Development of an individualized risk calculator for poor functioning in young people victimized during childhood: A longitudinal cohort study

Adverse childhood experiences screening in healthcare settings: A focus on pediatric primary care

BACKGROUND

Adverse Childhood Experiences (ACEs) screening in healthcare settings is emerging as one of the tangible responses to address the consistent evidence linking ACEs with health. Kaiser Permanente Southern California (KPSC) began ACEs screening in pediatric primary care in 2018 and has developed screening and referral processes based on continued feedback from stakeholders as well as data driven assessment.

OBJECTIVE

We give an overview of the state of ACEs screening in pediatric healthcare settings, challenges facing pediatric providers, and suggestions to address them. We then describe the development of our ACEs screening and referral process within KPSC as an example of how a large healthcare system has implemented and adapted ACEs screening from pilot testing, to phased expansion, to complete implementation.

PARTICIPANTS AND SETTING

Children aged 2-18 years old who were members of KPSC 2018-2023.

RESULTS

We present data on the tailored screening and referral workflows we have developed, rates of positive screens and referrals, and how the initiation of ACEs screening may affect the rates of visit to behavioral health as a treatment option. We also integrate qualitative data to demonstrate the perspective of parents, with the goal of understanding what might help or hinder receipt of behavioral health treatment after ACEs screening.

CONCLUSIONS

We close with future directions for ACEs screening in healthcare settings and considerations for pediatric healthcare providers who may want to begin ACEs screening or adapt their screening and referral processes.

A Systematic Review of Resilience Factors for Psychosocial Outcomes During the Transition to Adulthood Following Childhood Victimisation

Exposure to childhood victimisation (i.e. abuse, neglect, domestic violence or bullying) can detrimentally impact later psychosocial adjustment. However, this is not the case for all victimised children; some do well despite their experiences and are considered to be resilient. Understanding the factors associated with such resilience is important to inform interventions to support better psychosocial outcomes among victimised children. This review provides an overview of the extant research examining resilience factors for psychosocial outcomes during the transition to adulthood following exposure to childhood victimisation. Studies were identified through a systematic literature search of Embase, PsychINFO and Ovid MEDLINE databases. The 26 included studies spanned a range of psychosocial outcomes between ages 18-25, including education and work, housing and independent living, criminal behaviour, victimisation, and social and psychological adjustment. For each outcome, a variety of putative resilience factors had been investigated including those related to the individual, their family and the wider community within which they lived. However, because few studies had comparable resilience factors and psychosocial outcomes, it is difficult to draw conclusions about which factors are consistently associated with resilience to a particular psychosocial outcome. Additionally, this review revealed that the included studies were of variable methodological quality - many were limited by cross-sectional designs with retrospective self-reports of childhood victimisation, and convenience or unrepresentative samples. In this review, we also highlight gaps in knowledge about the co-occurring impact of multiple resilience factors in combination and the need for studies conducted in non-Western and low- and middle-income countries.

The Typology and Topography of Child Abuse and Neglect: The Experience of a Tertiary Children's Centre

Effective child protection systems and processes require reliable and accurate data. The aim of this study was to determine what data could be extracted from hospital records in a single site that reflected a child’s journey from admission with suspected abuse to the decisions regarding substantiation made by the multidisciplinary child protection team. A retrospective study of the case records of 452 children referred to a major UK children’s tertiary centre for suspected child maltreatment was undertaken. Child maltreatment was substantiated in 65% of referred cases, with the majority of referrals coming from children living in the most deprived neighbourhoods in the country. Domestic violence and abuse and the child’s previous involvement with statutory bodies were associated with case substantiation. Physical abuse predominated, with soft tissue injuries, including dog bites and burns, most frequent. Burns were related almost exclusively to supervisory neglect. There were also cases of medical neglect. Emotional abuse was associated with exposure to domestic violence and abuse and to self-harm. The strengths and limitations for single-centre data systems were explored, concluding with a recommendation to establish an agreed national and international minimum data set to protect children from maltreatment.

Poor Individual Risk Classification From Adverse Childhood Experiences Screening

INTRODUCTION

Adverse childhood experiences confer an increased risk for physical and mental health problems across the population, prompting calls for routine clinical screening based on reported adverse childhood experience exposure. However, recent longitudinal research has questioned whether adverse childhood experiences can accurately identify ill health at an individual level.

METHODS

Revisiting data collected for the Adverse Childhood Experience Study between 1995 and 1997, this study derived approximate area under the curve estimates to test the ability of the retrospectively reported adverse childhood experience score to discriminate between adults with and without a range of common health risk factors and disease conditions. Furthermore, the classification accuracy of a recommended clinical definition for high-risk exposure (≥4 versus 0-3 adverse childhood experiences) was evaluated on the basis of sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values, and positive likelihood ratios.

RESULTS

Across all health outcomes, the levels of discrimination for the continuous adverse childhood experience score ranged from very poor to fair (area under the curve=0.50-0.76). The binary classification of ≥4 versus 0-3 adverse childhood experiences yielded high specificity (true-negative detection) and negative predictive values (absence of ill health among low-risk adverse childhood experience groups). However, sensitivity (true-positive detection) and positive predictive values (presence of ill health among high-risk adverse childhood experience groups) were low, whereas positive likelihood ratios suggested only minimal-to-moderate increases in health risks among individuals reporting ≥4 adverse childhood experiences versus that among those reporting 0-3.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings suggest that screening based on the adverse childhood experience score does not accurately identify those individuals at high risk of health problems. This can lead to both allocation of unnecessary interventions and lack of provision of necessary support.

Prediction models for child and adolescent mental health: A systematic review of methodology and reporting in recent research

BACKGROUND

There has been a rapid growth in the publication of new prediction models relevant to child and adolescent mental health. However, before their implementation into clinical services, it is necessary to appraise the quality of their methods and reporting. We conducted a systematic review of new prediction models in child and adolescent mental health, and examined their development and validation.

METHOD

We searched five databases for studies developing or validating multivariable prediction models for individuals aged 18 years old or younger from 1 January 2018 to 18 February 2021. Quality of reporting was assessed using the Transparent Reporting of a multivariable prediction models for Individual Prognosis Or Diagnosis checklist, and quality of methodology using items based on expert guidance and the PROBAST tool.

RESULTS

We identified 100 eligible studies: 41 developing a new prediction model, 48 validating an existing model and 11 that included both development and validation. Most publications (k = 75) reported a model discrimination measure, while 26 investigations reported calibration. Of 52 new prediction models, six (12%) were for suicidal outcomes, 18 (35%) for future diagnosis, five (10%) for child maltreatment. Other outcomes included violence, crime, and functional outcomes. Eleven new models (21%) were developed for use in high-risk populations. Of development studies, around a third were sufficiently statistically powered (k = 16%, 31%), while this was lower for validation investigations (k = 12, 25%). In terms of performance, the discrimination (as measured by the C-statistic) for new models ranged from 0.57 for a tool predicting ADHD diagnosis in an external validation sample to 0.99 for a machine learning model predicting foster care permanency.

CONCLUSIONS

Although some tools have recently been developed for child and adolescent mental health for prognosis and child maltreatment, none can be currently recommended for clinical practice due to a combination of methodological limitations and poor model performance. New work needs to use ensure sufficient sample sizes, representative samples, and testing of model calibration.

Can the adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) checklist be utilized to predict emergency department visits among children and adolescents?

Background

Extensive literature has shown an association of Adverse Childhood Experiences (ACEs) with adverse health outcomes; however, its ability to predict events or stratify risks is less known. Individuals with mental illness and ACE exposure have been shown to visit emergency departments (ED) more often than those in the general population. This study thus examined the ability of the ACEs checklist to predict ED visits within the subsequent year among children and adolescents presenting to mental health clinics with pre-existing mental health issues.

Methods

The study analyzed linked data (n = 6100) from two databases provided by Alberta Health Services (AHS). The Regional Access and Intake System (RAIS 2016–2018) database provided data on the predictors (ACE items, age, sex, residence, mental health program type, and primary diagnosis) regarding children and adolescents (aged 0–17 years) accessing addiction and mental health services within Calgary Zone, and the National Ambulatory Care Reporting System (NACRS 2016–2019) database provided data on ED visits. A 25% random sample of the data was reserved for validation purposes. Two Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) logistic regression models, each employing a different method to tune the shrinkage parameter lambda (namely cross-validated and adaptive) and performing 10-fold cross-validation for a set of 100 lambdas in each model were examined.

Results

The adaptive LASSO model had a slightly better fit in the validation dataset than the cross-validated model; however, it still demonstrated poor discrimination (AUC 0.60, sensitivity 37.8%, PPV 49.6%) and poor calibration (over-triaged in low-risk and under-triaged in high-risk subgroups). The model’s poor performance was evident from an out-of-sample deviance ratio of − 0.044.

Conclusion

The ACEs checklist did not perform well in predicting ED visits among children and adolescents with existing mental health concerns. The diverse causes of ED visits may have hindered accurate predictions, requiring more advanced statistical procedures. Future studies exploring other machine learning approaches and including a more extensive set of childhood adversities and other important predictors may produce better predictions. Furthermore, despite highly significant associations being observed, ACEs may not be deterministic in predicting health-related events at the individual level, such as general ED use.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12874-021-01392-w.

Childhood maltreatment and poor functional outcomes at the transition to adulthood: a comparison of prospective informant- and retrospective self-reports of maltreatment

PURPOSE

Growing evidence suggests that prospective informant-reports and retrospective self-reports of childhood maltreatment may be differentially associated with adult psychopathology. However, it remains unknown how associations for these two maltreatment reporting types compare when considering functional outcomes. The present study compared associations between childhood maltreatment and functional outcomes at age 18 years using these two methods.

METHODS

We used data from the Environmental Risk (E-Risk) Longitudinal Twin Study, a nationally representative birth cohort of 2232 children born in England and Wales in 1994-1995. Maltreatment prior to age 12 years was assessed prospectively (during multiple home visits between birth and age of 12 years based on interviews with caregivers, researcher observations, and information from practitioners where child protection referrals were made) and retrospectively (at age 18 via self-report on the Childhood Trauma Questionnaire). Nine functional outcomes were measured at age 18, forming two variables capturing: (i) psychosocial and (ii) vocational disadvantage.

RESULTS

Among the 2054 participants with available data, childhood maltreatment was associated with poorer functional outcomes regardless of whether this was reported only prospectively, only retrospectively, or both. Stronger associations with psychosocial disadvantage arose in the context of retrospective recall by participants (OR = 8.25, 95% CI 4.93-13.82) than prospective reports by informants (OR = 2.03, 95% CI 1.36-3.04) of maltreatment. Conversely, associations with vocational disadvantage were comparable for both prospective informant-reports (OR = 2.19, 95% CI 1.42-3.38) and retrospective self-reports (OR = 1.93, 95% CI 1.33-2.81) of maltreatment.

CONCLUSION

Results highlight the importance of considering the maltreatment report type used when interpreting the functional consequences of childhood maltreatment.

Understanding practitioners' and young people's views of a risk calculator for future psychopathology and poor functioning in young people victimised during childhood

BACKGROUND

Although children who are exposed to victimisation (including abuse, neglect, domestic violence and bullying) have an increased risk of later psychopathology and functional impairment, not all go on to develop these outcomes. Risk calculators that generate individualised probabilities of a victimised child developing future psychopathology and poor functioning have the potential to help practitioners identify the most vulnerable children and efficiently target preventive interventions.

AIM

This study explored the views of young people and practitioners regarding the acceptability and feasibility of potentially using a risk calculator to predict victimised children's individual risk of poor outcomes.

METHODS

Young people (n = 6) with lived experience of childhood victimisation took part in two focus groups. Health and social care practitioners (n = 13) were interviewed individually. Focus groups and interviews were audio-recorded, transcribed and thematically analysed.

RESULTS

Ten themes were identified, organised according to the three main topics of discussion: (i) identifying risk (risk factors, current practice, accuracy, implementation, response); (ii) protective factors and prevention (individual, environment, preventative intervention); and (iii) communication of research (stakeholders, methods).

CONCLUSION

Risk calculators have the potential to enhance health and social care practice in the United Kingdom, but we highlight key factors that require consideration for successful implementation.

Effects Of Early Trauma and Recent Stressors on Depression, Anxiety, and Anger

BACKGROUND

Early life traumatic events and recent stressful events are known to have especially strong effects on emotional wellbeing. However, little is known about the interaction of early and recent stressors on emotions. We aimed to examine the interactive effects of early trauma and recent stressors on depression, anxiety, and anger.

METHODS

One hundred and seventy adults were recruited and asked to complete the Center for Epidemiological Studies Depression Scale (CES-D), the state anxiety subscale of the State-Trait Anxiety Inventory (STAI-S), and the state anger subscale of the State-Trait Anger Expression Inventory (STAXI-S). Early traumas and recent stressors were assessed during face-to-face interviews. Multiple regression analysis was performed to test whether early trauma, recent stressors, and the interaction of the two would predict CES-D, STAI-S, and STAXI-S scores.

RESULTS

In the multiple regression models, STAI-S scores were predicted only by recent stressors (R² = 0.063, p = 0.001). In contrast, CES-D and STAXI-S scores were predicted only by the synergistic interaction of early trauma with recent stressors (R² = 0.075, p < 0.001; R² = 0.039, p = 0.01, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

A synergistic interaction effect between early trauma and recent stressful events on current depression and anger was observed, indicating that the combined effects of early trauma and recent stressors are stronger than their individual effects. In contrast, anxiety was affected mainly by recent stressors. Our findings suggest that the form that emotional disturbance takes can vary depending on the timing of stressors.