Circulating Epstein-Barr virus DNA level post induction chemotherapy contributes to prognostication in advanced-stage nasopharyngeal carcinoma

A machine learning based prediction model for short term efficacy of nasopharyngeal carcinoma

The radiological dosimetric parameters and clinical features were screened by machine learning to construct a prediction model for the short-term efficacy of locally advanced Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma (LANPC). Patients diagnosed with Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma were retrospectively collected in the study. Twenty-four clinical features and twelve radiological dosimetric features were included. Three machine learning algorithms were used to construct predictive models for the short-term efficacy of LANPC. Kaplan-Meier log-rank method was used to compare the prognosis of patients with different efficacies in the model. The reliability of the model was evaluated using the calibration curve and the area under the curve (AUC). There were 194 patients who met the inclusion criteria. Among the three models being constructed, Random forest (RSF) model showed the best predictive ability, with AUC values of 1.000 in the training group and 0.944 in the test group, followed by XGBoost decision tree (GBDT) model (0.866/0.849) and decision tree (DT) model (0.848/0.783). In RSF model, the 3-year and 5-year overall survival rates of patients in complete remission (CR) group were 98.9% (95% CI 0.9688-1.0000) and 89.7% (95% CI 0.8256-0.9752), respectively.While for patients in non-CR group, the 3-year and 5-year overall survival (OS) rate was 100% (95%CI 1.000~1.000) and 98.8% (95% CI 0.9652-1.0000), respectively. There has statistically significant difference between the two groups (P = 0.0037). RSF model constructed by machine-learning algorithm based on radiological dosimetric parameters and clinical characteristics can better predict the short-term efficacy of LANPC, and is an effective tool to evaluate the short-term efficacy of different LANPC patients during treatment.

Plasma Epstein-Barr Virus DNA Temporal Clearance Pattern During Induction-Concurrent (Chemo)Radiation Therapy for Risk Stratification in Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma

PURPOSE

Plasma Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) DNA is a widely used biomarker for nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC). Prior investigations predominantly assessed EBV DNA at a single time point, thus neglecting the differential prognostic implications of the temporal clearance pattern of EBV DNA during induction-concurrent (chemo)radiation therapy (RT).

METHODS AND MATERIALS

We retrospectively reviewed EBV DNA clearance patterns during induction-concurrent chemoRT in newly diagnosed patients with nonmetastatic NPC. EBV DNA was tested at 3 time points (baseline [T0], end of induction chemotherapy [T1], and end of RT [T2]) and recorded as detectable (D) and undetectable (U). The association between EBV DNA pattern and progression-free survival was analyzed.

RESULTS

A total of 2203 NPCs were included. Five distinct EBV DNA trajectory patterns were identified: type Ⅰ (negative-stable, U-U-U, 7.3%), type Ⅱ (induction chemotherapy-elimination, D-U-U, 42.8%), type Ⅲ (RT-elimination, D-D-U, 35.0%), type Ⅳ (persistent-positive, D-D-D, 11.7%), and type Ⅴ (resurgence, D-U-D [1.5%], U-D-U [1.2%], U-D-D [0.4%], or U-U-D [0.2%]). The median follow-up was 53.5 months (IQR, 43.1-66.9). Type Ⅱ patients displayed superior 5-year progression-free survival (82.9% [95% CI, 80.4%-85.5%]) versus type Ⅲ (75.9% [72.8%-79.1%], P < .001), type Ⅳ (52.5% [46.4%-59.5%], P < .001), and type Ⅴ (72.5% [62.2%-84.6%], P = .028). The 5-year progression-free survival for type V patients with "D-U-D," "U-D-U," "U-D-D," and "U-U-D" patterns was 62.4% (46.2%-84.3%), 78.6% (63.1%-97.8%), 85.7% (63.3%-100.0%), and 75.0% (42.6%-100.0%), respectively. All 33 patients with the "D-U-D" pattern had stage Ⅲ-Ⅳ disease at diagnosis.

CONCLUSIONS

Temporal EBV DNA clearance patterns during induction-concurrent chemoRT provide valuable prognostic insights, enabling the identification of patients with high-risk NPC and informing personalized treatment strategies. Resurgence of EBV DNA may occur occasionally (3.3%). Caution is required when considering reduced-intensity therapy in patients with locoeregionally advanced disease when EBV DNA becomes U after induction chemotherapy.

Advances in Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma Staging: from the 7th to the 9th Edition of the TNM System and Future Outlook

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC), characterized by its aggressive nature and sensitivity to radiation, demands accurate staging for optimal clinical outcomes. The purpose of this review was to provides a comprehensive overview of the evolution of the TNM staging system for NPC based on recent and previously published studies, with particular emphasis on the transition from the 7th to the 9th edition.

RECENT FINDINGS

The 9th edition introduces critical changes, particularly in the N and M classifications, to enhance prognostic accuracy. Our analysis also incorporates the burgeoning roles of biomarkers, especially Epstein-Barr virus (EBV)-DNA, and the potential of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in refining NPC staging. Each iteration of the TNM staging system for NPC has successfully enhanced the prognostic precision of NPC, with notable advancements from the 7th to the 9th edition. We also delves into the incorporation of biomarkers, such as EBV-DNA, and the potential of AI in refining staging accuracy. These innovations are anticipated to offer personalized prognoses and inform tailored treatment strategies for NPC patients in the future.

Clinical significance of post-chemoradiotherapy 2-[18F]FDG PET/CT response in locally advanced nasopharyngeal carcinoma: A real-world study

PURPOSE

To investigate the prognostic value of post-chemoradiotherapy 2-[18F]FDG PET/CT in locally advanced nasopharyngeal carcinoma (LANPC) and develop an accurate prognostic model based on the 2-[18F]FDG PET/CT results.

METHODS

900 LANPC patients who underwent pretreatment and post-chemoradiotherapy 2-[18F]FDG PET/CT from May 2014 to August 2022 were included in the study. We divided the patients into two distinct cohorts for the purpose of our study: a training cohort comprising 506 individuals, included from May 2008 to April 2020, and a validation cohort consisting of 394 individuals, included from May 2020 to August 2022. PET/CT were assessed using the improved Deauville score (iDS) system. Cox regression analysis was performed to select candidate variables. A prognostic model was developed by the training cohort, and validated using the independent validation cohort.

RESULTS

Age (HR, 2.262(1.488-3.439); p＜0.001), ECOG (HR, 2.450 (1.395-4.301); p = 0.002), post-treatment EBV DNA level (HR, 2.208 (1.289-3.784); p = 0.004) and iDS {[iDS1-2 vs iDS3-4: HR, 3.781 (1.996-7.163); p＜0.001]; [iDS1-2 vs iDS5: HR, 11.707 (5.884-23.295); p＜0.001]}were independent predictors of OS. A 4-factor prognostic model developed and subsequently validated. This innovative model demonstrated excellent discrimination (C-index: 0.862). The calibration curves revealed a close match between the predicted probabilities and the actual outcomes, and decision curve analysis (DCA) confirmed the nomogram's utility for guiding clinical decision-making.

CONCLUSION

Our study validated the predictive value of the iDS system in determining outcome for LANPC. The 4-factor prognostic model, which integrates baseline patient characteristics with iDS, demonstrated good discrimination, agreement, and clinical application potential.

The efficacy of adjuvant chemotherapy in patients with different midpoint-radiotherapy Epstein-Barr virus DNA plasma loads

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to evaluate the efficacy of adjuvant chemotherapy (AC) in patients with different midpoint-radiotherapy (mid-RT) Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) DNA plasma loads for locoregionally advanced nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC), and to provide decision-making regarding the use of AC.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A total of 675 consecutive patients diagnosed with stage III-IVa NPC were enrolled in this study. All patients underwent concurrent chemoradiotherapy (CCRT), either with or without induction chemotherapy or AC, or a combination of both. The primary endpoint of this study was progression-free survival (PFS).

RESULTS

Among the 675 enrolled patients, 248 (36.7 %) received AC and 427 (63.3 %) were only observed after CCRT. In total, 149 (22.1 %) patients had detectable mid-RT EBV DNA levels, whereas 526 (77.9 %) had undetectable mid-RT EBV DNA levels. Patients with detectable mid-RT EBV DNA had worse 5-year PFS than those with undetectable mid-RT EBV DNA (74.8 % vs. 81.9 %, P = 0.045). AC group showed significantly better 5-year PFS than observation in patients with detectable mid-RT EBV DNA (82.8 % vs. 66.8 %; HR, 0.480; 95 % CI 0.250-0.919, P = 0.027). Multivariate analyses demonstrated that the treatment methods (AC vs. observation) were independent prognostic factors for PFS (HR, 0.37; 95 % CI 0.19-0.74, P = 0.005). However, in patients with undetectable mid-RT EBV DNA (5-year PFS: HR 0.873, 95 % CI 0.565-1.349, P = 0.52), AC group showed no survival benefit for observation.

CONCLUSION

AC could reduce the risk of disease progression compared to observation in patients with detectable mid-RT EBV DNA. Our findings suggest that AC is effective in patients at a high risk of treatment failure.

Longitudinal on-treatment circulating tumor DNA as a biomarker for real-time dynamic risk monitoring in cancer patients: The EP-SEASON study

Recurrence risks of cancer patient can change during treatment as a result of treatment-related tumor evolution. However, biomarkers that can monitor these changes are lacking. Here, we investigated whether tracking circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) dynamics through liquid biopsy can inform real-time recurrence risk. Nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) provides an ideal model where cell-free Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) DNA (cfEBV DNA), a ctDNA, can be sensitively detected. We conducted the EP-SEASON study (NCT03855020) and prospectively recruited 1,000 NPC patients undergoing per-protocol cfEBV DNA assessments at 11 time points and receiving sequential chemo-radiotherapy. Longitudinal cfEBV DNA displayed distinct patterns during neoadjuvant chemotherapy and radiotherapy. Despite the prognostic significance of cfEBV DNA at each time point, real-time recurrence risks changed in sync with cfEBV DNA dynamics. Furthermore, we identified phenotypes of whole-course ctDNA changing dynamics associated with different survival outcomes. In conclusion, tracking longitudinal on-treatment ctDNA can forecast real-time recurrence risk, facilitating risk-adapted, individualized patient management.

Precision Medicine for Nasopharyngeal Cancer-A Review of Current Prognostic Strategies

Nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) is an Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) driven malignancy arising from the nasopharyngeal epithelium. Current treatment strategies depend on the clinical stage of the disease, including the extent of the primary tumour, the extent of nodal disease, and the presence of distant metastasis. With the close association of EBV infection with NPC development, EBV biomarkers have shown promise in predicting treatment outcomes. Among the omic technologies, RNA and miRNA signatures have been widely studied, showing promising results in the research setting to predict treatment response. The transformation of radiology images into measurable features has facilitated the use of radiomics to generate predictive models for better prognostication and treatment selection. Nonetheless, much of this work remains in the research realm, and challenges remain in clinical implementation.

Prognostic value of lymph node-to-primary tumor ratio of PET standardized uptake value for nasopharyngeal carcinoma: a recursive partitioning risk stratification analysis

Background

Induction chemotherapy (IC) combined with concurrent chemoradiotherapy has become the standard treatment for locoregionally advanced nasopharyngeal carcinoma (LA-NPC). Data on the prognostic value of the lymph node-to-primary tumor ratio (NTR) of positron emission tomography (PET) standardized uptake value (SUV) for patients treated with IC were limited.

Objectives

To evaluate the prognostic value of the SUV NTR for patients with LA-NPC treated with IC.

Design

In all, 467 patients with pretreatment 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose PET/computed tomography (CT) scans between September 2017 and November 2020 were retrospectively reviewed.

Methods

The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was used to determine the optimal cut-off value of SUV NTR. Kaplan-Meier method was used to evaluate survival rates. The recursive partitioning analysis (RPA) was performed to construct a risk stratification model.

Results

The optimal cutoff value of SUV NTR was 0.74. Multivariate analyses showed that SUV NTR and overall stage were independent predictors for distant metastasis-free survival (DMFS) and regional recurrent-free survival (RRFS). Therefore, an RPA model based on the endpoint of DMFS was generated and categorized the patients into three distinct risk groups: RPA I (low risk: SUV NTR < 0.74 and stage III), RPA II (medium risk: SUV NTR < 0.74 and stage IVa, or SUV NTR ⩾ 0.74 and stage III), and RPA III (high risk: SUV NTR ⩾ 0.74 and stage IVa), with a 3-year DMFS of 98.9%, 93.4%, and 84.2%, respectively. ROC analysis showed that the RPA model had superior predictive efficacy than the SUV NTR or overall stage alone.

Conclusion

SUV NTR was an independent prognosticator for distant metastasis and regional recurrence in locoregionally advanced NPC. The RPA risk stratification model based on SUV NTR provides improved DMFS and RRFS prediction over the eighth edition of the TNM (Tumor Node Metastasis) staging system.

Combined pre-treatment and middle-treatment Epstein-Barr virus DNA load contributes to prognostication and treatment modification in nasopharyngeal carcinoma patients

Objective

To investigate whether pre-treatment and middle-treatment plasma Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) DNA loads are useful predictors of prognosis and indicators of therapy modification in nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) patients undergoing radical concurrent chemoradiotherapy (CCRT).

Methods

Plasma EBV DNA load was measured by quantitative polymerase chain reaction before treatment (pre-DNA) and during the second cycle of DDP (mid-DNA). The primary endpoint was 5-year progression-free survival (PFS).

Results

A total of 775 NPC patients treated with CCRT were included. In total, 553 patients with pre-DNA <4000 copies/mL and 222 with ⩾4000 copies/mL. A total of 559 patients had mid-DNA undetectable and 216 had detectable. Multivariate analysis showed that pre- and mid-DNA were independent prognostic predictors of PFS [hazard ratio (HR), 2.035; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.406-2.944; p < 0.001; HR, 1.597; 95% CI, 1.101-2.316; p = 0.014]. The area under the curve of the combination of pre-DNA and mid-DNA for 5-year PFS was higher than that of pre-DNA, mid-DNA, and tumor node metastasis (TNM) stage (0.679 versus 0.622, 0.608, 0.601). In the low-risk group (pre-DNA <4000 copies/mL and undetectable mid-DNA), patients receiving ⩽200 mg/m2 showed similar efficacy as those receiving >200 mg/m2 cumulative cisplatin dose (CCD) but were associated with fewer all-grade late toxicities. However, in the high-risk group (pre-DNA ⩾4000 copies/mL or detectable mid-DNA), patients receiving >200 mg/m2 CCD showed a higher 5-year PFS (73.1% versus 58.6%, p = 0.027) and locoregional relapse-free survival (88.5% versus 76.1%, p = 0.028) than those receiving ⩽200 mg/m2 CCD.

Conclusion

The combination of pre-DNA and mid-DNA could be particularly useful for guiding risk stratification and early treatment modification for NPC treated with CCRT. A total of 200 mg/m2 cisplatin seemed to be the optimal dose for the low-risk patients, while >200 mg/m2 cisplatin may be adequate to achieve satisfactory survival outcomes in the high-risk group.

Individualized Concurrent Chemotherapy for Patients with Stage III-IVa Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma Receiving Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy Combined with Definitive Intensity-Modulated Radiotherapy

PURPOSE

This retrospective study aimed to re-evaluate the effect of concurrent chemotherapy in patients with locally advanced nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) in the era of intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A total of 498 patients who received neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NCT) combined with concurrent chemoradiotherapy (CCRT) or IMRT were retrospectively reviewed. The distribution of baseline characteristics was balanced using propensity score matching. Additionally, the results of NCT+IMRT and NCT+CCRT were compared using Kaplan-Meier survival analysis, and differences in survival rates were analyzed using the log rank test.

RESULTS

There were no significant differences in overall survival (OS), progression-free survival (PFS), distant metastasis-free survival (DMFS), and local progression-free survival (LRFS) between the two groups. Patients were further categorized into risk subgroups based on pretreatment Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) DNA cutoff values using receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. There were no statistically significant differences in OS, PFS, DMFS, and LRFS between patients who received NCT+CCRT and NCT+IMRT in the high-risk group. In the low-risk group, although there were no differences between NCT+CCRT and NCT+IMRT in OS, PFS, and LRFS, patients who received NCT+CCRT had better DMFS than those who received NCT+IMRT.

CONCLUSION

Pretreatment EBV DNA level can be used to individualize concurrent chemotherapy for patients with locally advanced NPC. Patients with low pretreatment EBV DNA levels may benefit from concurrent chemotherapy, whereas those with high levels may not. Other treatment modalities need to be explored for high-risk patients to improve their prognosis.

The value of integrating tumor volume and plasma Epstein-Barr virus DNA load during sequential chemoradiotherapy for prognostic prediction and therapeutic guidance in high-risk locoregionally advanced nasopharyngeal carcinoma

OBJECTIVES

To investigate the value of integrating primary gross tumor volume (GTVp) and gross tumor volume of nodes (GTVn) after induction chemotherapy (IC) and dynamic changes in plasma cell-free Epstein-Barr virus DNA (cfEBV DNA) during sequential chemoradiotherapy (CRT) in high-risk locoregionally advanced nasopharyngeal carcinoma (LA-NPC).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We retrospectively reviewed 988 patients with LA-NPC undergoing IC plus concurrent chemoradiotherapy (CCRT) between 2014 and 2018. The entire cohort was divided into four subgroups according to tumor volume and the cfEBV DNA load. Using a supervised statistical clustering approach, we stratified the subgroups into three clusters. Overall survival (OS), disease-free survival (DFS), distant metastasis-free survival (DMFS) and locoregional relapse-free survival (LRRFS) were calculated using Kaplan-Meier analysis and inter-group differences were compared using the log-rank test.

RESULTS

We observed that GTVp & GTVn and cfEBV DNApostIC & cfEBV DNApostCRT were powerful prognostic factors for OS (p = 0.004, p < 0.001, p < 0.001, and p < 0.001, respectively). The survival curves of the three clusters were significantly different. The 5-year OS for the low-risk, intermediate-risk and high-risk clusters were 97.0%, 86.2% and 77.1% (all P values < 0.001), respectively. The risk stratification system showed better predictive performance than the current tumor-node-metastasis (TNM) classification for OS (area under curve [AUC]: 0.653 versus 0.560, p < 0.001), DFS (AUC: 0.639 versus 0.540, p < 0.001), DMFS (AUC: 0.628 versus 0.535, p < 0.001) and LRRFS (AUC: 0.616 versus 0.513, p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

Both tumor volume and the cfEBV DNA level during sequential CRT are effective prognostic indicators for patients with high-risk LA-NPC. The developed risk stratification system incorporating above factors improved survival prediction and demonstrated potential value in decision-making.

Prognostic value of circulating Epstein-Barr virus DNA level post-induction chemotherapy for patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma: A recursive partitioning risk stratification analysis

BACKGROUND

To evaluate the prognostic value of plasma Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) DNA level post-induction chemotherapy (IC) for patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC).

METHODS

A total of 893 newly diagnosed NPC patients treated with IC were retrospectively reviewed. The recursive partitioning analysis (RPA) was performed to construct a risk stratification model. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was applied to determine the optimal cut-off value of post-IC EBV DNA.

RESULTS

Post-IC EBV DNA levels and overall stage were independent predictors for distant metastasis-free survival (DMFS), overall survival (OS), and progression-free survival (PFS). The RPA model base on post-IC EBV DNA and overall stage categorized the patients into three distinct risk groups: RPA I (low-risk: stage II-III and post-IC EBV DNA < 200 copies/mL), RPA II (median-risk: stage II-III and post-IC EBV DNA ≥ 200 copies/mL, or stage IVA and post-IC EBV DNA < 200 copies/mL), and RPA III (high-risk: stage IVA and post-IC EBV DNA ≥ 200 copies/mL), with 3-year PFS of 91.1%, 82.6%, and 60.2%, respectively (p < 0.001). The DMFS and OS rates in different RPA groups were also distinct. The RPA model showed better risk discrimination than either the overall stage or post-RT EBV DNA alone.

CONCLUSIONS

Plasma EBV DNA level post-IC was a robust prognostic biomarker for NPC. We developed an RPA model that provides improved risk discrimination over the 8th edition of the TNM staging system by integrating the post-IC EBV DNA level and the overall stage.

Prognostic effect of residual plasma Epstein-Barr viral DNA after induction chemotherapy for locoregionally advanced nasopharyngeal carcinoma

BACKGROUND

To assess the prognostic effect of plasma Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) DNA load after induction chemotherapy (postIC -EBV DNA) on survival outcomes in locoregionally advanced nasopharyngeal carcinoma (LA-NPC).

METHODS

Patients who were diagnosed with LA-NPC between August 2017 and October 2021 were included. The chi-squared test, receiver operating characteristic, Kaplan-Meier survival analysis, and Cox proportional hazard model were used for statistical analysis.

RESULTS

We included 172 patients with EBV DNA-positive LA-NPC in this study. There were 35.5% (n = 61) of patients had plasma residual EBV DNA after induction chemotherapy (IC). Patients with higher EBV DNA before IC (p < 0.001) and advanced nodal stage (p = 0.031) were significantly related to a higher rate of residual postIC -EBV DNA. Patients with detectable postIC -EBV DNA had inferior 3-year locoregional relapse-free survival (LRFS) (86.7% vs. 96.9%, p = 0.020), distant metastasis-free survival (DMFS) (76.8% vs. 94.2%, p < 0.001), disease-free survival (DFS) (68.2% vs. 91.1%, p < 0.001), and overall survival (OS) (87.8% vs. 97.9%, p = 0.044) compared to those with undetectable postIC -EBV DNA. The multivariate prognostic analyses showed that detectable postIC -EBV DNA was the independent prognostic factor related to LRFS (p = 0.032), DMFS (p = 0.010), and DFS (p = 0.004) than those with undetectable postIC -EBV DNA. Pretreatment EBV DNA load had no prognostic effect in the multivariate analyses.

CONCLUSIONS

The monitoring of plasma postIC -EBV DNA has improved prognostication in LA-NPC. Our findings suggest that postIC -EBV DNA may be a robust indicator to identify the optimal candidate for intensive treatment.

Radiotherapy Alone Versus Concurrent or Adjuvant Chemoradiotherapy for Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma Patients with Negative Epstein–Barr Virus DNA after Induction Chemotherapy

The purpose of this study was to compare the efficacy and toxicity of induction chemotherapy (IC) plus radiotherapy (RT) and IC plus concurrent or adjuvant chemoradiotherapy (CCRT/AC) in nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) patients with negative Epstein–Barr virus DNA (EBV DNA) after IC. A total of 547 NPC patients with negative plasma EBV DNA post-IC were included. Patients were classified into the IC + RT group and the IC + CCRT/AC group. Locoregional relapse-free survival (LRFS), distant metastasis-free survival (DMFS), overall survival (OS), and progression-free survival (PFS) were estimated and compared using the Kaplan–Meier method. Propensity score matching (PSM) was performed to balance the variables. The median follow-up time was 37 months. The 3-year LRFS, DMFS, OS, and PFS rates for the whole group were 92.2%, 92.4%, 96.4%, and 84.4%, respectively. There was no significant difference in LRFS, DMFS, OS, and PFS between the IC + RT and the IC + CCRT/AC groups, both before PSM (3-year rates of 91.1% vs. 92.6%, p = 0.94; 95.6% vs. 91.5%, p = 0.08; 95.2% vs. 96.8%, p = 0.80; 85.9% vs. 84.0%, p = 0.38) and after PSM (90.7% vs. 92.7%, p = 0.77; 96.8% vs. 93.7%, p = 0.29; 94.5% vs. 93.9%, p = 0.57; 84.7% vs. 85.6%, p = 0.96). Multivariate analysis demonstrated that the treatment schedule was not an independent predictor for survival rates. Patients in the IC + RT group had fewer treatment-related acute toxicities and better tolerance. IC + RT displayed similar survival outcomes as IC + CCRT/AC for NPC patients with negative post-IC EBV DNA.

Nomogram Based on Hemoglobin, Albumin, Lymphocyte and Platelet Score to Predict Overall Survival in Patients with T3-4N0-1 Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma

Purpose

There is still uncertainty regarding the prognosis of nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) based on hemoglobin, albumin, lymphocytes, and platelets (HALP) score. The aim of this study was to build and verify a nomogram using HALP score to investigate the prognostic value of NPC and identify low-risk patients in T3-4N0-1 NPC to guide treatment options.

Patients and methods

A total of 568 NPC patients with stage T3-4N0-1M0 were recruited in the study, who were given either concurrent chemoradiotherapy (CCRT) or induction chemotherapy (IC) plus CCRT. The prognostic factors of overall survival (OS) were picked by Cox proportional hazards regression analysis to generate a nomogram, which appraised by discrimination, calibration and clinical utility. Patients were stratified according to risk scores calculated by the nomogram, and compared to the 8th TNM staging system using the Kaplan-Meier methods.

Results

Multivariate analysis showed that TNM stage, Epstein-Barr virus DNA (EBV DNA), HALP score, lactate dehydrogenase-to-albumin ratio (LAR) and systemic inflammatory response index (SIRI) were independent prognostic indicators for OS, and these factors contained in the nomogram. The nomogram demonstrated a significant enhancement over the 8th TNM staging system in terms of assessing OS (C-index, 0.744 vs 0.615 in the training cohort, P < 0.001; 0.757 vs 0.646 in the validation cohort, P = 0.002). Calibration curves displayed good agreement and the stratification in high-risk and low-risk groups resulted in a significant divergence of Kaplan-Meier curves for OS (P < 0.001). In addition, the decision analysis (DCA) curves confirmed satisfactory discriminability and clinical utility.

Conclusion

The HALP score was an independent prognostic factor for NPC. The prognostic function of the nomogram for T3-4N0-1 NPC patients was more accurate compared to the 8th TNM system, facilitating personalized treatment planning.

Epstein-Barr virus DNA change level combined with tumor volume reduction ratio after inductive chemotherapy as a better prognostic predictor in locally advanced nasopharyngeal carcinoma

BACKGROUND

To explore the prognosis predicting ability of the combined factors, Epstein-Barr virus DNA change level (EBVCL) and tumor volume reduction ratio (TVRR) after inductive chemotherapy (IC), in locally advanced nasopharyngeal carcinoma (LANPC).

METHODS

From 2010 to 2018, 299 LANPC patients were included in this retrospective study. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was performed to acquire the best critical values. According to the best critical values of EBVCL and TVRR, patients were stratified into low- and high-risk groups. Kaplan-Meier and ROC curve analyses were utilized to verify the prognostic ability of the new predictor (EBVCL+TVRR). The prognostic values among EBVCL+TVRR, EBVCL, TVRR, TNM stage, and the RECIST 1.1 criteria were compared by ROC curve. The primary end points were overall survival (OS), progression-free survival (PFS), distant metastasis-free survival (DMFS), and locoregional failure-free survival (LRFFS).

RESULTS

ROC curve analyses of TVRR on three-year survival showed the best critical values of TVRR was 32.72% for OS, 30.21% for PFS and LRFFS, 29.87% for DMFS. The best critical value of EBVCL was 127 copies/ml for OS, and 87.7 copies/ml for PFS, DMFS, and LRFFS. The three-year OS, PFS, DMFS, and LRFFS for low- and high-risk groups were 97.7% versus 78.3% (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.2398; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.1277-0.4502; p < 0.0001), 91.1% versus 60.9% (HR = 0.3294; 95% CI: 0.2050-0.5292; p < 0.0001), 94.2% versus 68.7% (HR = 0.2413; 95% CI: 0.1284-0.4535; p < 0.0001) and 97.8% versus 77.9% (HR = 0.3078; 95% CI: 0.1700-0.5573; p = 0.0001), respectively. The maximal area under ROC curve of EBVCL+TVRR, EBVCL, TVRR, TNM stage, and RECIST 1.1 criteria for three-year OS was 0.829, 0.750, 0.711, 0.555, and 0.605, respectively.

CONCLUSION

The new-developed indicator (EBVCL+TVRR) could better predict the LANPC patient's survival after IC compared with TNM stage system or RECIST 1.1 criteria.

A Clinical-Radiomics Nomogram Based on Magnetic Resonance Imaging for Predicting Progression-Free Survival After Induction Chemotherapy in Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma

Purpose

This paper aimed to establish and verify a radiomics model based on magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) for predicting the progression-free survival of nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) after induction chemotherapy (IC).

Materials and Methods

This cohort consists of 288 patients with clinical pathologically confirmed NPC, which was collected from January 2015 to December 2018. All NPC patients were randomly divided into two cohorts: training (n=202) and validation (n=86). Radiomics features from the MRI images of NPC patients were extracted and selected before IC. The patients were classified into high- and low-risk groups according to the median of Radscores. The significant imaging features and clinical variables in the univariate analysis were constructed for progression-free survival (PFS) using the multivariate Cox regression model. A survival analysis was performed using Kaplan–Meier with log-rank test and then each model’s stratification ability was evaluated.

Results

Epstein–Barr virus (EBV) DNA before treatment was an independent predictor for PFS (p &lt; 0.05). Based on the pyradiomic platform, we extracted 1,316 texture parameters in total. Finally, 16 texture features were used to build the model. The clinical radiomics-based model had good prediction capability for PFS, with a C-index of 0.827. The survival curve revealed that the PFS of the high-risk group was poorer than that of the low-risk group.

Conclusion

This research presents a nomogram that merges the radiomics signature and the clinical feature of the plasma EBV DNA load, which may improve the ability of preoperative prediction of progression-free survival and facilitate individualization of treatment in NPC patients before IC.

Liquid Biopsy to Detect Minimal Residual Disease: Methodology and Impact

One reason why some patients experience recurrent disease after a curative-intent treatment might be the persistence of residual tumor cells, called minimal residual disease (MRD). MRD cannot be identified by standard radiological exams or clinical evaluation. Tumor-specific alterations found in the blood indirectly diagnose the presence of MRD. Liquid biopsies thus have the potential to detect MRD, allowing, among other things, the detection of circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA), circulating tumor cells (CTC), or tumor-specific microRNA. Although liquid biopsy is increasingly studied, several technical issues still limit its clinical applicability: low sensitivity, poor standardization or reproducibility, and lack of randomized trials demonstrating its clinical benefit. Being able to detect MRD could give clinicians a more comprehensive view of the risk of relapse of their patients and could select patients requiring treatment escalation with the goal of improving cancer survival. In this review, we are discussing the different methodologies used and investigated to detect MRD in solid cancers, their respective potentials and issues, and the clinical impacts that MRD detection will have on the management of cancer patients.