Risk factors for HCC in contemporary cohorts of patients with cirrhosis

Patient's informational needs and outreach preferences: A cross-sectional survey study in patients with hepatobiliary malignancies

Objective

Hepatobiliary tumors have evolving management guidelines. Patient educational needs and interest in community engagement are unknown. This study serves as a needs assessment.

Methods

A prospective, needs assessment, survey study of hepatobiliary patients was performed (2016-2019). Surveys (n = 169) were distributed covering three domains of interest: informational needs, interest in outreach, and engagement preferences.

Results

Seventy patients completed the survey (response rate = 41.4%). Most patients had completed surgical treatment (84.3%). Cancer treatment was ranked as their primary topic of interest (n = 39, 55.7bold%), followed by symptom management, nutrition, and survivorship. Most patients did not participate in screening (n = 57, 81.4%), though were interested in learning more about these programs. Thirty-nine patients (55.7%) stated they would want to receive more education. Only 17 (24.3%) were interested in attending in-person events. Patients preferred online methods for education (n = 49, 70%). While patients were aware of their case presentation at tumor board, only 38 (54.3%) felt well-informed about recommendations.

Conclusion

Multidisciplinary care is complex and difficult for patients to navigate. Most patients have interest in educational resources and prefer online modalities. Patients understand multidisciplinary tumor boards, but communication could be improved.

Innovation

These data inform a new, innovative, approach to outreach efforts in this population.

Metformin as adjuvant treatment in hepatitis C virus infections and associated complications

Hepatitis C virus is an important global cause of hepatitis and subsequently cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma. These infections may also cause extrahepatic manifestations, including insulin resistance and type 2 diabetes mellitus. These two complications can potentially reduce sustained virologic responses (SVR) in some drug regimens for this infection. Metformin has important biochemical effects that can limit viral replication in cellular cultures and can improve the response to antiviral drug therapy based on ribavirin and interferon. Clinical studies comparing treatment regimens with interferon, ribavirin, metformin with these regimens without metformin have demonstrated that metformin increases viral clearance, establishes higher rates of SVRs, and increases insulin sensitivity. Metformin also reduces the frequency of hepatocellular carcinoma in patients who have had SVRs. Larger treatment trials are needed to determine metformin's short-term and long-term treatment effects in patients with diabetes using newer antiviral drugs. In particular, if metformin reduces the frequency of cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma, this would significantly reduce the morbidity and mortality associated with this infection.

Hepatitis-C-Related Hepatocellular Carcinoma, Still a Relevant Etiology beyond a Hepatitis C Infection Cure

BACKGROUND

In the past decades, global changes, including hepatitis B vaccination, hepatitis B and C antiviral therapies, and the increasing prevalence of steatotic liver disease, have influenced the landscape of liver cancer etiologies.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective study focused on the etiological factors of de novo hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) diagnoses in an academic center between 2019 and 2022.

RESULTS

Among 352 consecutive patients with HCC, alcohol-related liver disease was the predominant etiology (33.3%), followed by hepatitis C (HCV) infection (30.7%). Significant associations were found between HCC etiology and patient demographics, BCLC stage at diagnosis, and cirrhosis prevalence.

CONCLUSIONS

Whereas accessibility to antiviral therapy is granted, HCV infection remains as one of the main HCC etiologies. MASLD-related HCC, although growing globally, is not as relevant in our area. Strong public policies need to be implemented to prevent alcohol consumption, the main etiology of liver disease and liver cancer.

Serum biomarker signature is predictive of the risk of hepatocellular cancer in patients with cirrhosis

BACKGROUND

Inflammatory and metabolic biomarkers have been associated with hepatocellular cancer (HCC) risk in phases I and II biomarker studies. We developed and internally validated a robust metabolic biomarker panel predictive of HCC in a longitudinal phase III study.

METHODS

We used data and banked serum from a prospective cohort of 2266 adult patients with cirrhosis who were followed until the development of HCC (n=126). We custom designed a FirePlex immunoassay to measure baseline serum levels of 39 biomarkers and established a set of biomarkers with the highest discriminatory ability for HCC. We performed bootstrapping to evaluate the predictive performance using C-index and time-dependent area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). We quantified the incremental predictive value of the biomarker panel when added to previously validated clinical models.

RESULTS

We identified a nine-biomarker panel (P9) with a C-index of 0.67 (95% CI 0.66 to 0.67), including insulin growth factor-1, interleukin-10, transforming growth factor β1, adipsin, fetuin-A, interleukin-1 β, macrophage stimulating protein α chain, serum amyloid A and TNF-α. Adding P9 to our clinical model with 10 factors including AFP improved AUROC at 1 and 2 years by 4.8% and 2.7%, respectively. Adding P9 to aMAP score improved AUROC at 1 and 2 years by 14.2% and 7.6%, respectively. Adding AFP L-3 or DCP did not change the predictive ability of the P9 model.

CONCLUSIONS

We identified a panel of nine serum biomarkers that is independently associated with developing HCC in cirrhosis and that improved the predictive ability of risk stratification models containing clinical factors.

Approved immune checkpoint inhibitors in hepatocellular carcinoma: a large-scale meta-analysis and systematic review

A meta-analysis was performed to assess the benefits and safety profile of approved immune checkpoint inhibitors in hepatocellular carcinoma patients. Eligible studies were searched from Cochrane, Embase, and PubMed databases based on a well-established strategy. Following the exclusion of ineligible studies, 12 studies were included in this meta-analysis. Compared with control group, immune checkpoint inhibitors were associated with improved ORR (OR 3.03, 95% CI 2.26-4.05, P < 0.00001), SD (OR 0.77, 95% CI 0.62-0.95, P = 0.02), OS (HR 0.75, 95% CI 0.68-0.83, P < 0.00001), and PFS (HR 0.74, 95% CI 0.63-0.87, P < 0.0003). However, no significant differences were observed in DCR (OR 1.33, 95% CI 0.97-1.81, P = 0.07), PD (OR 0.90, 95% CI 0.67-1.21, P = 0.48), and all caused any-grade adverse events (OR 1.22, 95% CI 0.62-2.39, P = 0. 57), all caused ≥ grade 3 adverse events (OR 1.10, 95% CI 0.97-1.25, P = 0.14), treatment-related any-grade adverse events (OR 1.13, 95% CI 0.55-2.32, P = 0.73), and treatment-related ≥ grade 3 events (OR 0.82, 95% CI 0.34-1.97, P = 0.65) between the two groups. After subgroup analysis conducted, patients in the immune checkpoint inhibitor group compared with targeted drug group showed significant improvements in OS (HR 0.74, 95% CI 0.66-0.84, P < 0.00001) and PFS (HR 0.75, 95% CI 0.61-0.91, P = 0.004). Immune checkpoint inhibitors have demonstrated peculiar benefits in the treatment of HCC with an acceptable safety profile. Compared to targeted drugs, immune checkpoint inhibitors still offer advantages in the treatment of hepatocellular carcinoma. However, there is still considerable room for further improvement.

Hepatocellular and extrahepatic cancer risk in people with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is the most common chronic liver disease worldwide. Much of the recognised health-care burden occurs in the minority of people with NAFLD who progress towards cirrhosis and require specialist follow-up, including risk stratification and hepatocellular carcinoma surveillance. NAFLD is projected to become the leading global cause of cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma, but the frequency of non-cirrhotic hepatocellular carcinoma provides a challenge to existing surveillance strategies. Deaths from extrahepatic cancers far exceed those from hepatocellular carcinoma in NAFLD. Unlike hepatocellular carcinoma, the increased extrahepatic cancer risk in NAFLD is not dependent on liver fibrosis stage. Given that almost 30% of the world's adult population has NAFLD, extrahepatic cancer could represent a substantial health and economic issue. In this Review, we discuss current knowledge and controversies regarding hepatocellular carcinoma risk stratification and surveillance practices in people with NAFLD. We also assess the associations of extrahepatic cancers with NAFLD and their relevance both in the clinic and the wider community.

Mechanism of action and treatment of type I interferon in hepatocellular carcinoma

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) caused by HBV, HCV infection, and other factors is one of the most common malignancies in the world. Although, percutaneous treatments such as surgery, ethanol injection, radiofrequency ablation, and transcatheter treatments such as arterial chemoembolization are useful for local tumor control, they are not sufficient to improve the prognosis of patients with HCC. External interferon agents that induce interferon-related genes or type I interferon in combination with other drugs can reduce the recurrence rate and improve survival in HCC patients after surgery. Therefore, in this review, we focus on recent advances in the mechanism of action of type I interferons, emerging therapies, and potential therapeutic strategies for the treatment of HCC using IFNs.

Changing Epidemiology of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Within the United States and Worldwide

Globally, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a major cause of cancer-related death and a leading cause of morbidity and mortality in patients with chronic liver disease and cirrhosis. The predominant cause of HCC is shifting from viral to nonviral causes, in parallel with the high global prevalence of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease and increasing alcohol consumption in many countries. There have been promising recent advances in the treatment of all stages of HCC; however, improvements in early detection, increased utilization of HCC surveillance, and equitable access to HCC therapies are needed to curb increases in HCC mortality.

Hepatocellular Carcinoma Surveillance: Evidence-Based Tailored Approach

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) surveillance is recommended by professional society guidelines given a consistent association with reduced HCC-related mortality. HCC surveillance should be performed using semiannual abdominal ultrasound and alpha-fetoprotein, although this combination has suboptimal sensitivity and can miss more than one-third of HCC at an early stage. There are promising emerging blood-based and imaging-based strategies, including abbreviated MRI and biomarker panels; however, these require further validation before routine use in clinical practice. HCC surveillance is underused in clinical practice due to patient-related and provider-related barriers, highlighting a need for interventions to improve surveillance utilization in clinical practice.

Comparative effectiveness of tenofovir versus entecavir in patients with hepatitis B virus-related cirrhosis in Taiwan: a retrospective cohort study

Background: Tenofovir and entecavir demonstrated substantial effectiveness in the reversion of fibrosis and reversed cirrhosis in patients with hepatitis B virus (HBV)-related cirrhosis. However, there has not been a definitive conclusion regarding the association between entecavir and tenofovir on the risk of cirrhosis-related complications. Therefore, this study aimed to investigate the comparative effectiveness between tenofovir and entecavir in HBV-related cirrhosis patients. Methods: This was a retrospective study using Taiwan's Health Insurance Research Database. We enrolled newly diagnosed HBV-related cirrhosis patients who initiated entecavir and tenofovir between 2011 and 2019. Treatment groups were determined by the initial HBV antiviral medication prescribed. The primary composite outcome was the development of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), death from any causes, and liver transplantation. The secondary outcomes included all the individual components of the primary outcome. The incidence rate was calculated for each outcome for both treatment groups using the Fine-Gray subdistribution hazard models. Propensity score adjustment was used to balance treatment groups. Results: A total of 7,316 propensity score-matched treatment-naïve patients and 3,524 propensity score-matched treatment-experienced patients were included. Within treatment-naïve patients, those receiving tenofovir showed significantly lower hazards of developing the composite outcome (HR, 0.79; p < 0.0001), hepatocellular carcinoma (HR, 0.86; p = 0.027), mortality (HR, 0.75; p < 0.0001), and liver transplantation (HR, 0.70; p = 0.0189) than those receiving entecavir. As for treatment-experienced patients, tenofovir was associated with a significantly lower risk of the composite outcome (HR, 0.82; p = 0.0033) and hepatocellular carcinoma (HR, 0.60; p < 0.0001), but it did not show a significantly different risk of all-cause mortality (HR, 0.93; p = 0.3374) or liver transplantation (HR, 1.17; p = 0.5112) compared to entecavir. Conclusion: Tenofovir presented a significantly lower incidence of cirrhosis-related complications than entecavir in patients with hepatitis B virus-related cirrhosis. However, no statistically significant difference in death and liver transplantation was seen in treatment-experienced patients.

Hepatocellular carcinoma surveillance - utilization, barriers and the impact of changing aetiology

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the third leading cause of cancer death worldwide. Surveillance for HCC is critical for early detection and treatment, but fewer than one-quarter of individuals at risk of HCC undergo surveillance. Multiple failures across the screening process contribute to the underutilization of surveillance, including limited disease awareness among patients and health-care providers, knowledge gaps, and difficulty recognizing patients who are at risk. Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and alcohol-associated liver disease are the fastest-rising causes of HCC-related death worldwide and are associated with unique barriers to surveillance. In particular, more than one-third of patients with HCC related to non-alcoholic fatty liver disease do not have cirrhosis and therefore lack a routine indication for HCC surveillance on the basis of current practice guidelines. Semi-annual abdominal ultrasound with measurement of α-fetoprotein levels is recommended for HCC surveillance, but the sensitivity of this approach for early HCC is limited, especially for patients with cirrhosis or obesity. In this Review, we discuss the current status of HCC surveillance and the remaining challenges, including the changing aetiology of liver disease. We also discuss strategies to improve the utilization and quality of surveillance for HCC.

Risk Stratification Model for Hepatocellular Cancer in Patients With Cirrhosis

BACKGROUND & AIMS

The available risk stratification indices for hepatocellular cancer (HCC) have limited applicability. We developed and externally validated an HCC risk stratification index in U.S. cohorts of patients with cirrhosis.

METHODS

We used data from 2 prospective U.S. cohorts to develop the risk index. Patients with cirrhosis were enrolled from 8 centers and followed until development of HCC, death, or December 31, 2021. We identified an optimal set of predictors with the highest discriminatory ability (C-index) for HCC. The predictors were refit using competing risk regression and its predictive performance was evaluated using the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUROC). External validation was performed in a cohort of 21,550 patients with cirrhosis seen in the U.S Veterans Affairs system between 2018 and 2019 with follow-up through 2021.

RESULTS

We developed the model in 2431 patients (mean age 60 years, 31% women, 24% cured hepatitis C, 16% alcoholic liver disease, and 29% nonalcoholic fatty liver disease). The selected model had a C-index of 0.77 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.73-0.81), and the predictors were age, sex, smoking, alcohol use, body mass index, etiology, α-fetoprotein, albumin, alanine aminotransferase, and platelet levels. The AUROCs were 0.75 (95% CI, 0.65-0.85) at 1 year and 0.77 (95% CI, 0.71-0.83) at 2 years, and the model was well calibrated. In the external validation cohort, the AUROC at 2 years was 0.70 with excellent calibration.

CONCLUSION

The risk index, including objective and routinely available risk factors, can differentiate patients with cirrhosis who will develop HCC and help guide discussions regarding HCC surveillance and prevention. Future studies are needed for additional external validation and refinement of risk stratification.

Global trends in hepatocellular carcinoma epidemiology: implications for screening, prevention and therapy

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) mortality rates are increasing globally, and particularly in the Western world. Cirrhosis remains the predominant risk factor for HCC. However, epidemiological shifts in the incidence of HCC from patients with virus-related liver disease to those with non-viral aetiologies, including alcohol-associated and metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease, have important implications for prevention, surveillance and treatment. Hepatitis B vaccination and antiviral therapy for hepatitis B and C are effective for primary prevention of virus-related HCCs, but chemoprevention strategies for non-viral liver disease remain an unmet need. Emerging data suggest associations between aspirin, statins, metformin and coffee and reduced HCC incidence, although none has been proved to be causally related. Secondary prevention of HCC via semi-annual surveillance is associated with improvements in early detection and thus reduced mortality; however, current tools, including abdominal ultrasonography, have suboptimal sensitivity for the detection of early stage HCC, particularly in patients with obesity and/or non-viral liver disease. Promising blood-based or imaging-based surveillance strategies are emerging, although these approaches require further validation before adoption in clinical practice. In the interim, efforts should be focused on maximizing use of the existing surveillance tools given their prevalent underuse globally. Remarkable advances have been made in the treatment of HCC, including expanded eligibility for surgical therapies, improved patient selection for locoregional treatments and increased systemic treatment options, including immune-checkpoint inhibitors. In this Review, we discuss trends in the epidemiology of HCC and their implications for screening, prevention and therapy.

Bioimpedance analysis predicts the etiology of cirrhosis in a prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Obesity is associated with an increased risk of developing cirrhosis. However, body mass index (BMI) and waist-to-hip ratio (WHR) may not be indicative of body composition parameters that predispose to cirrhosis. Bioimpedance analysis (BIA) is a noninvasive cost-efficient method for more detailed estimation of body composition.

METHODS

We examined patients with cirrhosis who underwent BIA as part of enrollment into a prospective cohort study. We examined the correlation between BIA variables, BMI, and WHR. We performed sex-adjusted and race-adjusted and race-specific multivariable logistic regression analyses to examine the association between anthropometric variables and risk factors [NAFLD, alcohol-associated liver disease (ALD), and HCV].

RESULTS

We analyzed data from 348 cirrhosis patients; 23.3% were women; 48.3% were non-Hispanic White; 19.3% were Hispanic; and 30.7% were African American. The cirrhosis etiology was 21.8% NAFLD, 56.9% HCV mostly cured, and 11.5% ALD. Several BIA variables correlated well with BMI, and others showed modest correlations, but none correlated well with WHR. Higher body fat mass and basal metabolic rate were positively associated, while higher lean body mass, dry lean mass, total body water, or skeletal muscle mass were negatively associated with NAFLD. Associations between these BIA parameters and ALD-related cirrhosis were in the opposite direction. These associations of BIA variables were seen only in Hispanic and non-Hispanic White patients but not non-Hispanic Blacks. BIA variables were more predictive of cirrhosis etiology than BMI or WHR.

CONCLUSIONS

Among patients with cirrhosis, several BIA-derived measurements indicative of body fat and muscle are associated with NAFLD and ALD etiology. BIA variables show stronger associations, as well as race/ethnicity-specific associations, with cirrhosis etiology than those of BMI or WHR.

Incidence and Risk Factors for Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Cirrhosis: The Multicenter Hepatocellular Carcinoma Early Detection Strategy (HEDS) Study

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Worldwide, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a common malignancy. We aimed to prospectively determine the incidence and risk factors of HCC in a U.S.

COHORT

METHODS

The multicenter Hepatocellular Carcinoma Early Detection Strategy study of the National Institutes of Health prospectively enrolled patients with cirrhosis who underwent standard surveillance for HCC. Demographics, medical and family history, etiology of liver disease, and clinical features were evaluated for associations with HCC.

RESULTS

Between April 10, 2013 and December 31, 2021, 1723 patients were enrolled and confirmed eligible. During median follow-up of 2.2 years (range, 0-8.7 years), there were 109 incident cases of HCC for an incidence rate of 2.4 per 100 person-years: 88 (81%) patients with very early/early Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer stage (0, A), 20 (18%) intermediate stage (B), and 1 (1%) unknown stage. Risk factor analyses were restricted to 1325 patients, including 95 incident HCC, with at least 6 months of follow-up. The majority were men (53.2%), obese or severely obese (median body mass index, 30.2 kg/m2), and white (86.3%); 42.0% had history of hepatitis C virus infection, 20.7% had alcoholic liver disease, and 24.9% had nonalcoholic fatty liver disease. Fourteen risk factors for HCC were significant (P < .05) in univariate analyses, and a multivariate subset was selected using stepwise logistic regression. The multivariate subset contained gender (P < .001; male; odds ratio [OR], 2.47; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.54-4.07), years with cirrhosis (P = .004; OR, 1.06; 95% CI, 1.02-1.1), family history of liver cancer (P = .02; yes; OR, 2.69; 95% CI, 1.11-5.86), age (per 5 years; P = .02; OR, 1.17; 95% CI, 1.03-1.33), obesity (P = .02; yes; OR, 1.7; 95% CI, 1.08-2.73), aspartate aminotransferase (log(1+AST); P = .06; OR, 1.54; 95% CI, 0.97-2.42), alpha-fetoprotein (log(1+AFP); P = .07; OR, 1.32; 95% CI, 0.97-1.77), and albumin (P = .10; OR, 0.7; 95% CI, 0.46-1.07).

CONCLUSIONS

Thus far, this is the largest prospective and geographically diverse study of a U.S. cohort of patients with cirrhosis that validates known risk factors for HCC (gender, age, obesity, years with cirrhosis, family history of liver cancer, baseline AFP, albumin, and AST). The incidence of HCC was 2.4% per 100 person-years.

Risk of Hepatocellular Carcinoma After Spontaneous Clearance of Hepatitis C Virus and in Noncirrhosis Chronic Hepatitis C Patients With Sustained Virological Response: A Systematic Review

In a hepatitis C virus (HCV)-controlled human infection model (CHIM), healthy volunteers are inoculated with HCV and then treated. Residual hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk after viral clearance is an important consideration when evaluating the CHIM. We estimate HCC risk in spontaneously cleared HCV and in noncirrhosis after sustained virological response (SVR) to HCV treatment in a systematic review and using data from 3 cohorts: German anti-D, Taiwan, and US Veterans Affairs (VA). For noncirrhosis SVR, the overall HCC rate is 0.33 per 100 patient-years in meta-analysis. HCC rates for the German, Taiwan, and US Veterans Affairs cohorts are 0, 0.14, and 0.02 per 100 patient-years, respectively. Past hepatitis B virus exposure was not accounted for in the Taiwan cohort, while VA patients were likely tested based on liver disease/risk factors, which may confound HCC outcomes. The German cohort with no HCC after 44 years is most comparable to the CHIM participants. Although it is difficult to precisely estimate HCC risk from an HCV CHIM, the data suggest the risk to be very low or negligible.

Prevention of Hepatocellular Carcinoma (HCC). White Paper of the Texas Collaborative Center for Hepatocellular Cancer (TeCH) Multi-stakeholder Conference

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Texas has the highest age-adjusted incidence rate of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in the United States. The Cancer Prevention and Research Institute of Texas has funded the Texas Collaborative Center for Hepatocellular Cancer (TeCH) to facilitate HCC research, education, and advocacy activities with the overall goal of reducing HCC mortality in Texas through coordination, collaboration, and advocacy.

METHODS

On September 17, 2022, TeCH co-sponsored a multi-stakeholder conference on HCC with the Baker Institute Center for Health and Biosciences. This conference was attended by HCC researchers, policy makers, payers, members from pharmaceutical industry and patient advocacy groups in and outside of Texas. This report summarizes the results of the conference.

RESULTS

The goal of this meeting was to identify different strategies for preventing HCC and evaluate their readiness for implementation.

CONCLUSIONS

We call for a statewide (1) viral hepatitis elimination program; (2) program to increase nonalcoholic steatohepatitis and obesity awareness; (3) research program to develop health care models that integrate alcohol associated liver disease treatment and treatment for alcohol use disorder; and (4) demonstration projects to evaluate the effectiveness of identifying and linking patient with advanced fibrosis and cirrhosis to clinical care.

Estimated projection of incidence and mortality of alcohol-related liver disease in China from 2022 to 2040: a modeling study

BACKGROUND

China has one of the highest numbers of liver disease cases in the world, including 6.4 million cirrhosis associated with alcohol-related liver disease (ALD) cases. However, there is still a lack of urgent awareness about the growth of alcohol consumption and the increased burden of ALD in China. Therefore, we aimed to project the potential impact of changes in alcohol consumption on the burden of ALD in China up to 2040 under different scenarios.

METHODS

We developed a Markov model to simulate the natural history of ALD until 2040 in China. We estimated the incidence and mortality of alcohol-related cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma between 2022 and 2040 under four projected scenarios: status quo scenario and scenarios with a 2%, 4%, and 8% annual decrease in excessive alcohol consumption, respectively.

RESULTS

Under the status quo scenario, the cumulative new cases of cirrhosis from 2022 to 2040 was projected to be 3.61 million (95% UI 3.03-4.44 million), resulting in a cumulative 1.96 million (1.66-2.32 million) deaths from alcohol-related cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma. However, a 2% annual reduction in excessive alcohol consumption was expected to avert 0.3 million deaths associated with ALD, and a 4% annual reduction was projected to prevent about 1.36 million new cases of cirrhosis and prevent 0.5 million ALD-related deaths. Moreover, an 8% annual reduction would prevent about 2 million new cases of cirrhosis and 0.82 million deaths.

CONCLUSIONS

Without any substantial change in alcohol attitudes and policies to regulate excessive drinking, the disease burden of ALD in China will increase enormously. Strengthening the implementation of alcohol restriction interventions is critical and urgent to reduce the impact of ALD on the Chinese population.

Risk stratification and early detection biomarkers for precision HCC screening

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) mortality remains high primarily due to late diagnosis as a consequence of failed early detection. Professional societies recommend semi-annual HCC screening in at-risk patients with chronic liver disease to increase the likelihood of curative treatment receipt and improve survival. However, recent dynamic shift of HCC etiologies from viral to metabolic liver diseases has significantly increased the potential target population for the screening, whereas annual incidence rate has become substantially lower. Thus, with the contemporary HCC etiologies, the traditional screening approach might not be practical and cost-effective. HCC screening consists of (i) definition of rational at-risk population, and subsequent (ii) repeated application of early detection tests to the population at regular intervals. The suboptimal performance of the currently available HCC screening tests highlights an urgent need for new modalities and strategies to improve early HCC detection. In this review, we overview recent developments of clinical, molecular, and imaging-based tools to address the current challenge, and discuss conceptual framework and approaches of their clinical translation and implementation. These encouraging progresses are expected to transform the current "one-size-fits-all" HCC screening into individualized precision approaches to early HCC detection and ultimately improve the poor HCC prognosis in the foreseeable future.

Loss of the Novel Mitochondrial Membrane Protein FAM210B Is Associated with Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is an aggressive and challenging disease to treat. Due to the lack of effective early diagnosis and therapy for the illness, it is crucial to identify novel biomarkers that can predict tumor behavior in HCC. In such cases, family with sequence similarity 210 member B (FAM210B) is abundant in various human tissues, but its regulatory mechanisms and role in various tissues remain unclear. In this study, we analyzed the expression pattern of FAM210B in HCC using public gene expression databases and clinical tissue samples. Our results confirmed that FAM210B was dysregulated in both HCC cell lines and HCC paraffin section samples. FAM210B depletion significantly increased the capacity of cells to grow, migrate, and invade in vitro, while overexpression of FAM210B suppressed tumor growth in a xenograft tumor model. Furthermore, we identified FAM210B's involvement in MAPK signaling and p-AKT signaling pathways, both of which are known oncogenic signaling pathways. In summary, our study provides a rational basis for the further investigation of FAM210B as a valuable biological marker for diagnosing and predicting the prognosis of HCC patients.

Current Challenges and Future Direction in Surveillance for Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Patients with Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease

The burden for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) attributed to nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) continues to grow in parallel with rising global trends in obesity. The risk of HCC is elevated among patients with NAFLD-related cirrhosis to a level that justifies surveillance based on cost-effectiveness argument. The quality of current evidence for HCC surveillance in all patients with chronic liver disease is poor, and even lower in those with NAFLD. For a lack of more precise risk-stratification tools, current approaches to defining a target population in noncirrhotic NAFLD are limited to noninvasive tests for liver fibrosis, as a proxy for liver-related morbidity and mortality. Beyond etiology and severity of liver disease, traditional and metabolic risk factors, such as diabetes mellitus, older age, male gender and tobacco smoking, are not enough for HCC risk stratification for surveillance efficacy and effectiveness in NAFLD. There is an association between molecular and genetic factors and HCC risk in NAFLD, and risk models integrating both clinical and genetic factors will be key to personalizing HCC risk. In this review, we discuss concerns regarding defining a target population, surveillance test accuracy, surveillance underuse, and other cost-effective considerations for HCC surveillance in individuals with NAFLD.

Current therapeutic modalities and chemopreventive role of natural products in liver cancer: Progress and promise

Liver cancer is a severe concern for public health officials since the clinical cases are increasing each year, with an estimated 5-year survival rate of 30%–35% after diagnosis. Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) constitutes a significant subtype of liver cancer (approximate75%) and is considered primary liver cancer. Treatment for liver cancer mainly depends on the stage of its progression, where surgery including, hepatectomy and liver transplantation, and ablation and radiotherapy are the prime choice. For advanced liver cancer, various drugs and immunotherapy are used as first-line treatment, whereas second-line treatment includes chemotherapeutic drugs from natural and synthetic origins. Sorafenib and lenvatinib are first-line therapies, while regorafenib and ramucirumab are second-line therapy. Various metabolic and signaling pathways such as Notch, JAK/ STAT, Hippo, TGF-β, and Wnt have played a critical role during HCC progression. Dysbiosis has also been implicated in liver cancer. Drug-induced toxicity is a key obstacle in the treatment of liver cancer, necessitating the development of effective and safe medications, with natural compounds such as resveratrol, curcumin, diallyl sulfide, and others emerging as promising anticancer agents. This review highlights the current status of liver cancer research, signaling pathways, therapeutic targets, current treatment strategies and the chemopreventive role of various natural products in managing liver cancer.

The burden of hepatitis C virus in the world, China, India, and the United States from 1990 to 2019

Background and aim

Hepatitis C virus infection can lead to an enormous health burden worldwide. Investigating the changes in HCV-related burden between different countries could provide inferences for disease management. Hence, we aim to explore the temporal tendency of the disease burden associated with HCV infection in China, India, the United States, and the world.

Methods

Detailed data on the total burden of disease related to HCV infection were collected from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 database. Joinpoint regression models were used to simulate the optimal joinpoints of annual percent changes (APCs). Further analysis of the age composition of each index over time and the relationship between ASRs and the socio-demographic Index (SDI) were explored. Finally, three factors (population growth, population aging, and age-specific changes) were deconstructed for the changes in the number of incidences, deaths, and DALYs.

Results

It was estimated that 6.2 million new HCV infections, 0.54 million HCV-related deaths, and 15.3 million DALYs worldwide in 2019, with an increase of 25.4, 59.1, and 43.6%, respectively, from 1990, are mainly due to population growth and aging. China experienced a sharp drop in age-standardized rates in 2019, the United States showed an upward trend, and India exhibited a fluctuating tendency in the burden of disease. The incidence was increasing in all locations recently.

Conclusion

HCV remains a global health concern despite tremendous progress being made. The disease burden in China improved significantly, while the burden in the United States was deteriorating, with new infections increasing recently, suggesting more targeted interventions to be established to realize the 2030 elimination goals.

A Biomarker Panel Based upon AFP, Fucosylated Kininogen and PEG-Precipitated IgG Is Highly Accurate for the Early Detection Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Patients with Cirrhosis in Phase II and Phase III Biomarker Evaluation

We have previously identified alterations in glycosylation on serum proteins from patients with HCC and developed plate-based assays using lectins to detect the change in glycosylation. However, heterophilic antibodies, which increase with non-malignant liver disease, compromised these assays. To address this, we developed a method of polyethylene glycol (PEG) precipitation that removed the contaminating IgG and IgM but allowed for the lectin detection of the relevant glycoprotein. We found that this PEG-precipitated material itself could differentiate between cirrhosis and HCC. In the analysis of three training cohorts and one validation cohort, consisting of 571 patients, PEG-IgG had AUC values that ranged from 0.713 to 0.810. In the validation cohort, which contained samples from patients at a time of 1-6 months prior to HCC detection or 7+ months prior to detection, the AUC of this marker remained consistent (0.813 and 0.846, respectively). When this marker was incorporated into a biomarker algorithm that also consisted of AFP and fucosylated kininogen, the AUROC increased to 0.816-0.883 in the training cohort and was 0.909 in the external validation cohort. Biomarker performance was also examined though the analysis of partial ROC curves, at false positive values less than 10% (90-ROC), ≤20% (80-ROC) or ≤30% (70-ROC), which highlighted the algorithm's improvement over the individual markers at clinically relevant specificity values.

Development and Validation of a nomogram for forecasting survival of alcohol related hepatocellular carcinoma patients

BACKGROUND

With the increasing incidence and prevalence of alcoholic liver disease, alcohol-related hepatocellular carcinoma has become a serious public health problem worthy of attention in China. However, there is currently no prognostic prediction model for alcohol-related hepatocellular carcinoma.

METHODS

The retrospective analysis research of alcohol related hepatocellular carcinoma patients was conducted from January 2010 to December 2014. Independent prognostic factors of alcohol related hepatocellular carcinoma were identified by Lasso regression and multivariate COX proportional model analysis, and the nomogram model was constructed. The reliability and accuracy of the model were assessed using the concordance index(C-Index), receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and calibration curve. Evaluate the clinical benefit and application value of the model through clinical decision curve analysis (DCA). The prognosis was assessed by the Kaplan-Meier (KM) survival curve.

RESULTS

In sum, 383 patients were included in our study. Patients were stochastically assigned to training cohort (n=271) and validation cohort (n=112) according to 7:3 ratio. The predictors included in the nomogram were splenectomy, platelet count (PLT), creatinine (CRE), Prealbumin (PA), mean erythrocyte hemoglobin concentration (MCHC), red blood cell distribution width (RDW) and TNM. Our nomogram demonstrated excellent discriminatory power (C-index) and good calibration at 1-year, 3-year and 5- year overall survival (OS). Compared to TNM and Child-Pugh model, the nomogram had better discriminative ability and higher accuracy. DCA showed high clinical benefit and application value of the model.

CONCLUSION

The nomogram model we established can precisely forcasting the prognosis of alcohol related hepatocellular carcinoma patients, which would be helpful for the early warning of alcohol related hepatocellular carcinoma and predict prognosis in patients with alcoholic hepatocellular carcinoma.

Epidemiology of liver cirrhosis and associated complications: Current knowledge and future directions

Cirrhosis causes a heavy global burden. In this review, we summarized up-to-date epidemiological features of cirrhosis and its complications. Recent epidemiological studies reported an increase in the prevalence of cirrhosis in 2017 compared to in 1990 in both men and women, with 5.2 million cases of cirrhosis and chronic liver disease occurring in 2017. Cirrhosis caused 1.48 million deaths in 2019, an increase of 8.1% compared to 2017. Disability-adjusted life-years due to cirrhosis ranked 16th among all diseases and 7th in people aged 50-74 years in 2019. The global burden of hepatitis B virus and hepatitis C virus-associated cirrhosis is decreasing, while the burden of cirrhosis due to alcohol and nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is increasing rapidly. We described the current epidemiology of the major complications of cirrhosis, including ascites, variceal bleeding, hepatic encephalopathy, renal disorders, and infections. We also summarized the epidemiology of hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with cirrhosis. In the future, NAFLD-related cirrhosis will likely become more common due to the prevalence of metabolic diseases such as obesity and diabetes, and the prevalence of alcohol-induced cirrhosis is increasing. This altered epidemiology should be clinically noted, and relevant interventions should be undertaken.

Synergistic Associations of PNPLA3 I148M Variant, Alcohol Intake, and Obesity With Risk of Cirrhosis, Hepatocellular Carcinoma, and Mortality

IMPORTANCE

Alcohol drinking and obesity are associated with an increased risk of cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), but the risk is not uniform among people with these risk factors. Genetic variants, such as I148M in the patatin-like phospholipase domain-containing protein 3 (PNPLA3) gene, may play an important role in modulating cirrhosis and HCC risk.

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the joint associations of the PNPLA3 I148M variant, alcohol intake, and obesity with the risk of cirrhosis, HCC, and liver disease-related mortality.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This prospective cohort study analyzed 414 209 participants enrolled in the UK Biobank study from March 2006 to December 2010. Participants had no previous diagnosis of cirrhosis and HCC and were followed up through March 2021.

EXPOSURES

Self-reported alcohol intake (nonexcessive vs excessive), obesity (body mass index ≥30 [calculated as weight in kilograms divided by height in meters squared]), and PNPLA3 I148M variant status (noncarrier, heterozygous carrier, or homozygous carrier) from initial assessment.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

The primary outcomes were incident cirrhosis and HCC cases and liver disease-related death ascertained from inpatient hospitalization records and death registry. The risks were calculated by Cox proportional hazards regression models.

RESULTS

A total of 414 209 participants (mean [SD] age, 56.3 [8.09] years; 218 567 women [52.8%]; 389 452 White race and ethnicity [94.0%]) were included. Of these participants, 2398 participants (0.6%) developed cirrhosis (5.07 [95% CI, 4.87-5.28] cases per 100 person-years), 323 (0.1%) developed HCC (0.68 [95% CI, 0.61-0.76] cases per 100 person-years), and 878 (0.2%) died from a liver disease-related cause (1.76 [95% CI, 1.64-1.88] cases per 100 person-years) during a median follow-up of 10.9 years. Synergistic interactions between the PNPLA3 I148M variant, obesity, and alcohol intake were associated with the risk of cirrhosis, HCC, and liver disease-related mortality. The risk of cirrhosis increased supramultiplicatively (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 17.52; 95% CI, 12.84-23.90) in individuals with obesity, with excessive drinking, and who were homozygous carriers compared with those with no obesity, with nonexcessive drinking, and who were noncarriers. Supramultiplicative associations between the 3 factors and risks of HCC were found in individuals with 3 risk factors (aHR, 30.13; 95% CI, 16.51-54.98) and liver disease-related mortality (aHR, 21.82; 95% CI, 13.78-34.56). The PNPLA3 I148M variant status significantly differentiated the risk of cirrhosis, HCC, and liver disease-related mortality in persons with excessive drinking and obesity.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

This study found synergistic associations of the PNPLA3 I148M variant, excessive alcohol intake, and obesity with increased risk of cirrhosis, HCC, and liver disease-related death in the general population. The PNPLA3 I148M variant status may help refine the risk stratification for liver disease in persons with excessive drinking and obesity who may need early preventive measures.

Contribution of a genetic risk score to ethnic differences in fatty liver disease

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Susceptibility to fatty liver disease (FLD) varies among individuals and between racial/ethnic groups. Several genetic variants influence FLD risk, but whether these variants explain racial/ethnic differences in FLD prevalence is unclear. We examined the contribution of genetic risk factors to racial/ethnic-specific differences in FLD.

METHODS

A case-control study comparing FLD patients (n = 1194) and population-based controls (n = 3120) was performed. Patient characteristics, FLD risk variants (PNPLA3-rs738409 + rs6006460, TM6SF2-rs58542926, HSD17B13-rs80182459 + rs72613567, MBOAT7/TMC4-rs641738, and GCKR-rs1260326) and a multi-locus genetic risk score (GRS) were examined. The odds of FLD for individuals with different risk factor burdens were determined.

RESULTS

Hispanics and Whites were over-represented (56% vs. 38% and 36% vs. 29% respectively) and Blacks under-represented (5% vs. 23%) among FLD patients, compared to the population from which controls were selected (p < .001). Among cases and controls, Blacks had a lower and Hispanics a greater, net number of risk alleles than Whites (p < .001). GRS was associated with increased odds of FLD (OR_Q5vsQ1  = 8.72 [95% CI = 5.97-13.0], p = 9.8 × 10^-28 ), with the association being stronger in Hispanics (OR_Q5vsQ1  = 14.8 [8.3-27.1]) than Blacks (OR_Q5vsQ1  = 3.7 [1.5-11.5], P-interaction = 0.002). After accounting for GRS, the odds of FLD between Hispanics and Whites did not differ significantly (OR = 1.06 [0.87-1.28], p = .58), whereas Blacks retained much lower odds of FLD (OR = 0.21, [0.15-0.30], p < .001).

CONCLUSIONS

Blacks had a lower and Hispanics a greater FLD risk allele burden than Whites. These differences contributed to, but did not fully explain, racial/ethnic differences in FLD prevalence. Identification of additional factors protecting Blacks from FLD may provide new targets for prevention and treatment of FLD.

Integrated Analysis of Tumor Mutation Burden and Immune Infiltrates in Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Tumor mutation burdens (TMBs) act as an indicator of immunotherapeutic responsiveness in various tumors. However, the relationship between TMBs and immune cell infiltrates in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is still obscure. The present study aimed to explore the potential diagnostic markers of TMBs for HCC and analyze the role of immune cell infiltration in this pathology. We used OA datasets from The Cancer Genome Atlas database. First, the “maftools” package was used to screen the highest mutation frequency in all samples. R software was used to identify differentially expressed genes (DEGs) according to mutation frequency and perform functional correlation analysis. Then, the gene ontology (GO) enrichment analysis was performed with “clusterProfiler”, “enrichplot”, and “ggplot2” packages. Finally, the correlations between diagnostic markers and infiltrating immune cells were analyzed, and CIBERSORT was used to evaluate the infiltration of immune cells in HCC tissues. As a result, we identified a total of 359 DEGs in this study. These DEGs may affect HCC prognosis by regulating fatty acid metabolism, hypoxia, and the P53 pathway. The top 15 genes were selected as the hub genes through PPI network analysis. SRSF1, SNRPA1, and SRSF3 showed strong similarities in biological effects, NCBP2 was demonstrated as a diagnostic marker of HCC, and high NCBP2 expression was significantly correlated with poor over survival (OS) in HCC. In addition, NCBP2 expression was correlated with the infiltration of B cells (r = 0.364, p = 3.30 × 10⁻¹²), CD8⁺ T cells (r = 0.295, p = 2.71 × 10⁻⁸), CD4⁺ T cells, (r = 0.484, p = 1.37 × 10⁻²¹), macrophages (r = 0.551, p = 1.97 × 10⁻²⁸), neutrophils (r = 0.457, p = 3.26 × 10⁻¹⁹), and dendritic cells (r = 0.453, p = 1.97 × 10⁻¹⁸). Immune cell infiltration analysis revealed that the degree of central memory T-cell (Tcm) infiltration may be correlated with the HCC process. In conclusion, NCBP2 can be used as diagnostic markers of HCC, and immune cell infiltration plays an important role in the occurrence and progression of HCC.