Risk stratification for hepatocellular cancer among patients with cirrhosis using a hepatic fat polygenic risk score

Serum biomarker signature is predictive of the risk of hepatocellular cancer in patients with cirrhosis

BACKGROUND

Inflammatory and metabolic biomarkers have been associated with hepatocellular cancer (HCC) risk in phases I and II biomarker studies. We developed and internally validated a robust metabolic biomarker panel predictive of HCC in a longitudinal phase III study.

METHODS

We used data and banked serum from a prospective cohort of 2266 adult patients with cirrhosis who were followed until the development of HCC (n=126). We custom designed a FirePlex immunoassay to measure baseline serum levels of 39 biomarkers and established a set of biomarkers with the highest discriminatory ability for HCC. We performed bootstrapping to evaluate the predictive performance using C-index and time-dependent area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). We quantified the incremental predictive value of the biomarker panel when added to previously validated clinical models.

RESULTS

We identified a nine-biomarker panel (P9) with a C-index of 0.67 (95% CI 0.66 to 0.67), including insulin growth factor-1, interleukin-10, transforming growth factor β1, adipsin, fetuin-A, interleukin-1 β, macrophage stimulating protein α chain, serum amyloid A and TNF-α. Adding P9 to our clinical model with 10 factors including AFP improved AUROC at 1 and 2 years by 4.8% and 2.7%, respectively. Adding P9 to aMAP score improved AUROC at 1 and 2 years by 14.2% and 7.6%, respectively. Adding AFP L-3 or DCP did not change the predictive ability of the P9 model.

CONCLUSIONS

We identified a panel of nine serum biomarkers that is independently associated with developing HCC in cirrhosis and that improved the predictive ability of risk stratification models containing clinical factors.

Hepatocellular and extrahepatic cancer risk in people with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is the most common chronic liver disease worldwide. Much of the recognised health-care burden occurs in the minority of people with NAFLD who progress towards cirrhosis and require specialist follow-up, including risk stratification and hepatocellular carcinoma surveillance. NAFLD is projected to become the leading global cause of cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma, but the frequency of non-cirrhotic hepatocellular carcinoma provides a challenge to existing surveillance strategies. Deaths from extrahepatic cancers far exceed those from hepatocellular carcinoma in NAFLD. Unlike hepatocellular carcinoma, the increased extrahepatic cancer risk in NAFLD is not dependent on liver fibrosis stage. Given that almost 30% of the world's adult population has NAFLD, extrahepatic cancer could represent a substantial health and economic issue. In this Review, we discuss current knowledge and controversies regarding hepatocellular carcinoma risk stratification and surveillance practices in people with NAFLD. We also assess the associations of extrahepatic cancers with NAFLD and their relevance both in the clinic and the wider community.

Germline Genetic Associations for Hepatobiliary Cancers

Hepatobiliary cancers (HBCs) include hepatocellular carcinoma, cholangiocarcinoma, and gallbladder carcinoma, which originate from the liver, bile ducts, and gallbladder, respectively. They are responsible for a substantial burden of cancer-related deaths worldwide. Despite knowledge of risk factors and advancements in therapeutics and surgical interventions, the prognosis for most patients with HBC remains bleak. There is evidence from familial aggregation and case-control studies to suggest a familial risk component in HBC susceptibility. Recent progress in genomics research has led to the identification of germline variants including single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and pathogenic or likely pathogenic (P/LP) variants in cancer-associated genes associated with HBC risk. These findings emerged from genome-wide association studies and next-generation sequencing techniques such as whole-exome sequencing. Patients with other cancer types, including breast, colon, ovarian, prostate, and pancreatic cancer, are recommended by guidelines to undergo germline genetic testing, but similar recommendations are lagging in HBC. This prompts the question of whether multi-gene panel testing should be integrated into clinical guidelines for HBC management. Here, we review the hereditary genetics of HBC, explore studies investigating SNPs and P/LP variants in HBC patients, discuss the clinical implications and potential for personalized treatments and impact on patient's family members, and conclude that additional studies are needed to examine how genetic testing can be applied clinically.

Association of MBOAT7 rs641738 polymorphism with hepatocellular carcinoma susceptibility: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

The MBOAT7 rs641738 single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) has been proven to influence various liver diseases, but its association with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) susceptibility has been debated. To address this discrepancy, we conducted the current systematic review and meta-analysis.

AIM

To perform a systematic review and meta-analysis on association of MBOAT7 SNP and HCC susceptibility.

METHODS

We performed a systematic review in PubMed, Web of Science, Scopus, and EMBASE; applied specific inclusion and exclusion criteria; and extracted the data. Meta-analysis was conducted with the meta package in R. Sensitivity and subgroup analyses were also performed. This meta-analysis was registered in PROSPERO (CRD42023458046).

RESULTS

Eight studies were included in the systematic review, and 12 cohorts from 6 studies were included in the meta-analysis. Our meta-analysis revealed an association between the MBOAT7 SNP and HCC susceptibility in both the dominant [odds ratio (OR): 1.14, 95% confidence interval (95%CI): 1.02-1.26, P = 0.020] and recessive (OR: 1.21, 95%CI: 1.05-1.39, P = 0.008) models. Subgroup analysis revealed that stratification of the included patients by geographical origin showed a significant association in Asia (OR: 1.20, 95%CI: 1.03-1.39).

CONCLUSION

This meta-analysis underscores the contribution of the MBOAT7 rs641738 SNP to hepatocarcinogenesis, especially in Asian populations, which warrants further investigation.

Exploring Opportunities to Enhance the Screening and Surveillance of Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Non-Alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease (NAFLD) through Risk Stratification Algorithms Incorporating Ultrasound Elastography

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), with its progressive form, non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH), has emerged as a significant public health concern, affecting over 30% of the global population. Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), a complication associated with both cirrhotic and non-cirrhotic NAFLD, has shown a significant increase in incidence. A substantial proportion of NAFLD-related HCC occurs in non-cirrhotic livers, highlighting the need for improved risk stratification and surveillance strategies. This comprehensive review explores the potential role of liver ultrasound elastography as a risk assessment tool for HCC development in NAFLD and highlights the importance of effective screening tools for early, cost-effective detection and improved management of NAFLD-related HCC. The integration of non-invasive tools and algorithms into risk stratification strategies could have the capacity to enhance NAFLD-related HCC screening and surveillance effectiveness. Alongside exploring the potential advancement of non-invasive tools and algorithms for effectively stratifying HCC risk in NAFLD, we offer essential perspectives that could enable readers to improve the personalized assessment of NAFLD-related HCC risk through a more methodical screening approach.