National trends in stroke after acute myocardial infarction among Medicare patients in the United States: 1999 to 2010

Assessment of the prognostic performance of TIMI, PAMI, CADILLAC and GRACE scores for short-term major adverse cardiovascular events in patients undergoing emergent percutaneous revascularisation: a prospective observational study

OBJECTIVES

Accurately predicting short-term MACE (major adverse cardiac events) following primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) remains a clinical challenge. This study aims to assess the effectiveness of four established risk scores in predicting short-term MACE after primary PCI.

DESIGN

Prospective observational study.

SETTING

The National Institute of Cardiovascular Diseases, Karachi, Pakistan.

PARTICIPANTS

We enrolled a cohort of consecutive adult patients diagnosed with ST-elevation myocardial infarction undergoing primary PCI over a 6-month period, from 1 January 2022 to 30 June 2022.

OUTCOME MEASURES

All the patients were followed at intervals of 3 months up to 12 months, and MACE events were recorded. Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction (TIMI), Primary Angioplasty in Myocardial Infarction (PAMI), Controlled Abciximab and Device Investigation to Lower Late Angioplasty Complications (CADILLAC) and Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) scores were obtained.

RESULTS

A total of 2839 patients (79.3% male, mean age 55.6±11.2 years) were included. Over a median follow-up of 244 days, the composite MACE rate was 18.4% (521). All-cause mortality was 13.5% (384), reinfarction requiring revascularisation was 4.3% (121), heart failure-related rehospitalisation was 2.7% (76), stent thrombosis occurred in 5.6% (160) and cerebrovascular accident events were documented in 1% (28). The area under the curve for TIMI, PAMI, CADILLAC and GRACE scores was 0.682 (95% CI 0.655 to 0.709), 0.688 (95% CI 0.663 to 0.713), 0.686 (95% CI 0.66 to 0.711) and 0.695 (95% CI 0.669 to 0.72), respectively, for the prediction of MACE. On multivariable Cox regression, high-risk categories based on GRACE score were independent predictors of MACE with adjusted HR of 1.88 (95% CI 1.28 to 2.77; p=0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

A significant proportion of patients experienced short-term MACE after primary PCI. While none of the assessed scores demonstrated significant predictive power, the GRACE score exhibited comparatively better predictive ability than the TIMI, PAMI and CADILLAC scores.

Association of short-term hospital-level outcome metrics with 1-year mortality and recurrence for US Medicare beneficiaries with ischemic stroke

BACKGROUND

Whether stroke patients treated at hospitals with better short-term outcome metrics have better long-term outcomes is unknown. We investigated whether treatment at US hospitals with better 30-day hospital-level stroke outcome metrics was associated with better 1-year outcomes, including reduced mortality and recurrent stroke, for patients after ischemic stroke.

METHODS

This cohort study included Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries aged ≥65 years discharged alive from US hospitals with a principal diagnosis of ischemic stroke from 07/01/2015 to 12/31/2018. We categorized patients by the treating hospital's performance on the CMS hospital-specific 30-day risk-standardized all-cause mortality and readmission measures for ischemic stroke from 07/01/2012 to 06/30/2015: Low-Low (both CMS mortality and readmission rates for the hospital were <25th percentile of national rates), High-High (both >75th percentile), and Intermediate (all other hospitals). We balanced characteristics between hospital performance categories using stabilized inverse probability weights (IPW) based on patient demographic and clinical factors. We fit Cox models assessing patient risks of 1-year all-cause mortality and ischemic stroke recurrence across hospital performance categories, weighted by the IPW and accounting for competing risks.

RESULTS

There were 595,929 stroke patients (mean age 78.9±8.8 years, 54.4% women) discharged from 2,563 hospitals (134 Low-Low, 2288 Intermediate, 141 High-High). For Low-Low, Intermediate, and High-High hospitals, respectively, 1-year mortality rates were 23.8% (95% confidence interval [CI] 23.3%-24.3%), 25.2% (25.1%-25.3%), and 26.5% (26.1%-26.9%), and recurrence rates were 8.0% (7.6%-8.3%), 7.9% (7.8%-8.0%), and 8.0% (7.7%-8.3%). Compared with patients treated at High-High hospitals, those treated at Low-Low and Intermediate hospitals, respectively, had 15% (hazard ratio 0.85; 95% CI 0.82-0.87) and 9% (0.91; 0.89-0.93) lower risks of 1-year mortality but no difference in recurrence.

CONCLUSIONS

Ischemic stroke patients treated at hospitals with better CMS short-term outcome metrics had lower risks of post-discharge 1-year mortality, but similar recurrent stroke rates, compared with patients treated at other hospitals.

Cost-Effectiveness of Smoking Cessation Interventions in Patients With Ischemic Stroke and Transient Ischemic Attack

BACKGROUND

Smoking cessation rates after stroke and transient ischemic attack are suboptimal, and smoking cessation interventions are underutilized. We performed a cost-effectiveness analysis of smoking cessation interventions in this population.

METHODS

We constructed a decision tree and used Markov models that aimed to assess the cost-effectiveness of varenicline, any pharmacotherapy with intensive counseling, and monetary incentives, compared with brief counseling alone in the secondary stroke prevention setting. Payer and societal costs of interventions and outcomes were modeled. The outcomes were recurrent stroke, myocardial infarction, and death using a lifetime horizon. Estimates and variance for the base case (35% cessation), costs and effectiveness of interventions, and outcome rates were imputed from the stroke literature. We calculated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios and incremental net monetary benefits. An intervention was considered cost-effective if the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was less than the willingness-to-pay threshold of $100 000 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) or when the incremental net monetary benefit was positive. Probabilistic Monte Carlo simulations modeled the impact of parameter uncertainty.

RESULTS

From the payer perspective, varenicline and pharmacotherapy with intensive counseling were associated with more QALYs (0.67 and 1.00, respectively) at less total lifetime costs compared with brief counseling alone. Monetary incentives were associated with 0.71 more QALYs at an additional cost of $120 compared with brief counseling alone, yielding an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $168/QALY. From the societal perspective, all 3 interventions provided more QALYs at less total costs compared with brief counseling alone. In 10 000 Monte Carlo simulations, all 3 smoking cessation interventions were cost-effective in >89% of runs.

CONCLUSIONS

For secondary stroke prevention, it is cost-effective and potentially cost-saving to deliver smoking cessation therapy beyond brief counseling alone.

Temporal Trends, Predictors, and Outcomes of Acute Ischemic Stroke in Acute Myocardial Infarction in the United States

Background

There are limited contemporary data prevalence and outcomes of acute ischemic stroke (AIS) complicating acute myocardial infarction (AMI).

Methods and Results

Adult (>18 years) AMI admissions using the National Inpatient Sample database (2000–2017) were evaluated for in‐hospital AIS. Outcomes of interest included in‐hospital mortality, hospitalization costs, length of stay, discharge disposition, and use of tracheostomy and percutaneous endoscopic gastrostomy. The discharge destination was used to classify survivors into good and poor outcomes. Of a total 11 622 528 AMI admissions, 183 896 (1.6%) had concomitant AIS. As compared with 2000, in 2017, AIS rates increased slightly among ST‐segment–elevation AMI (adjusted odds ratio, 1.10 [95% CI, 1.04–1.15]) and decreased in non–ST‐segment–elevation AMI (adjusted odds ratio, 0.47 [95% CI, 0.46–0.49]) admissions (P<0.001). Compared with those without, the AIS cohort was on average older, female, of non‐White race, with greater comorbidities, and higher rates of arrhythmias. The AMI‐AIS admissions received less frequent coronary angiography (46.9% versus 63.8%) and percutaneous coronary intervention (22.7% versus 41.8%) (P<0.001). The AIS cohort had higher in‐hospital mortality (16.4% versus 6.0%; adjusted odds ratio, 1.75 [95% CI, 1.72–1.78]; P<0.001), longer hospital length of stay, higher hospitalization costs, greater use of tracheostomy and percutaneous endoscopic gastrostomy, and less frequent discharges to home (all P<0.001). Among AMI‐AIS survivors (N=153 318), 57.3% had a poor functional outcome at discharge with relatively stable temporal trends.

Conclusions

AIS is associated with significantly higher in‐hospital mortality and poor functional outcomes in AMI admissions.

Neuroinflammatory Mechanisms in Ischemic Stroke: Focus on Cardioembolic Stroke, Background, and Therapeutic Approaches

One of the most important causes of neurological morbidity and mortality in the world is ischemic stroke. It can be a result of multiple events such as embolism with a cardiac origin, occlusion of small vessels in the brain, and atherosclerosis affecting the cerebral circulation. Increasing evidence shows the intricate function played by the immune system in the pathophysiological variations that take place after cerebral ischemic injury. Following the ischemic cerebral harm, we can observe consequent neuroinflammation that causes additional damage provoking the death of the cells; on the other hand, it also plays a beneficial role in stimulating remedial action. Immune mediators are the origin of signals with a proinflammatory position that can boost the cells in the brain and promote the penetration of numerous inflammatory cytotypes (various subtypes of T cells, monocytes/macrophages, neutrophils, and different inflammatory cells) within the area affected by ischemia; this process is responsible for further ischemic damage of the brain. This inflammatory process seems to involve both the cerebral tissue and the whole organism in cardioembolic stroke, the stroke subtype that is associated with more severe brain damage and a consequent worse outcome (more disability, higher mortality). In this review, the authors want to present an overview of the present learning of the mechanisms of inflammation that takes place in the cerebral tissue and the role of the immune system involved in ischemic stroke, focusing on cardioembolic stroke and its potential treatment strategies.

Carthamus tinctorius L. Extract ameliorates cerebral ischemia-reperfusion injury in rats by regulating matrix metalloproteinases and apoptosis

We investigate the protective effect of Carthamus tinctorius L. (CTL, also known as Honghua in China or Safflower) on cerebral ischemia-reperfusion and explored the possible mechanisms on regulating apoptosis and matrix metalloproteinases (MMPs). High-performance liquid chromatography method with diode array detection analysis was established to analyze the components of CTL. Middle cerebral artery occlusion rats model was established to evaluate Neurological Function Score and hematoxylin-eosin staining, as well as triphenyltetrazolium was used to examine the infarction area ratio. Transferase-mediated dUTP nick-end labeling was performed for the apoptosis. Apoptosis-related factors, including B-cell lymphoma-2 (Bcl-2), Bax and Caspase3, and MMPs-related MMP2, MMP9, tissue inhibitor of metalloproteinases 1 (TIMP1) in ischemic brain, were assayed by Western blot, reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction, and immunohistochemistry. The data showed that CTL (2, 4 g crude drug/kg/d) treatment could significantly reduce the ischemic damage in brain tissue and improve a significant neurological function score. In addition, CTL could also attenuate apoptosis degree of brain tissues and regulate Bcl-2, Bax, and Caspase 3 and also have a significant decrease on MMP-9 expression, followed by a significant increase of TIMP1 protein expression. These findings indicated that regulation of CTL on apoptosis and MMPs contributed to its protective effect on ischemia/reperfusion injury.

One-year clinical outcomes of ticagrelor compared with clopidogrel after percutaneous coronary intervention in patients with acute myocardial infarction: From Korean Health Insurance Review and Assessment Data

BACKGROUND

Ticagrelor has been widely accepted in clinical practice for treatment of acute myocardial infarction (AMI), however its clinical safety and efficacy have not been revealed sufficiently in Asian populations.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Among a total 20,270 patients (age <75 years) with AMI undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention who received dual antiplatelet therapy for at least 30 days, clinical outcomes at 1 year were assessed from the database of Health Insurance Review and Assessment Service in Korea between 2013 and 2014. Ticagrelor showed a significant effect on reduction of all-cause death [stabilized inverse probability of treatment weighted (sIPTW)-adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 0.57, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.42-0.77, p<0.001]. Stroke was also reduced by using ticagrelor (sIPTW-aOR 0.58, 95% CI 0.41-0.82, p=0.002). Bleeding risk was not increased by ticagrelor use. There were nearly 30% of patients who switched from ticagrelor to different P2Y12 inhibitors. Switching P2Y12 inhibitors was associated with clinical adverse events including MI, stroke, and bleeding.

CONCLUSIONS

Among patients aged younger than 75 years, ticagrelor was associated with lower incidence of all-cause mortality. Stroke risk was also reduced in patients with a prescription for ticagrelor without an increase in bleeding risk.

Association Between Medication Adherence and 1-Year Major Cardiovascular Adverse Events After Acute Myocardial Infarction in China

Background Secondary prevention after acute myocardial infarction ( AMI ) requires long-term guideline-directed medical therapy. However, the level of medication adherence, factors associated with poor adherence, and extent to which good adherence can reduce adverse events after AMI in China remain uncertain. Methods and Results In 2013 to 2014, 4001 AMI patients aged ≥18 years were discharged alive from 53 hospitals across China (mean age 60.5±11.7 years; 22.7% female). Good adherence was defined as taking medications (aspirin, β-blockers, statins, clopidogrel, or angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors/angiotensin-receptor blockers) ≥90% of the time as prescribed. Cox models assessed the association between good adherence (a time-varying covariate) and 1-year cardiovascular events after AMI . The most common medications were aspirin (82.2%) and statins (80.5%). There were 243 patients who were not prescribed any medications during follow-up; 1-year event rates were higher for these patients (25.1%, 95% CI 19.7-30.6%) versus those taking ≥1 medications (6.6%, 95% CI 5.76-7.34%). The overall rate of good adherence was 52.9%. Good adherence was associated with lower risk of 1-year events (adjusted hazard ratio 0.61, 95% CI 0.49-0.77). The most common reason for poor adherence was belief that one's condition had improved/no longer required medication. More comorbidities and lower education level were associated with poor adherence. Conclusions Good adherence reduced 1-year cardiovascular event risk after AMI . About half of our cohort did not have good adherence. National efforts to improve AMI outcomes in China should focus on medication adherence and educating patients on the importance of cardiovascular medications for reducing risk of recurrent events. Clinical Trial Registration URL : http://www.clinicaltrials.gov . Unique identifier: NCT01624909.

Cardiovascular events and death after myocardial infarction or ischemic stroke in an older Medicare population

Background

Survivors of myocardial infarction (MI) or ischemic stroke (IS) are at high risk for subsequent cardiovascular events.

Hypothesis

Older patients with prior MI or IS are at risk for recurrent cardiovascular events, and comorbidities such as diabetes may increase this risk.

Methods

Two cohorts were studied in a retrospective Medicare 20% random sample—a 2008 cohort with up to 6 years of follow‐up (MI, N = 26 460; IS, N = 17 566) and a 2012 cohort with 1 year of follow‐up (MI, N = 26 548; IS, N = 17 728).

Results

In older patients who survived an event of MI or IS (2012 cohort), 7.2% had a recurrent MI and 6.7% had a recurrent IS in the first year; 32% died. Accounting for multiple recurrent events (2012 cohort), the event rates per 100 patient‐years were 11.6 and 10.2 for the MI and IS cohorts, respectively. Cumulative incidence of recurrence (2008 cohort) increased from 7.7% at 1 year to 14.3% at 6 years for recurrent MI and from 6.7% at 1 year to 13.4% at 6 years for recurrent IS. Comorbid diabetes (2012 cohort) was significantly associated (adjusted risk ratio) with MI recurrence (1.44) and risk of coronary revascularization (1.23) in the MI cohort and with IS recurrence (1.26) in the IS cohort.

Conclusion

In this older population with prior MI or IS, high rates of recurrent cardiovascular events and multiple recurrent events were observed. These findings highlight the need for aggressive intervention for secondary prevention and management of comorbidities in high‐risk patients, particularly those with diabetes.

Incidence and prognostic impact of post discharge bleeding post acute coronary syndrome within an outpatient setting: a systematic review

OBJECTIVE

The primary objective was to determine the incidence of bleeding events post acute coronary syndrome (ACS) following hospital discharge. The secondary objective was to determine the prognostic impact of bleeding on mortality, major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE), myocardial re-infarction and rehospitalisation in the postdischarge setting.

DESIGN

A narrative systematic review.

DATA SOURCE

Medline, Embase, Amed and Central (Cochrane) were searched up to August 2018.

STUDY SELECTION

For the primary objective, randomised controlled trials (RCT) and observational studies reporting on the incidence of bleeding post hospital discharge were included. For the secondary objective, RCTs and observational studies that compared patients with bleeding versus those without bleeding post hospital discharge vis-à-vis mortality, MACE, myocardial re-infarction and rehospitalisation were included.

RESULTS

53 studies (36 observational studies and 17 RCTs) with a combined cohort of 714 458 participants for the primary objectives and 187 317 for the secondary objectives were included. Follow-up ranged from 1 month to just over 4 years. The incidence of bleeding within 12 months post hospital discharge ranged from 0.20% to 37.5% in observational studies and between 0.96% and 39.4% in RCTs. The majority of bleeds occurred in the initial 3 months after hospital discharge with bruising the most commonly reported event. Major bleeding increased the risk of mortality by nearly threefold in two studies. One study showed an increased risk of MACE (HR 3.00,95% CI 2.75 to 3.27; p<0.0001) with bleeding and another study showed a non-significant association with rehospitalisation (HR 1.20,95% CI 0.95 to 1.52; p=0.13).

CONCLUSION

Bleeding complications following ACS management are common and continue to occur in the long term after hospital discharge. These bleeding complications may increase the risk of mortality and MACE, but greater evidence is needed to assess their long-term effects.

PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42017062378.

Risk Factors Associated With Major Cardiovascular Events 1 Year After Acute Myocardial Infarction

IMPORTANCE

Patients who survive acute myocardial infarction (AMI) have a high risk of subsequent major cardiovascular events. Efforts to identify risk factors for recurrence have primarily focused on the period immediately following AMI admission.

OBJECTIVES

To identify risk factors and develop and evaluate a risk model that predicts 1-year cardiovascular events after AMI.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

Prospective cohort study. Patients with AMI (n = 4227), aged 18 years or older, discharged alive from 53 acute-care hospitals across China from January 1, 2013, to July 17, 2014. Patients were randomly divided into samples: training (50% [2113 patients]), test (25% [1057 patients]), and validation (25% [1057 patients]). Risk factors were identified by a Cox model with Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation and further evaluated by latent class analysis. Analyses were conducted from May 1, 2017, to January 21, 2018.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Major cardiovascular events, including recurrent AMI, stroke, heart failure, and death, within 1 year after discharge for the index AMI hospitalization.

RESULTS

The mean (SD) age of the cohort was 60.8 (11.8) years and 994 of 4227 patients (23.5%) were female. Common comorbidities included hypertension (2358 patients [55.8%]), coronary heart disease (1798 patients [42.5%]), and dyslipidemia (1290 patients [30.5%]). One-year event rates were 8.1% (95% CI, 6.91%-9.24%), 9.0% (95% CI, 7.22%-10.70%), and 6.4% (95% CI, 4.89%-7.85%) for the training, test, and validation samples, respectively. Nineteen risk factors comprising 15 unique variables (age, education, prior AMI, prior ventricular tachycardia or fibrillation, hypertension, angina, prearrival medical assistance, >4 hours from onset of symptoms to admission, ejection fraction, renal dysfunction, heart rate, systolic blood pressure, white blood cell count, blood glucose, and in-hospital complications) were identified. In the training, test, and validation samples, respectively, the risk model had C statistics of 0.79 (95% CI, 0.75-0.83), 0.73 (95% CI, 0.68-0.78), and 0.77 (95% CI, 0.70-0.83) and a predictive range of 1.2% to 33.9%, 1.2% to 37.9%, and 1.3% to 34.3%. The C statistic was 0.69 (95% CI, 0.65-0.74) for the latent class model in the training data. The risk model stratified 11.3%, 81.0%, and 7.7% of patients to high-, average-, and low-risk groups, with respective probabilities of 0.32, 0.06, and 0.01 for 1-year events.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

Nineteen risk factors were identified, and a model was developed and evaluated to predict risk of 1-year cardiovascular events after AMI. This may aid clinicians in identifying high-risk patients who would benefit most from intensive follow-up and aggressive risk factor reduction.

Cardioembolic Stroke

Cardiac embolism accounts for an increasing proportion of ischemic strokes and might multiply several-fold during the next decades. However, research points to several potential strategies to stem this expected rise in cardioembolic stroke. First, although one-third of strokes are of unclear cause, it is increasingly accepted that many of these cryptogenic strokes arise from a distant embolism rather than in situ cerebrovascular disease, leading to the recent formulation of embolic stroke of undetermined source as a distinct target for investigation. Second, recent clinical trials have indicated that embolic stroke of undetermined source may often stem from subclinical atrial fibrillation, which can be diagnosed with prolonged heart rhythm monitoring. Third, emerging evidence indicates that a thrombogenic atrial substrate can lead to atrial thromboembolism even in the absence of atrial fibrillation. Such an atrial cardiomyopathy may explain many cases of embolic stroke of undetermined source, and oral anticoagulant drugs may prove to reduce stroke risk from atrial cardiomyopathy given its parallels to atrial fibrillation. Non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulant drugs have recently expanded therapeutic options for preventing cardioembolic stroke and are currently being tested for stroke prevention in patients with embolic stroke of undetermined source, including specifically those with atrial cardiomyopathy. Fourth, increasing appreciation of thrombogenic atrial substrate and the common coexistence of cardiac and extracardiac stroke risk factors suggest benefits from global vascular risk factor management in addition to anticoagulation. Finally, improved imaging of ventricular thrombus plus the availability of non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulant drugs may lead to better prevention of stroke from acute myocardial infarction and heart failure.

Modeling of in hospital mortality determinants in myocardial infarction patients, with and without stroke: A national study in Iran

Background:

The data and determinants of mortality due to stroke in myocardial infarction (MI) patients are unknown. This study was conducted to evaluate the differences in risk factors for hospital mortality among MI patients with and without stroke history.

Materials and Methods:

This study was a retrospective, cohort study; 20,750 new patients with MI from April, 2012 to March, 2013 were followed up and their data were analyzed according to having or not having the stroke history. Stroke and MI were defined based on the World Health Organization's definition. The data were analyzed by logistic regression in STATA software.

Results:

Of the 20,750 studied patients, 4293 had stroke history. The prevalence of stroke in the studied population was derived 20.96% (confidence interval [CI] 95%: 20.13–21.24). Of the patients, 2537 (59.1%) had ST-elevation MI (STEMI). Mortality ratio in patients with and without stroke was obtained 18.8% and 10.3%, respectively. The prevalence of risk factors in MI patients with and without a stroke is various. The adjusted odds ratio of mortality in patients with stroke history was derived 7.02 (95% CI: 5.42–9) for chest pain resistant to treatment, 2.39 (95% CI: 1.97–2.9) for STEMI, 3.02 (95% CI: 2.5–3.64) for lack of thrombolytic therapy, 2.2 (95% CI: 1.66–2.91) for heart failure, and 2.17 (95% CI: 1.6–2.9) for ventricular tachycardia.

Conclusion:

With regards to the factors associated with mortality in this study, it is particularly necessary to control the mortality in MI patients with stroke history. More emphasis should be placed on the MI patients with the previous stroke over those without in the interventions developed for prevention and treatment, and for the prevention of avoidable mortalities.