Long- and short-term health benefits attributable to PM2.5 constituents reductions from 2013 to 2021: A spatiotemporal analysis in China

Long- and short-term exposure to constituents of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) substantially affects human health. However, assessments of the health and economic benefits of reducing PM2.5 constituents are scarce. This study estimates the number of premature deaths from all-cause, cardiovascular (CVD), and respiratory diseases avoided due to reductions in daily and annual average concentrations of PM2.5 constituents. The Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program was used for two scenarios: we used yearly concentrations of PM2.5 constituents from 2013 to 2020 as the baseline concentration surface (Scenario I), and 2021 as the baseline year (Scenario II). With reductions in daily and annual average concentrations of PM2.5 constituents, 309,099 (95 % confidence interval [CI]: 37,265-571,485) and 195,297 (95 % CI: 178,192-211,914) premature deaths were avoided in Scenario I, respectively; meanwhile, 347,296 (95 % CI: 79,258-604,758) and 201,567 (95 % CI: 185,038-217,530) premature deaths were avoided in Scenario II, respectively. Moreover, economic benefits associated with the prevention of premature deaths were estimated using the willingness to pay (WTP) and modified human capital (AHC) methods. The total estimated economic benefits amounted to 563.32 billion RMB (WTP) and 322.03 billion RMB (AHC) in Scenario I. In Scenario II, the associated economic benefits were 751.48 billion RMB (WTP) and 427.56 billion RMB (AHC), accounting for 0.657 and 0.374 % of China's gross domestic product in 2021, respectively. Additionally, we analyzed the sensitivity of CVD-related premature deaths to the concentrations of PM2.5 constituents, and found that CVD-related premature deaths were more sensitive to black carbon.

New Insight into the Measurements of Particle-Bound Metals in the Urban and Remote Atmospheres of the Sarajevo Canton and Modeled Impacts of Particulate Air Pollution in Bosnia and Herzegovina

The Sarajevo Canton Winter Field Campaign 2018 (SAFICA) was a project that took place in winter 2017-2018 with an aim to characterize the chemical composition of aerosol in the Sarajevo Canton, Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH), which has one of the worst air qualities in Europe. This paper presents the first characterization of the metals in PM10 (particulate matter aerodynamic diameters ≤10 μm) from continuous filter samples collected during an extended two-months winter period at the urban background Sarajevo and remote Ivan Sedlo sites. We report the results of 18 metals detected by inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS) and electrothermal atomic absorption spectrometry (ETAAS). The average mass concentrations of metals were higher at the Sarajevo site than at Ivan Sedlo and ranged from 0.050 ng/m3 (Co) to 188 ng/m3 (Fe) and from 0.021 ng/m3 (Co) to 61.8 ng/m3 (Fe), respectively. The BenMAP-CE model was used for estimating the annual BiH health (50% decrease in PM2.5 would save 4760+ lives) and economic benefits (costs of $2.29B) of improving the air quality. Additionally, the integrated energy and health assessment with the ExternE model provided an initial estimate of the additional health cost of BiH's energy system.

The application of land use regression model to investigate spatiotemporal variations of PM2.5 in Guangzhou, China: Implications for the public health benefits of PM2.5 reduction

Understanding the intra-city variation of PM_2.5 is important for air quality management and exposure assessment. In this study, to investigate the spatiotemporal variation of PM_2.5 in Guangzhou, we developed land use regression (LUR) models using data from 49 routine air quality monitoring stations. The R², adjust R² and 10-fold cross validation R² for the annual PM_2.5 LUR model were 0.78, 0.72 and 0.66, respectively, indicating the robustness of the model. In all the LUR models, traffic variables (e.g., length of main road and the distance to nearest ancillary) were the most common variables in the LUR models, suggesting vehicle emission was the most important contributor to PM_2.5 and controlling vehicle emissions would be an effective way to reduce PM_2.5. The predicted PM_2.5 exhibited significant variations with different land uses, with the highest value for impervious surfaces, followed by green land, cropland, forest and water areas. Guangzhou as the third largest city that PM_2.5 concentration has achieved CAAQS Grade II guideline in China, it represents a useful case study city to examine the health and economic benefits of further reduction of PM_2.5 to the lower concentration ranges. So, the health and economic benefits of reducing PM_2.5 in Guangzhou was further estimated using the BenMAP model, based on the annual PM_2.5 concentration predicted by the LUR model. The results showed that the avoided all cause mortalities were 992 cases (95% CI: 221-2140) and the corresponding economic benefits were 1478 million CNY (95% CI: 257-2524) (willingness to pay approach) if the annual PM_2.5 concentration can be reduced to the annual CAAQS Grade I guideline value of 15 μg/m³. Our results are expected to provide valuable information for further air pollution control strategies in China.

A study of cardiorespiratory related mortality as a result of exposure to black carbon

INTRODUCTION

Air pollution is a global phenomenon which invariably leads to a serious environmental and health related sequalae. "Black carbon" (BC), a subset of fine particulate matter ≤2.5 μm (PM_2.5), is a fossil fuel emission by-product and has more recently been recognized as a major health hazard. The objective of this study is to statistically analyze the BC concentration and its correlation with cardiorespiratory related mortality and to estimate the benefits of BC reduction on the health of the population in the capital city of Tehran.

METHODS

We analyzed the ambient air BC concentration and its correlation with cardiorespiratory related mortality and conducted health impact assessment of BC in Tehran (Jan 2018-Jan 2019). The data pertaining to BC concentration was obtained from Tehran's four major pollution monitoring stations. The mortality data was obtained from Tehran's cemetery registry. We calculated and analyzed BC concentration statistics including the mean, standard deviation, coefficient of variation, skewness, and kurtosis. We then assessed the cross-correlation and temporal relationship (0-7 days) between the daily mean concentration of BC for the entire city and cardiorespiratory related mortality. The BenMAP software was utilized to estimate the potential reduction in cardiorespiratory related mortality rates if BC concentration is reduced. Three hypothetical scenarios were employed in the analysis, utilizing the BenMAP software: (I) BC concentration was completely removed from the ambient air; (II) BC concentration was eliminated, and the remaining (non-BC portion of) PM_2.5 concentration was reverted to the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)'s standard level (i.e., 35 μg/m³); and (III) The BC emission during the night (22:00 h-6:00 h, when heavy-duty vehicles (HDVs) are allowed to commute in the city) was distributed throughout the whole day. Since the planetary boundary layer during daytime is much higher than that of nighttime, with the same rate of emission, lower concentrations are spread during the whole day.

RESULTS

The trend of BC concentration variation revealed a persistently higher emission of BC during the nighttime, which is consistent with the large-scale operation of HDVs during these hours in the city of Tehran. We observed a direct correlation between BC concentration and cardiorespiratory related mortality. Analysis also showed a 1.4-day lag period from the time of exposure to BC polluted air and respiratory related deaths, and 2 days for cardiovascular related deaths. As a result, the reduction in BC has significant beneficial effects in reducing potentially preventable cardiorespiratory related mortality. The aforementioned three scenarios for age groups of 30 and above yielded the following results: (I) 11,369 (126 per 100,000 population), (II) 15,386 (171 per 100,000 population), and (III) 2552 (28 per 100,000 population) potentially preventable all-cause (including cardiorespiratory) related deaths annually.

CONCLUSIONS

The BC concentration is relatively high in Tehran and HDVs have a major role in emission of this pollutant. A direct correlation between BC concentration and cardiorespiratory related mortality is observed. There are considerable health benefits in reducing BC concentration in this city. Our findings highlight the urgent need to actively curtail emissions of this harmful pollutant. This can be achieved through utilizing control mechanisms such as particulate filters or amending traffic laws.

Quantifying public health benefits of PM2.5 reduction and spatial distribution analysis in China

In recent years, particulate matter (PM) air pollution has become a significant and growing public health problem in China. In this study, the daily PM_2.5 exposure level at a spatial resolution of 100 km² was simulated based on the data of 1328 monitoring sites and the Voronoi Neighborhood Averaging (VNA) interpolation method. The results reveal that the daily mean PM_2.5 concentration reduced from 47.82 μg/m³ (2016) to 40.87 μg/m³ (2018), a reduction of 14.53%. We first calculated the heath impacts and economic benefits of this reduction (Scenario 1) by using Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program (BenMAP). The estimated avoided premature mortalities for all-cause, cardiovascular diseases, respiratory diseases, and lung cancer were in the range of 7214 to 81,681 cases (total of 154,176 cases). The estimated economic benefits based on willingness to pay (WTP) ranged from 3.96 to 44.85 billion RMB (total of 84.66 billion RMB). Moreover, the PM_2.5 concentration in the control scenario was rolled back to the Grade I standards (35 μg/m³, Scenario 2). The avoided deaths are in the range of 58,820 to 590,464 cases (total of 1,217,671 cases). The estimated monetary value of the avoided cases of all health endpoints range from 36.63 to 367.66 billion RMB based on WTP (total of 758.21 billion RMB). In addition, the spatial autocorrelation analysis reveals that the distribution of both avoided premature mortality and economic benefits exhibit a certain spatial aggregation.

A database for evaluating the InMAP, APEEP, and EASIUR reduced complexity air-quality modeling tools

Policy analysts and researchers often use models to translate expected emissions changes from pollution control policies to estimates of air pollution changes and resulting changes in health impacts. These models can include both photochemical Eulerian grid models or reduced complexity models; these latter models make simplifying assumptions about the emissions-to-air quality relationship as a means of reducing the computational time needed to simulate air quality. This manuscript presents a new database of photochemical- and reduced complexity-modelled changes in annual average particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter less than 2.5 μm and associated health effects and economic values for five case studies representing different emissions control scenarios. The research community is developing an increasing number of reduced complexity models as lower-cost and more expeditious alternatives to full form Eulerian photochemical grid models such as the Comprehensive Air-Quality Model with eXtensions (CAMx) and the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model. A comprehensive evaluation of reduced complexity models can demonstrate the extent to which these tools capture complex chemical and physical processes when representing emission control options. Systematically comparing reduced complexity model predictions to benchmarks from photochemical grid models requires a consistent set of input parameters across all systems. Developing such inputs is resource intensive and consequently the data that we have developed and shared (https://github.com/epa-kpc/RFMEVAL) provide a valuable resource for others to evaluate reduced complexity models. The dataset includes inputs and outputs representing 5 emission control scenarios, including sector-based regulatory policy scenarios focused on on-road mobile sources and electrical generating units (EGUs) as well as hypothetical across-the-board reductions to emissions from cement kilns, refineries, and pulp and paper facilities. Model inputs, outputs, and run control files are provided for the Air Pollution Emission Experiments and Policy Analysis (APEEP) version 2 and 3, Intervention Model for Air Pollution (InMAP), Estimating Air pollution Social Impact Using Regression (EASIUR), and EPA's source apportionment benefit-per-ton reduced complexity models. For comparison, photochemical grid model annual average PM2.5 output is provided for each emission scenario. Further, inputs are also provided for the Environmental Benefits and Mapping Community Edition (BenMAP-CE) tool to generate county level health benefits and monetized health damages along with output files for benchmarking and intercomparison. Monetized health impacts are also provided from EASIUR and APEEP which can provide these outside the BenMAP-CE framework. The database will allow researchers to more easily compare reduced complexity model predictions against photochemical grid model predictions.

PM2.5-Related Health Economic Benefits Evaluation Based on Air Improvement Action Plan in Wuhan City, Middle China

On the basis of PM_2.5 data of the national air quality monitoring sites, local population data, and baseline all-cause mortality rate, PM_2.5-related health economic benefits of the Air Improvement Action Plan implemented in Wuhan in 2013–2017 were investigated using health-impact and valuation functions. Annual avoided premature deaths driven by the average concentration of PM_2.5 decrease were evaluated, and the economic benefits were computed by using the value of statistical life (VSL) method. Results showed that the number of avoided premature deaths in Wuhan are 21,384 (95% confidence interval (CI): 15,004 to 27,255) during 2013–2017, due to the implementation of the Air Improvement Action Plan. According to the VSL method, the obtained economic benefits of Huangpi, Wuchang, Hongshan, Xinzhou, Jiang’an, Hanyang, Jiangxia, Qiaokou, Jianghan, Qingshan, Caidian, Dongxihu, and Hannan District were 8.55, 8.19, 8.04, 7.39, 5.78, 4.84, 4.37, 4.04, 3.90, 3.30, 2.87, 2.42, and 0.66 billion RMB (1 RMB = 0.1417 USD On 14 October 2019), respectively. These economic benefits added up to 64.35 billion RMB (95% CI: 45.15 to 82.02 billion RMB), accounting for 4.80% (95% CI: 3.37% to 6.12%) of the total GDP of Wuhan in 2017. Therefore, in the process of formulating a regional air quality improvement scheme, apart from establishing hierarchical emission-reduction standards and policies, policy makers should give integrated consideration to the relationship between regional economic development, environmental protection and residents’ health benefits. Furthermore, for improving air quality, air quality compensation mechanisms can be established on the basis of the status quo and trends of air quality, population distribution, and economic development factors.

[Health Benefit Evaluation for Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan in China]

To quantitatively assess the health benefits brought by the implementation of the Action Plan of Air Pollution Prevention and Control, we firstly analyzed the spatial and temporal changes of PM_2.5 population-weighted concentrations over China from 2013 to 2017. The BenMAP model was used to analyze the differences in premature death between the PM_2.5 baseline scenario in 2013 and the control scenario in 2017 in 338 prefecture-level cities nationwide, so as to quantitatively analyze the number of premature deaths in 31 provinces. The results show that compared with other provinces, the largest reduction in premature deaths due to the significant decrease of PM_2.5 concentration occurred in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and its surrounding regions, and the environmental health benefits from air quality have been greatly improved. The results show that from 2013 to 2017 the population weighted PM_2.5 concentration was decreasing year by year due to the significant decrease in PM_2.5 concentration; Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, and the surrounding areas witnessed the largest reduction in premature deaths. In 2017, the number of avoided premature deaths in 280 prefecture-level cities nationwide increased, but declined in 58 cities. Taking the target value of the first phase of the WHO transition period (an annual average PM_2.5 concentration of 35 μg·m^-3) as the control scenario, it is estimated that the number of premature deaths in 2013 was approximately 101293, and in 2017 was approximately 41080. The implementation of the Action Plan helped to avoid approximately 60213 premature deaths. According to the method of 'willingness to pay', the monetary benefits are estimated to be approximately 54.97 billion yuan.

Estimation of health and economic benefits based on ozone exposure level with high spatial-temporal resolution by fusing satellite and station observations

In recent years, ozone pollution has become more and more serious in China. Several epidemiological studies have demonstrated the correlation between short-term ozone exposure and several health risks including all-cause mortality, cardiovascular mortality, and respiratory mortality. In this study, the daily ozone exposure levels with 10 km × 10 km resolution were estimated based on satellite data derived from Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) and the monitoring data. The health impacts for potential decrease in the daily ozone concentration and the corresponding economic benefits in 2016 were estimated by applying the environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program-Community Edition (BenMAP-CE) model. By reducing the daily maximum 8-h average concentration of ozone to 100 μg/m³, the estimated avoided all-cause mortalities were 120 × 10³ (95% confidence interval (CI): 67 × 10³, 160 × 10³) cases and the correspondingly economic benefits ranged from 36 to 64 billion CNY using amended human capital (AHC) and willingness to pay (WTP) method in 2016. If the daily maximum 8-h average concentration of ozone were rolled back to 70 μg/m³, the estimated avoided all-cause mortalities were 160 × 10³ (95% CI: 98 × 10³, 230 × 10³) cases and economic benefits ranged from 54 to 95 billion CNY based on AHC and WTP methods.

Public health benefits of reducing exposure to ambient fine particulate matter in South Africa

Air pollution is a growing problem in developing countries, and there exists a wide range of evidence documenting the large health and productivity losses associated with high concentrations of pollutants. South Africa is a developing country with high levels of air pollution in some regions, and the costs of air pollution on human health and economic growth in South Africa are still uncertain. The environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program (BenMAP) model was applied to South Africa using local data on population, mortality rates, and concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM_2.5), as well as mortality risk coefficients from the epidemiological literature. BenMAP estimates the number of premature deaths that would likely have been avoided if South African air quality levels met the existing annual National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) of 20 μg m^-3, and the more stringent World Health Organization (WHO) guideline for annual average PM_2.5 of 10 μg m^-3. We estimate 14,000 avoided premature mortalities in 2012 if all of South Africa met the existing NAAQS annual average standard for PM_2.5. These avoided cases of mortality have an estimated monetary value of $14.0 billion (US2011$), which is equivalent to 2.2% of South Africa's 2012 GDP (PPP, US2011$). We estimate 28,000 avoided premature mortalities if the more stringent WHO guideline for annual average PM_2.5 is met across South Africa, which when expressed as a national burden is equivalent to 6% of all deaths in South Africa being attributable to PM_2.5 exposure. These avoided cases of mortality have an estimated monetary value of $29.1 billion, which is equivalent to 4.5% of South Africa's 2012 GDP. These results show that there are significant public health benefits to lowering PM_2.5 concentrations across South Africa, with correspondingly high economic benefits.

Estimation of health benefits from air quality improvement using the MODIS AOD dataset in Seoul, Korea

BACKGROUND

Exposure to fine particles in the atmosphere can adversely affect health and even lead to premature death. Recently, South Korea has attracted attention because of its rapid increase in the concentration of Particulate Matter (PM).

OBJECTIVES

We estimated the economic benefits of reducing PM₁₀ in Seoul, South Korea, based on MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD). Based on the retrieved PM₁₀ data, we estimated its effects on overall health in each district of Seoul, Korea between 2014 and 2015.

METHODS

The relationships between MODIS AOD and ground-based PM₁₀ data were identified in different seasons in South Korea between 2012 and 2013 using the linear regression model. The health benefits were estimated by the Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program (Benmap) using the scenarios from the World Health Organization (WHO).

RESULTS

The correlation between MODIS AOD and PM₁₀ concentration differed with the season. There was a higher correlation between MODIS AOD and PM₁₀ concentration in winter (R = 0.57) than there was in other seasons. Based on the MODIS AOD, the average annual PM₁₀ concentration in Seoul was higher in 2014 than it was in 2015, at values of 45.7 μg/m³, and 41.6 μg/m³, respectively. The greatest economic benefit of reducing PM₁₀ concentration (WHO annual standard of 20 μg/m³) was in 2014. This benefit was estimated to be 7022 (95% CI: 599, 20496), 2617 (95% CI: 216, 7750), and 1328 (95% CI: -159, 4679) billion KRW for all-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortalities in 2014 and 2015, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

These results demonstrate that, despite considerable improvements in air quality in recent decades, there is still a need for countermeasures to prevent economic loss due to air pollution in Seoul.

Source apportionment of VOCs and their impact on air quality and health in the megacity of Seoul

The source apportionment of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) was examined using receptor models (positive matrix factorization and chemical mass balance) and a chemical transport model (CTM). The receptor model-based analysis was performed using the datasets collected from four different sites from the megacity of Seoul during the years 2013-2015. The contributions of VOC emission sources to ozone (O₃) and PM_2.5 concentrations and the subsequent health effects in the study area were also assessed during a photochemically active period (June 2015) using a three-dimensional CTM, Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ), and the Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program (BenMAP). The solvent use and the on-road mobile emission sources were found to exert dominant controls on the VOC levels observed in the target city. VOCs transported from regions outside of Seoul accounted for a significant proportion (up to approximately 35%) of ambient VOC levels during the study period. The solvent use accounted for 3.4% of the ambient O₃ concentrations during the day (daily mean of 2.6%) and made insignificant contributions to PM_2.5 (<1%) during the simulation period. Biogenic VOC made insignificant contributions to O₃ (<1%) and a small contribution to PM_2.5 during the day (5.6% with a daily mean of 2.4%). The number of premature deaths attributed indirectly (O₃ and PM_2.5 formations via the oxidation of VOCs) to solvent use is expected to be significant.

Estimating short-term mortality and economic benefit attributable to PM10 exposure in China based on BenMAP

With the rapidly booming economy, China has been suffering from serious particulate matter (PM) pollution in recent years. In order to improve the air quality, Chinese government issued a new China National Ambient Air Quality Standard (No. GB3095-2012) in 2012. In this study, PM₁₀ exposure level was simulated based on the data of 912 newly constructed monitoring sites and Voronoi Neighborhood Averaging (VNA) interpolation method. It is widely accepted that PM₁₀ can cause short-term health effects. We calculated the short-term health benefit due to decreasing PM₁₀ concentration to the levels of China National Ambient Air Quality Standard based on Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program (BenMAP). Our results indicated that if the daily average concentration of PM₁₀ reduced to the daily Grade II standard (150 μg/m³), the avoided deaths for all cause, cardiovascular disease, and respiratory disease would be 82,000 (95%CI: 49,000-120,000), 56,000 (95%CI: 34,000-78,000), and 16,000 (95%CI: 10,000-22,000) in 2014, respectively. The economic benefits of avoiding deaths due to all cause for rolling back the concentration of PM₁₀ to the level of 50 μg/m³ were estimated to be 240 billion CNY and 16 billion CNY using willingness to pay (WTP) and human capital (HC) methods, respectively, which accounted for 0.38% (95%CI: 0.11-0.64%) and 0.03% (95%CI: 0.02-0.03%) of the total annual gross domestic product (GDP) of China in 2014.

Assessing the Potential of Land Use Modification to Mitigate Ambient NO₂ and Its Consequences for Respiratory Health

Understanding how local land use and land cover (LULC) shapes intra-urban concentrations of atmospheric pollutants-and thus human health-is a key component in designing healthier cities. Here, NO₂ is modeled based on spatially dense summer and winter NO₂ observations in Portland-Hillsboro-Vancouver (USA), and the spatial variation of NO₂ with LULC investigated using random forest, an ensemble data learning technique. The NO2 random forest model, together with BenMAP, is further used to develop a better understanding of the relationship among LULC, ambient NO₂ and respiratory health. The impact of land use modifications on ambient NO₂, and consequently on respiratory health, is also investigated using a sensitivity analysis. We find that NO₂ associated with roadways and tree-canopied areas may be affecting annual incidence rates of asthma exacerbation in 4-12 year olds by +3000 per 100,000 and -1400 per 100,000, respectively. Our model shows that increasing local tree canopy by 5% may reduce local incidences rates of asthma exacerbation by 6%, indicating that targeted local tree-planting efforts may have a substantial impact on reducing city-wide incidence of respiratory distress. Our findings demonstrate the utility of random forest modeling in evaluating LULC modifications for enhanced respiratory health.

Quantifying public health benefits of environmental strategy of PM2.5 air quality management in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, China

In 2013, China issued "Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan (Action Plan)" to improve air quality. To assess the benefits of this program in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region, where the density of population and emissions vary greatly, we simulated the air quality benefit based on BenMAP to satisfy the Action Plan. In this study, we estimate PM_2.5 concentration using Voronoi spatial interpolation method on a grid with a spatial resolution of 1×1km². Combined with the exposure-response function between PM_2.5 concentration and health endpoints, health effects of PM_2.5 exposure are analyzed. The economic loss is assessed by using the willingness to pay (WTP) method and human capital (HC) method. When the PM_2.5 concentration falls by 25% in BTH and reached 60μg/m³ in Beijing, the avoiding deaths will be in the range of 3175 to 14051 based on different functions each year. Of the estimated mortality attributable to all causes, 3117 annual deaths were due to lung cancer, 1924 - 6318 annual deaths were due to cardiovascular, and 343 - 1697 annual deaths were due to respiratory. Based on WTP, the estimated monetary values for the avoided cases of all cause mortality, cardiovascular mortality, respiratory mortality and lung cancer ranged from 1110 to 29632, 673 to 13325, 120 to 3579, 1091 to 6574 million yuan, respectively. Based on HC, the corresponding values for the avoided cases of these four mortalities were 267 to 1178, 161 to 529, 29 to 143 and 261 million yuan, respectively.

Assessment of population exposure to PM2.5 for mortality in China and its public health benefit based on BenMAP

Along with the rapid socioeconomic development, air pollution in China has become a severe problem. One component of air pollution, in particular, PM_2.5 has aroused wide public concern because of its high concentration. In this study, data were collected from over 900 monitoring sites of the newly constructed PM_2.5 monitoring network in China. The interpolation methods were used to simulate the PM_2.5 exposure level of China especially in rural areas, thus reflecting the spatial variation of PM_2.5 pollution. We calculated the health benefit caused by PM_2.5 in China in 2014 based on Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program (BenMAP), assuming achievement of China National Ambient Air Quality Standard (No. GB3095-2012). By reducing the annual average concentration of PM_2.5 to the annual Grade II standard (35 μg/m³), the avoided deaths for cardiovascular disease, respiratory disease and lung cancer could reach 89,000 (95% CI, 8000-170,000), 47,000 (95% CI, 3000-91,000) and 32,000 (95% CI, 6000-58,000) per year using long term health function, respectively. The attributable fractions of cardiovascular disease, respiratory disease and lung cancer to all cause were 42%, 22% and 15%, respectively. The total economic benefits for rolling back the concentration of PM_2.5 to the level of 35 μg/m³ were estimated to be 260 (95%CI: (73, 440) billion RMB and 72 (95%CI: (45, 99) billion RMB using willingness to pay (WTP) and human capital (HC) methods, respectively, which account for 0.40% (95%CI: (0.11%, 0.69%) and 0.11% (95%CI: (0.07%, 0.15%) of the total annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of China in 2014.

The contribution of motor vehicle emissions to ambient fine particulate matter public health impacts in New York City: a health burden assessment

BACKGROUND

On-road vehicles are an important source of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) in cities, but spatially varying traffic emissions and vulnerable populations make it difficult to assess impacts to inform policy and the public.

METHODS

We estimated PM2.5-attributable mortality and morbidity from on-road vehicle generated air pollution in the New York City (NYC) region using high-spatial-resolution emissions estimates, air quality modeling, and local health incidence data to evaluate variations in impacts by vehicle class, neighborhood, and area socioeconomic status. We developed multiple 'zero-out' emission scenarios focused on regional and local cars, trucks, and buses in the NYC region. We simulated PM2.5 concentrations using the Community Multi-scale Air Quality Model at a 1-km spatial resolution over NYC and combined modeled estimates with monitored data from 2010 to 2012. We applied health impact functions and local health data to quantify the PM2.5-attributable health burden on NYC residents within 42 city neighborhoods.

RESULTS

We estimate that all on-road mobile sources in the NYC region contribute to 320 (95 % Confidence Interval (CI): 220-420) deaths and 870 (95 % CI: 440-1280) hospitalizations and emergency department visits annually within NYC due to PM2.5 exposures, accounting for 5850 (95 % CI: 4020-7620) years of life lost. Trucks and buses within NYC accounted for the largest share of on-road mobile-attributable ambient PM2.5, contributing up to 14.9 % of annual average levels across 1-km grid cells, and were associated with 170 (95 % CI: 110-220) PM2.5-attributable deaths each year. These contributions were not evenly distributed, with high poverty neighborhoods experiencing a larger share of the exposure and health burden than low poverty neighborhoods.

CONCLUSION

Reducing motor vehicle emissions, especially from trucks and buses, could produce significant health benefits and reduce disparities in impacts. Our high-spatial-resolution modeling approach could improve assessment of on-road vehicle health impacts in other cities.

Enhancing the Characterization of Epistemic Uncertainties in PM2.5 Risk Analyses

The Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program (BenMAP) is a software tool developed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) that is widely used inside and outside of EPA to produce quantitative estimates of public health risks from fine particulate matter (PM2.5 ). This article discusses the purpose and appropriate role of a risk analysis tool to support risk management deliberations, and evaluates the functions of BenMAP in this context. It highlights the importance in quantitative risk analyses of characterization of epistemic uncertainty, or outright lack of knowledge, about the true risk relationships being quantified. This article describes and quantitatively illustrates sensitivities of PM2.5 risk estimates to several key forms of epistemic uncertainty that pervade those calculations: the risk coefficient, shape of the risk function, and the relative toxicity of individual PM2.5 constituents. It also summarizes findings from a review of U.S.-based epidemiological evidence regarding the PM2.5 risk coefficient for mortality from long-term exposure. That review shows that the set of risk coefficients embedded in BenMAP substantially understates the range in the literature. We conclude that BenMAP would more usefully fulfill its role as a risk analysis support tool if its functions were extended to better enable and prompt its users to characterize the epistemic uncertainties in their risk calculations. This requires expanded automatic sensitivity analysis functions and more recognition of the full range of uncertainty in risk coefficients.