Evaluation of objective response, disease control and progression-free survival as surrogate end-points for overall survival in anti-programmed death-1 and anti-programmed death ligand 1 trials

Hybridizing mechanistic modeling and deep learning for personalized survival prediction after immune checkpoint inhibitor immunotherapy

We present a study where predictive mechanistic modeling is combined with deep learning methods to predict individual patient survival probabilities under immune checkpoint inhibitor (ICI) immunotherapy. This hybrid approach enables prediction based on both measures that are calculable from mechanistic models of key mechanisms underlying ICI therapy that may not be directly measurable in the clinic and easily measurable quantities or patient characteristics that are not always readily incorporated into predictive mechanistic models. A deep learning time-to-event predictive model trained on a hybrid mechanistic + clinical data set from 93 patients achieved higher per-patient predictive accuracy based on event-time concordance, Brier score, and negative binomial log-likelihood-based criteria than when trained on only mechanistic model-derived values or only clinical data. Feature importance analysis revealed that both clinical and model-derived parameters play prominent roles in increasing prediction accuracy, further supporting the advantage of our hybrid approach.

Predict progression free survival and overall survival using objective response rate for anti-PD1/PDL1 therapy development

In oncology anti-PD1 / PDL1 therapy development for solid tumors, objective response rate (ORR) is commonly used clinical endpoint for early phase study decision making, while progression free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) are widely used for late phase study decision making. Developing predictive models to late phase outcomes such as median PFS (mPFS) and median OS (mOS) based on early phase clinical outcome ORR could inform late phase study design optimization and probability of success (POS) evaluation. In existing literature, there are ORR / mPFS / mOS association and surrogacy investigations with limited number of included clinical trials. In this paper, without establishing surrogacy, we attempt to predict late phase survival (mPFS and mOS) based on early efficacy ORR and optimize late phase trial design for anti-PD1 / PDL1 therapy development. In order to include adequate number of eligible clinical trials, we built a comprehensive quantitative clinical trial landscape database (QLD) by combining information from different sources such as clinicaltrial.gov, publications, company press releases for relevant indications and therapies. We developed a generalizable algorithm to systematically extract structured data for scientific accuracy and completeness. Finally, more than 150 late phase clinical trials were identified for ORR / mPFS (ORR / mOS) predictive model development while existing literature included at most 50 trials. A tree-based machine learning regression model has been derived to account for ORR / mPFS (ORR / mOS) relationship heterogeneity across tumor type, stage, line of therapy, treatment class and borrow strength simultaneously when homogeneity persists. The proposed method ensures that the predictive model is robust and have explicit structure for clinical interpretation. Through cross validation, the average predictive mean square error of the proposed model is competitive to random forest and extreme gradient boosting methods and outperforms commonly used additive or interaction linear regression models. An example application of the proposed ORR / mPFS (ORR / mOS) predictive model on late phase trial POS evaluation for anti-PD1 / PDL1 combination therapy was illustrated.

Hybridizing mechanistic mathematical modeling with deep learning methods to predict individual cancer patient survival after immune checkpoint inhibitor therapy

We present a study where predictive mechanistic modeling is used in combination with deep learning methods to predict individual patient survival probabilities under immune checkpoint inhibitor (ICI) therapy. This hybrid approach enables prediction based on both measures that are calculable from mechanistic models (but may not be directly measurable in the clinic) and easily measurable quantities or characteristics (that are not always readily incorporated into predictive mechanistic models). The mechanistic model we have applied here can predict tumor response from CT or MRI imaging based on key mechanisms underlying checkpoint inhibitor therapy, and in the present work, its parameters were combined with readily-available clinical measures from 93 patients into a hybrid training set for a deep learning time-to-event predictive model. Analysis revealed that training an artificial neural network with both mechanistic modeling-derived and clinical measures achieved higher per-patient predictive accuracy based on event-time concordance, Brier score, and negative binomial log-likelihood-based criteria than when only mechanistic model-derived values or only clinical data were used. Feature importance analysis revealed that both clinical and model-derived parameters play prominent roles in neural network decision making, and in increasing prediction accuracy, further supporting the advantage of our hybrid approach. We anticipate that many existing mechanistic models may be hybridized with deep learning methods in a similar manner to improve predictive accuracy through addition of additional data that may not be readily implemented in mechanistic descriptions.

Time to strategy failure and treatment beyond progression in pretreated metastatic renal cell carcinoma patients receiving nivolumab: post-hoc analysis of the Meet-URO 15 study

BACKGROUND

Immunotherapies exhibit peculiar cancer response patterns in contrast to chemotherapy and targeted therapy. Some patients experience disease response after initial progression or durable responses after treatment interruption. In clinical practice, immune checkpoint inhibitors may be continued after radiological progression if clinical benefit is observed. As a result, estimating progression-free survival (PFS) based on the first disease progression may not accurately reflect the actual benefit of immunotherapy.

METHODS

The Meet-URO 15 study was a multicenter retrospective analysis of 571 pretreated metastatic renal cell carcinoma (mRCC) patients receiving nivolumab. Time to strategy failure (TSF) was defined as the interval from the start of immunotherapy to definitive disease progression or death. This post-hoc analysis compared TSF to PFS and assess the response and survival outcomes between patients treatated beyond progression (TBP) and non-TBP. Moreover, we evaluated the prognostic accuracy of the Meet-URO score versus the International Metastatic Renal Cell Carcinoma Database Consortium (IMDC) score based on TSF and PFS.

RESULTS

Overall, 571 mRCC patients were included in the analysis. Median TSF was 8.6 months (95% CI: 7.0 - 10.1), while mPFS was 7.0 months (95% CI: 5.7 - 8.5). TBP patients (N = 93) had significantly longer TSF (16.3 vs 5.5 months; p < 0.001) and overall survival (OS) (34.8 vs 17.9 months; p < 0.001) but similar PFS compared to non-TBP patients. In TBP patients, a median delay of 9.6 months (range: 6.7-16.3) from the first to the definitive disease progression was observed, whereas non-TBP patients had overlapped median TSF and PFS (5.5 months). Moreover, TBP patients had a trend toward a higher overall response rate (33.3% vs 24.3%; p = 0.075) and disease control rate (61.3% vs 55.5%; p = 0.31). Finally, in the whole population the Meet-URO score outperformed the IMDC score in predicting both TSF (c-index: 0.63 vs 0.59) and PFS (0.62 vs 0.59).

CONCLUSION

We found a 2-month difference between mTSF and mPFS in mRCC patients receiving nivolumab. However, TBP patients had better outcomes, including significantly longer TSF and OS than non-TBP patients. The Meet-URO score is a reliable predictor of TSF and PFS.

Surrogate endpoints for overall survival in randomized clinical trials testing immune checkpoint inhibitors: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Introduction

There is debate on which are the best surrogate endpoint and metric to capture treatment effect on overall survival (OS) in RCTs testing immune-checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs).

Methods

We systematically searched for RCTs testing ICIs in patients with advanced solid tumors. Inclusion criteria were: RCTs i) assessing PD-(L)1 and CTLA-4 inhibitors either as monotherapy or in combination with another ICI, and/or targeted therapy, and/or chemotherapy, in patients with advanced solid tumors; ii) randomizing at least 100 patients. We performed a meta-analysis of RCTs to compare the surrogacy value of PFS and modified-PFS (mPFS) for OS in RCTs testing ICIs, when the treatment effect is measured by the hazard ratio (HR) for OS, and by the HR and the ratio of restricted mean survival time (rRMST) for PFS and mPFS.

Results

61 RCTs (67 treatment comparisons and 36,034 patients) were included in the analysis. In comparisons testing ICI plus chemotherapy, HRPFS and HRmPFS both had a strong surrogacy value (R2 = 0.74 and R2 = 0.81, respectively). In comparisons testing ICI as monotherapy, HRPFS was the best surrogate, although having a moderate correlation (R2 = 0.58). In comparisons testing ICI plus other treatment(s), the associations were very weak for all the surrogate endpoints and treatment effect measures, with R2 ranging from 0.01 to 0.22.

Conclusion

In RCTs testing ICIs, the value of potential surrogates for HROS was strongly affected by the type of treatment(s) tested. The evidence available supports HRPFS as the best surrogate, and disproves the use of alternative endpoints, such as the mPFS, or treatment effect measures, such as the RMST.

Correlation of multiple endpoints in the first-line chemotherapy of advanced gastric cancer: Pooled analysis of individual patient data from Japanese Phase III trials

BACKGROUND

Individual-level surrogates are important for management in patients treated for advanced gastric cancer (AGC). This study aimed to comprehensively investigate the correlation of multiple clinical endpoints in the first-line chemotherapy of AGC.

METHODS

Individual patient data (IPD) were collected from four Japanese Phase III trials comparing S-1-based first-line chemotherapies (SPIRITS, START, GC0301/TOP-002, and G-SOX trials). Patients without Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors (RECIST)-based radiological assessments were excluded. Spearman's rank correlation coefficient was tested for correlation among overall survival (OS), progression-free survival (PFS), and postprogression survival (PPS). OS, PFS, and PPS were compared between responders (best response: complete response or partial response) and nonresponders (best response: stable disease or progressive disease).

RESULTS

The study included a total of 1492 patients. Eighty percent of the patients (n = 1190) received subsequent chemotherapies after the failure of each trial's treatment protocol. PFS moderately correlated with OS (Spearman correlation coefficient = 0.66, p < 0.005), whereas the correlation between PPS and OS was strong (Spearman correlation coefficient = 0.87, p < 0.005). Responders had significantly longer OS (median, 17.7 vs. 9.1 months, p < 0.005), PFS (median, 6.9 vs. 2.8 months, p < 0.005), and PPS (median, 10.5 vs. 6.0 months, p < 0.005) than nonresponders.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results reacknowledged the mild surrogacy of PFS and importance of postprogression treatments in patients with AGC receiving first-line chemotherapy. Consistent longer survival outcomes in better RECIST categories suggested that tumor response might be a useful individual-level surrogate.

Model-based meta-analysis of non-small cell lung cancer with standard of care PD-1 inhibitors and chemotherapy for early development decision making

Single-arm cohorts/trials are often used in early phase oncology programs to support preliminary clinical activity assessments for investigational products, administered alone or in combination with standard of care (SOC) agents. Benchmarking clinical activity of those combinations against other treatments, including SOC, requires indirect comparisons against external trials, which presents challenges including cross-study differences in trial populations/other factors. To facilitate such nonrandomized comparisons, we developed a comprehensive model-based meta-analysis (MBMA) framework to quantitatively adjust for factors related to efficacy in metastatic non-small cell lung cancer (mNSCLC). Data were derived from 15 published studies assessing key programmed cell death protein-1 (PD-1) inhibitors pembrolizumab (n = 8) and nivolumab (n = 7), representing current SOC in mNSCLC. In the first stage, a mixed-effects logistic regression model for overall response rate (ORR) was developed accounting for effects of various population covariates on ORR. The ORR model results indicated an odds ratio (OR) of 1.02 for squamous versus non-squamous histology and OR of 1.20 for PD-ligand 1 tumor proportion score (TPS) per every 10% increase of TPS level. Next, a nonparametric mixed-effects model for overall survival (OS) was developed with ORR/other clinical covariates as input. Subsequently, MBMA simulations of relevant hypothetical scenarios involving single-arm trial design predicted OS hazard ratios as a function of ORR with matched patient characteristics. Findings from this MBMA and derived parameter estimates can be generally applied by the reader as a framework for interpreting efficacy data from early phase trials to support ORR-based go/no-go decisions and futility rules, illustrated through examples in this report.

Intermediate endpoints as surrogates for outcomes in cancer immunotherapy: a systematic review and meta-analysis of phase 3 trials

Background

Cancer immunotherapy shows unique efficacy kinetics that differs from conventional treatment. These characteristics may lead to the prolongation of trial duration, hence reliable surrogate endpoints are urgently needed. We aimed to systematically evaluate the study-level performance of commonly reported intermediate clinical endpoints for surrogacy in cancer immunotherapy.

Methods

We searched the Embase, PubMed, and Cochrane databases, between database inception and October 18, 2022, for phase 3 randomised trials investigating the efficacy of immunotherapy in patients with advanced solid tumours. An updated search was done on July, 15, 2023. No language restrictions were used. Eligible trials had to set overall survival (OS) as the primary or co-primary endpoint and report at least one intermediate clinical endpoint including objective response rate (ORR), disease control rate (DCR), progression-free survival (PFS), and 1-year overall survival. Other key inclusion and exclusion criteria included: (1) adult patients (>18 years old) with advanced solid tumour; (2) no immunotherapy conducted in the control arms; (3) follow-up is long enough to achieve OS; (4) data should be public available. A two-stage meta-analytic approach was conducted to evaluate the magnitude of the association between these intermediate endpoints and OS. A surrogate was identified if the coefficient of determination (R2) was 0.7 or greater. Leave-one-out cross-validation and pre-defined subgroup analysis were conducted to examine the heterogeneity. Potential publication bias was evaluated using the Egger's and Begg's tests. This trial was registered with PROSPERO, number CRD42022381648.

Findings

52,342 patients with 15 types of tumours from 77 phase 3 studies were included. ORR (R2 = 0.11; 95% CI, 0.00-0.24), DCR (R2 = 0.01; 95% CI, 0.00-0.01), and PFS (R2 = 0.40; 95% CI, 0.23-0.56) showed weak associations with OS. However, a strong correlation was observed between 1-year survival and clinical outcome (R2 = 0.74; 95% CI, 0.64-0.83). These associations remained relatively consistent across pre-defined subgroups stratified based on tumour types, masking methods, line of treatments, drug targets, treatment strategies, and follow-up durations. No significant heterogeneities or publication bias were identified.

Interpretation

1-year milestone survival was the only identified surrogacy endpoint for outcomes in cancer immunotherapy. Ongoing investigations and development of new endpoints and incorporation of biomarkers are needed to identify potential surrogate markers that can be more robust than 1-year survival. This work may provide important references in assisting the design and interpretation of future clinical trials, and constitute complementary information in drafting clinical practice guidelines.

Funding

None.

A longitudinal circulating tumor DNA-based model associated with survival in metastatic non-small-cell lung cancer

One of the great challenges in therapeutic oncology is determining who might achieve survival benefits from a particular therapy. Studies on longitudinal circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) dynamics for the prediction of survival have generally been small or nonrandomized. We assessed ctDNA across 5 time points in 466 non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients from the randomized phase 3 IMpower150 study comparing chemotherapy-immune checkpoint inhibitor (chemo-ICI) combinations and used machine learning to jointly model multiple ctDNA metrics to predict overall survival (OS). ctDNA assessments through cycle 3 day 1 of treatment enabled risk stratification of patients with stable disease (hazard ratio (HR) = 3.2 (2.0-5.3), P < 0.001; median 7.1 versus 22.3 months for high- versus low-intermediate risk) and with partial response (HR = 3.3 (1.7-6.4), P < 0.001; median 8.8 versus 28.6 months). The model also identified high-risk patients in an external validation cohort from the randomized phase 3 OAK study of ICI versus chemo in NSCLC (OS HR = 3.73 (1.83-7.60), P = 0.00012). Simulations of clinical trial scenarios employing our ctDNA model suggested that early ctDNA testing outperforms early radiographic imaging for predicting trial outcomes. Overall, measuring ctDNA dynamics during treatment can improve patient risk stratification and may allow early differentiation between competing therapies during clinical trials.

Immune-related adverse events as potential surrogates of immune checkpoint inhibitors' efficacy: a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized studies

BACKGROUND

Immune-related adverse events (irAEs) are frequently reported during immune checkpoint inhibitor (ICI) therapy and are associated with long-term outcomes. It is unknown if the irAE occurrence is a valid surrogate of ICIs' efficacy.

METHODS

We identified articles reporting the results of randomized trials of experimental ICI therapy in solid tumors with a systematic search. The control arms could be placebo, cytotoxic/targeted therapy, or ICI therapy. We extracted the hazard ratios for overall survival (OS) with the number of OS events per arm and the number and percentages of overall and specific irAEs of grade 1-2 and grade 3-4 per arm. We estimated the treatment effect on the potential surrogate outcome with the odds ratio of the irAE rate between the experimental and the control arm. The statistical analysis consisted of weighted linear regression on a logarithmic scale between treatment effects on irAE rate and treatment effects on OS.

RESULTS

Sixty-two randomized trials were included for a total of 79 contrasts and 42 247 patients. The analyses found no significant association between the treatment effects for overall grade 1-2 or grade 3-4 irAE rates or specific (skin, gastrointestinal, endocrine) irAE rates. In the non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) trial subset, we observed a negative association between treatment effects on overall grade 1-2 irAEs and treatment effects on OS in studies with patients selected for programmed death-ligand 1 expression (R² = 0.55; 95% confidence interval 0.20-0.95; R = -0.69). In the melanoma trial subset, a negative association was shown between treatment effects on gastrointestinal grade 3-4 irAEs and treatment effects on OS in trials without an ICI-based control arm (R² = 0.77; 95% confidence interval 0.24-0.99; R = -0.89).

CONCLUSIONS

We found low-strength correlations between the ICI therapy effects on overall or specific irAE rates and the treatment effects on OS in several cancer types.

Identification on surrogating overall survival with progression-free survival of first-line immunochemotherapy in advanced esophageal squamous cell carcinoma-an exploration of surrogate endpoint

BACKGROUND

Overall survival (OS) is the gold standard to assess novel therapeutics to treat cancer. However, to identify early efficacy and speed up drug approval, trials have used progression-free survival (PFS) as a surrogate endpoint (SE). Herein, we aimed to examine if PFS could function as an OS surrogate in advanced Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma (ESCC) treated with first-line immunochemotherapy.

METHODS

Two hundred ninety-two advanced ESCC patients treated using inhibitors of PD-1/PD-L1 + chemotherapy or chemotherapy alone were collected. In addition, six phase III randomized clinical trials were eligible for inclusion. Bayesian normal-induced-copula-estimation model in retrospective patient data and regression analysis in the published trial data were used to determine the PFS-OS correlation.

RESULTS

PFS correlated moderately with OS in the retrospective cohort (Kendall's Tau = 0.684, τ = 0.436). In trial-level, treatments effects for PFS correlated weakly with those for OS in intention-to-treat population (R2 = 0.436, adj.R2 = 0.249, P > 0.05) and in PD-L1-enriched population (R2 = 0.072). In arm-level, median PFS also correlated weakly with median OS. Moreover, analysis of the retrospective cohort demonstrated that the annual death risk after progression in the continued immunotherapy group was considerably lower than that in the discontinued group.

CONCLUSION

In trials of anti-PD-1 agents to treat advanced ESCC, the current results provide only weak support for PFS as an OS surrogate; OS cannot be substituted completely by PFS in these cases. The results also suggest that qualified patients with advanced ESCC might benefit from continuous immunotherapy beyond progression to achieve a decreased risk of death.

Tumor Response, Disease Control, and Progression-Free Survival as Surrogate Endpoints in Trials Evaluating Immune Checkpoint Inhibitors in Advanced Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer: Study- and Patient-Level Analyses

Background: To assess the usefulness of tumor response and progression-free survival (PFS) as surrogates for overall survival (OS) in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) trials with immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICI), which have not been confirmed. Methods: Patient- and trial-level analyses were performed. The Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors was preferred for image assessment. For trial-level analysis, surrogacy was assessed using the weighted rank correlation coefficient (r) following "reciprocal duplication." This method duplicates all plots as if the experimental and the reference arms were switched. Monte Carlo simulations were performed for evaluating this method. Results: A total of 3312 cases were included in the patient-level analysis. Patients without response (first line (1L): hazard ratio (HR) 1.95, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.71-2.23; second or later line (2L-): HR 4.22, 95% CI 3.22-5.53), without disease control (1L: HR 4.34, 95% CI 3.82-4.94; 2L-: HR 3.36, 95% CI 2.96-3.81), or with progression during the first year (1L: HR 3.42, 95% CI 2.60-4.50; 2L-: HR 3.33, 95% CI 2.64-4.20), had a higher risk of death. Systematic searches identified 38 RCTs including 17,515 patients for the study-level analysis. Odds ratio in the objective response rate (N = 38 × 2, r = -0.87) and HR in PFS (N = 38 × 2, r = 0.85) showed an excellent association with HR in overall survival, while this effect was not observed in the disease control rate (N = 26 × 2, r = -0.03). Conclusions: Objective response rate and PFS are reasonable surrogates for OS in NSCLC trials with ICI.

Optimal Choice as First-Line Therapy for Patients with Triple-Negative Breast Cancer: A Bayesian Network Meta-Analysis

To identify the advantageous therapy as the first-line treatment for patients with triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC). Randomized controlled trials were searched for on Medline, Embase, ClinicalTrials.gov, and the Cochrane Library between January 2001 and December 2021. The primary endpoint was progression-free survival (PFS) and secondary endpoints were overall survival (OS) and treatment-related adverse events (TRAEs). A Bayesian framework was applied to facilitate indirect comparisons, of which the outcomes were presented using cumulative ranking curve (SUCRA) values, synthesized hazard ratio, risk ratio, and 95% credible interval. A total of 3140 patients were identified. Pooled results of PFS revealed that chemotherapy plus AKT inhibitors (AKTi) was likely the most effective therapy among enrolled therapies (SUCRA = 91.6%), of which the result remained consistent in comparative analysis for OS. In addition, no significant difference was detected between PD-1/PD-L1 antibodies in patients, whereas the PD-1 inhibitors (PD-1i) regimen was advantageous over PD-L1 inhibitor (PD-L1i) therapy for PD-L1 positive TNBC. Concerning TRAEs, an apparent heterogeneity associated with safety profiles were denoted among enrolled agents. Chemotherapy plus AKTi was the most effective therapy with comparable safety profiles. Chemotherapy plus the anti-PD-1 regimen was advantageous over the combination therapy based on the PD-L1 blockade.

Validating ORR and PFS as surrogate endpoints in phase II and III clinical trials for NSCLC patients: difference exists in the strength of surrogacy in various trial settings

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to systematically validate the performance of surrogate endpoints in phase II and III clinical trials for NSCLC patients under various trial settings.

METHODS

A literature search retrieved all registered phase II and III trials of NSCLC patients in which OS, with at least one of ORR and PFS, were reported. Associations between surrogate and true endpoints were assessed on two levels. On the arm level, three pairs of correlations, i.e., ORR vs. median OS, ORR vs. median PFS, and median PFS vs. median OS, were analysed using Spearman's rho. On the trial level, similarly, three pairs of correlations, i.e., ΔORR vs. HR of OS, ΔORR vs. HR of PFS, and HR of PFS vs. HR of OS, were analysed using Spearman's rho and weighted linear regression model respectively. Finally, sensitivity analyses were performed to explore surrogacy under various trial settings.

RESULTS

At arm level, three pairs of correlations are all high (Spearman's rho = 0.700, 0.831, 0.755, respectively). At trial level, there is a low correlation between ΔORR and HR of OS, a high correlation between ΔORR and HR of PFS and a moderate correlation between HR of PFS and HR of OS (Spearman's rho = 0.462, 0.764, 0.584, respectively). In the sensitivity analysis, we find correlations between surrogate and true endpoints vary by different trial settings. It is noteworthy that the strength of surrogacy of these intermediate endpoints in targeted therapy is greater than that in immunotherapy.

CONCLUSION

According to the arm-level and trial level-analysis, we suggest that in phase II and III trials of targeted therapy and immunotherapy for NSCLC patients: 1) ORR lacks validity for the surrogacy of OS, excluding in first-line therapy, and 2) ORR may be an appropriate surrogate endpoint for PFS, and 3) PFS may be considered a modest surrogacy for OS, with better performance in first-line therapy trials. Moreover, to provide more convincing evidence of surrogacy of the surrogate endpoints, patient-level analyses are in desperate need.

Durvalumab plus tremelimumab in advanced or metastatic soft tissue and bone sarcomas: a single-centre phase 2 trial

BACKGROUND

Few standard treatment options are available for patients with metastatic sarcomas. We did this trial to evaluate the efficacy, safety, and changes in the tumour microenvironment for durvalumab, an anti-PD-L1 drug, and tremelimumab, an anti-CTLA-4 drug, across multiple sarcoma subtypes.

METHODS

In this single-centre phase 2 trial, done at The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center (Houston, TX USA), patients aged 18 years or older with advanced or metastatic sarcoma with an Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status of 0 or 1 who had received at least one previous line of systemic therapy were enrolled in disease subtype-specific groups (liposarcoma, leiomyosarcoma, angiosarcoma, undifferentiated pleomorphic sarcoma, synovial sarcoma, osteosarcoma, alveolar soft-part sarcoma, chordoma, and other sarcomas). Patients received 1500 mg intravenous durvalumab and 75 mg intravenous tremelimumab for four cycles, followed by durvalumab alone every 4 weeks for up to 12 months. The primary endpoint was progression-free survival at 12 weeks in the intention-to-treat population (all patients who received at least one dose of treatment). Safety was also analysed in the intention-to-treat population. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02815995, and is completed.

FINDINGS

Between Aug 17, 2016, and April 9, 2018, 62 patients were enrolled, of whom 57 (92%) received treatment and were included in the intention-to-treat population. With a median follow-up of 37·2 months (IQR 1·8-10·1), progression-free survival at 12 weeks was 49% (95% CI 36-61). 21 grade 3-4 treatment-related adverse events were reported, the most common of which were increased lipase (four [7%] of 57 patients), colitis (three [5%] patients), and pneumonitis (three [5%] patients). Nine (16%) patients had a treatment related serious adverse event. One patient had grade 5 pneumonitis and colitis.

INTERPRETATION

The combination of durvalumab and tremelimumab is an active treatment regimen for advanced or metastatic sarcoma and merits evaluation in specific subsets in future trials.

FUNDING

AstraZeneca.

Correlations between objective response rate and survival-based endpoints in first-line advanced non-small cell lung Cancer: A systematic review and meta-analysis

INTRODUCTION

The study objective was to estimate the relationship between objective response and survival-based endpoints by drug class, in first-line advanced non-small cell lung cancer (aNSCLC).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A systematic literature review identified randomized controlled trials (RCTs) of first-line aNSCLC therapies reporting overall survival (OS), progression-free survival (PFS), and/or objective response rate (ORR). Trial-level and arm-level linear regression models were fit, accounting for inclusion of immunotherapy (IO)-based or chemotherapy-only RCT arms. Weighted least squares-based R² were calculated along with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). For the main trial-level analysis of OS vs. ORR, the surrogate threshold effect was estimated. Exploratory analyses involved further stratification by: IO monotherapy vs. chemotherapy, dual-IO therapy vs. chemotherapy, and IO + chemotherapy vs. chemotherapy.

RESULTS

From 17,040 records, 57 RCTs were included. In the main analysis, trial-level associations between OS and ORR were statistically significant in both the IO-based and chemotherapy-only strata, with R² estimates of 0.54 (95% CI: 0.26-0.81) and 0.34 (0.05-0.63), respectively. OS gains associated with a given ORR benefit were statistically significantly larger within IO vs. chemotherapy comparisons compared to chemotherapy vs. chemotherapy comparisons (p < 0.001). Exploratory analysis suggested a trend by IO type: for a given change in ORR, 'pure' IO (IO monotherapy and dual-IO) vs. chemotherapy RCTs tended to have a larger OS benefit than IO + chemotherapy vs. chemotherapy RCTs. For ORR vs. PFS, trial-level correlations were strong in the IO-based vs. chemotherapy (R² = 0.84; 0.72-0.95), and chemotherapy vs. chemotherapy strata (R² = 0.69; 0.49-0.88). For OS vs. PFS, correlations were moderate in both strata (R² = 0.49; 0.20-0.78 and R² = 0.49; 0.23-0.76).

CONCLUSION

The larger OS benefit per unit of ORR benefit in IO-based RCTs compared to chemotherapy-only RCTs provides an important addition to the established knowledge regarding the durability and depth of response in IO-based treatments.

Sample size calculation for randomized selection trials with a time-to-event endpoint and a margin of practical equivalence

Selection trials are used to compare potentially active experimental treatments without a control arm. While sample size calculation methods exist for binary endpoints, no such methods are available for time‐to‐event endpoints, even though these are ubiquitous in clinical trials. Recent selection trials have begun using progression‐free survival as their primary endpoint, but have dichotomized it at a specific time point for sample size calculation and analysis. This changes the clinical question and may reduce power to detect a difference between the arms. In this article, we develop the theory for sample size calculation in selection trials where the time‐to‐event endpoint is assumed to follow an exponential or Weilbull distribution. We provide a free web application for sample size calculation, as well as an R package, that researchers can use in the design of their studies.

Surrogate Endpoints for Overall Survival in Immune-Oncology Trials of Advanced Gastro-Esophageal Carcinoma

Background

We aimed to assess whether the Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors (RECIST)-based objective response rate (ORR), disease control rate (DCR) and progression-free survival (PFS) could serve as surrogate endpoints for overall survival (OS) in immune-oncology (IO) trials of advanced gastro-esophageal (GE) carcinoma.

Methods

Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) of IO that reported RECIST-based endpoints and OS in advanced GE carcinoma were screened. Surrogacy of endpoints for OS was assessed based on the correlation between endpoints with OS (arm-level), and between treatment effects on endpoints (trial-level). The correlations were quantified by Pearson correlation coefficient (R). Leave-one-out cross-validation was used to assess the prediction accuracy of surrogate model.

Results

Seventeen RCTs (9,657 subjects) with 20 comparisons were included. The correlations between DCR and OS were not strong at arm- (R = 0.80) and trial-levels (R = 0.45), but strong correlations between ORR (R = 0.91), PFS (R = 0.89) and OS at arm-level were observed. Treatment effect on ORR and PFS (both R = 0.71) was moderately correlated with treatment effect on OS. Leave-one-out cross-validation approach further validated the surrogacy of PFS. Our analysis showed that 3-month PFS could reliably predict 6-month OS, 6-month PFS could reliably predict 12-month OS, and 12-month PFS could reliably predict 18-month OS. The conservative minimum threshold effect of HRPFS was 0.73.

Conclusions

PFS may be the appropriate surrogate for OS in IO trials of GE carcinoma. A conservative minimum threshold effect of HRPFS ≤ 0.73 has the potential to predict a significant improvement in OS.

Modelling approaches for histology-independent cancer drugs to inform NICE appraisals: a systematic review and decision-framework

BACKGROUND

The first histology-independent marketing authorisation in Europe was granted in 2019. This was the first time that a cancer treatment was approved based on a common biomarker rather than the location in the body at which the tumour originated. This research aims to explore the implications for National Institute for Health and Care Excellence appraisals.

METHODS

Targeted reviews were undertaken to determine the type of evidence that is likely to be available at the point of marketing authorisation and the analyses required to support National Institute for Health and Care Excellence appraisals. Several challenges were identified concerning the design and conduct of trials for histology-independent products, the greater levels of heterogeneity within the licensed population and the use of surrogate end points. We identified approaches to address these challenges by reviewing key statistical literature that focuses on the design and analysis of histology-independent trials and by undertaking a systematic review to evaluate the use of response end points as surrogate outcomes for survival end points. We developed a decision framework to help to inform approval and research policies for histology-independent products. The framework explored the uncertainties and risks associated with different approval policies, including the role of further data collection, pricing schemes and stratified decision-making.

RESULTS

We found that the potential for heterogeneity in treatment effects, across tumour types or other characteristics, is likely to be a central issue for National Institute for Health and Care Excellence appraisals. Bayesian hierarchical methods may serve as a useful vehicle to assess the level of heterogeneity across tumours and to estimate the pooled treatment effects for each tumour, which can inform whether or not the assumption of homogeneity is reasonable. Our review suggests that response end points may not be reliable surrogates for survival end points. However, a surrogate-based modelling approach, which captures all relevant uncertainty, may be preferable to the use of immature survival data. Several additional sources of heterogeneity were identified as presenting potential challenges to National Institute for Health and Care Excellence appraisal, including the cost of testing, baseline risk, quality of life and routine management costs. We concluded that a range of alternative approaches will be required to address different sources of heterogeneity to support National Institute for Health and Care Excellence appraisals. An exemplar case study was developed to illustrate the nature of the assessments that may be required.

CONCLUSIONS

Adequately designed and analysed basket studies that assess the homogeneity of outcomes and allow borrowing of information across baskets, where appropriate, are recommended. Where there is evidence of heterogeneity in treatment effects and estimates of cost-effectiveness, consideration should be given to optimised recommendations. Routine presentation of the scale of the consequences of heterogeneity and decision uncertainty may provide an important additional approach to the assessments specified in the current National Institute for Health and Care Excellence methods guide.

FURTHER RESEARCH

Further exploration of Bayesian hierarchical methods could help to inform decision-makers on whether or not there is sufficient evidence of homogeneity to support pooled analyses. Further research is also required to determine the appropriate basis for apportioning genomic testing costs where there are multiple targets and to address the challenges of uncontrolled Phase II studies, including the role and use of surrogate end points.

FUNDING

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Evidence Synthesis programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 25, No. 76. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Three-year outcomes of the randomized phase III SEIPLUS trial of extensive intraoperative peritoneal lavage for locally advanced gastric cancer

Whether extensive intraoperative peritoneal lavage (EIPL) after gastrectomy is beneficial to patients with locally advanced gastric cancer (AGC) is not clear. This phase 3, multicenter, parallel-group, prospective randomized study (NCT02745509) recruits patients between April 2016 and November 2017. Eligible patients who had been histologically proven AGC with T3/4NxM0 stage are randomly assigned (1:1) to either surgery alone or surgery plus EIPL. The results of the two groups are analyzed in the intent-to-treat population. A total of 662 patients with AGC (329 patients in the surgery alone group, and 333 in the surgery plus EIPL group) are included in the study. The primary endpoint is 3-year overall survival (OS). The secondary endpoints include 3-year disease free survival (DFS), 3-year peritoneal recurrence-free survival (reported in this manuscript) and 30-day postoperative complication and mortality (previously reported). The trial meets pre-specified endpoints. Estimated 3-year OS rates are 68.5% in the surgery alone group and 70.6% in the surgery plus EIPL group (log-rank p = 0.77). 3-year DFS rates are 61.2% in the surgery alone group and 66.0% in the surgery plus EIPL group (log-rank p = 0.24). The pattern of disease recurrence is similar in the two groups. In conclusion, EIPL does not improve the 3-year survival rate in AGC patients.

Systemic treatment of hepatocellular carcinoma: An EASL position paper

The last 5 years have witnessed relevant advances in the systemic treatment of hepatocellular carcinoma. New data have emerged since the development of the EASL Clinical Practice Guidelines on the management of hepatocellular carcinoma in 2018. Drugs licensed in some countries now include 4 oral multi-tyrosine kinase inhibitors (sorafenib, lenvatinib, regorafenib and cabozantinib), 1 anti-angiogenic antibody (ramucirumab) and 4 immune checkpoint inhibitors, alone or in combination (atezolizumab in combination with bevacizumab, ipilimumab in combination with nivolumab, nivolumab and pembrolizumab in monotherapy). Prolonged survival in excess of 2 years can be expected in most patients with sensitive tumours and well-preserved liver function that renders them fit for sequential therapies. With different choices available in any given setting, the robustness of the evidence of efficacy and a correct matching of the safety profile of a given agent with patient characteristics and preferences are key in making sound therapeutic decisions. The recommendations in this document amend the previous EASL Clinical Practice Guidelines and aim to help clinicians provide the best possible care for patients today. In view of several ongoing and promising trials, further advances in systemic therapy of hepatocellular carcinoma are foreseen in the near future and these recommendations will have to be updated regularly.

The Optimal Second-Line Systemic Treatment Model for Recurrent and/or Metastatic Head and Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma: A Bayesian Network Meta-Analysis

Background

The optimal second-line systemic treatment model for recurrent and/or metastatic head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (R/M HNSCC) remains controversial. A Bayesian network meta-analysis (NMA) was performed to address this issue with regard to efficacy and toxicity.

Methods

By searching MEDLINE (via PubMed), Embase, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials and Web of Science, we extracted eligible studies. Efficacy, represented as overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS), and overall toxicity, represented as ≥ grade 3 severe acute events (sAE), were assessed to compare the following 7 treatment models through an NMA: standard-of-care therapy (SoC), single targeted therapy different from SoC (ST), double targeted therapy (DT), targeted therapy combined with chemotherapy (T+C), single immune checkpoint inhibitor therapy (SI), double immune checkpoint inhibitor therapy (DI) and single chemotherapy different from SoC (SC). Rank probabilities according to the values of the surface under the cumulative ranking curve (SUCRA) were separately determined for efficacy and toxicity.

Results

In total, 5285 patients from 24 eligible studies were ultimately screened, with 5184, 4532 and 4026 involved in the NMA of OS, PFS and sAE, respectively. All qualifying studies were absent from first-line immune checkpoint inhibitor therapy. In terms of OS, SI was superior to the other treatments, followed by DI, ST, T+C, SoC, DT and SC. Other than SI and SC, all treatments tended to be consistent, with hazard ratios (HRs) close to 1 between groups. For PFS, ST ranked first, while DT ranked last. For the toxicity profiles, compared with the other models, SI resulted in the lowest incidences of sAE, with statistical significance over SoC (odds ratio [OR] 0.31, 95% credible interval [CrI] 0.11 to 0.90), ST (OR 0.23, 95% CrI 0.06 to 0.86) and DT (OR 0.11, 95% CrI 0.02 to 0.53), while DT was the worst. When the SUCRA values of OS and sAE were combined, a cluster plot illustrated the superiority of SI, which demonstrated the best OS and tolerability toward sAE.

Conclusion

For R/M HNSCC patients without immune checkpoint inhibitors in the first-line setting, SI may serve as the optimal second-line systemic treatment model, demonstrating the best OS and least sAE.

Efficacy and tolerability of immunotherapy in advanced nasopharyngeal carcinoma with or without chemotherapy: a meta-analysis

INTRODUCTION

Evidence of programmed death-1 inhibitors in nasopharyngeal carcinoma has been accumulated. However, previous clinical studies were basically small sample size.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to summarize existing studies to comprehensively compare programmed death-1 inhibitors in nasopharyngeal carcinoma with or without chemotherapy.

METHODS

Different databases were searched for full-text publications with a programmed death-1 inhibitor with or without chemotherapy. No study-to-study heterogeneity was detected, and fixed-effect models were applied to synthesize data.

RESULTS

Seven studies were included. The mean progression-free survival duration of programmed death-1 inhibitors treatment was 4.66 months. The 6 month progression-free survival rate was 50%, however, the12 month progression-free survival rate fell to 27%. Comparing with programmed death-1 inhibitor monotherapy, the objective response rate was higher in combination therapy (pooled RR=2.90, 95% CI: 2.07-4.08). The partial response rate was higher in patients receiving programmed death-1 in association with chemotherapy (pooled RR=3.09, 95% CI: 2.15-4.46), In contrast, the progressive disease rate was lower in combination therapy group (pooled RR=0.06, 95% CI: 0.01-0.31). Stable disease condition was comparable (pooled RR=0.90, 95% CI: 0.50-1.64) with or without chemotherapy. Programmed death-1 single use or combined with chemotherapy did not influence the total adverse events occurrence (pooled RR=0.99, 95% CI: 0.93-1.05). However, combination therapy could increase the risk of serious adverse events such as anemia, thrombocytopenia, and neutropenia.

CONCLUSION

The present study summarized the efficacy and safety of programmed death-1 inhibitors in nasopharyngeal carcinoma. Combination therapy showed higher anti-tumor activity except for higher risk of myelosuppression.

Prognostic impact of early tumor shrinkage and depth of response in patients with microsatellite instability-high metastatic colorectal cancer receiving immune checkpoint inhibitors

BACKGROUND

Immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) are the new standard of care in microsatellite instability-high (MSI-H)/deficient mismatch repair (dMMR) metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC). Since tumor response dynamic parameters already shown a strong association with survival outcomes in patients with mCRC treated with first-line therapy, we investigated the association of early tumor shrinkage (ETS) and depth of response (DoR) in patients with MSI-H/dMMR mCRC treated with ICIs.

METHODS

This is a retrospective, multicenter, cohort study in patients with dMMR and/or MSI-high mCRC treated with ICIs (anti-PD-1/PD-L1 with or without anti-CTLA-4 agents) with measurable disease and at least one post-baseline radiological disease reassessment. The Kaplan-Meier method and Cox proportional-hazards regression models were used for survival analyses. A maximally selected statistics method in a Cox regression model for progression-free survival (PFS) was used to determine the optimal cut-offs for ETS and DoR.

RESULTS

We included a total of 169 patients: 116 (68.6%) were treated with anti-PD-1 monotherapy, whereas 53 (31.4%) with anti-PD-1 plus anti-CTLA-4 agents. Patients with primary progressive disease (N=37, 21.9%), experienced an extremely poor overall survival (OS) and were evaluated separately. In patients with clinical benefit, we observed a significant association between ETS and DoR with both OS and PFS, and we identified a relative reduction of at least 1% as the optimal cut-off for ETS and a relative reduction of at least 50% as the optimal cut-off for DoR.

CONCLUSIONS

ETS and DoR are important prognostic factors in patients with MSI-high mCRC treated with ICIs that might be useful to design treatment intensification/deintensification strategies. A prospective validation of both is warranted.

Exploration of modified progression-free survival as a novel surrogate endpoint for overall survival in immuno-oncology trials

BACKGROUND

Progression-free survival (PFS) exhibits suboptimal performance as the surrogate endpoint for overall survival (OS) in trials studying immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs). Here we propose a novel surrogate endpoint, modified PFS (mPFS), which omits the events of disease progression (but not deaths) within 3 months after randomization.

METHODS

PubMed, EMBASE, and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials were searched for randomized trials studying ICIs in advanced solid tumors with available PFS and OS data up to May 2020. Individual patient-level data (IPD) for PFS and OS were reconstructed for eligible trials. A simulation-based algorithm was used to match the reconstructed, disconnected PFS and OS IPD, and 1000 independent simulated datasets of matched PFS-OS IPD were generated for each trial. mPFS durations and statuses were then measured for each of the matched PFS-OS IPD. Trial-level correlation between Cox HRs for PFS or mPFS and HRs for OS was assessed using Pearson correlation coefficient (rp) weighted by trial size; patient-level correlation between PFS or mPFS and OS was assessed using Spearman's rank correlation coefficient (rs). Findings were further validated using the original IPD from two randomized ICI trials.

RESULTS

Fifty-seven ICI trials totaling 29,429 participants were included. PFS HR showed moderate correlation with OS HR (rp=0.60), and PFS was moderately correlated with OS at the patient level (median rs=0.66; range, 0.65-0.68 among the 1000 simulations). In contrast, mPFS HR achieved stronger correlation with OS HR (median rp=0.81; range, 0.77-0.84), and mPFS was more strongly correlated with OS at the patient level (median rs=0.79; range, 0.78-0.80). The superiority of mPFS over PFS remained consistent in subgroup analyses by cancer type, therapeutic regimen, and treatment setting. In both trials with the original IPD where experimental treatment significantly improved OS, mPFS successfully captured such clinical benefits whereas PFS did not.

CONCLUSIONS

mPFS outperformed PFS as the surrogate endpoint for OS in ICI trials. mPFS is worthy of further investigation as a secondary endpoint in future ICI trials.

Characterizing tumor shrinkage as a measure of clinical benefit for immune checkpoint inhibitors

BACKGROUND

We explored whether the effectiveness of immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) can be characterized by incorporating a composite of duration of response (DOR) to complement traditional Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors (RECIST) criteria for objective response rate (ORR) in an intent-to-treat (ITT) population. Furthermore, the correlation of this novel endpoint, characterized by the restricted mean time in response (RMTR), with overall survival (OS) will be examined.

METHODS

We analyzed ORR alone or in combination with DOR (RMTR) in available phase I, II, and III trials evaluating nivolumab monotherapy or in combination with ipilimumab across solid tumor types. ORR was evaluated per RECIST V.1.1. DOR was estimated using individual patient data in ITT populations regardless of RECIST response, with non-responders imputed as zero. Associations between ORR alone or RMTR and OS were evaluated in the ITT population. DOR curves were generated using the Kaplan-Meier product limit method, and 6-month RMTR, a measure of response durability, was derived from the area under the curves. For ORR and RMTR in the ITT population, the strength of association with OS was analyzed using Pearson correlation coefficients (r).

RESULTS

Nivolumab treatment was associated with longer response durations than active control in responder and ITT populations. Similarly, ORR and RMTR were both significantly correlated with OS (ORR vs OS: r=0.684, p=0.02; RMTR vs OS: r=0.695, p=0.018).

CONCLUSIONS

Combining ORR and DOR (RMTR) to objectively characterize tumor shrinkage in an ITT patient population is a novel approach that appears to correlate well with OS in patients treated with nivolumab monotherapy or in combination with ipilimumab. This endpoint may provide a more complete characterization of tumor shrinkage to incorporate into the design of future ICI clinical trials. However, confirmation of this approach will require further research.

Impact of Advantage in Tumor Response on the Correlation Between Progression-Free Survival and Overall Survival: Meta-Analysis of Clinical Trials in Patients with Advanced Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer

BACKGROUND

Progression-free survival (PFS) has not been validated as a surrogate endpoint for overall survival (OS) in patients with advanced non-small cell lung cancer.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to investigate an impact of advantage in tumor response on the correlation between PFS and OS in advanced non-small cell lung cancer.

METHODS

Based on a literature search, we identified randomized controlled trials of first-line therapy for advanced non-small cell lung cancer. The impact of absolute difference in objective response rate between treatment arms on the correlation between hazard ratios (HRs) for PFS and OS was evaluated based on Spearman rank correlation coefficients.

RESULTS

Sixty trials with a total of 29,134 patients were identified. The HR for PFS showed a relatively higher correlation with HR for OS (r_s = 0.75) when the trials were limited to those that demonstrated a larger advantage in objective response rate, compared with the case for trials that demonstrated a smaller advantage (r_s = 0.66). This tendency was also observed in the subgroup analysis stratified by the types of treatment agents (non-targeted, anti-angiogenic, and immunotherapy) except for the group of epidermal growth factor receptor-targeted agents.

CONCLUSIONS

The magnitude of advantage in tumor response was suggested to contribute to a better prediction of OS-HR based on PFS-HR in clinical trials in patients with advanced non-small cell lung cancer.

A systematic review of meta-analyses assessing the validity of tumour response endpoints as surrogates for progression-free or overall survival in cancer

BACKGROUND

Tumour response endpoints, such as overall response rate (ORR) and complete response (CR), are increasingly used in cancer trials. However, the validity of response-based surrogates is unclear. This systematic review summarises meta-analyses assessing the association between response-based outcomes and overall survival (OS), progression-free survival (PFS) or time-to-progression (TTP).

METHODS

Five databases were searched to March 2019. Meta-analyses reporting correlation or regression between response-based outcomes and OS, PFS or TTP were summarised.

RESULTS

The systematic review included 63 studies across 20 cancer types, most commonly non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), colorectal cancer (CRC) and breast cancer. The strength of association between ORR or CR and either PFS or OS varied widely between and within studies, with no clear pattern by cancer type. The association between ORR and OS appeared weaker and more variable than that between ORR and PFS, both for associations between absolute endpoints and associations between treatment effects.

CONCLUSIONS

This systematic review suggests that response-based endpoints, such as ORR and CR, may not be reliable surrogates for PFS or OS. Where it is necessary to use tumour response to predict treatment effects on survival outcomes, it is important to fully reflect all statistical uncertainty in the surrogate relationship.

Validation of Progression-Free Survival Rate at 6 Months and Objective Response for Estimating Overall Survival in Immune Checkpoint Inhibitor Trials: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

IMPORTANCE

Progression-free survival (PFS) rate at 6 months has been proposed as a potential surrogate for overall survival (OS) rate at 12 months for immune checkpoint inhibitor (ICI) trials but requires further assessment for validation.

OBJECTIVE

To validate 6-month PFS and objective response rate (ORR) as estimators of 12-month OS in the ICI arms of randomized clinical trials (RCTs).

DATA SOURCES

Electronic databases (Medline, EMBASE, and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials) were searched for ICI RCTs published between January 2000 and June 2019.

STUDY SELECTION

Eligible studies were phase 2 and phase 3 ICI RCTs in advanced solid cancers that reported ORR, PFS, and OS. A total of 99 articles (from 60 studies) of 2502 articles were selected by consensus.

DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS

Data were screened and extracted independently. Estimation models for 12-month OS and to assess correlation coefficient between end points were developed using linear regression. Data were extracted in July 2019, and analyses were conducted in September 2019. This study is reported following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses (PRISMA) reporting guideline.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Validation of previously reported 6-month PFS and ORR estimation models for 12-month OS using contemporary RCTs. Calibration of 6-month PFS and ORR model-estimated vs observed 12-month OS in ICI arms were assessed by correlation coefficient (r) and weighted Brier scores. Secondary analyses were performed for subgroups (ie, ICI-only, ICI-combination, line of therapy, programmed cell death 1 ligand 1 selected, and unselected).

RESULTS

Data from 60 RCTs with 74 experimental ICI arms were used. The development data set included 25 arms from studies published January 2000 to January 2017. The estimation model for 12-month OS using 6-month PFS was: (1.06 × PFS6) + 0.16 + (0.04 × melanoma) - (0.03 × NSCLC) + (0 × other tumors), in which PFS6 indicates 6-month PFS and NSCLC indicates non-small cell lung cancer. The estimation model for 12-month OS using ORR was (0.15 × ORR) + 0.52 + (0 × melanoma) - (0.02 × NSCLC) - (0.01 × other tumors). A total of 49 arms from studies published after January 2017 to June 2019 formed the validation data set. When the models were applied on the validation data set, calibration between the 6-month PFS model estimated vs observed 12-month OS was good (r = 0.89; Brier score, 0.008), but poor for the ORR model (r = 0.47; Brier score, 0.03). Findings were similar across all subgroups.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

The findings of this study suggest that the estimation model using 6-month PFS could reliably estimate 12-month OS in ICI trials. This study could assist in better selection and prioritization of ICI agents for testing in RCTs based on phase 2 single-arm RCT results.

[18F]FDG PET immunotherapy radiomics signature (iRADIOMICS) predicts response of non-small-cell lung cancer patients treated with pembrolizumab

Background

Immune checkpoint inhibitors have changed the paradigm of cancer treatment; however, non-invasive biomarkers of response are still needed to identify candidates for non-responders. We aimed to investigate whether immunotherapy [¹⁸F]FDG PET radiomics signature (iRADIOMICS) predicts response of metastatic non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients to pembrolizumab better than the current clinical standards.

Patients and methods

Thirty patients receiving pembrolizumab were scanned with [¹⁸F]FDG PET/CT at baseline, month 1 and 4. Associations of six robust primary tumour radiomics features with overall survival were analysed with Mann-Whitney U-test (MWU), Cox proportional hazards regression analysis, and ROC curve analysis. iRADIOMICS was constructed using univariate and multivariate logistic models of the most promising feature(s). Its predictive power was compared to PD-L1 tumour proportion score (TPS) and iRECIST using ROC curve analysis. Prediction accuracies were assessed with 5-fold cross validation.

Results

The most predictive were baseline radiomics features, e.g. Small Run Emphasis (MWU, p = 0.001; hazard ratio = 0.46, p = 0.007; AUC = 0.85 (95% CI 0.69–1.00)). Multivariate iRADIOMICS was found superior to the current standards in terms of predictive power and timewise with the following AUC (95% CI) and accuracy (standard deviation): iRADIOMICS (baseline), 0.90 (0.78–1.00), 78% (18%); PD-L1 TPS (baseline), 0.60 (0.37–0.83), 53% (18%); iRECIST (month 1), 0.79 (0.62–0.95), 76% (16%); iRECIST (month 4), 0.86 (0.72–1.00), 76% (17%).

Conclusions

Multivariate iRADIOMICS was identified as a promising imaging biomarker, which could improve management of metastatic NSCLC patients treated with pembrolizumab. The predicted non-responders could be offered other treatment options to improve their overall survival.

Surrogate endpoints for overall survival in anti-programmed death-1 and anti-programmed death ligand 1 trials of advanced melanoma

Background

We assessed the surrogacy of objective response rate (ORR), disease control rate (DCR) and progression-free survival (PFS) for overall survival (OS) in anti-PD-1/PD-L1 trials of metastatic melanoma through a meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials (RCTs).

Methods

PubMed and EMBASE were searched for phase II/III RCTs till June 2019 investigating anti-PD-1/PD-L1 agents. Treatment effect (hazard ratio or odds ratio) on potential surrogates (ORR/DCR/PFS) and OS were collected. At trial level, we assessed the correlation between treatment effect on potential surrogates and OS, weighted by sample size, fixed and random effect models, and calculated the surrogate threshold effect (STE). Sensitivity analyses and leave-one-out cross-validation approach were performed to evaluate the robustness of our findings.

Results

We included 8 RCTs (4110 patients; 11 comparisons). We did not identify strong correlations between ORR [coefficient of determination (R ²): 0.09-0.25], DCR (0.41-0.57) and OS. However, we noted a strong correlation between PFS and OS, with R ² of 0.82 in sample size, 0.75 in fixed effect and 0.72 in random effect model weighting, the robustness of which was further verified by leave-one-out cross-validation approach. Sensitivity analyses with restriction to trials with less than 50% crossover, phase III trials, large trials and first-line trials strengthened the correlation (0.78-0.94). The STE for PFS was 0.78.

Conclusions

PFS may be the appropriate surrogate for OS in anti-PD-1/PD-L1 trials of metastatic melanoma. A future anti-PD-1/PD-L1 trial would need less than 0.78 for PFS of the upper limit of confidence interval to predict an OS benefit.

The role of surgery in patients aged 85 years or older with resectable gastric cancer: a propensity score matching analysis of the SEER database

Introduction: An increasing number of newly diagnosed resectable gastric cancer (GC) patients are over 85 years of age. However, studies on surgical treatment in these patients are limited. This study aimed to explore the prognosis of a large sample of the oldest old GC patients receiving surgery.Methods: A total of 2914 oldest old patients with stage I-III GC were included in the linked Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database from 2006 to 2015. Based on their treatment, we assigned these patients to the surgery and no surgery groups. We used propensity score matching (1:1) to balance the baseline characteristics. The Kaplan-Meier method was used for the survival analysis. Multivariate Cox regression analysis was used to analyse the independent risk factors.Results: After propensity score matching, the median overall survival (OS) times in the surgery and no surgery groups were 24.0 (95% CI: 20.3-27.7) and 4.0 (95% CI: 3.5-4.5) months, respectively (p < .01). Age, sex, stage, histological type, and treatment with surgery and chemotherapy were independent risk factors for OS in the oldest old patients with GC. In total, 19% of the oldest old patients with GC died from causes unrelated to cancer.Conclusions: The current large-scale study demonstrated that the oldest old patients with stage I-III GC could benefit from elective surgery.

Anti-PD-1 immunotherapy in advanced metastatic melanoma: State of the art and future challenges

Immunotherapy with immune checkpoint inhibitors, such as anti-PD-1 drugs, is an area in increasing development for its efficacy and advantages in the treatment of advanced metastatic melanoma. In fact, immunotherapy has been the target of several and recent studies in different types of cancer, namely in melanoma, a globally growing threat. Contributing to the increasing incidence of this cancer is climate change, particularly global warming of the past century, which has increased the tendency to spend more time outdoors and, consequently, exposure to sunlight and ultraviolet radiation. Among the most relevant risk factors for melanoma is the increase in ultraviolet radiation due to ozone layer depletion, one of the main factors responsible for the incidence of new cases. Anti-PD-1 agents like Nivolumab and Pembrolizumab allow a more effective treatment, enhancing the duration of the responses to therapy and prolonging the survival of the patient. However, recent studies about safety and tolerability have stated that, although these drugs present less adverse effects and toxicity, they may lead to specific autoimmune-mediated adverse events. Overall, immunotherapy with anti-PD-1 agents represents a highly promising area in the treatment of some types of cancer such as melanoma.

Endpoint surrogacy in oncological randomized controlled trials with immunotherapies: a systematic review of trial-level and arm-level meta-analyses

Few cancer drugs or their indications achieved survival benefit in subsequent trials during postmarket period after approval based on surrogate endpoints. This causes a concern of using surrogate endpoints instead of overall survival (OS) as the primary endpoint for trial design, implementation and regulation approval. We conducted a systematic review to summarize the findings from published meta-analyses which have evaluated endpoint surrogacy for OS in oncological randomized controlled trials (RCTs) with immunotherapies. After searching articles indexed in PubMed prior to 24 February 2019, we identified a total of 11 meta-analyses for advanced multiple tumors, non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), urothelial carcinoma, renal cell carcinoma, melanoma; most (91%; 10/11) focused on immune checkpoint inhibitors. Although the evaluation criteria adopted by these meta-analyses for validating endpoint surrogacy were not consistent (ranging from R² ≥0.60 to R² ≥0.80), the results were consistent. Few studies show an association between OS and progression-free survival (PFS)/objective response rate (ORR) that met the lowest evaluation criteria (R² ≥0.60), based on treatment effects (8%; 2/26 indications) or absolute results from experimental arm (0%; 0/11 indications). However, the association between OS and 1-year survival rate met the lowest criteria based on both the trial-level results (4/4 indications) and the arm-level results (5/5 indications). In lieu of this finding, we are supportive of an alternative endpoint, e.g., 1-year survival rate, rather than the more conventional choices PFS and ORR, as promising surrogate endpoint for OS in immunotherapy RCTs. We encourage further investigation on endpoint surrogacy based on the same or different settings, especially an assessment on survival rate at milestone time (e.g., 1-year), which has been demonstrated valuable for predicting OS in meta-analyses.

Correlation of Milestone Restricted Mean Survival Time Ratio With Overall Survival Hazard Ratio in Randomized Clinical Trials of Immune Checkpoint Inhibitors: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

Importance

Immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) have unique patterns of response and survival that differ from conventional chemotherapies. Novel intermediate end points are urgently required to detect the early signals of ICI activity.

Objective

To evaluate milestone rate (Kaplan-Meier estimates of survival probabilities at given time points) and milestone restricted mean survival time (RMST, the area under survival curves up to given time points) as potential intermediate end points for ICI trials.

Data Sources

Electronic databases (pre-MEDLINE, MEDLINE, Embase, and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials) were searched for randomized clinical trials published between January 1, 2000, and December 31, 2017.

Study Selection

Phase 2 and phase 3 randomized clinical trials evaluating ICIs in advanced solid tumors.

Data Extraction and Synthesis

Two investigators extracted the data and reconstructed individual patient data to estimate the milestone rate or milestone RMST from the published Kaplan-Meier curves.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Trial-level milestone rates or milestone RMSTs were estimated for 6-month and 9-month progression-free survival (PFS) and 9-month and 12-month overall survival (OS). A weighted linear regression model evaluated the correlations of ratios of milestone rates or milestone RMSTs with OS hazard ratios (HRs).

Results

Twenty-six trials examining 8 different tumor types were identified, including 12 892 patients. Overall survival HR was correlated with the ratio of 9-month OS milestone rate (R2 = 0.45; 95% CI, 0.27-0.74), and with the ratio of 12-month OS milestone rate (R2 = 0.40; 95% CI, 0.22-0.70). The ratio of 9-month OS milestone RMST (R2 = 0.60; 95% CI, 0.28-0.74) and ratio of 12-month OS milestone RMST were correlated with OS HR (R2 = 0.64; 95% CI, 0.42-0.78). No correlations were observed between OS HR and the ratio of 6-month or 9-month PFS milestone rates or milestone RMSTs.

Conclusions and Relevance

Ratios of OS milestone RMSTs had a stronger correlation with OS HRs than ratios of OS milestone rates, whereas ratios of PFS milestone rates and ratios of PFS milestone RMSTs were not correlated with OS HRs. The OS milestone RMST could be further studied as an intermediate end point in future ICI trials.