Estimating the health and economic burden of shipping related air pollution in the Iberian Peninsula

Comprehensive economic impact assessment of regional shipping emissions: A case study of Shanghai, China

Shipping emissions have a direct negative impact on the ecological environment, residents' health and social economy of port cities. However, the relevant literature seldom focuses on the quantitative analysis of economic losses. A Regional CGE (RCGE) model with shipping emissions and diffusion is constructed to evaluate the comprehensive economic impact on Shanghai in this paper. It is found that: (1) the direct economic loss caused by shipping emissions to Shanghai is about RMB 1.017 billion, of which SO2, NOx, PM2.5 and PM10 are 0.2587 billion, 0.2776 billion, 0.2057 billion and 0.2304 billion respectively. (2) the GDP changes under three scenarios of economic loss, environmental protection investment and pollution taxes are -0.07 %, -0.02 %, and - 0.014 % respectively in 2019. (3) some factors, such as innovation of shipping emission technology and optimization of energy structure, will not only reduce shipping pollutant emissions but also promote the coordinated development of environment, economy and society.

Effects of ambient air pollution from shipping on mortality: A systematic review

BACKGROUND

Shipping contributes to air pollution causing adverse health effects. We conducted for the first time a systematic review on the health and economic impacts of ambient air pollution from shipping emissions.

METHODS

We performed a systematic search in PubMed, Web of Science, EBSCO (Medline), and Scopus of all time up to December 2023. We then inter-compared semi-quantitatively the results of the included eligible studies.

RESULTS

We identified 23 eligible studies, 22 applying health impact assessment, and 1 using epidemiological methods. These studies used different methods for the evaluation of emissions, dispersion, and exposure, and for the exposure-mortality risk functions for exposure to shipping emissions for 1-2 years. The estimated excess global all-cause mortality from six studies ranged between 1 and 5 deaths per 100,000 person-years. However, the heterogeneity of the methods and critical gaps in the reporting seriously limited the synthesis of the evidence on health and economic effects of shipping emissions. Sufficient spatial and temporal resolutions in both dispersion and exposure modeling, as well as presentation of uncertainties is needed. Health impact assessment should present the results with all the main risk functions and population attributable risks, and the magnitude of the effect should be expressed in excess number per a given person-time or per population size. Economic effects should also cover work productivity, mental well-being, and cognitive functions.

CONCLUSIONS

We recommend that future studies should properly evaluate and report the uncertainty ranges and the confidence limits of the results. Rigorous studies are needed on multipollutant exposures, exposures from various source categories, and exposures attributed to various particulate matter measures. Studies should report the health impact measures in a format that facilitates straightforward inter-study comparisons. Further research should also specifically report the used grid spacings and resolutions and evaluate whether these are optimal for the task.

Reconsidering gas as clean energy: Switching to electricity for household cooking to reduce NO2-attributed disease burden

Nitrogen dioxide (NO2) is a prevalent air pollutant in urban areas, originating from outdoor sources, household gas consumption, and secondhand smoke. The limited evaluation of the disease burden attributable to NO2, encompassing different health effects and contributions from various sources, impedes our understanding from a public health perspective. Based on modeled NO2 exposure concentrations, their exposure-response relationships with lung cancer, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and diabetes mellitus, and baseline disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), we estimated that 1,675 (655-2,624) thousand DALYs were attributable to NO2 in urban China in 2019 [138 (54-216) billion Chinese yuan (CNY) economic losses]. The transition from gas to electricity for household cooking was estimated to reduce the attributable economic losses by 35%. This reduction falls within the range of reductions achieved when outdoor air meets the World Health Organization interim target 3 and air quality guidelines for annual NO2, highlighting the significance of raising awareness of gas as a polluting household energy for cooking. These findings align with global sustainable development initiatives, providing a sustainable solution to promote public health while potentially mitigating climate change.

Health and economic burden of wildland fires PM2.5-related pollution in Portugal - A longitudinal study

Portugal has been affected by wildland fires that destroy thousands of hectares of forest, causing damage to the environment and to the exposed populations. This study aims to assess the influence of wildland fire emissions on air quality, its effect on population health and the related costs, between 2015 and 2018 in Portugal. The cause-specific mortality due to PM2.5 was calculated considering the exposure for five endpoints in adults, twelve age groups for adults and considering children under five years old. The contribution of wildfire emissions to PM2.5 concentrations in Portugal was assessed through EMEP-MSC/W model. Results showed that the average annual fire emissions of PM2.5, CO, CH4, CO2 and NO2 a significant and continuous increase was observed during the first three years (2015, 2016 and 2017) for all pollutants, followed by a decrease in 2018, with values lower than those observed in 2015. Regarding the long-term exposure to PM2.5 emitted by fires a total of 32, 93, 189 and 31 deaths, corresponding to a cost of 59, 174, 360 and 60 million EUR in 2015, 2016, 2017 and 2018, respectively, were estimated. On the other hand, in the first three years an increase in years of life lost (YLL) values of 496, 1608 and 3092 was observed, corresponding to a cost of 16, 54 and 105 million EUR, respectively, followed by a decrease in 2018 with a YLL of 480, corresponding to a cost of 17 M€.

Humic-like Substances (HULIS) in Ship Engine Emissions: Molecular Composition Effected by Fuel Type, Engine Mode, and Wet Scrubber Usage

Humic-like substances (HULIS), known for their substantial impact on the atmosphere, are identified in marine diesel engine emissions obtained from five different fuels at two engine loads simulating real world scenarios as well as the application of wet sulfur scrubbers. The HULIS chemical composition is characterized by electrospray ionization (ESI) ultrahigh resolution mass spectrometry and shown to contain partially oxidized alkylated polycyclic aromatic compounds as well as partially oxidized aliphatic compounds, both including abundant nitrogen- and sulfur-containing species, and clearly different to HULIS emitted from biomass burning. Fuel properties such as sulfur content and aromaticity as well as the fuel combustion efficiency and engine mode are reflected in the observed HULIS composition. When the marine diesel engine is operated below the optimum engine settings, e.g., during maneuvering in harbors, HULIS-C emission factors are increased (262-893 mg kg-1), and a higher number of HULIS with a shift toward lower degree of oxidation and higher aromaticity is detected. Additionally, more aromatic and aliphatic CHOS compounds in HULIS were detected, especially for high-sulfur fuel combustion. The application of wet sulfur scrubbers decreased the HULIS-C emission factors by 4-49% but also led to the formation of new HULIS compounds. Overall, our results suggest the consideration of marine diesel engines as a relevant regional source of HULIS emissions.

An empirical and modelling approach to the evaluation of cruise ships' influence on air quality: The case of La Paz, Mexico

Maritime activity has diverse environmental consequences impacts in port areas, especially for air quality, and the post-COVID-19 cruise tourism market's potential to recover and grow is causing new environmental concerns in expanding port cities. This research proposes an empirical and modelling approach for the evaluation of cruise ships' influence on air quality concerning NO2 and SO2 in the city of La Paz (Mexico) using indirect measurements. EPA emission factors and the AERMOD modelling system coupled to WRF were used to model dispersions, while street-level mobile monitoring data of air quality from two days of 2018 were used and processed using a radial base function interpolator. The local differential Moran's Index was estimated at the intersection level using both datasets and a co-location clustering analysis was performed to address spatial constancy and to identify the pollution levels. The modelled results showed that cruise ships' impact on air quality had maximum values of 13.66 μg/m3 for NO2 and 15.71 μg/m3 for SO2, while background concentrations of 8.80 for NOx and 0.05 for SOx (μg/m3) were found by analysing the LISA index values for intersections not influenced by port pollution. This paper brings insights to the use of hybrid methodologies as an approach to studying the influence of multiple-source pollutants on air quality in contexts totally devoid of environmental data.

Towards the declaration of the strait of Gibraltar as an environmental controlled area

The emissions from maritime transportation, both greenhouse gases and traditional pollutants, are harmful to the ecosystem and human health. The large quantities of these pollutants emitted by shipping in the Strait of Gibraltar could be reduced if the Strait was declared an Emission Control Area (ECA). Using the SENEM1 emissions model, this study aims to compare the current situation and a possible future situation as an ECA. Unlike other models, SENEM1 includes all the variables - both ship and external conditions - that influence the calculation of emissions. Comparing only the 2017 emissions from ships sailing in the Strait of Gibraltar with the designated ECA simulation, reductions of up to 75.8 % in NOx, 73.4 % in PM_2.5 and 94 % in SOx were collected. It would be a wakeup call for the International Maritime Organization (IMO) and the governments responsible to recommend that the Strait of Gibraltar be designated an ECA zone.

Changing trends in the air pollution-related disease burden from 1990 to 2019 and its predicted level in 25 years

In the twenty-first century, exposure to air pollution has become a threat to human health worldwide due to industrial development. Timely, comprehensive, and reliable assessment and prediction of disease burden can help mitigate the health hazards of air pollution. This study conducted a two-stage analysis. First, we reported the air pollution-related disease burden globally and for different subgroups like socio-demographic index (SDI), sex, and age. We analyzed the trend of the disease burden from 1990 to 2019. In addition, we explored whether and how some national indicators modified the disease burden. Second, we predicted the number and the age-standardized rates of death and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) attributable to air pollution from 2020 to 2044 by the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and exponential smoothing model. The age-period-cohort (APC) model in the maximum likelihood framework and the Bayesian APC model integrated nested Laplace approximations (INLAs) were further applied to perform sensitivity analysis. In 2019, air pollution accounted for 11.62% of death and 0.84% of DALY worldwide. The corresponding age-standardized rate was 85.62 (95% uncertainty interval (UI): 75.71, 96.07) and 2791.08 (95% UI: 2468.81, 3141.39) per 100,000 population. From 1990 to 2019, the number of death attributable to air pollution remained stable, and the number of DALY exhibited a downward trend. The corresponding age-standardized rates both declined. In some countries with larger population densities, higher proportions of elders, and lower proportions of females, the disease burden attributable to air pollution was lower. The predicted results showed that the number of air pollution-related death and DALY would increase. This study comprehensively assessed and predicted the air pollution-related disease burden worldwide. The results indicated that the disease burden would remain very serious in the future. Hence, some relevant policies should be developed to prevent and manage air pollution.

Health impact assessments of shipping and port-sourced air pollution on a global scale: A scoping literature review

BACKGROUND

Globalisation has led to international trade expand rapidly. Seaborne transport moves 80% of traded goods across the globe, producing around 3% of greenhouse gases and other hazardous pollutants, such as PM, NOx and SOx, known to be harmful to health.

METHODS

A scoping literature review was conducted reviewing peer-reviewed studies on health impact assessments (HIA) of global shipping and port-sourced air pollution. For review inclusion, studies had to (1) use a HIA methodology; (2) quantify the air pollution concentration attributable to at least one shipping or port activity scenario; (3) assess at least one health outcome (i.e. epidemiological measure or monetization); (4) quantify the attributable health burden of the respective scenario.

RESULTS

Thirty-two studies were included, studying predominantly European Sea shipping/ port-sourced emissions with health impacts for global or respective European populations. Also, Global, Asian, North American and Australian Sea shipping/ port-sourced emissions were studied, with attributable health impacts for global or respective populations. The health outcome predominantly studied was mortality (all-cause, cause-specific, loss in life expectancy, years of life lost (YLLs)), but also morbidity (disease cases, hospital admissions, years lived with disability (YLDs)), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), restricted activity days and work loss days. The highest air pollution concentrations were identified along major shipping routes and ports, and the strongest health impacts occurred among respective riparian populations. Globally, ∼265,000 premature deaths were projected for 2020 (∼0.5% of global mortality) attributable to global shipping-sourced emissions. Emission control scenarios studied were predominantly sulphur fuel content caps and NOx emission reduction scenarios, consisting of technological interventions, cleaner fuels or fuel switches, and were assessed as effective in reducing shipping-sourced emissions, and hence, health burdens.

CONCLUSIONS

Our review positions maritime transport an important source of air pollution and health risk factor, which needs more research and policy attention and rigorous emission control efforts, as shipping-sourced emissions are projected to increase with increases in global trade and shipping volumes.

Lowering mortality risks in urban areas by containing atmospheric pollution

OBJECTIVES

Although studies collectively examining the traffic and residential heat pollutant emissions are abundant, research investigations dedicated to Cyprus are scarce. This investigation has simulated the levels of air pollutants, namely, CO, NO_x, PM_2.5, and PM₁₀ and reconciled them with actual air quality measurements in Nicosia, Cyprus, during a 9-month period at an hourly resolution. To this end, several scenarios and cases were formulated to tackle emissions and minimise human mortality risks in the city.

METHODS

The GRAL dispersion model was used to project pollution levels. Nine different traffic scenarios were devised to estimate variations in concentration of PM_2.5 and NO_x under various policies, such as banning diesel passenger vehicles (PV), light duty vehicles (LDV), non-Euro 6 standards vehicles, stringent speed limits and a ubiquitous roll-out of electric passenger vehicles. Moreover, 4 distinct cases were analysed to year 2030 considering a fluctuation in traffic of ±20% whereas all vehicles conform to Euro 6 standards. Three additional policies examined the prohibition of diesel PV and LDV, 80% electric PV and outlawing fireplaces. Drawing on the findings of these scenarios and cases, the total cardiovascular and respiratory mortality rates at the capital of Cyprus, Nicosia, were deduced.

RESULTS

The most promising scenario in terms of curbing emissions was to ban non-Euro 6 vehicles and diesel PV and LDV which could contain average NO_x concentration, in Nicosia, from 52.9 μg/m³ to 15.0 μg/m³. If this policy were to be implemented, it could have saved 70% of the premature deaths tied to NO_x emissions. For particulate matter, banning fireplaces and abandoning non-Euro 6 vehicles could lower average concentrations from 18.3 μg/m³ to 13.1 μg/m³, saving at least 30% of the people poised to lose their lives from particulate matter risks.

CONCLUSION

Traffic and residential heat policies are not easy to implement. However, our study has demonstrated that the most effective policies for curbing NO_x emissions would be to ensure that all vehicles abide with the Euro 6 standards and, concurrently, ban diesel passenger and light duty vehicles. Lastly, phasing out domestic fireplaces appears to be the most promising solution for containing particulate matter, in 2030.

Health and Economic Burden of the 2017 Portuguese Extreme Wildland Fires on Children

Wildland fires release substantial amounts of hazardous contaminants, contributing to a decline in air quality and leading to serious health risks. Thus, this study aimed to understand the contributions of the 2017 extreme wildland fires in Portugal on children health, compared to 2016 (with burned area, in accordance with the average of the previous 15 years). The impact of long-term exposure to PM₁₀ and NO₂ concentrations, associated with wildland fires, on postneonatal mortality, bronchitis prevalence, and bronchitis symptoms in asthmatic children was estimated, as well as the associated costs. The excess health burden in children attributable to exposure to PM₁₀ and NO₂, was calculated based on WHO HRAPIE relative risks. Fire emissions were obtained from the Fire INventory from NCAR (FINN). The results obtained indicate that the smoke from wildfires negatively impacts children’s lung function (PM₁₀ exposure: increase of 320 and 648 cases of bronchitis in 2016 and 2017; NO₂ exposure: 24 and 40 cases of bronchitis symptoms in asthmatic children in 2016 and 2017) and postneonatal mortality (PM₁₀ exposure: 0.2 and 0.4 deaths in 2016 and 2017). Associated costs were increased in 2017 by around 1 million € for all the evaluated health endpoints, compared to 2016.