Meta-analysis to explain unknown causes of the origins of SARS-COV-2

Oscillating spatiotemporal patterns of COVID-19 in the United States

COVID-19 case rates in the US wax and wane in wave-like patterns over time, but the spatial patterns of these temporal epidemic waves have not been well characterized. By analyzing state- and county-level COVID-19 case rate data for spatiotemporal decomposition modes and oscillatory patterns, we demonstrate that the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 feature recurrent spatiotemporal patterns. In addition to the well-recognized national-level annual mid-winter surges, we demonstrate a prominent but previously unrecognized six-month north-south oscillation in the eastern US (Eastern US COVID-19 Oscillator-EUCO) that gives rise to regional sub-epidemics and travelling epidemic waves. We also demonstrate a second less prominent pattern that oscillates east-west in the northern US (Northern US COVID-19 Oscillator-NUCO). The drivers of these newly recognized oscillatory epidemic patterns remain to be elucidated.

Negative effects of high public debt on health systems facing pandemic crisis: Lessons from COVID-19 in Europe to prepare for future emergencies

The investigation goal here was to analyze how the level of public debt affects preparedness of health systems to face emergencies. In particular, this study examined the negative effects of high public debt on health systems of European countries in the presence of the COVID-19 pandemic crisis. Empirical evidence revealed that European countries with a lower level of government debt as a percentage of GDP both in 2009 and 2019 (the period before the arrival of the pandemic) had lower COVID-19 fatality rates compared to countries with higher levels of public debt. The explanation is that high levels of public debt in countries trigger budget constraints that limit their ability to allocate resources to healthcare systems (e.g., health expenditures and investments), weakening health system performance and causing systemic vulnerability and lower preparedness during emergencies, such as with the COVID-19 pandemic. Implications of health policies are suggested to improve strategies of crisis management.

Interaction of SARS-CoV-2 with host cells and antibodies: experiment and simulation

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is the causative agent of the devastating global COVID-19 pandemic announced by WHO in March 2020. Through unprecedented scientific effort, several vaccines, drugs and antibodies have been developed, saving millions of lives, but the fight against COVID-19 continues as immune escape variants of concern such as Delta and Omicron emerge. To develop more effective treatments and to elucidate the side effects caused by vaccines and therapeutic agents, a deeper understanding of the molecular interactions of SARS-CoV-2 with them and human cells is required. With special interest in computational approaches, we will focus on the structure of SARS-CoV-2 and the interaction of its spike protein with human angiotensin-converting enzyme-2 (ACE2) as a prime entry point of the virus into host cells. In addition, other possible viral receptors will be considered. The fusion of viral and human membranes and the interaction of the spike protein with antibodies and nanobodies will be discussed, as well as the effect of SARS-CoV-2 on protein synthesis in host cells.

Sources, diffusion and prediction in COVID-19 pandemic: lessons learned to face next health emergency

Scholars and experts argue that future pandemics and/or epidemics are inevitable events, and the problem is not whether they will occur, but when a new health emergency will emerge. In this uncertain scenario, one of the most important questions is an accurate prevention, preparedness and prediction for the next pandemic. The main goal of this study is twofold: first, the clarification of sources and factors that may trigger pandemic threats; second, the examination of prediction models of on-going pandemics, showing pros and cons. Results, based on in-depth systematic review, show the vital role of environmental factors in the spread of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19), and many limitations of the epidemiologic models of prediction because of the complex interactions between the new viral agent SARS-CoV-2, environment and society that have generated variants and sub-variants with rapid transmission. The insights here are, whenever possible, to clarify these aspects associated with public health in order to provide lessons learned of health policy that may reduce risks of emergence and diffusion of new pandemics having negative societal impact.

COVID-19 face masks attracted Cellulomonas and Acinetobacter bacteria and provided breeding haven for red cotton bug (Dysdercus suturellus) and house cricket (Acheta domesticus)

This study investigated the possibility of COVID-19 medical face masks to affect bacterial and macrofaunal communities in open soil environment. An estimated 1.24 trillion of face masks have been used and discarded as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, with a significant part of this ending up in the soil environment, where they degrade gradually over time. Because bacteria and macrofauna are sensitive indicators of changes in soil ecosystem, we investigated possible impacts of face masks on population, distribution, and diversity of these soil species. Effect on soil bacterial community was studied by both culture-based and advanced molecular (metagenomics) approach, while impact on macrofauna was investigated by examining monoliths around heap of masks for soil insects. In both cases, control soil experiments without face masks were also set up and monitored over a period of 48 weeks. The study found that the presence of face masks led to a more diverse bacterial community, although no influence on overall bacterial population was evidenced. More importantly, bacteria belonging to the genera Cellulomonas and Acinetobacter were found prominently around face masks and are believed to be involved in biodegradation of the masks. The bacterial community around the masks was dominated by Proteobacteria (29.7-38.7%), but the diversity of species increased gradually with time. Tiny black ants (Monomorium invidium) were attracted to the face masks to take advantage of water retained by the masks during the period of little rainfall. The heaps of face masks also provided shelter and breeding "haven" for soil insects, notably the red cotton bug (Dysdercus suturellus) and house cricket (Acheta domesticus), thereby impacting positively on the population of insect species in the environment. This study provides insights into the actual impacts of face masks on soil organisms under normal outdoor environmental conditions.

Scientific evidence on the origin of SARS-CoV-2

Even reaching the end of the year 2022, there is still a controversy on the origin of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. This Virtual Special Issue (VSI), focused on the "Scientific evidence on the origin of SARS-CoV-2", was launched some months ago with the aim of stimulating the submission of new high quality scientific research papers on the matter, to shed light on it. As indicated in the call for papers, the Editors involved in the VSI were aware of the difficulties of presenting concluding facts on that issue, however, bearing in mind that some teams of researchers had started investigations regarding this subject, a VSI like this (searching for stimulating the scientific controversy while requiring scientific evidence), could help to elucidate complicated aspects, going a step ahead in this way. The Editors made a call encouraging interested teams of researchers having solid results to submit high quality manuscripts dealing with this crucial theme. We thought -and we still think-that it is of maximum interest for the scientific community, as well as for the whole society, now and probably for the future. The VSI have received 50 submissions, which could be considered a limited number highlighting the difficulties of elaborating new high-quality manuscripts providing solid evidence on the matter. After a careful peer-review, those manuscripts considered to reach the highest scientific value were accepted for publication. The Editors think that the set of papers included in this VSI constitute interesting and high-quality contributions, providing further scientific knowledge on this issue. In this editorial piece, the Editors make some comments on the papers published, including some additional reflections.

Are mega-events super spreaders of infectious diseases similar to COVID-19? A look into Tokyo 2020 Olympics and Paralympics to improve preparedness of next international events

Tokyo Summer Olympics and Paralympics have raised social issues regarding the potential rise in COVID-19 cases in Japan and risks associated with the safe organization of mega sporting events during the pandemic, such as the FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022. This study investigates the Tokyo Summer Olympics as a unique case study to clarify the drivers of infectivity and provide guidelines to host countries for the safe organization of subsequent international sporting events. The result here reveals that Tokyo and Japan did not experience a rise in confirmed cases of COVID-19 due to the hosting of the Summer Olympics. Still, transmission dynamics seems to be mainly driven by the high density of population (about 1.2%, p-value <0.001) like other larger cities in Japan (result confirmed with Mann-Whitney U test, significance at 0.05). Our study provided evidence that hosting mega sporting events during this COVID-19 pandemic is safe if strictly maintained the precautions with non-pharmaceutical (and pharmaceutical) measures of control of infections. The Tokyo Summer Olympics hosting will be exemplary for next international events due to the successful implementation of preventive measures during COVID-19 pandemic crisis.

Effects of strict containment policies on COVID-19 pandemic crisis: lessons to cope with next pandemic impacts

The goal of the study here is to analyze and assess whether strict containment policies to cope with Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic crisis are effective interventions to reduce high numbers of infections and deaths. A homogenous sample of 31 countries is categorized in two sets: countries with high or low strictness of public policy to cope with COVID-19 pandemic crisis. The findings here suggest that countries with a low intensity of strictness have average confirmed cases and fatality rates related to COVID-19 lower than countries with high strictness in containment policies (confirmed cases are 24.69% vs. 26.06% and fatality rates are 74.33% vs. 76.38%, respectively, in countries with low and high strictness of COVID-19 public policies of containment). What this study adds is that high levels of strict restriction policies may not be useful measures of control in containing the spread and negative impact of pandemics similar to COVID-19 and additionally a high strictness in containment policies generates substantial social and economic costs. These findings can be explained with manifold socioeconomic and environmental factors that support transmission dynamics and circulation of COVID-19 pandemic. Hence, high levels of strictness in public policy (and also a high share of administering new vaccines) seem to have low effectiveness to stop pandemics similar to COVID-19 driven by mutant viral agents. These results here suggest that the design of effective health policies for prevention and preparedness of future pandemics should be underpinned in a good governance of countries and adoption of new technology, rather than strict and generalized health polices having ambiguous effects of containment in society.

Understanding risk factors of a new variant outburst through global analysis of Omicron transmissibility

The emergence of a new virus variant is generally recognized by its usually sudden and rapid spread (outburst) in a certain world region. Due to the near-exponential rate of initial expansion, the new strain may not be detected at its true geographical origin but in the area with the most favorable conditions leading to the fastest exponential growth. Therefore, it is crucial to understand better the factors that promote such outbursts, which we address in the example of analyzing global Omicron transmissibility during its global emergence/outburst in November 2021-February 2022. As predictors, we assemble a number of potentially relevant factors: vaccinations (both full and boosters), different measures of population mobility (provided by Google), estimated stringency of measures, the prevalence of chronic diseases, population age, the timing of the outburst, and several other socio-demographic variables. As a proxy for natural immunity (prevalence of prior infections in population), we use cumulative numbers of COVID-19 deaths. As a response variable (transmissibility measure), we use the estimated effective reproduction number (R_e) averaged in the vicinity of the outburst maxima. To select significant predictors of R_e, we use machine learning regressions that employ feature selection, including methods based on ensembles of decision trees (Random Forest and Gradient Boosting). We identify the young population, earlier infection onset, higher mobility, low natural immunity, and low booster prevalence as likely direct risk factors. Interestingly, we find that all these risk factors were significantly higher for Africa, though curiously somewhat lower in Southern African countries (where the outburst emerged) compared to other African countries. Therefore, while the risk factors related to the virus transmissibility clearly promote the outburst of a new virus variant, specific regions/countries where the outburst actually happens may be related to less evident factors, possibly random in nature.

An updated review of the scientific literature on the origin of SARS-CoV-2

More than two and a half years have already passed since the first case of COVID-19 was officially reported (December 2019), as well as more than two years since the WHO declared the current pandemic (March 2020). During these months, the advances on the knowledge of the COVID-19 and SARS-CoV-2, the coronavirus responsible of the infection, have been very significant. However, there are still some weak points on that knowledge, being the origin of SARS-CoV-2 one of the most notorious. One year ago, I published a review focused on what we knew and what we need to know about the origin of that coronavirus, a key point for the prevention of potential future pandemics of a similar nature. The analysis of the available publications until July 2021 did not allow drawing definitive conclusions on the origin of SARS-CoV-2. Given the great importance of that issue, the present review was aimed at updating the scientific information on that origin. Unfortunately, there have not been significant advances on that topic, remaining basically the same two hypotheses on it. One of them is the zoonotic origin of SARS-CoV-2, while the second one is the possible leak of this coronavirus from a laboratory. Most recent papers do not include observational or experimental studies, being discussions and positions on these two main hypotheses. Based on the information here reviewed, there is not yet a definitive and well demonstrated conclusion on the origin of SARS-CoV-2.

Tracing the origin of Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2): A systematic review and narrative synthesis

The aim of the study was to trace and understand the origin of Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) through various available literatures and accessible databases. Although the world enters the third year of the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic, health and socioeconomic impacts continue to mount, the origin and mechanisms of spill-over of the SARS-CoV-2 into humans remain elusive. Therefore, a systematic review of the literature was performed that showcased the integrated information obtained through manual searches, digital databases (PubMed, CINAHL, and MEDLINE) searches, and searches from legitimate publications (1966-2022), followed by meta-analysis. Our systematic analysis data proposed three postulated hypotheses concerning the origin of the SARS-CoV-2, which include zoonotic origin (Z), laboratory origin (L), and obscure origin (O). Despite the fact that the zoonotic origin for SARS-CoV-2 has not been conclusively identified to date, our data suggest a zoonotic origin, in contrast to some alternative concepts, including the probability of a laboratory incident or leak. Our data exhibit that zoonotic origin (Z) has higher evidence-based support as compared to laboratory origin (L). Importantly, based on all the studies included, we generated the forest plot with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of the risk ratio estimates. Our meta-analysis further supports the zoonotic origin of SARS/SARS-CoV-2 in the included studies.

The effect of selective serotonin and norepinephrine reuptake inhibitors on clinical outcome of COVID-19 patients: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Background and Aim

Due to the high social and economic burden and also mortality and morbidity caused by coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in the past few years, researchers have aimed at finding solutions to suppressing the severity of infection. Recently, selective serotonin and serotonin-norepinephrine reuptake inhibitors (SSRI/SNRI) have been investigated as an adjuvant treatment for COVID-19. The aim of the current study was to investigate the impact of SSRI/SNRIs on outcomes of COVID-19 patients.

Methods

In this systematic review and meta-analysis, a comprehensive search strategy consisting of relevant words was performed by two researchers in PubMed, Scopus and EMBASE libraries. Studies reporting the effect of SSRI and/or SNRI use in COVID-19 patients' outcome were included. Hospitalization, mortality, hospitalization event, and length of hospital stay were considered as main outcomes of this study. Analysis was carried out using Comprehensive Meta-Analysis (CMA-version 2) and final data were reported as odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (CI).

Results

Our search led to the final selection of 9 articles including 15,287 patients. The effect of fluvoxamine, fluoxetine, and the overall effect of SSRI/SNRI use on mortality of COVID-19 patients were investigated in 3, 2, and 7 articles, respectively. The results of our analyses showed that these medications could significantly decrease mortality of COVID-19 patients (OR and 95% [CI]: 0.595 [0.467-0.758], 0.620 [0.469-0.821], and 0.596 [0.437-0.813]). The effect of SSRI/SNRIs on hospitalization events of COVID-19 patients was not significant (OR: 0.240% and 95% CI: 0.041-1.4). Also, length of hospital stay was longer in patients who administrated SSRIs.

Conclusion

According to this study's results, SSRI/SNRIs may be effective in reducing mortality of COVID-19 patients, suggesting the superiority of fluvoxamine to fluoxetine. The safety profile and affordable cost of SSRI/SNRIs for a short-term use may be other reasons to propose them as beneficial medications in preventing mortality in COVID-19.

COVID-19 Vaccination is not a Sufficient Public Policy to face Crisis Management of next Pandemic Threats

This study reveals that a vast vaccination campaign is a necessary but not sufficient public policy to reduce the negative impact of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic crisis because manifold factors guide the spread of this new infectious disease and related mortality in society. Statistical evidence here, based on a worldwide sample of countries, shows a positive correlation between people fully vaccinated and COVID-19 mortality (r = + 0.65, p-value < 0.01). Multivariate regression, controlling income per capita, confirms this finding. Results suggest that the increasing share of people vaccinated against COVID-19 seems to be a necessary but not sufficient health policy to reduce mortality of COVID-19. The findings here can be explained with the role of Peltzman effect, new variants, environmental and socioeconomic factors that affect the diffusion and negative impact of COVID-19 pandemic in society. This study extends the knowledge in this research field to design effective public policies of crisis management for facing next pandemic threats.

Improving preparedness for next pandemics: Max level of COVID-19 vaccinations without social impositions to design effective health policy and avoid flawed democracies

In the presence of pandemic threats, such as Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) crisis, vaccination is one of the fundamental strategies to cope with negative effects of new viral agents in society. The rollout of vast vaccination campaigns also generates the main issue of hesitancy and resistance to vaccines in a share of people. Many studies have investigated how to reduce the social resistance to vaccinations, however the maximum level of vaccinable people against COVID-19 (and in general against pandemic diseases), without coercion in countries, is unknown. The goal of this study is to solve the problem here by developing an empirical analysis, based on global data, to estimate the max share of people vaccinable in relation to socioeconomic wellbeing of nations. Results, based on 150 countries, reveal that vaccinations increase with the income per capita, achieving the maximum share of about 70% of total population, without coercion. This information can provide new knowledge to establish the appropriate goal of vaccination campaigns and in general of health policies to cope with next pandemic impacts, without restrictions that create socioeconomic problems. Overall, then, nations have a natural level of max vaccinable people (70% of population), but strict policies and mandates to achieve 90% of vaccinated population can reduce the quality of democracy and generate socioeconomic issues higher than (pandemic) crisis.

The effects of COVID-19 transmission on environmental sustainability and human health: Paving the way to ensure its sustainable management

The transmission dynamics and health risks of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic are inextricably linked to ineract with environment, climate, air pollution, and meteorological conditions. The spread of COVID-19 infection can thus perturb the 'planetary health' and livelihood by exerting impacts on the temporal and spatial variabilities of environmental pollution. Prioritization of COVID-19 by the health-care sector has been posing a serious threat to economic progress while undermining the efforts to meet the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) for environmental sustainability. Here, we review the multifaceted effects of COVID-19 with respect to environmental quality, climatic variables, SDGs, energy resilience, and sustainability programs. It is well perceived that COVID-19 may have long-lasting and profound effects on socio-economic systems, food security, livelihoods, and the 'nexus' indicators. To seek for the solution of these problems, consensus can be drawn to establish and ensure a sound health-care system, a sustainable environment, and a circular bioeconomy. A holistic analysis of COVID-19's effects on multiple sectors should help develop nature-based solutions, cleaner technologies, and green economic recovery plans to help maintain environmental sustainability, ecosystem resilience, and planetary health.

Global analysis of timely COVID-19 vaccinations: improving governance to reinforce response policies for pandemic crises

Purpose

The goal of this study is to analyze the relationship between public governance and COVID-19 vaccinations during early 2021 to assess the preparedness of countries to timely policy responses to cope with pandemic crises.

Design/methodology/approach

This global study elaborates descriptive statistics, correlations, regression analyses and Independent Samples T-Test on 112 countries, comparing those with high/low level of governance, to determine whether statistical evidence supports the hypothesis that good governance can improve the timely administration of vaccines.

Findings

Bivariate correlation reveals that doses of vaccines administered × 100 inhabitants have a high positive association with the General Index of Governance (r = 0.58, p-value <0.01). The result is confirmed by partial correlation (controlling density of population per km2): r = 0.584, p-value <0.001. The coefficient of regression in the models also indicates that an increase in the General Index of Governance improves the expected administration of doses of COVID-19 vaccines (p-value <0.001).

Research limitations/implications

Although this study has provided interesting results that are, of course, tentative, it has several limitations. First, a limitation is the lack of data in several countries. Second, not all the possible confounding factors that affect the vaccination against COVID-19 are investigated, such as country-specific health investments and expenditures, and these aspects should be examined in the future development of this research. A third limit is related to the measurement of governance through the World Governance Indicators, which are based only on perceptions and can be biased by different socio-economic factors.

Practical implications

The identification of factors determining the timely vaccinations may help to design best practices of health policy for improving the resilience of countries to face pandemic crises.

Social implications

The improvement of preparedness of countries through good governance can foster a rapid rollout of vaccinations to cope with pandemic threats and the negative effects of their socio-economic impact.

Originality/value

This study presents a global analysis of the role of public governance for timely vaccinations to face pandemic crises in society.