Will the COVID-19 pandemic affect HCV disease burden?

Fibrosis-4 index stratifies risks of hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with chronic hepatitis C

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Risk stratification for patients with a higher risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is crucial. We aimed to investigate the role of the Fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) index in predicting chronic hepatitis C (CHC)-related HCC.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study consecutively included treatment-naive CHC patients receiving longitudinal follow-up at the National Taiwan University Hospital from 1986 to 2014. The clinical data were collected and traced for HCC development. Multivariable Cox proportional hazard regression analysis was used to investigate the predictors for HCC.

RESULTS

A total of 1285 patients in the ERADICATE-C cohort were included. The median age was 54, 56% were females, and 933 had HCV viremia. There were 33%, 38%, and 29% of patients having FIB-4 index <1.45, 1.45-3.25, and ≥3.25, respectively. After a median of 9-year follow-up, 186 patients developed HCC. Multivariable analysis revealed that older age, AFP≥20 ng/mL, cirrhosis, and a higher FIB-4 index were independent predictors for HCC. Compared with patients with FIB-4 index <1.45, those with FIB-4 1.45-3.25 had a 5.51-fold risk (95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.65-11.46), and those with FIB-4 ≥ 3.25 had 7.45-fold risk (95% CI: 3.46-16.05) of HCC. In CHC patients without viremia, FIB-4 index 1.45-3.25 and FIB-4 ≥ 3.25 increased 6.78-fold and 16.77-fold risk of HCC, respectively, compared with those with FIB-4 < 1.45.

CONCLUSION

The baseline FIB-4 index can stratify the risks of HCC in untreated CHC patients, even those without viremia. The FIB-4 index should thus be included in the management of CHC.

Forecasting the long-term impact of COVID-19 on hepatitis C elimination plans in Italy: A mathematical modelling approach

BACKGROUND

Italy has a high HCV prevalence, and despite the approval of a dedicated fund for 'Experimental screening' for 2 years, screening has not been fully implemented. We aimed to evaluate the long-term impact of the persisting delay in HCV elimination after the Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic in Italy.

METHODS

We used a mathematical, probabilistic modelling approach evaluating three hypothetical 'Inefficient', 'Efficient experimental' and 'WHO Target' screening scenarios differing by treatment rates over time. A Markov chain for liver disease progression evaluated the number of active infections, decompensated cirrhosis (DC), hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and HCV liver-related deaths up to the years 2030 and 2050.

RESULTS

The 'WHO Target' scenario estimated 3900 patients with DC and 600 with HCC versus 4400 and 600 cases, respectively, similar for both 'Inefficient' and 'Efficient experimental' screening up to 2030. A sharp (10-fold) decrease in DC and HCC was estimated by the 'WHO Target' scenario compared with the other two scenarios in 2050; the forecasted number of DC was 420 cases versus 4200 and 3800 and of HCC <10 versus 600 and 400 HCC cases by 'WHO Target,' 'Inefficient' and 'Efficient experimental' scenarios, respectively. A significant decrease of the cumulative estimated number of liver-related deaths was observed up to 2050 by the 'WHO Target' scenario (52000) versus 'Inefficient' or 'Efficient experimental' scenarios (79 000 and 74 000 liver-related deaths, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

Our estimates highlight the need to extensively and efficiently address HCV screening and cure of HCV infection in order to avoid the forecasted long-term HCV adverse outcomes in Italy.

The effect of hepatitis C-associated premature deaths on labour productivity losses in Spain: a ten-year analysis

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection causes a substantial economic burden, not only in terms of healthcare costs, but also in labour productivity losses. The main objective of this study is to provide objective and comparable information about the trend in labour productivity losses caused by premature HCV-associated deaths in Spain in recent years (2009-2018). We used nationwide data from several official sources to create a simulation model based on the human capital approach and to estimate the flows in labour productivity losses due to deaths identified in the period considered. Based on a pessimistic scenario, the annual number of deaths due to HCV infections decreased by 19.7% between 2009 and 2018. The years of potential labour productive life lost (YPLPLL) decreased by 38.1%. That reduction led to a decrease in annual labour productivity losses from €236 million in 2009 to €156 million in 2018 (-33.8%). The aggregate HCV-related labour productivity losses between 2009 and 2018 ranged from €1742 million (optimistic scenario) to €1949 million (pessimistic scenario), with an intermediate estimation of €1846 million (moderately optimistic scenario). These results show a substantial reduction in annual deaths, working-age deaths, YPLPLL, and labour productivity losses associated with HCV infection over this period.

Outcomes of Interferon-free Treatment of Hepatitis C Virus Infection Seven Years after Approval and Problems with Drop out during and after Treatment: A Retrospective, Single-center Study

Objective This retrospective, single-center study assessed the effects of interferon (IFN)-free treatment of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection, which has been approved for seven years; calculated the incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after achieving a sustained virologic response (SVR); and elucidated problems with follow-up for surveillance of post-SVR HCC, particularly the impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Methods We summarized the SVR achievement rate of 286 HCV-infected patients who received 301 IFN-free treatments and analyzed the cumulative incidence of initial HCC and the cumulative continuation rate of follow-up after SVR in the 253 patients who achieved SVR and did not have a history of HCC. Results Among 286 patients who received IFN-free treatments, 14 dropped out, and the 272 remaining patients achieved an SVR after receiving up to third-line treatment. Post-SVR HCC occurred in 18 (7.1%) of the 253 patients without a history of HCC, with a cumulative incidence at 3 and 5 years after SVR of 6.6% and 10.0%, respectively; the incidence of cirrhosis at those time points was 18.2% and 24.6%, respectively.Of the 253 patients analyzed, 58 (22.9%) discontinued follow-up after SVR. Patients who had no experience with IFN-based therapy tended to drop out after SVR. Notably, the number of dropouts per month has increased since the start of the pandemic. Conclusion Currently, IFN-free treatment is showing great efficacy. However, the incidence of HCC after SVR should continue to be monitored. In this study, the COVID-19 pandemic did not affect treatment outcomes, but it may affect surveillance for post-SVR HCC.

Prevalence of Viral Hepatitis in Unselected, Consecutively Enrolled Patients Hospitalised for SARS-CoV-2

Diagnosing people living with chronic viral hepatitis is challenging due to the absence of symptoms as long as liver decompensated cirrhosis come out. The aim of this retrospective study was to evaluate the prevalence of HBV and/or HCV infections in a non-selected population, hospitalised for SARS-CoV-2 infection in a tertiary care hospital in Northern Italy. During the study period 1,429 patients were admitted to hospital for SARS-CoV-2 infection, serologic tests for HBV and/or HCV were available for 382 (27%) patients and 3 were excluded due to their previous known serologic status. Among 379 patients, 235 (62%) were male, median age was 70 years (range 21–103), 360 (95%) were Caucasian. Among them, 372/379 (98%) were screened for HBsAg, 320/379 (84%) for HBcAb. HBsAg was positive in 2/372 (0.5%, 95% CI 0.0006–0.02) patients (only in one HBV-DNA was performed that was negative), while HBcAb was found positive in 55/320 (17%, 95% CI 0.13–0.22). Among 370/379 (98%) patients screened for HCV, 11/370 (3%, 95% CI 0.02–0.05) had positive HCV-Ab. Five out of 11 (45%) were tested for HCV-RNA that resulted positive in two patients (0.5%, 95% CI 0.0006–0.02). Considering this data, even though the screening was performed in only 27% of study population, a tailored screening in people with known risk factors for hepatitis might be preferable to universal screening in low prevalence areas. Also a prompt diagnostic workout should begin in case of clinical or laboratory suspicion of hepatitis and in those starting immunosuppressive treatments.

Milestones to reach Hepatitis C Virus (HCV) elimination in Italy: From free-of-charge screening to regional roadmaps for an HCV-free nation

Although Italy has been on track for Hepatitis C Virus (HCV) elimination since 2019, it fell off track due to the decrease in the number of treated patients. HCV elimination in Italy will be possible if immediate action is taken. A health policy was implemented beginning in 2021, consisting of screening among key populations and birth cohorts (1969-1989), estimated to have a high prevalence of undiagnosed individuals. The active screening requires regional governance that manages the processes' complexity integrating a well-organized network between territory assistance and hospital to achieve an effective HCV care cascade. This document aims to support the regional decision-making process by defining paths for screening and linkage-to-care. Implementing active screening strategies beyond a risk-based approach is required as a General Practitioners' task. Simplified paths must be drawn for the key populations screening. The infrastructure built for COVID-19 vaccination could be used also for HCV screening. According to a multidisciplinary care delivery, screening should be supplemented with rapid linkage-to-care and treatment of newly diagnosed patients. The realization of the proactive screening during the first two years is vital because it will define the tracks for the whole HCV cost-effective screening of 1948-1988 birth cohorts in Italy.

A mathematical model by route of transmission and fibrosis progression to estimate undiagnosed individuals with HCV in different Italian regions

BACKGROUND

Although an increase in hepatitis C virus (HCV) prevalence from Northern to Southern Italy has been reported, the burden of asymptomatic individuals in different Italian regions is currently unknown.

METHODS

A probabilistic approach, including a Markov chain for liver disease progression, was applied to estimate current HCV viraemic burden. The model defined prevalence by geographic area using an estimated annual historical HCV incidence by age, treatment rate, and migration rate from the Italian National database. Viraemic infection by age group was estimated for each region by main HCV transmission routes of individuals for stage F0-F3 (i.e. patients without liver cirrhosis and thus potentially asymptomatic) and F4 (patients with liver cirrhosis, thus potentially symptomatic).

RESULTS

By January 2020, it was estimated that there were 409,184 Italian individuals with HCV (prevalence of 0.68%; 95% CI: 0.54-0.82%), of which 300,171 (0.50%; 95% CI: 0.4-0.6%) were stage F0-F3. Considering all individuals with HCV in stage F0-F3, the geographical distributions (expressed as the proportion of HCV infected individuals by macroarea within the overall estimated number of F0-F3 individuals and prevalence values, expressed as the percentage of individuals with HCV versus the overall number of individuals for each macroarea) were as follows: North 42.1% (0.45%; 95% CI: 0.36-0.55%), Central 24.1% (0.61%; 95% CI: 0.48-0.74%), South 23.2% (0.50%; 95% CI: 0.4-0.61%), and the Isles 10.6% (0.49%; 95% CI: 0.39-0.59%). The population of people who inject drugs accounted for 50.4% of all individuals infected (F0-F3). Undiagnosed individuals (F0-F3) were ~ 15 years younger (⁓ 50 years) compared with patients with stage F4 (⁓ 65 years), with similar age distributions across macroareas. In contrast to what has been reported on HCV epidemiology in Italy, an increasing trend in the proportion of potentially undiagnosed individuals with HCV (absolute number within the F0-F3) from South (23.2%) to North (42.1%) emerged, independent of similar regional prevalence values.

CONCLUSION

This targeted approach, which addresses the specific profile of undiagnosed individuals, is helpful in planning effective elimination strategies by region in Italy and could be a useful methodology for other countries in implementing their elimination plans.

Repercussões da pandemia por Covid-19 nos serviços de referência para atenção às hepatites virais

Resumo Estudo com objetivo de analisar, segundo a perspectiva de gestores e profissionais de saúde, as repercussões da pandemia por Covid-19 para os serviços de referência às hepatites virais no estado de Mato Grosso. Trata-se de pesquisa avaliativa, em abordagem descritiva de dados qualitativos, coletados por meio de entrevistas semiestruturada. A análise temática resultou em duas categorias: “Pandemia de Covid-19 e fragilidades na atenção às hepatites virais” e “Desafios da gestão na atenção às hepatites virais agravados pela pandemia”. Constatou-se dificuldades de organização e implementação de estratégias para favorecer o cuidado, durante a pandemia, por ter redução no serviço administrativo na gestão estadual, ausência de diretrizes para os serviços e limitação no quantitativo de profissional, além da necessidade de remanejamento para atendimento a Covid-19. Os desafios postos pela gestão incluem a prioridade de ações estratégicas para aumentar a testagem e oportunizar acesso aos serviços de referência. Entretanto, a rotatividade de gestores e quantitativo de profissionais repercute no enfrentamento às hepatites. A organização da rede de atenção precisa avançar na governança das ações e serviços e em rearranjos organizacionais capazes de permitir respostas mais rápidas nos fluxos da atenção.

Recent challenges facing patients with preexisting chronic liver disease in the era of the COVID-19 pandemic

COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in a growing number of beds in common hospital wards and intensive care units being occupied by COVID-19 patients and the majority of medical and nursing staff being dedicated to their care. The present review summarizes the impact of COVID-19 on patients with underlying chronic liver diseases (CLD). Deferrals of all non-urgent activities in healthcare facilities, including a decrease in liver-clinic visits for patients with CLD, inadequate hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) surveillance, and postponement of liver transplant activities are the most important consequences. Delays in viral hepatitis elimination programs were also reported, leading to future development of advanced CLD and HCC. Patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) and C without cirrhosis are not at risk for a more severe COVID-19 infection course. However, CHB status must be known in patients who are going to receive immunosuppression for preventing disease flare. In addition, checking for drug-drug interactions and potential hepatotoxicity reactions from agents administered to treat both SARS-CoV-2 and CLD are required. Patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease appeared to be at a high risk for severe COVID-19, even after adjustment for comorbidities. Patients with cirrhosis may develop decompensation, acute-on-chronic liver failure, or severe COVID-19. The mortality rate is worse in patients with high model for end-stage liver disease score, regardless of the etiology of cirrhosis.

Global Utilization Trends of Direct Acting Antivirals (DAAs) during the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Time Series Analysis

The 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has placed a significant strain on hepatitis programs and interventions (screening, diagnosis, and treatment) at a critical moment in the context of hepatitis C virus (HCV) elimination. We sought to quantify changes in Direct Acting Antiviral (DAA) utilization among different countries during the pandemic. We conducted a cross-sectional time series analysis between 1 September 2018 and 31 August 2020, using the IQVIA MIDAS database, which contains DAA purchase data for 54 countries. We examined the percent change in DAA units dispensed (e.g., pills and capsules) from March to August 2019 to the same period of time in 2020 across the 54 countries. Interrupted time-series analysis was used to examine the impact of COVID-19 on monthly rates of DAA utilization across each of the major developed economies (G7 nations). Overall, 46 of 54 (85%) jurisdictions experienced a decline in DAA utilization during the pandemic, with an average of -43% (range: -1% in Finland to -93% in Brazil). All high HCV prevalence (HCV prevalence > 2%) countries in the database experienced a decline in utilization, average -49% (range: -17% in Kazakhstan to -90% in Egypt). Across the G7 nations, we also observed a decreased trend in DAA utilization during the early months of the pandemic, with significant declines (p < 0.01) for Canada, Germany, the United Kingdom, and the United States of America. The global response to COVID-19 led to a large decrease in DAA utilization globally. Deliberate efforts to counteract the impact of COVID-19 on treatment delivery are needed to support the goal of HCV elimination.

The impact of direct acting antivirals on hepatitis C virus disease burden and associated costs in four european countries

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

We assessed the clinical and economic impact of direct-acting antiviral (DAA) therapy for hepatitis C virus (HCV) in England, Italy, Romania and Spain.

METHODS

An HCV progression Markov model was developed considering DAA eligibility and population data during the years 2015-2019. The period of time to recover the investment in DAAs was calculated as the cost saved by avoiding estimated clinical events for 1000 standardized treated patients. A delayed treatment scenario because of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) was also developed.

RESULTS

The estimated number of avoided hepatocellular carcinoma, decompensated cirrhosis and liver transplantations over a 20-year time horizon was: 1,057 in England; 1,221 in Italy; 1,211 in Romania; and 1,103 in Spain for patients treated during 2015-2016 and 640 in England; 626 in Italy; 739 in Romania; and 643 in Spain for patients treated during 2017-2019. The cost-savings ranged from € 45 to € 275 million. The investment needed to expand access to DAAs in 2015-2019 is estimated to be recovered in 6.5 years in England; 5.4 years in Italy; 6.7 years in Romania; and 4.5 years in Spain. A delay in treatment because of COVID-19 will increase liver mortality in all countries.

CONCLUSION

Direct-acting antivirals have significant clinical benefits and can bring substantial cost-savings over the next 20 years, reaching a Break-even point in a short period of time. When pursuing an exit strategy from strict lockdown measures for COVID-19, providing DAAs should remain high on the list of priorities in order to maintain HCV elimination efforts.

Absolute targets for HCV elimination and national health policy paradigms: Foreseeing future requirements

The World Health Organization (WHO) targets for eliminating HCV by 2030 may be overambitious for many high-income countries. Recent analyses (ie, data from 2017 to 2019) show that only 11 countries are on track for meeting WHO's elimination targets. For a country to be truly on track, it is important that the majority of infected individuals be identified and treated. There is still a need for country and population-specific evaluations within the different HCV screening and treatment strategies available, in order to assess their cost-effectiveness and sustainability and support an evidence-based policy for HCV elimination. Any health policy model is affected by the diversity and quality of the available data and by gaps in data. Given the differences among countries, comparing progress based on fixed global targets will not necessarily be suitable in the same measure for each country. In a recent document, the European Collaborators of Polaris Observatory provide insight into the limitations of the current WHO targets. The absolute targets identified by each country in accordance with the measures set by WHO would be essential in reaching the HCV elimination. All analytic models to assess the progress towards HCV elimination are based on projections to 2030 not including the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on hepatitis-related services. With specific regard to the achievement of WHO hepatitis elimination goals, all measures that will be put in place during and after COVID-19 pandemic could be transferred in increasing diagnosis and linkage to care of people with hepatitis.

Addressing HCV Elimination Barriers in Italy: Healthcare Resource Utilization and Cost Impact Using 8 Weeks' Glecaprevir/Pibrentasvir Therapy

Introduction

In Italy, hepatitis C virus (HCV) elimination is achievable; however, barriers remain to achieving the World Health Organization’s elimination targets, and have become more pronounced with the spread of COVID-19. Glecaprevir/pibrentasvir (G/P) is a direct-acting antiviral therapy for HCV, approved for 8-week treatment in patients without cirrhosis, and with compensated cirrhosis (CC). Previously, 12 weeks of therapy was recommended for patients with CC. Shortened treatment may reduce the burden on healthcare resources, allowing more patients to be treated. This study presents the benefits that 8-week vs 12-week treatment with G/P may have in Italy.

Methods

A multicohort Markov model was used to assess the collective number of healthcare visits and time on treatment with 8-week vs 12-week G/P in the HCV-infected population of Italy from 2019 to 2030, using healthcare resource data from post-marketing observational studies of G/P. Increased treatment capacity and downstream clinical and economic benefits were also assessed assuming the reallocation of saved healthcare visits to treat more patients.

Results

Modeled outcomes showed that by 2030, 8-week treatment saved 27,006 years on therapy compared with 12-week treatment, with 21,065 fewer hepatologist visits. Reallocating these resources to treat more patients could increase capacity to treat 5064 (1.4%) more patients with 8 weeks of G/P, all with CC. This increased treatment capacity would further avoid 2257 cases of end-stage liver disease, 893 liver-related deaths, and provide net savings to the healthcare system of nearly €70 million.

Conclusion

The modeled comparisons between 8- and 12-week treatment with G/P show that shorter treatment duration can lead to greater time and resource savings, both in terms of healthcare visits and downstream costs. These benefits have the potential to enable the treatment of more patients to overcome elimination barriers in Italy through programs aimed to engage and treat targeted HCV populations.

Assessing the impact of COVID-19 on the management of patients with liver diseases: A national survey by the Italian association for the study of the Liver

BACKGROUND

The COVID-19 pandemic had a huge impact on national and regional health systems. The impact of SARS-CoV-2 on the quality of care for patients with liver disease is still unknown.

AIMS

The Italian Association for the Study of the Liver (AISF) conducted a survey to assess the impact of SARS-CoV-2 on hepatology units activities in Italy.

METHODS

A prospective web-based survey was proposed to all AISF active members. The survey was available online from April 8 2020, to May 3 2020, (lockdown phase in Italy).

RESULTS

194 AISF members answered the questionnaire, most of whom were specialists in Gastroenterology (41%) or Internal Medicine (28%), and worked in Northern Italy (51%). 26% of hepatology wards had been converted into COVID-19 wards, and 33% had bed reductions. All hepatological activities, including the management of patients with decompensated liver disease, liver transplant and HCC had been significantly reduced/stopped. The number of physicians answering that their practices had not been modified ranged between 0.6% (for chronic hepatitis) to 47% (for the execution of paracentesis). The recorded answers were consistent among different regions, and did not show any north-south gradient CONCLUSION: COVID-19 outbreak significantly impacted on hepatological clinical activity. This survey can serve as a basis to compare the impact of future measures aimed at delivering an acceptable level of liver care during a national pandemic or crisis.