Inferring disease architecture and predictive ability with LDpred2-auto

Polygenic Scores and Mood Disorder Onsets in the Context of Family History and Early Psychopathology

Importance

Bipolar disorder (BD) and major depressive disorder (MDD) aggregate within families, with risk often first manifesting as early psychopathology, including attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) and anxiety disorders.

Objective

To determine whether polygenic scores (PGS) are associated with mood disorder onset independent of familial high risk for BD (FHR-BD) and early psychopathology.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This cohort study used data from 7 prospective cohorts enriched in FHR-BD from Australia, Canada, the Netherlands, Spain, and the US. Participants with FHR-BD, defined as having at least 1 first-degree relative with BD, were compared with participants without FHR for any mood disorder. Participants were repeatedly assessed with variable follow-up intervals from July 1992 to July 2023. Data were analyzed from August 2023 to August 2024.

Exposures

PGS indexed genetic liability for MDD, BD, anxiety, neuroticism, subjective well-being, ADHD, self-regulation, and addiction risk factor. Semistructured diagnostic interviews with relatives established FHR-BD. ADHD or anxiety disorder diagnoses before mood disorder onset constituted early psychopathology.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The outcome of interest, mood disorder onset, was defined as a consensus-confirmed new diagnosis of MDD or BD. Cox regression examined associations of PGS, FHR-BD, ADHD, and anxiety with mood disorder onset. Kaplan-Meier curves and log-rank tests evaluated the probability of onset by PGS quartile and familial risk status.

Results

A total of 1064 participants (546 [51.3%] female; mean [SD] age at last assessment, 21.7 [5.1] years), including 660 with FHR-BD and 404 without FHR for any mood disorder, were repeatedly assessed for mental disorders. A total of 399 mood disorder onsets occurred over a variable mean (SD) follow-up interval of 6.3 (5.7) years. Multiple PGS were associated with onset after correcting for FHR-BD and early psychopathology, including PGS for ADHD (hazard ratio [HR], 1.19; 95% CI, 1.06-1.34), self-regulation (HR, 1.19; 95% CI, 1.06-1.34), neuroticism (HR, 1.18; 95% CI, 1.06-1.32), MDD (HR, 1.17; 95% CI, 1.04-1.31), addiction risk factor (HR, 1.16; 95% CI, 1.04-1.30), anxiety (HR, 1.15; 95% CI, 1.02-1.28), BD (HR, 1.14; 95% CI, 1.02-1.28), and subjective well-being (HR, 0.89; 95% CI, 0.79-0.99). High PGS for addiction risk factor, anxiety, BD, and MDD were associated with increased probability of onset in the control group. High PGS for ADHD and self-regulation increased rates of onset among participants with FHR-BD. PGS for self-regulation, ADHD, and addiction risk factors showed stronger associations with onsets of BD than MDD.

Conclusions and Relevance

In this cohort study, multiple PGS were associated with mood disorder onset independent of family history of BD and premorbid diagnoses of ADHD or anxiety. The association between PGS and mood disorder risk varied depending on family history status.

Genome-wide by trait interaction analyses with neuroticism reveal chronic pain-associated depression as a distinct genetic subtype

The frequent co-occurrence of chronic pain (CP) and depression is a well-known phenomenon, supported by both the high prevalence of major depression among CP patients and studies describing a substantial genetic correlation between the two phenotypes. Neuroticism, a trait characterised by maladaptive stress responses and a tendency to experience negative emotions, has been linked to both depression and the experience of pain. This study aimed to determine whether depression associated with CP represents a genetically distinct subtype and to explore the role of neuroticism in modulating genetic susceptibility to depression. To address these questions, we performed genome-wide association analyses for current depression utilising the UK Biobank dataset, followed by genome-wide by trait interaction analyses to assess the interaction effect of neuroticism, and polygenic risk score analyses to compare predictions. Our findings suggest that CP-related depression is a valid subtype of depression. In association with current depression, we identified a total of 49 novel genetic risk polymorphisms meeting the genome-wide significance threshold, including variants involved in synaptic plasticity and transcriptional regulation. Additionally, our results support that neuroticism has a prominent role in modulating the genetic risk of current depression independently of CP, which highlights the importance of considering personality traits and stress factors in understanding the genetic background of complex and heterogeneous phenotypes like depression.

Intergenerational transmission of polygenic predisposition for neuropsychiatric traits on emotional and behavioural difficulties in childhood

Childhood emotional and behavioural difficulties tend to co-occur and often precede diagnosed neuropsychiatric conditions. Identifying shared and specific risk factors for early-life mental health difficulties is therefore essential for prevention strategies. Here, we examine how parental risk factors shape their offspring's emotional and behavioural symptoms (e.g. feelings of anxiety, and restlessness) using data from 14,959 genotyped family trios from the Norwegian Mother, Father and Child Cohort Study (MoBa). We model maternal reports of emotional and behavioural symptoms, organizing them into general and specific domains. We then investigate the direct (genetically transmitted) and indirect (environmentally mediated) contributions of parental polygenic risk for neuropsychiatric-related traits and whether these are shared across symptoms. We observe evidence consistent with an environmental route to general symptomatology beyond genetic transmission, while also demonstrating domain-specific direct and indirect genetic contributions. These findings improve our understanding of early risk pathways that can be targeted in preventive interventions aiming to interrupt the intergenerational cycle of risk transmission.

Rapidly evolved genomic regions shape individual language abilities in present-day humans

1Minor genetic changes have produced profound differences in cognitive abilities between humans and our closest relatives, particularly in language. Despite decades of research, ranging from single-gene studies to broader evolutionary analyses[1, 2, 3, 4, 5], key questions about the genomic foundations of human language have persisted, including which sequences are involved, how they evolved, and whether similar changes occur in other vocal learning species. Here we provide the first evidence directly linking rapidly evolved genomic regions to language abilities in contemporary humans. Through extensive analysis of 65 million years of evolutionary events in over 30,000 individuals, we demonstrate that Human Ancestor Quickly Evolved Regions (HAQERs)[5] - sequences that rapidly accumulated mutations after the human-chimpanzee split - specifically influence language but not general cognition. These regions evolved to shape language development by altering binding of Forkhead domain transcription factors, including FOXP2. Strikingly, language-associated HAQER variants show higher prevalence in Neanderthals than modern humans, have been stable throughout recent human history, and show evidence of convergent evolution across other mammalian vocal learners. An unexpected pattern of balancing selection acting on these apparently beneficial alleles is explained by their pleiotropic effects on prenatal brain development contributing to birth complications, reflecting an evolutionary trade-off between language capability and reproductive fitness. By developing the Evolution Stratified-Polygenic Score analysis, we show that language capabilities likely emerged before the human-Neanderthal split - far earlier than previously thought[3, 6, 7]. Our findings establish the first direct link between ancient genomic divergence and present-day variation in language abilities, while revealing how evolutionary constraints continue to shape human cognitive development.

Mapping the Genetic Landscape of Psychiatric Disorders With the MiXeR Toolset

Psychiatric disorders have complex genetic architectures with substantial genetic overlap across conditions, which may partially explain their high levels of comorbidity. This presents significant challenges to research. Genome-wide association studies (GWASs) have uncovered hundreds of loci associated with single disorders, but the genetic landscape of psychiatric disorders has remained largely obscure. Moving beyond the conventional infinitesimal model, uni-, bi-, and trivariate MiXeR tools, applied to GWAS summary statistics, has enabled us to more comprehensively describe the genetic architecture of complex disorders and traits and their overlap. Furthermore, the GSA-MiXeR tool improves biological interpretation of GWAS findings to better elucidate causal mechanisms. Here, we outline the methodology that underlies the MiXeR tools together with instructions for their optimal use. We review results from studies that have investigated the genetic architecture of psychiatric disorders and their overlap using the MiXeR toolset. These studies have revealed generally high polygenicity and low discoverability among psychiatric disorders, particularly in contrast to somatic disorders. There is also pervasive genetic overlap across psychiatric disorders and behavioral traits, while their overlap with somatic traits is smaller, consistent with differences in polygenicity. Finally, GSA-MiXeR has quantified the contribution of gene sets to the heritability of psychiatric disorders, prioritizing small, biologically coherent gene sets. Together, these findings have implications for our understanding of the complex relationships between psychiatric disorders and related traits. MiXeR tools have provided new insights into the genetic architecture of psychiatric disorders, generating a better understanding of their underlying biological mechanisms and potential for clinical utility.

Interplay between genetic risk and built neighborhood conditions as predictor of BMI across the transition into adulthood

OBJECTIVE

We examined BMI development across changes in the built environment during the transition from adolescence to young adulthood and explored the moderating role of genetic risk.

METHODS

We used longitudinal data from individuals aged 16 to 25 years in the TRacking Adolescents' Individual Lives Survey (TRAILS) that we linked to built environment data for 2006, 2010, and 2016 from the Geoscience and Health Cohort Consortium (GECCO). We fitted a latent growth model of BMI and examined associations of changes in fast-food restaurant density and walkability with changes in BMI (n = 2735), as well as interactions of changes in fast-food restaurant density and walkability with genetic risk (n = 1676).

RESULTS

Changes in fast-food restaurant density (e.g., Δ2010-2006: β = -0.04, 95% CI: -0.11 to 0.03) and walkability (e.g., Δ2010-2006: β = -0.05, 95% CI: -0.14 to 0.05) were not associated with BMI changes. Additionally, genetic risk did not moderate these associations.

CONCLUSIONS

We found limited evidence that moving to neighborhoods with higher fast-food restaurant density or less walkability was associated with BMI changes or that genetic risk moderated these associations. Our findings suggest that associations between the built environment and BMI changes during the transition into young adulthood are likely small.

Genomic structural equation modeling of reward-related traits: exploring the genetic factor structure and its relationship with psychopathology

Reward sensitivity has a partial genetic background, and extreme levels may increase vulnerability to psychopathology. This study explores the genetic factor structure underlying reward-related traits and examines how genetic variance links to psychopathology. We modeled GWAS data from ten reward-related traits: risk tolerance (N = 975,353), extraversion (N = 122,886), sensation seeking (N = 132,395), (lack of) premeditation (N = 132,667), (lack of) perseverance (N = 133,517), positive urgency (N = 132,132), negative urgency (N = 132,559), attentional impulsivity (N = 124,739), motor impulsivity (N = 124,104), and nonplanning impulsivity (N = 123,509) to derive their genetic factor structure. A GWAS on this structure was performed, and polygenic scores (PGS) were generated to test associations with problems related to attention, hyperactivity, autism, aggression, mood, anxiety, alcohol use, smoking, and drug use problems in up to 78,000 individuals from the Dutch Lifelines Study. A two-factor model fit best - "reward interest" (openness to rewards) and "impulsivity" (pursuit of rewards with little consideration of consequences). The reward interest PGS was positively associated with hyperactivity, alcohol, smoking, and drug use, and negatively with autism spectrum problems. The impulsivity PGS was positively associated with all studied psychopathology. These findings demonstrate the feasibility of using related traits to investigate the dimensionality of reward sensitivity and how distinct aspects may be linked to different psychopathology domains.

Direct and indirect genetic effects on early neurodevelopmental traits

BACKGROUND

Neurodevelopmental conditions are highly heritable. Recent studies have shown that genomic heritability estimates can be confounded by genetic effects mediated via the environment (indirect genetic effects). However, the relative importance of direct versus indirect genetic effects on early variability in traits related to neurodevelopmental conditions is unknown.

METHODS

The sample included up to 24,692 parent-offspring trios from the Norwegian MoBa cohort. We use Trio-GCTA to estimate latent direct and indirect genetic effects on mother-reported neurodevelopmental traits at age of 3 years (restricted and repetitive behaviors and interests, inattention, hyperactivity, language, social, and motor development). Further, we investigate to what extent direct and indirect effects are attributable to common genetic variants associated with autism, ADHD, developmental dyslexia, educational attainment, and cognitive ability using polygenic scores (PGS) in regression modeling.

RESULTS

We find evidence for contributions of direct and indirect latent common genetic effects to inattention (direct: explaining 4.8% of variance, indirect: 6.7%) hyperactivity (direct: 1.3%, indirect: 9.6%), and restricted and repetitive behaviors (direct: 0.8%, indirect: 7.3%). Direct effects best explained variation in social and communication, language, and motor development (5.1%-5.7%). Direct genetic effects on inattention were captured by PGS for ADHD, educational attainment, and cognitive ability, whereas direct genetic effects on language development were captured by cognitive ability, educational attainment, and autism PGS. Indirect genetic effects on neurodevelopmental traits were primarily captured by educational attainment and/or cognitive ability PGS.

CONCLUSIONS

Results were consistent with differential contributions to neurodevelopmental traits in early childhood from direct and indirect genetic effects. Indirect effects were particularly important for hyperactivity and restricted and repetitive behaviors and interests and may be linked to genetic variation associated with cognition and educational attainment. Our findings illustrate the importance of within-family methods for disentangling genetic processes that influence early neurodevelopmental traits, even when identifiable associations are small.

Comparison of methods for building polygenic scores for diverse populations

Polygenic scores (PGSs) are a promising tool for estimating individual-level genetic risk of disease based on the results of genome-wide association studies (GWASs). However, their promise has yet to be fully realized because most currently available PGSs were built with genetic data from predominantly European-ancestry populations, and PGS performance declines when scores are applied to target populations different from the populations from which they were derived. Thus, there is a great need to improve PGS performance in currently under-studied populations. In this work we leverage data from two large and diverse cohorts the Million Veterans Program (MVP) and All of Us (AoU), providing us the unique opportunity to compare methods for building PGSs for multi-ancestry populations across multiple traits. We build PGSs for five continuous traits and five binary traits using both multi-ancestry and single-ancestry approaches with popular Bayesian PGS methods and both MVP META GWAS results and population-specific GWAS results from the respective African, European, and Hispanic MVP populations. We evaluate these scores in three AoU populations genetically similar to the respective African, Admixed American, and European 1000 Genomes Project superpopulations. Using correlation-based tests, we make formal comparisons of the PGS performance across the multiple AoU populations. We conclude that approaches that combine GWAS data from multiple populations produce PGSs that perform better than approaches that utilize smaller single-population GWAS results matched to the target population, and specifically that multi-ancestry scores built with PRS-CSx outperform the other approaches in the three AoU populations.

Nature or nurture: genetic and environmental predictors of adiposity gain in adults

BACKGROUND

Previous prediction models for adiposity gain have not yet achieved sufficient predictive ability for clinical relevance. We investigated whether traditional and genetic factors accurately predict adiposity gain.

METHODS

A 5-year gain of ≥5% in body mass index (BMI) and waist-to-hip ratio (WHR) from baseline were predicted in mid-late adulthood individuals (median of 55 years old at baseline). Proportional hazards models were fitted in 245,699 participants from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort to identify robust environmental predictors. Polygenic risk scores (PRS) of 5 proxies of adiposity [BMI, WHR, and three body shape phenotypes (PCs)] were computed using genetic weights from an independent cohort (UK Biobank). Environmental and genetic models were validated in 29,953 EPIC participants.

FINDINGS

Environmental models presented a remarkable predictive ability (AUCBMI: 0.69, 95% CI: 0.68-0.70; AUCWHR: 0.75, 95% CI: 0.74-0.77). The genetic geographic distribution for WHR and PC1 (overall adiposity) showed higher predisposition in North than South Europe. Predictive ability of PRSs was null (AUC: ∼0.52) and did not improve when combined with environmental models. However, PRSs of BMI and PC1 showed some prediction ability for BMI gain from self-reported BMI at 20 years old to baseline observation (early adulthood) (AUC: 0.60-0.62).

INTERPRETATION

Our study indicates that environmental models to discriminate European individuals at higher risk of adiposity gain can be integrated in standard prevention protocols. PRSs may play a robust role in predicting adiposity gain at early rather than mid-late adulthood suggesting a more important role of genetic factors in this life period.

FUNDING

French National Cancer Institute (INCA_N°2019-176) 1220, German Research Foundation (BA 5459/2-1), Instituto de Salud Carlos III (Miguel Servet Program CP21/00058).

Blood Lipid Polygenic Risk Score Development and Application for Atherosclerosis Ultrasound Parameters

Background: The present study investigates the feasibility of using three previously published genome-wide association studies (GWAS) results on blood lipids to develop polygenic risk scores (PRS) for population samples from the European part of the Russian Federation. Methods: Two population samples were used in the study - one from the Ivanovo region (n = 1673) and one from the Vologda region (n = 817). We investigated three distinct approaches to PRS development: using the straightforward PRS approach with original effect sizes and fine-tuning with PRSice-2 and LDpred2. Results: In total, we constructed 56 PRS scales related to four lipid phenotypes: low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, total cholesterol, and triglyceride levels. Compared with previous results for the Russian population, we achieved an additional R2 increase of 2-4%, depending on the approach and lipid phenotype studied. Overall, the R2 PRS estimates approached those described for other populations. We also evaluated the clinical utility of blood lipid PRS for predicting carotid and femoral artery atherosclerosis. Specifically, we found that PRS for total cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and triglycerides were positively correlated with ultrasound parameters of carotid and femoral artery atherosclerosis (ρ = 0.09-0.13, p < 0.001), whereas PRS for high-density lipoprotein cholesterol were inversely correlated with the number of plaques in the femoral arteries (ρ = -0.08, p = 8.71 × 10-3). Conclusions: PRS fine-tuning using PRSice-2 add LDpred2 improves the performance of blood lipid PRS. Our study demonstrates the potential for further use of blood lipid PRS for prediction of atherosclerosis risk.

Advancements and limitations in polygenic risk score methods for genomic prediction: a scoping review

This scoping review aims to identify and evaluate the landscape of Polygenic Risk Score (PRS)-based methods for genomic prediction from 2013 to 2023, highlighting their advancements, key concepts, and existing gaps in knowledge, research, and technology. Over the past decade, various PRS-based methods have emerged, each employing different statistical frameworks aimed at enhancing prediction accuracy, processing speed and memory efficiency. Despite notable advancements, challenges persist, including unrealistic assumptions regarding sample sizes and the polygenicity of traits necessary for accurate predictions, as well as limitations in exploring hyper-parameter spaces and considering environmental interactions. We included studies focusing on PRS-based methods for risk prediction that underwent methodological evaluations using valid approaches and released computational tools/software. Additionally, we restricted our selection to studies involving human participants that were published in English language. This review followed the standard protocol recommended by Joanna Briggs Institute Reviewer's Manual, systematically searching Ovid MEDLINE, Ovid Embase, Scopus and Web of Science databases. Additionally, searches included grey literature sources like pre-print servers such as bioRxiv, and articles recommended by experts to ensure comprehensive and diverse coverage of relevant records. This study identified 34 studies detailing 37 genomic prediction methods, the majority of which rely on linkage disequilibrium (LD) information and necessitate hyper-parameter tuning. Nine methods integrate functional/gene annotation, while 12 are suitable for cross-ancestry genomic prediction, with only one considering gene-environment (GxE) interaction. While some methods require individual-level data, most leverage summary statistics, offering flexibility. Despite progress, challenges remain. These include computational complexity and the need for large sample sizes for high prediction accuracy. Furthermore, recent methods exhibit varying effectiveness across traits, with absolute accuracies often falling short of clinical utility. Transferability across ancestries varies, influenced by trait heritability and diversity of training data, while handling admixed populations remains challenging. Additionally, the absence of standard error measurements for individual PRSs, crucial in clinical settings, underscores a critical gap. Another issue is the lack of customizable graphical visualization tools among current software packages. While genomic prediction methods have advanced significantly, there is still room for improvement. Addressing current challenges and embracing future research directions will lead to the development of more universally applicable, robust, and clinically relevant genomic prediction tools.

Population Performance and Individual Agreement of Coronary Artery Disease Polygenic Risk Scores

Importance

Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) for coronary artery disease (CAD) are a growing clinical and commercial reality. Whether existing scores provide similar individual-level assessments of disease liability is a critical consideration for clinical implementation that remains uncharacterized.

Objective

Characterize the reliability of CAD PRSs that perform equivalently at the population level at predicting individual-level risk.

Design

Cross-sectional Study.

Setting

All of Us Research Program (AOU), Penn Medicine Biobank (PMBB), and UCLA ATLAS Precision Health Biobank.

Participants

Volunteers of diverse genetic backgrounds enrolled in AOU, PMBB, and UCLA with available electronic health record and genotyping data.

Exposures

Polygenic risk for CAD from previously published PRSs and new PRSs developed separately from the testing cohorts.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Sets of CAD PRSs that perform population prediction equivalently were identified by comparing calibration and discrimination (Brier score and AUROC) of generalized linear models of prevalent CAD using Bayesian analysis of variance. Among equivalently performing scores, individual-level agreement between risk estimates was tested with intraclass correlation (ICC) and Light's Kappa, measures of inter-rater reliability.

Results

50 PRSs were calculated for 171,095 AOU participants. When included in a model of prevalent CAD, 48 scores had practically equivalent Brier scores and AUROCs (region of practical equivalence = 0.02). Across these scores, 84% of participants had at least one score in both the top and bottom risk quintile. Continuous agreement of individual risk predictions from the 48 scores was poor, with an ICC of 0.351 (95% CI; 0.349, 0.352). Agreement between two statistically equivalent scores was moderate, with an ICC of 0.649 (95% CI; 0.646, 0.652). Light's Kappa, used to evaluate consistency of assignment to high-risk thresholds, did not exceed 0.56 (interpreted as 'fair') across statistically and practically equivalent scores. Repeating the analysis among 41,193 PMBB and 50,748 UCLA participants yielded different sets of statistically and practically equivalent scores which also lacked strong individual agreement.

Conclusions and Relevance

Across three diverse biobanks, CAD PRSs that performed equivalently at the population level produced unreliable individual risk estimates. Approaches to clinical implementation of CAD PRSs must consider the potential for discordant individual risk estimates from otherwise indistinguishable scores.

Optimizing and benchmarking polygenic risk scores with GWAS summary statistics

BACKGROUND

Polygenic risk score (PRS) is a major research topic in human genetics. However, a significant gap exists between PRS methodology and applications in practice due to often unavailable individual-level data for various PRS tasks including model fine-tuning, benchmarking, and ensemble learning.

RESULTS

We introduce an innovative statistical framework to optimize and benchmark PRS models using summary statistics of genome-wide association studies. This framework builds upon our previous work and can fine-tune virtually all existing PRS models while accounting for linkage disequilibrium. In addition, we provide an ensemble learning strategy named PUMAS-ensemble to combine multiple PRS models into an ensemble score without requiring external data for model fitting. Through extensive simulations and analysis of many complex traits in the UK Biobank, we demonstrate that this approach closely approximates gold-standard analytical strategies based on external validation, and substantially outperforms state-of-the-art PRS methods.

CONCLUSIONS

Our method is a powerful and general modeling technique that can continue to combine the best-performing PRS methods out there through ensemble learning and could become an integral component for all future PRS applications.

Variant Impact Predictor database (VIPdb), version 2: trends from three decades of genetic variant impact predictors

BACKGROUND

Variant interpretation is essential for identifying patients' disease-causing genetic variants amongst the millions detected in their genomes. Hundreds of Variant Impact Predictors (VIPs), also known as Variant Effect Predictors (VEPs), have been developed for this purpose, with a variety of methodologies and goals. To facilitate the exploration of available VIP options, we have created the Variant Impact Predictor database (VIPdb).

RESULTS

The Variant Impact Predictor database (VIPdb) version 2 presents a collection of VIPs developed over the past three decades, summarizing their characteristics, ClinGen calibrated scores, CAGI assessment results, publication details, access information, and citation patterns. We previously summarized 217 VIPs and their features in VIPdb in 2019. Building upon this foundation, we identified and categorized an additional 190 VIPs, resulting in a total of 407 VIPs in VIPdb version 2. The majority of the VIPs have the capacity to predict the impacts of single nucleotide variants and nonsynonymous variants. More VIPs tailored to predict the impacts of insertions and deletions have been developed since the 2010s. In contrast, relatively few VIPs are dedicated to the prediction of splicing, structural, synonymous, and regulatory variants. The increasing rate of citations to VIPs reflects the ongoing growth in their use, and the evolving trends in citations reveal development in the field and individual methods.

CONCLUSIONS

VIPdb version 2 summarizes 407 VIPs and their features, potentially facilitating VIP exploration for various variant interpretation applications. VIPdb is available at  https://genomeinterpretation.org/vipdb.

Evaluation of polygenic scoring methods in five biobanks shows larger variation between biobanks than methods and finds benefits of ensemble learning

Methods of estimating polygenic scores (PGSs) from genome-wide association studies are increasingly utilized. However, independent method evaluation is lacking, and method comparisons are often limited. Here, we evaluate polygenic scores derived via seven methods in five biobank studies (totaling about 1.2 million participants) across 16 diseases and quantitative traits, building on a reference-standardized framework. We conducted meta-analyses to quantify the effects of method choice, hyperparameter tuning, method ensembling, and the target biobank on PGS performance. We found that no single method consistently outperformed all others. PGS effect sizes were more variable between biobanks than between methods within biobanks when methods were well tuned. Differences between methods were largest for the two investigated autoimmune diseases, seropositive rheumatoid arthritis and type 1 diabetes. For most methods, cross-validation was more reliable for tuning hyperparameters than automatic tuning (without the use of target data). For a given target phenotype, elastic net models combining PGS across methods (ensemble PGS) tuned in the UK Biobank provided consistent, high, and cross-biobank transferable performance, increasing PGS effect sizes (β coefficients) by a median of 5.0% relative to LDpred2 and MegaPRS (the two best-performing single methods when tuned with cross-validation). Our interactively browsable online-results and open-source workflow prspipe provide a rich resource and reference for the analysis of polygenic scoring methods across biobanks.

Variant Impact Predictor database (VIPdb), version 2: Trends from 25 years of genetic variant impact predictors

Background

Variant interpretation is essential for identifying patients' disease-causing genetic variants amongst the millions detected in their genomes. Hundreds of Variant Impact Predictors (VIPs), also known as Variant Effect Predictors (VEPs), have been developed for this purpose, with a variety of methodologies and goals. To facilitate the exploration of available VIP options, we have created the Variant Impact Predictor database (VIPdb).

Results

The Variant Impact Predictor database (VIPdb) version 2 presents a collection of VIPs developed over the past 25 years, summarizing their characteristics, ClinGen calibrated scores, CAGI assessment results, publication details, access information, and citation patterns. We previously summarized 217 VIPs and their features in VIPdb in 2019. Building upon this foundation, we identified and categorized an additional 186 VIPs, resulting in a total of 403 VIPs in VIPdb version 2. The majority of the VIPs have the capacity to predict the impacts of single nucleotide variants and nonsynonymous variants. More VIPs tailored to predict the impacts of insertions and deletions have been developed since the 2010s. In contrast, relatively few VIPs are dedicated to the prediction of splicing, structural, synonymous, and regulatory variants. The increasing rate of citations to VIPs reflects the ongoing growth in their use, and the evolving trends in citations reveal development in the field and individual methods.

Conclusions

VIPdb version 2 summarizes 403 VIPs and their features, potentially facilitating VIP exploration for various variant interpretation applications.

Availability

VIPdb version 2 is available at https://genomeinterpretation.org/vipdb.

Single-cell genomics and regulatory networks for 388 human brains

Single-cell genomics is a powerful tool for studying heterogeneous tissues such as the brain. Yet little is understood about how genetic variants influence cell-level gene expression. Addressing this, we uniformly processed single-nuclei, multiomics datasets into a resource comprising >2.8 million nuclei from the prefrontal cortex across 388 individuals. For 28 cell types, we assessed population-level variation in expression and chromatin across gene families and drug targets. We identified >550,000 cell type-specific regulatory elements and >1.4 million single-cell expression quantitative trait loci, which we used to build cell-type regulatory and cell-to-cell communication networks. These networks manifest cellular changes in aging and neuropsychiatric disorders. We further constructed an integrative model accurately imputing single-cell expression and simulating perturbations; the model prioritized ~250 disease-risk genes and drug targets with associated cell types.

Genome-wide association analyses of breast cancer in women of African ancestry identify new susceptibility loci and improve risk prediction

We performed genome-wide association studies of breast cancer including 18,034 cases and 22,104 controls of African ancestry. Genetic variants at 12 loci were associated with breast cancer risk (P < 5 × 10-8), including associations of a low-frequency missense variant rs61751053 in ARHGEF38 with overall breast cancer (odds ratio (OR) = 1.48) and a common variant rs76664032 at chromosome 2q14.2 with triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) (OR = 1.30). Approximately 15.4% of cases with TNBC carried six risk alleles in three genome-wide association study-identified TNBC risk variants, with an OR of 4.21 (95% confidence interval = 2.66-7.03) compared with those carrying fewer than two risk alleles. A polygenic risk score (PRS) showed an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.60 for the prediction of breast cancer risk, which outperformed PRS derived using data from females of European ancestry. Our study markedly increases the population diversity in genetic studies for breast cancer and demonstrates the utility of PRS for risk prediction in females of African ancestry.

Single-cell genomics and regulatory networks for 388 human brains

Single-cell genomics is a powerful tool for studying heterogeneous tissues such as the brain. Yet, little is understood about how genetic variants influence cell-level gene expression. Addressing this, we uniformly processed single-nuclei, multi-omics datasets into a resource comprising >2.8M nuclei from the prefrontal cortex across 388 individuals. For 28 cell types, we assessed population-level variation in expression and chromatin across gene families and drug targets. We identified >550K cell-type-specific regulatory elements and >1.4M single-cell expression-quantitative-trait loci, which we used to build cell-type regulatory and cell-to-cell communication networks. These networks manifest cellular changes in aging and neuropsychiatric disorders. We further constructed an integrative model accurately imputing single-cell expression and simulating perturbations; the model prioritized ~250 disease-risk genes and drug targets with associated cell types.

Lingo: an automated, web-based deep phenotyping platform for language ability

Background

Language and the ability to communicate effectively are key factors in mental health and well-being. Despite this critical importance, research on language is limited by the lack of a scalable phenotyping toolkit.

Methods

Here, we describe and showcase Lingo - a flexible online battery of language and nonverbal reasoning skills based on seven widely used tasks (COWAT, picture narration, vocal rhythm entrainment, rapid automatized naming, following directions, sentence repetition, and nonverbal reasoning). The current version of Lingo takes approximately 30 minutes to complete, is entirely open source, and allows for a wide variety of performance metrics to be extracted. We asked > 1,300 individuals from multiple samples to complete Lingo, then investigated the validity and utility of the resulting data.

Results

We conducted an exploratory factor analysis across 14 features derived from the seven assessments, identifying five factors. Four of the five factors showed acceptable test-retest reliability (Pearson's R > 0.7). Factor 2 showed the highest reliability (Pearson's R = 0.95) and loaded primarily on sentence repetition task performance. We validated Lingo with objective measures of language ability by comparing performance to gold-standard assessments: CELF-5 and the VABS-3. Factor 2 was significantly associated with the CELF-5 "core language ability" scale (Pearson's R = 0.77, p-value < 0.05) and the VABS-3 "communication" scale (Pearson's R = 0.74, p-value < 0.05). Factor 2 was positively associated with phenotypic and genetic measures of socieconomic status. Interestingly, we found the parents of children with language impairments had lower Factor 2 scores (p-value < 0.01). Finally, we found Lingo factor scores were significantly predictive of numerous psychiatric and neurodevelopmental conditions.

Conclusions

Together, these analyses support Lingo as a powerful platform for scalable deep phenotyping of language and other cognitive abilities. Additionally, exploratory analyses provide supporting evidence for the heritability of language ability and the complex relationship between mental health and language.