1
|
Kanwal F, Khaderi S, Singal AG, Marrero JA, Asrani SK, Amos CI, Thrift AP, Kramer JR, Yu X, Cao Y, Luster M, Al-Sarraj A, Ning J, El-Serag HB. Risk Stratification Model for Hepatocellular Cancer in Patients With Cirrhosis. Clin Gastroenterol Hepatol 2023; 21:3296-3304.e3. [PMID: 37390101 PMCID: PMC10661677 DOI: 10.1016/j.cgh.2023.04.019] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/03/2023] [Revised: 04/07/2023] [Accepted: 04/13/2023] [Indexed: 07/02/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND & AIMS The available risk stratification indices for hepatocellular cancer (HCC) have limited applicability. We developed and externally validated an HCC risk stratification index in U.S. cohorts of patients with cirrhosis. METHODS We used data from 2 prospective U.S. cohorts to develop the risk index. Patients with cirrhosis were enrolled from 8 centers and followed until development of HCC, death, or December 31, 2021. We identified an optimal set of predictors with the highest discriminatory ability (C-index) for HCC. The predictors were refit using competing risk regression and its predictive performance was evaluated using the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUROC). External validation was performed in a cohort of 21,550 patients with cirrhosis seen in the U.S Veterans Affairs system between 2018 and 2019 with follow-up through 2021. RESULTS We developed the model in 2431 patients (mean age 60 years, 31% women, 24% cured hepatitis C, 16% alcoholic liver disease, and 29% nonalcoholic fatty liver disease). The selected model had a C-index of 0.77 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.73-0.81), and the predictors were age, sex, smoking, alcohol use, body mass index, etiology, α-fetoprotein, albumin, alanine aminotransferase, and platelet levels. The AUROCs were 0.75 (95% CI, 0.65-0.85) at 1 year and 0.77 (95% CI, 0.71-0.83) at 2 years, and the model was well calibrated. In the external validation cohort, the AUROC at 2 years was 0.70 with excellent calibration. CONCLUSION The risk index, including objective and routinely available risk factors, can differentiate patients with cirrhosis who will develop HCC and help guide discussions regarding HCC surveillance and prevention. Future studies are needed for additional external validation and refinement of risk stratification.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Fasiha Kanwal
- Section of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Medicine, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, Texas; Section of Health Services Research, Department of Medicine, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, Texas; VA HSR&D Center for Innovatio ns in Quality, Effectiveness, and Safety, Michael E. DeBakey Veterans Affairs Medical Center, Houston, Texas.
| | - Saira Khaderi
- Section of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Medicine, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, Texas
| | - Amit G Singal
- Division of Digestive and Liver Diseases, Department of Medicine, UT Southwestern Medical Center, Dallas, Texas
| | - Jorge A Marrero
- Division of Digestive and Liver Diseases, Department of Medicine, UT Southwestern Medical Center, Dallas, Texas
| | - Sumeet K Asrani
- Division of Gastroenterology, Department of Medicine, Baylor University Medical Center, Dallas, Texas
| | - Christopher I Amos
- Section of Epidemiology, Department of Medicine, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, Texas
| | - Aaron P Thrift
- Section of Epidemiology, Department of Medicine, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, Texas
| | - Jennifer R Kramer
- Section of Health Services Research, Department of Medicine, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, Texas; VA HSR&D Center for Innovatio ns in Quality, Effectiveness, and Safety, Michael E. DeBakey Veterans Affairs Medical Center, Houston, Texas
| | - Xian Yu
- Section of Health Services Research, Department of Medicine, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, Texas; VA HSR&D Center for Innovatio ns in Quality, Effectiveness, and Safety, Michael E. DeBakey Veterans Affairs Medical Center, Houston, Texas
| | - Yumei Cao
- Section of Health Services Research, Department of Medicine, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, Texas; VA HSR&D Center for Innovatio ns in Quality, Effectiveness, and Safety, Michael E. DeBakey Veterans Affairs Medical Center, Houston, Texas
| | - Michelle Luster
- Section of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Medicine, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, Texas
| | - Abeer Al-Sarraj
- Section of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Medicine, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, Texas; Section of Health Services Research, Department of Medicine, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, Texas; VA HSR&D Center for Innovatio ns in Quality, Effectiveness, and Safety, Michael E. DeBakey Veterans Affairs Medical Center, Houston, Texas
| | - Jing Ning
- Department of Biostatistics, University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas
| | - Hashem B El-Serag
- Section of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Medicine, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, Texas; Section of Health Services Research, Department of Medicine, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, Texas; VA HSR&D Center for Innovatio ns in Quality, Effectiveness, and Safety, Michael E. DeBakey Veterans Affairs Medical Center, Houston, Texas.
| |
Collapse
|
2
|
Kanwal F, Khaderi S, Singal AG, Marrero JA, Loo N, Asrani SK, Amos CI, Thrift AP, Gu X, Luster M, Al-Sarraj A, Ning J, El-Serag HB. Risk factors for HCC in contemporary cohorts of patients with cirrhosis. Hepatology 2023; 77:997-1005. [PMID: 35229329 PMCID: PMC9433461 DOI: 10.1002/hep.32434] [Citation(s) in RCA: 29] [Impact Index Per Article: 29.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/24/2021] [Revised: 02/22/2022] [Accepted: 02/23/2022] [Indexed: 12/12/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND AND AIMS Etiological risk factors for cirrhosis have changed in the last decade. It remains unclear to what extent these trends in cirrhosis risk factors have changed HCC risk. APPROACH AND RESULTS We used data from two contemporary, prospective multiethnic cohorts of patients with cirrhosis: the Texas Hepatocellular Carcinoma Consortium Cohort and the Houston Veterans Administration Cirrhosis Surveillance Cohort. Patients with cirrhosis were enrolled from seven US centers and followed until HCC diagnosis, transplant, death, or June 30, 2021. We calculated the annual incidence rates for HCC and examined the effects of etiology, demographic, clinical, and lifestyle factors on the risk of HCC. We included 2733 patients with cirrhosis (mean age 60.1 years, 31.3% women). At enrollment, 19.0% had active HCV, 23.3% had cured HCV, 16.1% had alcoholic liver disease, and 30.1% had NAFLD. During 7406 person-years of follow-up, 135 patients developed HCC at an annual incidence rate of 1.82% (95% CI, 1.51-2.13). The annual HCC incidence rate was 1.71% in patients with cured HCV, 1.32% in patients with alcoholic liver disease, and 1.24% in patients with NAFLD cirrhosis. Compared to patients with NAFLD, the risk of progression to HCC was 2-fold higher in patients with cured HCV (HR, 2.04; 95% CI, 1.24-3.35). Current smoking (HR, 1.63; 95% CI, 1.01-2.63) and overweight/obesity (HR, 1.79; 95% CI, 1.08-2.95) were also associated with HCC risk. CONCLUSIONS HCC incidence among patients with cirrhosis was lower than previously reported. HCC risk was variable across etiologies, with higher risk in patients with HCV cirrhosis and lower risk in those with NAFLD cirrhosis. Current smoking and overweight/obesity increased HCC risk across etiologies.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Fasiha Kanwal
- Section of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Medicine, Baylor College of Medicine, Michael E. DeBakey Veterans Affairs Medical Center, Houston, Texas, USA
- Section of Health Services Research, Department of Medicine, Baylor College of Medicine, Michael E. DeBakey Veterans Affairs Medical Center, Houston, Texas, USA
- Section of VA HSR&D Center for Innovations in Quality, Effectiveness, and Safety (IQuESt), Michael E. DeBakey Veterans Affairs Medical Center, Houston, Texas, USA
| | - Saira Khaderi
- Section of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Medicine, Baylor College of Medicine, Michael E. DeBakey Veterans Affairs Medical Center, Houston, Texas, USA
| | - Amit G. Singal
- Division of Digestive and Liver Diseases, Department of Medicine, UT Southwestern Medical Center, Dallas, Texas, USA
| | - Jorge A. Marrero
- Division of Digestive and Liver Diseases, Department of Medicine, UT Southwestern Medical Center, Dallas, Texas, USA
| | - Nicole Loo
- Texas Liver Institute, San Antonio, Texas, USA
| | | | - Christopher I. Amos
- Section of Epidemiology, Department of Medicine, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, TX, USA
| | - Aaron P. Thrift
- Section of Epidemiology, Department of Medicine, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, TX, USA
| | - Xiangjun Gu
- Section of Epidemiology, Department of Medicine, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, TX, USA
| | - Michelle Luster
- Section of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Medicine, Baylor College of Medicine, Michael E. DeBakey Veterans Affairs Medical Center, Houston, Texas, USA
| | - Abeer Al-Sarraj
- Section of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Medicine, Baylor College of Medicine, Michael E. DeBakey Veterans Affairs Medical Center, Houston, Texas, USA
- Section of Health Services Research, Department of Medicine, Baylor College of Medicine, Michael E. DeBakey Veterans Affairs Medical Center, Houston, Texas, USA
- Section of VA HSR&D Center for Innovations in Quality, Effectiveness, and Safety (IQuESt), Michael E. DeBakey Veterans Affairs Medical Center, Houston, Texas, USA
| | - Jing Ning
- Department of Biostatistics, UT MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas, USA
| | - Hashem B. El-Serag
- Section of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Medicine, Baylor College of Medicine, Michael E. DeBakey Veterans Affairs Medical Center, Houston, Texas, USA
- Section of Health Services Research, Department of Medicine, Baylor College of Medicine, Michael E. DeBakey Veterans Affairs Medical Center, Houston, Texas, USA
- Section of VA HSR&D Center for Innovations in Quality, Effectiveness, and Safety (IQuESt), Michael E. DeBakey Veterans Affairs Medical Center, Houston, Texas, USA
| |
Collapse
|
3
|
Thrift AP, Kanwal F, Liu Y, Khaderi S, Singal AG, Marrero JA, Loo N, Asrani SK, Luster M, Al-Sarraj A, Ning J, Tsavachidis S, Gu X, Amos CI, El-Serag HB. Risk stratification for hepatocellular cancer among patients with cirrhosis using a hepatic fat polygenic risk score. PLoS One 2023; 18:e0282309. [PMID: 36854015 PMCID: PMC9974109 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0282309] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/04/2022] [Accepted: 02/12/2023] [Indexed: 03/02/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Polygenic risk scores (PRS) hold the promise to refine prognostication in hepatocellular cancer (HCC). The few available HCC PRS include germline risk variants identified among individuals of mostly European ancestry, but data are lacking on the transportability of these PRS in multiethnic U.S patients with cirrhosis from multiple etiologies. METHODS We used data from 1644 patients with cirrhosis enrolled in two prospective cohort studies in the U.S. Patients were followed until HCC diagnosis, death, liver transplantation, or last study visit through June 30, 2021. The high-risk variants in PNPLA3-MBOAT7-TM6SF2-GCKR were combined in a PRS and we evaluated its association with HCC. Discriminatory accuracy was assessed using the C-statistic. RESULTS During 4,759 person-years of follow-up, 93 patients developed HCC. Mean age was 59.8 years, 68.6% were male, 27.2% Hispanic, 25.1% non-Hispanic Black, 25.7% had NAFLD, 42.1% had heavy alcohol use, and 19.5% had active HCV. HCC risk increased by 134% per unit increase in PRS (HR = 2.30; 95% CI, 1.35-3.92). Compared to cirrhosis patients in the lowest tertile of the PRS, those in the highest tertile had 2-fold higher risk of HCC (HR = 2.05; 95% CI, 1.22-3.44). The PRS alone had modest discriminatory ability (C-statistic = 0.58; 95% CI, 0.52-0.63); however, adding PRS to a predictive model with traditional HCC risk factors had a C-statistic of 0.70 (95% CI, 0.64-0.76), increasing from 0.68 without the PRS (p = 0.0012). CONCLUSIONS Our findings suggest that PRS may enhance risk prediction for HCC in contemporary U.S. cirrhosis patients.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Aaron P. Thrift
- Section of Epidemiology and Population Sciences, Department of Medicine, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, TX, United States of America
- Dan L Duncan Comprehensive Cancer Center, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, TX, United States of America
| | - Fasiha Kanwal
- Section of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Medicine, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, TX, United States of America
- Center for Innovations in Quality, Effectiveness and Safety (IQuESt), Michael E DeBakey Veterans Affairs Medical Center, Houston, TX, United States of America
| | - Yanhong Liu
- Section of Epidemiology and Population Sciences, Department of Medicine, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, TX, United States of America
- Dan L Duncan Comprehensive Cancer Center, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, TX, United States of America
| | - Saira Khaderi
- Section of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Medicine, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, TX, United States of America
| | - Amit G. Singal
- Division of Digestive and Liver Diseases, Department of Medicine, UT Southwestern Medical Center, Dallas, Texas, United States of America
| | - Jorge A. Marrero
- Division of Digestive and Liver Diseases, Department of Medicine, UT Southwestern Medical Center, Dallas, Texas, United States of America
| | - Nicole Loo
- Texas Liver Institute, San Antonio, Texas, United States of America
| | - Sumeet K. Asrani
- Baylor University Medical Center, Dallas, Texas, United States of America
| | - Michelle Luster
- Section of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Medicine, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, TX, United States of America
| | - Abeer Al-Sarraj
- Section of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Medicine, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, TX, United States of America
- Center for Innovations in Quality, Effectiveness and Safety (IQuESt), Michael E DeBakey Veterans Affairs Medical Center, Houston, TX, United States of America
| | - Jing Ning
- Department of Biostatistics, UT MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas, United States of America
| | - Spiridon Tsavachidis
- Section of Epidemiology and Population Sciences, Department of Medicine, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, TX, United States of America
| | - Xiangjun Gu
- Section of Epidemiology and Population Sciences, Department of Medicine, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, TX, United States of America
| | - Christopher I. Amos
- Section of Epidemiology and Population Sciences, Department of Medicine, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, TX, United States of America
- Dan L Duncan Comprehensive Cancer Center, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, TX, United States of America
| | - Hashem B. El-Serag
- Section of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Medicine, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, TX, United States of America
- Center for Innovations in Quality, Effectiveness and Safety (IQuESt), Michael E DeBakey Veterans Affairs Medical Center, Houston, TX, United States of America
| |
Collapse
|
4
|
Al-Sarraj A, Al-Habity A. Effect of formaldehyde vapor on the blood constituents of male rabbits. IJVS 2013. [DOI: 10.33899/ijvs.2013.82864] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/23/2022] Open
|