Spatiotemporal modeling of PM2.5 concentrations at the national scale combining land use regression and Bayesian maximum entropy in China

Coking exhaust contributes to airborne particulate matter in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region

Coking was regarded as a predominant source of air pollution. Despite the adoption of more environmentally friendly equipment, whether the coking enterprises in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region are still causing regional air pollution is worthy of study, which is essential for the control of coking enterprises in this area. To improve the prediction accuracy of large-scale air pollutant distribution, the air particle distribution in the BTH region was simulated via land use regression (LUR) combined with Bayesian maximum entropy (BME); then, the distribution was correlated with the exhaust gas emitted from coking enterprises. Results indicated that the R2 of the "LUR + BME" method reached 0.95, higher than 0.82 using LUR alone. The air quality distribution presented a pattern of "low in the northern mountains and high in the southern plains", similar to the distribution of coking enterprises in BTH region. A significant correlation was found between exhaust emissions from coking enterprises and air quality in the BTH region, confirming the contribution of coking emissions to air pollution in this region, and the necessity to continue the strict control on coking enterprises in BTH area.

A comprehensive review of the development of land use regression approaches for modeling spatiotemporal variations of ambient air pollution: A perspective from 2011 to 2023

Land use regression (LUR) models are widely used in epidemiological and environmental studies to estimate humans' exposure to air pollution within urban areas. However, the early models, developed using linear regressions and data from fixed monitoring stations and passive sampling, were primarily designed to model traditional and criteria air pollutants and had limitations in capturing high-resolution spatiotemporal variations of air pollution. Over the past decade, there has been a notable development of multi-source observations from low-cost monitors, mobile monitoring, and satellites, in conjunction with the integration of advanced statistical methods and spatially and temporally dynamic predictors, which have facilitated significant expansion and advancement of LUR approaches. This paper reviews and synthesizes the recent advances in LUR approaches from the perspectives of the changes in air quality data acquisition, novel predictor variables, advances in model-developing approaches, improvements in validation methods, model transferability, and modeling software as reported in 155 LUR studies published between 2011 and 2023. We demonstrate that these developments have enabled LUR models to be developed for larger study areas and encompass a wider range of criteria and unregulated air pollutants. LUR models in the conventional spatial structure have been complemented by more complex spatiotemporal structures. Compared with linear models, advanced statistical methods yield better predictions when handling data with complex relationships and interactions. Finally, this study explores new developments, identifies potential pathways for further breakthroughs in LUR methodologies, and proposes future research directions. In this context, LUR approaches have the potential to make a significant contribution to future efforts to model the patterns of long- and short-term exposure of urban populations to air pollution.

Estimating the geographical patterns and health risks associated with PM2.5-bound heavy metals to guide PM2.5 control targets in China based on machine-learning algorithms

PM2.5 is the main component of haze, and PM2.5-bound heavy metals (PBHMs) can induce various toxic effects via inhalation. However, comprehensive macroanalyses on large scales are still lacking. In this study, we compiled a substantial dataset consisting of the concentrations of eight PBHMs, including As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Mn, Ni, Pb and Zn, across different cities in China. To improve prediction accuracy, we enhanced the traditional land-use regression (LUR) model by incorporating emission source-related variables and employing the best-fitted machine-learning algorithm, which was applied to predict PBHM concentrations, analyze geographical patterns and assess the health risks associated with metals under different PM2.5 control targets. Our model exhibited excellent performance in predicting the concentrations of PBHMs, with predicted values closely matching measured values. Noncarcinogenic risks exist in 99.4% of the estimated regions, and the carcinogenic risks in all studied regions of the country are within an acceptable range (1 × 10-5-1 × 10-6). In densely populated areas such as Henan, Shandong, and Sichuan, it is imperative to control the concentration of PBHMs to reduce the number of patients with cancer. Controlling PM2.5 effectively decreases both carcinogenic and noncarcinogenic health risks associated with PBHMs, but still exceed acceptable risk level, suggesting that other important emission sources should be given attention.

Health burden evaluation of industrial parks caused by PM2.5 pollution at city scale

Industrial park is an important emission sector of PM2.5 pollution. Previous studies have provided valuable information on the impact of PM2.5 from industrial parks on human health, but relevant studies at city scale are limited. In this study, the health burden of industrial parks was evaluated based on PM2.5-related premature deaths and economic contributions. The premature deaths were calculated in terms of a novel research model by integrating the Bayesian maximum entropy (BME) model, weighted concentration-weighted trajectory (WCWT), and integrated exposure-response function (IER). Take Tianjin City for example, it was found that since the main diffusion direction of PM2.5 in Tianjin is from south to north, the industrial parks in the south of Tianjin and close to the central city with high population density have high health burden. These industrial parks need to be focused on or even relocated in the future. The research model can provide scientific basis for the health burden evaluation of industrial parks at city scale, so as to help local governments optimize the layout of industrial parks and formulate environmental responsibility management policies for industrial parks.

Long-term exposure to PM2.5 and PM10 and chronic kidney disease: the Beijing Health Management Cohort, from 2013 to 2018

Long-term exposure to ambient particulate pollutants (PM_2.5 and PM₁₀) may increase the risk of chronic kidney disease (CKD), but the results of previous research were limited and inconsistent. The purpose of this study was to assess the relationships of PM_2.5 and PM₁₀ with CKD. This study was a cohort study based on the physical examination data of 2082 Beijing residents from 2013 to 2018 in the Beijing Health Management Cohort (BHMC). A land-use regression model was used to estimate the individual exposure concentration of air pollution based on the address provided by each participant. CKD events were identified based on self-report or medical evaluation (estimated glomerular filtration rate, eGFR less than 60 ml/min/1.73 m²). Finally, the associations of PM_2.5 and PM₁₀ with CKD were calculated using univariate and multivariate logistic regression models. During the research period, we collected potentially confounding information. After adjusting for confounders, each 10 μg/m³ increase in PM_2.5 and PM₁₀ exposure was associated with an 84% (OR: 1.84; 95% CI: 1.45, 2.33) and 37% (OR: 1.37; 95% CI: 1.15, 1.63) increased risk of CKD. Adjusting for the four common gaseous air pollutants (CO, NO₂, SO₂, O₃), the effect of PM_2.5 and PM₁₀ on CKD was significantly enhanced, but the effect of PM₁₀ was no longer significant in the multi-pollutant model. The results of the stratified analysis showed that PM_2.5 and PM₁₀ were more significant in males, middle-aged and elderly people over 45 years old, smokers, drinkers, BMI ≥ 24 kg/m², and abnormal metabolic components. In conclusion, long-term exposure to ambient PM_2.5 and PM₁₀ was associated with an increased risk of CKD.

Spatial and temporal variations of PM2.5 concentrations in Chinese cities during 2015-2019

The study analyzed the current status and changing trends of PM_2.5 pollution, and used Kriging spatial interpolation, spatial autocorrelation analysis, and scan statistics to explore the spatiotemporal characteristics and identify hotspots. The results showed that PM_2.5 pollution during 2015-2019 displayed a downward trend year by year, with a pronounced seasonal difference of higher concentrations in winter and lower concentrations in summer. By 2019, there were still 110 cities (n = 194) failed to meet China's annual grade II air quality standard (35 μg/m³). The spatial distribution of PM_2.5 was characterized by marked heterogeneity, with a significant spatial dependence and clustering characteristics. The pollution hotspots of PM_2.5 were mainly concentrated in eastern and central China, especially in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and its surrounding area. The results of this study will assist Chinese authorities in developing strategies for preventing and controlling air pollution, especially in hotspot regions and during peak periods.

Assessing public health and economic loss associated with black carbon exposure using monitoring and MERRA-2 data

Black carbon (BC) exposure in China continues to be relatively high, prompting researchers to assess BC exposure levels using data from monitoring sites, satellite remote sensing, and models. However, data regarding the application of a combined strategy comprising the analysis of monitoring data and various types of data to simulate BC exposure levels are lacking. Hence, the current study seeks to estimate short- and long-term BC exposure levels by combining national monitoring data with data from the second Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA-2). Furthermore, this study attempts to improve the spatio-temporal resolution of BC exposure levels using Bayesian maximum entropy (BME). The BME model performed well in terms of estimating short- (R² = 0.74 and RMSE = 1.76 μg/m³) and long-term (R² = 0.76 and RMSE = 1.3 μg/m³) exposure. Premature mortalities and economic losses were also assessed by applying localised concentration-response coefficients simulated in China. A total of 74,500 (95% confidence interval (CI): 23,900-124,500) and 538,400 (95% CI: 495,000-581,300) all-cause premature mortality cases were found to be associated with short- and long-term BC exposure, respectively. Meanwhile, short-term BC exposure was associated with economic losses ranging from 7.5 to 13.2 billion US dollars (USD) (1 USD = 6.36 RMB on January 19, 2022) based on amended human capital (AHC) and willingness to pay (WTP), accounting for 0.06%-0.1% of China's total gross domestic product (GDP) in 2017 (1.2 × 10⁴ billion USD), respectively. The economic losses for long-term exposure varied from 53 to 93.2 billion USD based on AHC and WTP, accounting for 0.4%-0.8% of China's total GDP in 2017, respectively.

Spatiotemporal variations of PM2.5 pollution and its dynamic relationships with meteorological conditions in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region

Identifying the effects of meteorological conditions on PM_2.5 pollution is of great significance to explore methods to reduce atmospheric pollution. This study attempts to analyze the spatiotemporal variations of PM_2.5 pollution and its dynamic nexus with meteorological factors in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region from 2015 to 2020 using standard deviation ellipse (SDE) and panel vector autoregressive (PVAR) model. The results indicate that: (1) In 2015-2020, PM_2.5 pollution decreased significantly, indicating air pollution control policies in China have taken effect; Also, it showed a cumulative effect, or there was the path dependence of air pollution. (2) PM_2.5 pollution presented a distribution pattern from northeast to southwest, while the directionality of air pollution has weakened. Based on SDE, PM_2.5 pollution in Cangzhou can reflect the average level in the BTH; (3) Meteorological conditions exhibited a lagged and sustained effect on PM_2.5 pollution. Specifically, the effects of meteorological factors on PM_2.5 presented disequilibrium over time. In the long run, precipitation and temperature mainly showed negative impacts on PM_2.5 pollution, while wind speed, relative humidity and sunshine duration aggravated PM_2.5 pollution in the BTH. This study contributes to extending the study on the spatiotemporal evolution of PM_2.5 pollution and its links with meteorological conditions.

A unified empirical modeling approach for particulate matter and NO2 in a coastal city in China

Modeling air pollutants on a fine spatiotemporal scale is necessary for health studies that focus on critical short-term exposure windows. A unified empirical modeling approach is useful for health studies; however, it is unclear whether this approach can be used in a coastal city for air pollutants driven by local emissions and regional meteorological factors. An advanced empirical modeling approach was used to develop exposure models from October 2012 to December 2019, for particulate matter with aerodynamic diameters less than or equal to 2.5 and 10 μm (PM_2.5 and PM₁₀) and nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) in the coastal city of Shanghai, China. Air pollutant concentrations were obtained from daily measurements at 55 administrative monitoring sites that were integrated into three-day average concentrations. Data on a large array of geographic variables were collected, and their dimensions were reduced using the partial least squares regression method. A geostatistical model using the land-use regression approach in a universal kriging framework was developed to estimate short-term exposure concentrations. The prediction ability of the models were determined by leave-one (site)-out cross-validation (LOOCV) and external validation (EV). Compared to the LOOCV results, the EV results for PM_2.5 and PM₁₀ were consistently reliable, but the EV for NO₂ had a larger root mean squared error. The temporal random effects involved in the model structure were interpreted using sensitivity analyses. This affected the short-term PM_2.5 and PM₁₀ model predictions. This unified empirical modeling approach was successfully used for particulate matter in Shanghai, where air pollution is affected by complex regional and meteorological conditions. These exposure models are going to be applied for making exposure predictions at residential locations for short-term exposure predictions in the "Growth trajectories and air pollution" (GAAP) study in Shanghai that focuses on maternal and early life exposure to air pollutants.

What Is the Role of Night-Time Noise Exposure in Childhood Allergic Disease?

The cause of the allergic disease is known to be multifactorial, and there is growing evidence of environmental factors triggering the disease. Indeed, it is essential to find modifiable environmental factors related to allergic disease. Noise is an environmental pollutant causing various health problems, especially when exposed during the night-time. This study assessed the impact of night-time noise exposure in allergic disease. Subjects were selected from a panel data survey containing questions on allergic disease and related factors. Incidence of allergic disease, covariates, and addresses was derived from survey questionnaires. By applying the Land Use Regression modeling method, each subject’s night-time noise estimates were elicited based on the night-time noise level collected from the noise monitoring site. Association between night-time noise difference rate and incidence of asthma were analyzed by Cox proportional hazard regression. Incidence of allergic disease increased when night-time noise difference was positive compared to the negative difference. Additionally, the incidence of allergic disease increased by per interquartile range of night-time noise difference rate. The result showed that exposure to night-time noise tends to increase the risk of allergic disease. With further studies, the result of our study may serve as supplementary data when determining noise limits.

Estimating PM2.5 concentration using the machine learning GA-SVM method to improve the land use regression model in Shaanxi, China

With rapid economic growth, urbanization and industrialization, fine particulate matter with aerodynamic diameters ≤ 2.5 µm (PM_2.5) has become a major pollutant and shows adverse effects on both human health and the atmospheric environment. Many studies on estimating PM_2.5 concentrations have been performed using statistical regression models and satellite remote sensing. However, the accuracy of PM_2.5 concentration estimates is limited by traditional regression models; machine learning methods have high predictive power, but fewer studies have been performed on the complementary advantages of different approaches. This study estimates PM_2.5 concentrations from satellite remote sensing-derived aerosol optical depth (AOD) products, meteorological data, terrain data and other predictors in 2015 in Shaanxi, China, using a combined genetic algorithm-support vector machine (GA-SVM) method, after which the spatial clustering pattern was explored at the season and year levels. The results indicated that temperature (r = -0.684), precipitation (r = -0.602) and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) (r = -0.523) were significantly negatively correlated with the PM_2.5 concentration, while AOD (r = 0.337) was significantly positively correlated with the PM_2.5 concentration. Compared to conventional land use regression (LUR) and SVM models and previous related studies, the GA-SVM method demonstrated a significantly better prediction accuracy of PM_2.5 concentration, with a higher 10-fold cross-validation coefficient of determination (R²) of 0.84 and lower root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE) of 12.1 μg/m³ and 10.07 μg/m³, respectively. Y-scrambling test shows that the models have no chance correlation. The central and southern parts of Shaanxi have high PM_2.5 concentrations, which are mainly due to the pollutant emissions and meteorological and topographical conditions in those areas. There was a positive spatial agglomeration characteristic of regional PM_2.5 pollution, and the spatial spillover effect of PM_2.5 pollution for seasonal and annual variations does exist. In general, the GA-SVM method is robust and accurately estimates PM_2.5 concentrations via a novel modeling framework application and high-quality spatiotemporal information. It also has great significance for the exploration of PM_2.5 pollution estimation and high-precision mapping methods, especially early warning in high-risk areas. Finally, the prevention and control of atmospheric pollution should take pollution control measures from major cities and surrounding cities, and focus on the joint pollution control measures for plain cities.

When a Generalized Linear Model Meets Bayesian Maximum Entropy: A Novel Spatiotemporal Ground-Level Ozone Concentration Retrieval Method

In China, ground-level ozone has shown an increasing trend and has become a serious ambient pollutant. An accurate spatiotemporal distribution of ground-level ozone concentrations (GOCs) is urgently needed. Generalized linear models (GLMs) and Bayesian maximum entropy (BME) models are practical for predicting GOCs. However, GLMs have limited capacity to capture temporal variations and can miss some short-term and regional patterns, while the performance of BME models may degrade in cases of sparse or imperfect monitoring networks. Thus, to predict nationwide 1 km monthly average GOCs for China, we designed a novel hybrid model containing three modules. (1) A GLM was established to accurately describe the variability in GOCs in the space domain. (2) A BME model incorporating GLM residuals was employed to capture the temporal variability of GOCs in detail. (3) A combination of GLM and BME models was developed based on the specific broad range of each submodel. According to the cross-validation results, the hybrid model exhibited superior performance, with coefficient of determination (R2) values of 0.67. The predictive performance of the large-scale and high-resolution hybrid model is superior to that in previous studies. The nationwide spatiotemporal variability of the GOCs derived from the hybrid model shows that they are valuable indicators for ground-level ozone pollution control and prevention in China.

The application of land use regression model to investigate spatiotemporal variations of PM2.5 in Guangzhou, China: Implications for the public health benefits of PM2.5 reduction

Understanding the intra-city variation of PM_2.5 is important for air quality management and exposure assessment. In this study, to investigate the spatiotemporal variation of PM_2.5 in Guangzhou, we developed land use regression (LUR) models using data from 49 routine air quality monitoring stations. The R², adjust R² and 10-fold cross validation R² for the annual PM_2.5 LUR model were 0.78, 0.72 and 0.66, respectively, indicating the robustness of the model. In all the LUR models, traffic variables (e.g., length of main road and the distance to nearest ancillary) were the most common variables in the LUR models, suggesting vehicle emission was the most important contributor to PM_2.5 and controlling vehicle emissions would be an effective way to reduce PM_2.5. The predicted PM_2.5 exhibited significant variations with different land uses, with the highest value for impervious surfaces, followed by green land, cropland, forest and water areas. Guangzhou as the third largest city that PM_2.5 concentration has achieved CAAQS Grade II guideline in China, it represents a useful case study city to examine the health and economic benefits of further reduction of PM_2.5 to the lower concentration ranges. So, the health and economic benefits of reducing PM_2.5 in Guangzhou was further estimated using the BenMAP model, based on the annual PM_2.5 concentration predicted by the LUR model. The results showed that the avoided all cause mortalities were 992 cases (95% CI: 221-2140) and the corresponding economic benefits were 1478 million CNY (95% CI: 257-2524) (willingness to pay approach) if the annual PM_2.5 concentration can be reduced to the annual CAAQS Grade I guideline value of 15 μg/m³. Our results are expected to provide valuable information for further air pollution control strategies in China.

A new buffer selection strategy for land use regression model of PM2.5 in Xi'an, China

In order to calculate the spatial distribution of high-resolution air-pollutant levels, the land use regression (LUR) model can be an effective method due to the comprehensive consideration of various factors. Traditional LUR models mostly use predefined buffers, which have the disadvantage of not matching high-resolution data well. In order to get a better-fitting model, a few researches have proposed new buffer selection methods. To solve this problem, we propose a new optimal buffer selection method based on the dichotomy to improve the correlation between predicted variables and pollutant concentration. For some socioeconomic data with high spatial resolution that cannot be obtained, for example, building data is used instead of population density data. Compared with the model with the predefined buffers, the model with our buffer selection strategy explained additional 5% variability in measured concentrations, in terms of the R² of the final model. Our model explained 98% of the samples, and the deviation (1.78%) and root mean square error (5.17 μg/m) were small. It means that the LUR model with our buffer selection strategy can be used as a fit method to better describe spatial variability in atmospheric pollutant levels, which will be conducive to epidemiological research and urban environmental planning.

The internal and external effects of air pollution on innovation in China

China is now the world's largest energy consumer, but severe air pollution problems have brought greater pressure to the production and development of its domestic economy. As an unavoidable result of air pollution, PM_2.5 emissions are increasing. Previous literature has focused more on the impact of PM_2.5 on the micro-level such as resident health and company location, yet macro-pattern studies between PM_2.5 and innovation are inadequate. To bridge this gap, our research uses a spatial dynamic panel data model to systematically investigate the internal and external effects of PM_2.5 concentration on innovation in China during the period 2001-2016. After forming a dataset of real-time PM_2.5 concentration from satellite detection and using an innovation index instead of patents, we find a stronger spatial linkage between PM_2.5 concentration and innovation. Thus, PM_2.5 inhibits regional innovation significantly, and this result still exists after using the air mobility index as an instrument variable to alleviate endogenous problems. Lastly, PM_2.5 concentration in neighboring regions also impedes local innovation considerably, indicating a spatial ripple effect of PM_2.5.

Land use regression modelling of PM2.5 spatial variations in different seasons in urban areas

As one of the principal components of haze, fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) has potential negative health effects, causing widespread concern. Identification of the pollutant spatial variation is a prerequisite of understanding ambient air pollution exposure and further improving air quality. Seven urban built-up areas in Liaoning central urban agglomeration (LCUA) were used for land use regression (LUR) modelling of PM_2.5 concentrations using small amounts of spatially aggregated data and to assess the model's seasonal consistency. LUR models explained 52-61% of the variation in the PM_2.5 concentrations at urban scales. The average building floor area was the key predictor in each model, and the percent water area was predictor with a negative coefficient. Good seasonal consistency was observed between the heating-seasonal model and annual average model, showing that the annual average PM_2.5 pollution in the LCUA was mainly influenced by pollution during the heating season. Extending the linear LUR model with regression kriging improved the model's explanatory ability and predictive performance. The predicted PM_2.5 concentrations in Shenyang and Anshan were the highest and that in Yingkou was the lowest. The building three-dimensional variables played important roles in the urban spatial modelling of air pollution.

Investigation of the Impact of Land-Use Distribution on PM2.5 in Weifang: Seasonal Variations

As air pollution becomes highly focused in China, the accurate identification of its influencing factors is critical for achieving effective control and targeted environmental governance. Land-use distribution is one of the key factors affecting air quality, and research on the impact of land-use distribution on air pollution has drawn wide attention. However, considerable studies have mostly used linear regression models, which fail to capture the nonlinear effects of land-use distribution on PM_2.5 (fine particulate matter with a diameter less than or equal to 2.5 microns) and to show how impacts on PM_2.5 vary with land-use magnitudes. In addition, related studies have generally focused on annual analyses, ignoring the seasonal variability of the impact of land-use distribution on PM_2.5, thus leading to possible estimation biases for PM_2.5. This study was designed to address these issues and assess the impacts of land-use distribution on PM_2.5 in Weifang, China. A machine learning statistical model, the boosted regression tree (BRT), was applied to measure nonlinear effects of land-use distribution on PM_2.5, capture how land-use magnitude impacts PM_2.5 across different seasons, and explore the policy implications for urban planning. The main conclusions are that the air quality will significantly improve with an increase in grassland and forest area, especially below 8% and 20%, respectively. When the distribution of construction land is greater than around 10%, the PM_2.5 pollution can be seriously substantially increased with the increment of their areas. The impact of gardens and farmland presents seasonal characteristics. It is noted that as the weather becomes colder, the inhibitory effect of vegetation distribution on the PM_2.5 concentration gradually decreases, while the positive impacts of artificial surface distributions, such as construction land and roads, are aggravated because leaves drop off in autumn (September-November) and winter (December-February). According to the findings of this study, it is recommended that Weifang should strengthen pollution control in winter, for instance, expand the coverage areas of evergreen vegetation like Pinus bungeana Zucc. and Euonymus japonicus Thunb, and increase the width and numbers of branches connecting different main roads. The findings also provide quantitative and optimal land-use planning and strategies to minimize PM_2.5 pollution, referring to the status of regional urbanization and greening construction.

Investigation of the spatially varying relationships of PM2.5 with meteorology, topography, and emissions over China in 2015 by using modified geographically weighted regression

PM_2.5 pollution is caused by multiple factors and determining how these factors affect PM_2.5 pollution is important for haze control. In this study, we modified the geographically weighted regression (GWR) model and investigated the relationships between PM_2.5 and its influencing factors. Experiments covering 368 cities and 9 urban agglomerations were conducted in China in 2015 and more than 20 factors were considered. The modified GWR coefficients (MGCs) were calculated for six variables, including two emission factors (SO₂ and NO₂ concentrations), two meteorological factors (relative humidity and lifted index), and two topographical factors (woodland percentage and elevation). Then the spatial distribution of MGCs was analyzed at city, cluster, and region scales. Results showed that the relationships between PM_2.5 and the different factors varied with location. SO₂ emission positively affected PM_2.5, and the impact was the strongest in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region. The impact of NO₂ was generally smaller than that of SO₂ and could be important in coastal areas. The impact of meteorological factors on PM_2.5 was complicated in terms of spatial variations, with relative humidity and lifted index exerting a strong positive impact on PM_2.5 in Pearl River Delta and Central China, respectively. Woodland percentage mainly influenced PM_2.5 in regions of or near deserts, and elevation was important in BTH and Sichuan. The findings of this study can improve our understanding of haze formation and provide useful information for policy-making.

Mining sequential patterns of PM2.5 pollution between 338 cities in China

Serious PM2.5 air pollution has persistently plagued and endangered most urban areas in China in recent years, and targeted policies are necessary to improve urban air quality ranging from macro policy (national level) to medium policy (city level) to micro policy (site specific). However, the macro-pattern study of air pollution between Chinese cities is inadequate, and not conducive to the formulation of macro-policy. To bridge this gap, we applied a sequential pattern mining algorithm to analyze the spatial-temporal patterns of PM2.5 pollution across Chinese cities during the period 2015 to 2018. The sequential patterns were collected from three levels of granularity on geographic areas and ten temporal scenarios covering time intervals from 10 to 100 h. Many underlying associative relationships were revealed between different cities by the mined patterns. The patterns were heterogeneous and presented five characteristics (i.e., clustering, symmetry, imbalance, decay, and stability). Each of the urban areas under investigation at different granularities was analyzed to identify the occurrence of associative relationships between it and other urban areas; moreover, we determined the degree of severity of such relationships. Our research results provide solid data that can be used as a reference by the various levels of Chinese governments for decision-making; overall, they can be used to improve the design of joint policies to prevent and control PM2.5 pollution in Chinese urban areas.

Stacking machine learning model for estimating hourly PM2.5 in China based on Himawari 8 aerosol optical depth data

Aerosol optical depth (AOD) from polar orbit satellites and meteorological factors have been widely used to estimate concentrations of surface particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter <2.5 μm (PM_2.5). However, estimations with high temporal resolution remain lacking because of the limitations of satellite observations. Here, we used AOD data with a temporal resolution of 1 h provided by a geostationary satellite called Himawari 8 to overcome this problem. We developed a stacking model, which contained three submodels of machine learning, namely, AdaBoost, XGBoost and random forest, stacked through a multiple linear regression model. Then, we estimated the hourly concentrations of PM_2.5 in Central and Eastern China. The accuracy evaluation showed that the proposed stacking model performed better than the single models when applied to the test set, with an average coefficient of determination (R²) of 0.85 and a root-mean-square error (RMSE) of 17.3 μg/m³. Model precision reached its peak at 14:00 (local time), with an R² (RMSE) of 0.92 (12.9 μg/m³). In addition, the spatial and temporal distributions of PM_2.5 in Central and Eastern China were plotted in this study. The North China Plain was determined to be the most polluted area in China, with an annual mean PM_2.5 concentration of 58 μg/m³ during daytime. Moreover, the pollution level of PM_2.5 was the highest in winter, with an average concentration of 73 μg/m³.

A land use regression model of nitrogen dioxide and fine particulate matter in a complex urban core in Lanzhou, China

BACKGROUND

Land use regression (LUR) models have been widely used to estimate air pollution exposures at high spatial resolution. However, few LUR models were developed for rapidly developing urban cores, which have substantially higher densities of population and built-up areas than the surrounding areas within a city's administrative boundary. Further, few studies incorporated vertical variations of air pollution in exposure assessment, which might be important to estimate exposures for people living in high-rise buildings.

OBJECTIVE

A LUR model was developed for the urban core of Lanzhou, China, along with a model of vertical concentration gradients in high-rise buildings.

METHODS

In each of four seasons in 2016-2017, NO₂ was measured using Ogawa badges for 2 weeks at 75 ground-level sites. PM_2.5 was measured using DataRAM for shorter time intervals at a subset (N = 38) of the 75 sites. Vertical profile measurements were conducted on 9 stories at 2 high-rise buildings (N = 18), with one building facing traffic and another facing away from traffic. The average seasonal concentrations of NO₂ and PM_2.5 at ground level were regressed against spatial predictors, including elevation, population, road network, land cover, and land use. The vertical variations were investigated and linked to ground-level predictions with exponential models.

RESULTS

We developed robust LUR models at the ground level for estimated annual averages of NO₂ (R²: 0.71, adjusted R²: 0.67, and Leave-One-Out Cross Validation (LOOCV) R²: 0.64) and PM_2.5 (R²: 0.77, adjusted R²: of 0.73, and LOOCV R²: 0.67) in the urban core of Lanzhou, China. The LUR models for the estimated seasonal averages of NO₂ showed similar patterns. Vertical variation of NO₂ and PM_2.5 differed by windows orientation with respect to traffic, by season or by time of a day. Vertical variation functions incorporated the ground-level LUR predictions, in a form that could allow for exposure assessment in future epidemiological investigations.

CONCLUSIONS

Ground-level NO₂ and PM_2.5 showed substantial spatial variations, explained by traffic and land use patterns. Further, vertical variation of air pollution levels is significant under certain conditions, suggesting that exposure misclassification could occur with traditional LUR that ignores vertical variation. More studies are needed to fully characterize three-dimensional concentration patterns to accurately estimate air pollution exposures for residents in high-rise buildings, but our LUR models reinforce that concentration heterogeneity is not captured by the limited government monitors in the Lanzhou urban area.

Study on Development Sustainability of Atmospheric Environment in Northeast China by Rough Set and Entropy Weight Method

In order to evaluate the atmospheric environment sustainability in the provinces of Northeast China, this paper has constructed a comprehensive evaluation model based on the rough set and entropy weight methods. This paper first constructs a Pressure-State-Response (PSR) model with a pressure layer, state layer and response layer, as well as an atmospheric environment evaluation system consisting of 17 indicators. Then, this paper obtains the weight of different indicators by using the rough set method and conducts equal-width discrete analysis and clustering analysis by using SPSS software. This paper has found that different discrete methods will end up with different reduction sets and multiple indicators sharing the same weight. Therefore, this paper has further introduced the entropy weight method based on the weight solution determined by rough sets and solved the attribute reduction sets of different layers by using the Rosetta software. Finally, this paper has further proved the rationality of this evaluation model for atmospheric environment sustainability by comparing the results with those of the entropy weight method alone and those of the rough set method alone. The results show that the sustainability level of the atmospheric environment in Northeast China provinces has first improved, and then worsened, with the atmospheric environment sustainability level reaching the highest level of 0.9275 in 2014, while dropping to the lowest level of 0.6027 in 2017. Therefore, future efforts should focus on reducing the pressure layer and expanding the response layer. Based on analysis of the above evaluation results, this paper has further offered recommendations and solutions for the improvement of atmospheric environment sustainability in the three provinces of Northeast China.

Improved heavy metal mapping and pollution source apportionment in Shanghai City soils using auxiliary information

Soil heavy metal pollution can be a serious threat to human health and the environment. The accurate mapping of the spatial distribution of soil heavy metal pollutant concentrations enables the detection of high pollution areas and facilitates pollution source apportionment and control. To make full use of auxiliary soil properties information and show that they can improve mapping, a synthesis of the Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME) theory and the Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) model is proposed and implemented in the study of the Shanghai City soils (China). The results showed that, compared to traditional techniques, the proposed BME-GWR synthesis has certain important advantages: (a) it integrates heavy metal measurements and auxiliary information on a sound theoretical basis, and (b) it performs better in terms of both prediction accuracy and implementation flexibility (including the assimilation of multiple data sources). Based on the heavy metal concentration maps generated by BME-GWR, we found that the As, Cr and Pb concentration levels are high in the eastern part of Shanghai, whereas high Cd concentration levels were observed in the northwestern part of the city. Organic carbon and pH were significantly correlated with most of the heavy metals in Shanghai soils. We concluded that Cd pollution is mainly the result of agricultural activities, and that the Cr pollution is attributed to natural sources, whereas Pb and As have compound pollution sources. Future studies should investigate the implementation of BME-GWR in the case of space-time heavy metal mapping and its ability to integrate human activity information and soil category variables.

Association between Exposure to Ambient Air Pollution and Rheumatoid Arthritis in Adults

Environmental factors may play roles in the development of rheumatoid arthritis (RA), and some studies have shown that air pollution was associated with the development of autoimmune disease. This study was designed to investigate the effect of air pollutants on the development of adult RA. A nested case-control cohort study was performed using the National Health Insurance Service-National Sample Cohort during 2002⁻2014 in Korea. Air pollution data were collected from the National Ambient Air Monitoring System (NAMIS), and exposure levels were extrapolated using geographic information systems. The group with RA (n = 444) was compared with a propensity score-matched control group (n = 1776), and one-year average concentrations of air pollution were predicted at each patient's residence. The adjusted binary logistic regression analysis showed a positive association between O₃ exposure and the incidence risk of RA for the third (odds ratios (OR) = 1.45, 95% confidence intervals (CI): 1.08⁻1.96) and fourth (OR = 1.35, 95% CI: 1.00⁻1.83) quartiles in adults over 20 years of age. The third quartile CO exposure was also associated with an increased risk of RA (OR = 1.57, 95% CI: 1.16⁻2.12). The results of this nationwide population-based study showed that a one-year exposure to CO and O₃ in adults was associated with an increased risk of RA.