Prediction of plant species occurrence as affected by nitrogen deposition and climate change on a European scale

A novel method to estimate the response of habitat types to nitrogen deposition

Increasing nitrogen depositions adversely affect European landscapes, including habitats within the Natura2000 network. Critical loads for nitrogen deposition have been established to quantify the loss of habitat quality. When the nitrogen deposition rises above a habitat-specific critical load, the quality of the focal habitat is expected to be negatively influenced. Here, we investigate how the quality of habitat types is affected beyond the critical load. We calculated response curves for 60 terrestrial habitat types in the Netherlands to the estimated nitrogen deposition (EMEP-data). The curves for habitat types are based on the occurrence of their characteristic plant species in North-Western Europe (plot data from the European Vegetation Archive). The estimated response curves were corrected for soil type, mean annual temperature and annual precipitation. Evaluation was carried out by expert judgement, and by comparison with gradient deposition field studies. For 39 habitats the response to nitrogen deposition was judged to be reliable by five experts, while out of the 41 habitat types for which field studies were available, 25 showed a good agreement. Some of the curves showed a steep decline in quality and some a more gradual decline with increasing nitrogen deposition. We compared the response curves with both the empirical and modelled critical loads. For 41 curves, we found a decline already starting below the critical load.

Characteristics and drivers of vegetation productivity sensitivity to increasing CO2 at Northern Middle and High Latitudes

Understanding and accurately predicting how the sensitivity of terrestrial vegetation productivity to rising atmospheric CO2 concentration (β) is crucial for assessing carbon sink dynamics. However, the temporal characteristics and driving mechanisms of β remain uncertain. Here, observational and CMIP6 modeling evidence suggest a decreasing trend in β at the Northern Middle and High Latitudes during the historical period of 1982-2015 (-0.082 ± 0.005% 100 ppm-1 year-1). This decreasing trend is projected to persist until the end of the 21st century (-0.082 ± 0.005% 100 ppm-1 year-1 under SSP370 and -0.166 ± 0.006% 100 ppm-1 year-1 under SSP585). The declining β indicates a weakening capacity of vegetation to mitigate warming climates, posing challenges for achieving the temperature goals of the Paris Agreement. The rise in vapor pressure deficit (VPD), that triggers stomata closure and weakens photosynthesis, is considered as the dominated factor contributing to the historical and future decline in β, accounting for 62.3%-75.2% of the effect. Nutrient availability and water availability contribute 15.7%-21.4% and 8.5%-16.3%, respectively. These findings underscore the significant role of VPD in shaping terrestrial carbon sink dynamics, an aspect that is currently insufficiently considered in many climate and ecological models.

Assembly of typical steppe community and functional groups along the precipitation gradient from 1985 to 2022

Long-term observations have shown that structure and function of grasslands have changed due to climate change over the past decades. However, little is known about how grasslands respond to climate change along the precipitation gradient, and potential mechanisms remain elusive. Here, we utilize a long-term experiment in typical steppe to explore universal and differential mechanisms of community and functional groups assembly along the precipitation gradient. Our results indicated that the sensitivity of community and functional groups assembly to climate change was related to local precipitation. The strength of the positive effects of climate change on aboveground biomass, species richness, and their relationship of community decreased modestly with local precipitation. The mechanism behind this was the change in plant community composition of the precipitation-induced, annuals that was more responsive to climate change decreased as increased local precipitation. Furthermore, current and past climate both drove community and functional group assembly, and the role of past climate diminished with increasing local precipitation. Among them, climate fluctuation, average climate and current climate were the most critical climate indicators affecting community and functional groups assembly in low, medium and high precipitation sites, respectively. In conclusion, climatic change do not always exert identical effects on grasslands along the precipitation gradient. This could be critical importance for improving our ability to predict future changes in grassland ecosystems.

Strategic roadmap to assess forest vulnerability under air pollution and climate change

Although it is an integral part of global change, most of the research addressing the effects of climate change on forests have overlooked the role of environmental pollution. Similarly, most studies investigating the effects of air pollutants on forests have generally neglected the impacts of climate change. We review the current knowledge on combined air pollution and climate change effects on global forest ecosystems and identify several key research priorities as a roadmap for the future. Specifically, we recommend (1) the establishment of much denser array of monitoring sites, particularly in the South Hemisphere; (2) further integration of ground and satellite monitoring; (3) generation of flux-based standards and critical levels taking into account the sensitivity of dominant forest tree species; (4) long-term monitoring of N, S, P cycles and base cations deposition together at global scale; (5) intensification of experimental studies, addressing the combined effects of different abiotic factors on forests by assuring a better representation of taxonomic and functional diversity across the ~73,000 tree species on Earth; (6) more experimental focus on phenomics and genomics; (7) improved knowledge on key processes regulating the dynamics of radionuclides in forest systems; and (8) development of models integrating air pollution and climate change data from long-term monitoring programs.

Modeled Vegetation Community Trajectories: Effects from Climate Change, Atmospheric Nitrogen Deposition, and Soil Acidification Recovery

Forest understory plant communities in the United States harbor most of the vegetation diversity of forests and are often sensitive to changes in climate and atmospheric deposition of nitrogen (N). As temperature increases from human-caused climate change and soils recover from long term atmospheric deposition of N and sulfur (S), it is unclear how these important ecosystem components will respond. We used the newly developed US-PROPS model - based on species response functions for over 1,500 species - to evaluate the potential impacts of atmospheric N deposition and climate change on species occurrence probability for a case study in the forested ecosystems of the Great Smoky Mountains National Park (GRSM), an iconic park in the southeastern United States. We evaluated six future scenarios from various combinations of two potential recoveries of soil pH (no change, +0.5 pH units) and three climate futures (no change, +1.5, +3.0 deg C). Species critical loads (CLs) of N deposition and projected responses for each scenario were determined. Critical loads were estimated to be low (< 2 kg N/ha/yr) to protect all species under current and expected future conditions across broad regions of GRSM and these CLs were exceeded at large spatial extents among scenarios. Northern hardwood, yellow pine, and chestnut oak forests were among the most N-sensitive vegetation map classes found within GRSM. Potential future air temperature conditions generally led to decreases in the maximum occurrence probability for species. Therefore, CLs were considered "unattainable" in these situations because the specified level of protection used for CL determination (i.e., maximum occurrence probability under ambient conditions) was not attainable. Although some species showed decreases in maximum occurrence probability with simulated increases in soil pH, most species were favored by increased pH. The importance of our study is rooted in the methodology described here for establishing regional CLs and for evaluating future conditions, which is transferable to other national parks in the U.S. and in Europe where the original PROPS model was developed.

Assessing critical load exceedances and ecosystem impacts of anthropogenic nitrogen and sulphur deposition at unmanaged forested catchments in Europe

Anthropogenic emissions of nitrogen (N) and sulphur (S) compounds and their long-range transport have caused widespread negative impacts on different ecosystems. Critical loads (CLs) are deposition thresholds used to describe the sensitivity of ecosystems to atmospheric deposition. The CL methodology has been a key science-based tool for assessing the environmental consequences of air pollution. We computed CLs for eutrophication and acidification using a European long-term dataset of intensively studied forested ecosystem sites (n = 17) in northern and central Europe. The sites belong to the ICP IM and eLTER networks. The link between the site-specific calculations and time-series of CL exceedances and measured site data was evaluated using long-term measurements (1990-2017) for bulk deposition, throughfall and runoff water chemistry. Novel techniques for presenting exceedances of CLs and their temporal development were also developed. Concentrations and fluxes of sulphate, total inorganic nitrogen (TIN) and acidity in deposition substantially decreased at the sites. Decreases in S deposition resulted in statistically significant decreased concentrations and fluxes of sulphate in runoff and decreasing trends of TIN in runoff were more common than increasing trends. The temporal developments of the exceedance of the CLs indicated the more effective reductions of S deposition compared to N at the sites. There was a relation between calculated exceedance of the CLs and measured runoff water concentrations and fluxes, and most sites with higher CL exceedances showed larger decreases in both TIN and H⁺ concentrations and fluxes. Sites with higher cumulative exceedance of eutrophication CLs (averaged over 3 and 30 years) generally showed higher TIN concentrations in runoff. The results provided evidence on the link between CL exceedances and empirical impacts, increasing confidence in the methodology used for the European-scale CL calculations. The results also confirm that emission abatement actions are having their intended effects on CL exceedances and ecosystem impacts.