Current review and next steps for artificial intelligence in multiple sclerosis risk research

Explainable time-to-progression predictions in multiple sclerosis

BACKGROUND

Prognostic machine learning research in multiple sclerosis has been mainly focusing on black-box models predicting whether a patients' disability will progress in a fixed number of years. However, as this is a binary yes/no question, it cannot take individual disease severity into account. Therefore, in this work we propose to model the time to disease progression instead. Additionally, we use explainable machine learning techniques to make the model outputs more interpretable.

METHODS

A preprocessed subset of 29,201 patients of the international data registry MSBase was used. Disability was assessed in terms of the Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS). We predict the time to significant and confirmed disability progression using random survival forests, a machine learning model for survival analysis. Performance is evaluated on a time-dependent area under the receiver operating characteristic and the precision-recall curves. Importantly, predictions are then explained using SHAP and Bellatrex, two explainability toolboxes, and lead to both global (population-wide) as well as local (patient visit-specific) insights.

RESULTS

On the task of predicting progression in 2 years, the random survival forest achieves state-of-the-art performance, comparable to previous work employing a random forest. However, here the random survival forest has the added advantage of being able to predict progression over a longer time horizon, with AUROC >60% for the first 10 years after baseline. Explainability techniques further validated the model by extracting clinically valid insights from the predictions made by the model. For example, a clear decline in the per-visit probability of progression is observed in more recent years since 2012, likely reflecting globally increasing use of more effective MS therapies.

CONCLUSION

The binary classification models found in the literature can be extended to a time-to-event setting without loss of performance, thus allowing a more comprehensive prediction of patient prognosis. Furthermore, explainability techniques proved to be key to reach a better understanding of the model and increase validation of its behaviour.

Deep Learning techniques to detect and analysis of multiple sclerosis through MRI: A systematic literature review

Deep learning (DL) techniques represent a rapidly advancing field within artificial intelligence, gaining significant prominence in the detection and analysis of various medical conditions through the analysis of medical data. This study presents a systematic literature review (SLR) focused on deep learning methods for the detection and analysis of multiple sclerosis (MS) using magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). The initial search identified 401 articles, which were rigorously screened, a selection of 82 highly relevant studies. These selected studies primarily concentrate on key areas such as multiple sclerosis, deep learning, convolutional neural networks (CNN), lesion segmentation, and classification, reflecting their alignment with the current state of the art. This review comprehensively examines diverse deep-learning approaches for MS detection and analysis, offering a valuable resource for researchers. Additionally, it presents key insights by summarizing these DL techniques for MS detection and analysis using MRI in a structured tabular format.

Machine learning for refining interpretation of magnetic resonance imaging scans in the management of multiple sclerosis: a narrative review

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is an autoimmune disease of the brain and spinal cord with both inflammatory and neurodegenerative features. Although advances in imaging techniques, particularly magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), have improved the process of diagnosis, its cause is unknown, a cure remains elusive and the evidence base to guide treatment is lacking. Computational techniques like machine learning (ML) have started to be used to understand MS. Published MS MRI-based computational studies can be divided into five categories: automated diagnosis; differentiation between lesion types and/or MS stages; differential diagnosis; monitoring and predicting disease progression; and synthetic MRI dataset generation. Collectively, these approaches show promise in assisting with MS diagnosis, monitoring of disease activity and prediction of future progression, all potentially contributing to disease management. Analysis quality using ML is highly dependent on the dataset size and variability used for training. Wider public access would mean larger datasets for experimentation, resulting in higher-quality analysis, permitting for more conclusive research. This narrative review provides an outline of the fundamentals of MS pathology and pathogenesis, diagnostic techniques and data types in computational analysis, as well as collating literature pertaining to the application of computational techniques to MRI towards developing a better understanding of MS.

Enhancing classification of active and non-active lesions in multiple sclerosis: machine learning models and feature selection techniques

INTRODUCTION

Gadolinium-based T1-weighted MRI sequence is the gold standard for the detection of active multiple sclerosis (MS) lesions. The performance of machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL) models in the classification of active and non-active MS lesions from the T2-weighted MRI images has been investigated in this study.

METHODS

107 Features of 75 active and 100 non-active MS lesions were extracted by using SegmentEditor and Radiomics modules of 3D slicer software. Sixteen ML and one sequential DL models were created using the 5-fold cross-validation method and each model with its special optimized parameters trained using the training-validation datasets. Models' performances in test data set were evaluated by metric parameters of accuracy, precision, sensitivity, specificity, AUC, and F1 score.

RESULTS

The sequential DL model achieved the highest AUC of 95.60% on the test dataset, demonstrating its superior ability to distinguish between active and non-active plaques. Among traditional ML models, the Hybrid Gradient Boosting Classifier (HGBC) demonstrated a commendable test AUC of 86.75%, while the Gradient Boosting Classifier (GBC) excelled in cross-validation with an AUC of 87.92%.

CONCLUSION

The performance of sixteen ML and one sequential DL models in the classification of active and non-active MS lesions was evaluated. The results of the study highlight the effectiveness of sequential DL approach and ensemble methods in achieving robust predictive performance, underscoring their potential applications in classifying MS plaques.

Machine-learning-based prediction of disability progression in multiple sclerosis: An observational, international, multi-center study

BACKGROUND

Disability progression is a key milestone in the disease evolution of people with multiple sclerosis (PwMS). Prediction models of the probability of disability progression have not yet reached the level of trust needed to be adopted in the clinic. A common benchmark to assess model development in multiple sclerosis is also currently lacking.

METHODS

Data of adult PwMS with a follow-up of at least three years from 146 MS centers, spread over 40 countries and collected by the MSBase consortium was used. With basic inclusion criteria for quality requirements, it represents a total of 15, 240 PwMS. External validation was performed and repeated five times to assess the significance of the results. Transparent Reporting for Individual Prognosis Or Diagnosis (TRIPOD) guidelines were followed. Confirmed disability progression after two years was predicted, with a confirmation window of six months. Only routinely collected variables were used such as the expanded disability status scale, treatment, relapse information, and MS course. To learn the probability of disability progression, state-of-the-art machine learning models were investigated. The discrimination performance of the models is evaluated with the area under the receiver operator curve (ROC-AUC) and under the precision recall curve (AUC-PR), and their calibration via the Brier score and the expected calibration error. All our preprocessing and model code are available at https://gitlab.com/edebrouwer/ms_benchmark, making this task an ideal benchmark for predicting disability progression in MS.

FINDINGS

Machine learning models achieved a ROC-AUC of 0⋅71 ± 0⋅01, an AUC-PR of 0⋅26 ± 0⋅02, a Brier score of 0⋅1 ± 0⋅01 and an expected calibration error of 0⋅07 ± 0⋅04. The history of disability progression was identified as being more predictive for future disability progression than the treatment or relapses history.

CONCLUSIONS

Good discrimination and calibration performance on an external validation set is achieved, using only routinely collected variables. This suggests machine-learning models can reliably inform clinicians about the future occurrence of progression and are mature for a clinical impact study.

Modeling and simulation for prediction of multiple sclerosis progression

In light of extensive work that has created a wide range of techniques for predicting the course of multiple sclerosis (MS) disease, this paper attempts to provide an overview of these approaches and put forth an alternative way to predict the disease progression. For this purpose, the existing methods for estimating and predicting the course of the disease have been categorized into clinical, radiological, biological, and computational or artificial intelligence-based markers. Weighing the weaknesses and strengths of these prognostic groups is a profound method that is yet in need and works directly at the level of diseased connectivity. Therefore, we propose using the computational models in combination with established connectomes as a predictive tool for MS disease trajectories. The fundamental conduction-based Hodgkin-Huxley model emerged as promising from examining these studies. The advantage of the Hodgkin-Huxley model is that certain properties of connectomes, such as neuronal connection weights, spatial distances, and adjustments of signal transmission rates, can be taken into account. It is precisely these properties that are particularly altered in MS and that have strong implications for processing, transmission, and interactions of neuronal signaling patterns. The Hodgkin-Huxley (HH) equations as a point-neuron model are used for signal propagation inside a small network. The objective is to change the conduction parameter of the neuron model, replicate the changes in myelin properties in MS and observe the dynamics of the signal propagation across the network. The model is initially validated for different lengths, conduction values, and connection weights through three nodal connections. Later, these individual factors are incorporated into a small network and simulated to mimic the condition of MS. The signal propagation pattern is observed after inducing changes in conduction parameters at certain nodes in the network and compared against a control model pattern obtained before the changes are applied to the network. The signal propagation pattern varies as expected by adapting to the input conditions. Similarly, when the model is applied to a connectome, the pattern changes could give an insight into disease progression. This approach has opened up a new path to explore the progression of the disease in MS. The work is in its preliminary state, but with a future vision to apply this method in a connectome, providing a better clinical tool.

Artificial Intelligence and Multiple Sclerosis: Up-to-Date Review

Multiple sclerosis (MS) remains a challenging neurological disorder for the clinician in terms of diagnosis and management. The growing integration of AI-based algorithms in healthcare offers a golden opportunity for clinicians and patients with MS. AI models are based on statistical analyses of large quantities of data from patients including "demographics, genetics, clinical and radiological presentation." These approaches are promising in the quest for greater diagnostic accuracy, tailored management plans, and better prognostication of disease. The use of AI in multiple sclerosis represents a paradigm shift in disease management. With ongoing advancements in AI technologies and the increasing availability of large-scale datasets, the potential for further innovation is immense. As AI continues to evolve, its integration into clinical practice will play a vital role in improving diagnostics, optimizing treatment strategies, and enhancing patient outcomes for MS. This review is about conducting a literature review to identify relevant studies on AI applications in MS. Only peer-reviewed studies published in the last four years have been selected. Data related to AI techniques, advancements, and implications are extracted. Through data analysis, key themes and tendencies are identified. The review presents a cohesive synthesis of the current state of AI and MS, highlighting potential implications and new advancements.

Assessing the utility of magnetic resonance imaging-based "SuStaIn" disease subtyping for precision medicine in relapsing-remitting and secondary progressive multiple sclerosis

BACKGROUND

Patient stratification and individualized treatment decisions based on multiple sclerosis (MS) clinical phenotypes are arbitrary. Subtype and Staging Inference (SuStaIn), a published machine learning algorithm, was developed to identify data-driven disease subtypes with distinct temporal progression patterns using brain magnetic resonance imaging; its clinical utility has not been assessed. The objective of this study was to explore the prognostic capability of SuStaIn subtyping and whether it is a useful personalized predictor of treatment effects of natalizumab and dimethyl fumarate.

METHODS

Subtypes were available from the trained SuStaIn model for 3 phase 3 clinical trials in relapsing-remitting and secondary progressive MS. Regression models were used to determine whether baseline SuStaIn subtypes could predict on-study clinical and radiological disease activity and progression. Differences in treatment responses relative to placebo between subtypes were determined using interaction terms between treatment and subtype.

RESULTS

Natalizumab and dimethyl fumarate reduced inflammatory disease activity in all SuStaIn subtypes (all p < 0.001). SuStaIn MS subtyping alone did not discriminate responder heterogeneity based on new lesion formation and disease progression (p > 0.05 across subtypes).

CONCLUSION

SuStaIn subtypes correlated with disease severity and functional impairment at baseline but were not predictive of disability progression and could not discriminate treatment response heterogeneity.

Decision trees to evaluate the risk of developing multiple sclerosis

Introduction

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a persistent neurological condition impacting the central nervous system (CNS). The precise cause of multiple sclerosis is still uncertain; however, it is thought to arise from a blend of genetic and environmental factors. MS diagnosis includes assessing medical history, conducting neurological exams, performing magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scans, and analyzing cerebrospinal fluid. While there is currently no cure for MS, numerous treatments exist to address symptoms, decelerate disease progression, and enhance the quality of life for individuals with MS.

Methods

This paper introduces a novel machine learning (ML) algorithm utilizing decision trees to address a key objective: creating a predictive tool for assessing the likelihood of MS development. It achieves this by combining prevalent demographic risk factors, specifically gender, with crucial immunogenetic risk markers, such as the alleles responsible for human leukocyte antigen (HLA) class I molecules and the killer immunoglobulin-like receptors (KIR) genes responsible for natural killer lymphocyte receptors.

Results

The study included 619 healthy controls and 299 patients affected by MS, all of whom originated from Sardinia. The gender feature has been disregarded due to its substantial bias in influencing the classification outcomes. By solely considering immunogenetic risk markers, the algorithm demonstrates an ability to accurately identify 73.24% of MS patients and 66.07% of individuals without the disease.

Discussion

Given its notable performance, this system has the potential to support clinicians in monitoring the relatives of MS patients and identifying individuals who are at an increased risk of developing the disease.

Role of artificial intelligence in MS clinical practice

Machine learning (ML) and its subset, deep learning (DL), are branches of artificial intelligence (AI) showing promising findings in the medical field, especially when applied to imaging data. Given the substantial role of MRI in the diagnosis and management of patients with multiple sclerosis (MS), this disease is an ideal candidate for the application of AI techniques. In this narrative review, we are going to discuss the potential applications of AI for MS clinical practice, together with their limitations. Among their several advantages, ML algorithms are able to automate repetitive tasks, to analyze more data in less time and to achieve higher accuracy and reproducibility than the human counterpart. To date, these algorithms have been applied to MS diagnosis, prognosis, disease and treatment monitoring. Other fields of application have been improvement of MRI protocols as well as automated lesion and tissue segmentation. However, several challenges remain, including a better understanding of the information selected by AI algorithms, appropriate multicenter and longitudinal validations of results and practical aspects regarding hardware and software integration. Finally, one cannot overemphasize the paramount importance of human supervision, in order to optimize the use and take full advantage of the potential of AI approaches.

Applications of deep learning techniques for automated multiple sclerosis detection using magnetic resonance imaging: A review

Multiple Sclerosis (MS) is a type of brain disease which causes visual, sensory, and motor problems for people with a detrimental effect on the functioning of the nervous system. In order to diagnose MS, multiple screening methods have been proposed so far; among them, magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) has received considerable attention among physicians. MRI modalities provide physicians with fundamental information about the structure and function of the brain, which is crucial for the rapid diagnosis of MS lesions. Diagnosing MS using MRI is time-consuming, tedious, and prone to manual errors. Research on the implementation of computer aided diagnosis system (CADS) based on artificial intelligence (AI) to diagnose MS involves conventional machine learning and deep learning (DL) methods. In conventional machine learning, feature extraction, feature selection, and classification steps are carried out by using trial and error; on the contrary, these steps in DL are based on deep layers whose values are automatically learn. In this paper, a complete review of automated MS diagnosis methods performed using DL techniques with MRI neuroimaging modalities is provided. Initially, the steps involved in various CADS proposed using MRI modalities and DL techniques for MS diagnosis are investigated. The important preprocessing techniques employed in various works are analyzed. Most of the published papers on MS diagnosis using MRI modalities and DL are presented. The most significant challenges facing and future direction of automated diagnosis of MS using MRI modalities and DL techniques are also provided.

Recent trends in artificial intelligence-driven identification and development of anti-neurodegenerative therapeutic agents

Neurological disorders affect various aspects of life. Finding drugs for the central nervous system is a very challenging and complex task due to the involvement of the blood-brain barrier, P-glycoprotein, and the drug's high attrition rates. The availability of big data present in online databases and resources has enabled the emergence of artificial intelligence techniques including machine learning to analyze, process the data, and predict the unknown data with high efficiency. The use of these modern techniques has revolutionized the whole drug development paradigm, with an unprecedented acceleration in the central nervous system drug discovery programs. Also, the new deep learning architectures proposed in many recent works have given a better understanding of how artificial intelligence can tackle big complex problems that arose due to central nervous system disorders. Therefore, the present review provides comprehensive and up-to-date information on machine learning/artificial intelligence-triggered effort in the brain care domain. In addition, a brief overview is presented on machine learning algorithms and their uses in structure-based drug design, ligand-based drug design, ADMET prediction, de novo drug design, and drug repurposing. Lastly, we conclude by discussing the major challenges and limitations posed and how they can be tackled in the future by using these modern machine learning/artificial intelligence approaches.