcare systems. Few bedside tools exist to prognosticate patients hospitalized with ADHF.

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this study was to assess the relationship between inferior vena cava (IVC) diameter and postdischarge mortality in patients hospitalized with ADHF.

DESIGN

Prospective observational study.

SETTING

A 247-bed urban teaching hospital in Spain PATIENTS: Ninety-seven patients hospitalized with ADHF.

INTERVENTION

None.

MEASUREMENTS

The IVC diameter and collapsibility were measured by a hospitalist at the time of admission and discharge. Primary outcome was 90-day all-cause mortality. Secondary outcomes were readmission rates at 90 and 180 days, and 180-day all-cause mortality. Patients were followed for 180 days.

RESULTS

Data from 80 patients were analyzed. From admission to discharge, a significant improvement in IVC maximum (IVC_max ) diameter (2.12 vs 1.87 cm; P < 0.001) and IVC collapsibility (25.7% vs 33.1%; P < 0.001) was seen in the total study cohort. During the 90-day follow-up period, 11 patients (13.7%) died. An admission IVC_max diameter ≥1.9 cm was associated with a higher mortality rate at 90 days (25.4% vs 3.4%; P = 0.009) and 180 days (29.3% vs 3.4%; P = .003). In a multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression analysis, admission IVC_max diameter was an independent predictor of 90-day mortality (hazard ratio [HR]: 5.88; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.21-28.10; P = 0.025) and 90-day readmission (HR: 3.20; 95% CI: 1.24-8.21; P = 0.016).

CONCLUSION

In patients hospitalized with acute decompensated heart failure, a dilated IVC by bedside ultrasound at the time of admission is associated with a higher 90-day mortality after hospitalization. Journal of Hospital Medicine 2016;11:778-784. © 2016 Society of Hospital Medicine.

[Optimization of the management of acute heart failure. New concept of fast-track]

The acute heart failure generates a very important number of hospitalizations for a high cost. A recent reflection on optimizing its management is ongoing, based on the fastest management in the emergency department, with a distinction between which patient should remain and who returns at home, and under what conditions, allowing to limit the number of hospitalizations. It will require a reorganization of emergency department and updating of decision algorithms and new guidelines of care.

Predicting mortality in patients with acute heart failure: Role of risk scores

Acute heart failure is a leading cause of hospitalization and death, and it is an increasing burden on health care systems. The correct risk stratification of patients could improve clinical outcome and resources allocation, avoiding the overtreatment of low-risk subjects or the early, inappropriate discharge of high-risk patients. Many clinical scores have been derived and validated for in-hospital and post-discharge survival; predictive models include demographic, clinical, hemodynamic and laboratory variables. Data sets are derived from public registries, clinical trials, and retrospective data. Most models show a good capacity to discriminate patients who reach major clinical end-points, with C-indices generally higher than 0.70, but their applicability in real-world populations has been seldom evaluated. No study has evaluated if the use of risk score-based stratification might improve patient outcome. Some variables (age, blood pressure, sodium concentration, renal function) recur in most scores and should always be considered when evaluating the risk of an individual patient hospitalized for acute heart failure. Future studies will evaluate the emerging role of plasma biomarkers.