Post-disturbance recovery of forest carbon in a temperate forest landscape under climate change

Relationship of selected properties of Cambisols to altitude and forest ecosystems of four vegetation grades

Currently, little is known about the spatial variability of significant soil properties and their relationships to forest ecosystems of different vegetation grades. This work evaluates the variability of the properties of the upper layer of Cambisol taxa and their relationship to altitude and forest ecosystems of 2nd to 5th forest vegetation grades selected in the Western Carpathians using PCA and regression analysis. The content of clay, total carbon and total nitrogen, humus, energy, and ash in the soils varied between 5.43 and 11.53 %, 21-65 mg g-1, 1.9-4.7 mg g-1, 36-112 mg g-1, 438.4-5845.7 J g-1 and 852.9-946.3 mg g-1, and C/N, pHH2O, and pHKCl values ranged between 11.2 and 16.7, 4.0-5.8 and 3.1-4.6. PCA showed that EAC in the 3rd oak-beech vegetation grade had significantly higher pH values and significantly lower energy content, ESC in the 4th beech vegetation grade had a significantly higher ash content and a significantly lower energy content, and DC in the 5th fir-beech vegetation grade had a significantly higher content of Ct, Nt, and humus. Linear regression revealed a strong negative correlation between the energy content and soil reaction (R2 for pHH2O = 0.48; R2 for pHKCl = 0.38) for all Cambisol taxa. Ct content and ash show a strong negative correlation (R2 = 0.78). The positive relationship between altitude and FVGs was found only for the soil Ct (R2 = 0.87), Nt (R2 = 0.81), and humus content (R2 = 0.87). A strong negative linear relationship between altitude and FVGs showed the ash content (R2 = 0.77). In turn, the oscillatory, polynomial course had a relationship between the clay content (R2 = 0.65) and energy (R2 = 0.75) to altitude and FVGs. Recognizing significant soil variables and better understanding their impact on the development of forest ecosystems is a prerequisite for distinguishing areas with the highest risk of their damage under conditions of various anthropogenic interventions and climate change. Therefore, this topic continues to require increased research efforts. For this reason, a better understanding of the relationships between soil properties and ecologically differentiated communities of forest ecosystems will allow us to identify areas with the highest risk of ecological changes that could lead to the degradation of European forests in the future.

The interacting effect of climate change and herbivory can trigger large-scale transformations of European temperate forests

In many regions of Europe, large wild herbivores alter forest community composition through their foraging preferences, hinder the forest's natural adaptive responses to climate change, and reduce ecosystem resilience. We investigated a widespread European forest type, a mixed forest dominated by Picea abies, which has recently experienced an unprecedented level of disturbance across the continent. Using the forest landscape model iLand, we investigated the combined effect of climate change and herbivory on forest structure, composition, and carbon and identified conditions leading to ecosystem transitions on a 300-year timescale. Eight climate change scenarios, driven by Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5, combined with three levels of regeneration browsing, were tested. We found that the persistence of the current level of browsing pressure impedes adaptive changes in community composition and sustains the presence of the vulnerable yet less palatable P. abies. These development trajectories were tortuous, characterized by a high disturbance intensity. On the contrary, reduced herbivory initiated a transformation towards the naturally dominant broadleaved species that was associated with an increased forest carbon and a considerably reduced disturbance. The conditions of RCP4.5 combined with high and moderate browsing levels preserved the forest within its reference range of variability, defining the actual boundaries of resilience. The remaining combinations of browsing and climate change led to ecosystem transitions. Under RCP4.5 with browsing effects excluded, the new equilibrium conditions were achieved within 120 years, whereas the stabilization was delayed by 50-100 years under RCP8.5 with higher browsing intensities. We conclude that forests dominated by P. abies are prone to transitions driven by climate change. However, reducing herbivory can set the forest on a stable and predictable trajectory, whereas sustaining the current browsing levels can lead to heightened disturbance activity, extended transition times, and high variability in the target conditions.

Modeling forest carbon sink trading with carbon credit using stochastic differential game

Forest carbon sinks integrated into the carbon trading is an important way to solve the funding shortage of carbon emission reduction and is a major measure to achieve carbon sequestration and thereby carbon neutrality. We propose a carbon credit trading mechanism based on forest carbon sinks and build an optimal carbon credit trading model on forest companies and manufacturers. The scale of carbon sink forest and trading price is determined by stochastic differential game method. Reasonable emission reduction responsibilities are set to achieve coordination between forest carbon sequestration and economic development. The results show that farsighted forest company is more likely to participate in carbon credit trade when the total amount of forest carbon sequestration is small, while shortsighted forest company is more likely to participate in carbon credit trade when the total amount of forest carbon sequestration is large. Low emission reduction responsibility in carbon credit trade is conductive to increasing forest carbon sequestration, and improving the enthusiasm of shortsighted forest company to participate in the trade, which reflects the superiority of the proposed carbon credit trading mechanism. This implies that the forest company should undertake low emission reduction responsibilities to achieve a win-win situation for economic and environmental benefits.

The Effects of a Megafire on Ecosystem Services and the Pace of Landscape Recovery

(1) Background: Megafires have affected several regions in the world (e.g., Australia, California), including, in 2017, the central and south-central zones of Chile. These areas represent real laboratories to monitor the impacts on the sustainability of landscapes and their recovery after fires. The present research examines the modification of dynamics and the provision of ecosystem services by a megafire in a Mediterranean landscape in central Chile, combining remote sensing technologies and ecosystem service assessments. (2) Methods: Land cover and spectral indices (NBRI, BAIS-2, NDVI, and EVI) were measured using Sentinel-2 imagery, while the provision of ecosystem services was evaluated using an expert-based matrix. (3) Results: The megafire affected forest plantations, formerly the dominant land cover, as well as other ecosystems, e.g., native forests. After five years, the landscape is dominated by exotic shrublands and grasslands. (4) Conclusions: The megafire caused a loss of 50% of the landscape’s capacity to supply ecosystem services. Given that native forests are the best provider of ecosystem services in this landscape, restoration is a key to recovering landscape sustainability.

Time matters: Resilience of a post-disturbance forest landscape

Present-day disturbances are transforming European forest landscapes, and their legacies determine the vulnerability and resilience of the emergent forest generation. To understand these legacy effects, we investigated the resilience of the aboveground forest biomass (B_abg) to a sequence of disturbances affecting the forest in different recovery phases from the initial large-scale impact. We used the model iLand to simulate windthrows that affected 13-24% of the B_abg in a Central European forest landscape. An additional wind event was simulated 20, 40, 60, or 80 years after the initial impact (i.e., sequences of two windthrows were defined). Each windthrow triggered an outbreak of bark beetles that interacted with the recovery processes. We evaluated the resistance of the B_abg to and recovery after the impact. Random Forest models were used to identify factors influencing resilience. We found that B_abg resistance was the lowest 20 years after the initial impact when the increased proportion of emergent wind-exposed forest edges prevailed the disturbance-dampening effect of reduced biomass levels and increased landscape heterogeneity. This forest had a remarkably high recovery rate and reached the pre-disturbance B_abg within 28 years. The forest exhibited a higher resistance and a slower recovery rate in the more advanced recovery phases, reaching the pre-disturbance B_abg within 60-80 years. The recovery was enhanced by higher levels of alpha and beta diversity. Under elevated air temperature, the bark beetle outbreak triggered by windthrow delayed the recovery. However, the positive effect of increased temperature on forest productivity caused the recovery rate to be higher under the warming scenario than under the reference climate. We conclude that resilience is not a static property, but its magnitude and drivers vary in time, depending on vegetation feedbacks, interactions between disturbances, and climate. Understanding these mechanisms is an essential step towards the operationalization of resilience-oriented stewardship.

Do bark beetle outbreaks amplify or dampen future bark beetle disturbances in Central Europe?

Bark beetle outbreaks have intensified in many forests around the globe in recent years. Yet, the legacy of these disturbances for future forest development remains unclear. Bark beetle disturbances are expected to increase further because of climate change. Consequently, feedbacks within the disturbance regime are of growing interest, for example, whether bark beetle outbreaks are amplifying future bark beetle activity (through the initiation of an even-aged cohort of trees) or dampening it (through increased structural and compositional diversity).We studied bark beetle-vegetation-climate interactions in the Bavarian Forest National Park (Germany), an area characterised by unprecedented bark beetle activity in the recent past. We simulated the effect of future bark beetle outbreaks on forest structure and composition and analysed how disturbance-mediated forest dynamics influence future bark beetle activity under different scenarios of climate change. We used process-based simulation modelling in combination with machine learning to disentangle the long-term interactions between vegetation, climate and bark beetles at the landscape scale.Disturbances by the European spruce bark beetle were strongly amplified by climate change, increasing between 59% and 221% compared to reference climate. Bark beetle outbreaks reduced the dominance of Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) on the landscape, increasing compositional diversity. Disturbances decreased structural diversity within stands (α diversity) and increased structural diversity between stands (β diversity). Overall, disturbance-mediated changes in forest structure and composition dampened future disturbance activity (a reduction of up to -67%), but were not able to fully compensate for the amplifying effect of climate change. Synthesis. Our findings indicate that the recent disturbance episode at the Bavarian Forest National Park was caused by a convergence of highly susceptible forest structures with climatic conditions favourable for bark beetle outbreaks. While future climate is increasingly conducive to massive outbreaks, the emerging landscape structure is less and less likely to support them. This study improves our understanding of the long-term legacies of ongoing bark beetle disturbances in Central Europe. It indicates that increased diversity provides an important dampening feedback, and suggests that preventing disturbances or homogenizing post-disturbance forests could elevate the future susceptibility to large-scale bark beetle outbreaks.

Seasonal variation of net ecosystem CO2 exchange and its influencing factors in an apple orchard in the Loess Plateau

The Loess Plateau is the largest apple cultivation region in the world. However, the role of rain-fed apple orchards as carbon sinks or sources, including the dynamic variation and influencing factors, are still unclear. In this study, the net ecosystem CO₂ exchange (NEE) was monitored by an eddy covariance (EC) system in Loess Plateau apple orchards during 2016-2017. The results demonstrated that the annual NEE was higher in 2016 (- 698.0 g C m^-2 year^-1) than in 2017 (- 554.0 g C m^-2 year^-1). Particularly, the amount of orchard CO₂ uptake was significantly greater in 2016 (- 772.0 g C m^-2) than in 2017 (- 642.1 g C m^-2) during the carbon sink period. This difference may be attributed to the higher NEE in 2016 compared to 2017 during the fast and slow growth periods. In addition, a higher daily NEE occurred to the higher air temperature (T_a), which promoted early sprouting in 2016 (- 3.91 g C m^-2 day^-1) compared to 2017 (- 2.86 g C m^-2 day^-1) during the fast growth period. The daily NEE in 2016 (- 2.59 g C m^-2 day^-1) was remarkably higher than that in 2017 (- 1.41 g C m^-2 day^-1) during the slow growth period, owing to the greater number of cloudy and rainy days and lower temperatures in 2017. Overall, the present study demonstrated the key role played by the amount of precipitation and temperature in regulating the NEE during the growth season and provided accurate quantitative information on the carbon budget in apple orchards. Graphical abstract.

Understanding forest dynamics by integrating age and environmental change

How much carbon a forest ecosystem can sequester is determined by both postdisturbance regrowth and environmentally modified growth. Disturbance causes sharp declines in the short term and is followed by regrowth in the long term. Environmental change may alter carbon accumulation through increasing CO₂ , nitrogen deposition and climate change. Regrowth and modified growth occur simultaneously, yet they are usually studied separately and assessed using an additive approach. Alternatively, an interactive approach using hierarchical models can address their concurrent nature and evaluate their joint effects. Hierarchical models are informed by forest age data, which have recently become available at global scales. The age-based hierarchical framework provides a coherent and feasible way to integrate regrowth and modified growth in understanding forest dynamics.

The influence of climate change and canopy disturbances on landslide susceptibility in headwater catchments

Forests have an important regulating function on water runoff and the occurrence of shallow landslides. Their structure and composition directly influence the risk of hydrogeomorphic processes, like floods with high sediment transport or debris flows. Climate change is substantially altering forest ecosystems, and for Central Europe an increase in natural disturbances from wind and insect outbreaks is expected for the future. How such changes impact the regulating function of forest ecosystems remains unclear. By combining methods from forestry, hydrology and geotechnical engineering we investigated possible effects of changing climate and disturbance regimes on shallow landslides. We simulated forest landscapes in two headwater catchments in the Eastern Alps of Austria under four different future climate scenarios over 200 years. Our results indicate that climate-mediated changes in forest dynamics can substantially alter the protective function of forest ecosystems. Climate change generally increased landslide risk in our simulations. Only when future warming coincided with drying landslide risk decreased relative to historic conditions. In depth analyses showed that an important driver of future landslide risk was the simulated vegetation composition. Trajectories away from flat rooting Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) forests currently dominating the system towards an increasing proportion of tree species with heart and taproot systems, increased root cohesion and reduced the soil volume mobilized in landslides. Natural disturbances generally reduced landslide risk in our simulations, with the positive effect of accelerated tree species change and increasing root cohesion outweighing a potential negative effect of disturbances on the water cycle. We conclude that while the efficacy of green infrastructure such as protective forests could be substantially reduced by climate change, such systems also have a strong inherent ability to adapt to changing conditions. Forest management should foster this adaptive capacity to strengthen the protective function of forests also under changing environmental conditions.

Contrasting vulnerability of monospecific and species-diverse forests to wind and bark beetle disturbance: The role of management

Wind and bark beetle disturbances have increased in recent decades, affecting Europe's coniferous forests with particular severity. Management fostering forest diversity and resilience is deemed to effectively mitigate disturbance impacts, yet its efficiency and interaction with other disturbance management measures remain unclear.We focused on Central Europe, which has become one of the hotspots of recent disturbance changes. We used the iLand ecosystem model to understand the interplay between species composition of the forest, forest disturbance dynamics affected by climate change, and disturbance management. The tested measures included (a) active transformation of tree species composition toward site-matching species; (b) intensive removal of windfelled trees, which can support the buildup of bark beetle populations; and (c) reduction of mature and vulnerable trees on the landscape via modified harvesting regimes.We found that management systems aiming to sustain the dominance of Norway spruce in the forest are failing under climate change, and none of the measures applied could mitigate the disturbance impacts. Conversely, management systems fostering forest diversity substantially reduced the level of disturbance. Significant disturbance reduction has been achieved even without salvaging and rotation length reduction, which is beneficial for ecosystem recovery, carbon, and biodiversity. Synthesis and applications: We conclude that climate change amplifies the contrast in vulnerability of monospecific and species-diverse forests to wind and bark beetle disturbance. Whereas forests dominated by Norway spruce are not likely to be sustained in Central Europe under climate change, different management strategies can be applied in species-diverse forests to reach the desired control over the disturbance dynamic. Our findings justify some unrealistic expectations about the options to control disturbance dynamics under climate change and highlight the importance of management that fosters forest diversity.

Reducing rotation age to address increasing disturbances in Central Europe: Potential and limitations

Forest disturbance regimes are intensifying in many parts of the globe. In order to mitigate disturbance impacts a number of management responses have been proposed, yet their effectiveness in addressing changing disturbance regimes remains largely unknown. The strong positive relationship between forest age and the vulnerability to disturbances such as windthrows and bark beetle infestations suggests that a reduced rotation length can be a potent means for mitigating the impacts of natural disturbances. However, disturbance mitigation measures such as shortened rotation lengths (SRL) can also have undesired consequences on ecosystem services and biodiversity, which need to be considered in their application. Here, we used the process-based landscape and disturbance model iLand to investigate the effects of SRL on the vulnerability of a 16,000 ha forest landscape in Central Europe to wind and bark beetle disturbances. We experimentally reduced the current rotation length (between 100 and 115 years) by up to -40% in 10% increments, and studied effects on disturbance dynamics under current and future climate conditions over a 200-year simulation period. Simultaneously, we quantified the collateral effects of SRL on forest carbon stocks and indicators of biodiversity. Shortening the rotation length by 40% decreased disturbances by 14%. This effect was strongly diminished under future climate change, reducing the mitigating effect of shortened rotation to < 6%. Collateral effects were severe in the initial decades after implementation: Reducing the rotation length by 40% caused a spike in harvested timber volume (+ 92%), decreased total forest carbon storage by 6% and reduced the number of large trees on the landscape by 20%. The long-term effects of SRL were less pronounced. At the same time, SRL caused an increase in tree species diversity. Shortening rotation length can reduce the impact of wind and bark beetle disturbances, but the overall efficiency of the measure is limited and decreases under climate change. Given the potential for undesired collateral effects we conclude that a reduction of the rotation length is no panacea for managing increasing disturbances, and should be applied in combination with other management measures reducing risks and fostering resilience.

Climate change causes critical transitions and irreversible alterations of mountain forests

Mountain forests are at particular risk of climate change impacts due to their temperature limitation and high exposure to warming. At the same time, their complex topography may help to buffer the effects of climate change and create climate refugia. Whether climate change can lead to critical transitions of mountain forest ecosystems and whether such transitions are reversible remain incompletely understood. We investigated the resilience of forest composition and size structure to climate change, focusing on a mountain forest landscape in the Eastern Alps. Using the individual-based forest landscape model iLand, we simulated ecosystem responses to a wide range of climatic changes (up to a 6°C increase in mean annual temperature and a 30% reduction in mean annual precipitation), testing for tipping points in vegetation size structure and composition under different topography scenarios. We found that at warming levels above +2°C a threshold was crossed, with the system tipping into an alternative state. The system shifted from a conifer-dominated landscape characterized by large trees to a landscape dominated by smaller, predominantly broadleaved trees. Topographic complexity moderated climate change impacts, smoothing and delaying the transitions between alternative vegetation states. We subsequently reversed the simulated climate forcing to assess the ability of the landscape to recover from climate change impacts. The forest landscape showed hysteresis, particularly in scenarios with lower precipitation. At the same mean annual temperature, equilibrium vegetation size structure and species composition differed between warming and cooling trajectories. Here we show that even moderate warming corresponding to current policy targets could result in critical transitions of forest ecosystems and highlight the importance of topographic complexity as a buffering agent. Furthermore, our results show that overshooting ambitious climate mitigation targets could be dangerous, as ecological impacts can be irreversible at millennial time scales once a tipping point has been crossed.

Substantial understory contribution to the C sink of a European temperate mountain forest landscape

CONTEXT

The contribution of forest understory to the temperate forest carbon sink is not well known, increasing the uncertainty in C cycling feedbacks on global climate as estimated by Earth System Models.

OBJECTIVES

We aimed at quantifying the effect of woody and non-woody understory vegetation on net ecosystem production (NEP) for a forested area of 158 km2 in the European Alps.

METHODS

We simulated C dynamics for the period 2000-2014, characterized by above-average temperatures, windstorms and a subsequent bark beetle outbreak for the area, using the regional ecosystem model LandscapeDNDC.

RESULTS

In the entire study area, woody and non-woody understory vegetation caused between 16 and 37% higher regional NEP as compared to a bare soil scenario over the 15-year period. The mean annual contribution of the understory to NEP was in the same order of magnitude as the average annual European (EU-25) forest C sink. After wind and bark beetle disturbances, the understory effect was more pronounced, leading to an increase in NEP between 35 and 67% compared to simulations not taking into account these components.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings strongly support the importance of processes related to the understory in the context of the climate change mitigation potential of temperate forest ecosystems. The expected increases in stand replacing disturbances due to climate change call for a better representation of understory vegetation dynamics and its effect on the ecosystem C balance in regional assessments and Earth System Models.

Spatial configuration matters when removing windfelled trees to manage bark beetle disturbances in Central European forest landscapes

Windfelled Norway spruce (Picea abies) trees play a crucial role in triggering large-scale outbreaks of the European spruce bark beetle Ips typographus. Outbreak management therefore strives to remove windfelled trees to reduce the risk of outbreaks, a measure referred to as sanitation logging (SL). Although this practice has been traditionally applied, its efficiency in preventing outbreaks remains poorly understood. We used the landscape simulation model iLand to investigate the effects of different spatial configurations and intensities of SL of windfelled trees on the subsequent disturbance by bark beetles. We studied differences between SL applied evenly across the landscape, focused on the vicinity of roads (scenario of limited logging resources) and concentrated in a contiguous block (scenario of spatially diversified management objectives). We focused on a 16 050 ha forest landscape in Central Europe. The removal of >80% of all windfelled trees is required to substantially reduce bark beetle disturbances. Focusing SL on the vicinity of roads created a "fire break effect" on bark beetle spread, and was moderately efficient in reducing landscape-scale bark beetle disturbance. Block treatments substantially reduced outbreaks in treated areas. Leaving parts of the landscape untreated (e.g., conservation areas) had no significant amplifying effect on outbreaks in managed areas. Climate change increased bark beetle disturbances and reduced the effect of SL. Our results suggest that past outbreak management methods will not be sufficient to counteract climate-mediated increases in bark beetle disturbance.

Short-interval severe fire erodes the resilience of subalpine lodgepole pine forests

Subalpine forests in the northern Rocky Mountains have been resilient to stand-replacing fires that historically burned at 100- to 300-year intervals. Fire intervals are projected to decline drastically as climate warms, and forests that reburn before recovering from previous fire may lose their ability to rebound. We studied recent fires in Greater Yellowstone (Wyoming, United States) and asked whether short-interval (<30 years) stand-replacing fires can erode lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta var. latifolia) forest resilience via increased burn severity, reduced early postfire tree regeneration, reduced carbon stocks, and slower carbon recovery. During 2016, fires reburned young lodgepole pine forests that regenerated after wildfires in 1988 and 2000. During 2017, we sampled 0.25-ha plots in stand-replacing reburns (n = 18) and nearby young forests that did not reburn (n = 9). We also simulated stand development with and without reburns to assess carbon recovery trajectories. Nearly all prefire biomass was combusted ("crown fire plus") in some reburns in which prefire trees were dense and small (≤4-cm basal diameter). Postfire tree seedling density was reduced sixfold relative to the previous (long-interval) fire, and high-density stands (>40,000 stems ha-1) were converted to sparse stands (<1,000 stems ha-1). In reburns, coarse wood biomass and aboveground carbon stocks were reduced by 65 and 62%, respectively, relative to areas that did not reburn. Increased carbon loss plus sparse tree regeneration delayed simulated carbon recovery by >150 years. Forests did not transition to nonforest, but extreme burn severity and reduced tree recovery foreshadow an erosion of forest resilience.