Large carnivore impacts are context-dependent

Impacts of predation risk on learning and memory of free-living mice

In predator-prey interactions, responses to predation risk typically involve behavioural, morphological or physiological changes. Laboratory-based studies have also shown changes in prey cognition (i.e. learning and memory), with individuals often showing impairment. However, an ecological perspective predicts that wild animals should conserve their cognitive ability, given that many risk responses require robust cognition. Here, we simulated predation risk and used a field-adapted version of the Morris Water Maze (MWM) to investigate how chronic predation risk affects cognition in wild white-footed mice (Peromyscus leucopus). We found that 24 days' exposure to predation risk did not impair learning. However, those exposed to risk had a 25% reduction of their short-term memory. Twelve days post-risk exposure, we found no performance differences between risk-exposed and control mice. Additionally, risk-exposed mice displayed greater exploration with a higher probability of completing the MWM in their initial trial. Given that prey integrate multiple pieces of information to shape their behaviour, the lack of learning impairment and altered exploration strategies may help mice respond to predation risk. However, the tendency of memory impairment suggests there are consequences for cognition when experiencing increased predation risk.

Coexisting with large carnivores based on the Volterra principle

Coexistence with large carnivores represents one of the world's highest profile conservation challenges. Ecologists have identified ecological benefits derived from large carnivores (and large herbivores), yet livestock depredation, perceived competition for shared game, risks to pets and humans, and social conflicts often lead to demands for reduction of predator numbers from a range of stakeholder groups. Nearly 100 years ago, Vito Volterra predicted that increased mortality on both prey and predators results in increased abundance of prey and decreased abundance of predators. This principle appears to be robust and often consistent with the objectives of wildlife management. Although seldom recognized, and rarely tested in the field, the Volterra principle is a fundamental outcome of ecological theory with important implications for conservation.

Influence of Human Hunting Strategies and Large Carnivore Presence on Population Dynamics of European Facultative Scavengers

Ungulates serve as the primary carrion source for facultative scavengers in European ecosystems. In the absence of large carnivores, such as wolves (Canis lupus), human hunting leftovers are the main source of carrion for these scavengers. Additionally, wild boars (Sus scrofa) are heavily culled in many ecosystems and are both a significant prey species for wolves as well as a key scavenger. Nowadays, wolves and wild boars are re-establishing their historical home ranges. However, it remains unclear how their presence influences the population dynamics of facultative scavengers under different scenarios of human hunting strategies. We simulated the biomass densities of all states in the trophic web including European scavengers and wolves using an ordinary differential equations (ODE) model. The presence of wolves led to a positive trend in scavenger biomass in general. However, in general, we found that plant-based resources were more important for scavenger dynamics than carrion, regardless of whether the carrion originated from human hunting or wolf predation. Only when wolves were absent but boars present, the human hunting strategy became important in determining scavenger dynamics via carrion supply. In conclusion, our model indicates that population dynamics of facultative scavengers are not mainly driven by the availability of carrion, but rather by the presence of and competition for vegetation. Furthermore, our simulations highlight the importance of adapting human hunting strategies in accordance with the re-establishment of wolf and boar as these can cause fluctuating population patterns over the years.

Spatio-temporal interactions between the red fox and the wolf in two contrasting European landscapes

Relationships among carnivore species are complex, potentially switching from competition to facilitation on a context-dependent basis. Negative associations are predicted to increase with latitude, due to limited resources emphasising competition and/or intra-guild predation. Accordingly, a stronger negative correlation between large- and meso-carnivore abundances should be expected at higher latitudes, with a substantial spatio-temporal partitioning favouring interspecific coexistence. Human presence may influence spatio-temporal relationships between (meso)carnivore species, as it can be perceived as a risk factor, but anthropogenic food can also provide an important additional food resource. Using camera-trap data, we studied the spatio-temporal associations between two of the most widespread carnivores in Europe, i.e., the red fox and wolf. We compared their monthly/daily spatio-temporal partitioning between two different landscapes: Białowieża Primeval Forest (Poland) and the Mediterranean Maremma Regional Park (Italy). We predicted a stronger interspecific partitioning, as well as more attraction of red foxes to humans in the northern site (Poland). Temporal activity patterns of the two carnivores overlapped in both sites, and their detection rates were positively associated, even though in weaker way in Poland. We observed a positive spatial association of red foxes with human activity in Białowieża, but not in Maremma. This association occurred only at a monthly temporal scale and disappeared at a daily scale, suggesting some disturbance in the shorter term. Our results provided partial support to our predictions and suggest that, despite the ecological differences between our study areas, only weak differences in wolf-fox relations were observed, suggesting that red fox responses to wolves may be relatively comparable over large spatial scales.

Badgers remain fearless in the face of simulated wolf presence near their setts

Many mesocarnivores are fossorial and use burrow systems to avoid predators. But fossorial animals cannot stay safely underground forever; they must also risk emerging overground to forage and find mates. To make this trade-off effectively and maximise their own fitness, it is imperative they assess how risk varies in space and time and adapt their denning behaviour accordingly. We used the badger in Białowieża Forest, Poland, as a model for investigating how the denning behaviour of a fossorial mesocarnivore varies in response to short-term large carnivore risk. To this end, we experimentally simulated perceived wolf presence outside 10 badger setts using audio playbacks of wolves (their howls). We assayed two behavioural measures of fear: badger emergence time from setts on the day playbacks were broadcast and their presence in setts on the day after. We found that neither badger emergence time nor next-day sett use varied in response to wolf playbacks. The results of the present study contrast with a previous study of ours that found badgers used setts in areas with high landscape level perceived wolf risk less often than those in lower-risk areas. Together, these papers' findings suggest that different spatiotemporal scales of perceived risk can have differential effects on badger behaviour. We conclude that rather than take risk avoidance measures at all risky times and places, badgers likely display a diversity of reactions to large carnivore presence that depend on the context and spatiotemporal scale of the risk being perceived.

Death comes for us all: relating movement-integrated habitat selection and social behavior to human-associated and disease-related mortality among gray wolves

Avoiding death affects biological processes, including behavior. Habitat selection, movement, and sociality are highly flexible behaviors that influence the mortality risks and subsequent fitness of individuals. In the Anthropocene, animals are experiencing increased risks from direct human causes and increased spread of infectious diseases. Using integrated step selection analysis, we tested how the habitat selection, movement, and social behaviors of gray wolves vary in the two months prior to death due to humans (being shot or trapped) or canine distemper virus (CDV). We further tested how those behaviors vary as a prelude to death. We studied populations of wolves that occurred under two different management schemes: a national park managed for conservation and a provincially managed multi-use area. Behaviors that changed prior to death were strongly related to how an animal eventually died. Wolves killed by humans moved slower than wolves that survived and selected to be nearer roads closer in time to their death. Wolves that died due to CDV moved progressively slower as they neared death and reduced their avoidance of wet habitats. All animals, regardless of dying or living, maintained selection to be near packmates across time, which seemingly contributed to disease dynamics in the packs infected with CDV. There were no noticeable differences in behavior between the two management areas. Overall, habitat selection, movement, and sociality interact to put individuals and groups at greater risks, influencing their cause-specific mortality.

Interactions between carnivore species: limited spatiotemporal partitioning between apex predator and smaller carnivores in a Mediterranean protected area

BACKGROUND

There is need of information on ecological interactions that keystone species such as apex predators establish in ecosystems recently recolonised. Interactions among carnivore species have the potential to influence community-level processes, with consequences for ecosystem dynamics. Although avoidance of apex predators by smaller carnivores has been reported, there is increasing evidence that the potential for competitive-to-facilitative interactions is context-dependent. In a protected area recently recolonised by the wolf Canis lupus and hosting abundant wild prey (3 ungulate species, 20-30 individuals/km2, together), we used 5-year food habit analyses and 3-year camera trapping to (i) investigate the role of mesocarnivores (4 species) in the wolf diet; (ii) test for temporal, spatial, and fine-scale spatiotemporal association between mesocarnivores and the wolf.

RESULTS

Wolf diet was dominated by large herbivores (86% occurrences, N = 2201 scats), with mesocarnivores occurring in 2% scats. We collected 12,808 carnivore detections over > 19,000 camera trapping days. We found substantial (i.e., generally ≥ 0.75, 0-1 scale) temporal overlap between mesocarnivores-in particular red fox-and the wolf, with no support for negative temporal or spatial associations between mesocarnivore and wolf detection rates. All the species were nocturnal/crepuscular and results suggested a minor role of human activity in modifying interspecific spatiotemporal partitioning.

CONCLUSIONS

Results suggest that the local great availability of large prey to wolves limited negative interactions towards smaller carnivores, thus reducing the potential for spatiotemporal avoidance. Our study emphasises that avoidance patterns leading to substantial spatiotemporal partitioning are not ubiquitous in carnivore guilds.

Large carnivores avoid humans while prioritizing prey acquisition in anthropogenic areas

Large carnivores are recovering in many landscapes where the human footprint is simultaneously growing. When carnivores encounter humans, the way they behave often changes, which may subsequently influence how they affect their prey. However, little research investigates the behavioural mechanisms underpinning carnivore response to humans. As a result, it is not clear how predator-prey interactions and their associated ecosystem processes will play out in the human-dominated areas into which carnivore populations are increasingly expanding. We hypothesized that humans would reduce predation risk for prey by disturbing carnivores or threatening their survival. Alternatively, or additionally, we hypothesized that humans would increase predation risk by providing forage resources that congregate herbivorous prey in predictable places and times. Using grey wolves Canis lupus in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, USA as a study species, we investigated 170 kill sites across a spectrum of human influences ranging from heavily restricted human activities on protected federal lands to largely unregulated activities on private lands. Then, we used conditional logistic regression to quantify how the probability of predation changed across varied types and amounts of human influences, while controlling for environmental characteristics and prey availability. Wolves primarily made kills in environmental terrain traps and where prey availability was high, but predation risk was significantly better explained with the inclusion of human influences than by environmental characteristics alone. Different human influences had different, and even converse, effects on the risk of wolf predation. For example, where prey were readily available, wolves preferentially killed animals far from motorized roads but close to unpaved trails. However, wolves responded less strongly to humans, if at all, where prey were scarce, suggesting they prioritized acquiring prey over avoiding human interactions. Overall, our work reveals that the effects of large carnivores on prey populations can vary considerably among different types of human influences, yet carnivores may not appreciably alter predatory behaviour in response to humans if prey are difficult to obtain. These results shed new light on the drivers of large carnivore behaviour in anthropogenic areas while improving understanding of predator-prey dynamics in and around the wildland-urban interface.

How Should We Help Wild Animals Cope with Climate Change? The Case of the Iberian Lynx

Climate change and related shifts in weather conditions result in massive biodiversity declines and severe animal suffering. This article explores the measures that can be taken to decrease animal suffering and prevent species from going extinct. Taking the Iberian lynx as a case study, we assess the extent to which it is beneficial for animal welfare and species conservation to do nothing or reduce other threats, provide food or shelter, relocate the species via assisted migration, or bring the population into captivity. We argue that, given the Iberian lynx's non-invasive characteristics, assisted migration may be the best way to protect the species while ensuring animal welfare and protecting wildness and other ecosystem values.

Context-dependency in carnivore co-occurrence across a multi-use conservation landscape

Carnivore intraguild dynamics depend on a complex interplay of environmental affinities and interspecific interactions. Context-dependency is commonly expected with varying suites of interacting species and environmental conditions but seldom empirically described. In South Africa, decentralized approaches to conservation and the resulting multi-tenure conservation landscapes have markedly altered the environmental stage that shapes the structure of local carnivore assemblages. We explored assemblage-wide patterns of carnivore spatial (residual occupancy probability) and temporal (diel activity overlap) co-occurrence across three adjacent wildlife-oriented management contexts-a provincial protected area, a private ecotourism reserve, and commercial game ranches. We found that carnivores were generally distributed independently across space, but existing spatial dependencies were context-specific. Spatial overlap was most common in the protected area, where species occur at higher relative abundances, and in game ranches, where predator persecution presumably narrows the scope for spatial asymmetries. In the private reserve, spatial co-occurrence patterns were more heterogeneous but did not follow a dominance hierarchy associated with higher apex predator densities. Pair-specific variability suggests that subordinate carnivores may alternate between pre-emptive behavioral strategies and fine-scale co-occurrence with dominant competitors. Consistency in species-pairs diel activity asynchrony suggested that temporal overlap patterns in our study areas mostly depend on species' endogenous clock rather than the local context. Collectively, our research highlights the complexity and context-dependency of guild-level implications of current management and conservation paradigms; specifically, the unheeded potential for interventions to influence the local network of carnivore interactions with unknown population-level and cascading effects.

Terrestrial mesopredators did not increase after top-predator removal in a large-scale experimental test of mesopredator release theory

Removal or loss of top-predators has been predicted to cause cascading negative effects for ecosystems, including mesopredator release. However, reliable evidence for these processes in terrestrial systems has been mixed and equivocal due, in large part, to the systemic and continued use of low-inference study designs to investigate this issue. Even previous large-scale manipulative experiments of strong inferential value have been limited by experimental design features (i.e. failure to prevent migration between treatments) that constrain possible inferences about the presence or absence of mesopredator release effects. Here, we build on these previous strong-inference experiments and report the outcomes of additional large-scale manipulative experiments to eradicate Australian dingoes from two fenced areas where dingo migration was restricted and where theory would predict an increase in extant European red foxes, feral cats and goannas. We demonstrate the removal and suppression of dingoes to undetectable levels over 4–5 years with no corresponding increases in mesopredator relative abundances, which remained low and stable throughout the experiment at both sites. We further demonstrate widespread absence of negative relationships between predators, indicating that the mechanism underpinning predicted mesopredator releases was not present. Our results are consistent with all previous large-scale manipulative experiments and long-term mensurative studies which collectively demonstrate that (1) dingoes do not suppress red foxes, feral cats or goannas at the population level, (2) repeated, temporary suppression of dingoes in open systems does not create mesopredator release effects, and (3) removal and sustained suppression of dingoes to undetectable levels in closed systems does not create mesopredator release effects either. Our experiments add to similar reports from North America, Asia, Europe and southern Africa which indicate that not only is there a widespread absence of reliable evidence for these processes, but there is also a large and continually growing body of experimental evidence of absence for these processes in many terrestrial systems. We conclude that although sympatric predators may interact negatively with each other on smaller spatiotemporal scales, that these negative interactions do not always scale-up to the population level, nor are they always strong enough to create mesopredator suppression or release effects.

Mesocarnivore community structuring in the presence of Africa's apex predator

Apex predator reintroductions have proliferated across southern Africa, yet their ecological effects and proposed umbrella benefits of associated management lack empirical evaluations. Despite a rich theory on top-down ecosystem regulation via mesopredator suppression, a knowledge gap exists relating to the influence of lions (Panthera leo) over Africa's diverse mesocarnivore (less than 20 kg) communities. We investigate how geographical variation in mesocarnivore community richness and occupancy across South African reserves is associated with the presence of lions. An interesting duality emerged: lion reserves held more mesocarnivore-rich communities, yet mesocarnivore occupancy rates and evenness-weighted diversity were lower in the presence of lions. Human population density in the reserve surroundings had a similarly ubiquitous negative effect on mesocarnivore occupancy. The positive association between species richness and lion presence corroborated the umbrella species concept but translated into small differences in community size. Distributional contractions of mesocarnivore species within lion reserves, and potentially corresponding numerical reductions, suggest within-community mesopredator suppression by lions, probably as a result of lethal encounters and responses to a landscape of fear. Our findings offer empirical support for the theoretical understanding of processes underpinning carnivore community assembly and are of conservation relevance under current large-predator orientated management and conservation paradigms.

A framework of integrated research for managing introduced predators in the Pilbara bioregion, Western Australia

The effective control of wild dogs, feral cats and foxes is of primary interest to land managers, both for biodiversity conservation and for the protection of livestock. Control programs primarily target single species within the context of biodiversity conservation or livestock practices, but their effectiveness in depressing predator densities is unclear because monitoring is limited or not conducted. Here, we review and discuss the outcomes of a workshop to identify research priorities for managing predation on native fauna by introduced predators in the Pilbara bioregion in Western Australia. We suggest that the control of introduced predators will be most effective if it is implemented at a landscape-scale comprising integrated predator management that considers interspecific (predator) interactions combined with standardised monitoring to measure the effectiveness and benefits of control. Four research themes were identified: (1) collation and collection of baseline data, (2) effective monitoring of introduced predators, (3) understanding functional (ecological) roles of introduced predators within the different ecosystem contexts, and (4) identifying novel complementary approaches to protect threatened species. These themes collectively include research areas that invest in foundational, ecological and alternative biological parameters in research to close knowledge gaps related to the functional roles of introduced predators in the landscape. Addressing these research themes will assist land managers to achieve outcomes that address the needs of both biodiversity conservation and pastoral production. This framework is timely given the ongoing investment in offset funding being mobilised in the region.

Large-scale patterns of seed removal by small mammals differ between areas of low- versus high-wolf occupancy

Because most tree species recruit from seeds, seed predation by small-mammal granivores may be important for determining plant distribution and regeneration in forests. Despite the importance of seed predation, large-scale patterns of small-mammal granivory are often highly variable and thus difficult to predict. We hypothesize distributions of apex predators can create large-scale variation in the distribution and abundance of mesopredators that consume small mammals, creating predictable areas of high and low granivory. For example, because gray wolf (Canis lupus) territories are characterized by relatively less use by coyotes (C. latrans) and greater use by foxes (Vulpes vulpes, Urocyon cinereoargentus) that consume a greater proportion of small mammals, wolf territories may be areas of reduced small-mammal granivory. Using large-scale, multiyear field trials at 22 sites with high- and low-wolf occupancy in northern Wisconsin, we evaluated whether removal of seeds of four tree species was lower in wolf territories. Consistent with the hypothesized consequences of wolf occupancy, seed removal of three species was more than 25% lower in high-wolf-occupancy areas across 2 years and small-mammal abundance was more than 40% lower in high-wolf areas during one of two study years. These significant results, in conjunction with evidence of seed consumption in situ and the absence of significant habitat differences between high- and low-wolf areas, suggest that top-down effects of wolves on small-mammal granivory and seed survival may occur. Understanding how interactions among carnivores create spatial patterns in interactions among lower trophic levels may allow for more accurate predictions of large-scale patterns in seed survival and forest composition.

Fear of the dark? A mesopredator mitigates large carnivore risk through nocturnality, but humans moderate the interaction

Abstract

While constrained by endogenous rhythms, morphology and ecology, animals may still exhibit flexible activity patterns in response to risk. Temporal avoidance of interspecific aggression can enable access to resources without spatial exclusion. Apex predators, including humans, can affect mesopredator activity patterns. Human context might also modify temporal interactions between predators. We explored activity patterns, nocturnality and the effects of human activity upon a guild of carnivores (grey wolf, Canis lupus; Eurasian lynx, Lynx lynx; red fox, Vulpes vulpes) using travel routes in Plitvice Lakes National Park, Croatia. Humans were diurnal, foxes nocturnal and large carnivores active during the night, immediately after sunrise and before sunset. Carnivore activity patterns overlapped greatly and to a similar extent for all pairings. Activity curves followed expectations based on interspecific killing, with activity peaks coinciding where body size differences were small (wolf and lynx) but not when they were intermediate (foxes to large carnivores). Carnivore activity, particularly fox, overlapped much less with that of diurnal humans. Foxes responded to higher large carnivore activity by being more nocturnal. Low light levels likely provide safer conditions by reducing the visual detectability of mesopredators. The nocturnal effect of large carnivores was however moderated and reduced by human activity. This could perhaps be due to temporal shielding or interference with risk cues. Subtle temporal avoidance and nocturnality may enable mesopredators to cope with interspecific aggression at shared spatial resources. Higher human activity moderated the effects of top-down temporal suppression which could consequently affect the trophic interactions of mesopredators.

Significance statement

Temporal partitioning can provide an important mechanism for spatial resource access and species coexistence. Our findings show that carnivores partition the use of shared travel routes in time, using the cover of darkness to travel safely where their suppressors (large carnivores) are more active. We however observed fox nocturnality to be flexible, with responses depending on the activity levels but also the composition of apex predators. High human activity modified the top-down temporal suppression of mesopredators by large carnivores. The use of time by predators can have demographic and trophic consequences. Prey accessibility and susceptibility can be temporally variable. As such, the ecosystem services and the ecological roles of predators may be affected by human time use as well as that of intraguild competitors. Temporal interactions should not be overlooked when evaluating human use and conservation priorities in protected areas.

The Wily and Courageous Red Fox: Behavioural Analysis of a Mesopredator at Resource Points Shared by an Apex Predator

The red fox (Vulpes vulpes) is a widespread and ecologically significant terrestrial mesopredator, that has expanded its range with human globalisation. Despite this, we know relatively little about their behaviour under the wide range of ecological conditions they experience, particularly how they navigate the risk of encounters with apex predators. We conducted the first ethological study of foxes outside their historic native range, in Australia, where both the foxes and their main predator were protected from human hunting. Using remote camera traps, we recorded foxes visiting key resource points regularly utilised by territorial dingoes (Canis dingo), their local apex predator, in the Painted Desert, South Australia. We constructed an ethogram sensitive to a range of behaviours and attitudes. Since foxes are suppressed by dingoes, we expected that the foxes would primarily be in a cautious state. In contrast, we found that foxes were in a confident state most of the time. Where human hunting is absent, social stability of predators may increase predictability and therefore decrease fear.

Lynx eats cat: disease risk assessment during an Iberian lynx intraguild predation

Lethal interactions between members of the carnivore guild are well represented in literature. In the Iberian lynx, interspecific killing (without prey consumption) of some mesocarnivores, such as the Egyptian mongoose, genet, and red fox, has been reported. Although vaguely documented, evidence suggests feral cats fall victim to interactions with this apex predator. Here, we describe the first documented case of interspecific killing and partial consumption of a feral cat by an adult male Iberian lynx reintroduced in Southwestern Spain. Ulterior analyses demonstrated that the victim was viremic to feline leukemia virus. To prevent the dissemination of the virus and a potential outbreak in the Iberian lynx population, control measures, including the clinical evaluation of the male Iberian lynx, and intensive monitoring were implemented in order to detect intraspecific interactions. After 3 weeks, the lynx was evaluated, presented good condition and resulted negative to both ELISA and RT-PCR. Thanks to the long-term monitoring, this case could be detected and measures to prevent an outbreak could be implemented.

Impacts of recolonizing gray wolves (Canis lupus) on survival and mortality in two sympatric ungulates

There is growing recognition that humans may mediate the strength and nature of the ecological effects of large predators. We took advantage of ongoing gray wolf (Canis lupus Linnaeus, 1758) recolonization in Washington, USA, to contrast adult survival rates and sources of mortality for mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus (Rafinesque, 1817)) and white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus (Zimmermann, 1780)) in areas with and without wolf packs in a managed landscape dominated by multiple human uses. We tested the hypothesis that the addition of wolves to the existing predator guild would augment predator-induced mortality rates for both ungulates. Source of mortality data from adult mule deer and white-tailed deer, respectively, revealed that wolf-related mortality was low compared with that inflicted by other predators or humans. Predator-caused mortality was largely confined to winter. There was little effect of wolf presence on adult deer mortality rates, and there was no difference in mortality between the two deer species relative to wolf-free or wolf-occupied sites. Although this study occurred early in wolf recovery in Washington, our results differ from those demonstrated for gray wolves in protected areas. Thus, we encourage further investigation of effects of direct predation by recolonizing large carnivores on prey in human-dominated landscapes.

Fear, foraging and olfaction: how mesopredators avoid costly interactions with apex predators

Where direct killing is rare and niche overlap low, sympatric carnivores may appear to coexist without conflict. Interference interactions, harassment and injury from larger carnivores may still pose a risk to smaller mesopredators. Foraging theory suggests that animals should adjust their behaviour accordingly to optimise foraging efficiency and overall fitness, trading off harvest rate with costs to fitness. The foraging behaviour of red foxes, Vulpes vulpes, was studied with automated cameras and a repeated measures giving-up density (GUD) experiment where olfactory risk cues were manipulated. In Plitvice Lakes National Park, Croatia, red foxes increased GUDs by 34% and quitting harvest rates by 29% in response to wolf urine. In addition to leaving more food behind, foxes also responded to wolf urine by spending less time visiting food patches each day and altering their behaviour in order to compensate for the increased risk when foraging from patches. Thus, red foxes utilised olfaction to assess risk and experienced foraging costs due to the presence of a cue from gray wolves, Canis lupus. This study identifies behavioural mechanisms which may enable competing predators to coexist, and highlights the potential for additional ecosystem service pathways arising from the behaviour of large carnivores. Given the vulnerability of large carnivores to anthropogenic disturbance, a growing human population and intensifying resource consumption, it becomes increasingly important to understand ecological processes so that land can be managed appropriately.

Environmental effects are stronger than human effects on mammalian predator-prey relationships in arid Australian ecosystems

Climate (drought, rainfall), geology (habitat availability), land use change (provision of artificial waterpoints, introduction of livestock), invasive species (competition, predation), and direct human intervention (lethal control of top-predators) have each been identified as processes driving the sustainability of threatened fauna populations. We used a systematic combination of empirical observational studies and experimental manipulations to comprehensively evaluate the effects of these process on a model endangered rodent, dusky hopping-mice (Notomys fuscus). We established a large manipulative experiment in arid Australia, and collected information from relative abundance indices, camera traps, GPS-collared dingoes (Canis familiaris) and dingo scats, along with a range of related environmental data (e.g. rainfall, habitat type, distance to artificial water etc.). We show that hopping-mice populations were most strongly influenced by geological and climatic effects of resource availability and rainfall, and not land use, invasive species, or human effects of livestock grazing, waterpoint provision, or the lethal control of dingoes. Hopping-mice distribution declined along a geological gradient of more to less available hopping-mice habitat (sand dunes), and their abundance was driven by rainfall. Hopping-mice populations fluctuated independent of livestock presence, artificial waterpoint availability or repeated lethal dingo control. Hopping-mice populations appear to be limited first by habitat availability, then by food availability, then by predation. Contemporary top-predator control practices (for protection of livestock) have little influence on hopping-mice behaviour or population dynamics. Given our inability to constrain the effects of predation across broad scales, management actions focusing on increasing available food and habitat (e.g. alteration of fire and herbivory) may have a greater chance of improving the conservation status of hopping-mice and other small mammals in arid areas. Our study also reaffirms the importance of using systematic and experimental approaches to detect true drivers of population distribution and dynamics where multiple potential drivers operate simultaneously.