International Pooled Analysis of Leisure-Time Physical Activity and Premenopausal Breast Cancer in Women From 19 Cohorts

PURPOSE

There is strong evidence that leisure-time physical activity is protective against postmenopausal breast cancer risk but the association with premenopausal breast cancer is less clear. The purpose of this study was to examine the association of physical activity with the risk of developing premenopausal breast cancer.

METHODS

We pooled individual-level data on self-reported leisure-time physical activity across 19 cohort studies comprising 547,601 premenopausal women, with 10,231 incident cases of breast cancer. Multivariable Cox regression was used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs for associations of leisure-time physical activity with breast cancer incidence. HRs for high versus low levels of activity were based on a comparison of risk at the 90th versus 10th percentiles of activity. We assessed the linearity of the relationship and examined subtype-specific associations and effect modification across strata of breast cancer risk factors, including adiposity.

RESULTS

Over a median 11.5 years of follow-up (IQR, 8.0-16.1 years), high versus low levels of leisure-time physical activity were associated with a 6% (HR, 0.94 [95% CI, 0.89 to 0.99]) and a 10% (HR, 0.90 [95% CI, 0.85 to 0.95]) reduction in breast cancer risk, before and after adjustment for BMI, respectively. Tests of nonlinearity suggested an approximately linear relationship (Pnonlinearity = .94). The inverse association was particularly strong for human epidermal growth factor receptor 2-enriched breast cancer (HR, 0.57 [95% CI, 0.39 to 0.84]; Phet = .07). Associations did not vary significantly across strata of breast cancer risk factors, including subgroups of adiposity.

CONCLUSION

This large, pooled analysis of cohort studies adds to evidence that engagement in higher levels of leisure-time physical activity may lead to reduced premenopausal breast cancer risk.

Impact of weight loss on cancer-related proteins in serum: results from a cluster randomised controlled trial of individuals with type 2 diabetes

BACKGROUND

Type 2 diabetes is associated with higher risk of several cancer types. However, the biological intermediates driving this relationship are not fully understood. As novel interventions for treating and managing type 2 diabetes become increasingly available, whether they also disrupt the pathways leading to increased cancer risk is currently unknown. We investigated the effect of a type 2 diabetes intervention, in the form of intentional weight loss, on circulating proteins associated with cancer risk to gain insight into potential mechanisms linking type 2 diabetes and adiposity with cancer development.

METHODS

Fasting serum samples from participants with diabetes enrolled in the Diabetes Remission Clinical Trial (DiRECT) receiving the Counterweight-Plus weight-loss programme (intervention, N = 117, mean weight-loss 10 kg, 46% diabetes remission) or best-practice care by guidelines (control, N = 143, mean weight-loss 1 kg, 4% diabetes remission) were subject to proteomic analysis using the Olink Oncology-II platform (48% of participants were female; 52% male). To identify proteins which may be altered by the weight-loss intervention, the difference in protein levels between groups at baseline and 1 year was examined using linear regression. Mendelian randomization (MR) was performed to extend these results to evaluate cancer risk and elucidate possible biological mechanisms linking type 2 diabetes and cancer development. MR analyses were conducted using independent datasets, including large cancer meta-analyses, UK Biobank, and FinnGen, to estimate potential causal relationships between proteins modified during intentional weight loss and the risk of colorectal, breast, endometrial, gallbladder, liver, and pancreatic cancers.

FINDINGS

Nine proteins were modified by the intervention: glycoprotein Nmb; furin; Wnt inhibitory factor 1; toll-like receptor 3; pancreatic prohormone; erb-b2 receptor tyrosine kinase 2; hepatocyte growth factor; endothelial cell specific molecule 1 and Ret proto-oncogene (Holm corrected P-value <0.05). Mendelian randomization analyses indicated a causal relationship between predicted circulating furin and glycoprotein Nmb on breast cancer risk (odds ratio (OR) = 0.81, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.67-0.99, P-value = 0.03; and OR = 0.88, 95% CI = 0.78-0.99, P-value = 0.04 respectively), though these results were not supported in sensitivity analyses examining violations of MR assumptions.

INTERPRETATION

Intentional weight loss among individuals with recently diagnosed diabetes may modify levels of cancer-related proteins in serum. Further evaluation of the proteins identified in this analysis could reveal molecular pathways that mediate the effect of adiposity and type 2 diabetes on cancer risk.

FUNDING

The main sources of funding for this work were Diabetes UK, Cancer Research UK, World Cancer Research Fund, and Wellcome.

Association between circulating inflammatory markers and adult cancer risk: a Mendelian randomization analysis

BACKGROUND

Tumour-promoting inflammation is a "hallmark" of cancer and conventional epidemiological studies have reported links between various inflammatory markers and cancer risk. The causal nature of these relationships and, thus, the suitability of these markers as intervention targets for cancer prevention is unclear.

METHODS

We meta-analysed 6 genome-wide association studies of circulating inflammatory markers comprising 59,969 participants of European ancestry. We then used combined cis-Mendelian randomization and colocalisation analysis to evaluate the causal role of 66 circulating inflammatory markers in risk of 30 adult cancers in 338,294 cancer cases and up to 1,238,345 controls. Genetic instruments for inflammatory markers were constructed using genome-wide significant (P < 5.0 × 10-8) cis-acting SNPs (i.e., in or ±250 kb from the gene encoding the relevant protein) in weak linkage disequilibrium (LD, r2 < 0.10). Effect estimates were generated using inverse-variance weighted random-effects models and standard errors were inflated to account for weak LD between variants with reference to the 1000 Genomes Phase 3 CEU panel. A false discovery rate (FDR)-corrected P-value ("q-value") <0.05 was used as a threshold to define "strong evidence" to support associations and 0.05 ≤ q-value < 0.20 to define "suggestive evidence". A colocalisation posterior probability (PPH4) >70% was employed to indicate support for shared causal variants across inflammatory markers and cancer outcomes. Findings were replicated in the FinnGen study and then pooled using meta-analysis.

FINDINGS

We found strong evidence to support an association of genetically-proxied circulating pro-adrenomedullin concentrations with increased breast cancer risk (OR: 1.19, 95% CI: 1.10-1.29, q-value = 0.033, PPH4 = 84.3%) and suggestive evidence to support associations of interleukin-23 receptor concentrations with increased pancreatic cancer risk (OR: 1.42, 95% CI: 1.20-1.69, q-value = 0.055, PPH4 = 73.9%), prothrombin concentrations with decreased basal cell carcinoma risk (OR: 0.66, 95% CI: 0.53-0.81, q-value = 0.067, PPH4 = 81.8%), and interleukin-1 receptor-like 1 concentrations with decreased triple-negative breast cancer risk (OR: 0.92, 95% CI: 0.88-0.97, q-value = 0.15, PPH4 = 85.6%). These findings were replicated in pooled analyses with the FinnGen study. Though suggestive evidence was found to support an association of macrophage migration inhibitory factor concentrations with increased bladder cancer risk (OR: 2.46, 95% CI: 1.48-4.10, q-value = 0.072, PPH4 = 76.1%), this finding was not replicated when pooled with the FinnGen study. For 22 of 30 cancer outcomes examined, there was little evidence (q-value ≥0.20) that any of the 66 circulating inflammatory markers examined were associated with cancer risk.

INTERPRETATION

Our comprehensive joint Mendelian randomization and colocalisation analysis of the role of circulating inflammatory markers in cancer risk identified potential roles for 4 circulating inflammatory markers in risk of 4 site-specific cancers. Contrary to reports from some prior conventional epidemiological studies, we found little evidence of association of circulating inflammatory markers with the majority of site-specific cancers evaluated.

FUNDING

Cancer Research UK (C68933/A28534, C18281/A29019, PPRCPJT∖100005), World Cancer Research Fund (IIG_FULL_2020_022), National Institute for Health Research (NIHR202411, BRC-1215-20011), Medical Research Council (MC_UU_00011/1, MC_UU_00011/3, MC_UU_00011/6, and MC_UU_00011/4), Academy of Finland Project 326291, European Union's Horizon 2020 grant agreement no. 848158 (EarlyCause), French National Cancer Institute (INCa SHSESP20, 2020-076), Versus Arthritis (21173, 21754, 21755), National Institutes of Health (U19 CA203654), National Cancer Institute (U19CA203654).

Observational and genetic associations between cardiorespiratory fitness and cancer: a UK Biobank and international consortia study

BACKGROUND

The association of fitness with cancer risk is not clear.

METHODS

We used Cox proportional hazards models to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for risk of lung, colorectal, endometrial, breast, and prostate cancer in a subset of UK Biobank participants who completed a submaximal fitness test in 2009-12 (N = 72,572). We also investigated relationships using two-sample Mendelian randomisation (MR), odds ratios (ORs) were estimated using the inverse-variance weighted method.

RESULTS

After a median of 11 years of follow-up, 4290 cancers of interest were diagnosed. A 3.5 ml O2⋅min-1⋅kg-1 total-body mass increase in fitness (equivalent to 1 metabolic equivalent of task (MET), approximately 0.5 standard deviation (SD)) was associated with lower risks of endometrial (HR = 0.81, 95% CI: 0.73-0.89), colorectal (0.94, 0.90-0.99), and breast cancer (0.96, 0.92-0.99). In MR analyses, a 0.5 SD increase in genetically predicted O2⋅min-1⋅kg-1 fat-free mass was associated with a lower risk of breast cancer (OR = 0.92, 95% CI: 0.86-0.98). After adjusting for adiposity, both the observational and genetic associations were attenuated.

DISCUSSION

Higher fitness levels may reduce risks of endometrial, colorectal, and breast cancer, though relationships with adiposity are complex and may mediate these relationships. Increasing fitness, including via changes in body composition, may be an effective strategy for cancer prevention.

Evaluation of circulating plasma proteins in breast cancer using Mendelian randomisation

Biomarkers for early detection of breast cancer may complement population screening approaches to enable earlier and more precise treatment. The blood proteome is an important source for biomarker discovery but so far, few proteins have been identified with breast cancer risk. Here, we measure 2929 unique proteins in plasma from 598 women selected from the Karolinska Mammography Project to explore the association between protein levels, clinical characteristics, and gene variants, and to identify proteins with a causal role in breast cancer. We present 812 cis-acting protein quantitative trait loci for 737 proteins which are used as instruments in Mendelian randomisation analyses of breast cancer risk. Of those, we present five proteins (CD160, DNPH1, LAYN, LRRC37A2 and TLR1) that show a potential causal role in breast cancer risk with confirmatory results in independent cohorts. Our study suggests that these proteins should be further explored as biomarkers and potential drug targets in breast cancer.

Kidney Function and Risk of Renal Cell Carcinoma

BACKGROUND

We evaluated the temporal association between kidney function, assessed by estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), and the risk of incident renal cell carcinoma (RCC). We also evaluated whether eGFR could improve RCC risk discrimination beyond established risk factors.

METHODS

We analyzed the UK Biobank cohort, including 463,178 participants of whom 1,447 were diagnosed with RCC during 5,696,963 person-years of follow-up. We evaluated the temporal association between eGFR and RCC risk using flexible parametric survival models, adjusted for C-reactive protein and RCC risk factors. eGFR was calculated from creatinine and cystatin C levels.

RESULTS

Lower eGFR, an indication of poor kidney function, was associated with higher RCC risk when measured up to 5 years prior to diagnosis. The RCC HR per SD decrease in eGFR when measured 1 year before diagnosis was 1.26 [95% confidence interval (95% CI), 1.16-1.37], and 1.11 (95% CI, 1.05-1.17) when measured 5 years before diagnosis. Adding eGFR to the RCC risk model provided a small improvement in risk discrimination 1 year before diagnosis with an AUC of 0.73 (95% CI, 0.67-0.84) compared with the published model (0.69; 95% CI, 0.63-0.79).

CONCLUSIONS

This study demonstrated that kidney function markers are associated with RCC risk, but the nature of these associations are consistent with reversed causality. Markers of kidney function provided limited improvements in RCC risk discrimination beyond established risk factors.

IMPACT

eGFR may be of potential use to identify individuals in the extremes of the risk distribution.

Identifying proteomic risk factors for overall, aggressive and early onset prostate cancer using Mendelian randomization and tumor spatial transcriptomics

Background

Understanding the role of circulating proteins in prostate cancer risk can reveal key biological pathways and identify novel targets for cancer prevention.

Methods

We investigated the association of 2,002 genetically predicted circulating protein levels with risk of prostate cancer overall, and of aggressive and early onset disease, using cis-pQTL Mendelian randomization (MR) and colocalization. Findings for proteins with support from both MR, after correction for multiple-testing, and colocalization were replicated using two independent cancer GWAS, one of European and one of African ancestry. Proteins with evidence of prostate-specific tissue expression were additionally investigated using spatial transcriptomic data in prostate tumor tissue to assess their role in tumor aggressiveness. Finally, we mapped risk proteins to drug and ongoing clinical trials targets.

Results

We identified 20 proteins genetically linked to prostate cancer risk (14 for overall [8 specific], 7 for aggressive [3 specific], and 8 for early onset disease [2 specific]), of which a majority were novel and replicated. Among these were proteins associated with aggressive disease, such as PPA2 [Odds Ratio (OR) per 1 SD increment = 2.13, 95% CI: 1.54-2.93], PYY [OR = 1.87, 95% CI: 1.43-2.44] and PRSS3 [OR = 0.80, 95% CI: 0.73-0.89], and those associated with early onset disease, including EHPB1 [OR = 2.89, 95% CI: 1.99-4.21], POGLUT3 [OR = 0.76, 95% CI: 0.67-0.86] and TPM3 [OR = 0.47, 95% CI: 0.34-0.64]. We confirm an inverse association of MSMB with prostate cancer overall [OR = 0.81, 95% CI: 0.80-0.82], and also find an inverse association with both aggressive [OR = 0.84, 95% CI: 0.82-0.86] and early onset disease [OR = 0.71, 95% CI: 0.68-0.74]. Using spatial transcriptomics data, we identified MSMB as the genome-wide top-most predictive gene to distinguish benign regions from high grade cancer regions that had five-fold lower MSMB expression. Additionally, ten proteins that were associated with prostate cancer risk mapped to existing therapeutic interventions.

Conclusion

Our findings emphasize the importance of proteomics for improving our understanding of prostate cancer etiology and of opportunities for novel therapeutic interventions. Additionally, we demonstrate the added benefit of in-depth functional analyses to triangulate the role of risk proteins in the clinical aggressiveness of prostate tumors. Using these integrated methods, we identify a subset of risk proteins associated with aggressive and early onset disease as priorities for investigation for the future prevention and treatment of prostate cancer.

Lung cancer risk discrimination of prediagnostic proteomics measurements compared with existing prediction tools

BACKGROUND

We sought to develop a proteomics-based risk model for lung cancer and evaluate its risk-discriminatory performance in comparison with a smoking-based risk model (PLCOm2012) and a commercially available autoantibody biomarker test.

METHODS

We designed a case-control study nested in 6 prospective cohorts, including 624 lung cancer participants who donated blood samples at most 3 years prior to lung cancer diagnosis and 624 smoking-matched cancer free participants who were assayed for 302 proteins. We used 470 case-control pairs from 4 cohorts to select proteins and train a protein-based risk model. We subsequently used 154 case-control pairs from 2 cohorts to compare the risk-discriminatory performance of the protein-based model with that of the Early Cancer Detection Test (EarlyCDT)-Lung and the PLCOm2012 model using receiver operating characteristics analysis and by estimating models' sensitivity. All tests were 2-sided.

RESULTS

The area under the curve for the protein-based risk model in the validation sample was 0.75 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.70 to 0.81) compared with 0.64 (95% CI = 0.57 to 0.70) for the PLCOm2012 model (Pdifference = .001). The EarlyCDT-Lung had a sensitivity of 14% (95% CI = 8.2% to 19%) and a specificity of 86% (95% CI = 81% to 92%) for incident lung cancer. At the same specificity of 86%, the sensitivity for the protein-based risk model was estimated at 49% (95% CI = 41% to 57%) and 30% (95% CI = 23% to 37%) for the PLCOm2012 model.

CONCLUSION

Circulating proteins showed promise in predicting incident lung cancer and outperformed a standard risk prediction model and the commercialized EarlyCDT-Lung.

Alcohol intake and endogenous sex hormones in women: meta-analysis of cohort studies and Mendelian randomization

Background

The mechanisms underlying alcohol-induced breast carcinogenesis are not fully understood but may involve hormonal changes.

Methods

We investigated cross-sectional associations between self-reported alcohol intake and serum or plasma concentrations of oestradiol, oestrone, progesterone (in pre-menopausal women only), testosterone, androstenedione, DHEAS (dehydroepiandrosterone sulphate) and SHBG (sex hormone binding globulin) in 45 431 pre-menopausal and 173 476 post-menopausal women. We performed multivariable linear regression separately for UK Biobank, EPIC (European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition) and EHBCCG (Endogenous Hormones and Breast Cancer Collaborative Group), and meta-analysed the results. For testosterone and SHBG, we also conducted two-sample Mendelian Randomization (MR) and colocalisation using the ADH1B (Alcohol Dehydrogenase 1B) variant (rs1229984).

Results

Alcohol intake was positively, though weakly, associated with all hormones (except progesterone in pre-menopausal women), with increments in concentrations per 10 g/day increment in alcohol intake ranging from 1.7% for luteal oestradiol to 6.6% for post-menopausal DHEAS. There was an inverse association of alcohol with SHBG in post-menopausal women but a small positive association in pre-menopausal women. MR identified positive associations of alcohol intake with total testosterone (difference per 10 g/day increment: 4.1%; 95% CI: 0.6%, 7.6%) and free testosterone (7.8%; 4.1%, 11.5%), and an inverse association with SHBG (-8.1%; -11.3%, -4.9%). Colocalisation suggested a shared causal locus at ADH1B between alcohol intake and higher free testosterone and lower SHBG (PP4: 0.81 and 0.97 respectively).

Conclusions

Alcohol intake was associated with small increases in sex hormone concentrations, including bioavailable fractions, which may contribute to its effect on breast cancer risk.

The blood proteome of imminent lung cancer diagnosis

Identification of risk biomarkers may enhance early detection of smoking-related lung cancer. We measured between 392 and 1,162 proteins in blood samples drawn at most three years before diagnosis in 731 smoking-matched case-control sets nested within six prospective cohorts from the US, Europe, Singapore, and Australia. We identify 36 proteins with independently reproducible associations with risk of imminent lung cancer diagnosis (all p < 4 × 10-5). These include a few markers (e.g. CA-125/MUC-16 and CEACAM5/CEA) that have previously been reported in studies using pre-diagnostic blood samples for lung cancer. The 36 proteins include several growth factors (e.g. HGF, IGFBP-1, IGFP-2), tumor necrosis factor-receptors (e.g. TNFRSF6B, TNFRSF13B), and chemokines and cytokines (e.g. CXL17, GDF-15, SCF). The odds ratio per standard deviation range from 1.31 for IGFBP-1 (95% CI: 1.17-1.47) to 2.43 for CEACAM5 (95% CI: 2.04-2.89). We map the 36 proteins to the hallmarks of cancer and find that activation of invasion and metastasis, proliferative signaling, tumor-promoting inflammation, and angiogenesis are most frequently implicated.

Evaluation of pre-diagnostic blood protein measurements for predicting survival after lung cancer diagnosis

BACKGROUND

To evaluate whether circulating proteins are associated with survival after lung cancer diagnosis, and whether they can improve prediction of prognosis.

METHODS

We measured up to 1159 proteins in blood samples from 708 participants in 6 cohorts. Samples were collected within 3 years prior to lung cancer diagnosis. We used Cox proportional hazards models to identify proteins associated with overall mortality after lung cancer diagnosis. To evaluate model performance, we used a round-robin approach in which models were fit in 5 cohorts and evaluated in the 6th cohort. Specifically, we fit a model including 5 proteins and clinical parameters and compared its performance with clinical parameters only.

FINDINGS

There were 86 proteins nominally associated with mortality (p < 0.05), but only CDCP1 remained statistically significant after accounting for multiple testing (hazard ratio per standard deviation: 1.19, 95% CI: 1.10-1.30, unadjusted p = 0.00004). The external C-index for the protein-based model was 0.63 (95% CI: 0.61-0.66), compared with 0.62 (95% CI: 0.59-0.64) for the model with clinical parameters only. Inclusion of proteins did not provide a statistically significant improvement in discrimination (C-index difference: 0.015, 95% CI: -0.003 to 0.035).

INTERPRETATION

Blood proteins measured within 3 years prior to lung cancer diagnosis were not strongly associated with lung cancer survival, nor did they importantly improve prediction of prognosis beyond clinical information.

FUNDING

No explicit funding for this study. Authors and data collection supported by the US National Cancer Institute (U19CA203654), INCA (France, 2019-1-TABAC-01), Cancer Research Foundation of Northern Sweden (AMP19-962), and Swedish Department of Health Ministry.

Association between circulating inflammatory markers and adult cancer risk: a Mendelian randomization analysis

Background

Tumour-promoting inflammation is a "hallmark" of cancer and conventional epidemiological studies have reported links between various inflammatory markers and cancer risk. The causal nature of these relationships and, thus, the suitability of these markers as intervention targets for cancer prevention is unclear.

Methods

We meta-analysed 6 genome-wide association studies of circulating inflammatory markers comprising 59,969 participants of European ancestry. We then used combined cis-Mendelian randomization and colocalisation analysis to evaluate the causal role of 66 circulating inflammatory markers in risk of 30 adult cancers in 338,162 cancer cases and up to 824,556 controls. Genetic instruments for inflammatory markers were constructed using genome-wide significant (P < 5.0 x 10-8) cis-acting SNPs (i.e. in or ±250 kb from the gene encoding the relevant protein) in weak linkage disequilibrium (LD, r2 < 0.10). Effect estimates were generated using inverse-variance weighted random-effects models and standard errors were inflated to account for weak LD between variants with reference to the 1000 Genomes Phase 3 CEU panel. A false discovery rate (FDR)-corrected P-value ("q-value") < 0.05 was used as a threshold to define "strong evidence" to support associations and 0.05 ≤ q-value < 0.20 to define "suggestive evidence". A colocalisation posterior probability (PPH4) > 70% was employed to indicate support for shared causal variants across inflammatory markers and cancer outcomes.

Results

We found strong evidence to support an association of genetically-proxied circulating pro-adrenomedullin concentrations with increased breast cancer risk (OR 1.19, 95% CI 1.10-1.29, q-value=0.033, PPH4=84.3%) and suggestive evidence to support associations of interleukin-23 receptor concentrations with increased pancreatic cancer risk (OR 1.42, 95% CI 1.20-1.69, q-value=0.055, PPH4=73.9%), prothrombin concentrations with decreased basal cell carcinoma risk (OR 0.66, 95% CI 0.53-0.81, q-value=0.067, PPH4=81.8%), macrophage migration inhibitory factor concentrations with increased bladder cancer risk (OR 1.14, 95% CI 1.05-1.23, q-value=0.072, PPH4=76.1%), and interleukin-1 receptor-like 1 concentrations with decreased triple-negative breast cancer risk (OR 0.92, 95% CI 0.88-0.97, q-value=0.15), PPH4=85.6%). For 22 of 30 cancer outcomes examined, there was little evidence (q-value ≥ 0.20) that any of the 66 circulating inflammatory markers examined were associated with cancer risk.

Conclusion

Our comprehensive joint Mendelian randomization and colocalisation analysis of the role of circulating inflammatory markers in cancer risk identified potential roles for 5 circulating inflammatory markers in risk of 5 site-specific cancers. Contrary to reports from some prior conventional epidemiological studies, we found little evidence of association of circulating inflammatory markers with the majority of site-specific cancers evaluated.

Common genetic variations in telomere length genes and lung cancer: a Mendelian randomisation study and its novel application in lung tumour transcriptome

Background

Genome-wide association studies (GWASs) have identified genetic susceptibility variants for both leukocyte telomere length (LTL) and lung cancer susceptibility. Our study aims to explore the shared genetic basis between these traits and investigate their impact on somatic environment of lung tumours.

Methods

We performed genetic correlation, Mendelian randomisation (MR), and colocalisation analyses using the largest available GWASs summary statistics of LTL (N=464,716) and lung cancer (N=29,239 cases and 56,450 controls). Principal components analysis based on RNA-sequencing data was used to summarise gene expression profile in lung adenocarcinoma cases from TCGA (N=343).

Results

Although there was no genome-wide genetic correlation between LTL and lung cancer risk, longer LTL conferred an increased risk of lung cancer regardless of smoking status in the MR analyses, particularly for lung adenocarcinoma. Of the 144 LTL genetic instruments, 12 colocalised with lung adenocarcinoma risk and revealed novel susceptibility loci, including MPHOSPH6, PRPF6, and POLI. The polygenic risk score for LTL was associated with a specific gene expression profile (PC2) in lung adenocarcinoma tumours. The aspect of PC2 associated with longer LTL was also associated with being female, never smokers, and earlier tumour stages. PC2 was strongly associated with cell proliferation score and genomic features related to genome stability, including copy number changes and telomerase activity.

Conclusions

This study identified an association between longer genetically predicted LTL and lung cancer and sheds light on the potential molecular mechanisms related to LTL in lung adenocarcinomas.

Funding

Institut National du Cancer (GeniLuc2017-1-TABAC-03-CIRC-1-TABAC17-022), INTEGRAL/NIH (5U19CA203654-03), CRUK (C18281/A29019), and Agence Nationale pour la Recherche (ANR-10-INBS-09).

Circulating amino acid levels and colorectal cancer risk in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition and UK Biobank cohorts

BACKGROUND

Amino acid metabolism is dysregulated in colorectal cancer patients; however, it is not clear whether pre-diagnostic levels of amino acids are associated with subsequent risk of colorectal cancer. We investigated circulating levels of amino acids in relation to colorectal cancer risk in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) and UK Biobank cohorts.

METHODS

Concentrations of 13-21 amino acids were determined in baseline fasting plasma or serum samples in 654 incident colorectal cancer cases and 654 matched controls in EPIC. Amino acids associated with colorectal cancer risk following adjustment for the false discovery rate (FDR) were then tested for associations in the UK Biobank, for which measurements of 9 amino acids were available in 111,323 participants, of which 1221 were incident colorectal cancer cases.

RESULTS

Histidine levels were inversely associated with colorectal cancer risk in EPIC (odds ratio [OR] 0.80 per standard deviation [SD], 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.69-0.92, FDR P-value=0.03) and in UK Biobank (HR 0.93 per SD, 95% CI 0.87-0.99, P-value=0.03). Glutamine levels were borderline inversely associated with colorectal cancer risk in EPIC (OR 0.85 per SD, 95% CI 0.75-0.97, FDR P-value=0.08) and similarly in UK Biobank (HR 0.95, 95% CI 0.89-1.01, P=0.09) In both cohorts, associations changed only minimally when cases diagnosed within 2 or 5 years of follow-up were excluded.

CONCLUSIONS

Higher circulating levels of histidine were associated with a lower risk of colorectal cancer in two large prospective cohorts. Further research to ascertain the role of histidine metabolism and potentially that of glutamine in colorectal cancer development is warranted.

Circulating insulin-like growth factors and risks of overall, aggressive and early-onset prostate cancer: a collaborative analysis of 20 prospective studies and Mendelian randomization analysis

BACKGROUND

Previous studies had limited power to assess the associations of circulating insulin-like growth factors (IGFs) and IGF-binding proteins (IGFBPs) with clinically relevant prostate cancer as a primary endpoint, and the association of genetically predicted IGF-I with aggressive prostate cancer is not known. We aimed to investigate the associations of IGF-I, IGF-II, IGFBP-1, IGFBP-2 and IGFBP-3 concentrations with overall, aggressive and early-onset prostate cancer.

METHODS

Prospective analysis of biomarkers using the Endogenous Hormones, Nutritional Biomarkers and Prostate Cancer Collaborative Group dataset (up to 20 studies, 17 009 prostate cancer cases, including 2332 aggressive cases). Odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for prostate cancer were estimated using conditional logistic regression. For IGF-I, two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis was undertaken using instruments identified using UK Biobank (158 444 men) and outcome data from PRACTICAL (up to 85 554 cases, including 15 167 aggressive cases). Additionally, we used colocalization to rule out confounding by linkage disequilibrium.

RESULTS

In observational analyses, IGF-I was positively associated with risks of overall (OR per 1 SD = 1.09: 95% CI 1.07, 1.11), aggressive (1.09: 1.03, 1.16) and possibly early-onset disease (1.11: 1.00, 1.24); associations were similar in MR analyses (OR per 1 SD = 1.07: 1.00, 1.15; 1.10: 1.01, 1.20; and 1.13; 0.98, 1.30, respectively). Colocalization also indicated a shared signal for IGF-I and prostate cancer (PP4: 99%). Men with higher IGF-II (1.06: 1.02, 1.11) and IGFBP-3 (1.08: 1.04, 1.11) had higher risks of overall prostate cancer, whereas higher IGFBP-1 was associated with a lower risk (0.95: 0.91, 0.99); these associations were attenuated following adjustment for IGF-I.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings support the role of IGF-I in the development of prostate cancer, including for aggressive disease.

Design and methodological considerations for biomarker discovery and validation in the Integrative Analysis of Lung Cancer Etiology and Risk (INTEGRAL) Program

The Integrative Analysis of Lung Cancer Etiology and Risk (INTEGRAL) program is an NCI-funded initiative with an objective to develop tools to optimize low-dose CT (LDCT) lung cancer screening. Here, we describe the rationale and design for the Risk Biomarker and Nodule Malignancy projects within INTEGRAL. The overarching goal of these projects is to systematically investigate circulating protein markers to include on a panel for use (i) pre-LDCT, to identify people likely to benefit from screening, and (ii) post-LDCT, to differentiate benign versus malignant nodules. To identify informative proteins, the Risk Biomarker project measured 1161 proteins in a nested-case control study within 2 prospective cohorts (n = 252 lung cancer cases and 252 controls) and replicated associations for a subset of proteins in 4 cohorts (n = 479 cases and 479 controls). Eligible participants had a current or former history of smoking and cases were diagnosed up to 3 years following blood draw. The Nodule Malignancy project measured 1078 proteins among participants with a heavy smoking history within four LDCT screening studies (n = 425 cases diagnosed up to 5 years following blood draw, 430 benign-nodule controls, and 398 nodule-free controls). The INTEGRAL panel will enable absolute quantification of 21 proteins. We will evaluate its performance in the Risk Biomarker project using a case-cohort study including 14 cohorts (n = 1696 cases and 2926 subcohort representatives), and in the Nodule Malignancy project within five LDCT screening studies (n = 675 cases, 680 benign-nodule controls, and 648 nodule-free controls). Future progress to advance lung cancer early detection biomarkers will require carefully designed validation, translational, and comparative studies.

Serum Extracellular Vesicle-Derived microRNAs as Potential Biomarkers for Pleural Mesothelioma in a European Prospective Study

Malignant pleural mesothelioma (MPM) is an aggressive cancer with a dismal prognosis. Early therapeutic interventions could improve patient outcomes. We aimed to identify a pattern of microRNAs (miRNAs) as potential early non-invasive markers of MPM. In a case-control study nested in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition cohort, we screened the whole miRNome in serum extracellular vesicles (EVs) of preclinical MPM cases. In a subgroup of 20 preclinical samples collected five years prior MPM diagnosis, we observed an upregulation of miR-11400 (fold change (FC) = 2.6, adjusted p-value = 0.01), miR-148a-3p (FC = 1.5, p-value = 0.001), and miR-409-3p (FC = 1.5, p-value = 0.04) relative to matched controls. The 3-miRNA panel showed a good classification capacity with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.81 (specificity = 0.75, sensitivity = 0.70). The diagnostic ability of the model was also evaluated in an independent retrospective cohort, yielding a higher predictive power (AUC = 0.86). A signature of EV miRNA can be detected up to five years before MPM; moreover, the identified miRNAs could provide functional insights into the molecular changes related to the late carcinogenic process, preceding MPM development.

Machine learning in sudden cardiac death risk prediction: a systematic review

AIMS

Most patients who receive implantable cardioverter defibrillators (ICDs) for primary prevention do not receive therapy during the lifespan of the ICD, whilst up to 50% of sudden cardiac death (SCD) occur in individuals who are considered low risk by conventional criteria. Machine learning offers a novel approach to risk stratification for ICD assignment.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Systematic search was performed in MEDLINE, Embase, Emcare, CINAHL, Cochrane Library, OpenGrey, MedrXiv, arXiv, Scopus, and Web of Science. Studies modelling SCD risk prediction within days to years using machine learning were eligible for inclusion. Transparency and quality of reporting (TRIPOD) and risk of bias (PROBAST) were assessed. A total of 4356 studies were screened with 11 meeting the inclusion criteria with heterogeneous populations, methods, and outcome measures preventing meta-analysis. The study size ranged from 122 to 124 097 participants. Input data sources included demographic, clinical, electrocardiogram, electrophysiological, imaging, and genetic data ranging from 4 to 72 variables per model. The most common outcome metric reported was the area under the receiver operator characteristic (n = 7) ranging between 0.71 and 0.96. In six studies comparing machine learning models and regression, machine learning improved performance in five. No studies adhered to a reporting standard. Five of the papers were at high risk of bias.

CONCLUSION

Machine learning for SCD prediction has been under-applied and incorrectly implemented but is ripe for future investigation. It may have some incremental utility in predicting SCD over traditional models. The development of reporting standards for machine learning is required to improve the quality of evidence reporting in the field.

Circulating Isovalerylcarnitine and Lung Cancer Risk: Evidence from Mendelian Randomization and Prediagnostic Blood Measurements

BACKGROUND

Tobacco exposure causes 8 of 10 lung cancers, and identifying additional risk factors is challenging due to confounding introduced by smoking in traditional observational studies.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We used Mendelian randomization (MR) to screen 207 metabolites for their role in lung cancer predisposition using independent genome-wide association studies (GWAS) of blood metabolite levels (n = 7,824) and lung cancer risk (n = 29,266 cases/56,450 controls). A nested case-control study (656 cases and 1,296 matched controls) was subsequently performed using prediagnostic blood samples to validate MR association with lung cancer incidence data from population-based cohorts (EPIC and NSHDS).

RESULTS

An MR-based scan of 207 circulating metabolites for lung cancer risk identified that blood isovalerylcarnitine (IVC) was associated with a decreased odds of lung cancer after accounting for multiple testing (log10-OR = 0.43; 95% CI, 0.29-0.63). Molar measurement of IVC in prediagnostic blood found similar results (log10-OR = 0.39; 95% CI, 0.21-0.72). Results were consistent across lung cancer subtypes.

CONCLUSIONS

Independent lines of evidence support an inverse association of elevated circulating IVC with lung cancer risk through a novel methodologic approach that integrates genetic and traditional epidemiology to efficiently identify novel cancer biomarkers.

IMPACT

Our results find compelling evidence in favor of a protective role for a circulating metabolite, IVC, in lung cancer etiology. From the treatment of a Mendelian disease, isovaleric acidemia, we know that circulating IVC is modifiable through a restricted protein diet or glycine and L-carnatine supplementation. IVC may represent a modifiable and inversely associated biomarker for lung cancer.

Body Size at Different Ages and Risk of 6 Cancers: A Mendelian Randomization and Prospective Cohort Study

It is unclear if body weight in early life affects cancer risk independently of adult body weight. To investigate this question for 6 obesity-related cancers, we performed univariable and multivariable analyses using 1) Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis and 2) longitudinal analyses in prospective cohorts. Both the MR and longitudinal analyses indicated that larger early life body size was associated with higher risk of endometrial (odds ratioMR = 1.61, 95% confidence interval = 1.23 to 2.11) and kidney (odds ratioMR = 1.40, 95% confidence interval = 1.09 to 1.80) cancer. These associations were attenuated after accounting for adult body size in both the MR and cohort analyses. Early life body mass index (BMI) was not consistently associated with the other investigated cancers. The lack of clear independent risk associations suggests that early life BMI influences endometrial and kidney cancer risk mainly through pathways that are common with adult BMI.

Diet and BMI Correlate with Metabolite Patterns Associated with Aggressive Prostate Cancer

Three metabolite patterns have previously shown prospective inverse associations with the risk of aggressive prostate cancer within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC). Here, we investigated dietary and lifestyle correlates of these three prostate cancer-related metabolite patterns, which included: 64 phosphatidylcholines and three hydroxysphingomyelins (Pattern 1), acylcarnitines C18:1 and C18:2, glutamate, ornithine, and taurine (Pattern 2), and 8 lysophosphatidylcholines (Pattern 3). In a two-stage cross-sectional discovery (n = 2524) and validation (n = 518) design containing 3042 men free of cancer in EPIC, we estimated the associations of 24 dietary and lifestyle variables with each pattern and the contributing individual metabolites. Associations statistically significant after both correction for multiple testing (False Discovery Rate = 0.05) in the discovery set and at p < 0.05 in the validation set were considered robust. Intakes of alcohol, total fish products, and its subsets total fish and lean fish were positively associated with Pattern 1. Body mass index (BMI) was positively associated with Pattern 2, which appeared to be driven by a strong positive BMI-glutamate association. Finally, both BMI and fatty fish were inversely associated with Pattern 3. In conclusion, these results indicate associations of fish and its subtypes, alcohol, and BMI with metabolite patterns that are inversely associated with risk of aggressive prostate cancer.

The relationship between blood pressure and risk of renal cell carcinoma

BACKGROUND

The relation between blood pressure and kidney cancer risk is well established but complex and different study designs have reported discrepant findings on the relative importance of diastolic blood pressure (DBP) and systolic blood pressure (SBP). In this study, we sought to describe the temporal relation between diastolic and SBP with renal cell carcinoma (RCC) risk in detail.

METHODS

Our study involved two prospective cohorts: the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition study and UK Biobank, including >700 000 participants and 1692 incident RCC cases. Risk analyses were conducted using flexible parametric survival models for DBP and SBP both separately as well as with mutuality adjustment and then adjustment for extended risk factors. We also carried out univariable and multivariable Mendelian randomization (MR) analyses (DBP: ninstruments = 251, SBP: ninstruments = 213) to complement the analyses of measured DBP and SBP.

RESULTS

In the univariable analysis, we observed clear positive associations with RCC risk for both diastolic and SBP when measured ≥5 years before diagnosis and suggestive evidence for a stronger risk association in the year leading up to diagnosis. In mutually adjusted analysis, the long-term risk association of DBP remained, with a hazard ratio (HR) per standard deviation increment 10 years before diagnosis (HR10y) of 1.20 (95% CI: 1.10-1.30), whereas the association of SBP was attenuated (HR10y: 1.00, 95% CI: 0.91-1.10). In the complementary multivariable MR analysis, we observed an odds ratio for a 1-SD increment (ORsd) of 1.34 (95% CI: 1.08-1.67) for genetically predicted DBP and 0.70 (95% CI: 0.56-0.88) for genetically predicted SBP.

CONCLUSION

The results of this observational and MR study are consistent with an important role of DBP in RCC aetiology. The relation between SBP and RCC risk was less clear but does not appear to be independent of DBP.

Genetic Analysis of Lung Cancer and the Germline Impact on Somatic Mutation Burden

BACKGROUND

Germline genetic variation contributes to lung cancer (LC) susceptibility. Previous genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have implicated susceptibility loci involved in smoking behaviors and DNA repair genes, but further work is required to identify susceptibility variants.

METHODS

To identify LC susceptibility loci, a family history-based genome-wide association by proxy (GWAx) of LC (48 843 European proxy LC patients, 195 387 controls) was combined with a previous LC GWAS (29 266 patients, 56 450 controls) by meta-analysis. Colocalization was used to explore candidate genes and overlap with existing traits at discovered susceptibility loci. Polygenic risk scores (PRS) were tested within an independent validation cohort (1 666 LC patients vs 6 664 controls) using variants selected from the LC susceptibility loci and a novel selection approach using published GWAS summary statistics. Finally, the effects of the LC PRS on somatic mutational burden were explored in patients whose tumor resections have been profiled by exome (n = 685) and genome sequencing (n = 61). Statistical tests were 2-sided.

RESULTS

The GWAx-GWAS meta-analysis identified 8 novel LC loci. Colocalization implicated DNA repair genes (CHEK1), metabolic genes (CYP1A1), and smoking propensity genes (CHRNA4 and CHRNB2). PRS analysis demonstrated that these variants, as well as subgenome-wide significant variants related to expression quantitative trait loci and/or smoking propensity, assisted in LC genetic risk prediction (odds ratio = 1.37, 95% confidence interval = 1.29 to 1.45; P < .001). Patients with higher genetic PRS loads of smoking-related variants tended to have higher mutation burdens in their lung tumors.

CONCLUSIONS

This study has expanded the number of LC susceptibility loci and provided insights into the molecular mechanisms by which these susceptibility variants contribute to LC development.

Applying Mendelian randomization to appraise causality in relationships between nutrition and cancer

Dietary factors are assumed to play an important role in cancer risk, apparent in consensus recommendations for cancer prevention that promote nutritional changes. However, the evidence in this field has been generated predominantly through observational studies, which may result in biased effect estimates because of confounding, exposure misclassification, and reverse causality. With major geographical differences and rapid changes in cancer incidence over time, it is crucial to establish which of the observational associations reflect causality and to identify novel risk factors as these may be modified to prevent the onset of cancer and reduce its progression. Mendelian randomization (MR) uses the special properties of germline genetic variation to strengthen causal inference regarding potentially modifiable exposures and disease risk. MR can be implemented through instrumental variable (IV) analysis and, when robustly performed, is generally less prone to confounding, reverse causation and measurement error than conventional observational methods and has different sources of bias (discussed in detail below). It is increasingly used to facilitate causal inference in epidemiology and provides an opportunity to explore the effects of nutritional exposures on cancer incidence and progression in a cost-effective and timely manner. Here, we introduce the concept of MR and discuss its current application in understanding the impact of nutritional factors (e.g., any measure of diet and nutritional intake, circulating biomarkers, patterns, preference or behaviour) on cancer aetiology and, thus, opportunities for MR to contribute to the development of nutritional recommendations and policies for cancer prevention. We provide applied examples of MR studies examining the role of nutritional factors in cancer to illustrate how this method can be used to help prioritise or deprioritise the evaluation of specific nutritional factors as intervention targets in randomised controlled trials. We describe possible biases when using MR, and methodological developments aimed at investigating and potentially overcoming these biases when present. Lastly, we consider the use of MR in identifying causally relevant nutritional risk factors for various cancers in different regions across the world, given notable geographical differences in some cancers. We also discuss how MR results could be translated into further research and policy. We conclude that findings from MR studies, which corroborate those from other well-conducted studies with different and orthogonal biases, are poised to substantially improve our understanding of nutritional influences on cancer. For such corroboration, there is a requirement for an interdisciplinary and collaborative approach to investigate risk factors for cancer incidence and progression.

Prediagnosis Leisure-Time Physical Activity and Lung Cancer Survival: A Pooled Analysis of 11 Cohorts

BACKGROUND

Little is known about the association between physical activity before cancer diagnosis and survival among lung cancer patients. In this pooled analysis of 11 prospective cohorts, we investigated associations of prediagnosis leisure-time physical activity (LTPA) with all-cause and lung cancer-specific mortality among incident lung cancer patients.

METHODS

Using self-reported data on regular engagement in exercise and sports activities collected at study enrollment, we assessed metabolic equivalent hours (MET-h) of prediagnosis LTPA per week. According to the Physical Activity Guidelines for Americans, prediagnosis LTPA was classified into inactivity, less than 8.3 and at least 8.3 MET-h per week (the minimum recommended range). Cox regression was used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence interval (CIs) for all-cause and lung cancer-specific mortality after adjustment for major prognostic factors and lifetime smoking history.

RESULTS

Of 20 494 incident lung cancer patients, 16 864 died, including 13 596 deaths from lung cancer (overall 5-year relative survival rate = 20.9%, 95% CI = 20.3% to 21.5%). Compared with inactivity, prediagnosis LTPA of more than 8.3 MET-h per week was associated with a lower hazard of all-cause mortality (multivariable-adjusted HR = 0.93, 95% CI = 0.88 to 0.99), but not with lung cancer-specific mortality (multivariable-adjusted HR = 0.99, 95% CI = 0.95 to 1.04), among the overall population. Additive interaction was found by tumor stage (Pinteraction = .008 for all-cause mortality and .003 for lung cancer-specific mortality). When restricted to localized cancer, prediagnosis LTPA of at least 8.3 MET-h per week linked to 20% lower mortality: multivariable-adjusted HRs were 0.80 (95% CI = 0.67 to 0.97) for all-cause mortality and 0.80 (95% CI = 0.65 to 0.99) for lung cancer-specific mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Regular participation in LTPA that met or exceeded the minimum Physical Activity Guidelines was associated with reduced hazards of mortality among lung cancer patients, especially those with early stage cancer.

Mutational signatures in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma from eight countries with varying incidence

Esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) shows remarkable variation in incidence that is not fully explained by known lifestyle and environmental risk factors. It has been speculated that an unknown exogenous exposure(s) could be responsible. Here we combine the fields of mutational signature analysis with cancer epidemiology to study 552 ESCC genomes from eight countries with varying incidence rates. Mutational profiles were similar across all countries studied. Associations between specific mutational signatures and ESCC risk factors were identified for tobacco, alcohol, opium and germline variants, with modest impacts on mutation burden. We find no evidence of a mutational signature indicative of an exogenous exposure capable of explaining differences in ESCC incidence. Apolipoprotein B mRNA-editing enzyme, catalytic polypeptide-like (APOBEC)-associated mutational signatures single-base substitution (SBS)2 and SBS13 were present in 88% and 91% of cases, respectively, and accounted for 25% of the mutation burden on average, indicating that APOBEC activation is a crucial step in ESCC tumor development.

Germline determinants of humoral immune response to HPV-16 protect against oropharyngeal cancer

Although several oropharyngeal cancer (OPC) susceptibility loci have been identified, most previous studies lacked detailed information on human papillomavirus (HPV) status. We conduct a genome-wide analysis by HPV16 serology status in 4,002 oral cancer cases (OPC and oral cavity cancer (OCC)) and 5,256 controls. We detect four susceptibility loci pointing to a distinct genetic predisposition by HPV status. Our most notable finding in the HLA region, that is now confirmed to be specific of HPV(+)OPC risk, reveal two independent loci with strong protective effects, one refining the previously reported HLA class II haplotype association. Antibody levels against HPV16 viral proteins strongly implicate the protective HLA variants as major determinants of humoral response against L1 capsid protein or E6 oncoprotein suggesting a natural immune response against HPV(+)OPC promoted by HLA variants. This indicates that therapeutic vaccines that target E6 and attenuate viral response after established HPV infections might protect against HPV(+)OPC.

Reallocation of time between device-measured movement behaviours and risk of incident cardiovascular disease

OBJECTIVE

To improve classification of movement behaviours in free-living accelerometer data using machine-learning methods, and to investigate the association between machine-learned movement behaviours and risk of incident cardiovascular disease (CVD) in adults.

METHODS

Using free-living data from 152 participants, we developed a machine-learning model to classify movement behaviours (moderate-to-vigorous physical activity behaviours (MVPA), light physical activity behaviours, sedentary behaviour, sleep) in wrist-worn accelerometer data. Participants in UK Biobank, a prospective cohort, were asked to wear an accelerometer for 7 days, and we applied our machine-learning model to classify their movement behaviours. Using compositional data analysis Cox regression, we investigated how reallocating time between movement behaviours was associated with CVD incidence.

RESULTS

In leave-one-participant-out analysis, our machine-learning method classified free-living movement behaviours with mean accuracy 88% (95% CI 87% to 89%) and Cohen's kappa 0.80 (95% CI 0.79 to 0.82). Among 87 498 UK Biobank participants, there were 4105 incident CVD events. Reallocating time from any behaviour to MVPA, or reallocating time from sedentary behaviour to any behaviour, was associated with lower CVD risk. For an average individual, reallocating 20 min/day to MVPA from all other behaviours proportionally was associated with 9% (95% CI 7% to 10%) lower risk, while reallocating 1 hour/day to sedentary behaviour from all other behaviours proportionally was associated with 5% (95% CI 3% to 7%) higher risk.

CONCLUSION

Machine-learning methods classified movement behaviours accurately in free-living accelerometer data. Reallocating time from other behaviours to MVPA, and from sedentary behaviour to other behaviours, was associated with lower risk of incident CVD, and should be promoted by interventions and guidelines.

Correction: Accelerometer measured physical activity and the incidence of cardiovascular disease: Evidence from the UK Biobank cohort study

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1003487.].

The blood metabolome of incident kidney cancer: A case-control study nested within the MetKid consortium

BACKGROUND

Excess bodyweight and related metabolic perturbations have been implicated in kidney cancer aetiology, but the specific molecular mechanisms underlying these relationships are poorly understood. In this study, we sought to identify circulating metabolites that predispose kidney cancer and to evaluate the extent to which they are influenced by body mass index (BMI).

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We assessed the association between circulating levels of 1,416 metabolites and incident kidney cancer using pre-diagnostic blood samples from up to 1,305 kidney cancer case-control pairs from 5 prospective cohort studies. Cases were diagnosed on average 8 years after blood collection. We found 25 metabolites robustly associated with kidney cancer risk. In particular, 14 glycerophospholipids (GPLs) were inversely associated with risk, including 8 phosphatidylcholines (PCs) and 2 plasmalogens. The PC with the strongest association was PC ae C34:3 with an odds ratio (OR) for 1 standard deviation (SD) increment of 0.75 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.68 to 0.83, p = 2.6 × 10-8). In contrast, 4 amino acids, including glutamate (OR for 1 SD = 1.39, 95% CI: 1.20 to 1.60, p = 1.6 × 10-5), were positively associated with risk. Adjusting for BMI partly attenuated the risk association for some-but not all-metabolites, whereas other known risk factors of kidney cancer, such as smoking and alcohol consumption, had minimal impact on the observed associations. A mendelian randomisation (MR) analysis of the influence of BMI on the blood metabolome highlighted that some metabolites associated with kidney cancer risk are influenced by BMI. Specifically, elevated BMI appeared to decrease levels of several GPLs that were also found inversely associated with kidney cancer risk (e.g., -0.17 SD change [ßBMI] in 1-(1-enyl-palmitoyl)-2-linoleoyl-GPC (P-16:0/18:2) levels per SD change in BMI, p = 3.4 × 10-5). BMI was also associated with increased levels of glutamate (ßBMI: 0.12, p = 1.5 × 10-3). While our results were robust across the participating studies, they were limited to study participants of European descent, and it will, therefore, be important to evaluate if our findings can be generalised to populations with different genetic backgrounds.

CONCLUSIONS

This study suggests a potentially important role of the blood metabolome in kidney cancer aetiology by highlighting a wide range of metabolites associated with the risk of developing kidney cancer and the extent to which changes in levels of these metabolites are driven by BMI-the principal modifiable risk factor of kidney cancer.

Circulating Levels of Testosterone, Sex Hormone Binding Globulin and Colorectal Cancer Risk: Observational and Mendelian Randomization Analyses

BACKGROUND

Epidemiologic studies evaluating associations between sex steroid hormones and colorectal cancer risk have yielded inconsistent results. To elucidate the role of circulating levels of testosterone, and sex hormone-binding globulin (SHBG) in colorectal cancer risk, we conducted observational and Mendelian randomization (MR) analyses.

METHODS

The observational analyses included 333,530 participants enrolled in the UK Biobank with testosterone and SHBG measured. HRs and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated using multivariable Cox proportional hazards models. For MR analyses, genetic variants robustly associated with hormone levels were identified and their association with colorectal cancer (42,866 cases/42,752 controls) was examined using two-sample MR.

RESULTS

In the observational analysis, there was little evidence that circulating levels of total testosterone were associated with colorectal cancer risk; the MR analyses showed a greater risk for women (OR per 1-SD = 1.09; 95% CI, 1.01-1.17), although pleiotropy may have biased this result. Higher SHBG concentrations were associated with greater colorectal cancer risk for women (HR per 1-SD = 1.16; 95% CI, 1.05-1.29), but was unsupported by the MR analysis. There was little evidence of associations between free testosterone and colorectal cancer in observational and MR analyses.

CONCLUSIONS

Circulating concentrations of sex hormones are unlikely to be causally associated with colorectal cancer. Additional experimental studies are required to better understand the possible role of androgens in colorectal cancer development.

IMPACT

Our results from large-scale analyses provide little evidence for sex hormone pathways playing a causal role in colorectal cancer development.See related commentary by Hang and Shen, p. 1302.

Prospective Identification of Elevated Circulating CDCP1 in Patients Years before Onset of Lung Cancer

Increasing evidence points to a role for inflammation in lung carcinogenesis. A small number of circulating inflammatory proteins have been identified as showing elevated levels prior to lung cancer diagnosis, indicating the potential for prospective circulating protein concentration as a marker of early carcinogenesis. To identify novel markers of lung cancer risk, we measured a panel of 92 circulating inflammatory proteins in 648 prediagnostic blood samples from two prospective cohorts in Italy and Norway (women only). To preserve the comparability of results and protect against confounding factors, the main statistical analyses were conducted in women from both studies, with replication sought in men (Italian participants). Univariate and penalized regression models revealed for the first time higher blood levels of CDCP1 protein in cases that went on to develop lung cancer compared with controls, irrespective of time to diagnosis, smoking habits, and gender. This association was validated in an additional 450 samples. Associations were stronger for future cases of adenocarcinoma where CDCP1 showed better explanatory performance. Integrative analyses combining gene expression and protein levels of CDCP1 measured in the same individuals suggested a link between CDCP1 and the expression of transcripts of LRRN3 and SEM1. Enrichment analyses indicated a potential role for CDCP1 in pathways related to cell adhesion and mobility, such as the WNT/β-catenin pathway. Overall, this study identifies lung cancer-related dysregulation of CDCP1 expression years before diagnosis. SIGNIFICANCE: Prospective proteomics analyses reveal an association between increased levels of circulating CDCP1 and lung carcinogenesis irrespective of smoking and years before diagnosis, and integrating gene expression indicates potential underlying mechanisms.See related commentary by Itzstein et al., p. 3441.

Electronic alerts for acute kidney injury across primary and secondary care

PROBLEM

In 2009 the National Confidential Enquiry into Patient Outcome and Death suggested only 50% of patients with acute kidney injury (AKI) receive good standards of care. In response National Health Service (NHS) England mandated the use of electronic AKI alerts within secondary care. However, we recognised AKI is not just a secondary care problem, where primary care has a crucial role to play in prevention, early detection and management as well as post-AKI care.

METHODS

AKI alerts were implemented in primary and secondary care services for a population of 480 000. Comparisons were made in AKI incidence, peak creatinine following AKI and renal recovery in the years before and after using Byar's approximation (95% CI).

INTERVENTION

A complex quality improvement initiative was implemented based on the design and integration of an AKI alerting system within laboratory information management systems for primary and secondary care, with an affixed URL for clinicians to access a care bundle of AKI guidelines on safe prescribing, patient advice and early contact with nephrology.

RESULTS

The intervention was associated with an 8% increase in creatinine testing (n=32 563). Hospital acquired AKI detection increased by 6%, while community acquired AKI detection increased by 3% and AKI stage 3 detected in primary care fell by 14%. The intervention overall had no effect on AKI severity but did improve follow-up testing and renal recovery. Importantly hospital AKI 3 recoveries improved by 22%. In a small number of AKI cases, the algorithm did not produce an alert resulting in a reduction in follow-up testing compared with preintervention levels.

CONCLUSION

The introduction of AKI alerts in primary and secondary care, in conjunction with access to an AKI care bundle, was associated with higher rates of repeat blood sampling, AKI detection and renal recovery. Validating accuracy of alerts is required to avoid patient harm.

Genetically Raised Circulating Bilirubin Levels and Risk of Ten Cancers: A Mendelian Randomization Study

Bilirubin, an endogenous antioxidant, may play a protective role in cancer development. We applied two-sample Mendelian randomization to investigate whether genetically raised bilirubin levels are causally associated with the risk of ten cancers (pancreas, kidney, endometrium, ovary, breast, prostate, lung, Hodgkin's lymphoma, melanoma, and neuroblastoma). The number of cases and their matched controls of European descent ranged from 122,977 and 105,974 for breast cancer to 1200 and 6417 for Hodgkin's lymphoma, respectively. A total of 115 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated (p < 5 × 10-8) with circulating total bilirubin, extracted from a genome-wide association study in the UK Biobank, were used as instrumental variables. One SNP (rs6431625) in the promoter region of the uridine-diphosphoglucuronate glucuronosyltransferase1A1 (UGT1A1) gene explained 16.9% and the remaining 114 SNPs (non-UGT1A1 SNPs) explained 3.1% of phenotypic variance in circulating bilirubin levels. A one-standarddeviation increment in circulating bilirubin (≈ 4.4 µmol/L), predicted by non-UGT1A1 SNPs, was inversely associated with risk of squamous cell lung cancer and Hodgkin's lymphoma (odds ratio (OR) 0.85, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.73-0.99, P 0.04 and OR 0.64, 95% CI 0.42-0.99, p 0.04, respectively), which was confirmed after removing potential pleiotropic SNPs. In contrast, a positive association was observed with the risk of breast cancer after removing potential pleiotropic SNPs (OR 1.12, 95% CI 1.04-1.20, p 0.002). There was little evidence for robust associations with the other seven cancers investigated. Genetically raised bilirubin levels were inversely associated with risk of squamous cell lung cancer as well as Hodgkin's lymphoma and positively associated with risk of breast cancer. Further studies are required to investigate the utility of bilirubin as a low-cost clinical marker to improve risk prediction for certain cancers.

Accelerometer measured physical activity and the incidence of cardiovascular disease: Evidence from the UK Biobank cohort study

BACKGROUND

Higher levels of physical activity (PA) are associated with a lower risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, uncertainty exists on whether the inverse relationship between PA and incidence of CVD is greater at the highest levels of PA. Past studies have mostly relied on self-reported evidence from questionnaire-based PA, which is crude and cannot capture all PA undertaken. We investigated the association between accelerometer-measured moderate, vigorous, and total PA and incident CVD.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We obtained accelerometer-measured moderate-intensity and vigorous-intensity physical activities and total volume of PA, over a 7-day period in 2013-2015, for 90,211 participants without prior or concurrent CVD in the UK Biobank cohort. Participants in the lowest category of total PA smoked more, had higher body mass index and C-reactive protein, and were diagnosed with hypertension. PA was associated with 3,617 incident CVD cases during 440,004 person-years of follow-up (median (interquartile range [IQR]): 5.2 (1.2) years) using Cox regression models. We found a linear dose-response relationship for PA, whether measured as moderate-intensity, vigorous-intensity, or as total volume, with risk of incident of CVD. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals for increasing quarters of the PA distribution relative to the lowest fourth were for moderate-intensity PA: 0.71 (0.65, 0.77), 0.59 (0.54, 0.65), and 0.46 (0.41, 0.51); for vigorous-intensity PA: 0.70 (0.64, 0.77), 0.54 (0.49,0.59), and 0.41 (0.37,0.46); and for total volume of PA: 0.73 (0.67, 0.79), 0.63 (0.57, 0.69), and 0.47 (0.43, 0.52). We took account of potential confounders but unmeasured confounding remains a possibility, and while removal of early deaths did not affect the estimated HRs, we cannot completely dismiss the likelihood that reverse causality has contributed to the findings. Another possible limitation of this work is the quantification of PA intensity-levels based on methods validated in relatively small studies.

CONCLUSIONS

In this study, we found no evidence of a threshold for the inverse association between objectively measured moderate, vigorous, and total PA with CVD. Our findings suggest that PA is not only associated with lower risk for of CVD, but the greatest benefit is seen for those who are active at the highest level.

Genome-wide association study of vegetarianism in UK Biobank identifies association with VRK2

Prospective studies have observed differences in risks for several health outcomes when comparing meat-eaters and vegetarians, but the mechanisms underlying these differences remain uncertain. Identifying genetic factors related to vegetarianism may be valuable for assessing causality. We report a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of vegetarianism in 367,198 participants from UK Biobank. We identified one locus, rs10189138, near the vaccinia related kinase 2 (VRK2) gene, significantly associated with vegetarianism (β=0.153, p=3x10-8). The associations between rs10189138 and 40 traits were calculated, and the rs10189138 T allele (MAF=0.12) was found to be significantly associated with greater height, after controlling the false discovery rate (FDR). Correlations between genetically predicted vegetarianism and 855 other genetically predicted traits were also calculated, and vegetarianism had significant positive genetic correlations with fluid intelligence and age at menarche, after controlling the FDR. Future research on an independent sample is needed to see if this GWAS result can be replicated.

Pan-cancer analysis demonstrates that integrating polygenic risk scores with modifiable risk factors improves risk prediction

Cancer risk is determined by a complex interplay of environmental and heritable factors. Polygenic risk scores (PRS) provide a personalized genetic susceptibility profile that may be leveraged for disease prediction. Using data from the UK Biobank (413,753 individuals; 22,755 incident cancer cases), we quantify the added predictive value of integrating cancer-specific PRS with family history and modifiable risk factors for 16 cancers. We show that incorporating PRS measurably improves prediction accuracy for most cancers, but the magnitude of this improvement varies substantially. We also demonstrate that stratifying on levels of PRS identifies significantly divergent 5-year risk trajectories after accounting for family history and modifiable risk factors. At the population level, the top 20% of the PRS distribution accounts for 4.0% to 30.3% of incident cancer cases, exceeding the impact of many lifestyle-related factors. In summary, this study illustrates the potential for improving cancer risk assessment by integrating genetic risk scores.

Insulin-like growth factor-1, insulin-like growth factor-binding protein-3, and breast cancer risk: observational and Mendelian randomization analyses with ∼430 000 women

BACKGROUND

Epidemiological evidence supports a positive association between circulating insulin-like growth factor-1 (IGF-1) concentrations and breast cancer risk, but both the magnitude and causality of this relationship are uncertain. We conducted observational analyses with adjustment for regression dilution bias, and Mendelian randomization (MR) analyses allowed for causal inference.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

We investigated the associations between circulating IGF-1 concentrations and incident breast cancer risk in 206 263 women in the UK Biobank. Multivariable hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated using Cox proportional hazards models. HRs were corrected for regression dilution using repeat IGF-1 measures available in a subsample of 6711 women. For the MR analyses, genetic variants associated with circulating IGF-1 and IGF-binding protein-3 (IGFBP-3) levels were identified and their association with breast cancer was examined with two-sample MR methods using genome-wide data from 122 977 cases and 105 974 controls.

RESULTS

In the UK Biobank, after a median follow-up of 7.1 years, 4360 incident breast cancer cases occurred. In the multivariable-adjusted models corrected for regression dilution, higher IGF-1 concentrations were associated with a greater risk of breast cancer (HR per 5 nmol/l increment of IGF-1 = 1.11, 95% CI = 1.07-1.16). Similar positive associations were found by follow-up time, menopausal status, body mass index, and other risk factors. In the MR analyses, a 5 nmol/l increment in genetically-predicted IGF-1 concentration was associated with a greater breast cancer risk (odds ratio = 1.05, 95% CI = 1.01-1.10; P = 0.02), with a similar effect estimate for estrogen-positive (ER+) tumours, but no effect found for estrogen-negative (ER-) tumours. Genetically-predicted IGFBP-3 concentrations were not associated with breast cancer risk (odds ratio per 1-standard deviation increment = 1.00, 95% CI = 0.97-1.04; P = 0.98).

CONCLUSION

Our results support a probable causal relationship between circulating IGF-1 concentrations and breast cancer, suggesting that interventions targeting the IGF pathway may be beneficial in preventing breast tumorigenesis.

Self-reported and objectively measured physical activity in people with and without chronic heart failure: UK Biobank analysis

Objective

The impact of heart failure (HF) on perceived and objectively measured levels of physical activity (PA) can inform risk stratification and treatment recommendation. We aimed to compare self-reported and objectively measured PA levels in a large sample of participants with and without HF.

Methods

A validated PA questionnaire was used to estimate self-reported weekly PA among 1600 participants with HF and 387 580 participants without HF. Accelerometer data were studied in 596 participants with HF and 96 105 participants without HF for a period of 7 days. Using multivariable linear regression models, we compared the PA levels between participants with HF and without HF, focusing on both the average daily PA levels and the intensity of PAs throughout the day.

Results

PA levels were significantly lower in participants with HF using both self-report (excess metabolic equivalent of task hours per week of 26.5 (95% CI 24.7 to 28.4) vs 34.7 (95% CI 34.5 to 34.9), respectively (p<0.001)) and accelerometer measures (mean accelerations of 23.7 milligravity (95% CI 23.1 to 24.4) vs 28.1 milligravity (95% CI 28.0 to 28.1), respectively (p<0.001)). Findings were consistent across different PA intensities. Hour-by-hour comparisons showed that accelerometer-derived PA levels of patients with HF were reduced throughout the day.

Conclusion

Perceived and objectively recorded PA levels of patients with chronic HF are significantly lower than those of individuals without HF. This difference is continuous throughout the different hours of the day, with individuals with HF being on average 16% less active than individuals without HF. In patients with HF, increases in everyday activity may be a potential alternative to structured exercise programmes.

GWAS identifies 14 loci for device-measured physical activity and sleep duration

Physical activity and sleep duration are established risk factors for many diseases, but their aetiology is poorly understood, partly due to relying on self-reported evidence. Here we report a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of device-measured physical activity and sleep duration in 91,105 UK Biobank participants, finding 14 significant loci (7 novel). These loci account for 0.06% of activity and 0.39% of sleep duration variation. Genome-wide estimates of ~ 15% phenotypic variation indicate high polygenicity. Heritability is higher in women than men for overall activity (23 vs. 20%, p = 1.5 × 10-4) and sedentary behaviours (18 vs. 15%, p = 9.7 × 10-4). Heritability partitioning, enrichment and pathway analyses indicate the central nervous system plays a role in activity behaviours. Two-sample Mendelian randomisation suggests that increased activity might causally lower diastolic blood pressure (beta mmHg/SD: -0.91, SE = 0.18, p = 8.2 × 10-7), and odds of hypertension (Odds ratio/SD: 0.84, SE = 0.03, p = 4.9 × 10-8). Our results advocate the value of physical activity for reducing blood pressure.