Statistical evaluation of HIV vaccines in early clinical trials

Discovery medicine - the HVTN's iterative approach to developing an HIV-1 broadly neutralizing vaccine

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

In the past two decades, there has been an explosion in the discovery of HIV-1 broadly neutralizing antibodies (bnAbs) and associated vaccine strategies to induce them. This abundance of approaches necessitates a system that accurately and expeditiously identifies the most promising regimens. We herein briefly review the background science of bnAbs, provide a description of the first round of phase 1 discovery medicine studies, and suggest an approach to integrate these into a comprehensive HIV-1-neutralizing vaccine.

RECENT FINDINGS

With recent preclinical success including induction of early stage bnAbs in mouse knockin models and rhesus macaques, successful priming of VRC01-class bnAbs with eOD-GT8 in a recent study in humans, and proof-of-concept that intravenous infusion of VRC01 prevents sexual transmission of virus in humans, the stage is set for a broad and comprehensive bnAb vaccine program. Leveraging significant advances in protein nanoparticle science, mRNA technology, adjuvant development, and B-cell and antibody analyses, the HVTN has reconfigured its HIV-1 vaccine strategy by developing the Discovery Medicine Program to test promising vaccine candidates targeting six key epitopes.

SUMMARY

The HVTN Discovery Medicine program is testing multiple HIV-1-neutralizing vaccine candidates.

Analyzing cellular immunogenicity in vaccine clinical trials: a new statistical method including non-specific responses for accurate estimation of vaccine effect

Evaluation of immunogenicity is a key step in the clinical development of novel vaccines. T-cell responses to vaccine candidates are typically assessed by intracellular cytokine staining (ICS) using multiparametric flow cytometry. A conventional statistical approach to analyze ICS data is to compare, between vaccine regimens or between baseline and post-vaccination of the same regimen depending on the trial design, the percentages of cells producing a cytokine of interest after ex vivo stimulation of peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC) with vaccine antigens, after subtracting the non-specific response (of unstimulated cells) of each sample. Subtraction of the non-specific response is aimed at capturing the specific response to the antigen, but raises methodological issues related to measurement error and statistical power. We describe here a new statistical approach to analyze ICS data from vaccine trials. We propose a bivariate linear regression model for estimating the non-specific and antigen-specific ICS responses. We benchmarked the performance of the model in terms of both bias and control of type-I and -II errors in comparison with conventional approaches, and applied it to simulated data as well as real pre- and post-vaccination data from two recent HIV vaccine trials (ANRS VRI01 in healthy volunteers and therapeutic VRI02 ANRS 149 LIGHT in HIV-infected participants). The model was as good as the conventional approaches (with or without subtraction of the non-specific response) in all simulation scenarios in terms of statistical performance, whereas the conventional approaches did not provide robust results across all scenarios. The proposed model estimated the T-cell responses to the antigens without any effect of the non-specific response on the specific response, irrespective of the correlation between the non-specific and specific responses. This novel method of analyzing T-cell immunogenicity data based on bivariate modeling is more flexible than conventional methods, and so yields more detailed results and enables accurate interpretation of vaccine-induced response.

Pooled-Peptide Epitope Mapping Strategies Are Efficient and Highly Sensitive: An Evaluation of Methods for Identifying Human T Cell Epitope Specificities in Large-Scale HIV Vaccine Efficacy Trials

The interferon gamma, enzyme-linked immunospot (IFN-γ ELISpot) assay is widely used to identify viral antigen-specific T cells is frequently employed to quantify T cell responses in HIV vaccine studies. It can be used to define T cell epitope specificities using panels of peptide antigens, but with sample and cost constraints there is a critical need to improve the efficiency of epitope mapping for large and variable pathogens. We evaluated two epitope mapping strategies, based on group testing, for their ability to identify vaccine-induced T-cells from participants in the Step HIV-1 vaccine efficacy trial, and compared the findings to an approach of assaying each peptide individually. The group testing strategies reduced the number of assays required by >7-fold without significantly altering the accuracy of T-cell breadth estimates. Assays of small pools containing 7–30 peptides were highly sensitive and effective at detecting single positive peptides as well as summating responses to multiple peptides. Also, assays with a single 15-mer peptide, containing an identified epitope, did not always elicit a response providing validation that 15-mer peptides are not optimal antigens for detecting CD8+ T cells. Our findings further validate pooling-based epitope mapping strategies, which are critical for characterizing vaccine-induced T-cell responses and more broadly for informing iterative vaccine design. We also show ways to improve their application with computational peptide:MHC binding predictors that can accurately identify the optimal epitope within a 15-mer peptide and within a pool of 15-mer peptides.

Recent developments in clinical trial designs for HIV vaccine research

HIV vaccine strategies are expected to be a crucial component for controlling the HIV epidemic. Despite the large spectrum of potential candidate vaccines for both prophylactic and therapeutic use, the overall development process of an efficacious HIV vaccine strategy is lengthy. The design of clinical trials and the progression of a candidate strategy through the different clinical development stages remain methodologically challenging, mainly due to the lack of validated correlates of protection. In this review, we describe recent advances in clinical trial designs to increase the efficiency of the clinical development of candidate HIV vaccine strategies. The methodological aspects of the designs for early- (phase I and II) and later -stage (phase IIB and III) development are discussed, taking into account the specificities of both prophylactic and therapeutic HIV vaccine development.

A multi-criteria decision making approach to identify a vaccine formulation

This article illustrates the use of a multi-criteria decision making approach, based on desirability functions, to identify an appropriate adjuvant composition for an influenza vaccine to be used in elderly. The proposed adjuvant system contained two main elements: monophosphoryl lipid and α-tocopherol with squalene in an oil/water emulsion. The objective was to elicit a stronger immune response while maintaining an acceptable reactogenicity and safety profile. The study design, the statistical models, the choice of the desirability functions, the computation of the overall desirability index, and the assessment of the robustness of the ranking are all detailed in this manuscript.

Use of placebos in Phase 1 preventive HIV vaccine clinical trials

Phase 1 preventive HIV vaccine trials are often designed as randomized, double-blind studies with the inclusion of placebo recipients. Careful consideration is needed to determine when the inclusion of placebo recipients is highly advantageous and when it is optional for achieving the study objectives of assessing vaccine safety, tolerability and immunogenicity. The inclusion of placebo recipients is generally important to form a reference group that ensures fair evaluation and interpretation of subjective study endpoints, or endpoints whose levels may change due to exposures besides vaccination. In some settings, however, placebo recipients are less important because other data sources and tools are available to achieve the study objectives.

Accelerating clinical development of HIV vaccine strategies: methodological challenges and considerations in constructing an optimised multi-arm phase I/II trial design

Background

Many candidate vaccine strategies against human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection are under study, but their clinical development is lengthy and iterative. To accelerate HIV vaccine development optimised trial designs are needed. We propose a randomised multi-arm phase I/II design for early stage development of several vaccine strategies, aiming at rapidly discarding those that are unsafe or non-immunogenic.

Methods

We explored early stage designs to evaluate both the safety and the immunogenicity of four heterologous prime-boost HIV vaccine strategies in parallel. One of the vaccines used as a prime and boost in the different strategies (vaccine 1) has yet to be tested in humans, thus requiring a phase I safety evaluation. However, its toxicity risk is considered minimal based on data from similar vaccines. We newly adapted a randomised phase II trial by integrating an early safety decision rule, emulating that of a phase I study. We evaluated the operating characteristics of the proposed design in simulation studies with either a fixed-sample frequentist or a continuous Bayesian safety decision rule and projected timelines for the trial.

Results

We propose a randomised four-arm phase I/II design with two independent binary endpoints for safety and immunogenicity. Immunogenicity evaluation at trial end is based on a single-stage Fleming design per arm, comparing the observed proportion of responders in an immunogenicity screening assay to an unacceptably low proportion, without direct comparisons between arms. Randomisation limits heterogeneity in volunteer characteristics between arms. To avoid exposure of additional participants to an unsafe vaccine during the vaccine boost phase, an early safety decision rule is imposed on the arm starting with vaccine 1 injections. In simulations of the design with either decision rule, the risks of erroneous conclusions were controlled <15%. Flexibility in trial conduct is greater with the continuous Bayesian rule. A 12-month gain in timelines is expected by this optimised design. Other existing designs such as bivariate or seamless phase I/II designs did not offer a clear-cut alternative.

Conclusions

By combining phase I and phase II evaluations in a multi-arm trial, the proposed optimised design allows for accelerating early stage clinical development of HIV vaccine strategies.

HIV Vaccine Trials Network: activities and achievements of the first decade and beyond

The HIV Vaccine Trials Network (HVTN) is an international collaboration of scientists and educators facilitating the development of HIV/AIDS preventive vaccines. The HVTN conducts all phases of clinical trials, from evaluating experimental vaccines for safety and immunogenicity, to testing vaccine efficacy. Over the past decade, the HVTN has aimed to improve the process of designing, implementing and analyzing vaccine trials. Several major achievements include streamlining protocol development while maintaining input from diverse stakeholders, establishing a laboratory program with standardized assays and systems allowing for reliable immunogenicity assessments across trials, setting statistical standards for the field and actively engaging with site communities. These achievements have allowed the HVTN to conduct over 50 clinical trials and make numerous scientific contributions to the field.

A new endpoint definition improved clinical relevance and statistical power in a vaccine trial

OBJECTIVE

Endpoints used for the evaluation of immunogenicity in vaccine trials are often the proportion of individuals with immune response or geometric means of antibody concentrations for each serotype. When a vaccine includes several types of the same species, we illustrate how an endpoint combining all responses may improve clinical relevance and statistical power.

STUDY DESIGN AND SETTINGS

The motivating example was the ANRS 114 Pneumovac trial where the effect of two vaccine strategies against Streptococcus pneumoniae was assessed in adults infected by the Human Immunodeficiency Virus. The power associated with several endpoints was calculated in the example and in simulations. A new endpoint based on four ordered levels is formulated and analyzed by using a proportional odds model.

RESULTS AND CONCLUSION

The analysis of this new endpoint led to an odds ratio allowing detection of improvement and detriment. In the simulation study, this endpoint was associated with the largest statistical power by increasing the amount of information used as compared with usual endpoints. We recommend this new endpoint formulation in the formal development of a new vaccination regimen, whenever applicable.

Statistical positivity criteria for the analysis of ELISpot assay data in HIV-1 vaccine trials

The enzyme-linked immunospot (ELISpot) assay is one of the leading technologies used to measure cellular responses in many settings including HIV vaccine clinical trials. HIV-1-specific effector T lymphocyte responses are considered necessary in the control of infection. Accurate measurement and summary of cellular immune responses are critical to HIV research. ELISpot assay readout is often dichotomized into positive/negative responses according to some pre-specified criteria. Given the increase in the number of replicates used for each stimulation with current assay configurations in the HIV Vaccine Trials Network (HVTN) laboratories, a new approach is now possible. We propose an objective criteria based on a hypothesis-driven method that controls the false positive rate while maintaining sensitivity to each of the antigen-specific responses under study. The new approach is compared to other commonly employed criteria using real and simulated data.