Short-term functional outcome and premorbid adjustment in clinical high-risk patients. Results of the EPOS project

GDNF and miRNA-29a as biomarkers in the first episode of psychosis: uncovering associations with psychosocial factors

Aim

Schizophrenia involves complex interactions between biological and environmental factors, including childhood trauma, cognitive impairments, and premorbid adjustment. Predicting its severity and progression remains challenging. Biomarkers like glial cell line-derived neurotrophic factor (GDNF) and miRNA-29a may bridge biological and environmental aspects. The goal was to explore the connections between miRNAs and neural proteins and cognitive functioning, childhood trauma, and premorbid adjustment in the first episode of psychosis (FEP).

Method

This study included 19 FEP patients who underwent clinical evaluation with: the Childhood Trauma Questionnaire (CTQ), the Premorbid Adjustment Scale (PAS), the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale (PANSS), and the Montreal Cognitive Assessment Scale (MoCA). Multiplex assays for plasma proteins were conducted with Luminex xMAP technology. Additionally, miRNA levels were quantitatively determined through RNA extraction, cDNA synthesis, and RT-qPCR on a 7500 Fast Real-Time PCR System.

Results

Among miRNAs, only miR-29a-3p exhibited a significant correlation with PAS-C scores (r = -0.513, p = 0.025) and cognitive improvement (r = -0.505, p = 0.033). Among the analyzed proteins, only GDNF showed correlations with MoCA scores at the baseline and after 3 months (r = 0.533, p = 0.0189 and r = 0.598, p = 0.007), cognitive improvement (r = 0.511, p = 0.025), and CTQ subtests. MIF concentrations correlated with the PAS-C subscale (r = -0.5670, p = 0.011).

Conclusion

GDNF and miR-29a-3p are promising as biomarkers for understanding and addressing cognitive deficits in psychosis. This study links miRNA and MIF to premorbid adjustment and reveals GDNF's unique role in connection with childhood trauma.

N400 event-related brain potential index of semantic processing and two-year clinical outcomes in persons at high risk for psychosis: A longitudinal study

The N400 event-related brain potential (ERP) semantic priming effect reflects greater activation of contextually related versus unrelated concepts in long-term semantic memory. Deficits in this measure have been found in persons with schizophrenia and those at clinical high risk (CHR) for this disorder. In CHR patients, we previously found that these deficits predict poorer social functional outcomes after 1 year. In the present study, we tested whether these deficits predicted greater psychosis-spectrum symptom severity and functional impairment over 2 years. We measured N400 semantic priming effects at baseline in CHR patients (n = 47) who viewed prime words each followed by a related/unrelated target word at stimulus-onset asynchronies (SOAs) of 300 or 750 ms. We measured psychosis-spectrum symptoms using the Structured Interview for Prodromal Symptoms and role and social functioning with the Global Functioning: Role and Social scales, at baseline, 1 (n = 29) and 2 years (n = 25). There was a significant interaction between the N400 semantic priming effect at the 300-ms SOA and time on GF:Role scores, indicating that, contrary to expectations, smaller baseline N400 semantic priming effects were associated with more improvement in role functioning from baseline to Year 1, but baseline N400 priming effects did not predict role functioning at Year 2. N400 priming effects were not significantly associated with different trajectories in psychosis-spectrum symptoms or social functioning. Thus, CHR patients' N400 semantic priming effects did not predict clinical outcomes over 2 years, suggesting that this ERP measure may have greater value as a state or short-term prognostic neurophysiological biomarker.

Machine learning based prediction and the influence of complement - Coagulation pathway proteins on clinical outcome: Results from the NEURAPRO trial

BACKGROUND

Functional outcomes are important measures in the overall clinical course of psychosis and individuals at clinical high-risk (CHR), however, prediction of functional outcome remains difficult based on clinical information alone. In the first part of this study, we evaluated whether a combination of biological and clinical variables could predict future functional outcome in CHR individuals. The complement and coagulation pathways have previously been identified as being of relevance to the pathophysiology of psychosis and have been found to contribute to the prediction of clinical outcome in CHR participants. Hence, in the second part we extended the analysis to evaluate specifically the relationship of complement and coagulation proteins with psychotic symptoms and functional outcome in CHR.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We carried out plasma proteomics and measured plasma cytokine levels, and erythrocyte membrane fatty acid levels in a sub-sample (n = 158) from the NEURAPRO clinical trial at baseline and 6 months follow up. Functional outcome was measured using Social and Occupational Functional assessment Score (SOFAS) scale. Firstly, we used support vector machine learning techniques to develop predictive models for functional outcome at 12 months. Secondly, we developed linear regression models to understand the association between 6-month follow-up levels of complement and coagulation proteins with 6-month follow-up measures of positive symptoms summary (PSS) scores and functional outcome.

RESULTS AND CONCLUSION

A prediction model based on clinical and biological data including the plasma proteome, erythrocyte fatty acids and cytokines, poorly predicted functional outcome at 12 months follow-up in CHR participants. In linear regression models, four complement and coagulation proteins (coagulation protein X, Complement C1r subcomponent like protein, Complement C4A & Complement C5) indicated a significant association with functional outcome; and two proteins (coagulation factor IX and complement C5) positively associated with the PSS score. Our study does not provide support for the utility of cytokines, proteomic or fatty acid data for prediction of functional outcomes in individuals at high-risk for psychosis. However, the association of complement protein levels with clinical outcome suggests a role for the complement system and the activity of its related pathway in the functional impairment and positive symptom severity of CHR patients.

Evidence of discontinuity between psychosis-risk and non-clinical samples in the neuroanatomical correlates of social function

Objective

Social dysfunction is a major feature of clinical-high-risk states for psychosis (CHR-P). Prior research has identified a neuroanatomical pattern associated with impaired social function outcome in CHR-P. The aim of the current study was to test whether social dysfunction in CHR-P is neurobiologically distinct or in a continuum with the lower end of the normal distribution of individual differences in social functioning.

Methods

We used a machine learning classifier to test for the presence of a previously validated brain structural pattern associated with impaired social outcome in CHR-P (CHR-outcome-neurosignature) in the neuroimaging profiles of individuals from two non-clinical samples (total n = 1763) and examined its association with social function, psychopathology and cognition.

Results

Although the CHR-outcome-neurosignature could be detected in a subset of the non-clinical samples, it was not associated was adverse social outcomes or higher psychopathology levels. However, participants whose neuroanatomical profiles were highly aligned with the CHR-outcome-neurosignature manifested subtle disadvantage in fluid (P_FDR = 0.004) and crystallized intelligence (P_FDR = 0.01), cognitive flexibility (P_FDR = 0.02), inhibitory control (P_FDR = 0.01), working memory (P_FDR = 0.0005), and processing speed (P_FDR = 0.04).

Conclusions

We provide evidence of divergence in brain structural underpinnings of social dysfunction derived from a psychosis-risk enriched population when applied to non-clinical samples. This approach appears promising in identifying brain mechanisms bound to psychosis through comparisons of patient populations to non-clinical samples with the same neuroanatomical profiles.

N400 event-related brain potential and functional outcome in persons at clinical high risk for psychosis: A longitudinal study

BACKGROUND

The N400 event-related brain potential (ERP) semantic priming effect is thought to reflect activation by meaningful stimuli of related concepts in semantic memory and has been found to be deficient in schizophrenia. We tested the hypothesis that, among individuals at clinical high risk (CHR) for psychosis, N400 semantic priming deficits predict worse symptomatic and functional outcomes after one year.

METHODS

We measured N400 semantic priming at baseline in CHR patients (n = 47) and healthy control participants (n = 25) who viewed prime words each followed by a related or unrelated target word, at stimulus-onset asynchronies (SOAs) of 300 or 750 ms. We measured patients' psychosis-like symptoms with the Scale of Prodromal Symptoms (SOPS) Positive subscale, and academic/occupational and social functioning with the Global Functioning (GF):Role and Social scales, respectively, at baseline and one-year follow-up (n = 29).

RESULTS

CHR patients exhibited less N400 semantic priming than controls across SOAs; planned contrasts indicated this difference was significant at the 750-ms but not the 300-ms SOA. In patients, reduced N400 semantic priming at the 750-ms SOA was associated with lower GF:Social scores at follow-up, and greater GF:Social decrements from baseline to follow-up. Patients' N400 semantic priming was not associated with SOPS Positive or GF:Role scores at follow-up, or change in these from baseline to follow-up.

CONCLUSIONS

In CHR patients, reduced N400 semantic priming at baseline predicted worse social functioning after one year, and greater decline in social functioning over this period. Thus, the N400 may be a useful prognostic biomarker of real-world functional outcome in CHR patients.

Premorbid adjustment in childhood is associated with later emotion management in first-episode schizophrenia

Poor premorbid adjustment and social functioning deficits are recognized as cardinal features of schizophrenia. Whether premorbid maladjustment is associated with interpersonal functioning problems that manifest during the first episode of psychosis is less well-established. No previous work has investigated the relationship between premorbid adjustment and a key component of social cognition (emotion management) during the early phase of schizophrenia. A sample of 119 individuals (40 experiencing a first episode of schizophrenia, FE-SZ, 22 experiencing a first episode of another psychotic disorder, FE-OP, and 57 healthy controls, HC) participated in an assessment of premorbid adjustment and emotion management, measured using the Cannon-Spoor Premorbid Adjustment Scale (PAS) and the Mayer-Salovey-Caruso Emotional Intelligence Test (MSCEIT) Managing Emotions (ME) scale. The relationship between premorbid adjustment (from age 5 to onset of psychotic symptoms) and ME was examined, as well as the specific relationship between childhood premorbid adjustment (ages 5-11) and ME. Results indicated that both FE-SZ and FE-OP participants exhibited significantly worse premorbid adjustment (all p's < 0.01) across development and lower ME scores when compared to HC participants. Among FE-SZ participants only, premorbid maladjustment in childhood was correlated with deficits in emotion management. This study is the first to suggest that poor premorbid social and academic functioning in childhood is related to later deficits in emotion management in those experiencing a first episode of schizophrenia. These results point to a possible relationship between early developmental deficits in premorbid social and school functioning and social cognitive deficits during the early (first episode) phase of schizophrenia.

Short-term functional outcome in psychotic patients: results of the Turku early psychosis study (TEPS)

BACKGROUND

Functional recovery of patients with clinical and subclinical psychosis is associated with clinical, neuropsychological and developmental factors. Less is known about how these factors predict functional outcomes in the same models. We investigated functional outcomes and their predictors in patients with first-episode psychosis (FEP) or a confirmed or nonconfirmed clinical high risk of psychosis (CHR-P vs. CHR-N).

METHODS

Altogether, 130 patients with FEP, 60 patients with CHR-P and 47 patients with CHR-N were recruited and extensively examined at baseline (T0) and 9 (T1) and 18 (T2) months later. Global Assessment of Functioning (GAF) at T0, T1 and T2 and psychotic, depression, and anxiety symptoms at T1 and T2 were assessed. Functional outcomes were predicted using multivariate repeated ANOVA.

RESULTS

During follow-up, the GAF score improved significantly in patients with FEP and CHR-P but not in patients with CHR-N. A single marital status, low basic education level, poor work situation, disorganization symptoms, perceptual deficits, and poor premorbid adjustment in patients with FEP, disorganization symptoms and poor premorbid adjustment in patients with CHR-P, and a low basic education level, poor work situation and general symptoms in patients with CHR-N predicted poor functional outcomes. Psychotic symptoms at T1 in patients with FEP and psychotic and depression symptoms at T1 and anxiety symptoms at T2 in patients with CHR-P were associated with poor functioning.

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with FEP and CHR-P, poor premorbid adjustment and disorganization symptomatology are common predictors of the functional outcome, while a low education level and poor work situation predict worse functional outcomes in patients with FEP and CHR-N. Interventions aimed at improving the ability to work and study are most important in improving the functioning of patients with clinical or subclinical psychosis.

Decreased Gamma Auditory Steady-State Response Is Associated With Impaired Real-World Functioning in Unmedicated Patients at Clinical High Risk for Psychosis

AIM

Deficits in synchronous, gamma-frequency neural oscillations may contribute to schizophrenia patients' real-world functional impairment and can be measured electroencephalographically using the auditory steady-state response (ASSR). Gamma ASSR deficits have been reported in schizophrenia patients and individuals at clinical high risk (CHR) for developing psychosis. We hypothesized that, in CHR patients, gamma ASSR would correlate with real-world functioning, consistent with a role for gamma synchrony deficits in functional impairment.

METHODS

A total of 35 CHR patients rated on Global Functioning: Social and Role scales had EEG recorded while listening to 1-ms, 93-dB clicks presented at 40 Hz in 500-ms trains, in response to which 40-Hz evoked power and intertrial phase-locking factor (PLF) were measured.

RESULTS

In CHR patients, lower 40-Hz PLF correlated with lower social functioning.

CONCLUSIONS

Gamma synchrony deficits may be a biomarker of real-world impairment at early stages of the schizophrenia disease trajectory.

Basic symptoms and gray matter volumes of patients at clinical high risk for psychosis

BACKGROUND

Clinical high-risk (CHR) for psychosis is indicated by ultra-high risk (UHR) and basic symptom (BS) criteria; however, conversion rates are highest when both UHR and BS criteria are fulfilled (UHR&BS). While BSs are considered the most immediate expression of neurobiological aberrations underlying the development of psychosis, research on neurobiological correlates of BS is scarce.

METHODS

We investigated gray matter volumes (GMV) of 20 regions of interest (ROI) previously associated with UHR criteria in 90 patients from the Bern early detection service: clinical controls (CC), first-episode psychosis (FEP), UHR, BS and UHR&BS. We expected lowest GMV in FEP and UHR&BS, and highest volume in CC with UHR and BS in-between.

RESULTS

Significantly, lower GMV was detected in FEP and UHR&BS patients relative to CC with no other significant between-group differences. When ROIs were analyzed separately, seven showed a significant group effect (FDR corrected), with five (inferior parietal, medial orbitofrontal, lateral occipital, middle temporal, precuneus) showing significantly lower GM volume in the FEP and/or UHR&BS groups than in the CC group (Bonferroni corrected). In the CHR group, only COGDIS scores correlated negatively with cortical volumes.

CONCLUSIONS

This is the first study to demonstrate that patients who fulfill both UHR and BS criteria - a population that has been associated with higher conversion rates - exhibit more severe GMV reductions relative to those who satisfy BS or UHR criteria alone. This result was mediated by the BS in the UHR&BS group, as only the severity of BS was linked to GMV reductions.

Premorbid functioning in schizophrenia spectrum disorders with comorbid substance use: A systematic review

Premorbid functioning has been related with several clinical features and prognosis of schizophrenia spectrum disorders. Comorbidity with substance use is highly prevalent and usually hinders clinical improvement in this kind of psychiatric disorders. This systematic review analyzes the differences in the premorbid functioning of subjects with a schizophrenia spectrum disorder with substance use (SSD+, dual psychosis) or without it (SSD-). A systematic review (PRISMA guidelines), including search in electronic databases (MEDLINE, Web of Science, and Cochrane Library), was performed. 118 published works were considered of which only 20 met our inclusion criteria. Although there is a great variability in methodologies, diagnoses included, and substances used, studies using the Premorbid Functioning Scale to assess the academic and/or social domains found that SSD+ subjects had a poorer academic but better social premorbid functioning than those with SSD-. Current evidence is not conclusive, so additional studies are required to integrate intervening factors in order to clarify the clinical implications of premorbid functioning to improve the course and therapeutic response of patients.

Relationship of negative symptom severity with cognitive symptoms and functioning in subjects at ultra-high risk for psychosis

AIM

Negative symptoms and cognition are related with functioning in schizophrenia. However, it is not clear whether they have a similar effect in individuals at ultra-high risk (UHR) for psychosis. In this study, we aimed to explore relationship of negative symptoms with cognition and functioning cross-sectionally in people with UHR for psychosis.

METHODS

In total, 107 people participated in this study. We assessed negative symptoms with Scale for Negative Symptoms (SANS). We applied a cognitive battery including seven tests. We evaluated functioning by using Global Assessment of Functioning Scale and work/study status as an indicator of role functioning.

RESULTS

SANS scores were correlated to global functioning cross-sectionally. SANS total score was correlated to cognitive test scores related to cognitive flexibility and attention. Only Trail Making Test B (TMT B) was negatively correlated to global functioning. SANS-affective blunting and SANS-avolition scores were independently related to global functioning. There was a significant indirect effect of the TMT B and composite attention scores on global functioning through negative symptoms indicating a complete mediation.

CONCLUSION

Our findings suggest that negative symptoms, particularly avolition have an impact on functioning and the association of cognition with functioning was mediated by negative symptoms in UHR.

Examining service-user perspectives for the development of a good outcome checklist for individuals at clinical high risk for psychosis

AIMS

Around 15% of patients at clinical high risk for psychosis (CHR-P) experience symptomatic remission and functional recovery at follow-up, yet the definition of a good outcome (GO) in this population requires further development. Outcomes are typically designed and rated by clinicians rather than patients, to measure adverse as opposed to GOs. Here we investigate how CHR-P subjects define a GO, with the aim of developing a checklist that could be used to measure GO in this clinical group.

METHODS

A set of GO-focused questions were designed in collaboration with a service-user. CHR-P patients (n = 48) were asked to rate the importance of items that could indicate short-term (1 year) and long-term (5 years) GO. These items were then ranked using the relative importance index (RII).

RESULTS

Patients rated improvement in subjective wellbeing (RII = 0.829) and non-specific presenting symptoms (RII = 0.817) amongst the factors most important for indicating GO in the short-term, and improved resilience (RII = 0.879) and negative symptoms (RII = 0.858) as key items for indicating long-term GO. Patients regarded building resilience (RII = 0.842) and having support from mental health services (RII = 0.833) as being protective for their mental health. These measures were included in a preliminary 12-item GO checklist (GO-12) for assessing GO in CHR-P subjects.

CONCLUSIONS

Patient-defined measures of GO included items that are not incorporated into conventional measures of outcomes in CHR-P subjects, such as subjective wellbeing and resilience. Integrating patient-defined metrics of GO may improve the assessment of outcomes in the CHR-P population.

The relationship between cognitive deficits and impaired short-term functional outcome in clinical high-risk for psychosis participants: A machine learning and modelling approach

Poor functional outcomes are common in individuals at clinical high-risk for psychosis (CHR-P), but the contribution of cognitive deficits remains unclear. We examined the potential utility of cognitive variables in predictive models of functioning at baseline and follow-up with machine learning methods. Additional models fitted on baseline functioning variables were used as a benchmark to evaluate model performance. Data were available for 1) 146 CHR-P individuals of whom 118 completed a 6- and/or 12-month follow-up, 2) 47 participants not fulfilling CHR criteria (CHR-Ns) but displaying affective and substance use disorders and 3) 55 healthy controls (HCs). Predictors of baseline global assessment of functioning (GAF) scores were selected by L1-regularised least angle regression and then used to train classifiers to predict functional outcome in CHR-P individuals. In CHR-P participants, cognitive deficits together with clinical and functioning variables explained 41% of the variance in baseline GAF scores while cognitive variables alone explained 12%. These variables allowed classification of functional outcome with an average balanced accuracy (BAC) of 63% in both mixed- and cross-site models. However, higher accuracies (68%-70%) were achieved using classifiers fitted only on baseline functioning variables. Our findings suggest that cognitive deficits, alongside clinical and functioning variables, displayed robust relationships with impaired functioning in CHR-P participants at baseline and follow-up. Moreover, these variables allow for prediction of functional outcome. However, models based on baseline functioning variables showed a similar performance, highlighting the need to develop more accurate algorithms for predicting functional outcome in CHR-P participants.

EPA guidance on the early intervention in clinical high risk states of psychoses

This guidance paper from the European Psychiatric Association (EPA) aims to provide evidence-based recommendations on early intervention in clinical high risk (CHR) states of psychosis, assessed according to the EPA guidance on early detection. The recommendations were derived from a meta-analysis of current empirical evidence on the efficacy of psychological and pharmacological interventions in CHR samples. Eligible studies had to investigate conversion rate and/or functioning as a treatment outcome in CHR patients defined by the ultra-high risk and/or basic symptom criteria. Besides analyses on treatment effects on conversion rate and functional outcome, age and type of intervention were examined as potential moderators. Based on data from 15 studies (n = 1394), early intervention generally produced significantly reduced conversion rates at 6- to 48-month follow-up compared to control conditions. However, early intervention failed to achieve significantly greater functional improvements because both early intervention and control conditions produced similar positive effects. With regard to the type of intervention, both psychological and pharmacological interventions produced significant effects on conversion rates, but not on functional outcome relative to the control conditions. Early intervention in youth samples was generally less effective than in predominantly adult samples. Seven evidence-based recommendations for early intervention in CHR samples could have been formulated, although more studies are needed to investigate the specificity of treatment effects and potential age effects in order to tailor interventions to the individual treatment needs and risk status.

Towards a framework for good outcome in people at clinical high risk for psychosis: A Delphi consensus study

BACKGROUND

Outcomes in people at clinical high risk for psychosis (CHRP) have usually been defined in terms of psychosis onset. However, within the subgroup of individuals who do not develop psychosis, some have persistent symptoms; while in others, symptoms resolve and functioning is restored. Currently, little is known about what predicts a good outcome (GO) in CHR-P individuals, partly because there is no consensus on how this should be defined.

METHOD

The Delphi method was used to elicit the opinions of 46 experts to reach a consensus on factors that together could define GO in the CHR-P population. Three online surveys were implemented. The panel rated each survey item according to how important they thought it was as a measure of GO. Participants also answered open-ended questions on how GO should be determined, their responses were subject to content analysis.

RESULTS

Ninety-eight items were endorsed by 80% of the panel as essential or important for a GO; these fell into 4 domains: Functioning; Symptoms; Distress/Suicidality; and Subjective Wellbeing. The individual item that was rated as the most important, was daily functioning. Themes emerged from the qualitative data, which corresponded to the Delphi domains, including 'functioning'; 'clinical factors; and 'user-defined outcomes'.

CONCLUSIONS

A GO in CHR-P subjects can be defined by using a combination of measures from domains that reflect level of functioning; symptoms; distress/suicidality; and subjective wellbeing. These results provide a basis for a standardised definition of good outcome in people at clinical high risk of psychosis.

The Provision of Education and Employment Support At the Outreach and Support in South London (OASIS) Service for People at Clinical High Risk for Psychosis

Clinical services for the early detection of individuals at clinical high risk of psychosis, such as Outreach and Support in South-London (OASIS), have been successful in providing psychological intervention and psychosocial support to young people experiencing emerging signs of serious mental disorders. Despite this, several studies have repeatedly shown that vocational and functional recovery in the clinical high risk for psychosis population is still low. This study aimed at evaluating the presence and nature of educational and employment focused interventions within the OASIS service, in order to inform research and clinical interventions aimed at supporting young people with early signs of psychosis on their path to vocational recovery. The specific objectives were to compare current practice i) to standards defined by the National Institute of Care Excellence guidelines; and ii) to principles defined by Individual Placement and Support (IPS). Nine standards of practice were derived. The OASIS caseload electronic records entered between January 2015 and January 2017 were manually screened. Data collected include sociodemographic, assessment of employment and educational status and support needs, interventions received, contacts with schools, employers and external vocational providers, employment, and educational status. Standards were considered as "met" if they were met for at least 90% of clients. Results suggest that, two out of nine standards were met while the remaining standards were only partially met. In particular, support provided was always focused on competitive employment and mainstream education and support was always based on people's interest. Implications for clinical and research practice are discussed.

Association of Primary Care Consultation Patterns With Early Signs and Symptoms of Psychosis

IMPORTANCE

Primary care is an important part of the care pathway for patients with psychosis; therefore, primary care physicians need to be able to accurately identify those at clinical high risk of psychosis. The difficulty of this task is increased because clinical high-risk symptoms are frequently nonspecific to psychosis.

OBJECTIVE

To determine whether the consultation patterns for a prespecified set of symptoms can be used to identify primary care patients who later developed a psychotic illness.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This nested case-control study used primary care consultation data collected from 530 primary care practices in 13 UK regions from January 1, 2000, through September 30, 2009. Participants included 11 690 adults with a diagnosis of psychosis and 81 793 control participants who did not have a diagnosis of psychosis individually matched by age group, sex, and primary care practice. Data were analyzed from July 1, 2015, through June 2, 2017.

EXPOSURES

Prespecified symptoms selected from literature included attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder-like symptoms, bizarre behavior, blunted affect, problems associated with cannabis, depressive symptoms, role functioning problems, social isolation, symptoms of mania, obsessive-compulsive disorder-like symptoms, disordered personal hygiene, sleep disturbance, problems associated with cigarette smoking, and suicidal behavior (including self-harm).

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Case (diagnosis of psychosis) or control (no diagnosis of psychosis) status. Conditional logistic regression was used to investigate the association between symptoms and case-control status in the 5 years before diagnosis. Positive predictive values (PPVs) were calculated using the Bayes theorem for symptoms stratified by age group and sex. Repeated-measures Poisson regression was used to investigate symptom consultation rate.

RESULTS

Of the total sample of 93 483 participants, 57.4% were female and 40.0% were older than 60 years (mean [SD] age, 51.34 [21.75] years). Twelve symptoms were associated with a later psychotic diagnosis (all prespecified symptoms except disordered personal hygiene). The strongest association was with suicidal behavior (odds ratio [OR], 19.06; 95% CI, 16.55-21.95). Positive predictive values were heterogeneous across age and sex. The highest PPVs were for suicidal behavior (33.0% in men 24 years or younger [95% CI, 24.2%-43.2%] and 19.6% in women aged 25-34 years [95% CI, 13.7%-27.2%]). Pairs of symptoms were associated with an increase in PPV. Consultation rates were higher in cases and increased 3 months before diagnosis.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

Most of the preselected nonspecific symptoms were associated with a later psychotic diagnosis, particularly among young men consulting for suicidal behavior, especially if consulting with increasing frequency. These symptoms should alert physicians to patients who may benefit from a further assessment of psychotic symptoms.

Prediction Models of Functional Outcomes for Individuals in the Clinical High-Risk State for Psychosis or With Recent-Onset Depression: A Multimodal, Multisite Machine Learning Analysis

IMPORTANCE

Social and occupational impairments contribute to the burden of psychosis and depression. There is a need for risk stratification tools to inform personalized functional-disability preventive strategies for individuals in at-risk and early phases of these illnesses.

OBJECTIVE

To determine whether predictors associated with social and role functioning can be identified in patients in clinical high-risk (CHR) states for psychosis or with recent-onset depression (ROD) using clinical, imaging-based, and combined machine learning; assess the geographic, transdiagnostic, and prognostic generalizability of machine learning and compare it with human prognostication; and explore sequential prognosis encompassing clinical and combined machine learning.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This multisite naturalistic study followed up patients in CHR states, with ROD, and with recent-onset psychosis, and healthy control participants for 18 months in 7 academic early-recognition services in 5 European countries. Participants were recruited between February 2014 and May 2016, and data were analyzed from April 2017 to January 2018.

AIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Performance and generalizability of prognostic models.

RESULTS

A total of 116 individuals in CHR states (mean [SD] age, 24.0 [5.1] years; 58 [50.0%] female) and 120 patients with ROD (mean [SD] age, 26.1 [6.1] years; 65 [54.2%] female) were followed up for a mean (SD) of 329 (142) days. Machine learning predicted the 1-year social-functioning outcomes with a balanced accuracy of 76.9% of patients in CHR states and 66.2% of patients with ROD using clinical baseline data. Balanced accuracy in models using structural neuroimaging was 76.2% in patients in CHR states and 65.0% in patients with ROD, and in combined models, it was 82.7% for CHR states and 70.3% for ROD. Lower functioning before study entry was a transdiagnostic predictor. Medial prefrontal and temporo-parieto-occipital gray matter volume (GMV) reductions and cerebellar and dorsolateral prefrontal GMV increments had predictive value in the CHR group; reduced mediotemporal and increased prefrontal-perisylvian GMV had predictive value in patients with ROD. Poor prognoses were associated with increased risk of psychotic, depressive, and anxiety disorders at follow-up in patients in the CHR state but not ones with ROD. Machine learning outperformed expert prognostication. Adding neuroimaging machine learning to clinical machine learning provided a 1.9-fold increase of prognostic certainty in uncertain cases of patients in CHR states, and a 10.5-fold increase of prognostic certainty for patients with ROD.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

Precision medicine tools could augment effective therapeutic strategies aiming at the prevention of social functioning impairments in patients with CHR states or with ROD.

A critique of the "ultra-high risk" and "transition" paradigm

The transdiagnostic expression of psychotic experiences in common mental disorder (anxiety/depression/substance use disorder) is associated with a poorer prognosis, and a small minority of people may indeed develop a clinical picture that meets criteria for schizophrenia. However, it appears neither useful nor valid to observe early states of multidimensional psychopathology in young people through the "schizo"-prism, and apply misleadingly simple, unnecessary and inefficient binary concepts of "risk" and "transition". A review of the "ultra-high risk" (UHR) or "clinical high risk" (CHR) literature indicates that UHR/CHR samples are highly heterogeneous and represent individuals diagnosed with common mental disorder (anxiety/depression/substance use disorder) and a degree of psychotic experiences. Epidemiological research has shown that psychotic experiences are a (possibly non-causal) marker of the severity of multidimensional psychopathology, driving poor outcome, yet notions of "risk" and "transition" in UHR/CHR research are restrictively defined on the basis of positive psychotic phenomena alone, ignoring how baseline differences in multidimensional psychopathology may differentially impact course and outcome. The concepts of "risk" and "transition" in UHR/CHR research are measured on the same dimensional scale, yet are used to produce artificial diagnostic shifts. In fact, "transition" in UHR/CHR research occurs mainly as a function of variable sample enrichment strategies rather than the UHR/CHR "criteria" themselves. Furthermore, transition rates in UHR/CHR research are inflated as they do not exclude false positives associated with the natural fluctuation of dimensional expression of psychosis. Biological associations with "transition" thus likely represent false positive findings, as was the initial claim of strong effects of omega-3 polyunsatured fatty acids in UHR samples. A large body of UHR/CHR intervention research has focused on the questionable outcome of "transition", which shows lack of correlation with functional outcome. It may be more productive to consider the full range of person-specific psychopathology in all young individuals who seek help for mental health problems, instead of "policing" youngsters for the transdiagnostic dimension of psychosis. Instead of the relatively inefficient medical high-risk approach, a public health perspective, focusing on improved access to a low-stigma, high-hope, small scale and youth-specific environment with acceptable language and interventions may represent a more useful and efficient strategy.

Persistence of psychosis spectrum symptoms in the Philadelphia Neurodevelopmental Cohort: a prospective two-year follow-up

Prospective evaluation of youths with early psychotic-like experiences can enrich our knowledge of clinical, biobehavioral and environmental risk and protective factors associated with the development of psychotic disorders. We aimed to investigate the predictors of persistence or worsening of psychosis spectrum features among US youth through the first large systematic study to evaluate subclinical symptoms in the community. Based on Time 1 screen of 9,498 youth (age 8-21) from the Philadelphia Neurodevelopmental Cohort, a subsample of participants was enrolled based on the presence (N=249) or absence (N=254) of baseline psychosis spectrum symptoms, prior participation in neuroimaging, and current neuroimaging eligibility. They were invited to participate in a Time 2 assessment two years on average following Time 1. Participants were administered the Structured Interview for Prodromal Syndromes, conducted blind to initial screen status, along with the Schizotypal Personality Questionnaire and other clinical measures, computerized neurocognitive testing, and neuroimaging. Clinical and demographic predictors of symptom persistence were examined using logistic regression. At Time 2, psychosis spectrum features persisted or worsened in 51.4% of youths. Symptom persistence was predicted by higher severity of subclinical psychosis, lower global functioning, and prior psychiatric medication at baseline. Youths classified as having psychosis spectrum symptoms at baseline but not at follow-up nonetheless exhibited comparatively higher symptom levels and lower functioning at both baseline and follow-up than typically developing youths. In addition, psychosis spectrum features emerged in a small number of young people who previously had not reported significant symptoms but who had exhibited early clinical warning signs. Together, our findings indicate that varying courses of psychosis spectrum symptoms are evident early in US youth, supporting the importance of investigating psychosis risk as a dynamic developmental process. Neurocognition, brain structure and function, and genomics may be integrated with clinical data to provide early indices of symptom persistence and worsening in youths at risk for psychosis.

The Youth Mental Health Risk and Resilience Study (YouR-Study)

BACKGROUND

The transition from adolescence to adulthood is associated with the emergence of psychosis and other mental health problems, highlighting the importance of this developmental period for the understanding of developing psychopathology and individual differences in risk and resilience. The Youth Mental Health Risk and Resilience Study (YouR-Study) aims to identify neurobiological mechanisms and predictors of psychosis-risk with a state-of-the-art neuroimaging approach (Magnetoencephalography, Magnetic Resonance Spectroscopy, Magnetic Resonance Imaging) in combination with core psychological processes, such as affect regulation and attachment, that have been implicated in the development and maintenance of severe mental health problems.

METHODS/DESIGN

One hundred participants meeting clinical high-risk criteria (CHR) for psychosis through the Comprehensive Assessment of At-Risk Mental State and Schizophrenia Proneness Instrument, Adult Version, in the age range from 16 to 35 years of age will be recruited. Mental-state monitoring up to a total of 2 years will be implemented to detect transition to psychosis. In addition, a sample of n = 40 help-seeking participants will be recruited who do not meet CHR-criteria, a group of n = 50 healthy control participants and a sample of n = 25 patients with first-episode psychosis. MEG-activity will be obtained during auditory and visual tasks to examine neural oscillations and event-related fields. In addition, we will obtain estimates of GABA and Glutamate levels through Magnetic Resonance Spectroscopy (MRS) to examine relationships between neural synchrony and excitatory-inhibition (E/I) balance parameters. Neuroimaging will be complemented by detailed neuropsychological assessments as well as psychological measures investigating the impact of childhood abuse, attachment experiences and affect regulation.

DISCUSSION

The YouR-study could potentially provide important insights into the neurobiological mechanisms that confer risk for psychosis as well as biomarkers for early diagnosis of severe mental health problems. Moreover, we expect novel data related to the contribution of affect regulation and attachment-processes in the development of mental health problems, leading to an integrative model of early stage psychosis and the factors underlying risk and resilience of emerging psychopathology.

Childhood maltreatment and transition to psychotic disorder independently predict long-term functioning in young people at ultra-high risk for psychosis

BACKGROUND

Individuals identified as at ultra-high risk (UHR) for psychosis are at risk of poor functional outcome regardless of development of psychotic disorder. Studies examining longitudinal predictors of poor functioning have tended to be small and report only medium-term follow-up data. We sought to examine clinical predictors of functional outcome in a long-term longitudinal study.

METHOD

Participants were 268 (152 females, 116 males) individuals identified as UHR 2-14 years previously. A range of clinical and sociodemographic variables were assessed at baseline. Functioning at follow-up was assessed using the Social and Occupational Functioning Assessment Scale (SOFAS).

RESULTS

Baseline negative symptoms, impaired emotional functioning, disorders of thought content, low functioning, past substance use disorder and history of childhood maltreatment predicted poor functioning at follow-up in univariate analyses. Only childhood maltreatment remained significant in the multivariate analysis (p < 0.001). Transition to psychosis was also significantly associated with poor functioning at long-term follow-up [mean SOFAS score 59.12 (s.d. = 18.54) in the transitioned group compared to 70.89 (s.d. = 14.00) in the non-transitioned group, p < 0.001]. Childhood maltreatment was a significant predictor of poor functioning in both the transitioned and non-transitioned groups.

CONCLUSIONS

Childhood maltreatment and transition to psychotic disorder independently predicted poor long-term functioning. This suggests that it is important to assess history of childhood maltreatment in clinical management of UHR individuals. The finding that transition to psychosis predicts poor long-term functioning strengthens the evidence that the UHR criteria detect a subgroup at risk for schizophrenia.

Patterns of premorbid functioning in individuals at clinical high risk of psychosis

In schizophrenia, four typical patterns of premorbid functioning have been observed: stable-good, stable-intermediate, poor-deteriorating and deteriorating. However, it is unknown whether similar patterns exist in those who are at clinical high risk (CHR) of psychosis. The aim of this study was to examine patterns of premorbid functioning in a large sample of individuals at CHR of psychosis and its association with symptoms, functioning, and conversion to psychosis. One-hundred sixty people at CHR of psychosis were assessed on premorbid functioning using the Premorbid Adjustment Scale. Poorer premorbid functioning was significantly correlated with worse negative symptom severity and lower social functioning. Cluster analysis was used to identify patterns of premorbid functioning. Results indicated three patterns of premorbid functioning in our CHR sample: stable-intermediate, stable-good, and deteriorating. The deteriorating group had more severe disorganization, worse negative symptoms, and poorer social functioning than the other groups. Participants who made the conversion to psychosis had significantly poorer premorbid functioning during adolescence compared to those who did not convert. These results suggest that those at a clinical high risk for psychosis display similar patterns in premorbid functioning as have been observed in those with a psychotic illness and that poor premorbid functioning may be a predictor of psychosis.

Predictors of functional outcome in individuals at high clinical risk for psychosis at six years follow-up

BACKGROUND

The long-term functional status of subjects at ultra high risk for psychosis (HR) is relatively under investigated. This study explores baseline predictors of long-term functional outcome in HR subjects who did not convert to psychosis during a 6 years follow-up period.

METHODS

A total of 154 HR were followed up for an average of 6 years. The primary outcome variable was global assessment of functioning at the last follow-up visit as assessed with the Global Assessment of Functioning tool. A multinomial logistic regression was performed to identify potential predictors of functional outcome.

RESULTS

Baseline and follow-up data on functioning was available for 92 HR. Twenty-four (43%) individuals who did not convert to psychosis reported poor functioning at follow-up. Baseline scores in the GAF (Exp(b) = 0.857; 95% CIs: 0.75/0.97), employment status (Exp(b) = 0.029; 95% CIs: 0.00/0.268), and CAARMS total scores (Exp(b) = 1.976; 95% CIs: 1.00/1.14) predicted functional outcome in HR subjects at 6 years.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite the preventive treatments received, many individuals who did not convert to full-blown psychosis in the longer term do not functionally remit. These individuals are lower functioning, unemployed and have higher symptom loading at the time of their presentation to the prodromal clinic. Our study suggests the need for innovative treatments targeting long term functional status beyond the prevention of psychosis onset in the HR population.

Disability and Functional Burden of Disease Because of Mental in Comparison to Somatic Disorders in General Practice Patients

Background

Severity of illness is not only depending on the symptom load, but also on the burden in life. Mental disorders are among those illnesses, which in particular cause suffering to the individual and society.

Method

To study burden of disease for mental in comparison to somatic disorders, 2099 patients from 40 general practitioners filled in (a) the Burvill scale which measures acute and chronic illnesses in ten different body systems and (b) the IMET scale which measures impairment in ten different areas of life.

Results

Patients were suffering on average from acute and/or chronic illness in 3.5 (SD: 2.0) body systems and 56.6% of patients complained about acute and/or chronic mental disorders. The most significant negative impact on the IMET total score have acute and chronic mental disorders, followed by chronic neurological and musculoskeletal and acute respiratory and gastrointestinal disorders, while cardiovascular, metabolic, urogenital, haematological and ear/eye disorders have no greater impact. Acute as well as chronic mental disorders cause impairment across all areas of life and most burden of disease (functional burden of disease 1.69), followed by musculoskeletal disorders (1.62).

Conclusion

Mental disorders are among the most frequent health problems with high negative impact across all areas of life. When combining frequency and impairment mental disorders cause most burden of disease in comparison to other illnesses. This should be reflected in the organization of medical care including family medicine.

First-rank symptoms and premorbid adjustment in young individuals at increased risk of developing psychosis

BACKGROUND

Individuals at clinical high risk (CHR) for psychosis represent a heterogeneous group with a high rate of comorbid psychiatric disorders. There is little information on whether certain qualitative aspects of psychotic symptoms among CHR individuals may be predictive of future psychosis. This study focused on describing the prevalence of first-rank symptoms (FRS) among a sample of CHR individuals and its association with future transition to psychosis and, from a neurodevelopmental perspective, the level of adjustment of individuals at CHR during their childhood was also analysed.

SAMPLING AND METHODS

Participants comprised 60 individuals at CHR (according to the Comprehensive Assessment of At-Risk Mental States, CAARMS) at the time of their referral to an early intervention service and 60 healthy volunteers (HVs). All subjects were assessed by senior research clinicians using the Mini International Neuropsychiatric Interview (MINI), and the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale (PANSS). FRS were defined according to Kurt Schneider's original classification, and information was collected from PANSS, CAARMS and clinical reports. Early premorbid functioning was measured using the Premorbid Adjustment Scale (PAS). We grouped individuals by number and type of FRS and analysed transitions to full-blown psychosis over a 2-year follow-up period. We also correlated the general social and functional adjustment of these individuals during their childhood (6-11 years of age) with the future development of mental states at CHR and FRS.

RESULTS

Over 69% of CHR individuals had more than one DSM-IV psychiatric diagnosis, mainly within the affective and anxiety diagnostic spectra. At least one FRS was present in 43.3% of CHR individuals, and 21.6% of these had more than one. Auditory hallucinations and passivity experiences were the most commonly reported. Only 10% of individuals at CHR made a transition to first-episode psychosis (FEP) over 2 years and, except for passivity experiences, the presence of one or more FRS was not significantly associated with the transition to FEP. CHR individuals, especially those with FRS, had poorer premorbid functioning and adjustment as children across educational, social and peer relationship domains than HVs. However, this was not associated with FEP 2 years later.

CONCLUSIONS

FRS might not be indicators of psychosis alone but of different psychiatric disorders. In line with the neurodevelopmental model of psychosis, individuals at CHR might be exhibiting several vulnerability traits and manifestations of abnormal developmental processes that might predict a future psychiatric disorder and/or long-term impairment.

Prediction and prevention of psychosis: current progress and future tasks

Prevention of psychoses has been intensively investigated within the past two decades, and particularly, prediction has been much advanced. Depending on the applied risk indicators, current criteria are associated with average, yet significantly heterogeneous transition rates of ≥30 % within 3 years, further increasing with longer follow-up periods. Risk stratification offers a promising approach to advance current prediction as it can help to reduce heterogeneity of transition rates and to identify subgroups with specific needs and response patterns, enabling a targeted intervention. It may also be suitable to improve risk enrichment. Current results suggest the future implementation of multi-step risk algorithms combining sensitive risk detection by cognitive basic symptoms (COGDIS) and ultra-high-risk (UHR) criteria with additional individual risk estimation by a prognostic index that relies on further predictors such as additional clinical indicators, functional impairment, neurocognitive deficits, and EEG and structural MRI abnormalities, but also considers resilience factors. Simply combining COGDIS and UHR criteria in a second step of risk stratification produced already a 4-year hazard rate of 0.66. With regard to prevention, two recent meta-analyses demonstrated that preventive measures enable a reduction in 12-month transition rates by 54-56 % with most favorable numbers needed to treat of 9-10. Unfortunately, psychosocial functioning, another important target of preventive efforts, did not improve. However, these results are based on a relatively small number of trials; and more methodologically sound studies and a stronger consideration of individual profiles of clinical needs by modular intervention programs are required.