Macro shocks and micro outcomes: child nutrition during Indonesia's crisis

Long-term impacts of an early childhood shock on human capital: Evidence from the 1999 economic crisis in Ecuador

This paper provides evidence on the lasting effects of the 1999 economic crisis in Ecuador on human capital formation. We show for children born during the crisis that the negative repercussions are still observable more than 10 years after macroeconomic recovery. Taking advantage of micro-level data collected in 2012 and 2014, we assess long-term impacts on health and education. After controlling for age-in-months and survey effects as well as a linear birth year-cohort trend that varies by region, we find that after 12-16 years, the cohorts born during the recession report height-for-age Z-scores that are 0.003 standard deviations (SDs) lower for each month of exposure and have 0.002 fewer years of schooling per month exposed compared to the cohorts born outside the recession years. Children exposed to the entire crisis are 0.063 SDs smaller and have 0.042 years less of schooling. Girls have lower health outcomes than boys. Concomitantly, we show that selective childbearing or excess infant mortality are unlikely to drive our results. The persistence of the negative effects points to the existence of a poverty trap suggesting that policy interventions in response to (economic) crizes should be extended beyond macroeconomic recovery to counteract long-term, micro-level consequences.

Food inflation and child undernutrition in low and middle income countries

The 21st Century has been marked by increased volatility in food prices, with global price spikes in 2007-08, 2010-11, and again in 2021-22. The impact of food inflation on the risk of child undernutrition is not well understood, however. This study explores the potential impacts of food inflation on wasting and stunting among 1.27 million pre-school children from 44 developing countries. On average, a 5 percent increase in the real price of food increases the risk of wasting by 9 percent and severe wasting by 14 percent. These risks apply to young infants, suggesting a prenatal pathway, as well as to older children who typically experience a deterioration in diet quality in the wake of food inflation. Male children and children from poor and rural landless households are more severely impacted. Food inflation during pregnancy and the first year after birth also increases the risk of stunting for children 2-5 years of age. This evidence provides a strong rationale for interventions to prevent food inflation and mitigate its impacts on vulnerable children and their mothers.

Deterministic-stochastic analysis of fractional differential equations malnutrition model with random perturbations and crossover effects

To boost the handful of nutrient-dense individuals in the societal structure, adequate health care documentation and comprehension are permitted. This will strengthen and optimize the well-being of the community, particularly the girls and women of the community that are welcoming the new generation. In this article, we extensively explored a deterministic-stochastic malnutrition model involving nonlinear perturbation via piecewise fractional operators techniques. This novel concept leads us to analyze and predict the process from the beginning to the end of the well-being growth, as it offers the possibility to observe many behaviors from cross over to stochastic processes. Moreover, the piecewise differential operators, which can be constructed with operators such as classical, Caputo, Caputo-Fabrizio, Atangana-Baleanu and stochastic derivative. The threshold parameter is developed and the role of malnutrition in society is examined. Through a rigorous analysis, we first demonstrated that the stochastic model's solution is positive and global. Then, using appropriate stochastic Lyapunov candidates, we examined whether the stochastic system acknowledges a unique ergodic stationary distribution. The objective of this investigation is to design a nutritional deficiency in pregnant women using a piecewise fractional differential equation scheme. We examined multiple options and outlined numerical methods of coping with problems. To exemplify the effectiveness of the suggested concept, graphical conclusions, including chaotic and random perturbation patterns, are supplied. Consequently, fractional calculus' innovative aspects provide more powerful and flexible layouts, enabling us to more effectively adapt to the system dynamics tendencies of real-world representations. This has opened new doors to readers in different disciplines and enabled them to capture different behaviors at different time intervals.

Cost and affordability of a healthy diet for urban populations in Thailand and the Philippines before and during the COVID-19 pandemic

BACKGROUND

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic severely affected global food security, but analyses of its impact on the cost and affordability of a healthy diet are limited. This study examines the immediate effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the cost and affordability of a healthy diet among urban households in Bangkok, Thailand and Manila, the Philippines.

METHODS

We used official food price and household income and food expenditure data from the national statistics offices. The cost of recommended diet (CoRD) method was employed to assess the minimum cost of a healthy diet, following the healthy diet recommendations provided in the national food-based dietary guidelines of the specific countries. Regression discontinuity design was estimated to determine the COVID-19 effect on food prices and scenario analysis done to determine the effect of reduced food budgets with and without government relief programs.

RESULTS

The results show that the average cost of the recommended diet was US$ 1.55 per person/day in Bangkok and US$ 3.76 in Manila (2019 prices in purchasing power parities) immediately before the pandemic. This diet is generally affordable for all households in Bangkok, but only for 37% of households (4.98 million people) in Manila, indicating much higher poverty in the latter. The pandemic and associated government measures decreased the cost of the recommended diet with 6.5% in Bangkok (p = 0.001) but not in Manila (p = 0.167). Assuming contractions in people's food budgets of 15-20%, the recommended diet became unaffordable for 0.08-0.12 million people in Bangkok and 6.32-7.73 million people in Manila during the pandemic. Government relief largely compensated for this loss in Bangkok, but relief payments in Manila were not enough to compensate the effect.

CONCLUSION

These results show that the main effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the affordability of healthy diets was through the effect on reduced incomes of the poor rather than through prices. Government relief measures should target low-income households to give them the means to purchase healthy food items.

Impact of COVID-19 on Micronutrient Adequacy and Dietary Diversity among Women of Reproductive Age from Selected Households in Bangladesh

Women of reproductive age (WRA) are recognized as a nutritionally sensitive demographic that is vulnerable to micronutrient deficiencies. The purpose of this study is to determine the situation and influencing factors of diet diversity and micronutrient adequacy during the pandemic-induced economic lockdown period among women living in a selected area of Bangladesh. Twenty-four-hour dietary recall was used to measure the nutrient intake and also used for constructing the Minimum Dietary Diversity for Women (MDD-W) and nutrient adequacy ratio (NAR). Household food insecurity and coping strategies were also measured. Multivariate logistic regression was carried out to identify the link between potential risk factors and MDD-W. About two-thirds (59.9%) of the study subjects did not meet the MDD-W threshold. The women's total energy and protein consumptions were 1475.1 kcal and 46.3 g, respectively, with the diversified diet group consuming more than the non-diverse diet group. Except for vitamin C, vitamin A, and vitamin D, all micronutrients evaluated in the diversified diet group had significantly higher NAR values than the non-diverse diet group. The mean adequacy ratio (MAR) of the overall reproductive women was 0.468 ± 0.096, and it was significantly associated with MDD-W. Another notable finding is that attainment of minimal diversity was not sufficient to achieve acceptable nutrient adequacy for women, pertaining to their low-quantity intake. In addition to this, household size, women's education, coping strategy, and the MAR were found to be significant determinants of MDD-W in the multivariate logistic regression analysis. The findings of the present study therefore highlight the impending need for interventions that ensure good dietary quality for women even during crisis periods.

The impact of COVID-19 on diet quality, food security and nutrition in low and middle income countries: A systematic review of the evidence

BACKGROUND & AIMS

The current global pandemic of Coronavirus (COVID-19), and measures adopted to reduce its spread, threaten the nutritional status of populations in Low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Documenting how the COVID-19 affects diets, nutrition and food security can help generating evidence-informed recommendations for mitigating interventions and policies.

METHODS

We carried out a systematic literature review. A structured search strategy was applied in MEDLINE (Pubmed®), EMBASE®, Scopus® and Web of Science®. Grey literature was retrieved by screening a pre-set list of institutions involved in monitoring the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on nutrition and food security. The first search was done on 20th August 2020, and updated in mid-November 2020 and mid-January 2021. All research steps were described as recommended in the PRISMA statement.

RESULTS

Out of the 2085 references identified, thirty-five primary studies were included. In spite of their heterogeneity, studies converge to demonstrate a detrimental effect of COVID-19 pandemic and associated containment measures on diet quality and food insecurity. One of the major direct effects of COVID-19 on food and nutrition outcomes has been through its impact on employment, income generating activities and associated purchasing power. Other channels of impact, such as physical access, availability and affordability of food provided a heterogeneous picture and were assessed via binary and often simplistic questions. The impacts of COVID-19 on food systems and diets manifested with various intensity degrees, duration and in different forms. Factors contributing to these variations between and within countries were: 1) timing, duration and stringency of national COVID-19 restriction measures and policies to mitigate their adverse impacts; 2) context specific food value chain responses to domestic and international containment measures; 3) differentiated impacts of restriction measures on different groups, along lines of gender, age, socio-economic status and employment conditions. Shorter value chains and traditional smallholder farms were somewhat more resilient in the face of COVID-19 pandemic. Additionally, the impact of the pandemic has been particularly adverse on women, individuals with a low socio-economic status, informal workers and young adults that relied on daily wages. Finally, there were heterogeneous government responses to curb the virus and to mitigate the damaging effects of the pandemic. It has been demonstrated that existing and well-functioning social protection programmes and public distribution of food can buffer the adverse effects on food insecurity. But social safety nets cannot be effective on their own and there is a need for broader food systems interventions and investments to support sustainable and inclusive food systems to holistically achieve food and nutrition security.

CONCLUSION

The current economic and heath crisis impacted diet quality and food security. This raises concerns about long term impacts on access to and affordability of nutrient-rich, healthy diets and their health implications. Women and individuals with a low socio-economic are likely to be the most at risk of food insecurity. Social safety nets can be effective to protect them and must be urgently implemented. We advocate for improved data collection to identify vulnerable groups and measure how interventions are successful in protecting them.

Disruption to vegetable food systems during the COVID-19 pandemic in the Lao People's Democratic Republic

Globally, the COVID-19 (SARSCoV-2) pandemic has affected human health and the flow of goods and services in many sectors, with significant social and economic consequences and repercussions. COVID-19 lockdowns have disrupted food systems; impacting farmers, food producers, traders and consumers. Using a food system approach, disruptions to and the resilience of vegetable food production and trade was analysed. Representatives of traditional farming systems in Lao PDR producing and trading vegetables were involved. Over 350 farmers, 60 wholesalers, 50 retailers and 70 consumers were surveyed to determine the disruptions to vegetable supplies in terms of quantities traded, prices and income fluctuations. Findings revealed significant impacts on trading capacity and consequent reductions in incomes, prices, purchases, transport and sales of produce. However, livelihoods resumed as soon as the lockdown lifted. Traditionally, vegetable production and trading are a woman's tasks and hence women were the most affected by the disruptions. With trading contractions, the stability of the food supply was threatened, but only temporarily, indicating that a traditional, resilient farming system based on lower population densities, lower input requirements and lower productivity could adapt to novel disruptions in the short term.

Evaluation of Nutritional Value, Antioxidant Activity, and Phenolic Content of Protium serratum Engl and Artocarpus chama Buch.-Ham, Wild Edible Fruits Available in Tripura, a North-Eastern State of India

Background:

Protium serratum Engl (Indian red pear) and Artocarpus chama Buch.- Ham (wild jackfruit) are typical wild edible fruits that have a wide range of folk medicinal properties.

Objectives:

Our present study deals with the exploration of nutritional value, antioxidant activity, and total phenolic content present in Protium serratum Engl and Artocarpus chama Buch.-Ham fruits.

Methods:

The soxhlet apparatus was used to extract crude samples. The quantitative analysis of the wild edible fruits was broadly done by proximate and ultimate analysis techniques.

Results:

The results showed that the moisture contents in P. serratum and A. chama Buch. are 78.53% and 74.23%, respectively. The obtained ash (8.59%), fiber (3.17%), total sugar (5.495 mg/100g), and fat (0.66%) contents are high in P. serratum. In contrast, A. chama Buch. has a high content of protein (0.52%). Vitamin C content is higher in P. serratum (550 mg/100g) than that in A. chama Buch. (350 mg/100g). The result shows that the Ca and Mg contents are higher in P. serratum compared to A. chama Buch. Indian red pear shows good antioxidant properties and has high total phenolic content as compared to wild jackfruit and some commercial fruits.

Conclusion:

The study establishes that further investigation must be done to determine the development of new products, processing, and preservation techniques so that two underutilized fruits can become a part of our regular dietary habits. By doing so, we can enrich the fruit basket of the country.

Food Intake and Diet Quality of Pregnant Women in China During the COVID-19 Pandemic: A National Cross-Sectional Study

Background:

Between January and April 2020, China implemented differentiated prevention and control strategies across the country, based on the severity of the COVID-19 epidemic/pandemic in different regions. These strategies included lockdowns, social distancing, and the closure of public places. These measures may have affected dietary intake to varying degrees. This study aimed to assess variations in food intake and diet quality among pregnant women according to regional severity and related control measures during the most severe period of COVID-19 restrictions in 2020.

Methods

A total of 3,678 pregnant women from 19 provinces/municipalities in mainland China were analyzed in this nationwide, multi-center study. Food intake data were obtained and assessed using a validated food frequency questionnaire (FFQ). Diet quality was quantified using the Diet Balance Index for Pregnancy (DBI-P), which included high bound score (HBS, excessive dietary intake), low bound score (LBS, insufficient dietary intake), and diet quality distance (DQD, dietary imbalance). Linear trend tests and multivariable regression analyses were performed to examine the association between food intake, DBI-P and the severity of pandemic.

Results

The median daily intake of vegetables, fruit, livestock/poultry meat, dairy, and nuts decreased (p < 0.05) according to low, moderate, and high severity of the pandemic, while no significant differences in cereals/potatoes, eggs, and fish/shrimp intake. The median daily intake of cereals/potatoes exceeded the recommended ranges, and the daily intake of eggs and fish/shrimp was below recommended ranges regardless of the pandemic severity (p < 0.05). Regarding diet quality, HBS decreased (lower excessive consumption) (p = 0.047) and LBS increased (greater insufficient consumption) (p = 0.046) with increased severity of the pandemic. On multivariable analyses, moderate and high pandemic severity were related to lower HBS risk (OR = 0.687, OR = 0.537) and higher LBS risk (β = 1.517, β = 3.020) when compared to low pandemic severity.

Conclusions

Under more severe COVID-19 pandemic conditions, pregnant women consumed less quality food, characterized by reduced consumption of vegetables, fruit, livestock/poultry meat, dairy and nuts, while the quality of the foods that pregnant women consumed in excess tended to improve, but the overconsumption of cereals/potatoes was a problem.

The Early Impacts of COVID-19 on Food Security and Livelihood in Vietnam

In April 2020, Vietnam initiated a country-wide lockdown to curb the spread of COVID-19. This secondary data analysis evaluates whether NGO-supported households (n = 3,431) reporting to be severely impacted by the lockdowns differ from those reporting a lesser impact, regarding food availability within households and at markets and affordability. 19.2% of respondents indicated that the pandemic had severely impacted their livelihoods. In the severely impacted group, there was a higher percentage of urban residents (25.3 vs. 8.6%; p &lt; 0.001), households reporting decreased income (85.4 vs. 39.9%), and females (56.4 vs. 45.6%; p &lt; 0.001) than in the less impacted group. Both groups reported similar availabilities of staple food groups at the household-level, but the availability of green vegetables was lower in the severely affected group (Adjusted OR [aOR] = 0.62, 95% CI: 0.38, 1.00) than in the less affected group. However, local market availability of hygiene items (aOR = 1.64, 95% CI: 1.13, 2.39) and essential medicines (aOR = 1.80, 95% CI: 1.29, 2.50) were higher for the more impacted group relative to the less impacted group. While the self-reported livelihood impact of COVID-19 was associated with a loss of income, the association of indicators of food availability within households and at markets, and essential item affordability, did not frequently differ. Self-determination of a severe economic impact may represent a relative change in the household's socioeconomic status from before the pandemic.

Food Insecurity, Nutritional Inequality, and Maternal–Child Health: A Role for Biocultural Scholarship in Filling Knowledge Gaps

Food insecurity, a significant contributor to nutritional inequality, disproportionately affects women and children in low- and middle-income countries. The magnitude of the problem has inspired research on its impacts on health, especially on nutritional status and, more recently, mental well-being. Current research is dominated by surveillance-type studies that emphasize access, one of food security's four dimensions. Findings are inconclusive regarding the association between food insecurity and women and children's nutritional status, but some evidence indicates that it is a key contributor to mental distress in women. To understand these inconsistent findings, we emphasize the need for research on the strategies that people use to cope with inadequate access to food. We contend that biocultural approaches that recognize the importance of local contexts and the role of broader political-economic factors in shaping them are well suited for addressing current knowledge gaps.

Reverse thinking: taking a healthy diet perspective towards food systems transformations

Food systems that deliver healthy diets without exceeding the planet’s resources are essential to achieve the worlds’ ambitious development goals. Healthy diets need to be safe, accessible, and affordable for all, including for disadvantaged and nutritionally vulnerable groups such as of smallholder producers, traders, and consumers in low- and middle-income countries. Globally, food systems are experiencing rapid and drastic changes and are failing to fulfil these multiple duties simultaneously. The international community therefore calls for rigorous food systems transformations and policy solutions to support the achievement of healthy diets for all. Most strategies, however, are essentially supply- and market-oriented. Incorporation of a healthy diet perspective in food system transformation is essential to enable food systems to deliver not only on supplying nutritious foods but also on ensuring that consumers have access can afford and desire healthy, sustainable, and culturally acceptable diets. This paper argues that this should be guided by information on diets, dietary trends, consumer motives, and food environment characteristics. Transformational approaches and policies should also take into account the stage of food system development requiring different strategies to ensure healthier diets for consumers. We review current knowledge on drivers of consumer choices at the individual and food environment level with special emphasis on low- and middle income countries, discuss the converging and conflicting objectives that exist among multiple food-system actors, and argue that failure to strengthen synergies and resolve trade-offs may lead to missed opportunities and benefits, or negative unintended consequences in food system outcomes. The paper proposes a menu of promising consumer- and food-environment- oriented policy options to include in the food systems transformation agenda in order to shift LMIC consumer demand towards healthier diets in low- and middle income countries.

COVID-19 pandemic leads to greater depth of unaffordability of healthy and nutrient-adequate diets in low- and middle-income countries

Unaffordability of healthy diets affected 3 billion people before the COVID-19 pandemic, 2.5 billion of whom lived in 63 low- and middle-income countries. In these 63 countries, income losses due to the pandemic have markedly worsened the affordability gap. The proportion of people unable to afford half the cost of a healthy diet increased from 43% to 50%; this increased unaffordability will aggravate undernutrition, micronutrient deficiencies and diet-related non-communicable diseases.

Short-term impacts of COVID-19 on food security and nutrition in rural Guatemala: Phone-based farm household survey evidence

This article examines the short-term effects of the COVID-19 lockdown on food security and nutrition in rural Guatemala. We rely on a comprehensive panel dataset of 1,824 small agricultural households collected over two survey rounds, on November-December 2019 and May-June 2020. We place special emphasis on changes in agricultural and nonagricultural income sources, including remittances, and changes in dietary diversity, including consumption of animal source foods (ASF) and fruits and vegetables (F&V). We find that COVID-19 affected the incomes, food security, and dietary patterns of households, with a decrease in ASF diversity and an increase in F&V diversity, and an overall net decrease in dietary diversity across all food groups. Dietary diversity among women in reproductive age, however, remained unchanged, and increased among children under 2 years old. Interestingly, households with relatively higher incomes appear to have reduced their dietary diversity to a larger extent than lower income ones, as well as households located in communities with more severe access restrictions. The focus of the study in a region with a high prevalence of poverty and chronic malnutrition provides an important perspective into the consequences of the lockdown in complex rural contexts with vulnerable populations and contributes to inform eventual recovery measures.

Cost-effectiveness of a market-based home fortification of food with micronutrient powder programme in Bangladesh

OBJECTIVE

We estimated the cost-effectiveness of home fortification with micronutrient powder delivered in a sales-based programme in reducing the prevalence of Fe deficiency anaemia among children 6-59 months in Bangladesh.

DESIGN

Cross-sectional interviews with local and central-level programme staff and document reviews were conducted. Using an activity-based costing approach, we estimated start-up and implementation costs of the programme. The incremental cost per anaemia case averted and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) averted were estimated by comparing the home fortification programme and no intervention scenarios.

SETTING

The home fortification programme was implemented in 164 upazilas (sub-districts) in Bangladesh.

PARTICIPANTS

Caregivers of child 6-59 months and BRAC staff members including community health workers were the participants for this study.

RESULTS

The home fortification programme had an estimated total start-up cost of 35·46 million BDT (456 thousand USD) and implementation cost of 1111·63 million BDT (14·12 million USD). The incremental cost per Fe deficiency anaemia case averted and per DALY averted was estimated to be 1749 BDT (22·2 USD) and 12 558 BDT (159·3 USD), respectively. Considering per capita gross domestic product (1516·5 USD) as the cost-effectiveness threshold, the home fortification programme was highly cost-effective. The programme coverage and costs for nutritional counselling of the beneficiary were influential parameters for cost per DALY averted in the one-way sensitivity analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

The market-based home fortification programme was a highly cost-effective mechanism for delivering micronutrients to a large number of children in Bangladesh. The policymakers should consider funding and sustaining large-scale sales-based micronutrient home fortification efforts assuming the clear population-level need and potential to benefit persists.

Shaping Physical, Economic, and Policy Components of the Food Environment to Create Sustainable Healthy Diets

Background:

Sustainable healthy diets are those dietary patterns that promote all dimensions of individuals’ health and well-being; have low environmental pressure and impact; are accessible, affordable, safe, and equitable; and are culturally acceptable. The food environment, defined as the interface between the wider food system and consumer’s food acquisition and consumption, is critical for ensuring equitable access to foods that are healthy, safe, affordable, and appealing.

Discussion:

Current food environments are creating inequities, and sustainable healthy foods are generally more accessible for those of higher socioeconomic status. The physical, economic, and policy components of the food environment can all be acted on to promote sustainable healthy diets. Physical spaces can be modified to improve relative availability (ie, proximity) of food outlets that carry nutritious foods in low-income communities; to address economic access certain actions may improve affordability, such as fortification, preventing food loss through supply chain improvements; and commodity specific vouchers for fruits, vegetables, and legumes. Other policy actions that address accessibility to sustainable healthy foods are comprehensive marketing restrictions and easy-to-understand front-of-pack nutrition labels. While shaping food environments will require concerted action from all stakeholders, governments and private sector bear significant responsibility for ensuring equitable access to sustainable healthy diets.

Climate Variability and Child Nutrition: Findings from Sub-Saharan Africa

Climatic variability affects many underlying determinants of child malnutrition, including food availability, access, and utilization. Evidence of the effects of changing temperatures and precipitation on children's nutritional status nonetheless remains limited. Research addressing this knowledge gap is merited given the short- and long-run consequences of malnutrition. We address this issue by estimating the effects of temperature and precipitation anomalies on the weight and wasting status of children ages 0-59 months across 16 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. Linear regression models show that high temperatures and low precipitation are associated with reductions in child weight, and that high temperatures also lead to increased risk of wasting. We find little evidence of substantively meaningful differences in these effects across sub-populations of interest. Our results underscore the vulnerability of young children to climatic variability and its second-order economic and epidemiological effects. The study also highlights the corresponding need to design and assess interventions to effectively mitigate these impacts.

What factors are associated with maternal undernutrition in eastern zone of Tigray, Ethiopia? Evidence for nutritional well-being of lactating mothers

Background

Maternal undernutrition is a pervasive health problem among Ethiopian mothers. This study aims at identifying the level of maternal undernutrition and its associated factors in Kilte Awaleo-Health and Demographic Surveillance Site (KA-HDSS), Tigray region, Ethiopia.

Methods

Nutritional status of 2260 lactating mothers was evaluated using the mid-upper-arm circumference (MUAC). Data from the vital events and verbal autopsy databases were linked to the survey and baseline recensus data to investigate the association of adult mortality from chronic causes of death (CoD) on maternal undernutrition. We employed a generalized log-binomial model to estimate the independent effects of the fitted covariates.

Results

The overall prevalence of maternal undernutrition based on MUAC < 23 cm was 38% (95% CI: 36.1, 40.1%). Recent occurrence of household morbidity (adjusted prevalence ratio (adjPR) = 1.49; 95%CI: 1.22, 1.81) was associated with increased risk of maternal undernutrition. In addition, there was a 28% higher risk (adjPR = 1.28; 95%CI: 0.98, 1.67) of maternal undernutrition for those mothers who lived in households with history of adult mortality from chronic diseases. Especially, its association with severe maternal undernutrition was strong (adjusted OR = 3.27; 95%CI: 1.48, 7.22). In contrast, good maternal health-seeking practice (adjPR = 0.86; 95%CI: 0.77, 0.96) and production of diverse food crops (adjPR = 0.72; 95%CI: 0.64, 0.81) were associated with a lower risk of maternal undernutrition. Relative to mothers with low scores of housing and environmental factors index (HAEFI), those with medium and higher scores of HAEFI had 0.81 (adjPR = 0.81; 95%CI: 0.69, 0.95) and 0.82 (adjPR = 0.82; 95%CI: 0.72, 0.95) times lower risk of maternal undernutrition, respectively.

Conclusions

Efforts to ameliorate maternal undernutrition need to consider the influence of the rising epidemiology of adult mortality from chronic diseases. Our data clearly indicate the need for channeling the integrated intervention power of nutrition-sensitive development programs with that of nutrition-specific sectoral services.

Mapping disruption and resilience mechanisms in food systems

This opinion article results from a collective analysis by the Editorial Board of Food Security. It is motivated by the ongoing covid-19 global epidemic, but expands to a broader view on the crises that disrupt food systems and threaten food security, locally to globally. Beyond the public health crisis it is causing, the current global pandemic is impacting food systems, locally and globally. Crises such as the present one can, and do, affect the stability of food production. One of the worst fears is the impacts that crises could have on the potential to produce food, that is, on the primary production of food itself, for example, if material and non-material infrastructure on which agriculture depends were to be damaged, weakened, or fall in disarray. Looking beyond the present, and not minimising its importance, the covid-19 crisis may turn out to be the trigger for overdue fundamental transformations of agriculture and the global food system. This is because the global food system does not work well today: the number of hungry people in the world has increased substantially, with the World Food Programme warning of the possibility of a "hunger pandemic". Food also must be nutritious, yet unhealthy diets are a leading cause of death. Deepening crises impoverish the poorest, disrupt food systems, and expand "food deserts". A focus on healthy diets for all is all the more relevant when everyone's immune system must react to infection during a global pandemic. There is also accumulating and compelling evidence that the global food system is pushing the Earth system beyond the boundaries of sustainability. In the past twenty years, the growing demand for food has increasingly been met through the destruction of Earth's natural environment, and much less through progress in agricultural productivity generated by scientific research, as was the case during the two previous decades. There is an urgent need to reduce the environmental footprint of the global food system: if its performances are not improved rapidly, the food system could itself be one main cause for food crises in the near future. The article concludes with a series of recommendations intended for policy makers and science leaders to improve the resilience of the food system, global to local, and in the short, medium and long term.

Food system disruption: initial livelihood and dietary effects of COVID-19 on vegetable producers in India

Disruption to food systems and impacts on livelihoods and diets have been brought into sharp focus by the COVID-19 pandemic. We aimed to investigate effects of this multi-layered shock on production, sales, prices, incomes and diets for vegetable farmers in India as both producers and consumers of nutrient-dense foods. We undertook a rapid telephone survey with 448 farmers in 4 states, in one of the first studies to document the early impacts of the pandemic and policy responses on farming households.

We find that a majority of farmers report negative impacts on production, sales, prices and incomes. Over 80% of farms reported some decline in sales, and over 20% of farms reported devastating declines (sold almost nothing). Price reductions were reported by over 80% of farmers, and reductions by more than half for 50% of farmers. Similarly, farm income reportedly dropped for 90% of farms, and by more than half for 60%.

Of surveyed households, 62% reported disruptions to their diets. A majority of farm households reported reduced ability to access the most nutrient-dense foods. Around 80% of households reported ability to protect their staple food consumption, and the largest falls in consumption were in fruit and animal source foods other than dairy, in around half of households. Reported vegetable consumption fell in almost 30% of households, but vegetables were also the only food group where consumption increased for some, in around 15% of households.

Our data suggest higher vulnerability of female farmers in terms of both livelihoods and diet, and differential effects on smaller and larger farms, meaning different farms may require different types of support in order to continue to function. Farms reported diverse coping strategies to maintain sales, though often with negative implications for reported incomes. The ability to consume one’s own produce may be somewhat protective of diets when other routes to food access fail.

The impacts of COVID-19 and subsequent policy responses on both livelihoods and diets in horticultural households risk rolling back the impressive economic and nutrition gains India has seen over the past decade. Food systems, and particularly those making available the most nutrient-dense foods, must be considered in ongoing and future government responses.

Empirical studies of factors associated with child malnutrition: highlighting the evidence about climate and conflict shocks

Children who experience poor nutrition during the first 1000 days of life are more vulnerable to illness and death in the near term, as well as to lower work capacity and productivity as adults. These problems motivate research to identify basic and underlying factors that influence risks of child malnutrition. Based on a structured search of existing literature, we identified 90 studies that used statistical analyses to assess relationships between potential factors and major indicators of child malnutrition: stunting, wasting, and underweight. Our review determined that wasting, a measure of acute malnutrition, is substantially understudied compared to the other indicators. We summarize the evidence about relationships between child malnutrition and numerous factors at the individual, household, region/community, and country levels. Our results identify only select relationships that are statistically significant, with consistent signs, across multiple studies. Among the consistent predictors of child malnutrition are shocks due to variations in climate conditions (as measured with indicators of temperature, rainfall, and vegetation) and violent conflict. Limited research has been conducted on the relationship between violent conflict and wasting. Improved understanding of the variables associated with child malnutrition will aid advances in predictive modeling of the risks and severity of malnutrition crises and enhance the effectiveness of responses by the development and humanitarian communities.

Estimating the potential effects of COVID-19 pandemic on food commodity prices and nutrition security in Nepal

The objective of the paper is to analyse changes in food commodity prices and estimate the potential effects of food price change on nutrition security in Nepal in the context of COVID-19 contagion control measures. It presents a comparative intra-country observational study design looking at events before and during the pandemic (after implementation of contagion control measures). The study design includes three districts, enabling comparison between diverse agro-ecological zones and geographical contexts. The methodology consists of primary data collection, modelling and quantitative analysis. The analysis is based on actual school meal food baskets which represent culturally and nutritionally optimised food baskets, developed by the local community and notional typical household food baskets. End May/early June 2020 is the 'Post-COVID-19' reference point, the same time period in 2019 i.e. June 2019 is the 'Pre-COVID-19' reference point. The study finds a substantial increase in food commodity prices across food groups and districts with marked inter-district variation. For school meal basket, all micronutrients show large average declines ranging from 9⋅5 % for zinc to 11 % for vitamin-A. For household food baskets on average, vitamin-A reduced 37 % followed by iron at 19 %, reduction in zinc is low due to the high zinc content in whole grain cereals. COVID-19 control measures are likely to have contributed to substantial price inflation over the reference period with potentially damaging effects on nutrition security in Nepal with serious implications for vulnerable populations.

Drought exposure as a risk factor for child undernutrition in low- and middle-income countries: A systematic review and assessment of empirical evidence

BACKGROUND

Droughts affect around 52 million people globally each year, a figure that is likely to increase under climate change.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the strength of empirical evidence on drought exposure as a risk factor for undernutrition in children <5 years of age in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs).

METHODS

Systematic review of observational studies published between 1990 and 2018 in English and reporting undernutrition outcomes in children <5 years of age in relation to droughts in LMICs. The search was performed in the Global Health, Medline, Embase, and Scopus databases. We assessed the strength of evidence following the Navigation Guide.

RESULTS

27 studies met our inclusion criteria. 12 reported prevalence estimates in drought-affected conditions without comparison to unaffected conditions. These showed high prevalence of chronic and mixed undernutrition and poor to critical levels of acute undernutrition. Only two studies were judged to have low risk of bias. Overall, the strength of evidence of drought as a risk factor was found to be limited, but the two studies with low risk of bias suggested positive associations of drought exposure with children being underweight and having anaemia.

CONCLUSION

Published evidence suggests high levels of all types of child undernutrition in drought-affected populations in low-income settings, but the extent to which these levels are attributable to drought has not been clearly quantified and may be context specific. This review offers suggestions for enhancing the quality of future studies to strengthen evidence on the potential magnitude, timing, and modifying factors of drought impacts.

Climate Shocks Constrain Human Fertility in Indonesia

Climate change is likely to induce a large range of household- and individual-level responses, including changes in human fertility behaviors and outcomes. These responses may have important implications for human and economic development and women's empowerment. Drawing on the literature linking climate conditions to rice cultivation in Indonesia, we use longitudinal household survey and high-resolution climate data to explore changes in childbearing intentions, family planning use, and births following community-level climate shocks from 1993 to 2015. We find that fertility intentions increase and family planning use declines in response to delays in monsoon onset occurring within the previous year, particularly for wealthier populations. However, women on farms are significantly more likely to use family planning and less likely to give birth following abnormally high temperatures during the previous five years. We also measure parallel shifts in household well-being as measured by rice, food, and non-food consumption expenditures. Our findings advance the environmental fertility literature by showing that longer duration environmental shocks can have impacts on fertility behaviors and outcomes. Collectively, our results illustrate human fertility responses to climate change in a country vulnerable to its effects, and demonstrate that in some cases, climate shocks can constrain human fertility.

Misreporting Month of Birth: Diagnosis and Implications for Research on Nutrition and Early Childhood in Developing Countries

A large literature has used children’s birthdays to identify exposure to shocks and estimate their impacts on later outcomes. Using height-for-age z scores (HAZ) for more than 990,000 children in 62 countries from 163 Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS), we show how random errors in birth dates create artifacts in HAZ that can be used to diagnose the extent of age misreporting. The most important artifact is an upward gradient in HAZ by recorded month of birth (MOB) from start to end of calendar years, resulting in a large HAZ differential between December- and January-born children of –0.32 HAZ points. We observe a second artifact associated with round ages, with a downward gradient in HAZ by recorded age in months, and then an upward step after reaching ages 2, 3, and 4. These artifacts have previously been interpreted as actual health shocks. We show that they are not related to agroclimatic conditions but are instead linked to the type of calendar used and arise mainly when enumerators do not see the child’s birth registration cards. We explain the size of the December–January gap through simulation in which 11 % of children have their birth date replaced by a random month. We find a minor impact on the average stunting rate but a larger impact in specific error-prone surveys. We further show how misreporting MOB causes attenuation bias when MOB is used for identification of shock exposure as well as systematic bias in the impact on HAZ of events that occur early or late in each calendar year.

STATE-LEVEL DIETARY DIVERSITY AS A CONTEXTUAL DETERMINANT OF NUTRITIONAL STATUS OF CHILDREN IN INDIA: A MULTILEVEL APPROACH

This study aimed to identify the determinants of nutritional status of children in India with a special focus on dietary diversity at the state level. Household-level consumption data from three rounds of the Consumer Expenditure Survey of the National Sample Survey Organization (1993-2012) were used. Information on the nutritional status of children was taken from the National Family Health Survey (2005-06). Dietary diversity indices were constructed at the state level to examine diversity in quantity of food consumed and food expenditure. Multilevel regression analysis was applied to examine the association of state-level dietary diversity and other socioeconomic factors with the nutritional status of children. It was observed that significant variation in childhood stunting, wasting and underweight could be explained by community- and state-level factors. The results indicate that dietary diversity has increased in India over time, and that dietary diversity at the state level is significantly associated with the nutritional status of children. Moreover, percentage of households with a regular salaried income in a state, percentage of educated mothers and mothers receiving antenatal care in a community are important factors for improving the nutritional status of children. Diversity in complementary child feeding is another significant determinant of nutritional status of children. The study thus concludes that increasing dietary diversity at the state level is an effective measure to reduce childhood malnutrition in India.

Misfortunes never come singly: Structural change, multiple shocks and child malnutrition in rural Senegal

This study considers the two most pronounced shocks Senegalese subsistence farmers struggle with, namely increasing purchase prices and droughts. We assess the relationship of these self-reported shocks with child health in a multi-shock approach to account for concomitance of adverse events from the natural, biological, economic and health sphere. We employ a unique farming household panel dataset containing information on children living in poor, rural households in eight regions of Senegal in 2009 and 2011 and account for structural changes occurring between survey periods due to the large scale, national Nutrition Enhancement Program. By zooming in to the micro level we demonstrate that Senegal as a Sahelian country, mainly reliant on subsistence agriculture, is very vulnerable to climate variability and international price developments: According to our conservative estimates, the occurrence of a drought explains 25% of the pooled weight-for-age standard deviation, income losses 31%. Our multi-shock analysis reveals that the shocks are perceived as more severe in 2011 with droughts explaining up to 44% of the standard deviation of child health, increased prices up to 21%. Yet, the concomitance of droughts and increased prices after the structural change, i.e. the Nutrition Enhancement Program, indicates that the health of children experiencing both shocks in 2011 has improved. We argue that these results are driven by the increase in rural household income as theoretically outlined in the agricultural household model. Thus, adequate policy responses to shocks do not only depend on the nature but also on the concomitance of hazardous events.

What Explains Cambodia's Success in Reducing Child Stunting-2000-2014?

In many developing countries, high levels of child undernutrition persist alongside rapid economic growth. There is considerable interest in the study of countries that have made rapid progress in child nutrition to uncover the driving forces behind these improvements. Cambodia is often cited as a success case having reduced the incidence of child stunting from 51% to 34% over the period 2000 to 2014. To what extent is this success driven by improvements in the underlying determinants of nutrition, such as wealth and education, ("covariate effects") and to what extent by changes in the strengths of association between these determinants and nutrition outcomes ("coefficient effects")? Using determinants derived from the widely-applied UNICEF framework for the analysis of child nutrition and data from four Demographic and Health Surveys datasets, we apply quantile regression based decomposition methods to quantify the covariate and coefficient effect contributions to this improvement in child nutrition. The method used in the study allows the covariate and coefficient effects to vary across the entire distribution of child nutrition outcomes. There are important differences in the drivers of improvements in child nutrition between severely stunted and moderately stunted children and between rural and urban areas. The translation of improvements in household endowments, characteristics and practices into improvements in child nutrition (the coefficient effects) may be influenced by macroeconomic shocks or other events such as natural calamities or civil disturbance and may vary substantially over different time periods. Our analysis also highlights the need to explicitly examine the contribution of targeted child health and nutrition interventions to improvements in child nutrition in developing countries.

Effects of food price shocks on child malnutrition: The Mozambican experience 2008/2009

A propitiously timed household survey carried out in Mozambique over the period 2008/2009 permits us to study the relationship between shifts in food prices and child nutrition status in a low income setting. We focus on weight-for-height and weight-for-age in different survey quarters characterized by very different food price inflation rates. Using propensity score matching techniques, we find that these nutrition measures, which are sensitive in the short run, improve significantly in the fourth quarter of the survey, when the inflation rate for basic food products is low, compared to the first semester or three quarters, when food price inflation was generally high. The prevalence of underweight, in particular, falls by about 40 percent. We conclude that the best available evidence points to food penury, driven by the food and fuel price crisis combined with a short agricultural production year, as substantially increasing malnutrition amongst under-five children in Mozambique.

Economic cycles and child mortality: A cross-national study of the least developed countries

This paper examines the effects of growth and recession periods on child mortality in the Least Developed Countries (LDCs) during the period 1990-2010. We provide empirical evidence of uneven effects of variations in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita on the evolution of child mortality rate in periods of economic recession and expansion. A decrease in GDP per capita entails a significant rise in child mortality rates, whereas an increase does not affect child mortality significantly. In this context, official development assistance seems to play a crucial role in counteracting the increment in child mortality rates in recession periods, at least in those LDCs receiving greater aid.

Quantifying the impact of rising food prices on child mortality in India: a cross-district statistical analysis of the District Level Household Survey

BACKGROUND

Rates of child malnutrition and mortality in India remain high. We tested the hypothesis that rising food prices are contributing to India's slow progress in improving childhood survival.

METHODS

Using rounds 2 and 3 (2002-08) of the Indian District Level Household Survey, we calculated neonatal, infant and under-five mortality rates in 364 districts, and merged these with district-level food price data from the National Sample Survey Office. Multivariate models were estimated, stratified into 27 less deprived states and territories and 8 deprived states ('Empowered Action Groups').

RESULTS

Between 2002 and 2008, the real price of food in India rose by 11.7%. A 1% increase in total food prices was associated with a 0.49% increase in neonatal (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.13% to 0.85%), but not infant or under-five mortality rates. Disaggregating by type of food and level of deprivation, in the eight deprived states, we found an elevation in neonatal mortality rates of 0.33% for each 1% increase in the price of meat (95% CI: 0.06% to 0.60%) and 0.10% for a 1% increase in dairy (95% CI: 0.01% to 0.20%). We also detected an adverse association of the price of dairy with infant (b = 0.09%; 95% CI: 0.01% to 0.16%) and under-five mortality rates (b = 0.10%; 95% CI: 0.03% to 0.17%). These associations were not detected in less deprived states and territories.

CONCLUSIONS

Rising food prices, particularly of high-protein meat and dairy products, were associated with worse child mortality outcomes. These adverse associations were concentrated in the most deprived states.

Methods of nutrition surveillance in low-income countries

BACKGROUND

In 1974 a joint FAO/UNICEF/WHO Expert Committee met to develop methods for nutrition surveillance. There has been much interest and activity in this topic since then, however there is a lack of guidance for practitioners and confusion exists around the terminology of nutrition surveillance. In this paper we propose a classification of data collection activities, consider the technical issues for each category, and examine the potential applications and challenges related to information and communication technology.

ANALYSIS

There are three major approaches used to collect primary data for nutrition surveillance: repeated cross-sectional surveys; community-based sentinel monitoring; and the collection of data in schools. There are three major sources of secondary data for surveillance: from feeding centres, health facilities, and community-based data collection, including mass screening for malnutrition in children. Surveillance systems involving repeated surveys are suitable for monitoring and comparing national trends and for planning and policy development. To plan at a local level, surveys at district level or in programme implementation areas are ideal, but given the usually high cost of primary data collection, data obtained from health systems are more appropriate provided they are interpreted with caution and with contextual information. For early warning, data from health systems and sentinel site assessments may be valuable, if consistent in their methods of collection and any systematic bias is deemed to be steady. For evaluation purposes, surveillance systems can only give plausible evidence of whether a programme is effective. However the implementation of programmes can be monitored as long as data are collected on process indicators such as access to, and use of, services. Surveillance systems also have an important role to provide information that can be used for advocacy and for promoting accountability for actions or lack of actions, including service delivery.

CONCLUSION

This paper identifies issues that affect the collection of nutrition surveillance data, and proposes definitions of terms to differentiate between diverse sources of data of variable accuracy and validity. Increased interest in nutrition globally has resulted in high level commitments to reduce and prevent undernutrition. This review helps to address the need for accurate and regular data to convert these commitments into practice.

The double burden of malnutrition in Indonesia: Social determinants and geographical variations

The presence of simultaneous under- and over-nutrition has been widely documented in low- and middle-income countries, but global nutritional research has seen only a few large-scale population studies from Indonesia. We investigate the social determinants as well as the geographical variations of under- and over-nutrition in Indonesia using the largest public health study ever conducted in the country, the National Basic Health Research 2007 (N=645,032). Multilevel multinomial logistic regression and quantile regression models are fitted to estimate the association between nutritional status and a number of socio-economic indicators at both the individual and district levels. We find that: (1) education and income reduce the odds of being underweight by 10-30% but at the same time increase those of overweight by 10-40%; (2) independent from the compositional effect of poverty, income inequality is detrimental to population health: a 0.1 increase in the Gini coefficient is associated with an 8-12% increase in the odds of an individual׳s being both under- and overweight; and (3) the effects that these determinants have upon nutritional status are not necessarily homogeneous along the continuum of body mass index. Equally important, our analysis reveals that there is substantial spatial clustering of areas with elevated risk of under- or over-nutrition across the 17,000-island archipelago. As of 2007, under-nutrition in Indonesia remains a 'disease of poverty', while over-nutrition is one of affluence. The income inequality accompanying Indonesia׳s economic growth may aggravate the dual burden of under- and over-nutrition. A more equitable economic policy and a policy that improves living standards may be effective for addressing the double burden.

Millennium development goal four and child health inequities in indonesia: a systematic review of the literature

Introduction

Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 4 calls for reducing mortality of children under-five years by two-thirds by 2015. Indonesia is on track to officially meet the MDG 4 targets by 2015 but progress has been far from universal. It has been argued that national level statistics, on which MDG 4 relies, obscure persistent health inequities within the country. Particularly inequities in child health are a major global public health challenge both for achieving MDG 4 in 2015 and beyond. This review aims to map out the situation of MDG 4 with respect to disadvantaged populations in Indonesia applying the Social Determinants of Health (SDH) framework. The specific objectives are to answer: Who are the disadvantaged populations? Where do they live? And why and how is the inequitable distribution of health explained in terms of the SDH framework?

Methods and Findings

We retrieved studies through a systematic review of peer-reviewed and gray literature published in 1995-2014. The PRISMA-Equity 2012 statement was adapted to guide the methods of this review. The dependent variables were MDG 4-related indicators; the independent variable “disadvantaged populations” was defined by different categories of social differentiation using PROGRESS. Included texts were analyzed following the guidelines for deductive content analysis operationalized on the basis of the SDH framework. We identified 83 studies establishing evidence on more than 40 different determinants hindering an equitable distribution of child health in Indonesia. The most prominent determinants arise from the shortcomings within the rural health care system, the repercussions of food poverty coupled with low health literacy among parents, the impact of low household decision-making power of mothers, and the consequences of high persistent use of traditional birth attendants among ethnic minorities.

Conclusion

This review calls for enhanced understanding of the determinants and pathways that create, detain, and overcome inequities in child health in resource constraint settings like Indonesia and the promotion of actionable health policy recommendations and tailored investments.

Households across all income quintiles, especially the poorest, increased animal source food expenditures substantially during recent Peruvian economic growth

BACKGROUND

Relative to plant-based foods, animal source foods (ASFs) are richer in accessible protein, iron, zinc, calcium, vitamin B-12 and other nutrients. Because of their nutritional value, particularly for childhood growth and nutrition, it is important to identify factors influencing ASF consumption, especially for poorer households that generally consume less ASFs.

OBJECTIVE

To estimate differential responsiveness of ASF consumption to changes in total household expenditures for households with different expenditures in a middle-income country with substantial recent income increases.

METHODS

The Peruvian Young Lives household panel (n = 1750) from 2002, 2006 and 2009 was used to characterize patterns of ASF expenditures. Multivariate models with controls for unobserved household fixed effects and common secular trends were used to examine nonlinear relationships between changes in household expenditures and in ASF expenditures.

RESULTS

Households with lower total expenditures dedicated greater percentages of expenditures to food (58.4% vs.17.9% in 2002 and 24.2% vs. 21.5% in 2009 for lowest and highest quintiles respectively) and lower percentages of food expenditures to ASF (22.8% vs. 33.9% in 2002 and 30.3% vs. 37.6% in 2009 for lowest and highest quintiles respectively). Average percentages of overall expenditures spent on food dropped from 47% to 23.2% between 2002 and 2009. Households in the lowest quintiles of expenditures showed greater increases in ASF expenditures relative to total consumption than households in the highest quintiles. Among ASF components, meat and poultry expenditures increased more than proportionately for households in the lowest quintiles, and eggs and fish expenditures increased less than proportionately for all households.

CONCLUSIONS

Increases in household expenditures were associated with substantial increases in consumption of ASFs for households, particularly households with lower total expenditures. Increases in ASF expenditures for all but the top quintile of households were proportionately greater than increases in total food expenditures, and proportionately less than overall expenditures.