Risk Stratification Model for Hepatocellular Cancer in Patients With Cirrhosis

Health inequalities in hepatocellular carcinoma surveillance, diagnosis, treatment, and survival in the United Kingdom: a scoping review

BACKGROUND

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) remains a deadly cancer in the UK despite advancements in curative therapies. Societal conditions and health inequalities influence the development of chronic liver disease and outcomes from complications including HCC. Scoping this emergent evidence-base is required to inform research and solutions for the NHS.

METHODS

A PRISMA scoping review was performed up to September 2023. Articles exploring health inequalities in HCC involving the UK population were included.

RESULTS

This review has characterised axes of health inequality and their impact across the HCC care continuum in the UK. Studies predominantly employed a cohort design or population-based analyses, with meta-analyses of surveillance utilisation including only a single UK study. These methodologies provided an appropriate lens to understand longitudinal trends and identify disadvantaged groups. However, important evidence gaps remain, including exploration of patient perspectives, intersectional analyses, and statistical measures of socioeconomic inequity in HCC.

CONCLUSIONS

HCC is a rapidly growing cause of cancer mortality and disproportionally affects underserved groups, presenting a major public health concern. Further research is required to innovate and evaluate surveillance and management pathways to reduce systemic inequities. Direction is needed at the national level to improve prevention, early diagnosis and access to curative treatment.

Integrating PNPLA3 into clinical risk prediction

The PNPLA3-rs738409-G variant was the first common variant associated with hepatic fat accumulation and progression of metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD). Nevertheless, to date, the clinical translation of this discovery has been minimal because it has not yet been clearly demonstrated where the genetic information may play an independent and additional role in clinical risk prediction. In this mini-review, we will discuss the most relevant evidence regarding the potential integration of the PNPLA3 variant into scores and algorithms for liver disease diagnostics and risk stratification, specifically focusing on MASLD but also extending to liver diseases of other etiologies. The PNPLA3 variant adds little in diagnosing the current state of the disease, whether in terms of presence/absence of metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis or the stage of fibrosis. While it can play an important role in prediction, allowing for the early definition of risk profiles that enable tailored monitoring and interventions over time, this is most valuable when applied to populations with relatively high pre-test probability of having significant fibrosis based on either non-invasive tests (e.g. Fibrosis-4) or demographics (e.g. diabetes). Indeed, in this context, integrating FIB4 with the PNPLA3 genotype can refine risk stratification, though there is still no evidence that genetic information adds to liver stiffness determined by elastography. Similarly, in patients with known liver cirrhosis, knowing the PNPLA3 genotype can play a role in predicting the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma, while more doubts remain about the risk of decompensation.

Recent advances in MASLD genetics: Insights into disease mechanisms and the next frontiers in clinical application

Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) is the most common chronic liver disease in the world and a growing cause of liver-related morbidity and mortality. Yet, at the same time, our understanding of the pathophysiology and genetic underpinnings of this increasingly common yet heterogeneous disease has increased dramatically over the last 2 decades, with the potential to lead to meaningful clinical interventions for patients. We have now seen the first pharmacologic therapy approved for the treatment of MASLD, and multiple other potential treatments are currently under investigation-including gene-targeted RNA therapies that directly extend from advances in MASLD genetics. Here we review recent advances in MASLD genetics, some of the key pathophysiologic insights that human genetics has provided, and the ways in which human genetics may inform our clinical practice in the field of MASLD in the near future.

Risk factors for hepatocellular carcinoma in cirrhosis: A comprehensive analysis from a decade-long study

BACKGROUND

Cirrhosis is a significant risk factor for the development of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Variability in HCC risk among patients with cirrhosis is notable, particularly when considering the diverse etiologies of cirrhosis.

AIM

To identify specific risk factors contributing to HCC development in patients with cirrhosis.

METHODS

This retrospective study analyzed data from cirrhotic patients at Beijing Youan Hospital from January 1, 2012 to September 30, 2022 with at least 6 mo of follow-up. Patient demographics, medical histories, etiologies, and clinical characteristics were examined. Cox regression analysis was used to analyze correlations of the above parameters with hepatocarcinogenesis, while competing risk regression was used to estimate their adjusted hazard ratios accounting for death. The cumulative incidence was plotted over time.

RESULTS

Overall, 5417 patients with cirrhosis (median age: 54 years; 65.8% males) were analyzed. Hepatitis B virus (HBV) was the most common etiology (23.3%), with 25% (n = 1352) developing HCC over a 2.9-year follow-up period. Patients with multiple etiologies had the HCC highest incidence (30.3%), followed by those with HBV-related cirrhosis (29.5%). Significant risk factors included male sex, advanced age, hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection, elevated blood ammonia, and low platelet count. Men had a higher 5-year HCC risk than women (37.0% vs 31.5%). HBV, HCV, and HBV/HCV co-infected patients had 5-year risks of HCC of 45.8%, 42.9%, and 48.1%, respectively, compared to 29.5% in nonviral hepatitis cases, highlighting the significant HCC risk from viral hepatitis, especially HBV, and underscores the importance of monitoring these high-risk groups.

CONCLUSION

In conclusion, HBV-related cirrhosis strongly correlates with HCC, with male sex, older age, viral hepatitis, elevated blood ammonia, and lower albumin and platelet levels increasing the risk of HCC.

Serum levels of total bile acids are associated with an increased risk of HCC in patients with cirrhosis

BACKGROUND

Previous studies have reported higher circulating bile acid levels in patients with HCC compared to healthy controls. However, the association between prediagnostic bile acid levels and HCC risk among patients with cirrhosis is unclear.

METHODS

We measured total BA (TBA) concentration in serum samples collected from a prospective cohort of patients with cirrhosis who were followed until the development of HCC, death, or last study date. Competing risk proportional hazard-adjusted models were used to estimate the association between tertiles of serum TBA levels and the risk of developing HCC. We quantified the incremental predictive value of serum bile acid when added to a previously validated clinical model.

RESULTS

We analyzed data from 940 patients with cirrhosis, of whom 68 patients progressed to HCC during 3406 person-years of follow-up. Higher baseline serum TBA level was significantly associated with an increased risk of developing HCC with an adjusted HR of 3.69 (95% CI = 1.85-7.37) for the highest versus lowest tertile. TBA levels significantly increased predictive ability for progression to HCC at 2 years of follow-up; the c statistic increased from 0.74 to 0.80 (p < 0.001). There was evidence for a significant interaction between TBA level and hepatitis C (p = 0.04).

CONCLUSIONS

In a large prospective cohort study, the prediagnostic serum level of TBAs was associated with a significant increase in the risk of developing HCC among patients with multi-etiology cirrhosis. The TBA-associated risk was additive to that of established demographic and clinical predictors.

Differences in Prediagnostic Serum Metabolomic and Lipidomic Profiles Between Cirrhosis Patients with and without Incident Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Background

Early detection of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is crucial for improving patient outcomes, but we lack robust clinical biomarkers. This study aimed to identify a metabolite and/or lipid panel for early HCC detection.

Methods

We developed a high-resolution liquid chromatography mass spectrometry (LC-MS)-based profiling platform and evaluated differences in the global metabolome and lipidome between 28 pre-diagnostic serum samples from patients with cirrhosis who subsequently developed HCC (cases) and 30 samples from patients with cirrhosis and no HCC (controls). We linked differentially expressed metabolites and lipids to their associated genes, proteins, and transcriptomic signatures in publicly available datasets. We used machine learning models to identify a minimal panel to distinguish between cases and controls.

Results

Among cases compared with controls, 124 metabolites and 246 lipids were upregulated, while 208 metabolites and 73 lipids were downregulated. The top upregulated metabolites were glycoursodeoxycholic acid, 5-methyltetrahydrofolic acid, octanoyl-coenzyme A, and glycocholic acid. Elevated lipids comprised glycerol lipids, cardiolipin, and phosphatidylethanolamine, whereas suppressed lipids included oxidized phosphatidylcholine and lysophospholipids. There was an overlap between differentially expressed metabolites and lipids and previously published transcriptomic signatures, illustrating an association with liver disease severity. A panel of 12 metabolites that distinguished between cases and controls with an area under the receiver operating curve of 0.98 for the support vector machine (interquartile range, 0.9-1).

Conclusion

Using prediagnostic serum samples, we identified a promising metabolites panel that accurately identifies patients with cirrhosis who progressed to HCC. Further validation of this panel is required.

PNPLA3, Obesity, and Heavy Alcohol Use in Cirrhosis Patients May Exert a Synergistic Increase Hepatocellular Carcinoma Risk

BACKGROUND & AIMS

In patients with cirrhosis, continued heavy alcohol consumption and obesity may increase risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). We examined whether germline susceptibility to hepatic steatosis not only independently predisposes to HCC but may also act synergistically with other risk factors.

METHODS

We analyzed data from 1911 patients in 2 multicenter prospective cohort studies in the United States. We classified patients according to alcohol consumption (current heavy vs not current heavy), obesity (body mass index ≥30 vs <30 kg/m2), and PNPLA3 I148M variant status (carrier of at least one G risk allele vs noncarrier). We examined the independent and joint effects of these risk factors on risk of developing HCC using Cox regression with competing risks.

RESULTS

Mean age was 59.6 years, 64.3% were male, 28.7% were Hispanic, 18.3% were non-Hispanic Black, 50.9% were obese, 6.2% had current heavy alcohol consumption, and 58.4% harbored at least 1 PNPLA3 G-allele. One hundred sixteen patients developed HCC. Compared with PNPLA3 noncarriers without heavy alcohol consumption, HCC risk was 2.65-fold higher (hazard ratio [HR], 2.65; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.20-5.86) for carriers who had current heavy alcohol consumption. Compared with noncarrier patients without obesity, HCC risk was higher (HR, 2.40; 95% CI, 1.33-4.31) for carrier patients who were obese. PNPLA3 and alcohol consumption effect was stronger among patients with viral etiology of cirrhosis (HR, 3.42; 95% CI, 1.31-8.90). PNPLA3 improved 1-year risk prediction for HCC when added to a clinical risk model.

CONCLUSIONS

The PNPLA3 variant may help refine risk stratification for HCC in patients with cirrhosis with heavy alcohol consumption or obesity who may need specific preventive measures.

Validation of the Texas Hepatocellular Carcinoma Risk Index Predictive Model for Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Asian Cohort

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) represents a significant global health burden, with its incidence and mortality rates varying significantly across different geographic regions. This variance is largely attributed to differences in the prevalence of risk factors such as hepatitis B and C infections, and alcohol consumption, as well as genetic predispositions that are distinct between Eastern and Western populations. Moreover, the impact of racial and ethnic diversity on the disease's epidemiology further complicates the global understanding and prediction of HCC. Such disparities highlight the critical need to evaluate the applicability of predictive models across diverse populations, acknowledging that a model developed in one region may not necessarily translate with the same accuracy or effectiveness when applied to another, because of these underlying epidemiologic and genetic differences. In this study, we aimed to assess the cross-regional applicability and accuracy of an HCC prediction model (Texas hepatocellular carcinoma risk index [THCC-RI] predictive model) originally developed in Western populations, within an Eastern context.1,2.

Serum biomarker signature is predictive of the risk of hepatocellular cancer in patients with cirrhosis

BACKGROUND

Inflammatory and metabolic biomarkers have been associated with hepatocellular cancer (HCC) risk in phases I and II biomarker studies. We developed and internally validated a robust metabolic biomarker panel predictive of HCC in a longitudinal phase III study.

METHODS

We used data and banked serum from a prospective cohort of 2266 adult patients with cirrhosis who were followed until the development of HCC (n=126). We custom designed a FirePlex immunoassay to measure baseline serum levels of 39 biomarkers and established a set of biomarkers with the highest discriminatory ability for HCC. We performed bootstrapping to evaluate the predictive performance using C-index and time-dependent area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). We quantified the incremental predictive value of the biomarker panel when added to previously validated clinical models.

RESULTS

We identified a nine-biomarker panel (P9) with a C-index of 0.67 (95% CI 0.66 to 0.67), including insulin growth factor-1, interleukin-10, transforming growth factor β1, adipsin, fetuin-A, interleukin-1 β, macrophage stimulating protein α chain, serum amyloid A and TNF-α. Adding P9 to our clinical model with 10 factors including AFP improved AUROC at 1 and 2 years by 4.8% and 2.7%, respectively. Adding P9 to aMAP score improved AUROC at 1 and 2 years by 14.2% and 7.6%, respectively. Adding AFP L-3 or DCP did not change the predictive ability of the P9 model.

CONCLUSIONS

We identified a panel of nine serum biomarkers that is independently associated with developing HCC in cirrhosis and that improved the predictive ability of risk stratification models containing clinical factors.